Spatially explicit models for decision-making in animal conservation and restoration
- Models are useful tools for understanding and predicting ecological patterns and processes. Under ongoing climate and biodiversity change, they can greatly facilitate decision-making in conservation and restoration and help designing adequate management strategies for an uncertain future. Here, we review the use of spatially explicit models for decision support and to identify key gaps in current modelling in conservation and restoration. Of 650 reviewed publications, 217 publications had a clear management application and were included in our quantitative analyses. Overall, modelling studies were biased towards static models (79%), towards the species and population level (80%) and towards conservation (rather than restoration) applications (71%). Correlative niche models were the most widely used model type. Dynamic models as well as the gene-to-individual level and the community-to-ecosystem level were underrepresented, and explicit cost optimisation approaches were only used in 10% of the studies. We present a new model typologyModels are useful tools for understanding and predicting ecological patterns and processes. Under ongoing climate and biodiversity change, they can greatly facilitate decision-making in conservation and restoration and help designing adequate management strategies for an uncertain future. Here, we review the use of spatially explicit models for decision support and to identify key gaps in current modelling in conservation and restoration. Of 650 reviewed publications, 217 publications had a clear management application and were included in our quantitative analyses. Overall, modelling studies were biased towards static models (79%), towards the species and population level (80%) and towards conservation (rather than restoration) applications (71%). Correlative niche models were the most widely used model type. Dynamic models as well as the gene-to-individual level and the community-to-ecosystem level were underrepresented, and explicit cost optimisation approaches were only used in 10% of the studies. We present a new model typology for selecting models for animal conservation and restoration, characterising model types according to organisational levels, biological processes of interest and desired management applications. This typology will help to more closely link models to management goals. Additionally, future efforts need to overcome important challenges related to data integration, model integration and decision-making. We conclude with five key recommendations, suggesting that wider usage of spatially explicit models for decision support can be achieved by 1) developing a toolbox with multiple, easier-to-use methods, 2) improving calibration and validation of dynamic modelling approaches and 3) developing best-practise guidelines for applying these models. Further, more robust decision-making can be achieved by 4) combining multiple modelling approaches to assess uncertainty, and 5) placing models at the core of adaptive management. These efforts must be accompanied by long-term funding for modelling and monitoring, and improved communication between research and practise to ensure optimal conservation and restoration outcomes.…
Author details: | Damaris ZurellORCiDGND, Christian KönigORCiDGND, Anne-Kathleen MalchowORCiDGND, Simon KapitzaORCiD, Greta BocediORCiD, Justin M. J. TravisORCiD, Guillermo FandosORCiDGND |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.05787 |
ISSN: | 1600-0587 |
Title of parent work (English): | Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology / Nordic Ecologic Society Oikos |
Publisher: | Wiley-Blackwell |
Place of publishing: | Oxford |
Publication type: | Article |
Language: | English |
Date of first publication: | 2021/10/08 |
Publication year: | 2022 |
Release date: | 2022/05/19 |
Tag: | adaptive management; biodiversity conservation; cost optimisation; ecosystem restoration; global change; predictive models |
Issue: | 4 |
Number of pages: | 16 |
First page: | 1 |
Last Page: | 16 |
Funding institution: | German Science Foundation (DFG) German Research Foundation (DFG) |
Funding institution: | Royal Society University Research Fellowship, Royal Society of London |
Funding institution: | Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, German Research Foundation (DFG) |
Funding institution: | Open Access Publishing Fund of University of Potsdam |
Funding number: | ZU 361/11 |
Funding number: | UF160614 |
Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Biochemie und Biologie |
Extern / Extern | |
DDC classification: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 57 Biowissenschaften; Biologie / 570 Biowissenschaften; Biologie |
Peer review: | Referiert |
Grantor: | Publikationsfonds der Universität Potsdam |
Publishing method: | Open Access / Gold Open-Access |
License (English): | ![]() |
External remark: | Zweitveröffentlichung in der Schriftenreihe Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe ; 1243 |