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The Paris Climate Agreement aims to keep temperature rise well below 2 degrees C. This implies mitigation costs as well as avoided climate damages. Here we show that independent of the normative assumptions of inequality aversion and time preferences, the agreement constitutes the economically optimal policy pathway for the century. To this end we consistently incorporate a damage-cost curve reproducing the observed relation between temperature and economic growth into the integrated assessment model DICE. We thus provide an intertemporally optimizing cost-benefit analysis of this century's climate problem. We account for uncertainties regarding the damage curve, climate sensitivity, socioeconomic future, and mitigation costs. The resulting optimal temperature is robust as can be understood from the generic temperature-dependence of the mitigation costs and the level of damages inferred from the observed temperature-growth relationship. Our results show that the politically motivated Paris Climate Agreement also represents the economically favourable pathway, if carried out properly.
Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 degrees C (interquartile range: 0.39-0.46 degrees C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales. The disintegration of cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, mountain glaciers, Greenland and West Antarctica is associated with temperature and radiative feedbacks. In this work, the authors quantify these feedbacks and find an additional global warming of 0.43 degrees C.
Consequences of fluctuating microscopic conductivity in mean-field electrodynamics of turbulent fluids are formulated and discussed. If the conductivity fluctuations are assumed to be uncorrelated with the velocity fluctuations then only the turbulence-originated magnetic diffusivity of the fluid is reduced and the decay time of a large-scale magnetic field or the cycle times of oscillating turbulent dynamo models are increased. If, however, the fluctuations of conductivity and flow in a certain well-defined direction are correlated, an additional diamagnetic pumping effect results, transporting the magnetic field in the opposite direction to the diffusivity flux vector <eta'u'>. In the presence of global rotation, even for homogeneous turbulence fields, an alpha effect appears. If the characteristic values of the outer core of the Earth or the solar convection zone are applied, the dynamo number of the new alpha effect does not reach supercritical values to operate as an alpha(2)-dynamo but oscillating alpha Omega-dynamos with differential rotation are not excluded.
Professional knowledge is an important source of science teachers' actions in the classroom (e.g., personal professional content knowledge [pedagogical content knowledge, PCK] is the source of enacted PCK in the refined consensus model [RCM] for PCK). However, the evidence for this claim is ambiguous at best. This study applied a cross-lagged panel design to examine the relationship between professional knowledge and actions in one particular instructional situation: explaining physics. Pre- and post a field experience (one semester), 47 preservice physics teachers from four different universities were tested for their content knowledge (CK), PCK, pedagogical knowledge (PK), and action-related skills in explaining physics. The study showed that joint professional knowledge (the weighted sum of CK, PCK, and PK scores) at the beginning of the field experience impacted the development of explaining skills during the field experience (beta = .38**). We interpret this as a particular relationship between professional knowledge and science teachers' action-related skills (enacted PCK): professional knowledge is necessary for the development of explaining skills. That is evidence that personal PCK affects enacted PCK. In addition, field experiences are often supposed to bridge the theory-practice gap by transforming professional knowledge into instructional practice. Our results suggest that for field experiences to be effective, preservice teachers should start with profound professional knowledge.
More than half of Earth's freshwater resources are held by the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which thus represents by far the largest potential source for global sea-level rise under future warming conditions(1). Its long-term stability determines the fate of our coastal cities and cultural heritage. Feedbacks between ice, atmosphere, ocean, and the solid Earth give rise to potential nonlinearities in its response to temperature changes. So far, we are lacking a comprehensive stability analysis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet for different amounts of global warming. Here we show that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits a multitude of temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss is irreversible. Consistent with palaeodata(2)we find, using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model(3-5), that at global warming levels around 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, West Antarctica is committed to long-term partial collapse owing to the marine ice-sheet instability. Between 6 and 9 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, the loss of more than 70 per cent of the present-day ice volume is triggered, mainly caused by the surface elevation feedback. At more than 10 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, Antarctica is committed to become virtually ice-free. The ice sheet's temperature sensitivity is 1.3 metres of sea-level equivalent per degree of warming up to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, almost doubling to 2.4 metres per degree of warming between 2 and 6 degrees and increasing to about 10 metres per degree of warming between 6 and 9 degrees. Each of these thresholds gives rise to hysteresis behaviour: that is, the currently observed ice-sheet configuration is not regained even if temperatures are reversed to present-day levels. In particular, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet does not regrow to its modern extent until temperatures are at least one degree Celsius lower than pre-industrial levels. Our results show that if the Paris Agreement is not met, Antarctica's long-term sea-level contribution will dramatically increase and exceed that of all other sources. <br /> Modelling shows that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits multiple temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss would become irreversible, and once melted, the ice sheet can regain its previous mass only if the climate cools well below pre-industrial temperatures.
Organic solar cells are currently experiencing a second golden age thanks to the development of novel non-fullerene acceptors (NFAs). Surprisingly, some of these blends exhibit high efficiencies despite a low energy offset at the heterojunction. Herein, free charge generation in the high-performance blend of the donor polymer PM6 with the NFA Y6 is thoroughly investigated as a function of internal field, temperature and excitation energy. Results show that photocurrent generation is essentially barrierless with near-unity efficiency, regardless of excitation energy. Efficient charge separation is maintained over a wide temperature range, down to 100 K, despite the small driving force for charge generation. Studies on a blend with a low concentration of the NFA, measurements of the energetic disorder, and theoretical modeling suggest that CT state dissociation is assisted by the electrostatic interfacial field which for Y6 is large enough to compensate the Coulomb dissociation barrier.
We consider several examples of dynamical systems demonstrating overlapping attractor and repeller. These systems are constructed via introducing controllable dissipation to prototypic models with chaotic dynamics (Anosov cat map, Chirikov standard map, and incompressible three-dimensional flow of the ABC-type on a three-torus) and ergodic non-chaotic behavior (skew-shift map). We employ the Kantorovich-Rubinstein-Wasserstein distance to characterize the difference between the attractor and the repeller, in dependence on the dissipation level.
Heterogeneous diffusion processes (HDPs) with space-dependent diffusion coefficients D(x) are found in a number of real-world systems, such as for diffusion of macromolecules or submicron tracers in biological cells. Here, we examine HDPs in quenched-disorder systems with Gaussian colored noise (GCN) characterized by a diffusion coefficient with a power-law dependence on the particle position and with a spatially random scaling exponent. Typically, D(x) is considered to be centerd at the origin and the entire x axis is characterized by a single scaling exponent a. In this work we consider a spatially random scenario: in periodic intervals ("layers") in space D(x) is centerd to the midpoint of each interval. In each interval the scaling exponent alpha is randomly chosen from a Gaussian distribution. The effects of the variation of the scaling exponents, the periodicity of the domains ("layer thickness") of the diffusion coefficient in this stratified system, and the correlation time of the GCN are analyzed numerically in detail. We discuss the regimes of superdiffusion, subdiffusion, and normal diffusion realisable in this system. We observe and quantify the domains where nonergodic and non-Gaussian behaviors emerge in this system. Our results provide new insights into the understanding of weak ergodicity breaking for HDPs driven by colored noise, with potential applications in quenched layered systems, typical model systems for diffusion in biological cells and tissues, as well as for diffusion in geophysical systems.
The present work offers an explanation on how the long-range interaction of dislocations influences their movement, and therefore the strain, during creep of metals. It is proposed that collective motion of dislocations can be described as a fractional Brownian motion. This explains the noisy appearance of the creep strain signal as a function of time. Such signal is split into a deterministic and a stochastic part. These terms can be related to two kinds of dislocation motions: individual and collective, respectively. The description is consistent with the fractal nature of strain-induced dislocation structures predicated in previous works. Moreover, it encompasses the evolution of the strain rate during all stages of creep, including the tertiary one. Creep data from Al99.8% and Al3.85%Mg tested at different temperatures and stresses are used to validate the proposed ideas: it is found that different creep stages present different diffusion characters, and therefore different dislocation motion character.
The time-dependent Schrödinger equation in non-integer dimensions for constrained quantum motion
(2020)
We propose a theoretical model, based on a generalized Schroedinger equation, to study the behavior of a constrained quantum system in non-integer, lower than two-dimensional space. The non-integer dimensional space is formed as a product space X x Y, comprising x-coordinate with a Hausdorff measure of dimension alpha(1) = D -1 (1 < D < 2) and y-coordinate with the Lebesgue measure of dimension of length (alpha(2) = 1). Geometric constraints are set at y = 0. Two different approaches to find the Green's function are employed, both giving the same form in terms of the Fox H-function. For D = 2, the solution for two-dimensional quantum motion on a comb is recovered. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
This work demonstrates the production of high-performing p- type and n-type hybrid AgxTe/poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiopene):polystyrene sulfonic acid (PE-DOT:PSS) thermoelectric materials from the same Te/PEDOT:PSS parent structure during aqueous-based synthesis. All samples were solution-processed and analyzed in thin- film architectures. We were able to demonstrate a power factor of 44 mu W m(-1) K-2 for our highest-performing n-type material. In addition, we were also able to realize a 68% improvement in the power factor of our p-type compositions relative to the parent structure through manipulation of the inorganic nanostructure composition. We demonstrate control over the thermoelectric properties by varying the stoichiometry of AgxTe nanoparticles in AgxTe/PEDOT:PSS hybrid materials via a topotactic chemical transformation process at room temperature. This process offers a simple, low-temperature, and cost-effective route toward the production of both efficient n-type and p-type hybrid thermoelectric materials.
Using SXRR to probe the nature of discontinuities in SLM additive manufactured inconel 718 specimens
(2020)
The utilization of additive manufacturing (AM) to fabricate robust structural components relies on understanding the nature of internal anomalies or discontinuities, which can compromise the structural integrity. While some discontinuities in AM microstructures stem from similar mechanisms as observed in more traditional processes such as casting, others are unique to the AM process. Discontinuities in AM are challenging to detect, due to their submicron size and orientation dependency. Toward the goal of improving structural integrity, minimizing discontinuities in an AM build requires an understanding of the mechanisms of formation to mitigate their occurrence. This study utilizes various techniques to evaluate the shape, size, nature and distribution of discontinuities in AM Inconel 718, in a non-hot isostatic pressed (HIPed) as-built, non-HIPed and direct age, and HIPed with two step age samples. Non-destructive synchrotron radiation refraction and transmission radiography (SXRR) provides additional information beyond that obtained with destructive optical microscopy. SXRR was able to distinguish between voids, cracks and lack of melt in, due to its sensitivity to the orientation of the discontinuity.
Salinization is a well-known problem in agricultural areas worldwide. In the last 20-30 yr, rising salinity in the upper, unconfined aquifer has been observed in the Freepsumer Meer, a grassland near the German North Sea coast. For investigating long-term development of salinity and water balance during 1961-2099, the one-dimensional Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant (SWAP) model was set up and calibrated for a soil column in the area. The model setup involves a deep aquifer as the source of salt through upward seepage. In the vertical salt transport equation, dispersion and advection are included. Six different regional outputs of statistical downscaling methods were used as climate scenarios. These comprise different rates of increasing surface temperature and different trends in seasonal rainfall. The simulation results exhibit opposing salinity trends for topsoil and deeper layers. Although projections of some scenarios entail decreasing salinities near the surface, most of them project a rise in subsoil salinity, with the strongest trends of up to +0.9 mg cm(-3) 100 yr(-1) at -65 cm. The results suggest that topsoil salinity trends in the study area are affected by the magnitude of winter rainfall trends, whereas high subsoil salinities correspond to low winter rainfall and high summer temperature. How these projected trends affect the vegetation and thereby future land use will depend on the future management of groundwater levels in the area.
Thought experiments involving gases and pistons, such as Maxwell's demon and Gibbs' mixing, are central to our understanding of thermodynamics. Here, we present a quantum thermodynamic thought experiment in which the energy transfer from two photonic gases to a piston membrane grows quadratically with the number of photons for indistinguishable gases, while it grows linearly for distinguishable gases. This signature of bosonic bunching may be observed in optomechanical experiments, highlighting the potential of these systems for the realization of thermodynamic thought experiments in the quantum realm.
We study populations of globally coupled noisy rotators (oscillators with inertia) allowing a nonequilibrium transition from a desynchronized state to a synchronous one (with the nonvanishing order parameter). The newly developed analytical approaches resulted in solutions describing the synchronous state with constant order parameter for weakly inertial rotators, including the case of zero inertia, when the model is reduced to the Kuramoto model of coupled noise oscillators. These approaches provide also analytical criteria distinguishing supercritical and subcritical transitions to the desynchronized state and indicate the universality of such transitions in rotator ensembles. All the obtained analytical results are confirmed by the numerical ones, both by direct simulations of the large ensembles and by solution of the associated Fokker-Planck equation. We also propose generalizations of the developed approaches for setups where different rotators parameters (natural frequencies, masses, noise intensities, strengths and phase shifts in coupling) are dispersed.
The escape from a potential well is an archetypal problem in the study of stochastic dynamical systems, representing real-world situations from chemical reactions to leaving an established home range in movement ecology. Concurrently, Levy noise is a well-established approach to model systems characterized by statistical outliers and diverging higher order moments, ranging from gene expression control to the movement patterns of animals and humans. Here, we study the problem of Levy noise-driven escape from an almost rectangular, arctangent potential well restricted by two absorbing boundaries, mostly under the action of the Cauchy noise. We unveil analogies of the observed transient dynamics to the general properties of stationary states of Levy processes in single-well potentials. The first-escape dynamics is shown to exhibit exponential tails. We examine the dependence of the escape on the shape parameters, steepness, and height of the arctangent potential. Finally, we explore in detail the behavior of the probability densities of the first-escape time and the last-hitting point.
Here, a promising approach for producing piezo-polymer transducers in a one-step process is presented. Using 3D-printing technology and polypropylene (PP) filaments, we are able to print a two-layered film structure with regular cavities of precisely controlled size and shape. It is found that the 3D-printed samples exhibit piezoelectric coefficients up to 200 pC/N, similar to those of other PP ferroelectrets, and their temporal and thermal behavior is in good agreement with those known of PP ferroelectrets. The piezoelectric response strongly decreases for applied pressures above 20 kPa, as the pressure in the air-filled cavities strongly influences the overall elastic modulus of ferroelectrets.
CuI has been recently rediscovered as a p-type transparent conductor with a high figure of merit. Even though many metal iodides are hygroscopic, the effect of moisture on the electrical properties of CuI has not been clarified. In this work, we observe a 2-fold increase in the conductivity of CuI after exposure to ambient humidity for 5 h, followed by slight long-term degradation. Simultaneously, the work function of CuI decreases by almost 1 eV, which can explain the large spread in the previously reported work function values. The conductivity increase is partially reversible and is maximized at intermediate humidity levels. On the basis of the large intragrain mobility measured by THz spectroscopy, we suggest that hydration of grain boundaries may be beneficial for the overall hole mobility.
Understanding the recombination dynamics of organic and perovskite solar cells has been a crucial prerequisite in the steadily increasing performance of these promising new types of photovoltaics. Surface recombination in particular has turned out to be one of the last remaining roadblocks, which specifically reduces the open circuit voltage. In this study, the relationship between the rate of surface recombination and the density of charge carriers is analyzed, revealing a cubic dependence between these two parameters. This hypothesis is then tested and verified with the recombination dynamics of an organic solar cell known to exhibit significant surface recombination and a high energy proton irradiated CH3NH3PbI3 pemvskite solar cell during white light illumination. Incidentally, these results can also explain recombination orders exceeding the commonly known threshold for bimolecular recombination that have been observed in some studies without the need for a charge carrier dependent bimolecular recombination coefficient.