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Birth weight variation is influenced by fetal and maternal genetic and non-genetic factors, and has been reproducibly associated with future cardio-metabolic health outcomes. In expanded genome-wide association analyses of own birth weight (n = 321,223) and offspring birth weight (n = 230,069 mothers), we identified 190 independent association signals (129 of which are novel). We used structural equation modeling to decompose the contributions of direct fetal and indirect maternal genetic effects, then applied Mendelian randomization to illuminate causal pathways. For example, both indirect maternal and direct fetal genetic effects drive the observational relationship between lower birth weight and higher later blood pressure: maternal blood pressure-raising alleles reduce offspring birth weight, but only direct fetal effects of these alleles, once inherited, increase later offspring blood pressure. Using maternal birth weight-lowering genotypes to proxy for an adverse intrauterine environment provided no evidence that it causally raises offspring blood pressure, indicating that the inverse birth weight-blood pressure association is attributable to genetic effects, and not to intrauterine programming.
The goal of China's sloping land conversion programme (SLCP) is to combat soil erosion and to reduce rural poverty. An ex-ante assessment of possible SLCP impacts was conducted with a focus on rural sustainability, taking the drought-prone region of Guyuan in Western China as an example. The Framework for Participatory Impact Assessment (FoPIA) was used to conduct two complementary impact assessments, one assessing SLCP impacts at regional level and a second one assessing alternative forest management options, to explore possible trade-offs among the economic, social and environmental dimensions of sustainability. Regional stakeholders assessed the SLCP to be capable of reducing soil erosion but felt it negatively affected rural employment, and a further continuation of the Programme was advocated. Assessment of three forest management scenarios by scientists showed that an orientation towards energy forests is potentially beneficial to all three sustainability dimensions. Ecological forests had disproportionate positive impacts on environmental functions and adverse impact on the other two sustainability dimensions. Economic forests were assessed to serve primarily the economic and social sustainability dimensions, while environmental impacts were still tolerable. The FoPIA results were evaluated against the available literature on the SLCP. Overall, the assessment results appeared to be reasonable, but the results of the regional stakeholders appeared to be too optimistic compared with the more critical assessment of the scientists. The SLCP seems to have the potential to tackle soil erosion but requires integrated forest management to minimize the risk of water stress while contributing to economic and social benefits in Guyuan. Copyright (C) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.