Erratum: The 'pause' in global warming in historical context: II. Comparing models to observations (Environmental research letters. - Vol 13, (2018) 123007)
- We review the evidence for a putative early 21st-century divergence between global mean surface temperature (GMST) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) projections. We provide a systematic comparison between temperatures and projections using historical versions of GMST products and historical versions of model projections that existed at the times when claims about a divergence were made. The comparisons are conducted with a variety of statistical techniques that correct for problems in previous work, including using continuous trends and a Monte Carlo approach to simulate internal variability. The results show that there is no robust statistical evidence for a divergence between models and observations. The impression of a divergence early in the 21st century was caused by various biases in model interpretation and in the observations, and was unsupported by robust statistics.
Verfasserangaben: | Stephan LewandowskyORCiD, Kevin Cowtan, James S. RisbeyORCiD, Michael E. Mann, Byron A. Steinman, Naomi Oreskes, Stefan RahmstorfORCiDGND |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aafbb7 |
ISSN: | 1748-9326 |
Titel des übergeordneten Werks (Englisch): | Environmental research letters |
Verlag: | IOP Publ. Ltd. |
Verlagsort: | Bristol |
Publikationstyp: | Sonstiges |
Sprache: | Englisch |
Datum der Erstveröffentlichung: | 26.03.2019 |
Erscheinungsjahr: | 2019 |
Datum der Freischaltung: | 10.03.2021 |
Band: | 14 |
Ausgabe: | 4 |
Seitenanzahl: | 2 |
Organisationseinheiten: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Physik und Astronomie |
DDC-Klassifikation: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 52 Astronomie / 520 Astronomie und zugeordnete Wissenschaften |
5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 53 Physik / 530 Physik | |
Peer Review: | Referiert |
Publikationsweg: | Open Access / Gold Open-Access |
DOAJ gelistet | |
Lizenz (Englisch): | Creative Commons - Namensnennung 3.0 Unported |