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Assimilation of pseudo-tree-ring-width observations into an atmospheric general circulation model
(2017)
Paleoclimate data assimilation (DA) is a promising technique to systematically combine the information from climate model simulations and proxy records. Here, we investigate the assimilation of tree-ring-width (TRW) chronologies into an atmospheric global climate model using ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) techniques and a process-based tree-growth forward model as an observation operator. Our results, within a perfect-model experiment setting, indicate that the "online DA" approach did not outperform the "off-line" one, despite its considerable additional implementation complexity. On the other hand, it was observed that the nonlinear response of tree growth to surface temperature and soil moisture does deteriorate the operation of the time-averaged EnKF methodology. Moreover, for the first time we show that this skill loss appears significantly sensitive to the structure of the growth rate function, used to represent the principle of limiting factors (PLF) within the forward model. In general, our experiments showed that the error reduction achieved by assimilating pseudo-TRW chronologies is modulated by the magnitude of the yearly internal variability in themodel. This result might help the dendrochronology community to optimize their sampling efforts.
Towards the assimilation of tree-ring-width records using ensemble Kalman filtering techniques
(2015)
This paper investigates the applicability of the Vaganov–Shashkin–Lite (VSL) forward model for tree-ring-width chronologies as observation operator within a proxy data assimilation (DA) setting. Based on the principle of limiting factors, VSL combines temperature and moisture time series in a nonlinear fashion to obtain simulated TRW chronologies. When used as observation operator, this modelling approach implies three compounding, challenging features: (1) time averaging, (2) “switching recording” of 2 variables and (3) bounded response windows leading to “thresholded response”. We generate pseudo-TRW observations from a chaotic 2-scale dynamical system, used as a cartoon of the atmosphere-land system, and attempt to assimilate them via ensemble Kalman filtering techniques. Results within our simplified setting reveal that VSL’s nonlinearities may lead to considerable loss of assimilation skill, as compared to the utilization of a time-averaged (TA) linear observation operator. In order to understand this undesired effect, we embed VSL’s formulation into the framework of fuzzy logic (FL) theory, which thereby exposes multiple representations of the principle of limiting factors. DA experiments employing three alternative growth rate functions disclose a strong link between the lack of smoothness of the growth rate function and the loss of optimality in the estimate of the TA state. Accordingly, VSL’s performance as observation operator can be enhanced by resorting to smoother FL representations of the principle of limiting factors. This finding fosters new interpretations of tree-ring-growth limitation processes.
Subsurface microbial communities undertake many terminal electron-accepting processes, often simultaneously. Using a tritium-based assay, we measured the potential hydrogen oxidation catalyzed by hydrogenase enzymes in several subsurface sedimentary environments (Lake Van, Barents Sea, Equatorial Pacific, and Gulf of Mexico) with different predominant electron-acceptors. Hydrogenases constitute a diverse family of enzymes expressed by microorganisms that utilize molecular hydrogen as a metabolic substrate, product, or intermediate. The assay reveals the potential for utilizing molecular hydrogen and allows qualitative detection of microbial activity irrespective of the predominant electron-accepting process. Because the method only requires samples frozen immediately after recovery, the assay can be used for identifying microbial activity in subsurface ecosystems without the need to preserve live material. We measured potential hydrogen oxidation rates in all samples from multiple depths at several sites that collectively span a wide range of environmental conditions and biogeochemical zones. Potential activity normalized to total cell abundance ranges over five orders of magnitude and varies, dependent upon the predominant terminal electron acceptor. Lowest per-cell potential rates characterize the zone of nitrate reduction and highest per-cell potential rates occur in the methanogenic zone. Possible reasons for this relationship to predominant electron acceptor include (i) increasing importance of fermentation in successively deeper biogeochemical zones and (ii) adaptation of H(2)ases to successively higher concentrations of H-2 in successively deeper zones.
The temporal dynamics of climate processes are spread across different timescales and, as such, the study of these processes at only one selected timescale might not reveal the complete mechanisms and interactions within and between the (sub-) processes. To capture the non-linear interactions between climatic events, the method of event synchronization has found increasing attention recently. The main drawback with the present estimation of event synchronization is its restriction to analysing the time series at one reference timescale only. The study of event synchronization at multiple scales would be of great interest to comprehend the dynamics of the investigated climate processes. In this paper, the wavelet-based multi-scale event synchronization (MSES) method is proposed by combining the wavelet transform and event synchronization. Wavelets are used extensively to comprehend multi-scale processes and the dynamics of processes across various timescales. The proposed method allows the study of spatio-temporal patterns across different timescales. The method is tested on synthetic and real-world time series in order to check its replicability and applicability. The results indicate that MSES is able to capture relationships that exist between processes at different timescales.
Central Asia is located at the confluence of large-scale atmospheric circulation systems. It is thus likely to be highly susceptible to changes in the dynamics of those systems; however, little is still known about the regional paleoclimate history. Here we present carbon and hydrogen isotopic compositions of n-alkanoic acids from a late Holocene sediment core from Lake Karakuli (eastern Pamir, Xinjiang Province, China). Instrumental evidence and isotopeenabled climate model experiments with the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique Zoom model version 4 (LMDZ4) demonstrate that delta D values of precipitation in the region are influenced by both temperature and precipitation amount. We find that these parameters are inversely correlated on an annual scale, i.e., the climate has varied between relatively cool and wet and more warm and dry over the last 50 years. Since the isotopic signals of these changes are in the same direction and therefore additive, isotopes in precipitation are sensitive recorders of climatic changes in the region. Additionally, we infer that plants use year-round precipitation (including snowmelt), and thus leaf wax delta D values must also respond to shifts in the proportion of moisture derived from westerly storms during late winter and early spring. Downcore results give evidence for a gradual shift to cooler and wetter climates between 3.5 and 2.5 cal kyr BP, interrupted by a warm and dry episode between 3.0 and 2.7 kyr BP. Further cool and wet episodes occur between 1.9 and 1.5 and between 0.6 and 0.1 kyr BP, the latter coeval with the Little Ice Age. Warm and dry episodes from 2.5 to 1.9 and 1.5 to 0.6 kyr BP coincide with the Roman Warm Period and Medieval Climate Anomaly, respectively. Finally, we find a drying tend in recent decades. Regional comparisons lead us to infer that the strength and position of the westerlies, and wider northern hemispheric climate dynamics, control climatic shifts in arid Central Asia, leading to complex local responses. Our new archive from Lake Karakuli provides a detailed record of the local signatures of these climate transitions in the eastern Pamir.
Background
Riociguat is the first of a new class of drugs, the soluble guanylate cyclase (sGC) stimulators. Riociguat has a dual mode of action: it sensitizes sGC to the body’s own NO and can also increase sGC activity in the absence of NO. The NO-sGC-pathway is impaired in many cardiovascular diseases such as heart failure, pulmonary hypertension and diabetic nephropathy (DN). DN leads to high cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. There is still a high unmet medical need. The urinary albumin excretion rate is a predictive biomarker for these clinical events. Therefore, we investigated the effect of riociguat, alone and in combination with the angiotensin II receptor antagonist (ARB) telmisartan on the progression of DN in diabetic eNOS knock out mice, a new model closely resembling human pathology.
Methods
Seventy-six male eNOS knockout C57BL/6J mice were divided into 4 groups after receiving intraperitoneal high-dose streptozotocin: telmisartan (1 mg/kg), riociguat (3 mg/kg), riociguat+telmisartan (3 and 1 mg/kg), and vehicle. Fourteen mice were used as non-diabetic controls. After 12 weeks, urine and blood were obtained and blood pressure measured. Glucose concentrations were highly increased and similar in all diabetic groups.
Results
Riociguat, alone (105.2 ± 2.5 mmHg; mean±SEM; n = 14) and in combination with telmisartan (105.0 ± 3.2 mmHg; n = 12), significantly reduced blood pressure versus diabetic controls (117.1 ± 2.2 mmHg; n = 14; p = 0.002 and p = 0.004, respectively), whereas telmisartan alone (111.2 ± 2.6 mmHg) showed a modest blood pressure lowering trend (p = 0.071; n = 14). The effects of single treatment with either riociguat (97.1 ± 15.7 µg/d; n = 13) or telmisartan (97.8 ± 26.4 µg/d; n = 14) did not significantly lower albumin excretion on its own (p = 0.067 and p = 0.101, respectively). However, the combined treatment led to significantly lower urinary albumin excretion (47.3 ± 9.6 µg/d; n = 12) compared to diabetic controls (170.8 ± 34.2 µg/d; n = 13; p = 0.004), and reached levels similar to non-diabetic controls (31.4 ± 10.1 µg/d, n = 12).
Conclusion
Riociguat significantly reduced urinary albumin excretion in diabetic eNOS knock out mice that were refractory to treatment with ARB’s alone. Patients with diabetic nephropathy refractory to treatment with ARB’s have the worst prognosis among all patients with diabetic nephropathy. Our data indicate that additional stimulation of sGC on top of standard treatment with ARB`s may offer a new therapeutic approach for patients with diabetic nephropathy resistant to ARB treatment.
Climate impacts on transocean dispersal and habitat in gray whales from the Pleistocene to 2100
(2015)
Arctic animals face dramatic habitat alteration due to ongoing climate change. Understanding how such species have responded to past glacial cycles can help us forecast their response to today's changing climate. Gray whales are among those marine species likely to be strongly affected by Arctic climate change, but a thorough analysis of past climate impacts on this species has been complicated by lack of information about an extinct population in the Atlantic. While little is known about the history of Atlantic gray whales or their relationship to the extant Pacific population, the extirpation of the Atlantic population during historical times has been attributed to whaling. We used a combination of ancient and modern DNA, radiocarbon dating and predictive habitat modelling to better understand the distribution of gray whales during the Pleistocene and Holocene. Our results reveal that dispersal between the Pacific and Atlantic was climate dependent and occurred both during the Pleistocene prior to the last glacial period and the early Holocene immediately following the opening of the Bering Strait. Genetic diversity in the Atlantic declined over an extended interval that predates the period of intensive commercial whaling, indicating this decline may have been precipitated by Holocene climate or other ecological causes. These first genetic data for Atlantic gray whales, particularly when combined with predictive habitat models for the year 2100, suggest that two recent sightings of gray whales in the Atlantic may represent the beginning of the expansion of this species' habitat beyond its currently realized range.
Genetic studies of the Eurasian brown bear (Ursus arctos) have so far focused on populations from Europe and North America, although the largest distribution area of brown bears is in Asia. In this study, we reveal population genetic parameters for the brown bear population inhabiting the Grand Kaçkar Mountains (GKM) in the north east of Turkey, western Lesser Caucasus. Using both hair (N = 147) and tissue samples (N = 7) collected between 2008 and 2014, we found substantial levels of genetic variation (10 microsatellite loci). Bear samples (hair) taken from rubbing trees worked better for genotyping than those from power poles, regardless of the year collected. Genotyping also revealed that bears moved between habitat patches, despite ongoing massive habitat alterations and the creation of large water reservoirs. This population has the potential to serve as a genetic reserve for future reintroductions in the Middle East. Due to the importance of the GKM population for on-going and future conservation actions, the impacts of habitat alterations in the region ought to be minimized; e.g., by establishing green bridges or corridors over reservoirs and major roads to maintain habitat connectivity and gene flow among populations in the Lesser Caucasus.