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Large earthquakes can increase the amount of water feeding stream flows, raise groundwater levels, and thus grant plant roots more access to water in water-limited environments. We examine growth and photosynthetic responses of Pine plantations to the Maule M-w 8.8 earthquake in headwater catchments of Chile's Coastal Range. We combine high-resolution wood anatomic (lumen area) and biogeochemical (delta 13C of wood cellulose) proxies of daily to weekly tree growth sampled from trees on floodplains and close to ridge lines. We find that, immediately after the earthquake, at least two out of six tree trees on valley floors had increased lumen area and decreased delta 13C, while trees on hillslopes had a reverse trend. Our results indicate a control of soil water on this response, largely consistent with models that predict how enhanced postseismic vertical soil permeability causes groundwater levels to rise on valley floors, but fall along the ridges. Statistical analysis with boosted regression trees indicates that streamflow discharge gained predictive importance for photosynthetic activity on the ridges, but lost importance on the valley floor after the earthquake. We infer that earthquakes may stimulate ecohydrological conditions favoring tree growth over days to weeks by triggering stomatal opening. The weak and short-lived signals that we identified, however, show that such responses are only valid under water-limited, rather than energy-limited tree, growth. Hence, dendrochronological studies targeted at annual resolution may overlook some earthquake effects on tree vitality.
Antarctica is the last pristine environment on Earth, its biota being adapted to the harsh and extreme polar climate. Until now, soil formation and vegetation development in continental Antarctica were considered very slow due to the extreme conditions of this polar desert. Since the austral summer 2002/2003, a long-term monitoring network of the terrestrial ecosystems (soils, vegetation, active layer thickness) has been established at Victoria Land (VL) across a > 500 km latitudinal gradient of coastal sites (73 degrees -77 degrees S). In only one decade large ecosystem changes were detected. Climate was characterized by a significant increase of thawing degree days in northern VL and of autumn air temperature. No extreme climatic events (such as hot spells) where detected in the study period. Soil chemistry suffered large quantitative changes, clearly indicating rapid pedogenetic processes. In most soils the upper layers exhibited a strong alkalinization (pH increases up to 3 units) and increases in conductivity, anions and cations (in particular of SO4 and Na). The largest changes were observed in soils with low vegetation cover. Statistically significant differences in soil chemistry were detected between soils with high and low vegetation cover, the former showing lower pH, conductivity, Na and Cl. Most plots exhibited changes of total cover, species richness and floristic composition, with vegetation expansion in soils with low vegetation cover and the largest increase recorded at Apostrophe Island (northern VL). Principal Component Analysis (PCA) identified the main trend of vegetation change, with a shift from lower to higher cover and a secondary trend of change associated with a gradient of water availability, consistent with an increase in water instead of snow. Redundancy analysis (RDA) identified the trend of change in soil chemistry with increases in pH, conductivity, anions and cations associated with the concomitant decrease in C, N, NO3, PO4. The RDA confirmed that soil changes were associated with a gradient of vegetation change (from low to high cover) as well as of water availability, as already indirectly outlined by the PCA. Field manipulation experiments carried out at five locations of the network between 73 degrees S and 77 degrees S, simulating increases of precipitation from snow or water additions didn't induce changes in soil pH, indicating that pulse events of snow accumulation or melting could not trigger persistent soil pH changes. These data allow hypothesize the occurrence of a main ecosystem change occurring at regional scale at Victoria Land. The slight air warming and its consequences on soil chemistry and vegetation, further highlight the sensitivity of the fragile Antarctic ecosystems to the consequences of even small changes in climate.
Deriving soil moisture content (SMC) at the regional scale with different spatial and temporal land cover changes is still a challenge for active and passive remote sensing systems, often coped with machine learning methods.
So far, the reference measurements of the data-driven approaches are usually based on point data, which entails a scale gap to the resolution of the remote sensing data. Cosmic Ray Neutron Sensing (CRNS) indirectly provides SMC estimates of a soil volume covering more than 1 ha and vertical depth up to 80 cm and is thus able to narrow this scale gap.
So far, the CRNS-based SMC has only been used as validation source of remote sensing based SMC products. Its beneficial large sensing volume, especially in depth, has not been exploited yet.
However, the sensing volume of the CRNS, which is changing with hydrological conditions, bears challenges for the comparison with remote sensing observations. This study, for the fist time, aims to understand the direct linkage of optical (Sentinel 2) and SAR (Sentinel 1) data with CRNS-based SMC.
Thereby, the CRNS-based SMC is obtained by an experimental CRNS cluster that covers the high temporal and spatial SMC variability of an entire pre-alpine subcatchment. Using different Random Forest regressions, we analyze the potentials and limitations of both remote sensing sensors to follow the CRNS-based SMC signal.
Our results show that it is possible to link the CRNS-based SMC signal with SAR and optical remote sensing observations via Random Forest modelling.
We found that Sentinel 2 data is able to separate wet from dry periods with a R2 of 0.68.
It is less affected by the changing soil volume that contributes to the CRNS-based SMC signal and it is able to assign a land cover specific SMC distribution.
However, Sentinel 2 regression models are not accurate (R2 < 0.21) in mapping the CRNSbased SMC for the frequently mowed grassland areas of the study site. It requires soil type and topographical information to accurately follow the CRNS-based SMC signal with Random Forest regression.
Sentinel 1 data instead is affected by the changing soil volume that contributes to the CRNS-based SMC signal. It has reasonable model performance (R2 = 0.34) when the CRNS data correspond to surface SMC. Also for Sentinel 1 the retrieval is impacted by the mowing activities at the test site.
When separating the CRNS data set into dry and wet periods, soil properties and topography are the main drivers of SMC estimation. Sentinel 1 or Sentinel 2 data add the existing temporal variability to the regression models. The analysis underlines the need of combining optical and SAR observations (Sentinel 1, Sentinel 2) as well as soil property and topographical information to understand and follow the CRNS-based SMC signal for different hydrological conditions and land cover types.
We review properties and processes of earthquake rupture zones based on field studies, laboratory observations, theoretical models and simulations, with the goal of assessing the possible dominance of different processes in different parts of the rupture and validity of commonly used models. Rupture zones may be divided into front, intermediate, and tail regions that interact to different extents. The rupture front is dominated by fracturing and granulation processes and strong dilatation, producing faulting products that are reworked by subsequent sliding behind. The intermediate region sustains primarily frictional sliding with relatively high slip rates that produce appreciable stress transfer to the propagating front. The tail region further behind is characterized by low slip rates that effectively do not influence the propagating front, although it (and the intermediate region) can spawn small offspring rupture fronts. Wave-mediated stress transfer can also trigger failures ahead of the rupture front. Earthquake ruptures are often spatially discontinuous and intermittent with a hierarchy of asperity and segment sizes that radiate waves with different tensorial compositions and frequency bands. While different deformation processes dominating parts of the rupture zones can be treated effectively with existing constitutive relations, a more appropriate analysis of earthquake processes would require a model that combines aspects of fracture, damage-breakage, and frictional frameworks.
Like many other regions in central Europe, Germany experienced sequential summer droughts from 2015 to 2018. As one of the environmental consequences, river nitrate concentrations have exhibited significant changes in many catchments.
However, catchment nitrate responses to the changing weather conditions have not yet been mechanistically explored.
Thus, a fully distributed, process-based catchment Nitrate model (mHM-Nitrate) was used to reveal the causal relations in the Bode catchment, of which river nitrate concentrations have experienced contrasting trends from upstream to downstream reaches. The model was evaluated using data from six gauging stations, reflecting different levels of runoff components and their associated nitrate-mixing from upstream to downstream.
Results indicated that the mHM-Nitrate model reproduced dynamics of daily discharge and nitrate concentration well, with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency >= 0.73 for discharge and Kling-Gupta Efficiency >= 0.50 for nitrate concentration at most stations.
Particularly, the spatially contrasting trends of nitrate con-centration were successfully captured by the model.
The decrease of nitrate concentration in the lowland area in drought years (2015-2018) was presumably due to (1) limited terrestrial export loading (ca. 40 % lower than that of normal years 2004-2014), and (2) increased in-stream retention efficiency (20 % higher in summer within the whole river network).
From a mechanistic modelling perspective, this study provided insights into spatially heterogeneous flow and nitrate dynamics and effects of sequential droughts, which shed light on water -quality responses to future climate change, as droughts are projected to be more frequent.
The optical properties, chemical composition, and potential chromophores of brown carbon (BrC) aerosol particles were studied during typical summertime and wintertime at a kerbside in downtown Karl-sruhe, a city in central Europe.
The average absorption coefficient and mass absorption efficiency at 365 nm (Abs(365) and MAE(365)) of methanol-soluble BrC (MS-BrC) were lower in the summer period (1.6 +/- 0.5 Mm(-1), 0.5 +/- 0.2 m(2) g(-1)) than in the winter period (2.8 +/- 1.9 Mm(-1), 1.1 +/- 0.3 m(2) g(-1)). Using a parallel factor (PARAFAC) analysis to identify chromophores, two different groups of highly oxygenated humic-like substances (HO-HULIS) dominated in summer and contributed 96 +/- 6 % of the total fluorescence intensity.
In contrast, less-oxygenated HULIS (LO-HULIS) dominated the total fluorescence intensity in winter with 57 +/- 12 %, followed by HO-HULIS with 31 +/- 18 %. Positive matrix factorization (PMF) analysis of organic compounds detected in real time by an online aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) led to five characteristic organic compound classes.
The statistical analysis of PARAFAC components and PMF factors showed that LO-HULIS chromophores were most likely emitted from biomass burning in winter. HO-HULIS chromophores could be low-volatility oxy-genated organic aerosol from regional transport and oxidation of biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in summer.
Five nitro-aromatic compounds (NACs) were identified by a chemical ionization mass spectrometer (C7H7O3N, C7H7O4N, C6H5O5N, C6H5O4N, and C6H5O3N), which contributed 0.03 +/- 0.01 % to the total organic mass but can explain 0.3 +/- 0.1 % of the total absorption of MS-BrC at 365 nm in winter.
Furthermore, we identified 316 potential brown carbon molecules which accounted for 2.5 +/- 0.6 % of the organic aerosol mass. Using an average mass absorption efficiency (MAE(365)) of 9.5 m(2)g(-1) for these compounds, we can es-timate their mean light absorption to be 1.2 +/- 0.2 Mm(-1), accounting for 32 +/- 15 % of the total absorption of MS-BrC at 365 nm.
This indicates that a small fraction of brown carbon molecules dominates the overall ab-sorption. The potential BrC molecules assigned to the LO-HULIS component had a higher average molecular weight (265 +/- 2 Da) and more nitrogen-containing molecules (62 +/- 1 %) than the molecules assigned to the HOHULIS components.
Our analysis shows that the LO-HULIS, with a high contribution of nitrogen-containing molecules originating from biomass burning, dominates aerosol fluorescence in winter, and HO-HULIS, with fewer nitrogen-containing molecules as low-volatility oxygenated organic aerosol from regional transport and oxidation of biogenic volatile organic compounds (VOC), dominates in summer.
Increased rates of glacier retreat and thinning need accurate local estimates of glacier elevation change to predict future changes in glacier runoff and their contribution to sea level rise. Glacier elevation change is typically derived from digital elevation models (DEMs) tied to surface change analysis from satellite imagery. Yet, the rugged topography in mountain regions can cast shadows onto glacier surfaces, making it difficult to detect local glacier elevation changes in remote areas. A rather untapped resource comprises precise, time-stamped metadata on the solar position and angle in satellite images. These data are useful for simulating shadows from a given DEM. Accordingly, any differences in shadow length between simulated and mapped shadows in satellite images could indicate a change in glacier elevation relative to the acquisition date of the DEM. We tested this hypothesis at five selected glaciers with long-term monitoring programmes. For each glacier, we projected cast shadows onto the glacier surface from freely available DEMs and compared simulated shadows to cast shadows mapped from ∼40 years of Landsat images. W validated the relative differences with geodetic measurements of glacier elevation change where these shadows occurred. We find that shadow-derived glacier elevation changes are consistent with independent photogrammetric and geodetic surveys in shaded areas. Accordingly, a shadow cast on Baltoro Glacier (the Karakoram, Pakistan) suggests no changes in elevation between 1987 and 2020, while shadows on Great Aletsch Glacier (Switzerland) point to negative thinning rates of about 1 m yr−1 in our sample. Our estimates of glacier elevation change are tied to occurrence of mountain shadows and may help complement field campaigns in regions that are difficult to access. This information can be vital to quantify possibly varying elevation-dependent changes in the accumulation or ablation zone of a given glacier. Shadow-based retrieval of glacier elevation changes hinges on the precision of the DEM as the geometry of ridges and peaks constrains the shadow that we cast on the glacier surface. Future generations of DEMs with higher resolution and accuracy will improve our method, enriching the toolbox for tracking historical glacier mass balances from satellite and aerial images.
Regional Flood Frequency Analysis (RFFA) is one of the widely used approaches for estimating design floods in the ungauged basins.
We developed an eXtreme Gradient Boost (XGB) machine learning model for RFFA and flood estimation.
Our approach relies on developing a regression model between flood quantiles and the commonly available catchment descriptors.
We used CAMELs data for 671 catchments from the USA to test the approach's efficacy. The results were compared with the traditional Multiple Linear Regression methods and Artificial Neural Networks.
Results revealed that the XGB-based approach estimated design flood with the highest accuracy during training and validation with minor mean absolute error, root mean square error values, and percentage bias ranging from -10 to + 10.
The importance of each catchment feature is visualized by three different approaches Gini Impurity, Permutation, and Dropout Loss Feature Ranking. We observed that the most dominating variables are rainfall intensity, slope, snow fraction, soil porosity, and temperature. It is observed that the importance of these variables is a function of the hydroclimatic regions and varies with space.
In contrast, mean annual areal potential evapotranspiration, mean annual rainfall, fraction forest area, and soil conductivity have low significance in estimating design flood for an ungauged catchment.
Indeed, the proposed XGB-based approach has broader applicability and replicability.
In this work, we present a comprehensive evaluation of a stochastic multi-site, multi-variate weather generator at the scale of entire Germany and parts of the neighbouring countries covering the major German river basins Elbe, Upper Danube, Rhine, Weser and Ems with a total area of approximately 580,000 km(2). The regional weather generator, which is based on a first-order multi-variate auto-regressive model, is setup using 53-year long daily observational data at 528 locations. The performance is evaluated by investigating the ability of the weather generator to replicate various important statistical properties of the observed variables including precipitation occurrence and dry/wet transition probabilities, mean daily and extreme precipitation, multi-day precipitation sums, spatial correlation structure, areal precipitation, mean daily and extreme temperature and solar radiation. We explore two marginal distributions for daily precipitation amount: mixed Gamma-Generalized Pareto and extended Generalized Pareto. Furthermore, we introduce a new procedure to estimate the spatial correlation matrix and model mean daily temperature and solar radiation. The extensive evaluation reveals that the weather generator is greatly capable of capturing most of the crucial properties of the weather variables, particularly of extreme precipitation at individual locations. Some deficiencies are detected in capturing spatial precipitation correlation structure that leads to an overestimation of areal precipitation extremes. Further improvement of the spatial correlation structure is envisaged for future research. The mixed marginal model found to outperform the extended Generalized Pareto in our case. The use of power transformation in combination with normal distribution significantly improves the performance for non-precipitation variables. The weather generator can be used to generate synthetic event footprints for large-scale trans-basin flood risk assessment.
Large agricultural streams receive excessive inputs of nitrogen.
However, quantifying the role of these streams in nitrogen processing remains limited because continuous direct measurements of the interacting and highly time-varying nitrogen processing pathways in larger streams and rivers are very complex.
Therefore, we employed a monitoring-driven modelling approach with high-frequency in situ data and the river water quality model Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP) 7.5.2 in the 27.4 km reach of the sixth-order agricultural stream called Lower Bode (central Germany) for a 5-year period (2014-2018).
Paired high-frequency sensor data (15 min interval) of discharge, nitrate, dissolved oxygen, and chlorophyll a at upstream and downstream stations were used as model boundaries and for setting model constraints.
The WASP model simulated 15 min intervals of discharge, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values higher than 0.9 for calibration and validation, enabling the calculation of gross and net dissolved inorganic nitrogen uptake and pathway rates on a daily, seasonal, and multiannual scale.
Results showed daily net uptake rate of dissolved inorganic nitrogen ranged from -17.4 to 553.9 mgNm(-2)d(-1). The highest daily net uptake could reach almost 30 % of the total input loading, which occurred at extreme low flow in summer 2018.
The growing season (spring and summer) accounted for 91 % of the average net annual uptake of dissolved inorganic nitrogen in the measured period. In spring, both the DIN gross and net uptake were dominated by the phytoplankton uptake pathway. In summer, benthic algae assimilation dominated the gross uptake of dissolved inorganic nitrogen.
Conversely, the reach became a net source of dissolved inorganic nitrogen with negative daily net uptake values in autumn and winter, mainly because the release from benthic algae surpassed uptake processes.
Over the 5 years, average gross and net uptake rates of dissolved inorganic nitrogen were 124.1 and 56.8 mgNm(-2)d(-1), which accounted for only 2.7 % and 1.2 % of the total loadings in the Lower Bode, respectively. The 5-year average gross DIN uptake decreased from assimilation by benthic algae through assimilation by phytoplankton to denitrification.
Our study highlights the value of combining river water quality modelling with high-frequency data to obtain a reliable budget of instream dissolved inorganic nitrogen processing which facilitates our ability to manage nitrogen in aquatic systems.
This study provides a methodology that can be applied to any large stream to quantify nitrogen processing pathway dynamics and complete our understanding of nitrogen cycling.