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We isolated and characterized 16 new di- and tetranudeotide microsatellite markers for the critically endangered Asian box turtle genus Cuora, focusing on the "Cuora trifasciata" species complex. The new markers were then used to analyse genetic variability and divergence amongst five described species within this complex, namely C. aurocapitata (n = 18), C. cyclornata (n = 31), C. pani (n = 6), C. trifasciata (n = 58), and C. zhoui (n = 7). Our results support the view that all five species represent valid taxa. Within two species (C. trifasciata and C. cyclornata), two distinct morphotypes were corroborated by microsatellite divergence. For three individuals, morphologically identified as being of hybrid origin, the hybrid status was confirmed by our genetic analysis. Our results confirm the controversial species (Cuora aurocapitata, C. cyclornata) and subspecies/morphotypes (C. cyclornata meieri, C. trifasciata cf. trifasciata) to be genetically distinct, which has critical implications for conservation strategies.
Within the framework of the international DESIRE (DEad Sea Integrated REsearch) project, a dense temporary local seismological network was operated in the southern Dead Sea area. During 18 recording months, 648 events were detected. Based on an already published tomography study clustering, focal mechanisms, statistics and the distribution of the microseismicity in relation to the velocity models from the tomography are analysed. The determined b value of 0.74 leads to a relatively high risk of large earthquakes compared to the moderate microseismic activity. The distribution of the seismicity indicates an asymmetric basin with a vertical strike-slip fault forming the eastern boundary of the basin, and an inclined western boundary, made up of strike-slip and normal faults. Furthermore, significant differences between the area north and south of the Bokek fault were observed. South of the Bokek fault, the western boundary is inactive while the entire seismicity occurs on the eastern boundary and below the basin-fill sediments. The largest events occurred here, and their focal mechanisms represent the northwards transform motion of the Arabian plate along the Dead Sea Transform. The vertical extension of the spatial and temporal cluster from February 2007 is interpreted as being related to the locking of the region around the Bokek fault. North of the Bokek fault similar seismic activity occurs on both boundaries most notably within the basin-fill sediments, displaying mainly small events with strike-slip mechanism and normal faulting in EW direction. Therefore, we suggest that the Bokek fault forms the border between the single transform fault and the pull-apart basin with two active border faults.
The cultivation of plants for use as energy resources is an agricultural and industrial sector with potentially synergistic benefits related to protecting the environment and generating income. Against the background of increasing land-use changes and new agricultural approaches to the production of energy crops, we present a method for identifying future-oriented crop rotations that supports both the economic and environmental components of decision-making strategies with respect to agriculture-related policy decisions (regional mission statements). The conflicting aspects of these objectives can be addressed with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multi-attribute decision-making method that was integrated here. Three models are used to generate simulations of the defined objectives over a planning period of 30 years under the current climate scenario and provide input data for the multi-attribute assessment of several crop rotations. Based on the entire evaluation process, dimensionless global priority vectors are used to indicate how well the crop rotations meet the requirements of the defined mission statement. The method is tested in a municipality in NE Germany. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The strong present-day Asian monsoons are thought to have originated between 25 and 22 million years (Myr) ago, driven by Tibetan-Himalayan uplift. However, the existence of older Asian monsoons and their response to enhanced greenhouse conditions such as those in the Eocene period (55-34Myrago) are unknown because of the paucity of well-dated records. Here we show late Eocene climate records revealing marked monsoon-like patterns in rainfall and wind south and north of the Tibetan-Himalayan orogen. This is indicated by low oxygen isotope values with strong seasonality in gastropod shells and mammal teeth from Myanmar, and by aeolian dust deposition in northwest China. Our climate simulations support modern-like Eocene monsoonal rainfall and show that a reinforced hydrological cycle responding to enhanced greenhouse conditions counterbalanced the negative effect of lower Tibetan relief on precipitation. These strong monsoons later weakened with the global shift to icehouse conditions 34 Myr ago.
Late Holocene glacier variations in westernmost Tibetan Plateau were studied based on the analysis of grain size, magnetic susceptibility, and elements from an 8.3m long distal glaciolacustrine sediment core of Kalakuli Lake. Our results show that there are four glacier expansion episodes occurring in 4200-3700calibrated years (cal years) B.P., 2950-2300cal years B.P., 1700-1070cal years B.P., and 570-100cal years B.P. and four glacier retreat periods of 3700-2950cal years B.P., 2300-1700cal years B.P., 1070-570cal years B.P., and 50cal years B.P.-present. The four glacier expansion episodes are generally in agreement with the glacier activities indicted by the moraines at Muztagh Ata and Kongur Shan, as well as with the late Holocene ice-rafting events in the North Atlantic. Over the last 2000years, our reconstructed glacier variations are in temporal agreement with reconstructed temperature from China and the Northern Hemisphere, indicating that glacier variations at centennial time scales are very sensitive to temperature in western Tibetan Plateau.
After more than a decade of multidisciplinary studies of the Central American subduction zone mainly in the framework of two large research programmes, the US MARGINS program and the German Collaborative Research Center SFB 574, we here review and interpret the data pertinent to quantify the cycling of mineral-bound volatiles (H2O, CO2, Cl, S) through this subduction system. For input-flux calculations, we divide the Middle America Trench into four segments differing in convergence rate and slab lithological profiles, use the latest evidence for mantle serpentinization of the Cocos slab approaching the trench, and for the first time explicitly include subduction erosion of forearc basement. Resulting input fluxes are 40-62 (53) Tg/Ma/m H2O, 7.8-11.4 (9.3) Tg/Ma/m CO2, 1.3-1.9 (1.6) Tg/Ma/m Cl, and 1.3-2.1 (1.6) Tg/Ma/m S (bracketed are mean values for entire trench length). Output by cold seeps on the forearc amounts to 0.625-1.25 Tg/Ma/m H2O partly derived from the slab sediments as determined by geochemical analyses of fluids and carbonates. The major volatile output occurs at the Central American volcanic arc that is divided into ten arc segments by dextral strike-slip tectonics. Based on volcanic edifice and widespread tephra volumes as well as calculated parental magma masses needed to form observed evolved compositions, we determine long-term (10(5) years) average magma and K2O fluxes for each of the ten segments as 32-242 (106) Tg/Ma/m magma and 0.28-2.91 (1.38) Tg/Ma/m K2O (bracketed are mean values for entire Central American volcanic arc length). Volatile/K2O concentration ratios derived from melt inclusion analyses and petrologic modelling then allow to calculate volatile fluxes as 1.02-14.3 (6.2) Tg/Ma/m H2O, 0.02-0.45 (0.17) Tg/Ma/m CO2, and 0.07-0.34 (0.22) Tg/Ma/m Cl. The same approach yields long-term sulfur fluxes of 0.12-1.08 (0.54) Tg/Ma/m while present-day open-vent SO2-flux monitoring yields 0.06-2.37 (0.83) Tg/Ma/m S. Input-output comparisons show that the arc water fluxes only account for up to 40 % of the input even if we include an "invisible" plutonic component constrained by crustal growth. With 20-30 % of the H2O input transferred into the deeper mantle as suggested by petrologic modeling, there remains a deficiency of, say, 30-40 % in the water budget. At least some of this water is transferred into two upper-plate regions of low seismic velocity and electrical resistivity whose sizes vary along arc: one region widely envelopes the melt ascent paths from slab top to arc and the other extends obliquely from the slab below the forearc to below the arc. Whether these reservoirs are transient or steady remains unknown.
This study examines the course and driving forces of recent vegetation change in the Mongolian steppe. A sediment core covering the last 55years from a small closed-basin lake in central Mongolia was analyzed for its multi-proxy record at annual resolution. Pollen analysis shows that highest abundances of planted Poaceae and highest vegetation diversity occurred during 1977-1992, reflecting agricultural development in the lake area. A decrease in diversity and an increase in Artemisia abundance after 1992 indicate enhanced vegetation degradation in recent times, most probably because of overgrazing and farmland abandonment. Human impact is the main factor for the vegetation degradation within the past decades as revealed by a series of redundancy analyses, while climate change and soil erosion play subordinate roles. High Pediastrum (a green algae) influx, high atomic total organic carbon/total nitrogen (TOC/TN) ratios, abundant coarse detrital grains, and the decrease of C-13(org) and N-15 since about 1977 but particularly after 1992 indicate that abundant terrestrial organic matter and nutrients were transported into the lake and caused lake eutrophication, presumably because of intensified land use. Thus, we infer that the transition to a market economy in Mongolia since the early 1990s not only caused dramatic vegetation degradation but also affected the lake ecosystem through anthropogenic changes in the catchment area.
Current evidence suggests that all of the major events in hominin evolution have occurred in East Africa. Over the last two decades, there has been intensive work undertaken to understand African palaeoclimate and tectonics in order to put together a coherent picture of how the environment of East Africa has varied in the past. The landscape of East Africa has altered dramatically over the last 10 million years. It has changed from a relatively flat, homogenous region covered with mixed tropical forest, to a varied and heterogeneous environment, with mountains over 4 km high and vegetation ranging from desert to cloud forest. The progressive rifting of East Africa has also generated numerous lake basins, which are highly sensitive to changes in the local precipitation-evaporation regime. There is now evidence that the presence of precession-driven, ephemeral deep-water lakes in East Africa were concurrent with major events in hominin evolution. It seems the unusual geology and climate of East Africa created periods of highly variable local climate, which, it has been suggested could have driven hominin speciation, encephalisation and dispersal out of Africa. One example is the significant hominin speciation and brain expansion event at -1.8 Ma that seems to have been coeval with the occurrence of highly variable, extensive, deep-water lakes. This complex, climatically very variable setting inspired first the variability selection hypothesis, which was then the basis for the pulsed climate variability hypothesis. The newer of the two suggests that the long-term drying trend in East Africa was punctuated by episodes of short, alternating periods of extreme humidity and aridity. Both hypotheses, together with other key theories of climate-evolution linkages, are discussed in this paper. Though useful the actual evolution mechanisms, which led to early hominins are still unclear and continue to be debated. However, it is clear that an understanding of East African lakes and their palaeoclimate history is required to understand the context within which humans evolved and eventually left East Africa. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
Trees and shrubs in tropical Africa use the C-3 cycle as a carbon fixation pathway during photosynthesis, while grasses and sedges mostly use the C-4 cycle. Leaf-wax lipids from sedimentary archives such as the long-chain n-alkanes (e.g., n-C-27 to n-C-33) inherit carbon isotope ratios that are representative of the carbon fixation pathway. Therefore, n-alkane delta C-13 values are often used to reconstruct past C-3/C-4 composition of vegetation, assuming that the relative proportions of C-3 and C-4 leaf waxes reflect the relative proportions of C-3 and C-4 plants. We have compared the delta C-13 values of n-alkanes from modern C-3 and C-4 plants with previously published values from recent lake sediments and provide a framework for estimating the fractional contribution (areal-based) of C-3 vegetation cover (f(C3)) represented by these sedimentary archives. Samples were collected in Cameroon, across a latitudinal transect that accommodates a wide range of climate zones and vegetation types, as reflected in the progressive northward replacement of C-3-dominated rain forest by C-4-dominated savanna. The C-3 plants analysed were characterised by substantially higher abundances of n-C-29 alkanes and by substantially lower abundances of n-C-33 alkanes than the C-4 plants. Furthermore, the sedimentary delta C-13 values of n-C-29 and n-C-31 alkanes from recent lake sediments in Cameroon (-37.4%) to 26.5%) were generally within the range of delta C-13 values for C-3 plants, even when from sites where C-4 plants dominated the catchment vegetation. In such cases simple linear mixing models fail to accurately reconstruct the relative proportions of C-3 and C-4 vegetation cover when using the delta C-13 values of sedimentary n-alkanes, overestimating the proportion of C-3 vegetation, likely as a consequence of the differences in plant wax production, preservation, transport, and/or deposition between C-3 and C-4 plants. We therefore tested a set of non-linear binary mixing models using delta C-13 values from both C-3 and C-4 vegetation as end-members. The non-linear models included a sigmoid function (sine-squared) that describes small variations in the f(C3) values as the minimum and maximum delta C-13 values are approached, and a hyperbolic function that takes into account the differences between C-3 and C-4 plants discussed above. Model fitting and the estimation of uncertainties were completed using the Monte Carlo algorithm and can be improved by future data addition. Models that provided the best fit with the observed delta C-13 values of sedimentary n-alkanes were either hyperbolic functions or a combination of hyperbolic and sine-squared functions. Such non-linear models may be used to convert delta C-13 measurements on sedimentary n-alkanes directly into reconstructions of C-3 vegetation cover. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Our study presents the results of a moment tensor inversion of 19 microseismic events with M-L between 2.0 and 3.4, associated with the stimulation operation of an enhanced geothermal reservoir in Basel, Switzerland, in 2006. We adopt a three-step procedure to retrieve point source solution parameters based on full waveform inversion. The inversion is performed by fitting displacement amplitude spectra and displacement seismograms in the first and second step, respectively, assuming a double couple source model and thus obtaining focal solutions for all 19 events. Our results are in agreement with focal mechanisms from a previous study, which employed P wave first-motion polarities from more than 40 stations, whereas our solutions are achieved using full waveform data recorded by less than 10 surface stations. In the last step, a full moment tensor inversion is performed. The results from the moment tensor inversion show an improvement on the waveform fitting compared to the double couple models, which is verified by an F-test. We investigate the stability of the moment tensor solutions by employing different velocity models. The isotropic components of the moment tensor solutions of some events are not negligible, suggesting source volume changes due to fluid injection. Events with significant isotropic components occurred mainly during the stimulation phase and close to the injection well. On the other hand, events that occurred in the post-stimulation phase are predominantly pure shear failure and located further away from the well bore. These spatio-temporal patterns can be explained by the influence of pore pressure variations during and after the hydraulic stimulation at the geothermal site. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
AimFossil pollen spectra from lake sediments in central and western Mongolia have been used to interpret past climatic variations, but hitherto no suitable modern pollen-climate calibration set has been available to infer past climate changes quantitatively. We established such a modern pollen dataset and used it to develop a transfer function model that we applied to a fossil pollen record in order to investigate: (1) whether there was a significant moisture response to the Younger Dryas event in north-western Mongolia; and (2) whether the early Holocene was characterized by dry or wet climatic conditions.
LocationCentral and western Mongolia.
MethodsWe analysed pollen data from surface sediments from 90 lakes. A transfer function for mean annual precipitation (P-ann) was developed with weighted averaging partial least squares regression (WA-PLS) and applied to a fossil pollen record from Lake Bayan Nuur (49.98 degrees N, 93.95 degrees E, 932m a.s.l.). Statistical approaches were used to investigate the modern pollen-climate relationships and assess model performance and reconstruction output.
ResultsRedundancy analysis shows that the modern pollen spectra are characteristic of their respective vegetation types and local climate. Spatial autocorrelation and significance tests of environmental variables show that the WA-PLS model for P-ann is the most valid function for our dataset, and possesses the lowest root mean squared error of prediction.
Main conclusionsPrecipitation is the most important predictor of pollen and vegetation distributions in our study area. Our quantitative climate reconstruction indicates a dry Younger Dryas, a relatively dry early Holocene, a wet mid-Holocene and a dry late Holocene.
From November 2006 to January 2010, a sediment trap that was cleared monthly was deployed in Lake Challa, a deep stratified freshwater lake on the eastern slope of Mt. Kilimanjaro in southern Kenya. Geochemical data from sediment trap samples were compared with a broad range of limnological and meteorological parameters to characterize the effect of single parameters on productivity and sedimentation processes in the crater basin. During the southern hemisphere summer (November-March), when the water temperature is high and the lake is biologically productive (nondiatom algae), calcite predominated in the sediment trap samples. During the "long rain" season (March-May) a small amount of organic matter and lithogenic material caused by rainfall appeared. This was followed by the cool and windy months of the southern hemisphere winter (June-October) when diatoms were the main component, indicating a diatom bloom initiated by improvement of nutrient availability related to upwelling processes. The sediment trap data support the hypothesis that the light-dark lamination couplets, which are abundant in Lake Challa cores, reflect seasonal delivery to the sediments of diatom-rich particulates during the windy months and diatom-poor material during the wet season. However, interannual and spatial variability in upwelling and productivity patterns, as well as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related rainfall and drought cycles, exert a strong influence on the magnitude and geochemical composition of particle export to the hypolimnion of Lake Challa.
The biostratigraphy of Campanian-Maastrichtian carbonate platforms is largely based on the larger foraminiferal genus Orbitoides. However, while the taxonomy and the chronostratigraphic age of the younger species of this genus are well established, there are still many controversies on the earliest species. We have restudied their morphological characters using a large collection of samples from the type-localities and from continuous sections in the southern Pyrenees. Based on these new observations, the long forgotten species O. sanctae-pelagiae is reinstated, while O. dordoniensis is considered a junior synonym. Successive populations of O. hottingeri, O. sanctae-pelagiae and O. douvillei show gradual morphological changes in time marked by an increase in the size and complexity of the macrospheric embryonal apparatus, an increase of the size of the adult specimens of both generations and the progressive appearance and development of true lateral chamberlets. The Font de les Bagasses Unit in the southern Pyrenees preserves a high-resolution archive of the evolution of the earliest Orbitoides. Strontium isotope stratigraphy indicates that the oldest species, O. hottingeri, made its first appearance in the earliest Campanian, close to the Santonian-Campanian boundary, and was replaced by O. sanctae-pelagiae at a level closely corresponding to the boundary between the Placenticeras bidorsatum and Menabites delawarensis ammonite zones. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Pollen records from large lakes have been used for quantitative palaeoclimate reconstruction, but the influences that lake size (as a result of species-specific variations in pollen dispersal patterns that smaller pollen grains are more easily transported to lake centre) and taphonomy have on these climatic signals have not previously been systematically investigated. We introduce the concept of pollen source area to pollen-based climate calibration using the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau as our study area. We present a pollen data set collected from large lakes in the arid to semi-arid region of central Asia. The influences that lake size and the inferred pollen source areas have on pollen compositions have been investigated through comparisons with pollen assemblages in neighbouring lakes of various sizes. Modern pollen samples collected from different parts of Lake Donggi Cona (in the north-eastern part of the Tibetan Plateau) reveal variations in pollen assemblages within this large lake, which are interpreted in terms of the species-specific dispersal and depositional patterns for different types of pollen, and in terms of fluvial input components. We have estimated the pollen source area for each lake individually and used this information to infer modern climate data with which to then develop a modern calibration data set, using both the multivariate regression tree (MRT) and weighted-averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) approaches. Fossil pollen data from Lake Donggi Cona have been used to reconstruct the climate history of the north-eastern part of the Tibetan Plateau since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The meanannual precipitation was quantitatively reconstructed using WA-PLS: extremely dry conditions are found to have dominated the LGM, with annual precipitation of around 100 mm, which is only 32% of present-day precipitation. A gradually increasing trend in moisture conditions during the Late Glacial is terminated by an abrupt reversion to a dry phase that lasts for about 1000 yr and coincides with "Heinrich event 1" in the North Atlantic region. Subsequent periods corresponding to the Bolling/Allerod interstadial, with annual precipitation (P-ann) of about 350 mm, and the Younger Dryas event (about 270 mm P-ann) are followed by moist conditions in the early Holocene, with annual precipitation of up to 400 mm. A drier trend after 9 cal. ka BP is followed by a second wet phase in the middle Holocene, lasting until 4.5 cal. ka BP. Relatively steady conditions with only slight fluctuations then dominate the late Holocene, resulting in the present climatic conditions. The climate changes since the LGM have been primarily driven by deglaciation and fluctuations in the intensity of the Asian summer monsoon that resulted from changes in the Northern Hemisphere summer solar insolation, as well as from changes in the North Atlantic climate through variations in the circulation patterns and intensity of the westerlies.
Grain-size distributions offer powerful proxies of past environmental conditions that are related to sediment sorting processes. However, they are often of multimodal character because sediments can get mixed during deposition. To facilitate the use of grain size as palaeoenvironmental proxy, this study aims to distinguish the main detrital processes that contribute to lacustrine sedimentation across the Tibetan Plateau using grain-size end-member modelling analysis. Between three and five robust grain-size end-member subpopulations were distinguished at different sites from similarly-likely end-member model runs. Their main modes were grouped and linked to common sediment transport and depositional processes that can be associated with contemporary Tibetan climate (precipitation patterns and lake ice phenology, gridded wind and shear stress data from the High Asia Reanalysis) and local catchment configurations. The coarse sands and clays with grain-size modes > 250 mu m and < 2 mu m were probably transported by fluvial processes. Aeolian sands (similar to 200 mu m) and coarse local dust (similar to 60 mu m), transported by saltation and in near-surface suspension clouds, are probably related to occasional westerly storms in winter and spring. Coarse regional dust with modes similar to 25 mu m may derive from near-by sources that keep in longer term suspension. The continuous background dust is differentiated into two robust end members (modes: 5-10 and 2-5 mu m) that may represent different sources, wind directions and/or sediment trapping dynamics from long-range, upper-level westerly and episodic northerly wind transport. According to this study grain-size end members of only fluvial origin contribute small amounts to mean Tibetan lake sedimentation (19 +/- 5%), whereas local to regional aeolian transport and background dust deposition dominate the clastic sedimentation in Tibetan lakes (contributions: 42 +/- 14% and 51 +/- 11%). However, fluvial and alluvial reworking of aeolian material from nearby slopes during summer seems to limit end-member interpretation and should be cross-checked with other proxy information. If not considered as a stand-alone proxy, a high transferability to other regions and sediment archives allows helpful reconstructions of past sedimentation history.
In wetlands or riparian areas, water withdrawal by plants with access to groundwater or the capillary fringe often causes diurnal groundwater fluctuations. Various approaches use the characteristics of these fluctuations for estimation of daily groundwater evapotranspiration rates. The objective of this paper was to review the available methods, compare them with measured evapotranspiration and assess their recharge assumptions. For this purpose, we employed data of 85 rain-free days of a weighable groundwater lysimeter situated at a grassland site in the Spreewald wetland in north-east Germany. Measurements of hourly recharge and daily evapotranspiration rates were used to assess the different approaches. Our results showed that a maximum of 50% of the day to day variance of the daily evapotranspiration rates could be explained by the approaches based on groundwater fluctuations. Simple and more complex methods performed similarly. For some of the approaches, there were indications that erroneous assumptions compensated each other (e.g., when overestimated recharge counteracted underestimated storage change). We found that the usage of longer time spans resulted in improved estimates of the daily recharge rates and that the estimates were further enhanced by including two night averages. When derived from fitting estimates of recharge or evapotranspiration with according measurements the specific yield, needed to convert changes in water level to water volumes, differed considerably among the methods (from 0.022 to 0.064). Thus, the specific yield can be seen as correction factor that compensates for inadequate process descriptions.
This study aims to compare impacts of climate change on streamflow in four large representative African river basins: the Niger, the Upper Blue Nile, the Oubangui and the Limpopo. We set up the eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) for all four basins individually. The validation of the models for four basins shows results from adequate to very good, depending on the quality and availability of input and calibration data.
For the climate impact assessment, we drive the model with outputs of five bias corrected Earth system models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. This climate input is put into the context of climate trends of the whole African continent and compared to a CMIP5 ensemble of 19 models in order to test their representativeness. Subsequently, we compare the trends in mean discharges, seasonality and hydrological extremes in the 21st century. The uncertainty of results for all basins is high. Still, climate change impact is clearly visible for mean discharges but also for extremes in high and low flows. The uncertainty of the projections is the lowest in the Upper Blue Nile, where an increase in streamflow is most likely. In the Niger and the Limpopo basins, the magnitude of trends in both directions is high and has a wide range of uncertainty. In the Oubangui, impacts are the least significant. Our results confirm partly the findings of previous continental impact analyses for Africa. However, contradictory to these studies we find a tendency for increased streamflows in three of the four basins (not for the Oubangui). Guided by these results, we argue for attention to the possible risks of increasing high flows in the face of the dominant water scarcity in Africa. In conclusion, the study shows that impact intercomparisons have added value to the adaptation discussion and may be used for setting up adaptation plans in the context of a holistic approach.
We report the results of our investigations on the catchment area, surface sediments, and hydrology of the monsoonal Lonar Lake, central India. Our results indicate that the lake is currently stratified with an anoxic bottom layer, and there is a spatial heterogeneity in the sensitivity of sediment parameters to different environmental processes. In the shallow (0-5 m) near shore oxic-suboxic environments the lithogenic and terrestrial organic content is high and spatially variable, and the organics show degradation in the oxic part. Due to aerial exposure resulting from lake level changes of at least 3m, the evaporitic carbonates are not completely preserved. In the deep water (>5 m) anoxic environment the lithogenics are uniformly distributed and the delta C-13 is an indicator not only for aquatic vs. terrestrial plants but also of lake pH and salinity. The isotopic composition of the evaporites is dependent not only on the isotopic composition of source water (monsoon rainfall and stream inflow) and evaporation, but is also influenced by proximity to the isotopically depleted stream inflow. We conclude that in the deep water environment lithogenic content, and isotopic composition of organic matter can be used for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction.
New techniques for high pressure falling sphere viscosimetry in DIA-type large volume presses
(2014)
The paper examines the quality of satellite-abased precipitation estimates for the lower Mahanadi River basin (eastern India). The considered data sets known as 3B42 and 3B42-RT (version 7/7A) are routinely produced by the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) from passive microwave and infrared recordings. While the 3B42-RT data are disseminated in real time, the gauge-aadjusted 3B42 data set is published with a delay of some months. The quality of the two products was assessed in a two-astep procedure. First, the correspondence between the remotely sensed precipitation rates and rain gauge data was evaluated at the subbasin scale. Second, the quality of the rainfall estimates was assessed by analysing their performance in the context of rainfall-arunoff simulation.
At sub-abasin level (4000 to 16 000 km(2)) the satellite-abased areal precipitation estimates were found to be moderately correlated with the gauge-abased counterparts (R-2 of 0.64-0.74 for 3B42 and 0.59-0.72 for 3B42-RT). Significant discrepancies between TRMM data and ground observations were identified at high-aintensity levels. The rainfall depth derived from rain gauge data is often not reflected by the TRMM estimates (hit rate < 0.6 for ground-abased intensities > 80 mm day(-1)). At the same time, the remotely sensed rainfall rates frequently exceed the gauge-abased equivalents (false alarm ratios of 0.2-0.6). In addition, the real-atime product 3B42-RT was found to suffer from a spatially consistent negative bias.
Since the regionalisation of rain gauge data is potentially associated with a number of errors, the above results are subject to uncertainty. Hence, a validation against independent information, such as stream flow, was essential. In this case study, the outcome of rainfall-arunoff simulation experiments was consistent with the above-mentioned findings. The best fit between observed and simulated stream flow was obtained if rain gauge data were used as model input (Nash-Sutcliffe index of 0.76-0.88 at gauges not affected by reservoir operation). This compares to the values of 0.71-0.78 for the gauge-djusted TRMM 3B42 data and 0.65-0.77 for the 3B42-RT real-atime data. Whether the 3B42-RT data are useful in the context of operational runoff prediction in spite of the identified problems remains a question for further research.
Effects of climate change are particularly strong in high-mountain regions. Most visibly, glaciers are shrinking at a rapid pace, and as a consequence, glacier lakes are forming or growing. At the same time the stability of mountain slopes is reduced by glacier retreat, permafrost thaw and other factors, resulting in an increasing landslide hazard which can potentially impact lakes and therewith trigger far-reaching and devastating outburst floods. To manage risks from existing or future lakes, strategies need to be developed to plan in time for adequate risk reduction measures at a local level. However, methods to assess risks from future lake outbursts are not available and need to be developed to evaluate both future hazard and future damage potential.
Here a method is presented to estimate future risks related to glacier lake outbursts for a local site in southern Switzerland (Naters, Valais). To generate two hazard scenarios, glacier shrinkage and lake formation modelling was applied, combined with simple flood modelling and field work. Furthermore, a land-use model was developed to quantify and allocate land-use changes based on local-to-regional storylines and three scenarios of land-use driving forces. Results are conceptualized in a matrix of three land-use and two hazard scenarios for the year 2045, and show the distribution of risk in the community of Naters, including high and very high risk areas. The study underlines the importance of combined risk management strategies focusing on land-use planning, on vulnerability reduction, as well as on structural measures (where necessary) to effectively reduce future risks related to lake outburst floods.
Integrated biostratigraphic-chemostratigraphic studies provide evidence that the proto-North Atlantic realm witnessed major changes in carbonate platform production in the run-up of the Early Aptian oceanic anoxic event (OAE) 1a. Whereas pervasive growth of Lithocodium microencrusters represents an early harbinger of OAE1a-related environmental perturbation, the subsequent replacement of oligotrophic rudist-coral-nerineid by mesotrophic orbitolinid-oyster communities was clearly associated with the event itself. In order to test the supra-regional relevance of this major community replacement, two shallow-water sections in the southern Lusitanian Basin (Portugal) are investigated by means of geochemistry (carbon and oxygen isotopes), cement petrography and detailed sedimentological analysis. The focus is on a regional, prominent discontinuity surface (S4) at the transition between oligotrophic and mesotrophic carbonate platform production, which might indicate that the major biotic change could have been associated with a phase of non-sedimentation and possibly erosion. The studied sections (Sao Julia, Crismina) provide evidence that the major Early Aptian biotic turnover was preceded by numerous subordinate but significant changes in platform ecology, which mirrored a series of progressive short-term environmental changes in the course of OAE1. Several transient mass occurrences of orbitolinids indicate repeated phases of ecological stress arguably due to enhanced nutrient input and deepening. Small-scale sea-level changes at parasequence level below the major discontinuity surface are revealed by alternations of rudist assemblages dominated by clinger or recumbent forms as well as intercalated hardground and subaerial exposure stages. Expanded phases of subaerial exposure, however, can be largely ruled out following the geochemical and cement-petrographic data presented here. Enhanced continent-derived siliciclastic input characterising the lower orbitolinid-oyster dominated limestones is in support of a shift to more humid conditions during the middle Early Aptian. This is in line with palaeoclimatic data, which propose a southward movement of the mid-latitude arid climate belt during this time. The documented rapid replacement of oligotrophic assemblages by various environmental-stress adapted carbonate platform communities might be seen as explanation for ongoing Early Aptian proto-North Atlantic carbonate production during a time of widespread platform demise and drowning in the northern Tethyan realm. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The Indian Monsoon Variability during the past Millennium has been simulated with the ECHAM5 model in two different time slices: Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. The simulations are compared with new centennial-resolving paleo-reconstructions inferred from various well-dated multi-proxies from two core regions, the Himalaya and Central India. A qualitative moisture index is derived from the proxies and compared with simulated moisture anomalies.
The reconstructed paleo-hydrological changes between the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Climate Anomaly depict a dipole pattern between Himalaya and Central India, which is also captured by the model.
In the Medieval Climate Anomaly the model exhibits stronger (weaker) dipole signals during summer (winter) compared to Little Ice Age. In summer (winter) months of "Medieval Climate Anomaly minus Little Ice Age" the model simulates wetter conditions over eastern (western and central) Himalaya. Over Central India, a simulated weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon during warmer climate is coincident with reconstructed drying signal in the Lonar Lake record.
Based on the model simulations, we can differentiate three physical mechanisms which can lead to the moisture anomalies: (i) the western and central Himalaya are influenced by extra-tropical Westerlies during winter, (ii) the eastern Himalaya is affected by summer variations of temperature gradient between Bay of Bengal and Indian subcontinent and by a zonal band of intensified Indian-East Asian monsoon link north of 25 degrees N, and (iii) Central India is dominated by summer sea surface temperature anomalies in the northern Arabian Sea which have an effect on the large-scale advection of moist air masses. The temperatures in the Arabian Sea are linked to the Ind Pacific Warm Pool, which modulates the Indian monsoon strength. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
Ostracod shells from the archaeological site Gesher BenotYa'aqov (GBY) in the upper Jordan River Valley (Israel) were investigated to improve the understanding of the environmental conditions of the Acheulian occupation site during the early-mid Pleistocene transition (0.78 Ma). The diverse ostracod assemblage consists of 28 species. The distribution of most of the recorded species in the region today shows that the hydrological conditions at the early-mid Pleistocene transition were not fundamentally different from the modern ones. However, the predominance of Candona neglecta shells in the GBY sequence probably indicates cooler climatic conditions than today. Shells of Candona angulata in the artefact-richer upper half of the sequence suggest a slight salinity increase in the ancient Hula Lake from pure freshwater to slightly oligohaline conditions. This shift probably resulted from wetter conditions and a more stable lake environment with increased residence time of the lake water and stronger influence of evaporation. Shells of the brackish water ostracod Cyprideis torosa and the slightly halophilic Heterocypris sauna and Plesiocypridopsis newtoni were recorded only rarely suggesting that the lake maintained an outlet through the entire period represented by the GBY sequence. Shells of Gomphocythere ortali in GBY cycles 1 and 2 imply that a permanent freshwater stream existed close to the site. Humphcypris subterranea shells in cycles 3-5 provide further evidence that a tributary entered the lake from the south in contrast to the modern setting with the north-south flowing Jordan River at GBY. Statistical analysis of the quantitative ostracod data from GBY identified a group of samples from layers containing more abundant stone artefacts and another group of samples from layers with scarce artefacts. Samples from layers containing more abundant artefacts have relatively high abundances of C. angulata, Darwinula stevensoni and Physocypria kraepelini shells and include rare shells of Ilyocypris hartmanni, Ilyocypris salebrosa, Heterocypris incongniens and Pseudocandona sp. 2 which do not occur in the other samples. The presence of P. kraepelini and H. incongruens shells in artefact-richer sediments possibly indicates poor bottom water oxygenation in the ancient Hula lake sometimes during the periods of Acheulian occupation. However, more detailed studies are required to assess whether lower dissolved oxygen levels in the lake resulted from a slight lake level rise and possibly higher nutrient flux to the lake during wetter conditions or whether hominins already impacted lake's nutrient status by butchering at its shore or by burning of near-shore vegetation. (c) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Quantitative geochemical modeling is today applied in a variety of geological environments from the petrogenesis of igneous rocks to radioactive waste disposal. In addition, the development of thermodynamic databases and computer programs to calculate equilibrium phase diagrams has greatly advanced our ability to model geodynamic processes. Combined with experimental data on elemental partitioning and isotopic fractionation, thermodynamic forward modeling unfolds enormous capacities that are far from exhausted.
In metamorphic petrology the combination of thermodynamic and trace element forward modeling can be used to study and to quantify processes at spatial scales from mu m to km. The thermodynamic forward models utilize Gibbs energy minimization to quantify mineralogical changes along a reaction path of a chemically open fluid/rock system. These results are combined with mass balanced trace element calculations to determine the trace element distribution between rock and melt/fluid during the metamorphic evolution. Thus, effects of mineral reactions, fluid-rock interaction and element transport in metamorphic rocks on the trace element and isotopic composition of minerals, rocks and percolating fluids or melts can be predicted.
Here we illustrate the capacities of combined thermodynamic-geochemical modeling based on two examples relevant to mass transfer during metamorphism. The first example focuses on fluid-rock interaction in and around a blueschist-facies shear zone in felsic gneisses, where fluid-induced mineral reactions and their effects on boron (B) concentrations and isotopic compositions in white mica are modeled. In the second example, fluid release from a subducted slab, the associated transport of B as well as variations in B concentrations and isotopic compositions in liberated fluids and residual rocks are modeled. We compare the modeled results of both examples to geochemical data of natural minerals and rocks and demonstrate that the combination of thermodynamic and geochemical models enables quantification of metamorphic processes and insights into element cycling that would have been unattainable if only one model approach was chosen. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Oxygen isotope compositions are reported for the first time for the Himalayan metabasites of the Kaghan Valley, Pakistan in this study. The highest metamorphic grades are recorded in the north of the valley, near the India-Asia collision boundary, in the form of high-pressure (HP: Group I) and ultrahigh-pressure (UHP: Group II) eclogites. The rocks show a step-wise decrease in grade from the UHP to HP eclogites and amphibolites. The protoliths of these metabasites were the Permian Panjal Trap basalts (ca. 267 +/- 2.4 Ma), which were emplaced along the northern margin of India when it was part of Gondwana. After the break-up of Gondwana, India drifted northward, subducted beneath Asia and underwent UHP metamorphism during the Eocene (ca. 45 +/- 1.2 Ma). At the regional scale, amphibolites, Group I and II eclogites yielded delta O-18 values of +5.84 and +5.91 parts per thousand, +1.66 to +424 parts per thousand, and -2.25 to +0.76 parts per thousand, respectively, relative to VSMOW. On a more local scale, within a single eclogite body, the delta O-18 values were the lowest (-2.25 to-1.44%.) in the central, the best preserved (least retrograded) parts, and show a systematic increase outward into more retrograded rocks, reaching up to +0.12 parts per thousand. These values are significantly lower than the typical mantle values for basalts of + 5.7 +/- 0.3 parts per thousand. The unusually low or negative delta O-18 values in Group II eclogites potentially resulted from hydrothermal alteration of the protoliths by interactions with meteoric water when the Indian plate was at southern high latitudes (similar to 60 degrees S). The stepwise increase in delta O-18 values, among different eclogite bodies in general and at single outcrop-scales in particular, reflects differing degrees of resetting of the oxygen isotope compositions during exhumation-related retrogression. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The real-time recognition and precise correction of baseline shifts in strong-motion records is a critical issue for GPS and accelerometer combined processing. This paper proposes a method to adaptively recognize and correct baseline shifts in strong-motion records by utilizing GPS measurements using two phases Kalman filter. By defining four kinds of learning statistics and criteria, the time series of estimated baseline shifts can be divided into four time intervals: initialization, static, transient and permanent. During the time interval in which the transient baseline shift is recognized, the dynamic noise of the Kalman filter system and the length of the baseline shifts estimation window are adaptively adjusted to yield a robust integration solution. The validations from an experimental and real datasets show that acceleration baseline shifts can be precisely recognized and corrected, thus, the combined system adaptively adjusted the estimation strategy to get a more robust solution. (C) 2014 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The hydrology of western Central Asia is highly sensitive to climatic perturbations. In order to understand its long-term variability and to infer linkages between precipitation and atmospheric and oceanic systems, we conducted a thorough sedimentary and geochemical study on a composite core retrieved in lake Son Kul (central Kyrgyzstan). A multi-proxy approach was conducted on lake sediments based on grain size analyses, magnetic susceptibility, total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN) and carbon and oxygen isotope analyses on bulk and biogenic materials (ostracoda and molluscs shells) at a resolution equivalent to ca 40 years, aiming to characterise the sequence of palaeolimnological changes in Son Kul.
As indicated by delta O-18 record of bulk carbonates, mainly consisting of aragonite, the Holocene hydrological balance was negative during most of time, suggesting an excess of evaporation (E) over precipitation (P). Limnological conditions fluctuated rapidly before 5000 cal yr BP indicating significant changes in regional hydrology and climate. In particular, the long-term negative hydrological balance was impeded by several short stages with marked increase of precipitation, lasting several decades to a few centuries (e.g., 8300-8200, 6900-6700, 6300-6100, 5500-5400, 5300-5200 and 3100 -3000 cal yr BP). Precipitation changes as inferred from 8180 data are also documented by increased minerogenic detritus and higher TOC. We propose that the seasonal pattern of precipitation varied transiently in western Central Asia during the Holocene, although evaporation changes may also account for the rapid changes observed in delta O-18 data. When the annual water balance was less critical (P <= E), the excess of water might be ascribed to increased precipitation during cold seasons mainly because winter precipitation has more negative delta O-18 than its summer equivalent. Conversely, when the annual water balance is negative (P E), the moisture was mainly delivered during the warm season, as between 5000 and 2000 cal yr BP. Our results thus imply that moisture sources could have changed as well during the Holocene. Moisture was delivered as today mainly during summer from the extended Caspian-Aral Basin and eastern Mediterranean, although Arctic and even North Atlantic seas might be important moisture sources when seasonal precipitation was dominated by winter precipitation. We hypothesise that warming Arctic and North Atlantic seas were important for the North Hemisphere circulation during the cold season. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Submerged macrophytes can stabilise clear water conditions in shallow lakes. However, many existing models for deep lakes neglect their impact. Here, we tested the hypothesis that submerged macrophytes can affect the water clarity in deep lakes. A one-dimensional, vertically resolved macrophyte model was developed based on PCLake and coupled to SALMO-1D and GOTM hydrophysics and validated against field data. Validation showed good coherence in dynamic growth patterns and colonisation depths. In our simulations the presence of submerged macrophytes resulted in up to 50% less phytoplankton biomass in the shallowest simulated lake (11 m) and still 15% less phytoplankton was predicted in 100 m deep oligotrophic lakes. Nutrient loading, lake depth, and lake shape had a strong influence on macrophyte effects. Nutrient competition was found to be the strongest biological interaction. Despite a number of limitations, the derived dynamic lake model suggests significant effects of submerged macrophytes on deep lake water quality. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Military areas are valuable habitats and refuges for rare and endangered plants and animals. We developed a new approach applying innovative methods of hyperspectral remote sensing to bridge the existing gap between remote sensing technology and the demands of the nature conservation community. Remote sensing has already proven to be a valuable monitoring instrument. However, the approaches lack the consideration of the demands of applied nature conservation which includes the legal demands of the EU Habitat Directive. Following the idea of the Vital Signs Monitoring in the USA, we identified a subset of the highest priority monitoring indicators for our study area. We analyzed continuous spectral response curves and tested the measurability of N=19 indicators on the basis of complexity levels aggregated from extensive vegetation assemblages. The spectral differentiability for the floristic as well as faunistic indicators revealed values up to 100% accuracy. We point out difficulties when it comes to distinguishing faunistic habitat requirements of several species adapted to dry open landscapes, which in this case results in OVERALL ACCURACY of 67, 87-95, and 35% in the error matrix. In summary, we provide an applicable and feasible method to facilitating monitoring military areas by hyperspectral remote sensing in the following. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Sediment-discharge hysteresis loops are frequently analyzed to facilitate the understanding of sediment transport processes. Hysteresis patterns, however, are often complex and their interpretation can be complicated. Particularly, quantifying hysteresis patterns remains a problematic issue. Moreover, it is currently unknown how much data is required for analyzing sediment-discharge hysteresis loops in a given area. These open questions and challenges motivated us to develop a new method for quantifying suspended-sediment hysteresis. Subsequently, we applied the new hysteresis index to three suspended-sediment and discharge datasets from a small tropical rainforest catchment. The datasets comprised a different number of events and sampling sites. Our analyses show three main findings: (1) datasets restricted to only few events, which is typical for rapid assessment surveys, were always sufficient to identify the dominating hysteresis pattern in our research area. Furthermore, some of these small datasets contained multiple-peak events that allowed identifying intra-event exhaustion effects and hence, limitations in sediment supply. (2) Datasets comprising complete hydrological years were particularly useful for analyzing seasonal dynamics of hysteresis. These analyses revealed an exhaustion of hysteresis on the inter-event scale which also points to a limited sediment supply. (3) Datasets comprising measurements from two consecutive gauges installed at the catchment outlet and on a slope within that catchment allowed analyzing the change of hysteresis patterns along the flowpath. On the slope, multiple-peak events showed a stronger intra-event exhaustion of hysteresis than at the catchment outlet. Furthermore, exhaustion of hysteresis on the inter-event scale was not evident on the slope but occurred at the catchment outlet. Our results indicate that even small sediment datasets can provide valuable insights into sediment transport processes of small catchments. Furthermore, our results may serve as a first guideline on what to expect from an analysis of hysteresis patterns for datasets of varying quality and quantity. (c) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Shallow inland water bodies in Malawi continue to be threatened by various environmental challenges despite their importance to the fisheries industry. Due to the complex interaction between natural and anthropogenic disturbances, disentangling the effect of the two may be a complicated process. The littoral zone of most water bodies is important in environmental reconstructions including pollution and lake level monitoring. This study used a littoral zone, transect-based approach employing multi-proxy palaeolimnological techniques to reconstruct recent environmental change (ca. 100 yrs.) in Lake Malombe in the Malawi Rift, East Africa. The results of the study could inform fisheries management in Lake Malombe, which experienced a catastrophic decline in fish stocks. Results support documentary evidence for the complete desiccation of the lake less than 100 years ago. Subsequently, there is evidence for accelerated eutrophication in the recent past. In light of these results, it is concluded that transect sampling approaches rather than relying on single core measurements, and the need for careful consideration of the types of proxy, are significant considerations in palaeoenvironmental reconstructions.
We assessed tropical montane cloud forest (TMCF) sensitivity to natural disturbance by drought, fire, and dieback with a 7300-year-long paleorecord. We analyzed pollen assemblages, charcoal accumulation rates, and higher plant biomarker compounds (average chain length [ACL] of n-alkanes) in sediments from Wai 'anapanapa, a small lake near the upper forest limit and the mean trade wind inversion ('IWI) in Hawai`i. The paleorecord of ACL suggests increased drought frequency and a lower awl elevation from 2555-1323 cal yr B.P. and 606-334 cal yr B.P. Charcoal began to accumulate and a novel fire regime was initiated ca. 880 cal yr B.P., followed by a decreased fire return interval at ca. 550 cal yr B.P. Diebacks occurred at 2931, 2161, 1162, and 306 cal yr B.P., and two of these were independent of drought or fire. Pollen assemblages indicate that on average species composition changed only 2.8% per decade. These dynamics, though slight, were significantly associated with disturbance. The direction of species composition change varied with disturbance type. Drought was associated with significantly more vines and lianas; fire was associated with an increase in the tree fern Sadleria and indicators of open, disturbed landscapes at the expense of epiphytic ferns; whereas stand-scale dieback was associated with an increase in the tree fern Cibotium. Though this cloud forest was dynamic in response to past disturbance, it has recovered, suggesting a resilient TMCF with no evidence of state change in vegetation type (e.g., grassland or shrubland).
Soil in a changing world is subject to both anthropogenic and environmental stresses. Soil monitoring is essential to assess the magnitude of changes in soil variables and how they affect ecosystem processes and human livelihoods. However, we cannot always be sure which sampling design is best for a given monitoring task. We employed a rotational stratified simple random sampling (rotStRS) for the estimation of temporal changes in the spatial mean of saturated hydraulic conductivity (K-s) at three sites in central Panama in 2009, 2010 and 2011. To assess this design's efficiency we compared the resulting estimates of the spatial mean and variance for 2009 with those gained from stratified simple random sampling (StRS), which was effectively the data obtained on the first sampling time, and with an equivalent unexecuted simple random sampling (SRS). The poor performance of geometrical stratification and the weak predictive relationship between measurements of successive years yielded no advantage of sampling designs more complex than SRS. The failure of stratification may be attributed to the small large-scale variability of K-s. Revisiting previously sampled locations was not beneficial because of the large small-scale variability in combination with destructive sampling, resulting in poor consistency between revisited samples. We conclude that for our K-s monitoring scheme, repeated SRS is equally effective as rotStRS. Some problems of small-scale variability might be overcome by collecting several samples at close range to reduce the effect of small-scale variation. Finally, we give recommendations on the key factors to consider when deciding whether to use stratification and rotation in a soil monitoring scheme.
Biomass allometries and coarse root biomass distribution of mountain birch in southern Iceland
(2014)
Root systems are an important pool of biomass and carbon in forest ecosystems. However, most allometric studies on forest trees focus only on the aboveground components. When estimated, root biomass has most often been calculated by using a fixed conversion factor from aboveground biomass. In order to study the size-related development of the root system of native mountain birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh. ssp. czerepanovii), we collected the coarse root system of 25 different aged birch trees (stem diameter at 50 cm length between 0.2 and 14.1 cm) and characterized them by penetration depth (< 1 m) and root thickness. Based on this dataset, allometric functions for coarse roots (> 5 mm and > 2 mm), root stock, total belowground biomass and aboveground biomass components were calculated by a nonlinear and a linear fitting approach. The study showed that coarse root biomass of mountain birch was almost exclusively (> 95 weight-%) located in the top 30 cm, even in a natural old-growth woodland. By using a cross-validation approach, we found that the nonlinear fitting procedure performed better than the linear approach with respect to predictive power. In addition, our results underscore that general assumptions of fixed conversion factors lead to an underestimation of the belowground biomass. Thus, our results provide allometric functions for a more accurate root biomass estimation to be utilized in inventory reports and ecological studies.
We have investigated the influence that megathrust earthquake slip has on the activation of splay faults using a 2-D finite element method (FEM), taking into account the effects of gravity and variations in the frictional strength properties of splay faults. We simulated both landward-dipping and seaward-dipping splay fault geometries, and imposed depth-variable slip distributions of subduction events. Our results indicate that the two types of splay fault exhibit a similar behavior, with variations in frictional properties along the faults affecting only the seismic magnitude. The triggering process is controlled by a critical depth. Megathrust slip concentrated at depths shallower than the critical depth will favor normal displacement, while megathrust slip concentrated at depths deeper than the critical depth is likely to result in reverse motion. Our results thus provide a useful tool for predicting the activation of secondary faults and may have direct implications for tsunami hazard research.
TopoToolbox is a MATLAB program for the analysis of digital elevation models (DEMs). With the release of version 2, the software adopts an object-oriented programming (OOP) approach to work with gridded DEMs and derived data such as flow directions and stream networks. The introduction of a novel technique to store flow directions as topologically ordered vectors of indices enables calculation of flow-related attributes such as flow accumulation similar to 20 times faster than conventional algorithms while at the same time reducing memory overhead to 33% of that required by the previous version. Graphical user interfaces (GUIs) enable visual exploration and interaction with DEMs and derivatives and provide access to tools targeted at fluvial and tectonic geomorphologists. With its new release, TopoToolbox has become a more memory-efficient and faster tool for basic and advanced digital terrain analysis that can be used as a framework for building hydrological and geomorphological models in MATLAB.
In the context of examining the potential usage of safe and sustainable geothermal energy in the Alberta Basin, whether in deep sediments or crystalline rock, the understanding of the in situ stress state is crucial. It is a key challenge to estimate the 3-D stress state at an arbitrarily chosen point in the crust, based on sparsely distributed in situ stress data.
To address this challenge, we present a large-scale 3-D geomechanical-numerical model (700 km x 1200 km x 80 km) from a large portion of the Alberta Basin, to provide a 3-D continuous quantification of the contemporary stress orientations and stress magnitudes. To calibrate the model, we use a large database of in situ stress orientation (321 S-Hmax) as well as stress magnitude data (981 S-V, 1720 S-hmin and 2 (+11) S-Hmax) from the Alberta Basin. To find the best-fit model, we vary the material properties and primarily the displacement boundary conditions of the model. This study focusses in detail on the statistical calibration procedure, because of the large amount of available data, the diversity of data types, and the importance of the order of data tests.
The best-fit model provides the total 3-D stress tensor for nearly the whole Alberta Basin, and allows estimation of stress orientation and stress magnitudes in advance of any well. First-order implications for the well design and configuration of enhanced geothermal systems are revealed. Systematic deviations of the modelled stress from the in situ data are found for stress orientations in the Peace River and the Bow Island Arch as well as for leak-off test magnitudes.
The Canadian database on contemporary crustal stress has not been revised systematically in the past two decades. Here we present the results of our new compilation that contains 514 new data records for the orientation data of maximum compressive horizontal stress and 188 data records that were re-assessed. In total the Canadian stress database has now 1667 data records, which is an increase of about 45%. From these data, a new Canadian Stress map as well as one for the Province of Alberta is presented.
To analyse the stress pattern, we use the quasi median on the circle as a smoothing algorithm that generates a smoothed stress map of the maximum compressive horizontal stress orientation on a regular grid. The newly introduced quasi interquartile range on the circle estimates the spreading of the data and is used as a measure for the wave-length of the stress pattern. The result of the hybrid wavelength analysis confirms that long spatial wavelength stress patterns (>= 1000 km) exist in large areas in Canada. The observed stress pattern is transmitted through the intra-plate regions.
The results reveal that shorter spatial wave length variation of the maximum compressive horizontal stress orientation of less than 200 km, prevails particularly in south-eastern and western Canada. Regional stress sources such as density contrasts, active fault systems, crustal structures, etc. might have a significant impact in these regions. In contrast to these variations, the observed stress pattern in the Alberta Basin is very homogeneous and mainly controlled by plate boundary forces and body forces. The influence of curvature of the Rocky Mountains salient in southern Alberta is minimal. The present-day horizontal stress orientations determined herein have important implications for the production of hydrocarbons and geothermal energy in the Alberta Basin. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Intraplate seismicity across the Cape Verde swell: A contribution from a temporary seismic network
(2014)
We present an analysis and characterization of the regional seismicity recorded by a temporary broadband seismic network deployed in the Cape Verde archipelago between November 2007 and September 2008.
The detection of earthquakes was based on spectrograms, allowing the discrimination from low-frequency volcanic signals, resulting in 358 events of which 265 were located, the magnitudes usually being smaller than 3. For the location, a new 1-D P-velocity model was derived for the region showing a crust consistent with an oceanic crustal structure. The seismicity is located mostly offshore the westernmost and geologically youngest areas of the archipelago, near the islands of Santo Antao and Sao Vicente in the NW and Brava and Fogo in the SW. The SW cluster has a lower occurrence rate and corresponds to seismicity concentrated mainly along an alignment between Brava and the Cadamosto seamount presenting normal faulting mechanisms. The existence of the NW cluster, located offshore SW of Santo Antao, was so far unknown and concentrates around a recently recognized submarine cone field; this cluster presents focal depths extending from the crust to the upper mantle and suggests volcanic unrest No evident temporal behaviour could be perceived, although the events tend to occur in bursts of activity lasting a few days. In this recording period, no significant activity was detected at Fogo volcano, the most active volcanic edifice in Cape Verde.
The seismicity characteristics point mainly to a volcanic origin. The correlation of the recorded seismicity with active volcanic structures agrees with the tendency for a westward migration of volcanic activity in the archipelago as indicated by the geologic record. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
We provide new insights into the prograde evolution of HP/LT metasedimentary rocks on the basis of detailed petrologic examination, element-partitioning analysis, and thermodynamic modelling of well-preserved Fe-Mg-carpholite- and Fe-Mg-chloritoid-bearing rocks from the Afyon Zone (Anatolia). We document continuous and discontinuous compositional (ferromagnesian substitution) zoning of carpholite (overall X-Mg = 0.27-0.73) and chloritoid (overall X-Mg = 0.07-0.30), as well as clear equilibrium and disequilibrium (i.e., reaction-related) textures involving carpholite and chloritoid, which consistently account for the consistent enrichment in Mg of both minerals through time, and the progressive replacement of carpholite by chloritoid. Mg/Fe distribution coefficients calculated between carpholite and chloritoid vary widely within samples (2.2-20.0). Among this range, only values of 7-11 correlate with equilibrium textures, in agreement with data from the literature. Equilibrium phase diagrams for metapelitic compositions are calculated using a newly modified thermodynamic dataset, including most recent data for carpholite, chloritoid, chlorite, and white mica, as well as further refinements for Fe-carpholite, and both chloritoid end-members, as required to reproduce accurately petrologic observations (phase relations, experimental constraints, Mg/Fe partitioning). Modelling reveals that Mg/Fe partitioning between carpholite and chloritoid is greatly sensitive to temperature and calls for a future evaluation of possible use as a thermometer. In addition, calculations show significant effective bulk composition changes during prograde metamorphism due to the fractionation of chloritoid formed at the expense of carpholite. We retrieve P-T conditions for several carpholite and chloritoid growth stages (1) during prograde stages using unfractionated, bulk-rock XRF analyses, and (2) at peak conditions using compositions fractionated for chloritoid. The P-T paths reconstructed for the Kutahya and Afyon areas shed light on contrasting temperature conditions for these areas during prograde and peak stages.
Hydrosedimentological studies conducted in the semiarid Upper Jaguaribe Basin, Brazil, enabled the identification of the key processes controlling sediment connectivity at different spatial scales (10(0)-10(4) km(2)).
Water and sediment fluxes were assessed from discharge, sediment concentrations and reservoir siltation measurements. Additionally, mathematical modelling (WASA-SED model) was used to quantify water and sediment transfer within the watershed.
Rainfall erosivity in the study area was moderate (4600 MJ mm ha(-1) h(-1) year(-1)), whereas runoff depths (16-60 mm year(-1)), and therefore the sediment transport capacity, were low. Consequently, similar to 60 % of the eroded sediment was deposited along the landscape, regardless of the spatial scale. The existing high-density reservoir network (contributing area of 6 km(2) per reservoir) also limits sediment propagation, retaining up to 47 % of the sediment at the large basin scale. The sediment delivery ratio (SDR) decreased with the spatial scale; on average, 41 % of the eroded sediment was yielded from the hillslopes, while for the whole 24,600-km(2) basin, the SDR was reduced to 1 % downstream of a large reservoir (1940-hm(3) capacity).
Hydrological behaviour in the Upper Jaguaribe Basin represents a constraint on sediment propagation; low runoff depth is the main feature breaking sediment connectivity, which limits sediment transference from the hillslopes to the drainage system. Surface reservoirs are also important barriers, but their relative importance to sediment retention increases with scale, since larger contributing areas are more suitable for the construction of dams due to higher hydrological potential.
The Himalayan mountains are dissected by some of the deepest and most impressive gorges on Earth. Constraining the interplay between river incision and rock uplift is important for understanding tectonic deformation in this region. We report here the discovery of a deeply incised canyon of the Yarlung Tsangpo River, at the eastern end of the Himalaya, which is now buried under more than 500 meters of sediments. By reconstructing the former valley bottom and dating sediments at the base of the valley fill, we show that steepening of the Tsangpo Gorge started at about 2 million to 2.5 million years ago as a consequence of an increase in rock uplift rates. The high erosion rates within the gorge are therefore a direct consequence of rapid rock uplift.
Recultivation of disturbed oil sand mining areas is an issue of increasing importance. Nevertheless only little is known about the fate of organic matter, cell abundances and microbial community structures during oil sand processing, tailings management and initial soil development on reclamation sites. Thus the focus of this work is on biogeochemical changes of mined oil sands through the entire process chain until its use as substratum for newly developing soils on reclamation sites. Therefore, oil sand, mature fine tailings (MFTs) from tailings ponds and drying cells and tailings sand covered with peat-mineral mix (PMM) as part of land reclamation were analyzed. The sample set was selected to address the question whether changes in the above-mentioned biogeochemical parameters can be related to oil sand processing or biological processes and how these changes influence microbial activities and soil development.
GC-MS analyses of oil-derived biomarkers reveal that these compounds remain unaffected by oil sand processing and biological activity. In contrast, changes in polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) abundance and pattern can be observed along the process chain. Especially naphthalenes, phenanthrenes and chrysenes are altered or absent on reclamation sites, Furthermore, root-bearing horizons on reclamation sites exhibit cell abundances at least ten times higher (10(8) to 10(9) cells g(-1)) than in oil sand and MFF samples (10(7) cells g(-1)) and show a higher diversity in their microbial community structure. Nitrate in the pore water and roots derived from the PMM seem to be the most important stimulants for microbial growth. The combined data show that the observed compositional changes are mostly related to biological activity and the addition of exogenous organic components (PMM), whereas oil extraction, tailings dewatering and compaction do not have significant influences on the evaluated compounds. Microbial community composition remains relatively stable through the entire process chain. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
We report the results of our investigations on the catchment area, lake surface sediments, and hydrology of the high altitude alpine Tso Moriri Lake, NW Himalayas (India). Our results indicate that the lake is currently alkaline, and thermally stratified with an oxic bottom layer. Results from hydrochemistry and isotopic composition (delta O-18 and delta D) of inflowing streams and lake waters show that Tso Moriri Lake is an evaporative lake with contributions from both westerly source (snow melt) and Indian summer monsoon precipitation. Geochemical and mineralogical investigations on the catchment and lake surface sediments reveal the presence of authigenic aragonite in modern lake sediment. The lithogenic components reflect the inflow and sorting processes during transport into the lake, whereas the authigenic carbonate fraction can be linked to the changes in ([precipitation+meltwater]/evaporation) (I/E) balance within the lake. The spatial variability in grain size distribution within the lake surface sediments shows that the grain size data can be utilised as a proxy for transport energy and shoreline proximity in the lake basin. We have evaluated the applicability of commonly applied environmentally sensitive proxies (isotopes, mineralogy, weathering indices) for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction in the Tso Moriri Lake. Our results show that the commonly used weathering index (Rb/Sr) is not applicable due to Sr contribution from authigenic carbonates. The useful weathering indices in Tso Moriri Lake are the Si/Al and the Chemical Proxy of Alteration (CPA). Since the carbonates are formed by evaporative processes, their presence and isotopic values can be used as indicators of I/E changes in the lake.
A modern pollen dataset from China and Mongolia (18-52 degrees N, 74-132 degrees E) is investigated for its potential use in climate reconstructions. The dataset includes 2559 samples, 229 terrestrial pollen taxa and four climatic variables - mean annual precipitation (P-ann): 35-2091 mm, mean annual temperature (T-ann): -12.1-25.8 degrees C, mean temperature in the coldest month (Mt(co).): -33.8-21.7 degrees C, and mean temperature in the warmest month (Mt(wa)): 03-29.8 degrees C. Modern pollen-climate relationships are assessed using canonical correspondence analysis (CCA), Huisman-Olff-Fresco (HOF) models, the modern analogue technique (MAT), and weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS). Results indicate that P-ann is the most important climatic determinant of pollen distribution and the most promising climate variable for reconstructions, as assessed by the coefficient of determination between observed and predicted environmental values (r(2)) and root mean square error of prediction (RMSEP). Mt(co) and Mt(wa) may be reconstructed too, but with caution. Samples from different depositional environments influence the performance of cross-validation differently, with samples from lake sediment-surfaces and moss polsters having the best fit with the lowest RMSEP. The better model performances of MAT are most probably caused by spatial autocorrelation. Accordingly, the WA-PLS models of this dataset are deemed most suitable for reconstructing past climate quantitatively because of their more reliable predictive power. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Rates and style of Cenozoic deformation around the Gonghe Basin, northeastern Tibetan Plateau
(2014)
The northeastern Tibetan Plateau constitutes a transitional region between the low-relief physiographic plateau to the south and the high-relief ranges of the Qilian Shan to the north. Cenozoic deformation across this margin of the plateau is associated with localized growth of fault-cored mountain ranges and associated basins. Herein, we combine detailed structural analysis of the geometry of range-bounding faults and deformation of foreland basin strata with geomorphic and exhumational records of erosion in hangingwall ranges in order to investigate the magnitude, timing, and style of deformation along the two primary fault systems, the Qinghai Nan Shan and the Gonghe Nan Shan. Structural mapping shows that both ranges have developed above imbricate fans of listric thrust faults, which sole into decollements in the middle crust. Restoration of shortening along balanced cross sections suggests a minimum of 0.8-2.2 km and 5.1-6.9 km of shortening, respectively. Growth strata in the associated foreland basin record the onset of deformation on the two fault systems at ca. 6-10 Ma and ca. 7-10 Ma, respectively, and thus our analysis suggests late Cenozoic shortening rates of 0.2 +0.2/-0.1 km/m.y. and 0.7 +0.3/-0.2 km/m.y. along the north and south sides of Gonghe Basin. Along the Qinghai Nan Shan, these rates are similar to late Pleistocene slip rates of similar to 0.10 +/- 0.04 mm/yr, derived from restoration and dating of a deformed alluvial-fan surface. Collectively, our results imply that deformation along both flanks of the doubly vergent Qilian Shan-Nan Shan initiated by ca. 10 Ma and that subsequent shortening has been relatively steady since that time.
Subsurface stormflow is thought to occur mainly in humid environments with steep terrains. However, in semi-arid areas, preferential flow through macropores can also result in a significant contribution of subsurface stormflow to catchment runoff for varying catchment conditions. Most hydrological models neglect this important subsurface preferential flow. Here, we use the process-oriented hydrological model Hillflow-3D, which includes a macropore flow approach, to simulate rainfall-runoff in the semi-arid Parapunos catchment in Spain, where macropore flow was observed in previous research. The model was extended for this study to account for sorptivity under very dry soil conditions. The results of the model simulations with and without macropore flow are compared. Both model versions give reasonable results for average rainfall situations, although the approach with the macropore concept provides slightly better results. The model results for scenarios of extreme rainfall events (>13.3mm30min(-1)) however show large differences between the versions with and without macropores. These model results compared with measured rainfall-runoff data show that the model with the macropore concept is better. Our conclusion is that preferential flow is important in controlling surface runoff in case of specific, high intensity rainfall events. Therefore, preferential flow processes must be included in hydrological models where we know that preferential flow occurs. Hydrological process models with a less detailed process description may fit observed average events reasonably well but can result in erroneous predictions for more extreme events. Copyright (c) 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Due to increasing demands and competition for high quality groundwater resources in many parts of the world, there is an urgent need for efficient methods that shed light on the interplay between complex natural settings and anthropogenic impacts. Thus a new approach is introduced, that aims to identify and quantify the predominant processes or factors of influence that drive groundwater and lake water dynamics on a catchment scale. The approach involves a non-linear dimension reduction method called Isometric feature mapping (Isomap). This method is applied to time series of groundwater head and lake water level data from a complex geological setting in Northeastern Germany. Two factors explaining more than 95% of the observed spatial variations are identified: (1) the anthropogenic impact of a waterworks in the study area and (2) natural groundwater recharge with different degrees of dampening at the respective sites of observation. The approach enables a presumption-free assessment to be made of the existing geological conception in the catchment, leading to an extension of the conception. Previously unknown hydraulic connections between two aquifers are identified, and connections revealed between surface water bodies and groundwater. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Garnet brought to the surface by late Miocene granitoids at La Galite Archipelago (Central Mediterranean, Tunisia) contains abundant primary melt and fluid inclusions. Microstructural observations and mineral chemistry define the host garnet as a peritectic phase produced by biotite incongruent melting at ~800 degrees C and 0.5GPa, under fluid-present conditions. The trapped melt is leucogranitic with an unexpected metaluminous and almost peralkaline character. Fluid inclusions are one phase at room temperature, and contain a CO2-dominated fluid, with minor H2O, N-2 and CH4. Siderite and an OH-bearing phase were identified by Raman and IR spectroscopy within every analysed inclusion, and are interpreted as products of a post-entrapment carbonation/hydration reaction between the fluid and the host during cooling. The fluid present during anatexis is therefore inferred to have been originally richer in both H2O and CO2. The production of anatectic melt with a metaluminous signature can be explained as the result of partial melting of relatively Al-poor protoliths assisted by CO2-rich fluids.
The Dansgaard-Oeschger oscillations and Heinrich events described in North Atlantic sediments and Greenland ice are expressed in the climate of the tropics, for example, as documented in Arabian Sea sediments. Given the strength of this teleconnection, we seek to reconstruct its range of environmental impacts. We present geochemical and sedimentological data from core SO130-289KL from the Indus submarine slope spanning the last similar to 80 kyr. Elemental and grain size analyses consistently indicate that interstadials are characterized by an increased contribution of fluvial suspension from the Indus River. In contrast, stadials are characterized by an increased contribution of aeolian dust from the Arabian Peninsula. Decadal-scale shifts at climate transitions, such as onsets of interstadials, were coeval with changes in productivity-related proxies. Heinrich events stand out as especially dry and dusty events, indicating a dramatically weakened Indian summer monsoon, potentially increased winter monsoon circulation, and increased aridity on the Arabian Peninsula. This finding is consistent with other paleoclimate evidence for continental aridity in the northern tropics during these events. Our results strengthen the evidence that circum-North Atlantic temperature variations translate to hydrological shifts in the tropics, with major impacts on regional environmental conditions such as rainfall, river discharge, aeolian dust transport, and ocean margin anoxia.
This article presents comparisons among the five ground-motion models described in other articles within this special issue, in terms of data selection criteria, characteristics of the models and predicted peak ground and response spectral accelerations. Comparisons are also made with predictions from the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) models to which the models presented here have similarities (e.g. a common master database has been used) but also differences (e.g. some models in this issue are nonparametric). As a result of the differing data selection criteria and derivation techniques the predicted median ground motions show considerable differences (up to a factor of two for certain scenarios), particularly for magnitudes and distances close to or beyond the range of the available observations. The predicted influence of style-of-faulting shows much variation among models whereas site amplification factors are more similar, with peak amplification at around 1s. These differences are greater than those among predictions from the NGA models. The models for aleatory variability (sigma), however, are similar and suggest that ground-motion variability from this region is slightly higher than that predicted by the NGA models, based primarily on data from California and Taiwan.
This paper presents a Bayesian non-parametric method based on Gaussian Process (GP) regression to derive ground-motion models for peak-ground parameters and response spectral ordinates. Due to its non-parametric nature there is no need to specify any fixed functional form as in parametric regression models. A GP defines a distribution over functions, which implicitly expresses the uncertainty over the underlying data generating process. An advantage of GP regression is that it is possible to capture the whole uncertainty involved in ground-motion modeling, both in terms of aleatory variability as well as epistemic uncertainty associated with the underlying functional form and data coverage. The distribution over functions is updated in a Bayesian way by computing the posterior distribution of the GP after observing ground-motion data, which in turn can be used to make predictions. The proposed GP regression models is evaluated on a subset of the RESORCE data base for the SIGMA project. The experiments show that GP models have a better generalization error than a simple parametric regression model. A visual assessment of different scenarios demonstrates that the inferred GP models are physically plausible.
Eolian dust is a significant source of iron and other nutrients that are essential for the health of marine ecosystems and potentially a controlling factor of the high nutrient-low chlorophyll status of the Subarctic North Pacific. We map the spatial distribution of dust input using three different geochemical tracers of eolian dust, He-4, Th-232 and rare earth elements, in combination with grain size distribution data, from a set of core-top sediments covering the entire Subarctic North Pacific. Using the suite of geochemical proxies to fingerprint different lithogenic components, we deconvolve eolian dust input from other lithogenic inputs such as volcanic ash, ice-rafted debris, riverine and hemipelagic input. While the open ocean sites far away from the volcanic arcs are dominantly composed of pure eolian dust, lithogenic components other than eolian dust play a more crucial role along the arcs. In sites dominated by dust, eolian dust input appears to be characterized by a nearly uniform grain size mode at similar to 4 mu m.
Applying the Th-230-normalization technique, our proxies yield a consistent pattern of uniform dust fluxes of 1-2 g/m(2)/yr across the Subarctic North Pacific. Elevated eolian dust fluxes of 2-4 g/m(2)/yr characterize the westernmost region off Japan and the southern Kurile Islands south of 45 degrees N and west of 165 degrees E along the main pathway of the westerly winds. The core-top based dust flux reconstruction is consistent with recent estimates based on dissolved thorium isotope concentrations in seawater from the Subarctic North Pacific. The dust flux pattern compares well with state-of-the-art dust model predictions in the western and central Subarctic North Pacific, but we find that dust fluxes are higher than modeled fluxes by 0.5-1 g/m(2)/yr in the northwest, northeast and eastern Subarctic North Pacific. Our results provide an important benchmark for biogeochemical models and a robust approach for downcore studies testing dust-induced iron fertilization of past changes in biological productivity in the Subarctic North Pacific.
The general warming trend of the last deglaciation was interrupted by the Younger Dryas, a period of abrupt cooling and widespread environmental change(1-10). Ice core records suggest the abrupt cooling began 12,846 years ago in Greenland(10), about 170 years before the significant environmental and vegetation change in western Europe(7) classically defined as the Younger Dryas. However, this difference in timing falls within age model uncertainties. Here we use the hydrogen isotope composition of lipid biomarkers from precisely dated varved sediments from Lake Meerfelder Maar to reconstruct hydroclimate over western Europe. We observe a decrease in the hydrogen isotope values of both aquatic and terrestrial lipids 12,850 years ago, indicating cooling climate in this region synchronous with the abrupt cooling in Greenland. A second drop occurs 170 years later, mainly in the hydrogen isotope record of aquatic lipids but to a lesser extent in the terrestrial lipids, which we attribute to aridification, as well as a change in moisture source and pathway. We thus confirm that there was indeed a lag between cooling and substantial hydrologic and environmental change in western Europe. We suggest the delay is related to the expansion of sea ice in the North Atlantic Ocean and the subsequent southward migration of the westerly wind system(9). We further suggest that these hydrological changes amplified environmental change in western Europe at the onset of the Younger Dryas.
The Shell Bar in the Qaidam Basin, China, is a prominent geological feature composed of millions of densely packed Corbicula shells. Since the mid 1980s, it has been regarded as evidence for existence of a large lake during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 in the presently hyper-arid Qaidam Basin. Early studies suggested the bivalve shells accumulated at the shore of a large lake, whereas more recent work led to the conclusion that the Shell Bar was formed within a deeper water body. Based on our re-assessment of sediments and fossils from the Shell Bar, investigation of exposed fluvio-lacustrine sections upstream of the Shell Bar and study of nearby modern streams, we infer that the Shell Bar represents a stream deposit. Corbicula is a typical stream-dweller around the world. Preservation of Corbicula shells of different sizes, as well as occurrence of many articulated shells, provide evidence against post-mortem transport and accumulation along a lake shore. Additionally, the SE-NW alignment of the Shell Bar is similar to modern intermittent stream beds in its vicinity and corresponds to the present-day slope towards the basin centre further NW, and furthermore, the predominantly sandy sediments also indicate that the Shell Bar was formed in a stream. Abundant ostracod shells in the Shell Bar sediments originated from stream-dwelling species that are abundant in modern streams in the vicinity of the Shell Bar, or in part from fluvio-lacustrine sediments exposed upstream of the Shell Bar, as a result of erosion and re-deposition. Deflation of alluvial fine-grained sediments in the Shell Bar region and protection of the stream deposits by the large and thick-walled Corbicula shells reversed the former channel relief and yielded the modern exposure, which is a prominent morphological feature. Occurrence of Corbicula shells in the Qaidam Basin indicates climate was apparently warmer than present during the formation of the Shell Bar because Corbicula does not live at similar or higher altitudes in the region today. Because the Shell Bar is no longer considered a deposit formed within a lake, its presence does not indicate paleoclimate conditions wetter than today.
A geological feature in the Qaidam Basin known as the "Shell Bar" contains millions of freshwater clam shells buried in situ. Since the 1980s, this feature in the now hyper-arid basin has been interpreted to be lake deposits that provide evidence for a warmer and more humid climate than present during late marine isotope stage 3 (MIS 3). Global climate during late MIS 3 and the last glacial maximum, however, was cold and dry, with much lower sea levels. We re-investigated the feature geomorphologically and sedimentologically, and employed optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating to verify the chronology of the sediments. We interpret the Shell Bar to be a remnant of a river channel formed by a stream that ran across an exposed lake bed during a regressive lake phase. Deflation of the surrounding older, fine-grained lacustrine deposits has left the fluvial channel sediments topographically inverted, indicating the erosive nature of the landscape. Luminescence ages place the formation of the Shell Bar in MIS 5 (similar to 113-99 ka), much older than previous radiocarbon ages of < 40 ka BP, but place the paleoclimatic inferences more in accord with other regional and global climate proxy records. We present a brief review of the age differences derived from C-14 and OSL dating of some critical sections that were thought to represent a warmer and more humid climate than present during late MIS 3. We attribute the differences to underestimation of C-14 ages. We suggest that C-14 ages older than similar to 25 ka BP may require re-investigation, especially dates on samples from arid regions.
The Tibetan Plateau is a region that is highly sensitive to recent global warming, but the complexity and heterogeneity of its mountainous landscape can result in variable responses. In addition, the scarcity and brevity of regional instrumental and palaeoecological records still hamper our understanding of past and present patterns of environmental change. To investigate how the remote, high-alpine environments of the Nianbaoyeze Mountains, eastern Tibetan Plateau, are affected by climate change and human activity over the last similar to 600 years, we compared regional tree-ring studies with pollen and diatom remains archived in the dated sediments of Dongerwuka Lake (33.22A degrees N, 101.12A degrees E, 4,307 m a.s.l.). In agreement with previous studies from the eastern Tibetan Plateau, a strong coherence between our two juniper-based tree-ring chronologies from the Nianbaoyeze and the Anemaqin Mountains was observed, with pronounced cyclical variations in summer temperature reconstructions. A positive directional trend to warmer summer temperatures in the most recent decades, was, however, not observed in the tree-ring record. Likewise, our pollen and diatom spectra showed minimal change over the investigated time period. Although modest, the most notable change in the diatom relative abundances was a subtle decrease in the dominant planktonic Cyclotella ocellata and a concurrent increase in small, benthic fragilarioid taxa in the similar to 1820s, suggesting higher ecosystem variability. The pollen record subtly indicates three periods of increased cattle grazing activity (similar to 1400-1480 AD, similar to 1630-1760 AD, after 1850 AD), but shows generally no significant vegetation changes during past similar to 600 years. The minimal changes observed in the tree-ring, diatom and pollen records are consistent with the presence of localised cooling centres that are evident in instrumental and tree-ring data within the southeastern and eastern Tibetan Plateau. Given the minor changes in regional temperature records, our complacent palaeoecological profiles suggest that climatically induced ecological thresholds have not yet been crossed in the Nianbaoyeze Mountains region.
Advance in geocomputation
(2014)
Crustal earthquake swarms are an expression of intensive cracking and rock damaging over periods of days, weeks or month in a small source region in the crust. They are caused by longer lasting stress changes in the source region. Often, the localized stressing of the crust is associated with fluid or gas migration, possibly in combination with pre-existing zones of weaknesses. However, verifying and quantifying localized fluid movement at depth remains difficult since the area affected is small and geophysical prospecting methods often cannot reach the required resolution.
We apply a simple and robust method to estimate the velocity ratio between compressional (P) and shear (S) waves (upsilon(P)/upsilon(S)-ratio) in the source region of an earthquake swarm. The upsilon(P)/upsilon(S)-ratio may be unusual small if the swarm is related to gas in a porous or fractured rock. The method uses arrival time difference between P and S waves observed at surface seismic stations, and the associated double differences between pairs of earthquakes. An advantage is that earthquake locations are not required and the method seems lesser dependent on unknown velocity variations in the crust outside the source region. It is, thus, suited for monitoring purposes.
Applications comprise three natural, mid-crustal (8-10 km) earthquake swarms between 1997 and 2008 from the NW-Bohemia swarm region. We resolve a strong temporal decrease of upsilon(P)/upsilon(S) before and during the main activity of the swarm, and a recovery of upsilon(P)/upsilon(S) to background levels at the end of the swarms. The anomalies are interpreted in terms of the Biot-Gassman equations, assuming the presence of oversaturated fluids degassing during the beginning phase of the swarm activity.
Identification and characterization of growing large-scale en-echelon fractures in a salt mine
(2014)
The spatiotemporal seismicity of acoustic emission (AE) events recorded in the Morsleben salt mine is investigated. Almost a year after backfilling of the cavities from 2003, microevents are distributed with distinctive stripe shapes above cavities at different depth levels. The physical forces driving the creation of these stripes are still unknown. This study aims to find the active stripes and track fracture developments over time by combining two different temporal and spatial clustering techniques into a single methodological approach. Anomalous seismicity parameters values like sharp b-value changes for two active stripes are good indicators to explain possible stress accumulation at the stripe tips. We identify the formation of two new seismicity stripes and show that the AE activities in active clusters are migrated mostly unidirectional to eastward and upward. This indicates that the growth of underlying macrofractures is controlled by the gradient of extensional stress. Studying size distribution characteristic in terms of frequency-magnitude distribution and b-value in active phase and phase with constant seismicity rate show that deviations from the Gutenberg-Richter power law can be explained by the inclusion of different activity phases: (1) the inactive period before the formation of macrofractures, which is characterized by a deficit of larger events (higher b-values) and (2) the period of fracture growth characterized by the occurrence of larger events (smaller b-values).
The water-level record from the 300 m deep paleo-lake Suguta (Northern Kenya Rift) during the African Humid Period (AHP, 15-5 ka BP) helps to explain decadal to centennial intensity variations in the West African Monsoon (WAM) and the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). This water-level record was derived from three different sources: (1) grain size variations in radiocarbon dated and reservoir corrected lacustrine sediments, (2) the altitudes and ages of paleo-shorelines within the basin, and (3) the results of hydro-balance modeling, providing important insights into the character of water level variations (abrupt or gradual) in the amplifier paleo-Lake Suguta. The results of these comprehensive analyses suggest that the AHP highstand in the Suguta Valley was the direct consequence of a northeastwards shift in the Congo Air Boundary (CAB), which was in turn caused by an enhanced atmospheric pressure gradient between East Africa and India during a northern hemisphere insolation maximum. Rapidly decreasing water levels of up to 90 m over less than a hundred years are best explained by changes in solar irradiation either reducing the East African-Indian atmospheric pressure gradient and preventing the CAB from reaching the study area, or reducing the overall humidity in the atmosphere, or a combination of both these effects. In contrast, although not well documented in our record we hypothesize a gradual end of the AHP despite an abrupt change in the source of precipitation when a decreasing pressure gradient between Asia and Africa prevented the CAB from reaching the Suguta Valley. The abruptness was probably buffered by a contemporaneous change in precession producing an insolation maximum at the equator during October. Whether or not this is the case, the water-level record from the Suguta Valley demonstrates the importance of both orbitally-controlled insolation variations and short-term changes in solar irradiation as factors affecting the significant water level variations in East African rift lakes.
During the last glacial period lake Kinneret (the Sea of Galilee) fluctuated between high and low water levels reflecting the hydrological conditions of the lake watershed. Here, we focus on the hydrology of the lake after its retreat from the last glacial MIS2 (similar to 27-25 ka BP) highest stand of similar to 170 m below mean sea level (m bsl) to the low stand of similar to 214 m bsl at similar to 24-21 ka BP. The limnological-hydrological history of this time interval is recovered from trench and borehole that were dug and drilled in the southwestern shore of the lake at Ohalo-II archeological site. Cyprideis torosa (Ostracoda) recovered from the trench yielded elemental, Sr-87/Sr-86 and delta O-18 isotope data that provide information on the shore environment during the low stand period. The Sr-87/Sr-86 and Sr/Ca ratios in the ostracods, varying between similar to 0.70789 and similar to 0.70815 and 0.0017 and 0.0030, respectively indicate contributions of waters from the last glacial lake and regional runoff. The increase in the Sr-87/Sr-86 ratios reflects the decreasing effect of the last glacial Lake Kinneret waters and enhanced contribution of local runoff that washed down dried mountain soils that were previously developed during the wet and vegetated glacial. The lake retreat at similar to 24 ka BP coincided with the Heinrich event H2 at the northern Atlantic. H2 was expressed by severe aridity in Lake Kinneret-Dead Sea watershed. The limnological-hydrological change at post H2 was accompanied by 2% decrease in the delta O-18 value from -2% to -4% reflecting the change in the composition of the east Mediterranean rain sources.
The last glacial lake Sr-87/Sr-86 ratio is similar to the Tiberias Spa saline waters and distinctly different from the modern Lake Kinneret fresh waters: Sr-87/Sr-86 similar to 0.70785 compared to similar to 0.70760, respectively. This difference is explained by enhanced contribution of Ca-chloride brines with high Sr-87/Sr-86 values to the last glacial lake and reduced Jordan River contribution due to cold freezing conditions at its headwaters, while the modern Lake Kinneret is more affected by low Sr-87/Sr-86 freshwater from the Jordan watershed.
For a detailed characterization of near-surface environments, geophysical techniques are increasingly used to support more conventional point-based techniques such as borehole and direct-push logging. Because the underlying parameter relations are often complex, site-specific, or even poorly understood, a remaining challenging task is to link the geophysical parameter models to the actual geotechnical target parameters measured only at selected points. We propose a workflow based on nonparametric regression to establish functional relationships between jointly inverted geophysical parameters and selected geotechnical parameters as measured, for example, by different borehole and direct-push tools. To illustrate our workflow, we present field data collected to characterize a near-surface sedimentary environment Our field data base includes crosshole ground penetrating radar (GPR), seismic P-, and S-wave data sets collected between 25 m deep boreholes penetrating sand- and gravel dominated sediments. Furthermore, different typical borehole and direct-push logs are available. We perform a global joint inversion of traveltimes extracted from the crosshole geophysical data using a recently proposed approach based on particle swarm optimization. Our inversion strategy allows for generating consistent models of GPR, P-wave, and S-wave velocities including an appraisal of uncertainties. We analyze the observed complex relationships between geophysical velocities and target parameter logs using the alternating conditional expectation (ACE) algorithm. This nonparametric statistical tool allows us to perform multivariate regression analysis without assuming a specific functional relation between the variables. We are able to explain selected target parameters such as characteristic grain size values or natural gamma activity by our inverted geophysical data and to extrapolate these parameters to the inter-borehole plane covered by our crosshole experiments. We conclude that the ACE algorithm is a powerful tool to analyze a multivariate petrophysical data base and to develop an understanding of how a multi-parameter geophysical model can be linked and translated to selected geotechnical parameters.
Aim To understand the role and significance of the reindeer, Rangifer tarandus (Linnaeus, 1758), as a specific indicator in terms of late Quaternary biogeography and to determine the effects of global climate change on its range and local extinction dynamics at the end of the Ice Age.
Location Late Pleistocene/early Holocene range of reindeer over all of central and western Europe, including southern Scandinavia and northern Iberia, but excluding Russia, Belarus and the Ukraine.
Methods Radiocarbon-dated subfossil records of R. tarandus from both archaeological and natural deposits younger than 25,000 years were assembled in a database. The distribution area was divided into six representative regions. The C-14 dates were calibrated and plotted chronologically in maps in order to compare presence and absence and regional extinction patterns from one region to another.
Main conclusions The late Quaternary record for reindeer in Europe during the last 25 kyr shows a climate-driven dispersal and retreat in response to climate change, with regional variations. The collapse of the mammoth steppe biome did not lead to the local extinction in Europe, as in the case of other megafaunal species. Rangifer tarandus co-existed for about 3000 years during the Late Glacial and early Holocene with typical temperate species such as red deer and roe deer in non-analogue faunal communities. The regional extinction at the end of the Pleistocene coincides with the transition from light open birch/pine forests to pine/deciduous forests.
Velocity models are essential to process two-and three-dimensional ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data. Furthermore, velocity information aids the interpretation of such data sets because velocity variations reflect important material properties such as water content. In many GPR applications, common midpoint (CMP) surveys are routinely collected to determine one-dimensional velocity models at selected locations. To analyse CMP data gathers, spectral velocity analyses relying on the normal-moveout (NMO) model are commonly employed. Using Dix's formula, the derived NMO velocities can be further converted to interval velocities which are needed for processing and interpretation. Because of the inherent assumptions and limitations of such approaches, we investigate and propose an alternative procedure based on the global inversion of reflection travel-times. We use a finite-difference solver of the Eikonal equation to accurately solve the forward problem in combination with particle swarm optimization (PSO) to find one-dimensional GPR velocity models explaining our data. Because PSO is a robust and efficient global optimization tool, our inversion approach includes generating an ensemble of representative solutions that allows us to analyse uncertainties in the model space. Using synthetic data examples, we test and evaluate our inversion approach to analyse CMP data collected across typical near-surface environments. Application to a field data set recorded at a well-constrained test site including a comparison to independent borehole and direct-push data, further illustrates the potential of the proposed approach, which includes a straightforward and understandable appraisal of non-uniqueness and uncertainty issues, respectively. We conclude that our methodology is a feasible and powerful tool to analyse GPR CMP data and allows practitioners and researchers to evaluate the reliability of CMP derived velocity models.
Inferring a ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) for a region in which only a small number of seismic events has been observed is a challenging task. A response to this data scarcity is to utilise data from other regions in the hope that there exist common patterns in the generation of ground motion that can contribute to the development of a GMPE for the region in question. This is not an unreasonable course of action since we expect regional GMPEs to be related to each other. In this work we model this relatedness by assuming that the regional GMPEs occupy a common low-dimensional manifold in the space of all possible GMPEs. As a consequence, the GMPEs are fitted in a joint manner and not independent of each other, borrowing predictive strength from each other's regional datasets. Experimentation on a real dataset shows that the manifold assumption displays better predictive performance over fitting regional GMPEs independent of each other. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
We report delta O-18 and delta C-13 values of 21 fossil shells from the aquatic gastropod Radix from a sediment core taken in the eastern basin of Lake Karakul, Tajikistan (38.86-39.16A degrees N, 73.26-73.56A degrees E, 3,928 m above sea level) and covering the last 4,200 cal yr BP. The lake is surrounded by many palaeoshorelines evidencing former lake-level changes, most likely triggered by changes in meltwater flux. This hypothesis was tested by interpreting the isotope ratios of Radix shells together with delta O-18 values of Ostracoda and of authigenic aragonite. The mean delta O-18 values of Radix and Ostracoda fall along the same long-term trend indicating a change in the isotopic composition of precipitation, which contributed to the glaciers in the catchment as snow and finally as melt water to the lake. The sclerochronological delta O-18 and delta C-13 patterns in Radix shells provide seasonal weather information, which is discussed in context with previously proposed climatic changes during the last 4,200 cal yr BP. The period between similar to 4,200 and 3,000 cal yr BP was characterized by stepwise glacier advance in the catchment most likely due to a precipitation surplus. Subsequently the climate remained relatively cold but the lake level fluctuated, as indicated by ostracod shell isotope data. From similar to 1,800 cal yr BP the sclerochronological patterns provide evidence for increasing melt water flux and transport of allochthonous carbon into the lake, most likely due to an accelerated glacier retreat. The period around 1,500 cal yr BP was characterized by strong warming, increasing meltwater flux, glacier retreat and an increasing lake level. Warm conditions continued until similar to 500 cal yr I'P probably representing the end of the Medieval Warm Period. A short relatively cold (dry?) period and a lower lake level are assumed for similar to 350 cal yr BP, possibly an analogue to the Maunder Minimum cooling in the North Atlantic region. Our results show that the lake system is complex, and that changes were triggered by external forcing and feedbacks. The similarity of delta O-18 values in Radix and ostracod shells demonstrates that both archives provide complementary information.
Leaching of dissolved C in arable hummocky ground moraine soil landscapes is characterized by a spatial continuum of more or less erosion-affected Luvisols, Calcaric Regosols at exposed positions, and Colluvic Regosols in depressions. Our objective was to estimate the fluxes of dissolved C in four differently eroded soils as affected by erosion-induced pedological and soil structural alterations. In this model study, we considered landscape position effects by adapting the water table as the bottom boundary condition and erosion effects by using pedon-specific soil hydraulic properties. The one-dimensional vertical water movement was described with the Richards equation using HYDRUS-1D. Solute fluxes were obtained by combining calculated water fluxes with concentrations of dissolved organic and inorganic C (DOC and DIC, respectively) measured from soil solution extracted by suction cups at biweekly intervals. In the 3-yr period (2010-2012), DOC fluxes in the 2-m soil depth were similar at the three non-colluvic locations with -0.8 +/- 0.1 g m(-2) yr(-1) (i.e., outflow) but were 0.4 g m(-2) yr(-1) (i.e., input) in the depression. The DIC fluxes ranged from -10.2 g m(-2) yr(-1) for the eroded Luvisol, -9.2 g m(-2) yr(-1) for the Luvisol, and -6.1 g m(-2) yr(-1) for the Calcaric Regosol to 3.2 g m(-2) yr(-1) for the Colluvic Regosol. The temporal variations in DOC and DIC fluxes were controlled by water fluxes. The spatially distributed leaching results corroborate the hypothesis that the effects of soil erosion influence fluxes through modified hydraulic and transport properties and terrain-dependent boundary conditions.
Vertical radar profiling (VRP) is a single-borehole geophysical technique, in which the receiver antenna is located within a borehole and the transmitter antenna is placed at one or various offsets from the borehole. Today, VRP surveying is primarily used to derive 1D velocity models by inverting the arrival times of direct waves. Using field data collected at a well-constrained test site in Germany, we evaluated a VRP workflow relying on the analysis of direct-arrival traveltimes and amplitudes as well as on imaging reflection events. To invert our VRP traveltime data, we used a global inversion strategy resulting in an ensemble of acceptable velocity models, and thus, it allowed us to appraise uncertainty issues in the estimated velocities as well as in porosity models derived via petrophysical translations. In addition to traveltime inversion, the analysis of direct-wave amplitudes and reflection events provided further valuable information regarding subsurface properties and architecture. The used VRP amplitude preprocessing and inversion procedures were adapted from raybased crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) attenuation tomography and resulted in an attenuation model, which can be used to estimate variations in electrical resistivity. Our VRP reflection imaging approach relied on corridor stacking, which is a well-established processing sequence in vertical seismic profiling. The resulting reflection image outlines bounding layers and can be directly compared to surface-based GPR reflection profiling. Our results of the combined analysis of VRP, traveltimes, amplitudes, and reflections were consistent with independent core and borehole logs as well as GPR reflection profiles, which enabled us to derive a detailed hydro-stratigraphic model as needed, for example, to understand and model groundwater flow and transport.
Geophysical techniques offer the potential to tomographically image physical parameter variations in the ground in two or three dimensions. Due to the limited number and accuracy of the recorded data, geophysical model generation by inversion suffers ambiguity. Linking the model generation process of disparate data by jointly inverting two or more data sets allows for improved model reconstruction. Fully nonlinear inversion using optimization techniques searching the solution space of the inverse problem globally enables quantitative assessment of the ambiguity inherent to the model reconstruction. We used two different multiobjective particle swarm optimization approaches to jointly invert synthetic crosshole tomographic data sets comprising radar and P-wave traveltimes, respectively. Beginning with a nonlinear joint inversion founded on the principle of Pareto optimality and game theoretic concepts, we obtained a set of Pareto-optimal solutions comprising commonly structured radar and P-wave velocity models for low computational costs. However, the efficiency of the approach goes along with some risk of achieving a final model ensemble not adequately illustrating the ambiguity inherent to the model reconstruction process. Taking advantage of the results of the first approach, we inverted the database using a different nonlinear joint-inversion approach reducing the multiobjective optimization problem to a single-objective one. Computational costs were significantly higher, but the final models were obtained mutually independently allowing for objective appraisal of model parameter determination. Despite the high computational effort, the approach was found to be an efficient nonlinear joint-inversion formulation compared to what could be extracted from individual nonlinear inversions of both data sets.
The goal of China's sloping land conversion programme (SLCP) is to combat soil erosion and to reduce rural poverty. An ex-ante assessment of possible SLCP impacts was conducted with a focus on rural sustainability, taking the drought-prone region of Guyuan in Western China as an example. The Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA) was used to conduct two complementary impact assessments, one assessing SLCP impacts at regional level and a second one assessing alternative forest management options, to explore possible trade-offs among the economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainability. Regional stakeholders assessed the SLCP to be capable of reducing soil erosion but felt it negatively affected rural employment, and a further continuation of the Programme was advocated. Assessment of three forest management scenarios by scientists showed that an orientation towards energy forests is potentially beneficial to all three sustainability dimensions. Ecological forests had disproportionate positive impacts on environmental functions and adverse impact on the other two sustainability dimensions. Economic forests were assessed to serve primarily the economic and social sustainability dimensions, while environmental impacts were still tolerable. The FoPIA results were evaluated against the available literature on the SLCP. Overall, the assessment results appeared to be reasonable, but the results of the regional stakeholders appeared to be too optimistic compared with the more critical assessment of the scientists. The SLCP seems to have the potential to tackle soil erosion but requires integrated forest management to minimize the risk of water stress while contributing to economic and social benefits in Guyuan. Copyright (C) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
On 11 May 2011, a M (w) = 5.1 earthquake shook the town of Lorca (SE Spain) causing a disproportionately large damage for its magnitude. In order to contribute to knowledge of the behavior of the active faults present in the region and define the parameters which control their motion, we made a detailed study of the rupture process of this earthquake from inversion of body waves at regional and teleseismic distances. Ground motion displacements obtained in this way are in agreement with near-field strong motion data and GPS observations recorded in Lorca. We have obtained a partly bilateral rupture propagating to WSW (238A degrees, 54A degrees, 59A degrees) with 27 cm of maximum slip and shallow focus (4 km). The fault plane orientation corresponds to that of the Cejo de los Enamorados Fault located NE of the Lorca town and parallel to the Alhama de Murcia Fault. The distribution of slip on the fault plane can explain the lack of any observed surface rupture as we found that the rupture started at 4-km depth along a plane dipping at 54A degrees, with motion propagating upward to stop at 1.5 km below the surface. The strong motion and GPS data recorded near the epicenter are in agreement with the maximum slip on the fault. Directivity effects and the extreme shallowness of the rupture could explain the considerable damage that the earthquake caused in the town of Lorca.
Scenario analysis is a widely used approach to incorporate uncertainties in global change research. In the context of regional ecosystem service and landscape management where global IPCC climate simulations and their downscaled derivates are applied, it can be useful to work with regional sodo-economic scenarios that are coherent with the global IPCC scenarios. The consistency with the original source scenarios, transparency and reproducibility of the methods used as well as the internal consistency of the derived scenarios are important methodological prerequisites for coherently downscaling pre-existing source scenarios. In contrast to well-established systematic-qualitative scenario techniques, we employ here a formal technique of scenario construction which combines expert judgement with a quantitative, indicator-based selection algorithm in order to deduce a formally consistent set of focus scenario. In our case study, these focus scenarios reflect the potential development pathways of major national-level drivers for ecosystem service management in Swiss mountain regions. The integration of an extra impact factor ("Global Trends") directly referring to the four principle SRES scenario families, helped us to formally internalise base assumptions of IPCC SRES scenarios to regional scenarios that address a different thematic focus (ecosystem service management), spatial level (national) and time horizon (2050). Compared to the well-established systematic-qualitative approach, we find strong similarities between the two methods, including the susceptibility to personal judgement which is only partly reduced by the formal method. However, the formalised scenario approach conveys four clear advantages, (1) the better documentation of the process, (2) its reproducibility, (3) the openness in terms of the number and directions of the finally selected set of scenarios, and (4) its analytical power. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
The age models of fluvio-lacustrine sedimentary sequences are often subject of discussions in paleoclimate research. The techniques employed to build an age model are very diverse, ranging from visual or intuitive estimation of the age-depth relationship over linear or spline interpolations between age control points to sophisticated Bayesian techniques also taking into account the most likely deposition times of the type of sediment within the sequence. All these methods, however, fail in detecting abrupt variations in sedimentation rates, including the possibility of episodes of no deposition (hiatus), which is the strength of the method presented in this work. The new technique simply compares the deposition time of equally thick sediment slices from the differences of subsequent radiometric age dates and the unit deposition times of the various sediment types. The percentage overlap of the distributions of these two sources of information, together with the evidence from the sedimentary record, helps to build an age model of complex sequences including abrupt variations in the rate of deposition including one or many hiatuses. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Due to its high spatial and temporal variability, preferential flow is difficult to measure and quantify. Earthworms create macropores that provide common pathways for preferential flow. Therefore in this article, we link earthworm abundance to macropore numbers and hydrological effectiveness, with the future aim to use species distribution models of earthworms for the spatial parameterization of preferential flow.
Earthworms are generally categorized into three ecological types with varying burrowing behaviour, resulting in a different impact on soil hydrological processes. Therefore, we studied the relationships between the abundance of the earthworm ecological types and macropores of different size classes and in different soil depths. The abundance and biomass of earthworms were well correlated to different sizes of macropores in different soil depths. This is mainly the case for the larger, vertically oriented macropores (>6mm diameter), which are generally connected to the soil surface and hydrologically most effective. The correlation of total earthworm biomass and macropores ranges from 072 to 089 for different soil depths.
Although there is quite some variation in infiltration patterns, infiltration from macropores into the matrix is profile-specific, as it varies strongly between profiles, but not within one profile. Macropore coating seems to have a larger effect on this macropore matrix interaction than the soil physical properties of the matrix. Although the amount of macropores and their effectiveness are clearly related to the earthworm distribution, the variation in infiltration from macropores to soil matrix should be further studied.
Concerns about the regional impact of global climate change in a warming scenario have highlighted the gaps in our understanding of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM, also referred to as the Indian Ocean summer monsoon) and the absence of long term palaeoclimate data from the central Indian core monsoon zone (CMZ). Here we present the first high resolution, well-dated, multiproxy reconstruction of Holocene palaeoclimate from a 10 m long sediment core raised from the Lonar Lake in central India. We show that while the early Holocene onset of-intensified monsoon in the CMZ is similar to that reported from other ISM records, the Lonar data shows two prolonged droughts (PD, multidecadal to centennial periods of weaker monsoon) between 4.6-3.9 and 2-0.6 cal ka. A comparison of our record with available data from other ISM influenced sites shows that the impact of these PD was observed in varying degrees throughout the ISM realm and coincides with intervals of higher solar irradiance. We demonstrate that (i) the regional warming in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (IPWP) plays an important role in causing ISM PD through changes in meridional overturning circulation and position of the anomalous Walker cell; (ii) the long term influence of conditions like El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the ISM began only ca. 2 cal ka BP and is coincident with the warming of the southern IPWP; (iii) the first settlements in central India coincided with the onset of the first PD and agricultural populations flourished between the two PD, highlighting the significance of natural climate variability and PD as major environmental factors affecting human settlements.
The ratio of unsupported protactinium-231 to thorium-230 in marine sediments, (Pa/Th)(xs), is potentially sensitive to several processes of oceanographic and climatological interest: deep ocean circulation, marine biological productivity (as it relates to total particle flux) and particle composition (specifically, biogenic opal and authigenic Mn). In order to attribute variations in (Pa/Th)(xs) observed in sediment records to changes in specific processes through time, a better understanding of the chemical cycling of these elements in the modern ocean is necessary. To this end, a survey was undertaken of (Pa/Th)(xs) in surface sediments from the subarctic Pacific (SO202-INOPEX expedition) in combination with a Pacific-wide compilation of published data. Throughout the Pacific, (Pa/Th)(xs) is robustly correlated with the opal content of sediments. In the North and equatorial Pacific, simultaneous positive correlations with productivity indicators suggest that boundary scavenging and opal scavenging combine to enhance the removal of Pa in the eastern equatorial Pacific and subarctic Pacific. Deep ocean water mass ageing (>3.5 km) associated with the Pacific overturning appears to play a secondary role in determining the basin scale distribution of (Pa/Th)(xs). A basin-wide extrapolation of Pa removal is performed which suggests that the Pacific Pa budget is nearly in balance. We hypothesize that through time (Pa/Th)(xs) distributions in the Pacific could define the evolving boundaries of contrasting biogeographic provinces in the North Pacific, while the influence of hydrothermal scavenging of Pa potentially confounds this approach in the South Pacific.
Our study aims at gaining insights into the processes determining the current treeline dynamics in Finnish Lapland. Using forest surveys conducted in 1978 and 2003 we modelled the occurrence and abundance of three dominant tree species in Finnish Lapland, i.e. Pinus sylvestris, Picea abies and Betula pubescens, with boosted regression trees. We assessed the importance of climatic, biotic and topographic variables in predicting tree occurrence and abundance based on their relative importance and response curves. We compared temporal and spatial transferability by using an extended transferability index.
Site fertility, the abundance of co-occurring species and growing degree days were generally the most important predictors for both occurrence and abundance across all species and datasets. Climatic predictors were more important for modelling occurrences than for modelling abundances. Occurrence models were able to reproduce the observed treeline pattern within one time period or region. Abundance models underestimated basal area but captured the general pattern of low and high values. Model performance as well as transferability differed considerably between species and datasets. Pinus sylvestris was modelled more successfully than P. abies and B. pubescens. Generally, spatial transferability was greater than temporal transferability. Comparing the environmental space between datasets revealed that transferring models means extrapolating to novel environments, providing a plausible explanation for limited transferability.
Our study illustrates how climate change can shift the environmental space and lead to limited model transferability. We identified non-climatic factors to be important in predicting the distribution of dominant tree species, contesting the widespread assumption of climatically induced range expansion.
Global Positioning System (GPS) has been proven to be an effective tool to retrieve high-precision displacement for the natural hazard monitoring. The network positioning and Precise Point Positioning (PPP) are the two basic approaches for its data solution, but the former one can only get a relative displacement within the local reference frame and requires a complex and continuously linked infrastructure, and the latter one with a long convergence time to obtain the absolute displacements within the global reference frame. To overcome these drawbacks, this paper proposed a method of fast determining the displacement by PPP velocity estimation (PPPVE). The key of the approach is that the velocity vector parameters are not correlated with other unknown parameters, such as ambiguities and atmosphere, so they can be fast and accurately estimated and integrated into displacements. The validation shows that the displacement can be provided with a precision of 1-2 cm in 1 min by PPPVE. In additional, the Kalman smoothing estimation can be used to improve the PPP solution.
We suggest a new clustering approach to classify focal mechanisms from large moment tensor catalogues, with the purpose of automatically identify families of earthquakes with similar source geometry, recognize the orientation of most active faults, and detect temporal variations of the rupture processes. The approach differs in comparison to waveform similarity methods since clusters are detected even if they occur in large spatial distances. This approach is particularly helpful to analyse large moment tensor catalogues, as in microseismicity applications, where a manual analysis and classification is not feasible. A flexible algorithm is here proposed: it can handle different metrics, norms, and focal mechanism representations. In particular, the method can handle full moment tensor or constrained source model catalogues, for which different metrics are suggested. The method can account for variable uncertainties of different moment tensor components. We verify the method with synthetic catalogues. An application to real data from mining induced seismicity illustrates possible applications of the method and demonstrate the cluster detection and event classification performance with different moment tensor catalogues. Results proof that main earthquake source types occur on spatially separated faults, and that temporal changes in the number and characterization of focal mechanism clusters are detected. We suggest that moment tensor clustering can help assessing time dependent hazard in mines.
We apply and evaluate a recent machine learning method for the automatic classification of seismic waveforms. The method relies on Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) and supervised learning to improve the detection capabilities at 3C seismic stations. A time-frequency decomposition provides the basis for the required signal characteristics we need in order to derive the features defining typical "signal" and "noise" patterns. Each pattern class is modeled by a DBN, specifying the interrelationships of the derived features in the time-frequency plane. Subsequently, the models are trained using previously labeled segments of seismic data. The DBN models can now be compared against in order to determine the likelihood of new incoming seismic waveform segments to be either signal or noise. As the noise characteristics of seismic stations varies smoothly in time (seasonal variation as well as anthropogenic influence), we accommodate in our approach for a continuous adaptation of the DBN model that is associated with the noise class. Given the difficulty for obtaining a golden standard for real data (ground truth) the proof of concept and evaluation is shown by conducting experiments based on 3C seismic data from the International Monitoring Stations, BOSA and LPAZ.
The soils on four lithologies (basaltic conglomerates, Bohio; Andesite; volcanoclastic sediments with basaltic agglomerates, Caimito volcanic; foraminiferal limestone, Caimito marine) on Barro Colorado Island (BCI have high exchangeable Ca concentrations and cation-exchange capacities (CEC) compared to other tropical soils on similar parent material. In the 0-10 cm layer of 24 mineral soils, pH values ranged from 5.7 (Caimito volcanic and Andesite) to 6.5 (Caimito marine), concentrations of exchangeable Ca from 134 mmol(c) kg(-1) (Caimito volcanic) to 585 mmolc kg-1 (Caimito marine), and cation exchange capacities from 317 mmol(c) kg(-1) (Caimito volcanic) to 933 mmol(c) kg(-1) (Caimito marine). X-ray diffractometry of the fraction <2 mu m revealed that smectites dominated the clay mineral assemblage in soil except on Caimito volcanic, where kaolinite was the dominant clay mineral. Exchangeable Ca concentrations decreased with increasing soil depth except on Caimito marine. The weathering indices Chemical Index of Alteration (CIA), Plagioclase Index of Alteration (PIA) and Weathering Index of Parker (WIP) determined for five soils on all geological formations, suggested that in contrast to expectation the topsoil (0-10 cm) appeared to be the least and the subsoil (50-70 cm) and saprolite (isomorphically weathered rock in the soil matrix) the most weathered. Additionally, the weathering indices indicated depletion of base cations and enrichment of Al-(hydr)oxides throughout the soil profile. Tree species did not have an effect on soil properties. Impeded leaching and the related occurrence of overland flow seem to be important in determining clay mineralogy. Our results suggest that (i) edaphic conditions favor the formation of smectites on most lithologies resulting in high CEC and thus high retention capacity for Ca and (ii) that there is an external source such as dust or sea spray deposition supplying Ca to the soils.
A wide range of basic and applied problems in water resources research requires high-quality estimates of the spatial mean of throughfall. Many throughfall sampling schemes, however, are not optimally adapted to the system under study. The application of inappropriate sampling schemes may partly reflect the lack of generally applicable guidelines on throughfall sampling strategies. In this study we conducted virtual sampling experiments using simulated fields which are based on empirical throughfall data from three structurally distinct forests (a 12-year old teak plantation, a 5-year old young secondary forest, and a 130-year old secondary forest). In the virtual sampling experiments we assessed the relative error of mean throughfall estimates for 38 different throughfall sampling schemes comprising a variety of funnel- and trough-type collectors and a large range of sample sizes. Moreover, we tested the performance of each scheme for both event-based and accumulated throughfall data. The key findings of our study are threefold. First, as errors of mean throughfall estimates vary as a function of throughfall depth, the decision on which temporal scale (i.e. event-based versus accumulated data) to sample strongly influences the required sampling effort. Second, given a chosen temporal scale throughfall estimates can vary considerably as a function of canopy complexity. Accordingly, throughfall sampling in simply structured forests requires a comparatively modest effort, whereas heterogeneous forests can be extreme in terms of sampling requirements, particularly if the focus is on reliable data of small events. Third, the efficiency of trough-type collectors depends on the spatial structure of throughfall. Strong, long-ranging throughfall patterns decrease the efficiency of troughs substantially. Based on the results of our virtual sampling experiments, which we evaluated by applying two contrasting sampling approaches simultaneously, we derive readily applicable guidelines for throughfall monitoring. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The Relative Pollen Productivities (RPPs) of common steppe species are estimated using Extended R-value (ERV) model based on pollen analysis and vegetation survey of 30 surface soil samples from typical steppe area of northern China. Artemisia, Chenopodiaceae, Poaceae, Cyperaceae, and Asteraceae are the dominant pollen types in pollen assemblages, reflecting the typical steppe communities well. The five dominant pollen types and six common types (Thalictrum, Iridaceae, Potentilla, Ephedra, Brassicaceae, and Ulmus) have strong wind transport abilities; the estimated Relevant Source Area of Pollen (RSAP) is ca. 1000 m when the sediment basin radius is set at 0.5 m. Ulmus, Artemisia, Brassicaceae, Chenopodiaceae, and Thalictrum have relative high RPPs; Poaceae, Cyperaceae, Potentilla, and Ephedra pollen have moderate RPPs; Asteraceae and Iridaceae have low RPPs. The reliability test of RPPs revealed that most of the RPPs are reliable in past vegetation reconstruction. However, the RPPs of Asteraceae and Iridaceae are obviously underestimated, and those of Poaceae, Chenopodiaceae, and Ephedra are either slightly underestimated or slightly overestimated, suggesting that those RPPs should be considered with caution. These RPPs were applied to estimating plant abundances for two fossil pollen spectra (from the Lake Bayanchagan and Lake Haoluku) covering the Holocene in typical steppe area, using the "Regional Estimates of Vegetation Abundance from Large Sites" (REVEALS) model. The RPPs-based vegetation reconstruction revealed that meadow-steppe dominated by Poaceae, Cyperaceae, and Artemisia plants flourished in this area before 6500-5600 cal yr BP, and then was replaced by present typical steppe.
Kinematic interaction of faults is an important issue for detailed seismic hazard assessments in seismically active regions. The Eastern Mosha Fault (EMF) and the North Tehran Fault (NTF) are two major active faults of the southern central Alborz mountains, located in proximity of Tehran (population similar to 9 million). We used field, geomorphological and paleoseismological data to explore the kinematic transition between the faults, and compare their short-term and long-term history of activity. We introduce the Niknamdeh segment of the NTF along which the strike-slip kinematics of EMF is transferred onto the NTF, and which is also responsible for the development of a pull-apart basin between the eastern segments of the NTF. The Ira trench site at the linkage zone between the two faults reveals the history of interaction between rock avalanches, active faulting and sag-pond development. The kinematic continuity between the EMF and NTF requires updating of seismic hazard models for the NTF, the most active fault adjacent to the Tehran Metropolis. Study of offsets of large-scale morphological features along the EMF, and comparison with estimated slip rates along the fault indicates that the EMF has started its left-lateral kinematics between 3.2 and 4.7 Ma. According to our paleoseismological data and the morphology of the nearby EMF and NTF, we suggest minimum and maximum values of about 1.8 and 3.0 mm/year for the left-lateral kinematics on the two faults in their linkage zone, averaged over Holocene time scales. Our study provides a partial interpretation, based on available data, for the fault activity in northeastern Tehran region, which may be completed with studies of other active faults of the region to evaluate a more realistic seismic hazard analysis for this heavily populated major city. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.