The deglacial forest conundrum
- How fast the Northern Hemisphere (NH) forest biome tracks strongly warming climates is largely unknown. Regional studies reveal lags between decades and millennia. Here we report a conundrum: Deglacial forest expansion in the NH extra-tropics occurs approximately 4000 years earlier in a transient MPI-ESM1.2 simulation than shown by pollen-based biome reconstructions. Shortcomings in the model and the reconstructions could both contribute to this mismatch, leaving the underlying causes unresolved. The simulated vegetation responds within decades to simulated climate changes, which agree with pollen-independent reconstructions. Thus, we can exclude climate biases as main driver for differences. Instead, the mismatch points at a multi-millennial disequilibrium of the NH forest biome to the climate signal. Therefore, the evaluation of time-slice simulations in strongly changing climates with pollen records should be critically reassessed. Our results imply that NH forests may be responding much slower to ongoing climate changes than EarthHow fast the Northern Hemisphere (NH) forest biome tracks strongly warming climates is largely unknown. Regional studies reveal lags between decades and millennia. Here we report a conundrum: Deglacial forest expansion in the NH extra-tropics occurs approximately 4000 years earlier in a transient MPI-ESM1.2 simulation than shown by pollen-based biome reconstructions. Shortcomings in the model and the reconstructions could both contribute to this mismatch, leaving the underlying causes unresolved. The simulated vegetation responds within decades to simulated climate changes, which agree with pollen-independent reconstructions. Thus, we can exclude climate biases as main driver for differences. Instead, the mismatch points at a multi-millennial disequilibrium of the NH forest biome to the climate signal. Therefore, the evaluation of time-slice simulations in strongly changing climates with pollen records should be critically reassessed. Our results imply that NH forests may be responding much slower to ongoing climate changes than Earth System Models predict. <br /> Deglacial forest expansion in the Northern Hemisphere poses a conundrum: Model results agree with the climate signal but are several millennia ahead of reconstructed forest dynamics. The underlying causes remain unsolved.…
Author details: | Anne DallmeyerORCiDGND, Thomas KleinenORCiD, Martin ClaussenORCiDGND, Nils WeitzelORCiDGND, Xianyong CaoORCiDGND, Ulrike HerzschuhORCiDGND |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-33646-6 |
ISSN: | 2041-1723 |
Pubmed ID: | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36229452 |
Title of parent work (English): | Nature Communications |
Publisher: | Nature Publishing Group UK |
Place of publishing: | [London] |
Publication type: | Article |
Language: | English |
Date of first publication: | 2022/10/13 |
Publication year: | 2022 |
Release date: | 2023/11/17 |
Volume: | 13 |
Issue: | 1 |
Article number: | 6035 |
Number of pages: | 10 |
Funding institution: | German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF), Research for; Sustainability initiative (FONA); Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG,; German Research Foundation) [390683824]; PalMod [01LP1920A, 01LP1921A,; 01LP1926C]; Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) [395588486]; National; Natural Science Foundation of China [41988101]; Sino-German Mobility; Programme [M-0359]; Scientific Steering Committee (WLA) [bm1030];; project DEAL |
Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Biochemie und Biologie |
Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Umweltwissenschaften und Geographie | |
DDC classification: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften |
Peer review: | Referiert |
Publishing method: | Open Access / Gold Open-Access |
DOAJ gelistet | |
License (German): | CC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International |