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The influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation regimes on eastern African vegetation and its future implications under the RCP8.5 warming scenario

  • The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of the interannual variability in eastern African rainfall, with a significant impact on vegetation and agriculture and dire consequences for food and social security. In this study, we identify and quantify the ENSO contribution to the eastern African rainfall variability to forecast future eastern African vegetation response to rainfall variability related to a predicted intensified ENSO. To differentiate the vegetation variability due to ENSO, we removed the ENSO signal from the climate data using empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis. Then, we simulated the ecosystem carbon and water fluxes under the historical climate without components related to ENSO teleconnections. We found ENSO-driven patterns in vegetation response and confirmed that EOT analysis can successfully produce coupled tropical Pacific sea surface temperature-eastern African rainfall teleconnection from observed datasets. We further simulated eastern African vegetation response under futureThe El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of the interannual variability in eastern African rainfall, with a significant impact on vegetation and agriculture and dire consequences for food and social security. In this study, we identify and quantify the ENSO contribution to the eastern African rainfall variability to forecast future eastern African vegetation response to rainfall variability related to a predicted intensified ENSO. To differentiate the vegetation variability due to ENSO, we removed the ENSO signal from the climate data using empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis. Then, we simulated the ecosystem carbon and water fluxes under the historical climate without components related to ENSO teleconnections. We found ENSO-driven patterns in vegetation response and confirmed that EOT analysis can successfully produce coupled tropical Pacific sea surface temperature-eastern African rainfall teleconnection from observed datasets. We further simulated eastern African vegetation response under future climate change as it is projected by climate models and under future climate change combined with a predicted increased ENSO intensity. Our EOT analysis highlights that climate simulations are still not good at capturing rainfall variability due to ENSO, and as we show here the future vegetation would be different from what is simulated under these climate model outputs lacking accurate ENSO contribution. We simulated considerable differences in eastern African vegetation growth under the influence of an intensified ENSO regime which will bring further environmental stress to a region with a reduced capacity to adapt effects of global climate change and food security.zeige mehrzeige weniger

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Metadaten
Verfasserangaben:Istem FerORCiDGND, Britta TietjenORCiD, Florian JeltschORCiDGND, Christian Michael WolffORCiDGND
URN:urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-403853
Schriftenreihe (Bandnummer):Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe (394)
Publikationstyp:Postprint
Sprache:Englisch
Datum der Erstveröffentlichung:17.11.2017
Erscheinungsjahr:2017
Veröffentlichende Institution:Universität Potsdam
Datum der Freischaltung:17.11.2017
Seitenanzahl:20
Quelle:Biogeosciences 14 (2017) Nr. 18, S. 4355-4374. - DOI: 10.5194/bg-14-4355-2017
Organisationseinheiten:Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Biochemie und Biologie
DDC-Klassifikation:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften
5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 57 Biowissenschaften; Biologie / 570 Biowissenschaften; Biologie
Peer Review:Referiert
Publikationsweg:Open Access
Lizenz (Englisch):License LogoCreative Commons - Namensnennung 3.0 Unported
Externe Anmerkung:Bibliographieeintrag der Originalveröffentlichung/Quelle
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