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Pollination is a key ecosystem service. Pollinators, however, are in decline and their service is increasingly threatened. The decline is driven by several factors, most of which are related to agricultural management. However, the complexity of the landscape system, consisting of both cropped and non cropped areas, makes it difficult to address or even quantify the role of farming practices in pollinator abundance. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to improve our understanding of the relationships between pollinator abundance and their habitat use. We intend to identify and quantify the driving environmental factors that determine pollinator abundance in agricultural landscapes on the crop and landscape scale. These information helps us to design algorithms that can be used as a basis for predicting pollinator abundance on agricultural fields. To integrate varying environmental conditions data sampling was performed on farms in three different regions in Germany. Pollinators were classified into different groups with three aggregation levels. We observed crop parameters as well as landscape parameters in the areas surrounding fields in addition to temporal aspects. Generalized linear models (GLMs) were then calculated. Our results showed that both crop and landscape parameters affect pollinator abundance on agricultural fields. However, the explanatory power of the included parameters varied strongly among the particular pollinator groups and between aggregation levels. Furthermore, differentiation between species groups improves the explanatory power compared to models that are more aggregated. We also found that the temporal match between main activity periods of the particular pollinator groups and resource supply by the crop species is a key factor when analysing pollinator abundance. In conclusion, we demonstrated that the assessment and support of pollination services should be carried out with regard to individual pollinator groups. When studying pollinator abundance, the crop as well as the landscape scale should be addressed. A range of different habitat requirements and different activity periods of the pollinator groups must be covered to maintain pollination services, and therefore both diverse landscapes and diverse crop rotations are of crucial importance. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Rhizosphere processes are highly dynamic in time and space and strongly depend on each other. Key factors influencing pH changes in the rhizosphere are root exudation, respiration, and nutrient supply, which are influenced by soil water content levels. In this study, we measured the real-time distribution of soil water, pH changes, and oxygen distribution in the rhizosphere of young maize plants using a recently developed imaging approach. Neutron radiography was used to capture the root system and soil water distribution, while fluorescence imaging was employed to map soil pH and soil oxygen changes. Germinated seeds of maize (Zea mays L.) were planted in glass rhizotrons equipped with pH and oxygen-sensitive sensor foils. After 20 d, the rhizotrons were wetted from the bottom and time-lapsed images via fluorescence and neutron imaging were taken during the subsequent day and night cycles for 5 d. We found higher water content and stronger acidification in the first 0.5 mm from the root surface compared to the bulk soil, which could be a consequence of root exudation. While lateral roots only slightly acidified their rhizosphere, crown roots induced stronger acidification of up to 1 pH unit. We observed changing oxygen patterns at different soil moisture conditions and increasing towards lateral as well as crown roots while extending laterally with ongoing water logging. Our work indicates that plants alter the rhizosphere pH and oxygen also depending on root type, which may indirectly arise also from differences in age and water content changes. The results presented here were possible only by combining different imaging techniques to examine profiles at the root-soil interface in a comprehensive way during wetting and drying.
Streams commonly respond to base-level fall by localizing erosion within steepened, convex knickzone reaches. Localized incision causes knickzone reaches to migrate upstream. Such migrating knickzones dictate the pace of landscape response to changes in tectonics or erosional efficiency and can help quantify the timing and source of base-level fall. Identification of knickzones typically requires individual selection of steepened reaches: a process that is tedious and subjective and has no efficient means to measure knickzone size. We construct an algorithm to automate this procedure by selecting the bounds of knickzone reaches in a -space (drainage-area normalized) framework. An automated feature calibrates algorithm parameters to a subset of knickzones handpicked by the user. The algorithm uses these parameters as consistent criteria to identify knickzones objectively, and then the algorithm measures the height, length, and slope of each knickzone reach. We test the algorithm on 1, 10, and 30m resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) of six catchments (trunk-stream lengths: 2.1-5.4km) on Santa Cruz Island, southern California. On the 1m DEM, algorithm-selected knickzones confirm 93% of handpicked knickzone positions (n=178) to a spatial accuracy of 100m, 88% to an accuracy within 50m, and 46% to an accuracy within 10m. Using 10 and 30m DEMs, accuracy is similar: 88-86% to 100m and 82% to 50m (n=38 and 36, respectively). The algorithm enables efficient regional comparison of the size and location of knickzones with geologic structures, mapped landforms, and hillslope morphology, thereby facilitating approaches to characterize the dynamics of transient landscapes. Plain Language Summary The shape of rivers reflects the environments that they flow through and the environments that they link together: mountains and oceans. Anywhere along the length of a river, changes in environmental conditions are propagated upstream and downstream as the river changes its morphology to match the new environmental conditions. Commonly, rivers steepen as land uplifts faster in regions of high tectonic convergence. The steepening of river gradients is propagated upstream and can be mapped to trace zones of high tectonic activity across landscapes and estimate the source and timing of environmental change. Such insights may indicate regions where earthquakes have become more frequent in the recent past and how rivers respond to these changes. In this submission, we detail an algorithm that can use digital topographic data (similar to google earth), to automatically map and measure anomalously steep river reaches across continental scales. This technology can highlight areas that have experienced recent sustained changes in environmental conditions, evident by changes in the morphology of rivers. Such environmental conditions could be changes in tectonic uplift and earthquake activity, changes in sea level, changes in land-use, or changes in climate, all factors that can produce measurable differences in river morphology over time.
Most of the deformation associated with the seismic cycle in subduction zones occurs offshore and has been therefore difficult to quantify with direct observations at millennial timescales. Here we study millennial deformation associated with an active splay-fault system in the Arauco Bay area off south central Chile. We describe hitherto unrecognized drowned shorelines using high-resolution multibeam bathymetry, geomorphic, sedimentologic, and paleontologic observations and quantify uplift rates using a Landscape Evolution Model. Along a margin-normal profile, uplift rates are 1.3m/ka near the edge of the continental shelf, 1.5m/ka at the emerged Santa Maria Island, -0.1m/ka at the center of the Arauco Bay, and 0.3m/ka in the mainland. The bathymetry images a complex pattern of folds and faults representing the surface expression of the crustal-scale Santa Maria splay-fault system. We modeled surface deformation using two different structural scenarios: deep-reaching normal faults and deep-reaching reverse faults with shallow extensional structures. Our preferred model comprises a blind reverse fault extending from 3km depth down to the plate interface at 16km that slips at a rate between 3.0 and 3.7m/ka. If all the splay-fault slip occurs during every great megathrust earthquake, with a recurrence of similar to 150-200years, the fault would slip similar to 0.5m per event, equivalent to a magnitude similar to 6.4 earthquake. However, if the splay-fault slips only with a megathrust earthquake every similar to 1000years, the fault would slip similar to 3.7m per event, equivalent to a magnitude similar to 7.5 earthquake.
Central Anatolia is a low-relief, high-elevation region where decadal-scale deformation rates estimated from space geodesy suggest low strain rates within a stiff microplate. However, numerous Quaternary faults have been mapped within this low-strain region and estimating their slip rate and seismic potential is important for hazard assessments in an area of increasing infrastructural development. Here we focus on the Sultanhani Fault (SF), which constitutes an integral part of the Eskisehir-Cihanbeyli Fault System, and use deformed maximum highstand shorelines of palaeo-lake Konya to estimate tectonic slip rates at millennial scale. Some of these shorelines were previously interpreted as fault scarps, but we provide conclusive evidence for their erosional origin. We found that shoreline-angle elevations estimated from differential GPS profiles record vertical displacements of 10.2 m across the SF. New radiocarbon ages of lacustrine molluscs suggest 22.4 m of relative lake-level fall between 22.1 +/- 0.3 and 21.7 +/- 0.4 cal. kaBP, constraining the timing of abrupt abandonment of the highstand shoreline. Models of lithospheric rebound associated with regressions of the Tuz Golu and Konya palaeolakes predict only similar to 1 m of regional-scale uplift across the Konya Basin. Dislocation models of displaced shorelines suggest fault-slip rates of 1.5 and 1.8 mm yr(-1) for planar and listric fault geometries, respectively, providing reasonable results for the latter. We found fault scarps in the Nasuhpinar mudflat that likely represent the most recent ground-breaking rupture of the SF, with an average vertical displacement of 1.2 +/- 0.5 m estimated from 54 topographic profiles, equivalent to a M similar to 6.5-6.9 earthquake based on empirical scaling laws. If such events were characteristic during the ultimate 21 ka, a relatively short recurrence time of similar to 800-900 yr would be needed to account for the millennial slip rate. Alternatively, the fault scarp at Nasuhpinar might represent a larger earthquake requiring more frequent smaller events to account for the millennial rate. The relatively fast slip rate of the SF over the past 21 ka is unlikely to have persisted over longer timescales and might reflect spatiotemporal variations in deformation rates within kinematically-linked fault systems within Central Anatolia, or a transient perturbation to the local stress field or fault strength. Such perturbation might have been related to climatically controlled changes in surface and near-surface loads and by interactions among the different tectonic processes that have been proposed to drive the overall slow uplift and associated extension in the Central Anatolian Plateau.
Tropical peatlands now emit hundreds of megatons of carbon dioxide per year because of human disruption of the feedbacks that link peat accumulation and groundwater hydrology. However, no quantitative theory has existed for how patterns of carbon storage and release accompanying growth and subsidence of tropical peatlands are affected by climate and disturbance. Using comprehensive data from a pristine peatland in Brunei Darussalam, we show how rainfall and groundwater flow determine a shape parameter (the Laplacian of the peat surface elevation) that specifies, under a given rainfall regime, the ultimate, stable morphology, and hence carbon storage, of a tropical peatland within a network of rivers or canals. We find that peatlands reach their ultimate shape first at the edges of peat domes where they are bounded by rivers, so that the rate of carbon uptake accompanying their growth is proportional to the area of the still-growing dome interior. We use this model to study how tropical peatland carbon storage and fluxes are controlled by changes in climate, sea level, and drainage networks. We find that fluctuations in net precipitation on timescales from hours to years can reduce long-term peat accumulation. Our mathematical and numerical models can be used to predict long-term effects of changes in temporal rainfall patterns and drainage networks on tropical peatland geomorphology and carbon storage.
Magnetic and electric field observations from the European Space Agency Swarm mission are used to report the direction of electromagnetic energy flux associated with equatorial plasma depletions. Contrary to expectations, the observations suggest a general interhemispheric Poynting flux rather than concurrent flows at both hemispheres toward or away from the equator. Of high interest is a particular behavior noticed over the region with the largest variation in the magnetic declination. This is a Poynting flux flowing mainly into the southern magnetic hemisphere about between 60 degrees W and 30 degrees E and into the northern magnetic hemisphere between 110 degrees W and 60 degrees W. The abrupt change in the flow direction at 60 degrees W is suggested to be caused by an asymmetry between the hemispheres on the ionospheric conductivity, likely due to the influence of thermospheric winds and the presence of the South Atlantic Anomaly.
Lakes are a ubiquitous landscape feature in northern permafrost regions. They have a strong impact on carbon, energy and water fluxes and can be quite responsive to climate change. The monitoring of lake change in northern high latitudes, at a sufficiently accurate spatial and temporal resolution, is crucial for understanding the underlying processes driving lake change. To date, lake change studies in permafrost regions were based on a variety of different sources, image acquisition periods and single snapshots, and localized analysis, which hinders the comparison of different regions. Here, we present a methodology based on machine-learning based classification of robust trends of multi-spectral indices of Landsat data (TM, ETM+, OLI) and object-based lake detection, to analyze and compare the individual, local and regional lake dynamics of four different study sites (Alaska North Slope, Western Alaska, Central Yakutia, Kolyma Lowland) in the northern permafrost zone from 1999 to 2014. Regional patterns of lake area change on the Alaska North Slope (-0.69%), Western Alaska (-2.82%), and Kolyma Lowland (-0.51%) largely include increases due to thermokarst lake expansion, but more dominant lake area losses due to catastrophic lake drainage events. In contrast, Central Yakutia showed a remarkable increase in lake area of 48.48%, likely resulting from warmer and wetter climate conditions over the latter half of the study period. Within all study regions, variability in lake dynamics was associated with differences in permafrost characteristics, landscape position (i.e., upland vs. lowland), and surface geology. With the global availability of Landsat data and a consistent methodology for processing the input data derived from robust trends of multi-spectral indices, we demonstrate a transferability, scalability and consistency of lake change analysis within the northern permafrost region.
Reliable flood risk analyses, including the estimation of damage, are an important prerequisite for efficient risk management. However, not much is known about flood damage processes affecting companies. Thus, we conduct a flood damage assessment of companies in Germany with regard to two aspects. First, we identify relevant damage-influencing variables. Second, we assess the prediction performance of the developed damage models with respect to the gain by using an increasing amount of training data and a sector-specific evaluation of the data. Random forests are trained with data from two postevent surveys after flood events occurring in the years 2002 and 2013. For a sector-specific consideration, the data set is split into four subsets corresponding to the manufacturing, commercial, financial, and service sectors. Further, separate models are derived for three different company assets: buildings, equipment, and goods and stock. Calculated variable importance values reveal different variable sets relevant for the damage estimation, indicating significant differences in the damage process for various company sectors and assets. With an increasing number of data used to build the models, prediction errors decrease. Yet the effect is rather small and seems to saturate for a data set size of several hundred observations. In contrast, the prediction improvement achieved by a sector-specific consideration is more distinct, especially for damage to equipment and goods and stock. Consequently, sector-specific data acquisition and a consideration of sector-specific company characteristics in future flood damage assessments is expected to improve the model performance more than a mere increase in data.
Past climatic change can be reconstructed from sedimentary archives by a number of proxies. However, few methods exist to directly estimate hydrological changes and even fewer result in quantitative data, impeding our understanding of the timing, magnitude and mechanisms of hydrological changes. Here we present a novel approach based on delta H-2 values of sedimentary lipid biomarkers in combination with plant physiological modeling to extract quantitative information on past changes in relative humidity. Our initial application to an annually laminated lacustrine sediment sequence from western Europe deposited during the Younger Dryas cold period revealed relative humidity changes of up to 15% over sub-centennial timescales, leading to major ecosystem changes, in agreement with palynological data from the region. We show that by combining organic geochemical methods and mechanistic plant physiological models on well characterized lacustrine archives it is possible to extract quantitative ecohydrological parameters from sedimentary lipid biomarker delta H-2 data.
Urban climate is determined by a variety of factors, whose knowledge can help to attenuate heat stress in the context of ongoing urbanization and climate change. We study the influence of city size and urban form on the Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon in Europe and find a complex interplay between UHI intensity and city size, fractality, and anisometry. Due to correlations among these urban factors, interactions in the multi-linear regression need to be taken into account. We find that among the largest 5,000 cities, the UHI intensity increases with the logarithm of the city size and with the fractal dimension, but decreases with the logarithm of the anisometry. Typically, the size has the strongest influence, followed by the compactness, and the smallest is the influence of the degree to which the cities stretch. Accordingly, from the point of view of UHI alleviation, small, disperse, and stretched cities are preferable. However, such recommendations need to be balanced against e.g. positive agglomeration effects of large cities. Therefore, trade-offs must be made regarding local and global aims.
Prediction of the area affected by earthquake-induced landsliding based on seismological parameters
(2017)
We present an analytical, seismologically consistent expression for the surface area of the region within which most landslides triggered by an earthquake are located (landslide distribution area). This expression is based on scaling laws relating seismic moment, source depth, and focal mechanism with ground shaking and fault rupture length and assumes a globally constant threshold of acceleration for onset of systematic mass wasting. The seismological assumptions are identical to those recently used to propose a seismologically consistent expression for the total volume and area of landslides triggered by an earthquake. To test the accuracy of the model we gathered geophysical information and estimates of the landslide distribution area for 83 earthquakes. To reduce uncertainties and inconsistencies in the estimation of the landslide distribution area, we propose an objective definition based on the shortest distance from the seismic wave emission line containing 95% of the total landslide area. Without any empirical calibration the model explains 56% of the variance in our dataset, and predicts 35 to 49 out of 83 cases within a factor of 2, depending on how we account for uncertainties on the seismic source depth. For most cases with comprehensive landslide inventories we show that our prediction compares well with the smallest region around the fault containing 95% of the total landslide area. Aspects ignored by the model that could explain the residuals include local variations of the threshold of acceleration and processes modulating the surface ground shaking, such as the distribution of seismic energy release on the fault plane, the dynamic stress drop, and rupture directivity. Nevertheless, its simplicity and first-order accuracy suggest that the model can yield plausible and useful estimates of the landslide distribution area in near-real time, with earthquake parameters issued by standard detection routines.
In 2009, a group of prominent Earth scientists introduced the "planetary boundaries" (PB) framework: they suggested nine global control variables, and defined corresponding "thresholds which, if crossed, could generate unacceptable environmental change". The concept builds on systems theory, and views Earth as a complex adaptive system in which anthropogenic disturbances may trigger nonlinear, abrupt, and irreversible changes at the global scale, and "push the Earth system outside the stable environmental state of the Holocene". While the idea has been remarkably successful in both science and policy circles, it has also raised fundamental concerns, as the majority of suggested processes and their corresponding planetary boundaries do not operate at the global scale, and thus apparently lack the potential to trigger abrupt planetary changes. This paper picks up the debate with specific regard to the planetary boundary on "global freshwater use". While the bio-physical impacts of excessive water consumption are typically confined to the river basin scale, the PB proponents argue that water-induced environmental disasters could build up to planetary-scale feedbacks and system failures. So far, however, no evidence has been presented to corroborate that hypothesis. Furthermore, no coherent approach has been presented to what extent a planetary threshold value could reflect the risk of regional environmental disaster. To be sure, the PB framework was revised in 2015, extending the planetary freshwater boundary with a set of basin-level boundaries inferred from environmental water flow assumptions. Yet, no new evidence was presented, either with respect to the ability of those basin-level boundaries to reflect the risk of regional regime shifts or with respect to a potential mechanism linking river basins to the planetary scale. So while the idea of a planetary boundary on freshwater use appears intriguing, the line of arguments presented so far remains speculative and implicatory. As long as Earth system science does not present compelling evidence, the exercise of assigning actual numbers to such a boundary is arbitrary, premature, and misleading. Taken as a basis for waterrelated policy and management decisions, though, the idea transforms from misleading to dangerous, as it implies that we can globally offset water-related environmental impacts. A planetary boundary on freshwater use should thus be disapproved and actively refuted by the hydrological and water resources community.
The application of heat as a hydrological tracer has become a standard method for quantifying water fluxes between groundwater and surface water. The typical application is to estimate vertical water fluxes in the shallow subsurface beneath streams or lakes. For this purpose, time series of temperatures in the surface water and in the sediment are measured and evaluated by a vertical 1D representation of heat transport by advection and conduction. Several analytical solutions exist to calculate the vertical water flux from the measured temperatures. Although analytical solutions can be easily implemented, they are restricted to specific boundary conditions such as a sinusoidal upper temperature boundary. Numerical solutions offer higher flexibility in the selection of the boundary conditions. This, in turn, reduces the effort of data preprocessing, such as the extraction of the diurnal temperature variation from the raw data. Here, we present software to estimate water fluxes based on temperaturesFLUX-BOT. FLUX-BOT is a numerical code written in MATLAB that calculates vertical water fluxes in saturated sediments based on the inversion of measured temperature time series observed at multiple depths. FLUX-BOT applies a centred Crank-Nicolson implicit finite difference scheme to solve the one-dimensional heat advection-conduction equation. FLUX-BOT includes functions for the inverse numerical routines, functions for visualizing the results, and a function for performing uncertainty analysis. We present applications of FLUX-BOT to synthetic and to real temperature data to demonstrate its performance.
Rotations of the principal stress axes are observed as a result of fluid injection into reservoirs. We use a generic, fully coupled 3-D thermo-hydro-mechanical model to investigate systematically the dependence of this stress rotation on different reservoir properties and injection scenarios. We find that permeability, injection rate, and initial differential stress are the key factors, while other reservoir properties only play a negligible role. In particular, we find that thermal effects do not significantly contribute to stress rotations. For reservoir types with usual differential stress and reservoir treatment the occurrence of significant stress rotations is limited to reservoirs with a permeability of less than approximately 10(-12)m(2). Higher permeability effectively prevents stress rotations to occur. Thus, according to these general findings, the observed principal stress axes rotation can be used as a proxy of the initial differential stress provided that rock permeability and fluid injection rate are known a priori.
The study deals with the identification and characterization of rapid subsurface flow structures through pedo- and geo-physical measurements and irrigation experiments at the point, plot and hillslope scale. Our investigation of flow-relevant structures and hydrological responses refers to the general interplay of form and function, respectively. To obtain a holistic picture of the subsurface, a large set of different laboratory, exploratory and experimental methods was used at the different scales. For exploration these methods included drilled soil core profiles, in situ measurements of infiltration capacity and saturated hydraulic conductivity, and laboratory analyses of soil water retention and saturated hydraulic conductivity. The irrigation experiments at the plot scale were monitored through a combination of dye tracer, salt tracer, soil moisture dynamics, and 3-D time-lapse ground penetrating radar (GPR) methods. At the hillslope scale the subsurface was explored by a 3-D GPR survey. A natural storm event and an irrigation experiment were monitored by a dense network of soil moisture observations and a cascade of 2-D time-lapse GPR "trenches". We show that the shift between activated and non-activated state of the flow paths is needed to distinguish structures from overall heterogeneity. Pedo-physical analyses of point-scale samples are the basis for sub-scale structure inference. At the plot and hillslope scale 3-D and 2-D time-lapse GPR applications are successfully employed as non-invasive means to image subsurface response patterns and to identify flow-relevant paths. Tracer recovery and soil water responses from irrigation experiments deliver a consistent estimate of response velocities. The combined observation of form and function under active conditions provides the means to localize and characterize the structures (this study) and the hydrological processes (companion study Angermann et al., 2017, this issue).
The phrase form and function was established in architecture and biology and refers to the idea that form and functionality are closely correlated, influence each other, and co-evolve. We suggest transferring this idea to hydrological systems to separate and analyze their two main characteristics: their form, which is equivalent to the spatial structure and static properties, and their function, equivalent to internal responses and hydrological behavior. While this approach is not particularly new to hydrological field research, we want to employ this concept to explicitly pursue the question of what information is most advantageous to understand a hydrological system. We applied this concept to subsurface flow within a hillslope, with a methodological focus on function: we conducted observations during a natural storm event and followed this with a hillslope-scale irrigation experiment. The results are used to infer hydrological processes of the monitored system. Based on these findings, the explanatory power and conclusiveness of the data are discussed. The measurements included basic hydrological monitoring methods, like piezometers, soil moisture, and discharge measurements. These were accompanied by isotope sampling and a novel application of 2-D time-lapse GPR (ground-penetrating radar). The main finding regarding the processes in the hillslope was that preferential flow paths were established quickly, despite unsaturated conditions. These flow paths also caused a detectable signal in the catchment response following a natural rainfall event, showing that these processes are relevant also at the catchment scale. Thus, we conclude that response observations (dynamics and patterns, i.e., indicators of function) were well suited to describing processes at the observational scale. Especially the use of 2-D time-lapse GPR measurements, providing detailed subsurface response patterns, as well as the combination of stream-centered and hillslope-centered approaches, allowed us to link processes and put them in a larger context. Transfer to other scales beyond observational scale and generalizations, however, rely on the knowledge of structures (form) and remain speculative. The complementary approach with a methodological focus on form (i.e., structure exploration) is presented and discussed in the companion paper by Jackisch et al. (2017).
Water infiltration in soil is not only affected by the inherent heterogeneities of soil, but even more by the interaction with plant roots and their water uptake. Neutron tomography is a unique non-invasive 3D tool to visualize plant root systems together with the soil water distribution in situ. So far, acquisition times in the range of hours have been the major limitation for imaging 3D water dynamics. Implementing an alternative acquisition procedure we boosted the speed of acquisition capturing an entire tomogram within 10 s. This allows, for the first time, tracking of a water front ascending in a rooted soil column upon infiltration of deuterated water time-resolved in 3D. Image quality and resolution could be sustained to a level allowing for capturing the root system in high detail. Good signal-to-noise ratio and contrast were the key to visualize dynamic changes in water content and to localize the root uptake. We demonstrated the ability of ultra-fast tomography to quantitatively image quick changes of water content in the rhizosphere and outlined the value of such imaging data for 3D water uptake modelling. The presented method paves the way for time-resolved studies of various 3D flow and transport phenomena in porous systems.
The paleoclimate during the Early Eocene in Maritime Antarctica is characterized by cool conditions without a pronounced dry season. Soils formed on volcanic material under such climate conditions in modern analogue environments are usually Andosols rich in nanocrystalline minerals without pedogenic smectite. The paleosols formed on volcanic material on King Georges Island are covered by basalts, dated by 6 new 40Ar/39Ar datings to 51-48 Ma, and are rich in smectite. A pedogenic origin of the smectites would suggest a semi-arid rather than a wet non-seasonal humid paleoclimate. To investigate the origin of the smectites in these paleosols we used X-ray diffraction and microscopic techniques. Minor mineralogical changes between the volcanic parent material and the paleosols and a homogenous distribution of smectites throughout the paleosol horizons indicate that these smectites were mainly inherited from the pyroclastic parent material, which was altered prior to surficial weathering. Nevertheless, the mineralogical properties, such as degree of crystallinity and octahedral site occupancy, of these smectites were modified during the ancient soil formation. Our findings highlight that trioctahedral smectites were a product of deuteric alteration of pyroclastic rocks and were progressively transformed to dioctahedral smectites during weathering in a soil environment on King George Island.
Vast areas of the terrestrial Subarctic and Arctic are underlain by permafrost. Landscape evolution is therefore largely controlled by climate-driven periglacial processes. The response of the frozen ground to late Quaternary warm and cold stages is preserved in permafrost sequences, and deducible by multi-proxy palaeoenvironmental approaches. Here, we analyse radiocarbon-dated mid-Wisconsin Interstadial and Holocene lacustrine deposits preserved in the Kit-1 pingo permafrost sequence combined with water and surface sediment samples from nine modern water bodies on Seward Peninsula (NW Alaska) to reconstruct thermokarst dynamics and determine major abiotic factors that controlled the aquatic ecosystem variability. Our methods comprise taxonomical diatom analyses as well as Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA) and Redundancy Analysis (RDA). Our results show, that the fossil diatom record reflects thermokarst lake succession since about 42 C-14 kyr BP. Different thermolcarst lake stages during the mid-Wisconsin Interstadial, the late Wisconsin and the early Holocene are mirrored by changes in diatom abundance, diversity, and ecology. We interpret the taxonomical changes in the fossil diatom assemblages in combination with both modern diatom data from surrounding ponds and existing micropalaeontological, sedimentological and mineralogical data from the pingo sequence. A diatom based quantitative reconstruction of lake water pH indicates changing lake environments during mid-Wisconsin to early Holocene stages. Mineralogical analyses indicate presence of tephra fallout and its impact on fossil diatom communities. Our comparison of modern and fossil diatom communities shows the highest floristic similarity of modern polygon ponds to the corresponding initial (shallow water) development stages of thermolcarst lakes. We conclude, that mid-Wisconsin thermokarst processes in the study area could establish during relatively warm interstadial climate conditions accompanied by increased precipitation due to approaching coasts, while still high continentality and hence high seasonal temperature gradients led to warm summers in the central part of Beringia. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The Himalaya has a major influence on global and regional climate, in particular on the Asian monsoon system. The foreland basin of the Himalaya contains a record of tectonics and paleoclimate since the Miocene. Previous work on the evolution of vegetation and climate has focused on the central and western Himalaya, where a shift from C3 to C4 vegetation has been observed at similar to 7 Ma and linked to increased seasonality, but the climatic evolution of the eastern part of the orogen is less well understood. In order to track vegetation as a marker of monsoon intensity and seasonality, we analyzed delta C-13 and 8180 values of soil carbonate and associated delta C-13 values of bulk organic carbon from previously dated sedimentary sections exposing the syn-orogenic detrital Dharamsala and Siwalik Groups in the west, and, for the first time, the Siwalik Group in the east of the Himalayan foreland basin. Sedimentary records span from 20 to 1 Myr in the west (Joginder Nagar, Jawalamukhi, and Haripur Kolar sections) and from 13 to 1 Myr in the east (Kameng section), respectively. The presence of soil carbonate in the west and its absence in the east is a first indication of long-term lateral climatic variation, as soil carbonate requires seasonally arid conditions to develop. delta C-13 values in soil carbonate show a shift from around -10 parts per thousand to -2 parts per thousand at similar to 7 Ma in the west, which is confirmed by delta C-13 analyses on bulk organic carbon that show a shift from around -23 parts per thousand to -19 parts per thousand at the same time. Such a shift in isotopic values is likely to be associated with a change from C3 to C4 vegetation. In contrast, delta C-13 values of bulk organic carbon remain at 23 parts per thousand o in the east. Thus, our data show that the current east -west variation in climate was established at similar to 7 Ma. We propose that the regional change towards a more seasonal climate in the west is linked to a decrease of the influence of the Westerlies, delivering less winter precipitation to the western Himalaya, while the east remained annually humid due to its proximity to the monsoonal moisture source. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Located along the Izmir-Ankara-Erzincan Suture (IAES), the Maastrichtian - Paleogene Orhaniye Basin has yielded a highly enigmatic-yet poorly dated- Paleogene mammal fauna, the endemic character of which has suggested high faunal provincialism associated with paleogeographic isolation of the Anatolian landmass during the early Cenozoic. Despite its biogeographic significance, the tectono-stratigraphic history of the Orhaniye Basin has been poorly documented; Here, we combine sedimentary, magnetostratigraphic, and geochronological data to infer the chronology and depositional history of the Orhaniye Basin. We then assess how our new data and interpretations for the Orhaniye Basin impact (1) the timing and mechanisms of seaway closure along the IAES and (2) the biogeographic evolution of Anatolia. Our results show that the Orhaniye Basin initially developed as a forearc basin during the Maastrichtian, before shifting to a retroarc foreland basin setting sometime between the early Paleocene and 44 Ma. This chronology supports a two-step scenario for the assemblage of the central Anatolian landmass, with incipient collision during the Paleocene - Early Eocene and final seaway retreat along the IAES during the earliest Late Eocene after the last marine incursion into the foreland basin. Our dating for the Orhaniye mammal fauna (44-43 Ma) indicates the persistence of faunal endemism in northern Anatolia until at least the late Lutetian despite the advanced stage of IAES closure. The tectonic evolution of dispersal corridors linking northern Anatolia with adjacent parts of Eurasia was not directly associated with IAES closure and consecutive uplifts, but rather with the build-up of continental bridges on the margins of Anatolia, in the Alpine and Tibetan-Himalayan orogens.
Sedimentary basins in the interior of orogenic plateaus can provide unique insights into the early history of plateau evolution and related geodynamic processes. The northern sectors of the Iranian Plateau of the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone offer the unique possibility to study middle-late Miocene terrestrial clastic and volcaniclastic sediments that allow assessing the nascent stages of collisional plateau formation. In particular, these sedimentary archives allow investigating several debated and poorly understood issues associated with the long-term evolution of the Iranian Plateau, including the regional spatio-temporal characteristics of sedimentation and deformation and the mechanisms of plateau growth. We document that middle-late Miocene crustal shortening and thickening processes led to the growth of a basement-cored range (Takab Range Complex) in the interior of the plateau. This triggered the development of a foreland-basin (Great Pari Basin) to the east between 16.5 and 10.7Ma. By 10.7Ma, a fast progradation of conglomerates over the foreland strata occurred, most likely during a decrease in flexural subsidence triggered by rock uplift along an intraforeland basement-cored range (Mahneshan Range Complex). This was in turn followed by the final incorporation of the foreland deposits into the orogenic system and ensuing compartmentalization of the formerly contiguous foreland into several intermontane basins. Overall, our data suggest that shortening and thickening processes led to the outward and vertical growth of the northern sectors of the Iranian Plateau starting from the middle Miocene. This implies that mantle-flow processes may have had a limited contribution toward building the Iranian Plateau in NW Iran.
The concept of a Global Monsoon (GM) has been proposed based on modern precipitation observations, but its application over a wide range of temporal scales is still under debate. Here, we present a synthesis of 268 continental paleo-moisture records collected from monsoonal systems in the Eastern Hemisphere, including the East Asian Monsoon (EAsM), the Indian Monsoon (IM), the East African Monsoon (EAfM), and the Australian Monsoon (AuM) covering the last 18,000 years. The overall pattern of late Glacial to Holocene moisture change is consistent with those inferred from ice cores and marine records. With respect to the last 10,000 years (10 ka), i.e. a period that has high spatial coverage, a Fuzzy c-Means clustering analysis of the moisture index records together with "Xie-Beni" index reveals four clusters of our data set. The paleoclimatic meaning of each cluster is interpreted considering the temporal evolution and spatial distribution patterns. The major trend in the tropical AuM, EAfM, and IM regions is a gradual decrease in moisture conditions since the early Holocene. Moisture changes in the EAsM regions show maximum index values between 8 and 6 ka. However, records located in nearby subtropical areas, i.e. in regions not influenced by the intertropical convergence zone, show an opposite trend compared to the tropical monsoon regions (AuM, EAfM and IM), i.e. a gradual increase. Analyses of modern meteorological data reveal the same spatial patterns as in the paleoclimate records such that, in times of overall monsoon strengthening, lower precipitation rates are observed in the nearby subtropical areas. We explain this pattern as the effect of a strong monsoon circulation suppressing air uplift in nearby subtropical areas, and hence hindering precipitation. By analogy to the modern system, this would mean that during the early Holocene strong monsoon period, the intensified ascending airflows within the monsoon domains led to relatively weaker ascending or even descending airflows in the adjacent subtropical regions, resulting in a precipitation deficit compared to the late Holocene. Our conceptual model therefore integrates regionally contrasting moisture changes into the Global Monsoon hypothesis. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Low-relief plateaus separated by deeply incised fjords are hallmarks of glaciated, passive continental margins. Spectacular examples fringe the once ice-covered North Atlantic coasts of Greenland, Norway and Canada, but low-relief plateau landscapes also underlie present-day ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland. Dissected plateaus have long been viewed as the outcome of selective linear erosion by ice sheets that focus incision in glacial troughs, leaving the intervening landscapes essentially unaffected. According to this hypothesis, the plateaus are remnants of preglacial low-relief topography. However, here we use computational experiments to show that, like fjords, plateaus are emergent properties of long-term ice-sheet erosion. Ice sheets can either increase or decrease subglacial relief depending on the wavelength of the underlying topography, and plateau topography arises dynamically from evolving feedbacks between topography, ice dynamics and erosion over million-year timescales. This new mechanistic explanation for plateau formation opens the possibility of plateaus contributing significantly to accelerated sediment flux at the onset of the late Cenozoic glaciations, before becoming stable later in the Quaternary.
Radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence dating of sediments from Lake Karakul, Tajikistan
(2017)
Lake Karakul in the eastern Pamirs is a large and closed-basin lake in a partly glaciated catchment. Two parallel sediment cores were collected from 12 m water depth. The cores were correlated using XRF analysis and dated using radiocarbon and OSL techniques. The age results of the two dating methods are generally in agreement. The correlated composite core of 12.26 m length represents continuous accumulation of sediments in the lake basin since 31 ka. The lake reservoir effect (LRE) remained relatively constant over this period. High sediment accumulation rates (SedARs) were recorded before 23 ka and after 6.5 ka. The relatively close position of the coring location near the eastern shore of the lake implies that high SedARs resulted from low lake levels. Thus, high SedARs and lower lake levels before 23 ka probably reflect cold and dry climate conditions that inhibited the arrival of moist air at high elevation in the eastern Pamirs. Low lake levels after 6.5 ka were probably caused by declining temperatures after the warmer early Holocene, which had caused a reduction in water resources stored as snow, ice and frozen ground in the catchment. Low SedARs during 23-6.5 ka suggest increased lake levels in Lake Karakul. A short-lived increase of SedARs at 15 ka probably corresponds to the rapid melting of glaciers in the Karakul catchment during the Greenland Interstadial le, shortly after glaciers in the catchment had reached their maximum extents. The sediment cores from Lake Karakul represent an important climate archive with robust chronology for the last glacial interglacial cycle from Central Asia. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
This study demonstrates the potential of using single-pass TanDEM-X (TDX) radar imagery to analyse inter- and intra-annual glacier changes in mountainous terrain. Based on SAR images acquired in February 2012, March 2013 and November 2013 over the Inylchek Glacier, Kyrgyzstan, we discuss in detail the processing steps required to generate three reliable digital elevation models (DEMs) with a spatial resolution of 10 m that can be used for glacial mass balance studies. We describe the interferometric processing steps and the influence of a priori elevation information that is required to model long wavelength topographic effects. We also focus on DEM alignment to allow optimal DEM comparisons and on the effects of radar signal penetration on ice and snow surface elevations. We finally compare glacier elevation changes between the three TDX DEMs and the C-band shuttle radar topography mission (SRTM) DEM from February 2000. We introduce a new approach for glacier elevation change calculations that depends on the elevation and slope of the terrain. We highlight the superior quality of the TDX DEMs compared to the SRTM DEM, describe remaining DEM uncertainties and discuss the limitations that arise due to the side-looking nature of the radar sensor. (C) 2017 International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Inc. (ISPRS). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
This study examines the characteristics of drought in the Volta River Basin (VRB), investigates the influence of drought on the streamflow, and projects the impacts of future climate change on the drought. A combination of observation data and regional climate simulations of past and future climates (1970-2013, 2046-2065, and 2081-2100) were analyzed for the study. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (SPEI) were used to characterize drought while the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) were used to quantify runoff. Results of the study show that the historical pattern of drought is generally consistent with previous studies over the Basin and most part of West Africa. RCA ensemble medians (RMED) give realistic simulations of drought characteristics and area extent over the Basin and the sub-catchments in the past climate. Generally, an increase in drought intensity and spatial extent are projected over VRB for SPEI and SPI, but the magnitude of increase is higher with SPEI than with SPI. Drought frequency (events per decade) may be magnified by a factor of 1.2, (2046-2065) to 1.6 (2081-2100) compared to the present day episodes in the basin. The coupling between streamflow and drought episodes was very strong (P < 0.05) for the 1-16-year band before the 1970 but showed strong correlation all through the time series period for the 4-8 -years band. Runoff was highly sensitive to precipitation in the VRB and a 2-3 month time lag was found between drought indices and streamflow in the Volta River Basin. Results of this study may guide policymakers in planning how to minimize the negative impacts of future climate change that could have consequences on agriculture, water resources and energy supply.
We use recently deployed seismological arrays in Africa to sample a 2D cross section through the mantle down to the core-mantle boundary (CMB). By making use of travel-time residuals of S, ScS, and SKS phases, a new shear-velocity model of the African low-velocity zone (ALVZ) is derived. Our model suggests between 1.2% shear-velocity reduction at the top and 5% at the bottom with respect to 1D reference models. The average reduction over the whole low-velocity zone (LVZ) amounts to 2% in the presented model and is therefore about twice as strong as values found in global tomographic models. The top of the LVZ reaches up to 1200-km depth, and its lateral extent at the CMB is about 35 degrees. We propose the existence of a gap of 300 km, splitting the structure into two blocks. Our results are based on remarkable differences in SK(K) S travel-time residuals over a few degrees distance. The complexity of the structure could provide a key to an improved understanding of the deep-mantle LVZ dynamics and composition by comparison to geodynamic models. The gap in the model might suggest that the 2D cross section is cutting through a 3D indentation in the boundary of the ALVZ but may also be interpreted as a sign of two individual plumes, rather than one large homogeneous upwelling.
Testing socio-cultural valuation methods of ecosystem services to explain land use preferences
(2017)
Socio-cultural valuation still emerges as a methodological field in ecosystem service (ES) research and until now lacks consistent formalisation and balanced application in ES assessments. In this study, we examine the explanatory value of ES values for land use preferences. We use 563 responses to a survey about the Pentland Hills regional park in Scotland. Specifically, we aim to (1) identify clusters of land use preferences by using a novel visualisation tool, (2) test if socio-cultural values of ESs or (3) user characteristics are linked with land use preferences, and (4) determine whether both socio-cultural values of ESs and user characteristics can predict land use preferences. Our results suggest that there are five groups of people with different land use preferences, ranging from forest and nature enthusiasts to traditionalists, multi-functionalists and recreation seekers. Rating and weighting of ESs and user characteristics were associated with different clusters. Neither socio-cultural values nor user characteristics were suitable predictors for land use preferences. While several studies have explored land use preferences by identifying socio-cultural values in the past, our findings imply that in this case study ES values inform about general perceptions but do not replace the assessment of land use preferences. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license.
The characteristics of a landscape pose essential factors for hydrological processes. Therefore, an adequate representation of the landscape of a catchment in hydrological models is vital. However, many of such models exist differing, amongst others, in spatial concept and discretisation. The latter constitutes an essential pre-processing step, for which many different algorithms along with numerous software implementations exist. In that context, existing solutions are often model specific, commercial, or depend on commercial back-end software, and allow only a limited or no workflow automation at all. Consequently, a new package for the scientific software and scripting environment R, called lumpR, was developed. lumpR employs an algorithm for hillslope-based landscape discretisation directed to large-scale application via a hierarchical multi-scale approach. The package addresses existing limitations as it is free and open source, easily extendible to other hydrological models, and the workflow can be fully automated. Moreover, it is user-friendly as the direct coupling to a GIS allows for immediate visual inspection and manual adjustment. Sufficient control is furthermore retained via parameter specification and the option to include expert knowledge. Conversely, completely automatic operation also allows for extensive analysis of aspects related to landscape discretisation. In a case study, the application of the package is presented. A sensitivity analysis of the most important discretisation parameters demonstrates its efficient workflow automation. Considering multiple streamflow metrics, the employed model proved reasonably robust to the discretisation parameters. However, parameters determining the sizes of subbasins and hillslopes proved to be more important than the others, including the number of representative hillslopes, the number of attributes employed for the lumping algorithm, and the number of sub-discretisations of the representative hillslopes.
We investigated chironomid assemblages of a well-dated sediment core from a small seepage lake situated at the eastern slope of the Central Kamchatka Mountain Chain, Far East Russia. The chironomid fauna of the investigated Sigrid Lake is dominated by littoral taxa that are sensitive to fluctuations of the water level. Two groups of taxa interchangeably dominate the record responding to the changes in the lake environment during the past 2800 years. The first group of littoral phytophilic taxa includes Psectrocladius sordidellus-type, Corynoneura arctica-type and Dicrotendipes nervosus-type. The abundances of the taxa from this group have the strongest influence on the variations of PCA 1, and these taxa mostly correspond to low water levels, moderate temperatures and slightly acidified conditions. The second group of taxa includes Microtendipes pedellus-type, Tanytarsus lugens-type, and Tanytarsus pallidicornistype. The variations in the abundances of these taxa, and especially of M. pedellus-type, are in accordance with PCA 2 and correspond to the higher water level in the lake, more oligotrophic and neutral pH conditions. Water depths (WD) were reconstructed, using a modern chironomid-based temperature and water depth calibration data set (training set) and inference model from East Siberia (Nazarova et al., 2011). Mean July air temperatures (T July) were inferred using a chironomid-based temperature inference model based on a modern calibration data set for the Far East (Nazarova et al., 2015). The application of transfer functions resulted in reconstructed T July fluctuations of approximately 3 degrees C over the last 2800 years. Low temperatures (11.0-12.0 degrees C) were reconstructed for the periods between ca 1700 and 1500 cal yr BP (corresponding to the Kofun cold stage) and between ca 1200 and 150 cal yr BP (partly corresponding to the Little Ice Age [LIA]). Warm periods (modern T July or higher) were reconstructed for the periods between ca 2700 and 1800 cal yr BP, 1500 and 1300 cal yr BP and after 150 cal yr BP. WD reconstruction revealed that the lake level was lower than its present level at the beginning of the record between ca 2600 and 2300 cal yr BP and ca 550 cal yr BP. Between ca 2300 and 700 cal yr BP as well as between 450 and 150 cal yr BP, the lake level was higher than it is today, most probably reflecting more humid conditions. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.
In order to understand present day earthquake kinematics at the Indian plate boundary, we analyse seismic broadband data recorded between 2007 and 2015 by the regional network in the Garhwal-Kumaun region, northwest Himalaya. We first estimate a local 1-D velocity model for the computation of reliable Green's functions, based on 2837 P-wave and 2680 S-wave arrivals from 251 well located earthquakes. The resulting 1-D crustal structure yields a 4-layer velocity model down to the depths of 20 km. A fifth homogeneous layer extends down to 46 km, constraining the Moho using travel-time distance curve method. We then employ a multistep moment tensor (MT) inversion algorithm to infer seismic moment tensors of 11 moderate earthquakes with Mw magnitude in the range 4.0–5.0. The method provides a fast MT inversion for future monitoring of local seismicity, since Green's functions database has been prepared. To further support the moment tensor solutions, we additionally model P phase beams at seismic arrays at teleseismic distances. The MT inversion result reveals the presence of dominant thrust fault kinematics persisting along the Himalayan belt. Shallow low and high angle thrust faulting is the dominating mechanism in the Garhwal-Kumaun Himalaya. The centroid depths for these moderate earthquakes are shallow between 1 and 12 km. The beam modeling result confirm hypocentral depth estimates between 1 and 7 km. The updated seismicity, constrained source mechanism and depth results indicate typical setting of duplexes above the mid crustal ramp where slip is confirmed along out-of-sequence thrusting. The involvement of Tons thrust sheet in out-of-sequence thrusting indicate Tons thrust to be the principal active thrust at shallow depth in the Himalayan region. Our results thus support the critical taper wedge theory, where we infer the microseismicity cluster as a result of intense activity within the Lesser Himalayan Duplex (LHD) system.
Preceramic human skeletal remains preserved in submerged caves near Tulum in the Mexican state of Quintana Roo, Mexico, reveal conflicting results regarding C-14 dating. Here we use U-series techniques for dating a stalagmite overgrowing the pelvis of a human skeleton discovered in the submerged Chan Hol cave. The oldest closed system U/Th age comes from around 21 mm above the pelvis defining the terminus ante quem for the pelvis to 11311 +/- 370 y BP. However, the skeleton might be considerable older, probably as old as 13 ky BP as indicated by the speleothem stable isotope data. The Chan Hol individual confirms a late Pleistocene settling of Mesoamerica and represents one of the oldest human osteological remains in America.
Large-scale commercial cropping of soybeans expanded in the tropical Amazon and Cerrado biomes of Brazil after 1990. More recently, cropping intensified from single-cropping of soybeans to double-cropping of soybeans with corn or cotton. Cropland expansion and intensification, and the accompanying use of mineral fertilizers, raise concerns about whether nutrient runoff and impacts to surface waters will be similar to those experienced in commercial cropland regions at temperate latitudes. We quantified water infiltration through soils, water yield, and streamwater chemistry in watersheds draining native tropical forest and single-and double-cropped areas on the level, deep, highly weathered soils where cropland expansion and intensification typically occurs. Although water yield increased four-fold from croplands, streamwater chemistry remained largely unchanged. Soil characteristics exerted important control over the movement of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) into streams. High soil infiltration rates prevented surface erosion and movement of particulate P, while P fixation in surface soils restricted P movement to deeper soil layers. Nitrogen retention in deep soils, likely by anion exchange, also appeared to limit N leaching and export in streamwater from both single-and double-cropped watersheds that received nitrogen fertilizer. These mechanisms led to lower streamwater P and N concentrations and lower watershed N and P export than would be expected, based on studies from temperate croplands with similar cropping and fertilizer application practices.
Understanding how Earth-surface processes respond to past climatic perturbations is crucial for making informed predictions about future impacts of climate change on sediment "uxes. Sedimentary records provide the archives for inferring these processes, but their interpretation is compromised by our incomplete understanding of how sediment-routing systems respond to millennial-scale climate cycles. We analyzed seven sediment cores recovered from marine turbidite depositional sites along the Chile continental margin. The sites span a pronounced arid-to-humid gradient with variable relief and related sediment connectivity of terrestrial and marine environments. These sites allowed us to study event related depositional processes in different climatic and geomorphic settings from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present day. The three sites reveal a steep decline of turbidite deposition during deglaciation. High rates of sea-level rise postdate the decline in turbidite deposition. Comparison with paleoclimate proxies documents that the spatio-temporal sedimentary pattern rather mirrors the deglacial humidity decrease and concomitant warming with no resolvable lag times. Our results let us infer that declining deglacial humidity decreased "uvial sediment supply. This signal propagated rapidly through the highly connected systems into the marine sink in north-central Chile. In contrast, in south-central Chile, connectivity between the Andean erosional zone and the "uvial transfer zone probably decreased abruptly by sediment trapping in piedmont lakes related to deglaciation, resulting in a sudden decrease of sediment supply to the ocean. Additionally, reduced moisture supply may have contributed to the rapid decline of turbidite deposition. These different causes result in similar depositional patterns in the marine sinks. We conclude that turbiditic strata may constitute reliable recorders of climate change across a wide range of climatic zones and geomorphic conditions. However, the underlying causes for similar signal manifestations in the sinks may differ, ranging from maintained high system connectivity to abrupt connectivity loss. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Fluvial fill terraces in intermontane basins are valuable geomorphic archives that can record tectonically and/or climatically driven changes of the Earth-surface process system. However, often the preservation of fill terrace sequences is incomplete and/or they may form far away from their source areas, complicating the identification of causal links between forcing mechanisms and landscape response, especially over multi-millennial timescales. The intermontane Toro Basin in the southern Central Andes exhibits at least five generations of fluvial terraces that have been sculpted into several-hundred-meter-thick Quaternary valley-fill conglomerates. New surface-exposure dating using nine cosmogenic Be-10 depth profiles reveals the successive abandonment of these terraces with a 100 kyr cyclicity between 75 +/- 7 and 487 +/- 34 ka. Depositional ages of the conglomerates, determined by four Al-26/Be-10 burial samples and U-Pb zircon ages of three intercalated volcanic ash beds, range from 18 +/- 141 to 936 +/- 170 ka, indicating that there were multiple cut-and-fill episodes. Although the initial onset of aggradation at similar to 1 Ma and the overall net incision since ca. 500 ka can be linked to tectonic processes at the narrow basin outlet, the superimposed 100 kyr cycles of aggradation and incision are best explained by eccentricity-driven climate change. Within these cycles, the onset of river incision can be correlated with global cold periods and enhanced humid phases recorded in paleoclimate archives on the adjacent Bolivian Altiplano, whereas deposition occurred mainly during more arid phases on the Altiplano and global interglacial periods. We suggest that enhanced runoff during global cold phases - due to increased regional precipitation rates, reduced evapotranspiration, or both - resulted in an increased sediment-transport capacity in the Toro Basin, which outweighed any possible increases in upstream sediment supply and thus triggered incision. Compared with two nearby basins that record precessional (21-kyr) and long-eccentricity (400-kyr) forcing within sedimentary and geomorphic archives, the recorded cyclicity scales with the square of the drainage basin length. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Climate change is expected to exacerbate the current threats to freshwater ecosystems, yet multifaceted studies on the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity at scales that inform management planning are lacking. The aim of this study was to fill this void through the development of a novel framework for assessing climate change vulnerability tailored to freshwater ecosystems. The three dimensions of climate change vulnerability are as follows: (i) exposure to climate change, (ii) sensitivity to altered environmental conditions and (iii) resilience potential. Our vulnerability framework includes 1685 freshwater species of plants, fishes, molluscs, odonates, amphibians, crayfish and turtles alongside key features within and between catchments, such as topography and connectivity. Several methodologies were used to combine these dimensions across a variety of future climate change models and scenarios. The resulting indices were overlaid to assess the vulnerability of European freshwater ecosystems at the catchment scale (18 783 catchments). The Balkan Lakes Ohrid and Prespa and Mediterranean islands emerge as most vulnerable to climate change. For the 2030s, we showed a consensus among the applied methods whereby up to 573 lake and river catchments are highly vulnerable to climate change. The anthropogenic disruption of hydrological habitat connectivity by dams is the major factor reducing climate change resilience. A gap analysis demonstrated that the current European protected area network covers <25% of the most vulnerable catchments. Practical steps need to be taken to ensure the persistence of freshwater biodiversity under climate change. Priority should be placed on enhancing stakeholder cooperation at the major basin scale towards preventing further degradation of freshwater ecosystems and maintaining connectivity among catchments. The catchments identified as most vulnerable to climate change provide preliminary targets for development of climate change conservation management and mitigation strategies.
Arctic and alpine treelines worldwide differ in their reactions to climate change. A northward advance of or densification within the treeline ecotone will likely influence climate-vegetation feedback mechanisms. In our study, which was conducted in the Taimyr Depression in the North Siberian Lowlands, w present a combined field-and model-based approach helping us to better understand the population processes involved in the responses of the whole treeline ecotone, spanning from closed forest to single-tree tundra, to climate warming. Using information on stand structure, tree age, and seed quality and quantity from seven sites, we investigate effects of intra-specific competition and seed availability on the specific impact of recent climate warming on larch stands. Field data show that tree density is highest in the forest-tundra, and average tree size decreases from closed forest to single-tree tundra. Age-structure analyses indicate that the trees in the closed forest and forest-tundra have been present for at least similar to 240 yr. At all sites except the most southerly ones, past establishment is positively correlated with regional temperature increase. In the single-tree tundra, however, a change in growth form from krummholz to erect trees, beginning similar to 130 yr ago, rather than establishment date has been recorded. Seed mass decreases from south to north, while seed quantity increases. Simulations with LAVESI (Larix Vegetation Simulator) further suggest that relative density changes strongly in response to a warming signal in the forest-tundra while intra-specific competition limits densification in the closed forest and seed limitation hinders densification in the single-tree tundra. We find striking differences in strength and timing of responses to recent climate warming. While forest-tundra stands recently densified, recruitment is almost non-existent at the southern and northern end of the ecotone due to autecological processes. Palaeo-treelines may therefore be inappropriate to infer past temperature changes at a fine scale. Moreover, a lagged treeline response to past warming will, via feedback mechanisms, influence climate change in the future.
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation over central Asia over the year April 2005 through March 2006. Experiments are performed at 6.7 km horizontal grid spacing, with an emphasis on winter and summer precipitation over the Himalaya. The model and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission show a similar inter-seasonal cycle of precipitation, from extratropical cyclones to monsoon precipitation, with agreement also in the diurnal cycle of monsoon precipitation. In winter months, WRF compares better in timeseries of daily precipitation to stations below than above 3-km elevation, likely due to inferior measurement of snow than rain by the stations, highlighting the need for reliable snowfall measurements at high elevations in winter. In summer months, the nocturnal precipitation cycle in the foothills and valleys of the Himalaya is captured by this 6.7-km WRF simulation, while coarser simulations with convective parameterization show near zero nocturnal precipitation. In winter months, higher resolution is less important, serving only to slightly increase precipitation magnitudes due to steeper slopes. However, even in the 6.7-km simulation, afternoon precipitation is overestimated at high elevations, which can be reduced by even higher-resolution (2.2-km) simulations. These results indicate that WRF provides skillful simulations of precipitation relevant for studies of water resources over the complex terrain in the Himalaya.
Early agriculture can be detected in palaeovegetation records, but quantification of the relative importance of climate and land use in influencing regional vegetation composition since the onset of agriculture is a topic that is rarely addressed. We present a novel approach that combines pollen-based REVEALS estimates of plant cover with climate, anthropogenic land-cover and dynamic vegetation modelling results. This is used to quantify the relative impacts of land use and climate on Holocene vegetation at a sub-continental scale, i.e. northern and western Europe north of the Alps. We use redundancy analysis and variation partitioning to quantify the percentage of variation in vegetation composition explained by the climate and land-use variables, and Monte Carlo permutation tests to assess the statistical significance of each variable. We further use a similarity index to combine pollen based REVEALS estimates with climate-driven dynamic vegetation modelling results. The overall results indicate that climate is the major driver of vegetation when the Holocene is considered as a whole and at the sub-continental scale, although land use is important regionally. Four critical phases of land-use effects on vegetation are identified. The first phase (from 7000 to 6500 BP) corresponds to the early impacts on vegetation of farming and Neolithic forest clearance and to the dominance of climate as a driver of vegetation change. During the second phase (from 4500 to 4000 BP), land use becomes a major control of vegetation. Climate is still the principal driver, although its influence decreases gradually. The third phase (from 2000 to 1500 BP) is characterised by the continued role of climate on vegetation as a consequence of late-Holocene climate shifts and specific climate events that influence vegetation as well as land use. The last phase (from 500 to 350 BP) shows an acceleration of vegetation changes, in particular during the last century, caused by new farming practices and forestry in response to population growth and industrialization. This is a unique signature of anthropogenic impact within the Holocene but European vegetation remains climatically sensitive and thus may continue to respond to ongoing climate change. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs) are among the most active landforms in the Arctic; their number has increased significantly over the past decades. While processes initiating discrete RTSs are well identified, the major terrain controls on the development of coastal RTSs at a regional scale are not yet defined. Our research reveals the main geomorphic factors that determine the development of RTSs along a 238km segment of the Yukon Coast, Canada. We (1) show the current extent of RTSs, (2) ascertain the factors controlling their activity and initiation, and (3) explain the spatial differences in the density and areal coverage of RTSs. We mapped and classified 287 RTSs using high-resolution satellite images acquired in 2011. We highlighted the main terrain controls over their development using univariate regression trees model. Coastal geomorphology influenced both the activity and initiation of RTSs: active RTSs and RTSs initiated after 1972 occurred primarily on terrains with slope angles greater than 3.9 degrees and 5.9 degrees, respectively. The density and areal coverage of RTSs were constrained by the volume and thickness of massive ice bodies. Differences in rates of coastal change along the coast did not affect the model. We infer that rates of coastal change averaged over a 39year period are unable to reflect the complex relationship between RTSs and coastline dynamics. We emphasize the need for large-scale studies of RTSs to evaluate their impact on the ecosystem and to measure their contribution to the global carbon budget. Plain Language Summary Retrogressive thaw slumps, henceforth slumps are a type of landslides that occur when permafrost thaws. Slumps are active landforms: they develop quickly and extend over several hectares. Satellite imagery allows to map such slumps over large areas. Our research shows where slumps develop along a 238 km segment of the Yukon Coast in Canada and explains which environments are most suitable for slump occurrence. We found that active and newly developed slumps were triggered where coastal slopes were greater than 3.9 degrees and 5.9 degrees, respectively. We explain that coastal erosion influences the development of slumps by modifying coastal slopes. We found that the highest density of slumps as well as the largest slumps occurred on terrains with high amounts of ice bodies in the ground. This study provides tools to better identify areas in the Arctic that are prone to slump development.
Permafrost is a distinct feature of the terrestrial Arctic and is vulnerable to climate warming. Permafrost degrades in different ways, including deepening of a seasonally unfrozen surface and localized but rapid development of deep thaw features. Pleistocene ice-rich permafrost with syngenetic ice-wedges, termed Yedoma deposits, are widespread in Siberia, Alaska, and Yukon, Canada and may be especially prone to rapid-thaw processes. Freeze-locked organic matter in such deposits can be re-mobilized on short time-scales and contribute to a carbon-cycle climate feedback. Here we synthesize the characteristics and vulnerability of Yedoma deposits by synthesizing studies on the Yedoma origin and the associated organic carbon pool. We suggest that Yedoma deposits accumulated under periglacial weathering, transport, and deposition dynamics in non-glaciated regions during the late Pleistocene until the beginning of late glacial warming. The deposits formed due to a combination of aeolian, colluvial, nival, and alluvial deposition and simultaneous ground ice accumulation. We found up to 130 gigatons organic carbon in Yedoma, parts of which are well-preserved and available for fast decomposition after thaw. Based on incubation experiments, up to 10% of the Yedoma carbon is considered especially decomposable and may be released upon thaw. The substantial amount of ground ice in Yedoma makes it highly vulnerable to disturbances such as thermokarst and thermo-erosion processes. Mobilization of permafrost carbon is expected to increase under future climate warming. Our synthesis results underline the need of accounting for Yedoma carbon stocks in next generation Earth-System-Models for a more complete representation of the permafrost-carbon feedback.
Inherited rheological structures in the lithosphere are expected to have large impact on the architecture of continental rifts. The Turkana depression in the East African Rift connects the Main Ethiopian Rift to the north with the Kenya rift in the south. This region is characterized by a NW-SE trending band of thinned crust inherited from a Mesozoic rifting event, which is cutting the present-day N-S rift trend at high angle. In striking contrast to the narrow rifts in Ethiopia and Kenya, extension in the Turkana region is accommodated in subparallel deformation domains that are laterally distributed over several hundred kilometers. We present both analog experiments and numerical models that reproduce the along-axis transition from narrow rifting in Ethiopia and Kenya to a distributed deformation within the Turkana depression. Similarly to natural observations, our models show that the Ethiopian and Kenyan rifts bend away from each other within the Turkana region, thus forming a right-lateral step over and avoiding a direct link to form a continuous N-S depression. The models reveal five potential types of rift linkage across the preexisting basin: three types where rifts bend away from the inherited structure connecting via a (1) wide or (2) narrow rift or by (3) forming a rotating microplate, (4) a type where rifts bend towards it, and (5) straight rift linkage. The fact that linkage type 1 is realized in the Turkana region provides new insights on the rheological configuration of the Mesozoic rift system at the onset of the recent rift episode. Plain Language Summary The Turkana depression in the Kenya/Ethiopia borderland is most famous for its several million years old human fossils, but it also holds a rich geological history of continental separation. The Turkana region is a lowland located between the East African and Ethiopian domes because its crust and mantle have been stretched in a continent-wide rift event during Cretaceous times about 140-120 Ma ago. This thin lithosphere exerted paramount control on the dynamics of East African rifting in this area, which commenced around 15 Ma ago and persists until today. Combining analog "sandbox" experiments with numerical geodynamic modeling, we find that inherited rift structures explain the dramatic change in rift style from deep, narrow rift basins north and south of the Turkana area to wide, distributed deformation within the Turkana depression. The failed Cretaceous rift is also responsible for the eastward bend of the Ethiopian rift and the westward bend of the Kenyan rift when entering the Turkana depression, which generated the characteristic hook-shaped form of present-day Lake Turkana. Combing two independent modeling techniques-analog and numerical experiments-is a very promising approach allowing to draw robust conclusions about the processes that shape the surface of our planet.
Biofilm formation in bacteria is considered to be one strategy to avoid protozoan grazing. However, this assumption is largely based on experiments with suspension-feeding protozoans. Here we test the hypothesis that grazing resistance depends on both the grazers’ feeding trait and the bacterial phenotype, rather than being a general characteristic of bacterial biofilms. We combined batch experiments with mathematical modelling, considering the bacterium Pseudomonas putida and either a suspension-feeding (i.e. the ciliate Paramecium tetraurelia) or a surface-feeding grazer (i.e. the amoeba Acanthamoeba castellanii). We find that both plankton and biofilm phenotypes were consumed, when exposed to their specialised grazer, whereas the other phenotype remained grazing-resistant. This was consistently shown in two experiments (starting with either only planktonic bacteria or with additional pre-grown biofilms) and matches model predictions. In the experiments, the plankton feeder strongly stimulated the biofilm biomass. This stimulation of the resistant prey phenotype was not predicted by the model and it was not observed for the biofilm feeders, suggesting the existence of additional mechanisms that stimulate biofilm formation besides selective feeding. Overall, our results confirm our hypothesis that grazing resistance is a matter of the grazers’ trait (i.e. feeding type) rather than a biofilm-specific property.
Silicon stable isotopes have emerged as a powerful proxy to investigate weathering because Si uptake from solution by secondary minerals or by the vegetation causes significant shifts in the isotope composition. In this study, we determined the Si isotope compositions of the principle Si pools within two small catchments located on sandstone and paragneiss, respectively, in the temperate Black Forest (Germany). At both settings, clay formation is dominated by mineral transformation preserving largely the signature of parental minerals with delta Si-30 values of around -0.7%. Bulk soils rich in primary minerals are similar to bulk parental material with delta Si-30 values close to -0.4%. Topsoils are partly different because organic matter degradation has promoted intense weathering leading to delta Si-30 values as low as -1.0%. Water samples expose highly dynamic weathering processes in the soil zone: 1) after spring snowmelt, increased release of DOC and high water fluxes trigger clay mineral dissolution which leads to delta Si-30 values down to -0.7% and 2) in course of the summer, Si uptake by the vegetation and secondary mineral formation drives dissolved Si to typical positive delta Si-30 values up to 1.1%. Groundwater with delta Si-30 values of around 0.4% records steady processes in bedrock reflecting plagioclase weathering together with kaolinite precipitation. An isotope mass balance approach reveals incongruent weathering conditions where denudation of Si is largely driven by physical erosion. Erosion of phytoliths contributes 3 to 21% to the total Si export flux, which is in the same order as the dissolved Si flux. These results elucidate the Si dynamics during weathering on catchments underlain of sedimentary origin, prevailing on the Earth surface and provide therefore valuable information to interpret the isotope signature of large river systems.
Highly regulated induction systems enabling dose-dependent and reversible fine-tuning of protein expression output are beneficial for engineering complex biosynthetic pathways. To address this, we developed PhiReX, a novel red/far-red light-regulated protein expression system for use in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. PhiReX is based on the combination of a customizable synTALE DNA-binding domain, the VP64 activation domain and the light-sensitive dimerization of the photoreceptor PhyB and its interacting partner PIF3 from Arabidopsis thaliana. Robust gene expression and high protein levels are achieved by combining genome integrated red light-sensing components with an episomal high-copy reporter construct. The gene of interest as well as the synTALE DNA-binding domain can be easily exchanged, allowing the flexible regulation of any desired gene by targeting endogenous or heterologous promoter regions. To allow low-cost induction of gene expression for industrial fermentation processes, we engineered yeast to endogenously produce the chromophore required for the effective dimerization of PhyB and PIF3. Time course experiments demonstrate high-level induction over a period of at least 48 h.
Normally in paleoseismology, the study of the tectonic slip-rate is performed in trenches on the fault scarp, or by the estimation of fault movements from the geomorphic features. In this work, we have carried out a paleoseismic analysis of the Benis Fault, located in southeast Spain, combined with a geothermal analysis inside a deep cave related to the fault (-350 m). Thus, we have estimated the last earthquake magnitude and time of occurrence from evidence of ceiling collapse and displaced carbonate blocks inside a cave, which is developed across the fault. The magnitude was obtained from the application of the empirical relationship of the fault parameters and coseismic vertical displacement, yielding a value ranging between M 5.9 and M 6.5. Moreover, we dated this paleoearthquake by the paleontological record of a "Lynx pardinus spelaea", with an age of 65 +/- 18 ka BP. Additionally, we have measured the thermal profile of the Benis Cave (-350 m of depth), from single rock point temperature measurements during 2 years. The temperature profile shows three different parts inside the cave, the shallow heterogeneous thermal zone till 50 m depth; the homogeneous thermal zone 150 m till with constant temperature and the hetero-thermal deep zone, deeper than 150 m and till the deepest zone (350 m). Furthermore, we have estimated the Vertical Geothermal Gradient, 1.85 degrees C/100 m for the deepest zone (-150; -290 m). The temperature increases with depth, showing a reverse thermal profile in comparison with normal gradients in deep caves. Finally, we have calculated the heat flux of 0.46 mWm(2). (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.
role of subducted slabs
(2017)
Long-term estimates of the dissolution of silicate rock are generally derived from a range of isotopic proxies, such as the radiogenic strontium isotope ratio (Sr-87/Sr-86), which are preserved in sediment archives. For these systems to fairly represent silicate weathering, the changes in isotopic ratios in terrestrial surface waters should correspond to changes in the overall silicate dissolution. This assumes that the silicate mineral phases that act as sources of a given isotope dissolve at a rate that is proportional to the overall silicate weathering. Bedrock landsliding exhumes large quantities of fresh rock for weathering in transient storage, and rapid weathering in these deposits is controlled primarily by dissolution of the most reactive phases. In this study, we test the hypothesis that preferential weathering of these labile minerals can decouple the dissolution of strontium sources from the actual silicate weathering rates in the rapidly eroding Western Southern Alps (WSA) of New Zealand. We find that rapid dissolution of relatively radiogenic calcite and biotite in landslides leads to high local fluxes in strontium with isotopic ratios that offer no clear discrimination between sources. These higher fluxes of radiogenic strontium are in contrast to silicate weathering rates in landslides that are not systematically elevated. On a mountain belt scale, radiogenic strontium fluxes are not coupled to volumes of recent landslides in large (>100 km(2)) catchments, but silicate weathering fluxes are. Such decoupling is likely due first to the broad variability in the strontium content of carbonate minerals, and second to the combination of radiogenic strontium released from both biotite and carbonate in recent landslides. This study supports previous work suggesting the limited utility of strontium isotopes as a system to study silicate weathering in the WSA. Crucially however, in settings where bedrock landsliding is a dominant erosive process there is potential for both random and systematic bias in isotope proxies if the most reactive phases exposed for dissolution by landslides disproportionately contribute to the proxy of choice. This clearly suggests that the isotopic composition of marine Sr is a proxy for periods of rapid mountain uplift and erosion rather than for the associated enhanced silicate weathering. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
One of the most significant Late Holocene climate shifts occurred around 2800 years ago, when cooler and wetter climate conditions established in western Europe. This shift coincided with an abrupt change in regional atmospheric circulation between 2760 and 2560 cal years BP, which has been linked to a grand solar minimum with the same duration (the Homeric Minimum). We investigated the temporal sequence of hydroclimatic and vegetation changes across this interval of climatic change (Homeric climate oscillation) by using lipid biomarker stable hydrogen isotope ratios (ED values) and pollen assemblages from the annually-laminated sediment record from lake Meerfelder Maar (Germany). Over the investigated interval (3200-2000 varve years BP), terrestrial lipid biomarker ED showed a gradual trend to more negative values, consistent with the western Europe long-term climate trend of the Late Holocene. At ca. 2640 varve years BP we identified a strong increase in aquatic plants and algal remains, indicating a rapid change in the aquatic ecosystem superimposed on this long-term trend. Interestingly, this aquatic ecosystem change was accompanied by large changes in ED values of aquatic lipid biomarkers, such as nC(21) and nC(23) (by between 22 and 30%(0)). As these variations cannot solely be explained by hydroclimate changes, we suggest that these changes in the Wag value were influenced by changes in n-alkane source organisms. Our results illustrate that if ubiquitous aquatic lipid biomarkers are derived from a limited pool of organisms, changes in lake ecology can be a driving factor for variations on sedimentary lipid MN values, which then could be easily misinterpreted in terms of hydro climatic changes. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Accurate time series representation of paleoclimatic proxy records is challenging because such records involve dating errors in addition to proxy measurement errors. Rigorous attention is rarely given to age uncertainties in paleoclimatic research, although the latter can severely bias the results of proxy record analysis. Here, we introduce a Bayesian approach to represent layer-counted proxy records - such as ice cores, sediments, corals, or tree rings - as sequences of probability distributions on absolute, error-free time axes. The method accounts for both proxy measurement errors and uncertainties arising from layer-counting-based dating of the records. An application to oxygen isotope ratios from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) record reveals that the counting errors, although seemingly small, lead to substantial uncertainties in the final representation of the oxygen isotope ratios. In particular, for the older parts of the NGRIP record, our results show that the total uncertainty originating from dating errors has been seriously underestimated. Our method is next applied to deriving the overall uncertainties of the Suigetsu radiocarbon comparison curve, which was recently obtained from varved sediment cores at Lake Suigetsu, Japan. This curve provides the only terrestrial radiocarbon comparison for the time interval 12.5-52.8 kyr BP. The uncertainties derived here can be readily employed to obtain complete error estimates for arbitrary radiometrically dated proxy records of this recent part of the last glacial interval.
The aim of this paper is to investigate the ability of various site-condition proxies (SCPs) to reduce ground-motion aleatory variability and evaluate how SCPs capture nonlinearity site effects. The SCPs used here are time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the top 30 m (V-S30), the topographical slope (slope), the fundamental resonance frequency (f(0)) and the depth beyond which V-s exceeds 800 m/s (H800). We considered first the performance of each SCP taken alone and then the combined performance of the 6 SCP pairs [V-S30-f(0)], [V-S30-H-800], [f(0)-slope], [H-800-slope], [V-S30-slope] and [f(0)-H-800]. This analysis is performed using a neural network approach including a random effect applied on a KiK-net subset for derivation of ground-motion prediction equations setting the relationship between various ground-motion parameters such as peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and pseudo-spectral acceleration PSA (T), and Mw, RJB, focal depth and SCPs. While the choice of SCP is found to have almost no impact on the median groundmotion prediction, it does impact the level of aleatory uncertainty. VS30 is found to perform the best of single proxies at short periods (T < 0.6 s), while f(0) and H-800 perform better at longer periods; considering SCP pairs leads to significant improvements, with particular emphasis on [V-S30-H-800] and [f(0)-slope] pairs. The results also indicate significant nonlinearity on the site terms for soft sites and that the most relevant loading parameter for characterising nonlinear site response is the "stiff" spectral ordinate at the considered period.
High precipitation quantiles tend to rise with temperature, following the so-called Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling. It is often reported that the CC-scaling relation breaks down and even reverts for very high temperatures. In our study, we investigate this reversal using observational climate data from 142 stations across Germany. One of the suggested meteorological explanations for the breakdown is limited moisture supply. Here we argue that, instead, it could simply originate from undersampling. As rainfall frequency generally decreases with higher temperatures, rainfall intensities as dictated by CC scaling are less likely to be recorded than for moderate temperatures. Empirical quantiles are conventionally estimated from order statistics via various forms of plotting position formulas. They have in common that their largest representable return period is given by the sample size. In small samples, high quantiles are underestimated accordingly. The small-sample effect is weaker, or disappears completely, when using parametric quantile estimates from a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) fitted with L moments. For those, we obtain quantiles of rainfall intensities that continue to rise with temperature.
Climatic and limnological changes at Lake Karakul (Tajikistan) during the last similar to 29 cal ka
(2017)
We present results of analyses on a sediment core from Lake Karakul, located in the eastern Pamir Mountains, Tajikistan. The core spans the last similar to 29 cal ka. We investigated and assessed processes internal and external to the lake to infer changes in past moisture availability. Among the variables used to infer lake-external processes, high values of grain-size end-member (EM) 3 (wide grain-size distribution that reflects fluvial input) and high Sr/Rb and Zr/Rb ratios (coinciding with coarse grain sizes), are indicative of moister conditions. High values in EM1, EM2 (peaks of small grain sizes that reflect long-distance dust transport or fine, glacially derived clastic input) and TiO2 (terrigenous input) are thought to reflect greater influence of dry air masses, most likely of Westerly origin. High input of dust from distant sources, beginning before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and continuing to the late glacial, reflects the influence of dry Westerlies, whereas peaks in fluvial input suggest increased moisture availability. The early to early-middle Holocene is characterised by coarse mean grain sizes, indicating constant, high fluvial input and moister conditions in the region. A steady increase in terrigenous dust and a decrease in fluvial input from 6.6 cal ka BP onwards points to the Westerlies as the predominant atmospheric circulation through to present, and marks a return to drier and even arid conditions in the area. Proxies for productivity (TOC, TOC/TN, TOCBr), redox potential (Fe/Mn) and changes in the endogenic carbonate precipitation (TIC, delta(18) OCarb) indicate changes within the lake. Low productivity characterised the lake from the late Pleistocene until 6.6 cal ka BP, and increased rapidly afterwards. Lake level remained low until the LGM, but water depth increased to a maximum during the late glacial and remained high into the early Holocene. Subsequently, the water level decreased to its present stage. Today the lake system is mainly climatically controlled, but the depositional regime is also driven by internal limnogeological processes.
One of the major challenges in understanding the evolution of our own species is identifying the role climate change has played in the evolution of hominin species. To clarify the influence of climate, we need long and continuous high-resolution paleoclimate records, preferably obtained from hominin-bearing sediments, that are well-dated by tephro- and magnetostratigraphy and other methods. This is hindered, however, by the fact that fossil-bearing outcrop sediments are often discontinuous, and subject to weathering, which may lead to oxidation and remagnetization. To obtain fresh, unweathered sediments, the Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) collected a ∼216-meter core (WTK13) in 2013 from Early Pleistocene Paleolake Lorenyang deposits in the western Turkana Basin (Kenya). Here, we present the magnetostratigraphy of the WTK13 core, providing a first age model for upcoming HSPDP paleoclimate and paleoenvrionmental studies on the core sediments. Rock magnetic analyses reveal the presence of iron sulfides carrying the remanent magnetizations. To recover polarity orientation from the near-equatorial WTK13 core drilled at 5°N, we developed and successfully applied two independent drill-core reorientation methods taking advantage of (1) the sedimentary fabric as expressed in the Anisotropy of Magnetic Susceptibility (AMS) and (2) the occurrence of a viscous component oriented in the present day field. The reoriented directions reveal a normal to reversed polarity reversal identified as the top of the Olduvai Subchron. From this excellent record, we find no evidence for the ‘Vrica Subchron’ previously reported in the area. We suggest that outcrop-based interpretations supporting the presence of the Vrica Subchron have been affected by the oxidation of iron sulfides initially present in the sediments -as evident in the core record- and by subsequent remagnetization. We discuss the implications of the observed geomagnetic record for human evolution studies.
Competing hypotheses suggest that Himalayan topography is sustained and the plate convergence is accommodated either solely along the basal decollement, the Main Himalayan thrust (MHT), or more broadly, across multiple thrust faults. In the past, structural, geomorphic, and geodetic data of the Nepalese Himalaya have been used to constrain the geometry of the MHT and its shallow frontal thrust fault, known as Main Frontal thrust (MFT). The MHT flattens at depth and connects to a hinterland mid-crustal, steeper thrust ramp, located similar to 100 km north of the deformation front. There, the present-day convergence across the Himalaya is mostly accommodated by slip along the MFT. Despite a general agreement that in Nepal most of the shortening is accommodated along the MHT, some researchers have suggested the occurrence of persistent out-of-sequence shortening on interior faults near the Main Central thrust (MCT). Along the northwest Himalaya, in contrast, some of these characteristics of central Nepal are missing, suggesting along-strike variation of wedge deformation and MHT fault geometry. Here we present new field observations and seven zircon (U-Th)/He (ZHe) cooling ages combined with existing low-temperature data sets. In agreement with our previous findings, we suggest that the transect of cooling age patterns across the frontal Dhauladhar Range reveals that the Main Boundary thrust (MBT) is a primary fault, which has uplifted and sustained this spectacular mountain front since at least the late Miocene. Our results suggest that the MBT forms an similar to 40-km-long fault ramp before it soles into the MHT, and motion along it has exhumed rocks from depth of similar to 8-10 km. New three-dimensional thermokinematic modeling (using Pecube finite-element code) reveals that the observed ZHe and apatite fission track cooling ages can only be explained by sustained mean MBT slip rates between similar to 2.6 and 3.5 mm a(-1) since at least 8 Ma, which corresponds to a horizontal shortening rate of similar to 1.7-2.4 mm a(-1). We propose that the MBT is active today, despite a lack of definitive field or seismogenic evidence, and continues to accommodate crustal shorting by out-of-sequence faulting. Assuming that present-day geodetic shorting rates (similar to 14 +/- 2 mm a(-1)) across the northwest Himalaya have been sustained over geologic time scales, this implies that the MBT accommodated similar to 15% of the total Himalayan convergence since its onset. Furthermore, our modeling results imply that the MHT is missing a hinterland mid-crustal ramp further north.
Presentation and Analysis of a Worldwide Database of Earthquake-Induced Landslide Inventories
(2017)
Earthquake-induced landslide (EQIL) inventories are essential tools to extend our knowledge of the relationship between earthquakes and the landslides they can trigger. Regrettably, such inventories are difficult to generate and therefore scarce, and the available ones differ in terms of their quality and level of completeness. Moreover, access to existing EQIL inventories is currently difficult because there is no centralized database. To address these issues, we compiled EQIL inventories from around the globe based on an extensive literature study. The database contains information on 363 landslide-triggering earthquakes and includes 66 digital landslide inventories. To make these data openly available, we created a repository to host the digital inventories that we have permission to redistribute through the U.S. Geological Survey ScienceBase platform. It can grow over time as more authors contribute their inventories. We analyze the distribution of EQIL events by time period and location, more specifically breaking down the distribution by continent, country, and mountain region. Additionally, we analyze frequency distributions of EQIL characteristics, such as the approximate area affected by landslides, total number of landslides, maximum distance from fault rupture zone, and distance from epicenter when the fault plane location is unknown. For the available digital EQIL inventories, we examine the underlying characteristics of landslide size, topographic slope, roughness, local relief, distance to streams, peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and Modified Mercalli Intensity. Also, we present an evaluation system to help users assess the suitability of the available inventories for different types of EQIL studies and model development.
Modeling loss-propagation in the global supply network: The dynamic agent-based model acclimate
(2017)
World markets are highly interlinked and local economies extensively rely on global supply and value chains. Consequently, local production disruptions, for instance caused by extreme weather events, are likely to induce indirect losses along supply chains with potentially global repercussions. These complex loss dynamics represent a challenge for comprehensive disaster risk assessments. Here, we introduce the numerical agent-based model acclimate designed to analyze the cascading of economic losses in the global supply network. Using national sectors as agents, we apply the model to study the global propagation of losses induced by stylized disasters. We find that indirect losses can become comparable in size to direct ones, but can be efficiently mitigated by warehousing and idle capacities. Consequently, a comprehensive risk assessment cannot focus solely on first-tier suppliers, but has to take the whole supply chain into account. To render the supply network climate-proof, national adaptation policies have to be complemented by international adaptation efforts. In that regard, our model can be employed to assess reasonable leverage points and to identify dynamic bottlenecks inaccessible to static analyses. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Receiver functions (RF) have been used for several decades to study structures beneath seismic stations. Although most available stations are deployed on shore, the number of ocean bottom station (OBS) experiments has increased in recent years. Almost all OBSs have to deal with higher noise levels and a limited deployment time (approximate to 1year), resulting in a small number of usable records of teleseismic earthquakes. Here we use OBSs deployed as midaperture array in the deep ocean (4.5-5.5km water depth) of the eastern mid-Atlantic. We use evaluation criteria for OBS data and beamforming to enhance the quality of the RFs. Although some stations show reverberations caused by sedimentary cover, we are able to identify the Moho signal, indicating a normal thickness (5-8km) of oceanic crust. Observations at single stations with thin sediments (300-400m) indicate that a probable sharp lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB) might exist at a depth of approximate to 70-80km which is in line with LAB depth estimates for similar lithospheric ages in the Pacific. The mantle discontinuities at approximate to 410km and approximate to 660km are clearly identifiable. Their delay times are in agreement with PREM. Overall the usage of beam-formed earthquake recordings for OBS RF analysis is an excellent way to increase the signal quality and the number of usable events.
Voluminous magmatism during the South Atlantic opening has been considered as a classical example for plume related continental breakup. We present a study of the crustal structure around Walvis Ridge, near the intersection with the African margin. Two wide-angle seismic profiles were acquired. One is oriented NNW–SSE, following the continent–ocean transition and crossing Walvis Ridge. A second amphibious profile runs NW–SE from the Angola Basin into continental Namibia. At the continent–ocean boundary (COB) the mafic crust beneath Walvis Ridge is up to 33 km thick, with a pronounced high-velocity lower crustal body. Towards the south there is a smooth transition to 20–25 km thick crust underlying the COB in the Walvis Basin, with a similar velocity structure, indicating a gabbroic lower crust with associated cumulates at the base. The northern boundary of Walvis Ridge towards the Angola Basin shows a sudden change to oceanic crust only 4–6 km thick, coincident with the projection of the Florianopolis Fracture Zone, one of the most prominent tectonic features of the South Atlantic ocean basin. In the amphibious profile the COB is defined by a sharp transition from oceanic to rifted continental crust, with a magmatic overprint landward of the intersection of Walvis Ridge with the Namibian margin. The continental crust beneath the Congo Craton is 40 km thick, shoaling to 35 km further SE. The velocity models show that massive high-velocity gabbroic intrusives are restricted to a narrow zone directly underneath Walvis Ridge and the COB in the south. This distribution of rift-related magmatism is not easily reconciled with models of continental breakup following the establishment of a large, axially symmetric plume in the Earth's mantle. Rift-related lithospheric stretching and associated transform faulting play an overriding role in locating magmatism, dividing the margin in a magma-dominated southern and an essentially amagmatic northern segment.
Passive continental margins offer the unique opportunity to study the processes involved in continental extension and break-up. Within the LISPWAL (Llthospheric Structure of the Namibian continental Passive margin at the intersection with the Walvis Ridge from amphibious seismic investigations) project, combined on- and offshore seismic experiments were designed to characterize the Southern African passive margin at the Walvis Ridge in northern Namibia. In addition to extensive analysis of the crustal structures, we carried out seismic investigations targeting the velocity structure of the upper mantle in the landfall region of the Walvis Ridge with the Namibian coast. Upper mantle P-n travel time tomography from controlled source, amphibious seismic data was used to investigate the sub-Moho upper mantle seismic velocity. We succeeded in imaging upper mantle structures potentially associated with continental break-up and/or the Tristan da Cunha hotspot track. We found mostly coast-parallel sub-Moho velocity anomalies, interpreted as structures which were created during Gondwana break-up. (C)2016 Published by Elsevier B.V.
The opening of the South Atlantic is a classical example for a plume related continental breakup. Flood basalts are present on both conjugate margins as well as aseismic ridges connecting them with the current plume location at Tristan da Cunha. To determine the effect of the proposed plume head on the continental crust, we acquired wide-angle seismic data at the junction of the Walvis Ridge with the African continent and modelled the P-wave velocity structure in a forward approach. The profile extends 430 km along the ridge and continues onshore to a length of 720 km. Crustal velocities beneath the Walvis Ridge vary between 5.5 km/s and 7.0 km/s, a typical range for oceanic crust. The crustal thickness of 22 km, however, is approximately three times larger than of normal oceanic crust. The continent-ocean transition is characterized by 30 km thick crust with strong lateral velocity variations in the upper crust and a high-velocity lower crust (HVLC), where velocities reach up to 7.5 km/s. The HVLC is 100 to 130 km wider at the Walvis Ridge than it is farther south, and impinges onto the continental crust of the Kaoko fold belt. Such high seismic velocities indicate Mg-rich igneous material intruded into the continental crust during the initial rifting stage. However, the remaining continental crust seems unaffected by intrusions and the root of the 40 km-thick crust of the Kaoko belt is not thermally abraded. We conclude that the plume head did not modify the continental crust on a large scale, but caused rather local effects. Thus, it seems unlikely that a plume drove or initiated the breakup process. We further propose that the plume already existed underneath the continent prior to the breakup, and ponded melt erupted at emerging rift structures providing the magma for continental flood basalts. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
In the last few years the method of cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) has gained popularity among hydrologists, physicists, and land-surface modelers. The sensor provides continuous soil moisture data, averaged over several hectares and tens of decimeters in depth. However, the signal still may contain unidentified features of hydrological processes, and many calibration datasets are often required in order to find reliable relations between neutron intensity and water dynamics. Recent insights into environmental neutrons accurately described the spatial sensitivity of the sensor and thus allowed one to quantify the contribution of individual sample locations to the CRNS signal. Consequently, data points of calibration and validation datasets are suggested to be averaged using a more physically based weighting approach. In this work, a revised sensitivity function is used to calculate weighted averages of point data. The function is different from the simple exponential convention by the extraordinary sensitivity to the first few meters around the probe, and by dependencies on air pressure, air humidity, soil moisture, and vegetation. The approach is extensively tested at six distinct monitoring sites: two sites with multiple calibration datasets and four sites with continuous time series datasets. In all cases, the revised averaging method improved the performance of the CRNS products. The revised approach further helped to reveal hidden hydrological processes which otherwise remained unexplained in the data or were lost in the process of overcalibration. The presented weighting approach increases the overall accuracy of CRNS products and will have an impact on all their applications in agriculture, hydrology, and modeling.
High Mountain Asia (HMA) – encompassing the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding mountain ranges – is the primary water source for much of Asia, serving more than a billion downstream users. Many catchments receive the majority of their yearly water budget in the form of snow, which is poorly monitored by sparse in situ weather networks. Both the timing and volume of snowmelt play critical roles in downstream water provision, as many applications – such as agriculture, drinking-water generation, and hydropower – rely on consistent and predictable snowmelt runoff. Here, we examine passive microwave data across HMA with five sensors (SSMI, SSMIS, AMSR-E, AMSR2, and GPM) from 1987 to 2016 to track the timing of the snowmelt season – defined here as the time between maximum passive microwave signal separation and snow clearance. We validated our method against climate model surface temperatures, optical remote-sensing snow-cover data, and a manual control dataset (n = 2100, 3 variables at 25 locations over 28 years); our algorithm is generally accurate within 3–5 days. Using the algorithm-generated snowmelt dates, we examine the spatiotemporal patterns of the snowmelt season across HMA. The climatically short (29-year) time series, along with complex interannual snowfall variations, makes determining trends in snowmelt dates at a single point difficult. We instead identify trends in snowmelt timing by using hierarchical clustering of the passive microwave data to determine trends in self-similar regions. We make the following four key observations. (1) The end of the snowmelt season is trending almost universally earlier in HMA (negative trends). Changes in the end of the snowmelt season are generally between 2 and 8 days decade−1 over the 29-year study period (5–25 days total). The length of the snowmelt season is thus shrinking in many, though not all, regions of HMA. Some areas exhibit later peak signal separation (positive trends), but with generally smaller magnitudes than trends in snowmelt end. (2) Areas with long snowmelt periods, such as the Tibetan Plateau, show the strongest compression of the snowmelt season (negative trends). These trends are apparent regardless of the time period over which the regression is performed. (3) While trends averaged over 3 decades indicate generally earlier snowmelt seasons, data from the last 14 years (2002–2016) exhibit positive trends in many regions, such as parts of the Pamir and Kunlun Shan. Due to the short nature of the time series, it is not clear whether this change is a reversal of a long-term trend or simply interannual variability. (4) Some regions with stable or growing glaciers – such as the Karakoram and Kunlun Shan – see slightly later snowmelt seasons and longer snowmelt periods. It is likely that changes in the snowmelt regime of HMA account for some of the observed heterogeneity in glacier response to climate change. While the decadal increases in regional temperature have in general led to earlier and shortened melt seasons, changes in HMA's cryosphere have been spatially and temporally heterogeneous.
Nitrogen lipid regulator (NlpR) is a pleiotropic regulator that positively controls genes associated with both nitrogen and lipid metabolism in the oleaginous bacterium Rhodococcus jostii RHA1. In this study, we investigated the effect of nlpR disruption and overexpression on the assimilation of C-13-labeled glucose as carbon source, during cultivation of cells under nitrogen-limiting and nitrogen-rich conditions, respectively. Label incorporation into the total lipid extract (TLE) fraction was about 30% lower in the mutant strain in comparison with the wild type strain under low-nitrogen conditions. Moreover, a higher C-13 abundance (similar to 60%) into the extracellular polymeric substance fraction was observed in the mutant strain, nlpR disruption also promoted a decrease in the label incorporation into several TLE-derivative fractions including neutral lipids (NL), glycolipids (GL), phospholipids (PL), triacylglycerols (TAG), diacylglycerols (DAG), and free fatty acids (FFA), with the DAG being the most affected. In contrast, the nlpR overexpression in RHA1 cells under nitrogen-rich conditions produced an increase of the label incorporation into the TLE and its derivative NL and PL fractions, the last one being the highest C-13 enriched. In addition, a higher C-13 enrichment occurred in the TAG, DAG, and FFA fractions after nlpR induction, with the FFA fraction being the most affected within the TLE. Isotopic-labeling experiments demonstrated that NlpR regulator is contributing in oleaginous phenotype of R. jostii RHA1 to the allocation of carbon into the different lipid fractions in response to nitrogen levels, increasing the rate of carbon flux into lipid metabolism.
The temporal dynamics of climate processes are spread across different timescales and, as such, the study of these processes at only one selected timescale might not reveal the complete mechanisms and interactions within and between the (sub-) processes. To capture the non-linear interactions between climatic events, the method of event synchronization has found increasing attention recently. The main drawback with the present estimation of event synchronization is its restriction to analysing the time series at one reference timescale only. The study of event synchronization at multiple scales would be of great interest to comprehend the dynamics of the investigated climate processes. In this paper, the wavelet-based multi-scale event synchronization (MSES) method is proposed by combining the wavelet transform and event synchronization. Wavelets are used extensively to comprehend multi-scale processes and the dynamics of processes across various timescales. The proposed method allows the study of spatio-temporal patterns across different timescales. The method is tested on synthetic and real-world time series in order to check its replicability and applicability. The results indicate that MSES is able to capture relationships that exist between processes at different timescales.
Erosion processes, aggravated by human activity, have a large impact on the spatial variation of soil and topographic properties. Knowledge of the topography prior to human-induced erosion (paleotopography) in naturally stable landscapes is valuable for identifying vulnerable landscape positions and is required as starting point for erosion modelling exercises. However, developing accurate reconstructions of paleotopography provide a major challenge for geomorphologists. Here, we present a set of paleotopographies for a closed kettle hole catchment in north-east Germany (4 ha), obtained through different reconstruction approaches. Current soil and colluvium thickness, estimated from a dataset of 264 soil descriptions using Ordinary Kriging, were used as input for a mass balance, or were compared with a set of undisturbed soil thicknesses to estimate the amount of erosion. The performance of the different approaches was assessed with cross-validation and the count of mispredicted eroded, depositional or stable landscape positions. The paleotopographic reconstruction approach based on the average thickness of undisturbed soils in the study area showed the best performance. This thickness (1.00 m) is comparable to the average undisturbed soil thickness in the region and in line with global correlations of soil thickness as a function of rainfall and initial CaCO3 content. The performance of the different approaches depended more on mispredictions of landscape position due to the assumption of a spatially constant initial soil depth than on small variations in this depth. To conclude, we mention several methodological and practical points of attention for future topography reconstruction studies, concerning data quality and availability, spatial configuration of data and other processes affecting topography. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Regional snow-avalanche detection using object-based image analysis of near-infrared aerial imagery
(2017)
Snow avalanches are destructive mass movements in mountain regions that continue to claim lives and cause infrastructural damage and traffic detours. Given that avalanches often occur in remote and poorly accessible steep terrain, their detection and mapping is extensive and time consuming. Nonetheless, systematic avalanche detection over large areas could help to generate more complete and up-to-date inventories (cadastres) necessary for validating avalanche forecasting and hazard mapping. In this study, we focused on automatically detecting avalanches and classifying them into release zones, tracks, and run-out zones based on 0.25m near-infrared (NIR) ADS80-SH92 aerial imagery using an object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach. Our algorithm takes into account the brightness, the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), the normalised difference water index (NDWI), and its standard deviation (SDNDWI) to distinguish avalanches from other land-surface elements. Using normalised parameters allows applying this method across large areas. We trained the method by analysing the properties of snow avalanches at three 4km−2 areas near Davos, Switzerland. We compared the results with manually mapped avalanche polygons and obtained a user's accuracy of >0.9 and a Cohen's kappa of 0.79–0.85. Testing the method for a larger area of 226.3km−2, we estimated producer's and user's accuracies of 0.61 and 0.78, respectively, with a Cohen's kappa of 0.67. Detected avalanches that overlapped with reference data by >80% occurred randomly throughout the testing area, showing that our method avoids overfitting. Our method has potential for large-scale avalanche mapping, although further investigations into other regions are desirable to verify the robustness of our selected thresholds and the transferability of the method.
On trend detection
(2017)
A main obstacle to trend detection in time series occurs when they are autocorrelated. By reducing the effective sample size of a series, autocorrelation leads to decreased trend significance. Numerous recipes attempt to mitigate the effect of autocorrelation, either by adjusting for the reduced effective sample size or by removing the autocorrelated components of a series. This short note deals with the latter, also called prewhitening (PW). It is known that removal of autocorrelation also removes part of the trend, which may affect the signal-to-noise ratio. Two popular methods have dealt with this problem, the trend-free prewhitening (TFPW) and the iterative prewhitening. Although it is generally accepted that both methods reduce the adverse effects of PW on the trend magnitude, corresponding effects on statistical significance have not been clearly stated for TFPW. Using a Monte Carlo approach, it is demonstrated that both methods entail quite different Type-I error rates. The iterative prewhitening produces rates that are generally close to the nominal significance level. The TFPW, however, shows very high Type-I error rates with increasing autocorrelation. The corresponding rate of false trend detections is unacceptable for applications, so that published trends based on TFPW need to be reassessed.
The development of well-constrained palaeo-proxies that enable the reconstruction of past climate change is becoming an ever more important field of scientific enquiry within the palaeobotanical community, with the potential to deliver broader impacts linked to understanding of future anthropogenic climate change. One of the major uncertainties in predicting climate change is how the hydrological cycle will respond to future warming. Griener and Warny (2015, Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 221,138-143) suggested that pollen size might be a useful proxy for tracking moisture availability, as pollen size appears to be negatively correlated with moisture. Given the long fossil record of pollen and spores such a proxy would have broad scope and the potential to deliver much needed information. Here we set out to fully evaluate and test the robustness of this proxy. We focus on a number of key issues: controls on pollen size, data analysis, and finally proxy validation. Using this approach we find that there is little theoretical or empirical support for the original relationship proposed by Griener and Warny. Consequently it is currently premature to use pollen size as a moisture availability proxy in the fossil record. However, we recognise that the technique may have potential and conclude by offering a series of recommendations that would rigorously assess and test for a relationship between pollen size and moisture availability. (c) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Northeastern (NE) India experiences extraordinarily pronounced seasonal climate, governed by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The vulnerability of this region to floods and droughts calls for detailed and highly resolved paleoclimate reconstructions to assess the recurrence rate and driving factors of ISM changes. We use stable oxygen and carbon isotope ratios (delta O-18 and delta C-13) from stalagmite MAW-6 from Mawmluh Cave to infer climate and environmental conditions in NE India over the last deglaciation (16-6ka). We interpret stalagmite delta O-18 as reflecting ISM strength, whereas delta C-13 appears to be driven by local hydroclimate conditions. Pronounced shifts in ISM strength over the deglaciation are apparent from the delta O-18 record, similarly to other records from monsoonal Asia. The ISM is weaker during the late glacial (LG) period and the Younger Dryas, and stronger during the BOlling-Allerod and Holocene. Local conditions inferred from the delta C-13 record appear to have changed less substantially over time, possibly related to the masking effect of changing precipitation seasonality. Time series analysis of the delta O-18 record reveals more chaotic conditions during the late glacial and higher predictability during the Holocene, likely related to the strengthening of the seasonal recurrence of the ISM with the onset of the Holocene.
River-bed disturbance and associated sedimentary processes such as particle mobility are central elements to assess river ecosystem functioning. Dams change river dynamics affecting the magnitude and frequency of biophysical elements that depend on them. This paper examines the effects of two dams different in size, management, and location, on the flow regime, flood competence, and bed disturbance in two contrasting Mediterranean rivers, the Esera and the Siurana. For this purpose, two reaches on each river were monitored upstream and downstream from reservoirs. Several monitoring and modeling techniques were used to characterize flow competence, particle entrainment, and the volumes of sediments eroded and deposited after floods. The flow regime of the Esera has been modified from nivo-pluvial regime, typical of humid mountainous environments, to that observed in dry semiarid regions, in which high magnitude but low frequency floods are the dominant processes. Conversely, the flow regime of the Siurana has changed from a typical Mediterranean stream to a regime observed in more temperate environments, with more permanent and stable flows. Both rivers show notably physical changes, with channels clearly less dynamic below the dams. The lack of competent flows together with the sediment deficit associated with the dams has led to less active fluvial environments (reduced particle mobility and bed scour dynamics), a fact that affects instream habitat structure (more uniform grain size distribution, less physical heterogeneity, more stable flows), overall contributing to the degradation of the stream corridor and the subsequent environmental deterioration of the whole fluvial landscape. Copyright (c) 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
We have analyzed the recently developed pan-European strong motion database, RESORCE-2012: spectral parameters, such as stress drop (stress parameter, Delta sigma), anelastic attenuation (Q), near surface attenuation (kappa(0)) and site amplification have been estimated from observed strong motion recordings. The selected dataset exhibits a bilinear distance-dependent Q model with average kappa(0) value 0.0308 s. Strong regional variations in inelastic attenuation were also observed: frequency-independent Q(0) of 1462 and 601 were estimated for Turkish and Italian data respectively. Due to the strong coupling between Q and kappa(0), the regional variations in Q have strong impact on the estimation of near surface attenuation kappa(0). kappa(0) was estimated as 0.0457 and 0.0261 s for Turkey and Italy respectively. Furthermore, a detailed analysis of the variability in estimated kappa(0) revealed significant within-station variability. The linear site amplification factors were constrained from residual analysis at each station and site-class type. Using the regional Q(0) model and a site-class specific kappa(0), seismic moments (M-0) and source corner frequencies f (c) were estimated from the site corrected empirical Fourier spectra. Delta sigma did not exhibit magnitude dependence. The median Delta sigma value was obtained as 5.75 and 5.65 MPa from inverted and database magnitudes respectively. A comparison of response spectra from the stochastic model (derived herein) with that from (regional) ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) suggests that the presented seismological parameters can be used to represent the corresponding seismological attributes of the regional GMPEs in a host-to-target adjustment framework. The analysis presented herein can be considered as an update of that undertaken for the previous Euro-Mediterranean strong motion database presented by Edwards and Fah (Geophys J Int 194(2):1190-1202, 2013a).
Sedimentary lipid biomarkers have become widely used tools for reconstructing past climatic and ecological changes due to their ubiquitous occurrence in lake sediments. In particular, the hydrogen isotopic composition (expressed as delta D values) of leaf wax lipids derived from terrestrial plants has been a focus of research during the last two decades and the understanding of competing environmental and plant physiological factors influencing the delta D values has greatly improved. Comparatively less attention has been paid to lipid biomarkers derived from aquatic plants, although these compounds are abundant in many lacustrine sediments. We therefore conducted a field and laboratory experiment to study the effect of salinity and groundwater discharge on the isotopic composition of aquatic plant biomarkers. We analyzed samples of the common submerged plant species, Potamogeton pectinatus (sago pondweed), which has a wide geographic distribution and can tolerate high salinity. We tested the effect of groundwater discharge (characterized by more negative delta D values relative to lake water) and salinity on the delta D values of n-alkanes from P. pectinatus by comparing plants (i) collected from the oligotrophic freshwater Lake Stechlin (Germany) at shallow littoral depth from locations with and without groundwater discharge, and (ii) plants grown from tubers collected from the eutrophic Lake Muggelsee in nutrient solution at four salinity levels. Isotopically depleted groundwater did not have a significant influence on the delta D values of n-alkanes in Lake Stechlin P. pectinatus and calculated isotopic fractionation factors epsilon(l/w) between lake water and n-alkanes averaged -137 +/- 9%(n-C-23), -136 +/- 7%(n-C-25) and -131 +/- 6%(n-C-27), respectively. Similar epsilon values were calculated for plants from Lake Muggelsee grown in freshwater nutrient solution (-134 +/- 11% for n-C-23), while greater fractionation was observed at increased salinity values of 10 (163 +/- 12%) and 15(-172 +/- 15%). We therefore suggest an average e value of -136 +/- 9% between source water and the major n-alkanes in P. pectinatus grown under freshwater conditions. Our results demonstrate that isotopic fractionation can increase by 30-40% at salinity values 10 and 15. These results could be explained either by inhibited plant growth at higher salinity, or by metabolic adaptation to salt stress that remain to be elucidated. A potential salinity effect on dD values of aquatic lipids requires further examination, since this would impact on the interpretation of downcore isotopic data in paleohydrologic studies. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The majority of original seismograms recorded at the very beginning of instrumental seismology (the early 1900s) did not survive till present. However, a number of books, bulletins, and catalogs were published including the seismogram reproductions of some, particularly interesting earthquakes. In case these reproductions contain the time and amplitude scales, they can be successfully analyzed the same way as the original records. Information about the Atushi (Kashgar) earthquake, which occurred on August 22, 1902, is very limited. We could not find any original seismograms for this earthquake, but 12 seismograms from 6 seismic stations were printed as example records in different books. These data in combination with macroseismic observations and different bulletins information published for this earthquake were used to determine the source parameters of the earthquake. The earthquake epicenter was relocated at 39.87A degrees N and 76.42A degrees E with the hypocenter depth of about 18 km. We could further determine magnitudes m (B) = 7.7 +/- 0.3, M (S) = 7.8 +/- 0.4, M (W) = 7.7 +/- 0.3 and the focal mechanism of the earthquake with strike/dip/rake - 260A degrees +/- 20/30A degrees +/- 10/90A degrees +/- 10. This study confirms that the earthquake likely had a smaller magnitude than previously reported (M8.3). The focal mechanism indicates dominant thrust faulting, which is in a good agreement with presumably responsible Tuotegongbaizi-Aerpaleike northward dipping thrust fault kinematic, described in previous studies.
Direct current systems employing a kinematic surveying strategy allow to analyze the electrical resistivity of the subsurface for large areas (i.e., several hectares). Typical applications are found in precision agriculture, archaeological prospecting and soil sciences. With the typical survey setting, the collected data sets are often characterized by a rather high level of noise and a rather coarse lateral sampling compared to data acquired with fixed electrodes. We therefore present an efficient one-dimensional inversion approach in which we put special attention on modeling the effects of noise. We apply this method to data recorded with a five-offset equatorial dipole-dipole system employing rolling electrodes. By performing several synthetic tests with realistic noise levels, we found that the considered five-configuration soundings allow for a reliable imaging of two-layer cases in the uppermost two meters of the subsurface, where the subsurface can be assumed to follow a horizontally layered geometry within 3 m around the system. By analyzing the corresponding sensitivity functions, we also show that the equatorial dipole-dipole array is relatively well suited for a 1D inversion approach compared to standard in-line electrode arrays. To illustrate this aspect, we show that our method can provide results similar to those obtained with a 2D Wenner imaging procedure for data recorded across a well-constrained 2D target. We finally apply our method to a large five-offset data set acquired in an agricultural study. The final pseudo-3D model of electrical resistivity is in accordance with borehole data available for the surveyed area. Our results demonstrate the applicability and the versatility of the presented inversion approach for large-scale data sets as they are typically collected with such rolling electrode systems. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The formation of the Pamir is a key component of the India-Asia collision with major implications for lithospheric processes, plateau formation, land-sea configurations and associated climate changes. Although the formation of the Pamir is traditionally linked to Cenozoic processes associated with the India-Asia collision, the contribution of the Mesozoic tectonic evolution remains poorly understood. The Pamir was formed by the suturing of Gondwanan terranes to the south margin of Eurasia, however, the timing and tectonic mechanisms associated with this Mesozoic accretion remain poorly constrained. These processes are recorded by several igneous belts within these terranes, which are not well studied. Within the Southern Pamir, the Albian-Turonian volcanic rocks and comagmatic plutons of the Kyzylrabat Igneous Complex (KIC) provide an important and still unconstrained record of the Pamir evolution. Here we provide the age, origin and the geodynamic setting of the KIC volcanics by studying their petrology, zircon U-Pb geochronology, geochemistry and isotope composition.17 samples from the KIC volcanics yield U-Pb ages spanning from 92 to 110 Ma. The volcanics are intermediate to acidic in composition (SiO2 = 56-69 wt%) and exhibit high-K calc-alkaline and shoshonitic affinity (K2O/Na2O = 12.2 wt%). They show enrichment in LILE and LREE and depletion in HFSE and HREE with negative Ta, Ti and Nb anomalies, suggesting an arc-related tectonic setting for their formation. Low sNd(t) values (from 9.1 to 4.7), relatively high Sr-87/Sr-86(i) ratios (0.7069-0.7096) and broad range of zircon stif values (from 22.6 to 1.5) suggest a mixture of different magma sources. These features suggest that volcanics were derived by crustal under- or intraplating of an enriched subduction-related mantle shoshonitic magmas, by heating and partial melting of the lower crust, and by mixing of both magma components. Our results further imply that the KIC volcanics represent a shoshonitic suite typical of an evolution from active continental arc to post-collisional setting with a steepening of the Benioff zone and thickening of the crust toward the back-arc. This setting is best explained by the subduction- collision transition along the Shyok suture due to accretion of the Kohistan island arc to the Karakoram. This suggests that a significant part of the crustal shortening and thickening accommodated in the Pamir occurred in the Mesozoic before the India-Asia collision with implications for regional tectonic models. This further suggests the Pamir was already a major topographic feature with potentially important paleoclimate forcing such as the monsoonal circulation. (C) 2017 International Association for Gondwana Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Fjords and old-growth forests store large amounts of organic carbon. Yet the role of episodic disturbances, particularly volcanic eruptions, in mobilizing organic carbon in fjord landscapes covered by temperate rainforests remains poorly quantified. To this end, we estimated how much wood and soils were flushed to nearby fjords following the 2008 eruption of Chaiten volcano in south-central Chile, where pyroclastic sediments covered >12km(2) of pristine temperate rainforest. Field-based surveys of forest biomass, soil organic content, and dead wood transport reveal that the reworking of pyroclastic sediments delivered similar to 66,500+14,600/-14,500tC of large wood to two rivers entering the nearby Patagonian fjords in less than a decade. A similar volume of wood remains in dead tree stands and buried beneath pyroclastic deposits (similar to 79,900+21,100/-16,900tC) or stored in active river channels (5,900-10,600tC). We estimate that bank erosion mobilized similar to 132,300(+21,700)/(-30,600)tC of floodplain forest soil. Eroded and reworked forest soils have been accreting on coastal river deltas at >5mmyr(-1) since the eruption. While much of the large wood is transported out of the fjord by long-shore drift, the finer fraction from eroded forest soils is likely to be buried in the fjords. We conclude that the organic carbon fluxes boosted by rivers adjusting to high pyroclastic sediment loads may remain elevated for up to a decade and that Patagonian temperate rainforests disturbed by excessive loads of pyroclastic debris can be episodic short-lived carbon sources. Plain Language Summary Fjords and old-growth forests are important sinks of organic carbon. However, the role of volcanic eruptions in flushing organic carbon in fjord landscapes remains unexplored. Here we estimated how much forest vegetation and soils were lost to fjords following the 2008 eruption ofunknownChaiten volcano in south-central Chile. Pyroclastic sediments obliterated near-pristine temperateunknownrainforest, and the subsequent reworking of these sediments delivered in less than a decade similar to 66,000 tC of large wood to the mountain rivers, draining into the nearby Patagonian fjords. A similar volume of wood remains in dead tree stands and buried beneath pyroclastic deposits or stored in active riverunknownchannels. We estimate that similar to 130,000 tC of organic carbon-rich soil was lost to erosion, thus adding to the carbon loads. While much of the wood enters the long-shore drift in the fjord heads, the finerunknownfraction from eroded forest soils is likely to be buried in the fjords at rates that exceed regional estimates by an order of magnitude. We anticipate that these eruption-driven fluxes will remain elevated forunknownthe coming years and that Patagonian temperate rainforests episodically switch from carbon sinks to hitherto undocumented carbon sources if disturbed by explosive volcanic eruptions.
Electromagnetic induction (EMI) sensors using sufficiently low-frequency harmonic sources and sufficiently small loop separations operate in the low-induction-number (LIN) domain for a relatively wide range of background conductivity. These systems are used in diverse near-surface investigations including applications from soil sciences, hydrology, and archaeology. The special case of portable multiconfiguration EMI sensors operating at frequencies <= 20 kHz offers the possibility of using a fast linear deconvolution method to interpret multichannel data sets in three dimensions. Here, we have developed a fast 3D inversion/deconvolution method regularized with 3D smoothness constraints and formulated in the hybrid spectral-spatial domain. Compared with other linear approaches, the spectral-spatial domain formulation significantly reduces the computational cost of the processing and opens the door for real-time 3D interpretation of large data sets consisting of more than 100,000 data points. First, we test our proposed algorithm on synthetic data sets computed with the full Maxwell theory. Then, we apply our method to a real four-configuration EMI data set acquired to map the thickness of peat layers embedded in a sandy environment. For the synthetic and the field example, we compared our result with the result obtained using a standard point-by-point 1D nonlinear inversion approach. This comparison demonstrates that the proposed methodology provides superior lateral resolution compared with the 1D nonlinear inversion, at the same time significantly reducing the computational cost of the processing.
High-pressure/low-temperature (HP/LT) chloritoid-bearing micaschists crop out widely in the central part of northern Turkey and represent deep-seated subduction-accretionary complexes. Three peak metamorphic assemblages are identified in the area studied: (1) garnet-chloritoid-glaucophane with pseudomorphs after lawsonite; (2) chloritoid with pseudomorphs after glaucophane; and (3) chloritoid with pseudomorphs after jadeite in addition to phengite, paragonite, quartz, chlorite, rutile, and apatite. The latter is interpreted as transformation of a chloritoid + glaucophane assemblage to chloritoid + jadeite with increasing pressure; PT modeling indicates similar to 17 and 22-25 kbars for the two peak parageneses. The diversity of peak metamorphic assemblages and the PT estimates suggest that basal accretion occurred at different depths within the wedge. The depth of the basal accretion is possibly controlled by the slab-mantle decoupling depth. Stretching and thinning of the lithospheric fore arc induced by the slab rollback possibly caused shallowing of the slab-mantle decoupling depth which limited depth of the basal accretion from 70-80km to similar to 55km within the subduction channel. A slab-mantle coupling depth-controlled basal accretion may also explain the scarcity of eclogite and high-grade blueschist facies metamorphic rocks in active intraoceanic subduction zones. Because the overriding plate is young and hot in intraoceanic subductions, the slab and mantle are coupled at a relatively shallow depth before eclogitization of the oceanic crust. This prevents accretion and exhumation of eclogite along the subduction channel.
The increasing numbers of recordings at individual sites allows quantification of empirical linear site-response adjustment factors (delta S2S(s)) from the ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) residuals. The delta S2S(s) are then used to linearly scale the ergodic GMPE predictions to obtain site-specific ground motion predictions in a partially non-ergodic Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA). To address key statistical and conceptual issues in the current practice, we introduce a novel empirical region-and site-specific PSHA methodology wherein, (1) site-to-site variability (phi(S2S)) is first estimated as a random-variance in a mixed-effects GMPE regression, (2) delta S2S(s) at new sites with strong motion are estimated using the a priori phi(S2S), and (3) the GMPE site-specific single-site aleatory variability sigma(ss,s) is replaced with a generic site-corrected aleatory variability sigma(0). Comparison of region- and site-specific hazard curves from our method against the traditional ergodic estimates at 225 sites in Europe and Middle East shows an approximate 50% difference in predicted ground motions over a range of hazard levels-a strong motivation to increase seismological monitoring of critical facilities and enrich regional ground motion data sets.
Site-Corrected Magnitude- and Region-Dependent Correlations of Horizontal Peak Spectral Amplitudes
(2017)
Empirical correlations of horizontal peak spectral amplitudes (PSA) are modeled using the total-residuals obtained in a ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) regression. Recent GMPEs moved toward partially non-ergodic region-and site-specific predictions, while the residual correlation models remained largely ergodic. Using mixed-effects regression, we decompose the total-residuals of a pan-European GMPE into between-event, between-site, and event-and-site corrected residuals to investigate the ergodicity in empirical PSA correlations. We first observed that the between-event correlations are magnitude-dependent, partially due to the differences in source spectra, and influence of stress-drop parameter on small and large events. Next, removing the between-site residuals from within-event residuals yields the event-and-site corrected residuals which are found to be region-dependent, possibly due to the regional differences in distance-decay of short period PSAs. Using our site-corrected magnitude- and region-dependent correlations, and the between-site residuals as empirical site-specific ground motion adjustments, we compute partially non-ergodic conditional mean spectra at four well-recorded sites in Europe and Middle Eastern regions.
Flow patterns in conjunction with seasonal and diurnal temperature variations control ecological and biogeochemical conditions in hyporheic sediments. In particular, hyporheic temperatures have a great impact on many temperature-sensitive microbial processes. In this study, we used 3-D coupled water flow and heat transport simulations applying the HydroGeoSphere code in combination with high-resolution observations of hydraulic heads and temperatures to quantify reach-scale water and heat flux across the river-groundwater interface and hyporheic temperature dynamics of a lowland gravel bed river. The model was calibrated in order to constrain estimates of the most sensitive model parameters. The magnitude and variations of the simulated temperatures matched the observed ones, with an average mean absolute error of 0.7 degrees C and an average Nash Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.87. Our results indicate that nonsubmerged streambed structures such as gravel bars cause substantial thermal heterogeneity within the saturated sediment at the reach scale. Individual hyporheic flow path temperatures strongly depend on the flow path residence time, flow path depth, river, and groundwater temperature. Variations in individual hyporheic flow path temperatures were up to 7.9 degrees C, significantly higher than the daily average (2.8 degrees C), but still lower than the average seasonal hyporheic temperature difference (19.2 degrees C). The distribution between flow path temperatures and residence times follows a power law relationship with exponent of about 0.37. Based on this empirical relation, we further estimated the influence of hyporheic flow path residence time and temperature on oxygen consumption which was found to partly increase by up to 29% in simulations.
In Porisdalur valley, a small relict of a sedimentary body was identified in southeastern Iceland. It probably represents a remnant of the deep, tectonically arranged paleolake (Late Miocene, 8-9 Ma), and filled by volcaniclastic material from nearby, active volcanic centers. In the profile of tuffitic sandstone, siltstone and claystone, the ripple-bedding layers, molds and flute casts indicate periodic mass flow episodes. In the sedimentary profile, the characteristic arrangement of sediments is evident, showing features of the Bouma sequences. In the claystone layers, deposited during episodes of lowest kinetic energy, a specific ichnoassemblage was found, represented by Thorichnus ramosus igen. et isp. nov., T. corniculatus igen. et isp. nov., Mammillichnis jakubi isp. nov., Helminthoidichnites multilaqueatus comb. nov., Vamaspor jachymi igen. et isp. nov. and five preliminarily identified trace fossils. The assemblage belongs to Mermia ichnofacies, the nonmarine representative of an ichnofacies, developed in a turbiditic environment; most of identified trace fossils are so far endemic. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Temperature is a key factor controlling plant growth and vitality in the temperate climates of the mid-latitudes like in vast parts of the European continent. Beyond the effect of average conditions, the timings and magnitudes of temperature extremes play a particularly crucial role, which needs to be better understood in the context of projected future rises in the frequency and/or intensity of such events. In this work, we employ event coincidence analysis (ECA) to quantify the likelihood of simultaneous occurrences of extremes in daytime land surface temperature anomalies (LSTAD) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We perform this analysis for entire Europe based upon remote sensing data, differentiating between three periods corresponding to different stages of plant development during the growing season. In addition, we analyze the typical elevation and land cover type of the regions showing significantly large event coincidences rates to identify the most severely affected vegetation types. Our results reveal distinct spatio-temporal impact patterns in terms of extraordinarily large co-occurrence rates between several combinations of temperature and NDVI extremes. Croplands are among the most frequently affected land cover types, while elevation is found to have only a minor effect on the spatial distribution of corresponding extreme weather impacts. These findings provide important insights into the vulnerability of European terrestrial ecosystems to extreme temperature events and demonstrate how event-based statistics like ECA can provide a valuable perspective on environmental nexuses.
Tidal marsh vegetation offers important ecosystem services. However, in many estuaries, extensive embankments, artificial bank protection, river dredging and agriculture threaten tidal marshes. In this study we analysed the processes underlying the spatio-temporal patterns of tidal marsh vegetation in the Elbe estuary and quantified the influence of specific habitat factors by developing and applying the process-based dynamic habitat-macrophyte model HaMac in a pattern-oriented way. In order to develop and parameterise the model, we measured a wide range of biotic and abiotic parameters in two study sites in the Elbe estuary and compared observed and simulated patterns. The final model is able to reproduce the general patterns of vegetation zonation, development and growth and thus helps to understand the underlying processes. By considering the vegetative reproduction of marsh plants as well as abiotic influence factors and intraspecific competition, HaMac allowed to systematically analyse the significance of factors and processes for the dynamic of tidal marsh vegetation. Our results show that rhizome growth is the most important process and that flow velocity, inundation height and duration as well as intraspecific competition are the most important habitat factors for explaining spatio-temporal dynamics of brackish marshes. Future applications of HaMac could support the sustainable development and stabilisation of shore zones and thus contribute to the promotion and planning of ecosystem -based shoreline protection measures. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Eleven inverse isochron ages from total fusion and three from stepwise heating analyses fit the age model. Four experiments resulted in older inverse isochron ages that do not concur with the model within 2 sigma uncertainties and that deviate from 1 ka to 17 ka minimum. C-and R-type zoning are interpreted as representing growth in magma chamber cupolas, as wall mushes, or in narrow conduits. Persistent compositions of PO-type crystals and abundant surfaces recording dissolution features correspond to formation within a magma chamber. C-type zoning and R-type zoning have revealed an irregular incorporation of melt and fluid inclusions. These two types of zoning in feldspar are interpreted as preferentially contributing either heterogeneously distributed excess Ar-40 or inherited Ar-40 to the deviating Ar-40/Ar-39 ages that are discussed in this study. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
In hydrological models, parameters are used to represent the time-invariant characteristics of catchments and to capture different aspects of hydrological response. Hence, model parameters need to be identified based on their role in controlling the hydrological behaviour. For the identification of meaningful parameter values, multiple and complementary performance criteria are used that compare modelled and measured discharge time series. The reliability of the identification of hydrologically meaningful model parameter values depends on how distinctly a model parameter can be assigned to one of the performance criteria.& para;& para;To investigate this, we introduce the new concept of connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria. The connective strength assesses the intensity in the interrelationship between model parameters and performance criteria in a bijective way. In our analysis of connective strength, model simulations are carried out based on a latin hypercube sampling. Ten performance criteria including Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) and its three components (alpha, beta and r) as well as RSR (the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation) for different segments of the flow duration curve (FDC) are calculated.& para;& para;With a joint analysis of two regression tree (RT) approaches, we derive how a model parameter is connected to different performance criteria. At first, RTs are constructed using each performance criterion as the target variable to detect the most relevant model parameters for each performance criterion. Secondly, RTs are constructed using each parameter as the target variable to detect which performance criteria are impacted by changes in the values of one distinct model parameter. Based on this, appropriate performance criteria are identified for each model parameter.& para;& para;In this study, a high bijective connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria is found for low- and mid-flow conditions. Moreover, the RT analyses emphasise the benefit of an individual analysis of the three components of KGE and of the FDC segments. Furthermore, the RT analyses highlight under which conditions these performance criteria provide insights into precise parameter identification. Our results show that separate performance criteria are required to identify dominant parameters on low- and mid-flow conditions, whilst the number of required performance criteria for high flows increases with increasing process complexity in the catchment. Overall, the analysis of the connective strength between model parameters and performance criteria using RTs contribute to a more realistic handling of parameters and performance criteria in hydrological modelling.
Water keeps puzzling scientists because of its numerous properties which behave oppositely to those of usual liquids: for instance, water expands upon cooling, and liquid water is denser than ice. To explain this anomalous behavior, several theories have been proposed, with different predictions for the properties of supercooled water (liquid at conditions where ice is stable). However, discriminating between those theories with experiments has remained elusive because of spontaneous ice nucleation. Here we measure the sound velocity in liquid water stretched to negative pressure and derive an experimental equation of state, which reveals compressibility anomalies. We show by rigorous thermodynamic relations how these anomalies are intricately linked with the density anomaly. Some features we observe are necessary conditions for the validity of two theories of water.
Understanding the evolution of continental deformation zones relies on quantifying spatial and temporal changes in deformation rates of tectonic structures. Along the eastern boundary of the Pamir-Tian Shan collision zone, we constrain secular variations of rock uplift rates for a series of five Quaternary detachment- and fault-related folds from their initiation to the modern day. When combined with GPS data, decomposition of interferometric synthetic aperture radar time series constrains the spatial pattern of surface and rock uplift on the folds deforming at decadal rates of 1-5mm/yr. These data confirm the previously proposed basinward propagation of structures during the Quaternary. By fitting our geodetic rates and previously published geologic uplift rates with piecewise linear functions, we find that gradual rate changes over >100kyr can explain the interferometric synthetic aperture radar observations where changes in average uplift rates are greater than similar to 1 mm/yr among different time intervals (similar to 10(1), 10(4-5), and 10(5-6) years).
Flood damage can be mitigated if the parties at risk are reached by flood warnings and if they know how to react appropriately. To gain more knowledge about warning reception and emergency response of private households and companies, surveys were undertaken after the August 2002 and the June 2013 floods in Germany. Despite pronounced regional differences, the results show a clear overall picture: in 2002, early warnings did not work well; e.g. many households (27 %) and companies (45 %) stated that they had not received any flood warnings. Additionally, the preparedness of private households and companies was low in 2002, mainly due to a lack of flood experience. After the 2002 flood, many initiatives were launched and investments undertaken to improve flood risk management, including early warnings and an emergency response in Germany. In 2013, only a small share of the affected households (5 %) and companies (3 %) were not reached by any warnings. Additionally, private households and companies were better prepared. For instance, the share of companies which have an emergency plan in place has increased from 10% in 2002 to 34% in 2013. However, there is still room for improvement, which needs to be triggered mainly by effective risk and emergency communication. The challenge is to continuously maintain and advance an integrated early warning and emergency response system even without the occurrence of extreme floods.