Will Steffen, Johan Röckstrom, Katherine Richardson, Timothy M. Lenton, Carl Folke, Diana Liverman, Colin P. Summerhayes, Anthony D. Barnosky, Sarah E. Cornell, Michel Crucifix, Jonathan Donges, Ingo Fetzer, Steven J. Lade, Marten Scheffer, Ricarda Winkelmann, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
- We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a "Hothouse Earth" pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System-biosphere, climate, and societies-and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbonWe explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a "Hothouse Earth" pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System-biosphere, climate, and societies-and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.…
MetadatenAuthor details: | Will Steffen, Johan RöckstromORCiDGND, Katherine RichardsonORCiD, Timothy M. Lenton, Carl FolkeORCiD, Diana Liverman, Colin P. Summerhayes, Anthony D. Barnosky, Sarah E. Cornell, Michel CrucifixORCiD, Jonathan DongesORCiDGND, Ingo FetzerORCiD, Steven J. Lade, Marten Scheffer, Ricarda WinkelmannORCiDGND, Hans Joachim SchellnhuberORCiDGND |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1810141115 |
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ISSN: | 0027-8424 |
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Pubmed ID: | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30082409 |
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Title of parent work (English): | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
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Publisher: | National Acad. of Sciences |
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Place of publishing: | Washington |
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Publication type: | Article |
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Language: | English |
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Date of first publication: | 2018/08/06 |
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Publication year: | 2018 |
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Release date: | 2021/10/15 |
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Tag: | Anthropocene; Earth System trajectories; biosphere feedbacks; climate change; tipping elements |
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Volume: | 115 |
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Issue: | 33 |
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Number of pages: | 8 |
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First page: | 8252 |
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Last Page: | 8259 |
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Funding institution: | Stordalen Foundation; Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit AwardRoyal Society of London; European Union Framework Programme 7 Project HELIXEuropean Union (EU); Erling-Persson Family Foundation; Haury Program in Environment and Social Justice; National Science Foundation (USA) Decadal and Regional Climate Prediction using Earth System Models GrantNational Science Foundation (NSF) [1243125]; Swedish Research Council Formas GrantSwedish Research Council Formas [2012-742]; Leibniz Association Project DOMINOES; Formas Grant [2014-589]; European Research Council Advanced Grant 2016, Earth Resilience in the Anthropocene Project [743080] |
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Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Physik und Astronomie |
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DDC classification: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 53 Physik / 530 Physik |
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Peer review: | Referiert |
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Publishing method: | Open Access / Hybrid Open-Access |
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License (German): | CC-BY-NC-ND - Namensnennung, nicht kommerziell, keine Bearbeitungen 4.0 International |
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