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Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient

  • Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species.

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Author details:Viktoriia RadchukORCiD, Thomas ReedORCiD, Celine Teplitsky, Martijn van de PolORCiD, Anne Charmantier, Christopher HassallORCiD, Peter AdamikORCiD, Frank Adriaensen, Markus P. Ahola, Peter Arcese, Jesus Miguel Aviles, Javier Balbontin, Karl S. Berg, Antoni Borras, Sarah Burthe, Jean Clobert, Nina DehnhardORCiD, Florentino de Lope, Andre A. Dhondt, Niels J. Dingemanse, Hideyuki Doi, Tapio Eeva, Jörns FickelORCiDGND, Iolanda Filella, Frode Fossoy, Anne E. Goodenough, Stephen J. G. Hall, Bengt HanssonORCiD, Michael Harris, Dennis Hasselquist, Thomas HicklerORCiD, Jasmin Jasmin RadhaORCiDGND, Heather Kharouba, Juan Gabriel Martinez, Jean-Baptiste MihoubORCiD, James A. Mills, Mercedes Molina-Morales, Arne Moksnes, Arpat Ozgul, Deseada Parejo, Philippe Pilard, Maud Poisbleau, Francois RoussetORCiD, Mark-Oliver RödelORCiDGND, David ScottORCiD, Juan Carlos Senar, Constanti Stefanescu, Bard G. Stokke, Tamotsu Kusano, Maja Tarka, Corey E. Tarwater, Kirsten ThonickeORCiDGND, Jack Thorley, Andreas Wilting, Piotr TryjanowskiORCiD, Juha MerilaORCiD, Ben C. Sheldon, Anders Pape Moller, Erik Matthysen, Fredric Janzen, F. Stephen Dobson, Marcel E. Visser, Steven R. Beissinger, Alexandre CourtiolORCiD, Stephanie Kramer-SchadtORCiD
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10924-4
ISSN:2041-1723
Pubmed ID:https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31337752
Title of parent work (English):Nature Communications
Publisher:Nature Publ. Group
Place of publishing:London
Publication type:Article
Language:English
Date of first publication:2019/07/23
Publication year:2019
Release date:2021/01/05
Volume:10
Number of pages:14
Funding institution:European Research CouncilEuropean Research Council (ERC) [ERC-2013-StG-337365-SHE, ERC-2013-AdG-339092-E, ERC-2014-StG-639192-ALH]; Ministry of Economy and Competitivity; Swedish Research CouncilSwedish Research Council [621-2014-5222]; Spanish Research CouncilConsejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas (CSIC) [CGL-2016-79568-C3-3-P]; US National Science FoundationNational Science Foundation (NSF) [DEB-1242510, DEB-0089473]; Academy of FinlandAcademy of Finland [265859]; US Department of EnergyUnited States Department of Energy (DOE) [DE-FC09-07SR22506]
Organizational units:Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Biochemie und Biologie
DDC classification:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 57 Biowissenschaften; Biologie / 570 Biowissenschaften; Biologie
Peer review:Referiert
Publishing method:Open Access / Gold Open-Access
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License (German):License LogoCC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International
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