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Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.
Debate persists concerning the timing and geodynamics of intercontinental collision, style of syncollisional deformation, and development of topography and fold-and-thrust belts along the >1,700-km-long Izmir-Ankara-Erzincan suture zone (IAESZ) in Turkey. Resolving this debate is a necessary precursor to evaluating the integrity of convergent margin models and kinematic, topographic, and biogeographic reconstructions of the Mediterranean domain. Geodynamic models argue either for a synchronous or diachronous collision during either the Late Cretaceous and/or Eocene, followed by Eocene slab breakoff and postcollisional magmatism. We investigate the collision chronology in western Anatolia as recorded in the sedimentary archives of the 90-km-long Saricakaya Basin perched at shallow structural levels along the IAESZ. Based on new zircon U-Pb geochronology and depositional environment and sedimentary provenance results, we demonstrate that the Saricakaya Basin is an Eocene sedimentary basin with sediment sourced from both the IAESZ and Sogut Thrust fault to the south and north, respectively, and formed primarily by flexural loading from north-south shortening along the syncollisional Sogut Thrust. Our results refine the timing of collision between the Anatolides and Pontide terranes in western Anatolia to Maastrichtian-Middle Paleocene and Early Eocene crustal shortening and basin formation. Furthermore, we demonstrate contemporaneous collision, deformation, and magmatism across the IAESZ, supporting synchronous collision models. We show that regional postcollisional magmatism can be explained by renewed underthrusting instead of slab breakoff. This new IAESZ chronology provides additional constraints for kinematic, geodynamic, and biogeographic reconstructions of the Mediterranean domain.
Located along the Izmir-Ankara-Erzincan Suture (IAES), the Maastrichtian - Paleogene Orhaniye Basin has yielded a highly enigmatic-yet poorly dated- Paleogene mammal fauna, the endemic character of which has suggested high faunal provincialism associated with paleogeographic isolation of the Anatolian landmass during the early Cenozoic. Despite its biogeographic significance, the tectono-stratigraphic history of the Orhaniye Basin has been poorly documented; Here, we combine sedimentary, magnetostratigraphic, and geochronological data to infer the chronology and depositional history of the Orhaniye Basin. We then assess how our new data and interpretations for the Orhaniye Basin impact (1) the timing and mechanisms of seaway closure along the IAES and (2) the biogeographic evolution of Anatolia. Our results show that the Orhaniye Basin initially developed as a forearc basin during the Maastrichtian, before shifting to a retroarc foreland basin setting sometime between the early Paleocene and 44 Ma. This chronology supports a two-step scenario for the assemblage of the central Anatolian landmass, with incipient collision during the Paleocene - Early Eocene and final seaway retreat along the IAES during the earliest Late Eocene after the last marine incursion into the foreland basin. Our dating for the Orhaniye mammal fauna (44-43 Ma) indicates the persistence of faunal endemism in northern Anatolia until at least the late Lutetian despite the advanced stage of IAES closure. The tectonic evolution of dispersal corridors linking northern Anatolia with adjacent parts of Eurasia was not directly associated with IAES closure and consecutive uplifts, but rather with the build-up of continental bridges on the margins of Anatolia, in the Alpine and Tibetan-Himalayan orogens.