Regional opportunities for tundra conservation in the next 1000 years
- The biodiversity of tundra areas in northern high latitudes is threatened by invasion of forests under global warming. However, poorly understood nonlinear responses of the treeline ecotone mean the timing and extent of tundra losses are unclear, but policymakers need such information to optimize conservation efforts. Our individual-based model LAVESI, developed for the Siberian tundra-taiga ecotone, can help improve our understanding. Consequently, we simulated treeline migration trajectories until the end of the millennium, causing a loss of tundra area when advancing north. Our simulations reveal that the treeline follows climate warming with a severe, century-long time lag, which is overcompensated by infilling of stands in the long run even when temperatures cool again. Our simulations reveal that only under ambitious mitigation strategies (relative concentration pathway 2.6) will ~30% of original tundra areas remain in the north but separated into two disjunct refugia.
Author details: | Stefan KruseORCiDGND, Ulrike HerzschuhORCiDGND |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.75163 |
ISSN: | 2050-084X |
Pubmed ID: | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35607894 |
Title of parent work (English): | eLife |
Publisher: | eLife Sciences Publications |
Place of publishing: | Cambridge |
Publication type: | Article |
Language: | English |
Date of first publication: | 2022/05/24 |
Publication year: | 2022 |
Release date: | 2023/12/14 |
Tag: | Ecology; Larix cajanderi; Larix gmelinii; Short Report; nonlinear response; treeline ecotone; tundra |
Volume: | 11 |
Article number: | e75163 |
Number of pages: | 24 |
Funding institution: | H2020 European Research Council [772852] |
Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Biochemie und Biologie |
Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Umweltwissenschaften und Geographie | |
DDC classification: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften |
Peer review: | Referiert |
Publishing method: | Open Access / Gold Open-Access |
License (German): | CC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International |