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Most 2.5D controlled-source electromagnetic (CSEM) modeling algorithms presented to date explicitly consider only sources that are point dipoles oriented parallel or perpendicular to the direction of constant conductivity. This makes simulations of complex source geometries expensive, requiring separate evaluations of many point dipole fields, and thus limits the practical applicability of such schemes for simulating and interpreting field data. We present a novel 2.5D CSEM modeling scheme that overcomes this limitation and permits efficient simulations of sources with general shape and orientation by evaluating fields for the entire source at once. We accommodate general sources by using a secondary field approach, in which primary fields are computed for the general source and a 1D background conductivity model. To carry out the required Fourier transforms between space and wavenumber domain using the same fast cosine and sine transform filters as in conventional algorithms, we split the primary and secondary fields into their symmetric and antisymmetric parts. For complex 3D source geometries, this approach is significantly more efficient than previous 2.5D algorithms. Our finite-difference algorithm also includes novel approaches for divergence correction at low frequencies and EM field interpolation across conductivity discontinuities. We describe the modeling scheme and demonstrate its accuracy and efficiency by comparisons of 2.5D-simulated data with 1D and 3D results.
This study monitors regional changes in the crystallinity of carbonaceous matter (CM) by applying Micro-Raman spectroscopy to a total of 214 metasediment samples (largely so-called Bundnerschiefer) dominantly metamorphosed under blueschist- to amphibolite-facies conditions. They were collected within the northeastern margin of the Lepontine dome and easterly adjacent areas of the Swiss Central Alps. Three-dimensional mapping of isotemperature contours in map and profile views shows that the isotemperature contours associated with the Miocene Barrow-type Lepontine metamorphic event cut across refolded nappe contacts, both along and across strike within the northeastern margin of the Lepontine dome and adjacent areas. Further to the northeast, the isotemperature contours reflect temperatures reached during the Late Eocene subduction-related blueschist-facies event and/or during subsequent near-isothermal decompression; these contours appear folded by younger, large-scale post-nappe-stacking folds. A substantial jump in the recorded maximum temperatures across the tectonic contact between the frontal Adula nappe complex and surrounding metasediments indicates that this contact accommodated differential tectonic movement of the Adula nappe with respect to the enveloping Bundnerschiefer after maximum temperatures were reached within the northern Adula nappe, i.e. after Late Eocene time.
Hydrocarbons can be found in many different habitats and represent an important carbon source for microbes. As fossil fuels, they are also an important economical resource and through natural seepage or accidental release they can be major pollutants. DNA-specific stains and molecular probes bind to hydrocarbons, causing massive background fluorescence, thereby hampering cell enumeration. The cell extraction procedure of Kallmeyer et al. (2008) separates the cells from the sediment matrix. In principle, this technique can also be used to separate cells from oily sediments, but it was not originally optimized for this application. Here we present a modified extraction method in which the hydrocarbons are removed prior to cell extraction. Due to the reduced background fluorescence the microscopic image becomes clearer, making cell identification, and enumeration much easier. Consequently, the resulting cell counts from oily samples treated according to our new protocol are significantly higher than those treated according to Kallmeyer et al. (2008). We tested different amounts of a variety of solvents for their ability to remove hydrocarbons and found that n-hexane and in samples containing more mature oils methanol, delivered the best results. However, as solvents also tend to lyse cells, it was important to find the optimum solvent to sample ratio, at which hydrocarbon extraction is maximized and cell lysis minimized. A volumetric ratio of 1:2-1:5 between a formalin-fixed sediment slurry and solvent delivered highest cell counts. Extraction efficiency was around 30-50% and was checked on both oily samples spiked with known amounts of E. coli cells and oil-free samples amended with fresh and biodegraded oil. The method provided reproducible results on samples containing very different kinds of oils with regard to their degree of biodegradation. For strongly biodegraded oil MeOH turned out to be the most appropriate solvent, whereas for less biodegraded samples n-hexane delivered best results.
In this paper we evaluate different methods to predict soil erosion processes. We derived different layers of predictor variables for the study area in the Northern Chianti, Italy, describing the soil-lithologic complex, land use, and topographic characteristics. For a subcatchment of the Orme River, we mapped erosion processes by interpreting aerial photographs and field observations. These were classified as erosional response units (ERU), i.e. spatial areas of homogeneous erosion processes. The ERU were used as the response variable in the soil erosion modelling process. We applied two models i) bootstrap aggregation (Random Forest: RF), and ii) stochastic gradient boosting (TreeNet: TN) to predict the potential spatial distribution of erosion processes for the entire Orme River catchment. The models are statistically evaluated using training data and a set of performance parameters such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Cohen's Kappa, and pseudo R2. Variable importance and response curves provide further insight into controlling factors of erosion. Both models provided good performance in terms of classification and calibration; however, TN outperformed RF. Similar classes such as active and inactive landslides can be discriminated and well interpreted by considering response curves and relative variable importance. The spatial distribution of the predicted erosion susceptibilities generally follows topographic constraints and is similar for both models. Hence, the model-based delineation of ERU on the basis of soil and terrain information is a valuable tool in geomorphology; it provides insights into factors controlling erosion processes and may allow the extrapolation and prediction of erosion processes in unsurveyed areas.
A poorly understood lag time of 15-20 m.y. exists between the initial Arabia-Eurasia continental collision in late Eocene to early Oligocene time and the acceleration of tectonic and sedimentary processes across the collision zone in the early to late Miocene. The late Eocene to Miocene-Pliocene clastic and shallow-marine sedimentary rocks of the Kond, Eyvanekey, and Semnan Basins in the Alborz Mountains (northern Iran) offer the possibility to track the evolution of this orogen in the framework of collision processes. A transition from volcaniclastic submarine deposits to shallow-marine evaporites and terrestrial sediments occurred shortly after 36 Ma in association with reversals in sediment provenance, strata tilting, and erosional unroofing. These events followed the termination of subduction arc magmatism and marked a changeover from an extensional to a contractional regime in response to initiation of continental collision with the subduction of stretched Arabian lithosphere. This early stage of collision produced topographic relief associated with shallow foreland basins, suggesting that shortening and tectonic loading occurred at low rates. Starting from the early Miocene (17.5 Ma), flexural subsidence in response to foreland basin initiation occurred. Fast sediment accumulation rates and erosional unroofing trends point to acceleration of shortening by the early Miocene. We suggest that the lag time between the initiation of continental collision (36 Ma) and the acceleration of regional deformation (20-17.5 Ma) reflects a two-stage collision process, involving the "soft" collision of stretched lithosphere at first and "hard" collision following the arrival of unstretched Arabian continental litho sphere in the subduction zone.
The aim of this paper is to estimate the Hurst parameter of Fractional Gaussian Noise (FGN) using Bayesian inference. We propose an estimation technique that takes into account the full correlation structure of this process. Instead of using the integrated time series and then applying an estimator for its Hurst exponent, we propose to use the noise signal directly. As an application we analyze the time series of the Nile River, where we find a posterior distribution which is compatible with previous findings. In addition, our technique provides natural error bars for the Hurst exponent.
Enhancing the resolution and accuracy of surface ground-penetrating radar (GPR) reflection data by inverse filtering to recover a zero-phased band-limited reflectivity image requires a deconvolution technique that takes the mixed-phase character of the embedded wavelet into account. In contrast, standard stochastic deconvolution techniques assume that the wavelet is minimum phase and, hence, often meet with limited success when applied to GPR data. We present a new general-purpose blind deconvolution algorithm for mixed-phase wavelet estimation and deconvolution that (1) uses the parametrization of a mixed-phase wavelet as the convolution of the wavelet's minimum-phase equivalent with a dispersive all-pass filter, (2) includes prior information about the wavelet to be estimated in a Bayesian framework, and (3) relies on the assumption of a sparse reflectivity. Solving the normal equations using the data autocorrelation function provides an inverse filter that optimally removes the minimum-phase equivalent of the wavelet from the data, which leaves traces with a balanced amplitude spectrum but distorted phase. To compensate for the remaining phase errors, we invert in the frequency domain for an all-pass filter thereby taking advantage of the fact that the action of the all-pass filter is exclusively contained in its phase spectrum. A key element of our algorithm and a novelty in blind deconvolution is the inclusion of prior information that allows resolving ambiguities in polarity and timing that cannot be resolved using the sparseness measure alone. We employ a global inversion approach for non-linear optimization to find the all-pass filter phase values for each signal frequency. We tested the robustness and reliability of our algorithm on synthetic data with different wavelets, 1-D reflectivity models of different complexity, varying levels of added noise, and different types of prior information. When applied to realistic synthetic 2-D data and 2-D field data, we obtain images with increased temporal resolution compared to the results of standard processing.
Hydrologic modelers often need to know which method of quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) is best suited for a particular catchment. Traditionally, QPE methods are verified and benchmarked against independent rain gauge observations. However, the lack of spatial representativeness limits the value of such a procedure. Alternatively, one could drive a hydrological model with different QPE products and choose the one which best reproduces observed runoff. Unfortunately, the calibration of conceptual model parameters might conceal actual differences between the QPEs. To avoid such effects, we abandoned the idea of determining optimum parameter sets for all QPE being compared. Instead, we carry out a large number of runoff simulations, confronting each QPE with a common set of random parameters. By evaluating the goodness-of-fit of all simulations, we obtain information on whether the quality of competing QPE methods is significantly different. This knowledge is inferred exactly at the scale of interest-the catchment scale. We use synthetic data to investigate the ability of this procedure to distinguish a truly superior QPE from an inferior one. We find that the procedure is prone to failure in the case of linear systems. However, we show evidence that in realistic (nonlinear) settings, the method can provide useful results even in the presence of moderate errors in model structure and streamflow observations. In a real-world case study on a small mountainous catchment, we demonstrate the ability of the verification procedure to reveal additional insights as compared to a conventional cross validation approach.
The public promotion of renewable energies is expected to increase the number of biogas plants and stimulate energy crops cultivation (e. g. maize) in Germany. In order to assess the indirect effects of the resulting land-use changes on biodiversity, we developed six land-use scenarios and simulated the responses of six farmland wildlife species with the spatially explicit agent-based model system ALMaSS. The scenarios differed in composition and spatial configuration of arable crops. We implemented scenarios where maize for energy production replaced 15% and 30% of the area covered by other cash crops. Biogas maize farms were either randomly distributed or located within small or large aggregation clusters. The animal species investigated were skylark (Alauda arvensis), grey partridge (Perdix perdix), European brown hare (Lepus europaeus), field vole (Microtus agrestis), a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra) and a carabid beetle (Bembidion lampros). The changes in crop composition had a negative effect on the population sizes of skylark, partridge and hare and a positive effect on the population sizes of spider and beetle and no effect on the population size of vole. An aggregated cultivation of maize amplified these effects for skylark. Species responses to changes in the crop composition were consistent across three differently structured landscapes. Our work suggests that with the compliance to some recommendations, negative effects of biogas-related land-use change on the populations of the six representative farmland species can largely be avoided.
Challenges in understanding the hydrologic controls on the mobility of slow-moving landslides
(2011)
Slow-moving landslides are a wide-spread type of active mass movement, can cause severe damages to infrastructure, and may be a precursor of sudden catastrophic slope failures. Pore-water pressure is commonly regarded as the most important among a number of possible factors controlling landslide velocity. We used high-resolution monitoring data to explore the relations of landslide mobility and hydrologic processes at the Heumoser landslide in Austria, which is characterized by continuous slow movement along a shear zone. Movement rates showed a seasonality that was associated with elevated pore-water pressures. Pore pressure monitoring revealed a system of confined and separated aquifers with differing dynamics. Analysis of a simple infinite slope mobility model showed that small variations in parameters, along with measured pore pressure dynamics, provided a perfect match to our observations. Modeling showed a stabilizing effect of snow cover due to the additional load. This finding was supported by a multiple regression model, which further suggested that effective pore pressures at the slip surface were partially differing from the borehole observations and were related to preferential infiltration and subsurface flow in adjacent areas. It appears that in a setting like the Heumoser landslide, hydrologic processes delicately influence slope mobility through their control on pore pressure dynamics and the weight of the landslide body, which challenges observation and modeling. Moreover, it appears that their simplicity, and especially their high sensitivity to parameter variations, limits the conclusions that can be drawn from infinite slope models.
We study changes in effective stress (normal stress minus pore pressure) that occurred in the French Alps during the 2003-2004 Ubaye earthquake swarm. Two complementary data sets are used. First, a set of 974 relocated events allows us to finely characterize the shape of the seismogenic area and the spatial migration of seismicity during the crisis. Relocations are performed by a double-difference algorithm. We compute differences in travel times at stations both from absolute picking times and from cross-correlation delays of multiplets. The resulting catalog reveals a swarm alignment along a single planar structure striking N130 degrees E and dipping 80 degrees W. This relocated activity displays migration properties consistent with a triggering by a diffusive fluid overpressure front. This observation argues in favor of a deep-seated fluid circulation responsible for a significant part of the seismic activity in Ubaye. Second, we analyze time series of earthquake detections at a single seismological station located just above the swarm. This time series forms a dense chronicle of +16,000 events. We use it to estimate the history of effective stress changes during this sequence. For this purpose we model the rate of events by a stochastic epidemic-type aftershock sequence model with a nonstationary background seismic rate lambda(0)(t). This background rate is estimated in discrete time windows. Window lengths are determined optimally according to a new change-point method on the basis of the interevent times distribution. We propose that background events are triggered directly by a transient fluid circulation at depth. Then, using rate-and-state constitutive friction laws, we estimate changes in effective stress for the observed rate of background events. We assume that changes in effective stress occurred under constant shear stressing rate conditions. We finally obtain a maximum change in effective stress close to -8 MPa, which corresponds to a maximum fluid overpressure of about 8 MPa under constant normal stress conditions. This estimate is in good agreement with values obtained from numerical modeling of fluid flow at depth, or with direct measurements reported from fluid injection experiments.
To investigate and quantify main physical heat driving processes affecting the present-day subsurface thermal field, we study a complex geological setting, the Northeast German Basin (NEGB). The internal geological structure of the NEGB is characterized by the presence of a relatively thick layer of Permian Zechstein salt (up to 5000 m), which forms many salt diapirs and pillows locally reaching nearly the surface. By means of three-dimensional numerical simulations we explore the role of heat conduction, pressure, and density driven groundwater flow as well as fluid viscosity related effects. Our results suggest that the regional temperature distribution within the basin results from interactions between regional pressure forces as driven by topographic gradients and thermal diffusion locally enhanced by thermal conductivity contrasts between the different sedimentary rocks with the highly conductive salt playing a prominent role. In contrast, buoyancy forces triggered by temperature-dependent fluid density variations are demonstrated to affect only locally the internal thermal configuration. Locations, geometry, and wavelengths of convective thermal anomalies are mainly controlled by the permeability field and thickness values of the respective geological layers.
Climatic forcing on channel profiles in the eastern cordillera of the Coroico Region, Bolivia
(2011)
Orographic precipitation has a large impact on channel morphology and rock uplift via a positive feedback to erosion. We show that in the Eastern Cordillera of Bolivia, channel concavities reach their highest values where annual precipitation increases in the downstream direction, exceeding 3000 mm. The steepest channels are upstream of this zone of high concavity, where precipitation rates are <1000 mm yr(-1). Channels exhibit graded forms both upstream and downstream of this transient reach. We conclude that the prolonged effect of orographic erosion and related tectonic uplift is the preservation of channels with extreme concavities in the Eastern Cordillera.
The complete consumption of the oceanic domain of a tectonic plate by subduction into the upper mantle results in continent subduction, although continental crust is typically of lower density than the upper mantle. Thus, the sites of former oceanic domains (named suture zones) are generally decorated with stratigraphic sequences deposited along continental passive margins that were metamorphosed under low-grade, high-pressure conditions, i.e., low temperature/depth ratios (< 15°C/km) with respect to geothermal gradients in tectonically stable regions. Throughout the Mesozoic and Cenozoic (i.e., since ca. 250 Ma), the Mediterranean realm was shaped by the closure of the Tethyan Ocean, which likely consisted in numerous oceanic domains and microcontinents. However, the exact number and position of Tethyan oceans and continents (i.e., the Tethyan palaeogeography) remains debated. This is particularly the case of Western and Central Anatolia, where a continental fragment was accreted to the southern composite margin of the Eurasia sometime between the Late Cretaceous and the early Cenozoic. The most frontal part of this microcontinent experienced subduction-related metamorphism around 85-80 Ma, and collision-related metamorphism affected more external parts around 35 Ma. This unsually-long period between subduction- and collision-related metamorphisms (ca. 50 Ma) in units ascribed to the same continental edge constitutes a crucial issue to address in order to unravel how Anatolia was assembled. The Afyon Zone is a tectono-sedimentary unit exposed south and structurally below the front high-pressure belt. It is composed of a Mesozoic sedimentary sequence deposited on top of a Precambrian to Palaeozoic continental substratum, which can be traced from Northwestern to southern Central Anatolia, along a possible Tethyan suture. Whereas the Afyon Zone was defined as a low-pressure metamorphic unit, high-pressure minerals (mainly Fe-Mg-carpholite in metasediments) were recently reported from its central part. These findings shattered previous conceptions on the tectono-metamorphic evolution of the Afyon Zone in particular, and of the entire region in general, and shed light on the necessity to revise the regional extent of subduction-related metamorphism by re-inspecting the petrology of poorly-studied metasediments. In this purpose, I re-evaluated the metamorphic evolution of the entire Afyon Zone starting from field observations. Low-grade, high-pressure mineral assemblages (Fe-Mg-carpholite and glaucophane) are reported throughout the unit. Well-preserved carpholite-chloritoid assemblages are useful to improve our understanding of mineral relations and transitions in the FeO-MgO-Al2O3-SiO2-H2O system during rocks’ travel down to depth (prograde metamorphism). Inspection of petrographic textures, minute variations in mineral composition and Mg-Fe distribution among carpholite-chloritoid assemblages documents multistage mineral growth, accompanied by a progressive enrichment in Mg, and strong element partitioning. Using an updated database of mineral thermodynamic properties, I modelled the pressure and temperature conditions that are consistent with textural and chemical observations. Carpholite-bearing assemblages in the Afyon Zone account for a temperature increase from 280 to 380°C between 0.9 and 1.1 GPa (equivalent to a depth of 30-35 km). In order to further constrain regional geodynamics, first radiometric ages were determined in close association with pressure-temperature estimates for the Afyon Zone, as well as two other tectono-sedimentary units from the same continental passive margin (the Ören and Kurudere-Nebiler Units from SW Anatolia). For age determination, I employed 40Ar-39Ar geochronology on white mica in carpholite-bearing rocks. For thermobarometry, a multi-equilibrium approach was used based on quartz-chlorite-mica and quartz-chlorite-chloritoid associations formed at the expense of carpholite-bearing assemblages, i.e., during the exhumation from the subduction zone. This combination allows deciphering the significance of the calculated radiometric ages in terms of metamorphic conditions. Results show that the Afyon Zone and the Ören Unit represent a latest Cretaceous high-pressure metamorphic belt, and the Kurudere-Nebiler Unit was affected by subduction-related metamorphism around 45 Ma and cooled down after collision-related metamorphism around 26 Ma. The results provided in the present thesis and from the literature allow better understanding continental amalgamation in Western Anatolia. It is shown that at least two distinct oceanic branches, whereas only one was previously considered, have closed during continuous north-dipping subduction between 92 and 45 Ma. Between 85-80 and 70-65 Ma, a narrow continental domain (including the Afyon Zone) was buried into a subduction zone within the northern oceanic strand. Parts of the subducted continent crust were exhumed while the upper oceanic plate was transported southwards. Subduction of underlying lithosphere persisted, leading to the closure of the southern oceanic branch and to subduct the front of a second continental domain (including the Kurudere-Nebiler Unit). This followed by a continental collisional stage characterized by the cease of subduction, crustal thicknening and the detachment of the subducting oceanic slab from the accreted continent lithosphere. The present study supports that in the late Mesozoic the East Mediterranean realm had a complex tectonic configuration similar to present Southeast Asia or the Caribbean, with multiple, coexisting oceanic basins, microcontinents and subduction zones.
Coastal uplift and tsunami effects associated to the 2010 M(w)8.8 Maule earthquake in Central Chile
(2011)
On February 27, 2010 at 03:34:08 AM an M(w)8.8 earthquake, with epicenter located off Cobquecura (73.24 degrees W; 36.29 degrees S), severely hit Central Chile. The tsunami waves that followed this event affected the coastal regions between the cities of Valparaiso and Valdivia, with minor effects as far as Coquimbo. The earthquake occurred along the subduction of the Nazca oceanic plate beneath the South American plate. Coseismic coastal uplift was estimated through observations of bleached lithothamnioids crustose coralline algae, which were exposed after the mainshock between 34.13 degrees S and 38.34 degrees S, suggesting the latitudinal distribution of the earthquake rupture. The measured coastal uplift values varied between 240 +/- 20 cm at sites closer to the trench along the western coast of the Arauco peninsula and 15 +/- 10 cm at sites located farther east. A maximum value of 260 +/- 50 cm was observed at the western coast of Santa Maria Island, which is similar to the reported uplift associated with the 1835 earthquake at Concepcion. Land subsidence values on the order of 0.5 m to 1 m evidenced a change in polarity and position of the coseismic hinge at 110-120 km from the trench. In four sites along the coast we observed a close match between coastal uplift values deduced from bleached lithothamnioids algae and GPS measurements. According to field observations tsunami heights reached ea. 14 m in the coastal area of the Maule Region immediately north of the epicenter, and diminished progressively northwards to 4-2 m near Valparaiso. Along the coast of Cobquecura, tsunami height values were inferior to 2-4 m. More variable tsunami heights of 6-8 m were measured at Dichato-Talcahuano and Tirua-Puerto Saavedra, in the Biobio and Arauco regions, respectively, to the south of the epicenter. According to eyewitnesses, the tsunami reached the coast between 12 to 20 and 30 to 45 minutes in areas located closer and faraway from the earthquake rupture zone, respectively. Destructive tsunami waves arrived also between 2.5 and 4.5 hours after the mainshock, especially along the coast of the Biobio and Arauco regions. The tsunami effects were highly variable along the coast, as a result of geomorphological and bathymetric local conditions, besides potential complexities induced by the main shock.
In this study we investigated the effect of different land use options (wildlife versus livestock) on species richness of plants and reptiles in the protected Kgalagadi Transfrontier Park (KTP) versus adjacent non-protected farmland within the same savanna habitat type (Aoub dune veld) in the southern Kalahari, South Africa. Our results show that both plant and reptile species richness as well as plant cover and reptile abundance was significantly higher in the protected KTP than in the non-protected farmland. The higher proportion of shrub but lower proportions of perennial grass cover, herb cover, and herb species richness in the farmland can be explained by higher stocking rates and the differences in feeding behaviour between native wild ungulates (e.g. Antidorcas marsupialis, Oryx gazella) and livestock (mainly sheep). The reptile's prey availability and microhabitats (perennial grass tussocks and rodent burrows) for thermoregulation and protection against predators were significantly lower in the farmland. To conclude, our results clearly show that long term effects of different land use options (wildlife in protected KTP versus extensive livestock production in the non-protected farmland) even within the same habitat type have led to significant changes in vegetation composition, availability of microhabitat structures and in the reptile community.
Complex layered deformation within the Aegean crust and mantle revealed by seismic anisotropy
(2011)
Continental lithosphere can undergo pervasive internal deformation, often distributed over broad zones near plate boundaries. However, because of the paucity of observational constraints on three-dimensional movement at depth, patterns of flow within the lithosphere remain uncertain. Endmember models for lithospheric flow invoke deformation localized on faults or deep shear zones or, alternatively, diffuse, viscous-fluid-like flow. Here we determine seismic Rayleigh-wave anisotropy in the crust and mantle of the Aegean region, an archetypal example of continental deformation. Our data reveal a complex, depth-dependent flow pattern within the extending lithosphere. Beneath the northern Aegean Sea, fast shear wave propagation is in a North-South direction within the mantle lithosphere, parallel to the extensional component of the current strain rate field. In the south-central Aegean, where deformation is weak at present, anisotropic fabric in the lower crust runs parallel to the direction of palaeo-extension in the Miocene. The close match of orientations of regional-scale anisotropic fabric and the directions of extension during the last significant episodes of deformation implies that at least a large part of the extension in the Aegean has been taken up by distributed viscous flow in the lower crust and lithospheric mantle.
Classical methods to analyze the surface composition of atmosphereless planetary objects from an orbiter are IR and gamma ray spectroscopy and neutron backscatter measurements. The idea to analyze surface properties with an in-situ instrument has been proposed by Johnson et al. (1998). There, it was suggested to analyze Europa's thin atmosphere with an ion and neutral gas spectrometer. Since the atmospheric components are released by sputtering of the moon's surface, they provide a link to surface composition. Here we present an improved, complementary method to analyze rocky or icy dust particles as samples of planetary objects from which they were ejected. Such particles, generated by the ambient meteoroid bombardment that erodes the surface, are naturally present on all atmosphereless moons and planets. The planetary bodies are enshrouded in clouds of ballistic dust particles, which are characteristic samples of their surfaces. In situ mass spectroscopic analysis of these dust particles impacting onto a detector of an orbiting spacecraft reveals their composition. Recent instrumental developments and tests allow the chemical characterization of ice and dust particles encountered at speeds as low as 1 km/s and an accurate reconstruction of their trajectories. Depending on the sampling altitude, a dust trajectory sensor can trace back the origin of each analyzed grain with about 10 km accuracy at the surface. Since the detection rates are of the order of thousand per orbit, a spatially resolved mapping of the surface composition can be achieved. Certain bodies (e.g., Europa) with particularly dense dust clouds, could provide impact statistics that allow for compositional mapping even on single flybys. Dust impact velocities are in general sufficiently high at orbiters about planetary objects with a radius > 1000 km and with only a thin or no atmosphere. In this work we focus on the scientific benefit of a dust spectrometer on a spacecraft orbiting Earth's Moon as well as Jupiter's Galilean satellites. This 'dust spectrometer' approach provides key chemical and isotopic constraints for varying provinces or geological formations on the surfaces, leading to better understanding of the body's geological evolution.
While several empirical and theoretical studies have clearly shown the negative effects of climate or landscape changes on population and species survival only few of them addressed combined and correlated consequences of these key environmental drivers. This also includes positive landscape changes such as active habitat management and restoration to buffer the negative effects of deteriorating climatic conditions. In this study, we apply a conceptual spatial modelling approach based on functional types to explore the effects of both positive and negative correlations between changes in habitat and climate conditions on the survival of spatially structured populations. We test the effect of different climate and landscape change scenarios on four different functional types that represent a broad spectrum of species characterised by their landscape level carrying capacity, the local population turnover rates at the patch level (K-strategies vs. r-strategies) and dispersal characterstics. As expected, simulation results show that correlated landscape and climatic changes can accelerate (in case of habitat loss or degradation) or slow down (in case of habitat gain or improvement) regional species extinction. However, the strength of the combined changes depends on local turnover at the patch level, the overall landscape capacity of the species, and its specific dispersal characteristics. Under all scenarios of correlated changes in habitat and climate conditions we found the highest sensitivity for functional types representing species with a low landscape capacity but a high population growth rate and a strong density regulation causing a high turnover at the local patch level.
The relative importance of habitat loss or habitat degradation, in combination with climate deterioration, differed among the functional types. However, an increase in regional capacity revealed a similar response pattern: For all types, habitat improvement led to higher survival times than habitat gain, i.e. the establishment of new habitat patches. This suggests that improving local habitat quality at a regional scale is a more promising conservation strategy under climate change than implementing new habitat patches. This conceptual modelling study provides a general framework to better understand and support the management of populations prone to complex environmental changes.
Continent-ocean-transition across a trans-tensional margin segment: off Bear Island, Barents Sea
(2011)
P>A 410 km long Ocean Bottom Seismometer profile spanning from the Bear Island, Barents Sea to oceanic crust formed along the Mohns Ridge has been modelled by use of ray-tracing with regard to observed P-waves. The northeastern part of the model represents typical continental crust, thinned from ca. 30 km thickness beneath the Bear Island to ca. 13 km within the Continent-Ocean-Transition. Between the Hornsund FZ and the Kn circle divide legga Fault, a 3-4 km thick sedimentary basin, dominantly of Permian/Carboniferous age, is modelled beneath the ca. 1.5 km thick layer of volcanics (Vestbakken Volcanic Province). The P-wave velocity in the 3-4 km thick lowermost continental crust is significantly higher than normal (ca. 7.5 km s-1). We interpret this layer as a mixture of mafic intrusions and continental crystalline blocks, dominantly related to the Paleocene-Early Eocene rifting event. The crystalline portion of the crust within the south-western part of the COT consists of a ca. 30 km wide and ca. 6 km thick high-velocity (7.3 km s-1) body. We interpret the body as a ridge of serpentinized peridotites. The magmatic portion of the ocean crust accreted along the Knipovich Ridge from continental break-up at ca. 35 Ma until ca. 20 Ma is 3-5 km thicker than normal. We interpret the increased magmatism as a passive response to the bending of this southernmost part of the Knipovich Ridge. The thickness of the magmatic portion of the crust formed along the Mohns Ridge at ca. 20 Ma decreases to ca. 3 km, which is normal for ultra slow spreading ridges.
Large-scale soy agriculture in the southern Brazilian Amazon now rivals deforestation for pasture as the region's predominant form of land use change. Such landscape-level change can have substantial consequences for local and regional hydrology, but these effects remain relatively unstudied in this ecologically and economically important region. We examined how the conversion to soy agriculture influences water balances and stormflows using stream discharge (water yields) and the timing of discharge (stream hydrographs) in small (2.5-13.5 km2) forested and soy headwater watersheds in the Upper Xingu Watershed in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. We monitored water yield for 1 year in three forested and four soy watersheds. Mean daily water yields were approximately four times higher in soy than forested watersheds, and soy watersheds showed greater seasonal variability in discharge. The contribution of stormflows to annual streamflow in all streams was low (< 13% of annual streamflow), and the contribution of stormflow to streamflow did not differ between land uses. If the increases in water yield observed in this study are typical, landscape-scale conversion to soy substantially alters water-balance, potentially altering the regional hydrology over large areas of the southern Amazon.
The seismicity pattern along the San Andreas fault near Parkfield and Cholame, California, varies distinctly over a length of only fifty kilometres. Within the brittle crust, the presence of frictionally weak minerals, fault-weakening high fluid pressures and chemical weakening are considered possible causes of an anomalously weak fault northwest of Parkfield(1-4). Non-volcanic tremor from lower-crustal and upper-mantle depths(5-7) is most pronounced about thirty kilometres southeast of Parkfield and is thought to be associated with high pore-fluid pressures at depth(8). Here we present geophysical evidence of fluids migrating into the creeping section of the San Andreas fault that seem to originate in the region of the uppermost mantle that also stimulates tremor, and evidence that along-strike variations in tremor activity and amplitude are related to strength variations in the lower crust and upper mantle. Interconnected fluids can explain a deep zone of anomalously low electrical resistivity that has been imaged by magnetotelluric data southwest of the Parkfield-Cholame segment. Near Cholame, where fluids seem to be trapped below a high-resistivity cap, tremor concentrates adjacent to the inferred fluids within a mechanically strong zone of high resistivity. By contrast, sub-vertical zones of low resistivity breach the entire crust near the drill hole of the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth, northwest of Parkfield, and imply pathways for deep fluids into the eastern fault block, coincident with a mechanically weak crust and the lower tremor amplitudes in the lower crust. Fluid influx to the fault system is consistent with hypotheses of fault-weakening high fluid pressures in the brittle crust.
The Dead Sea Transform (DST) is a major left-lateral strike-slip fault that accommodates the relative motion between the African and Arabian plates, connecting a region of extension in the Red Sea to the Taurus collision zone in Turkey over a length of about 1100 km. The Dead Sea Basin (DSB) is one of the largest basins along the DST. The DSB is a morphotectonic depression along the DST, divided into a northern and a southern sub-basin, separated by the Lisan salt diapir. We report on a receiver function study of the crust within the multidisciplinary geophysical project, DEad Sea Integrated REsearch (DESIRE), to study the crustal structure of the DSB. A temporary seismic network was operated on both sides of the DSB between 2006 October and 2008 April. The aperture of the network is approximately 60 km in the E-W direction crossing the DSB on the Lisan peninsula and about 100 km in the N-S direction. Analysis of receiver functions from the DESIRE temporary network indicates that Moho depths vary between 30 and 38 km beneath the area. These Moho depth estimates are consistent with results of near-vertical incidence and wide-angle controlled-source techniques. Receiver functions reveal an additional discontinuity in the lower crust, but only in the DSB and west of it. This leads to the conclusion that the internal crustal structure east and west of the DSB is different at the present-day. However, if the 107 km left-lateral movement along the DST is taken into account, then the region beneath the DESIRE array where no lower crustal discontinuity is observed would have lain about 18 Ma ago immediately adjacent to the region under the previous DESERT array west of the DST where no lower crustal discontinuity is recognized.
Analyses of radiogenic neodymium (Nd), strontium (Sr), and lead (Pb) isotope compositions of clay-sized detrital sediments allow detailed tracing of source areas of sediment supply and present and past transport of particles by water masses in the eastern Indian Ocean. Isotope signatures in surface sediments range from -21.5 (epsilon Nd), 0.8299 ((87)Sr/(86S)r), and 19.89 ((206)Pb/(204)Pb) off northwest Australia to + 0.7 (epsilon Nd), 0.7069 ((87)Sr/(86)Sr), and 17.44 ((206)Pb/(204)Pb) southwest of Java. The radiogenic isotope signatures primarily reflect petrographic characteristics of the surrounding continental bedrocks but are also influenced by weathering-induced grain size effects of Pb and Sr isotope systems with superimposed features that are caused by current transport of clay-sized particles, as evidenced off Australia where a peculiar isotopic signature characterizes sediments underlying the southward flowing Leeuwin Current and the northward flowing West Australian Current (WAC). Gravity core FR10/95-GC17 off west Australia recorded a major isotopic change from Last Glacial Maximum values of -10 (epsilon Nd), 0.745 ((87S)r/(86)Sr), and 18.8 ((206)Pb/(204)Pb) to Holocene values of -22 (epsilon Nd), 0.8 ((87)Sr/(86)Sr), and 19.3 ((206)Pb/(204)Pb), which documents major climatically driven changes of the WAC and in local riverine particle supply from Australia during the past 20 kyr. In contrast, gravity core FR10/95-GC5 located below the present-day pathway of the Indonesian throughflow (ITF) shows a much smaller isotopic variability, indicating a relatively stable ITF hydrography over most of the past 92 kyr. Only the surface sediments differ significantly in their isotopic composition, indicating substantial changes in erosional sources attributed to a change of the current regime during the past 5 kyr.
Species distribution models are an important tool to predict the impact of global change on species distributional ranges and community assemblages. Although considerable progress has been made in the statistical modeling during the last decade, many approaches still ignore important features of species distributions, such as nonlinearity and interactions between predictors, spatial autocorrelation, and nonstationarity, or at most incorporate only some of these features. Ecologists, however, require a modeling framework that simultaneously addresses all these features flexibly and consistently. Here we describe such an approach that allows the estimation of the global effects of environmental variables in addition to local components dealing with spatiotemporal autocorrelation as well as nonstationary effects. The local components can be used to infer unknown spatiotemporal processes; the global component describes how the species is influenced by the environment and can be used for predictions, allowing the fitting of many well-known regression relationships, ranging from simple linear models to complex decision trees or from additive models to models inspired by machine learning procedures. The reliability of spatiotemporal predictions can be qualitatively predicted by separately evaluating the importance of local and global effects. We demonstrate the potential of the new approach by modeling the breeding distribution of the Red Kite (Milvus milvus), a bird of prey occurring predominantly in Western Europe, based on presence/absence data from two mapping campaigns using grids of 40 km 2 in Bavaria. The global component of the model selected seven environmental variables extracted from the CORINE and WorldClim databases to predict Red Kite breeding. The effect of altitude was found to be nonstationary in space, and in addition, the data were spatially autocorrelated, which suggests that a species distribution model that does not allow for spatially varying effects and spatial autocorrelation would have ignored important processes determining the distribution of Red Kite breeding across Bavaria. Thus, predictions from standard species distribution models that do not allow for real-world complexities may be considerably erroneous. Our analysis of Red Kite breeding exemplifies the potential of the innovative approach for species distribution models. The method is also applicable to modeling count data.
Quantification of total cell abundance is one of the most fundamental parameters in the exploration of subsurface life. Despite all recent advances in molecular techniques, this parameter is usually determined by fluorescence microscopy. In order to obtain reliable and reproducible results, it is important not just to focus on the actual cell enumeration but also to consider the entire chain of processing. Starting with the retrieval of the sample, over subsampling and sample processing to the final step of fluorescence microscopy, there are many potential sources of contamination that have to be assessed and, if possible, avoided. Because some degree of sample contamination will always occur, it is necessary to employ some form of contamination control. Different tracers are available, each one with its specific advantages and drawbacks. In many cases, the problems arise not after the sample has arrived in a well-equipped laboratory with highly trained personnel, but much earlier at the drill site or in a field camp. In this review, I discuss the different aspects of cell enumeration in subsurface sediment, evaluating every step in the long process chain.
The pressures required for diamond and coesite formation far exceed conditions reached by even the deepest present-day orogenic crustal roots. Therefore the occurrence of metamorphosed continental crust containing these minerals requires processes other than crustal thickening to have operated in the past. Here we report the first in situ finding of diamond and coesite, characterized by micro-Raman spectroscopy, in high-pressure granulites otherwise indistinguishable from granulites found associated with garnet peridotite throughout the European Variscides. Our discovery confirms the provenance of Europe's first reliable diamond, the "Bohemian diamond," found in A.D. 1870, and also represents the first robust evidence for ultrahigh-pressure conditions in a major Variscan crustal rock type. A process of deep continental subduction is required to explain the metamorphic pressures and the granulite-garnet peridotite association, and thus tectonometamorphic models for these rocks involving a deep orogenic crustal root need to be significantly modified.
Numerous pollen records across the upper Tibetan Plateau indicate that in the early part of the mid-Holocene, Kobresia-rich high-alpine meadows invaded areas formerly dominated by alpine steppe vegetation rich in Artemisia. We examine climate, land-use, and CO2 concentration changes as potential drivers for this marked vegetation change. The climatic implications of these vegetational shifts are explored by applying a newly developed pollen-based moisture-balance transfer-function to fossil pollen spectra from Koucha Lake on the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau (34.0 degrees N; 97.2 degrees E; 4540 m a.s.l.) and Xuguo Lake on the central Tibetan Plateau (31.97 degrees N; 90.3 degrees E; 4595 m a.s.l.), both located in the meadow-steppe transition zone. Reconstructed moisture-balances were markedly reduced (by similar to 150-180 mm) during the early mid-Holocene compared to the late-Holocene. These findings contradict most other records from the Indian monsoonal realm and also most non-pollen records from the Tibetan Plateau that indicate a rather wet early- and mid-Holocene. The extent and timing of anthropogenic land-use involving grazing by large herbivores on the upper Tibetan Plateau and its possible impacts on high-alpine vegetation are still mostly unknown due to the lack of relevant archaeological evidence. Arguments against a mainly anthropogenic origin of Kobresia high-alpine meadows are the discovery of the widespread expansion of obviously 'natural' Kobresia meadows on the south-eastern Tibetan Plateau during the Lateglacial period indicating the natural origin of this vegetation type and the lack of any concurrence between modern human-driven vegetation shifts and the mid-Holocene compositional changes. Vegetation types are known to respond to atmospheric CO2 concentration changes, at least on glacial-interglacial scales. This assumption is confirmed by our sensitivity study where we model Tibetan vegetation at different CO2 concentrations of 375 (present-day), 260 (early Holocene), and 650 ppm (future scenario) using the BIOME4 global vegetation model. Previous experimental studies confirm that vegetation growing on dry and high sites is particularly sensitive to CO2 changes. Here we propose that the replacement of drought-resistant alpine steppes (that are well adapted to low CO2 concentrations) by mesic Kobresia meadows can, at least, be partly interpreted as a response to the increase of CO2 concentration since 7000 years ago due to fertilization and water-saving effects. Our hypothesis is corroborated by former CO2 fertilization experiments performed on various dry grasslands and by the strong recent expansion of high-alpine meadows documented by remote sensing studies in response to recent CO2 increases.
Dryland vulnerability : typical patterns and dynamics in support of vulnerability reduction efforts
(2011)
The pronounced constraints on ecosystem functioning and human livelihoods in drylands are frequently exacerbated by natural and socio-economic stresses, including weather extremes and inequitable trade conditions. Therefore, a better understanding of the relation between these stresses and the socio-ecological systems is important for advancing dryland development. The concept of vulnerability as applied in this dissertation describes this relation as encompassing the exposure to climate, market and other stresses as well as the sensitivity of the systems to these stresses and their capacity to adapt. With regard to the interest in improving environmental and living conditions in drylands, this dissertation aims at a meaningful generalisation of heterogeneous vulnerability situations. A pattern recognition approach based on clustering revealed typical vulnerability-creating mechanisms at global and local scales. One study presents the first analysis of dryland vulnerability with global coverage at a sub-national resolution. The cluster analysis resulted in seven typical patterns of vulnerability according to quantitative indication of poverty, water stress, soil degradation, natural agro-constraints and isolation. Independent case studies served to validate the identified patterns and to prove the transferability of vulnerability-reducing approaches. Due to their worldwide coverage, the global results allow the evaluation of a specific system’s vulnerability in its wider context, even in poorly-documented areas. Moreover, climate vulnerability of smallholders was investigated with regard to their food security in the Peruvian Altiplano. Four typical groups of households were identified in this local dryland context using indicators for harvest failure risk, agricultural resources, education and non-agricultural income. An elaborate validation relying on independently acquired information demonstrated the clear correlation between weather-related damages and the identified clusters. It also showed that household-specific causes of vulnerability were consistent with the mechanisms implied by the corresponding patterns. The synthesis of the local study provides valuable insights into the tailoring of interventions that reflect the heterogeneity within the social group of smallholders. The conditions necessary to identify typical vulnerability patterns were summarised in five methodological steps. They aim to motivate and to facilitate the application of the selected pattern recognition approach in future vulnerability analyses. The five steps outline the elicitation of relevant cause-effect hypotheses and the quantitative indication of mechanisms as well as an evaluation of robustness, a validation and a ranking of the identified patterns. The precise definition of the hypotheses is essential to appropriately quantify the basic processes as well as to consistently interpret, validate and rank the clusters. In particular, the five steps reflect scale-dependent opportunities, such as the outcome-oriented aspect of validation in the local study. Furthermore, the clusters identified in Northeast Brazil were assessed in the light of important endogenous processes in the smallholder systems which dominate this region. In order to capture these processes, a qualitative dynamic model was developed using generalised rules of labour allocation, yield extraction, budget constitution and the dynamics of natural and technological resources. The model resulted in a cyclic trajectory encompassing four states with differing degree of criticality. The joint assessment revealed aggravating conditions in major parts of the study region due to the overuse of natural resources and the potential for impoverishment. The changes in vulnerability-creating mechanisms identified in Northeast Brazil are well-suited to informing local adjustments to large-scale intervention programmes, such as “Avança Brasil”. Overall, the categorisation of a limited number of typical patterns and dynamics presents an efficient approach to improving our understanding of dryland vulnerability. Appropriate decision-making for sustainable dryland development through vulnerability reduction can be significantly enhanced by pattern-specific entry points combined with insights into changing hotspots of vulnerability and the transferability of successful adaptation strategies.
Earthquake faults interact with each other in many different ways and hence earthquakes cannot be treated as individual independent events. Although earthquake interactions generally lead to a complex evolution of the crustal stress field, it does not necessarily mean that the earthquake occurrence becomes random and completely unpredictable. In particular, the interplay between earthquakes can rather explain the occurrence of pronounced characteristics such as periods of accelerated and depressed seismicity (seismic quiescence) as well as spatiotemporal earthquake clustering (swarms and aftershock sequences). Ignoring the time-dependence of the process by looking at time-averaged values – as largely done in standard procedures of seismic hazard assessment – can thus lead to erroneous estimations not only of the activity level of future earthquakes but also of their spatial distribution. Therefore, it exists an urgent need for applicable time-dependent models. In my work, I aimed at better understanding and characterization of the earthquake interactions in order to improve seismic hazard estimations. For this purpose, I studied seismicity patterns on spatial scales ranging from hydraulic fracture experiments (meter to kilometer) to fault system size (hundreds of kilometers), while the temporal scale of interest varied from the immediate aftershock activity (minutes to months) to seismic cycles (tens to thousands of years). My studies revealed a number of new characteristics of fluid-induced and stress-triggered earthquake clustering as well as precursory phenomena in earthquake cycles. Data analysis of earthquake and deformation data were accompanied by statistical and physics-based model simulations which allow a better understanding of the role of structural heterogeneities, stress changes, afterslip and fluid flow. Finally, new strategies and methods have been developed and tested which help to improve seismic hazard estimations by taking the time-dependence of the earthquake process appropriately into account.
Motivation | Societal and economic needs of East Africa rely entirely on the availability of water, which is governed by the regular onset and retreat of the rainy seasons. Fluctuations in the amounts of rainfall has tremendous impact causing widespread famine, disease outbreaks and human migrations. Efforts towards high resolution forecasting of seasonal precipitation and hydrological systems are therefore needed, which requires high frequency short to long-term analyses of available climate data that I am going to present in this doctoral thesis by three different studies. 15,000 years - Suguta Valley | The main study of this thesis concentrated on the understanding of humidity changes within the last African Humid Period (AHP, 14.8-5.5 ka BP). The nature and causes of intensity variations of the West-African (WAM) and Indian Summer monsoons (ISM) during the AHP, especially their exact influence on regional climate relative to each other, is currently intensely debated. Here, I present a high-resolution multiproxy lake-level record spanning the AHP from the remote Suguta Valley in the northern Kenya Rift, located between the WAM and ISM domains. The presently desiccated valley was during the AHP filled by a 300 m deep and 2200 km2 large palaeo-lake due to an increase in precipitation of only 26%. The record explains the synchronous onset of large lakes in the East African Rift System (EARS) with the longitudinal shift of the Congo Air Boundary (CAB) over the East African and Ethiopian Plateaus, as the direct consequence of an enhanced atmospheric pressure gradient between East-Africa and India due to a precessional-forced northern hemisphere insolation maximum. Pronounced, and abrupt lake level fluctuations during the generally wet AHP are explained by small-scale solar irradiation changes weakening this pressure gradient atmospheric moisture availability preventing the CAB from reaching the study area. Instead, the termination of the AHP occurred, in a non-linear manner due to a change towards an equatorial insolation maximum ca. 6.5 ka ago extending the AHP over Ethiopia and West-Africa. 200 years - Lake Naivasha | The second part of the thesis focused on the analysis of a 200 year-old sediment core from Lake Naivasha in the Central Kenya Rift, one of the very few present freshwater lakes in East Africa. The results revealed and confirmed, that the appliance of proxy records for palaeo-climate reconstruction for the last 100 years within a time of increasing industrialisation and therefore human impact to the proxy-record containing sites are broadly limited. Since the middle of the 20th century, intense anthropogenic activity around Lake Naivasha has led to cultural eutrophication, which has overprinted the influence of natural climate variation to the lake usually inferred from proxy records such as diatoms, transfer-functions, geochemical and sedimentological analysis as used in this study. The results clarify the need for proxy records from remote unsettled areas to contribute with pristine data sets to current debates about anthropologic induced global warming since the past 100 years. 14 years - East African Rift | In order to avoid human influenced data sets and validate spatial and temporal heterogeneities of proxy-records from East Africa, the third part of the thesis therefore concentrated on the most recent past 14 years (1996-2010) detecting climate variability by using remotely sensed rainfall data. The advancement in the spatial coverage and temporal resolutions of rainfall data allow a better understanding of influencing climate mechanisms and help to better interpret proxy-records from the EARS in order to reconstruct past climate conditions. The study focuses on the dynamics of intraseasonal rainfall distribution within catchments of eleven lake basins in the EARS that are often used for palaeo-climate studies. We discovered that rainfall in adjacent basins exhibits high complexities in the magnitudes of intraseasonal variability, biennial to triennial precipitation patterns and even are not necessarily correlated often showing opposite trends. The variability among the watersheds is driven by the complex interaction of topography, in particular the shape, length and elevation of the catchment and its relative location to the East African Rift System and predominant influence of the ITCZ or CAB, whose locations and intensities are dependent on the strength of low pressure cells over India, SST variations in the Atlantic, Pacific or Indian Ocean, QBO phases and the 11-year solar cycle. Among all seasons we observed, January-September is the season of highest and most complex rainfall variability, especially for the East African Plateau basins, most likely due to the irregular penetration and sensitivity of the CAB.
The impact of global warming on human water resources is attracting increasing attention. No other region in this world is so strongly affected by changes in water supply than the tropics. Especially in Africa, the availability and access to water is more crucial to existence (basic livelihoods and economic growth) than anywhere else on Earth. In East Africa, rainfall is mainly influenced by the migration of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with more rain and floods during El Niño and severe droughts during La Niña. The forecasting of East African rainfall in a warming world requires a better understanding of the response of ENSO-driven variability to mean climate. Unfortunately, existing meteorological data sets are too short or incomplete to establish a precise evaluation of future climate. From Lake Challa near Mount Kilimanjaro, we report records from a laminated lake sediment core spanning the last 25,000 years. Analyzing a monthly cleared sediment trap confirms the annual origin of the laminations and demonstrates that the varve-thicknesses are strongly linked to the duration and strength of the windy season. Given the modern control of seasonal ITCZ location on wind and rain in this region and the inverse relation between the two, thicker varves represent windier and thus drier years. El Niño (La Niña) events are associated with wetter (drier) conditions in east Africa and decreased (increased) surface wind speeds. Based on this fact, the thickness of the varves can be used as a tool to reconstruct a) annual rainfall b) wind season strength, and c) ENSO variability. Within this thesis, I found evidence for centennialscale changes in ENSO-related rainfall variability during the last three millennia, abrupt changes in variability during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, and an overall reduction in East African rainfall and its variability during the Last Glacial period. Climate model simulations support forward extrapolation from these lake-sediment data, indicating that a future Indian Ocean warming will enhance East Africa’s hydrological cycle and its interannual variability in rainfall. Furthermore, I compared geochemical analyses from the sediment trap samples with a broad range of limnological, meteorological, and geological parameters to characterize the impact of sedimentation processes from the in-situ rocks to the deposited sediments. As a result an excellent calibration for existing μXRF data from Lake Challa over the entire 25,000 year long profile was provided. The climate development during the last 25,000 years as reconstructed from the Lake Challa sediments is in good agreement with other studies and highlights the complex interactions between long-term orbital forcing, atmosphere, ocean and land surface conditions. My findings help to understand how abrupt climate changes occur and how these changes correlate with climate changes elsewhere on Earth.
Substantial investment in climate change research has led to dire predictions of the impacts and risks to biodiversity. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment report(1) cites 28,586 studies demonstrating significant biological changes in terrestrial systems(2). Already high extinction rates, driven primarily by habitat loss, are predicted to increase under climate change(3-6). Yet there is little specific advice or precedent in the literature to guide climate adaptation investment for conserving biodiversity within realistic economic constraints(7). Here we present a systematic ecological and economic analysis of a climate adaptation problem in one of the world's most species-rich and threatened ecosystems: the South African fynbos. We discover a counterintuitive optimal investment strategy that switches twice between options as the available adaptation budget increases. We demonstrate that optimal investment is nonlinearly dependent on available resources, making the choice of how much to invest as important as determining where to invest and what actions to take. Our study emphasizes the importance of a sound analytical framework for prioritizing adaptation investments(4). Integrating ecological predictions in an economic decision framework will help support complex choices between adaptation options under severe uncertainty. Our prioritization method can be applied at any scale to minimize species loss and to evaluate the robustness of decisions to uncertainty about key assumptions.
In present-day land and marine controlled-source electromagnetic (CSEM) surveys, electromagnetic fields are commonly generated using wires that are hundreds of metres long. Nevertheless, simulations of CSEM data often approximate these sources as point dipoles. Although this is justified for sufficiently large source-receiver distances, many real surveys include frequencies and distances at which the dipole approximation is inaccurate. For 1D layered media, electromagnetic (EM) fields for point dipole sources can be computed using well-known quasi-analytical solutions and fields for sources of finite length can be synthesized by superposing point dipole fields. However, the calculation of numerous point dipole fields is computationally expensive, requiring a large number of numerical integral evaluations. We combine a more efficient representation of finite-length sources in terms of components related to the wire and its end points with very general expressions for EM fields in 1D layered media. We thus obtain a formulation that requires fewer numerical integrations than the superposition of dipole fields, permits source and receiver placement at any depth within the layer stack and can also easily be integrated into 3D modelling algorithms. Complex source geometries, such as wires bent due to surface obstructions, can be simulated by segmenting the wire and computing the responses for each segment separately. We first describe our finite-length wire expressions and then present 1D and 3D examples of EM fields due to finite-length sources for typical land and marine survey geometries and discuss differences to point dipole fields.
In order to provide probabilistic projections of the future evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), we calibrated a simple Stommel-type box model to emulate the output of fully coupled three-dimensional atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Based on this calibration to idealised global warming scenarios with and without interactive atmosphere-ocean fluxes and freshwater perturbation simulations, we project the future evolution of the AMOC mean strength within the covered calibration range for the lower two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) until 2100 obtained from the reduced complexity carbon cycle-climate model MAGICC 6. For RCP3-PD with a global mean temperature median below 1.0 degrees C warming relative to the year 2000, we project an ensemble median weakening of up to 11% compared to 22% under RCP4.5 with a warming median up to 1.9 degrees C over the 21st century. Additional Greenland meltwater of 10 and 20 cm of global sea-level rise equivalent further weakens the AMOC by about 4.5 and 10 %, respectively. By combining our outcome with a multi-model sea-level rise study we project a dynamic sea-level rise along the New York City coastline of 4 cm for the RCP3-PD and of 8 cm for the RCP4.5 scenario over the 21st century. We estimate the total steric and dynamic sea-level rise for New York City to be about 24 cm until 2100 for the RCP3-PD scenario, which can hold as a lower bound for sea-level rise projections in this region, as it does not include ice sheet and mountain glacier contributions.
Northwest Europe's largest heather-dominated sandy habitats are located in the nature reserve Luneburger Heide, Germany. Yet, even these appear to be losing their ability to support some of their stenotopic species such as the ladybird spider, Eresus kollari Rossi 1846, and are thus becoming increasingly important for the preservation of these species. The habitat requirements of this endangered spider species were investigated in order to obtain data that will help stabilize the last remnants of the species' population in northwest Germany. Several heathland habitats were surveyed by pitfall trapping during the mate-search period of the males. Two statistical methods were applied: logistic regression and boosted regression trees (BRT). Both methods showed that three habitat variables are of prime relevance in predicting the occurrence of E. kollari: a) thickness of the organic layer (a negative effect), b) soil temperature at a depth of 10 cm, and c) Calluna cover in the herb layer (both have positive effect). Our results show that choppering (removing above-ground biomass and most of O-layer) and burning are likely appropriate heathland management measures for the conservation of E. kollari. Such measures improve the species' habitat quality by creating a heterogenic (small-scaled) heathland structure with suitable microhabitats. As Calluna heathlands show a clear senescence of the dominant heather, it is essential that those habitat patches be conserved. Further measures, such as transfer experiments, are recommended.
Characterizing the local site response in large cities is an important step towards seismic hazard assessment. To this regard, single station seismic noise measurements were carried out at 146 sites in the northern part of Santiago de Chile. This extensive survey allowed the fundamental resonance frequency of the sedimentary cover, derived from horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) spectral ratios, to be mapped. By inverting the spectral ratios under the constraint of the thickness of the sedimentary cover, known from previous gravimetric measurements, local S-wave velocity profiles have been retrieved. After interpolation between the individual profiles, the resulting high resolution 3D S-wave velocity model allows the entire area, as well as deeper parts of the basin, to be represented in great detail. Since one lithology shows a great scatter in the velocity values only a very general correlation between S-wave velocity in the uppermost 30 m (v(s)(30)) and local geology is found. Local S-wave velocity profiles can serve as a key factor in seismic hazard assessment, since they allow an estimate of the amplification potential of the sedimentary cover. Mapping the intensity distribution of the 27 February 2010 Maule, Chile, event (Mw = 8.8) the results indicate that local amplification of the ground motion might partially explain the damage distribution and encourage the use of the low cost seismic noise techniques for the study of seismic site effects.
In the Himalaya of Chamba, NW India, a major orographic barrier in front of the Greater Himalayan Range extracts a high proportion of the monsoonal rainfall along its southern slopes and effectively shields the orogen interior from moisture-bearing winds. Along a similar to 100-km-long orogen perpendicular transect, 28 new apatite fission track (AFT) and 30 new zircon (U-Th)/He (ZHe) cooling ages reveal marked variations in age distributions and long-term exhumation rates between the humid frontal range and the semi-arid orogen interior. On the southern topographic front, very young, elevation-invariant AFT ages of <4 Ma have been obtained that are concentrated in a similar to 30-km-wide zone; 1-D-thermal modeling suggests a Plio-Pleistocene mean erosion rate of 0.8-1.9 mm yr(-1). In contrast, AFT and ZHe ages within the orogen interior are older (4-9 and 7-18 Ma, respectively), are positively correlated with sample elevation, and yield lower mean erosion rates (0.3-0.9 mm yr(-1)). Protracted low exhumation rates within the orogen interior over the last similar to 15 Myr prevailed contemporaneously with overall humid conditions and an effective erosional regime within the southern Himalaya. This suggests that the frontal Dhauladar Range was sufficiently high during this time to form an orographic barrier, focusing climatically enhanced erosional processes and tectonic deformation there. Thrusting along the two frontal range-bounding thrust, the Main Central Thrust and the Main Boundary Thrusts, was initiated at least similar to 15 Ma ago and has remained localized since then. The lack of evidence for localized uplift farther north indicates either a rather flat decollement with no ramp or the absence of active duplex systems beneath the interior of Chamba. Exhumational variability within Chamba is best explained as the result of continuous thrusting along a major basal decollement, with a flat beneath the slowly exhuming internal compartments and a steep frontal ramp at the rapidly exhuming frontal range. The pattern in Chamba contrasts with what is observed elsewhere along the Himalaya, where exhumation is focused in a zone similar to 150 km north of the orogenic front. In the NW Himalaya, preserved High Himalayan Crystalline nappes and Lesser Himalayan windows alternate on a relatively small scale of <100 km; these alternations are closely correlated with the pattern of exhumation. Although the spatial distribution of high-exhumation zones varies considerably between individual Himalayan sectors, all of these zones are closely correlated with locally higher rock-uplift rates, sharp topographic discontinuities, and focused orographic precipitation, suggesting strong feedbacks between tectonically driven rock uplift, orographically enhanced precipitation, and erosional processes.
Questions: Which are the factors that influence forest and shrubland loss and regeneration and their underlying drivers?
Location: Central Chile, a world biodiversity hotspot.
Methods: Using land-cover data from the years 1975, 1985, 1999 and 2008, we fitted classification trees and multiple logistic regression models to account for the relationship between different trajectories of vegetation change and a range of biophysical and socio-economic factors.
Results: The variables that most consistently showed significant effects on vegetation change across all time-intervals were slope and distance to primary roads. We found that forest and shrubland loss on one side and regeneration on the other often displayed opposite patterns in relation to the different explanatory variables. Deforestation was positively related to distance to primary roads and to distance within forest edges and was favoured by a low insolation and a low slope. In turn, forest regeneration was negatively related to the distance to primary roads and positively to the distance to the nearest forest patch, insolation and slope. Shrubland loss was positively influenced by slope and distance to cities and primary roads and negatively influenced by distance to rivers. Conversely, shrubland regeneration was negatively related to slope, distance to cities and distance to primary roads and positively related to distance from existing forest patches and distance to rivers.
Conclusions: This article reveals how biophysical and socioeconomic factors influence vegetation cover change and the underlying social, political and economical drivers. This assessment provides a basis for management decisions, considering the crucial role of perennial vegetation cover for sustaining biodiversity and ecosystem services.
The amount and composition of subduction zone fluids and the effect of fluid-rock interaction at a slab-mantle interface have been constrained by thermodynamic and trace element modelling of partially overprinted blueschist-facies rocks from the Sesia Zone (Western Alps). Deformation-induced differences in fluid flux led to a partial preservation of pristine mineral cores in weakly deformed samples that were used to quantify Li, B, Stand Pb distribution during mineral growth, -breakdown and modification induced by fluid-rock interaction. Our results show that Li and 13 budgets are fluid-controlled, thus acting as tracers for fluid-rock interaction processes, whereas Stand Pb budgets are mainly controlled by the fluid-induced formation of epidote. Our calculations show that fluid-rock interaction caused significant Li and B depletion in the affected rocks due to leaching effects, which in turn can lead to a drastic enrichment of these elements in the percolating fluid. Depending on available fluid-mineral trace element distribution coefficients modelled fluid rock ratios were up to 0.06 in weakly deformed samples and at least 0.5 to 4 in shear zone mylonites. These amounts lead to time integrated fluid fluxes of up to 1.4-10(2) m(3) m(-2) in the weakly deformed rocks and 1-8-10(3) m(3) m(-2) in the mylonites. Combined thermodynamic and trace element models can be used to quantify metamorphic fluid fluxes and the associated element transfer in complex, reacting rock systems and help to better understand commonly observed fluid-induced trace element trends in rocks and minerals from different geodynamic environments.
The Western Alpine Sesia-Lanzo Zone (SLZ) is a sliver of eclogite-facies continental crust exhumed from mantle depths in the hanging wall of a subducted oceanic slab. Eclogite-facies felsic and basic rocks sampled across the internal SLZ show different degrees of retrograde metamorphic overprint associated with fluid influx. The weakly deformed samples preserve relict eclogite-facies mineral assemblages that show partial fluid-induced compositional re-equilibration along grain boundaries, brittle fractures and other fluid pathways. Multiple fluid influx stages are indicated by replacement of primary omphacite by phengite, albitic plagioclase and epidote as well as partial re-equilibration and/or overgrowths in phengite and sodic amphibole, producing characteristic step-like compositional zoning patterns. The observed textures, together with the map-scale distribution of the samples, suggest open-system, pervasive and reactive fluid flux across large rock volumes above the subducted slab. Thermodynamic modelling indicates a minimum amount of fluid of 0 center dot 1-0 center dot 5 wt % interacting with the wall-rocks. Phase relations and reaction textures indicate mobility of K, Ca, Fe and Mg, whereas Al is relatively immobile in these medium-temperature-high-pressure fluids. Furthermore, the thermodynamic models show that recycling of previously fractionated material, such as in the cores of garnet porphyroblasts, largely controls the compositional re-equilibration of the exhumed rock body.
From CDM to REDD+ - what do we know for setting up effective and legitimate carbon governance?
(2011)
This article compares two carbon governance instruments - the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) - to assess lessons from the former for the latter regarding effectiveness and legitimacy of such instruments. The article argues that the CDM has a relatively high degree of output-oriented legitimacy resulting in effectiveness and some input-oriented legitimacy, with few discernible tradeoffs between them. In contrasting this to REDD+, the hypotheses are advanced that (i) output-oriented legitimacy/effectiveness can again be achieved but that (ii) a higher degree of input-oriented legitimacy is necessary for REDD+ and thus also a certain trade-off between the two forms of legitimacy can be expected. This is shown through comparing the technologies and methodologies, economic rationales, political support, regulatory structures, and environmental impacts of both instruments.
Population-level effects of global warming result from concurrent direct and indirect processes. They are typically described by physiologically structured population models (PSPMs). Therefore, inverse modelling offers a tool to identify parameters of individual physiological processes through population-level data analysis, e. g. the temperature dependence of growth from size-frequency data of a field population. Here, we make use of experiments under laboratory conditions, in mesocosms and field monitoring to determine the temperature dependence of growth and mortality of Gammarus pulex. We found an optimum temperature for growth of approximately 17 degrees C and a related temperature coefficient, Q(10), of 1.5 degrees C(-1), irrespective of whether we classically fitted individual growth curves or applied inverse modelling based on PSPMs to laboratory data. From a comparison of underlying data sets we conclude that applying inverse modelling techniques to population-level data results in meaningful response parameters for physiological processes if additional temperature-driven effects, including within-population interaction, can be excluded or determined independently. If this is not the case, parameter estimates describe a cumulative response, e. g. comprising temperature-dependent resource dynamics. Finally, fluctuating temperatures in natural habitats increased the uncertainty in parameter values. Here, PSPM should be applied for virtual monitoring in order to determine a sampling scheme that comprises important dates to reduce parameter uncertainty.
The chemical composition of eclogites, found as boulders in a Tertiary conglomerate from the Guajira Peninsula, Colombia suggests that these rocks are mainly metamorphosed basaltic andesites. They are depleted in LILE elements compared to MORB, have a negative Nb-anomaly and flat to enriched REE patterns, suggesting that their protoliths evolved in a subduction related tectonic setting. They show island-arc affinities and are similar to primitive island-arc rocks described in the Caribbean. The geochemical characteristics are comparable to low-grade greenschists from the nearby Etpana Terrane, which are interpreted as part of a Cretaceous intra-oceanic arc. These data support evidence that the eclogites and the Etpana terrane rocks formed from the same volcano-sedimentary sequence. Part of this sequence was accreted onto the margin and another was incorporated into the subduction channel and metamorphosed at eclogite facies conditions. Ar-40-Ar-39 ages of 79.2 +/- 1.1Ma and 82.2 +/- 2.5Ma determined on white micas, separated from two eclogite samples, are interpreted to be related to the cooling of the main metamorphic event. The formation of a common volcano-sedimentary protolith and subsequent metamorphism of these units record the ongoing Late Cretaceous continental subduction of the South American margin within the Caribbean intra-oceanic arc subduction zone. This gave way to an arc-continent collision between the Caribbean and the South American plates, where this sequence was exhumed after the Campanian.