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The Paris Climate Agreement aims to keep temperature rise well below 2 degrees C. This implies mitigation costs as well as avoided climate damages. Here we show that independent of the normative assumptions of inequality aversion and time preferences, the agreement constitutes the economically optimal policy pathway for the century. To this end we consistently incorporate a damage-cost curve reproducing the observed relation between temperature and economic growth into the integrated assessment model DICE. We thus provide an intertemporally optimizing cost-benefit analysis of this century's climate problem. We account for uncertainties regarding the damage curve, climate sensitivity, socioeconomic future, and mitigation costs. The resulting optimal temperature is robust as can be understood from the generic temperature-dependence of the mitigation costs and the level of damages inferred from the observed temperature-growth relationship. Our results show that the politically motivated Paris Climate Agreement also represents the economically favourable pathway, if carried out properly.
Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropogenic global warming. However, the impacts of their possible future disintegration on global mean temperature (GMT) and climate feedbacks have not yet been comprehensively evaluated. Here, we quantify this response using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity. Overall, we find a median additional global warming of 0.43 degrees C (interquartile range: 0.39-0.46 degrees C) at a CO2 concentration of 400 ppm. Most of this response (55%) is caused by albedo changes, but lapse rate together with water vapour (30%) and cloud feedbacks (15%) also contribute significantly. While a decay of the ice sheets would occur on centennial to millennial time scales, the Arctic might become ice-free during summer within the 21st century. Our findings imply an additional increase of the GMT on intermediate to long time scales. The disintegration of cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, mountain glaciers, Greenland and West Antarctica is associated with temperature and radiative feedbacks. In this work, the authors quantify these feedbacks and find an additional global warming of 0.43 degrees C.
Consequences of fluctuating microscopic conductivity in mean-field electrodynamics of turbulent fluids are formulated and discussed. If the conductivity fluctuations are assumed to be uncorrelated with the velocity fluctuations then only the turbulence-originated magnetic diffusivity of the fluid is reduced and the decay time of a large-scale magnetic field or the cycle times of oscillating turbulent dynamo models are increased. If, however, the fluctuations of conductivity and flow in a certain well-defined direction are correlated, an additional diamagnetic pumping effect results, transporting the magnetic field in the opposite direction to the diffusivity flux vector <eta'u'>. In the presence of global rotation, even for homogeneous turbulence fields, an alpha effect appears. If the characteristic values of the outer core of the Earth or the solar convection zone are applied, the dynamo number of the new alpha effect does not reach supercritical values to operate as an alpha(2)-dynamo but oscillating alpha Omega-dynamos with differential rotation are not excluded.
Professional knowledge is an important source of science teachers' actions in the classroom (e.g., personal professional content knowledge [pedagogical content knowledge, PCK] is the source of enacted PCK in the refined consensus model [RCM] for PCK). However, the evidence for this claim is ambiguous at best. This study applied a cross-lagged panel design to examine the relationship between professional knowledge and actions in one particular instructional situation: explaining physics. Pre- and post a field experience (one semester), 47 preservice physics teachers from four different universities were tested for their content knowledge (CK), PCK, pedagogical knowledge (PK), and action-related skills in explaining physics. The study showed that joint professional knowledge (the weighted sum of CK, PCK, and PK scores) at the beginning of the field experience impacted the development of explaining skills during the field experience (beta = .38**). We interpret this as a particular relationship between professional knowledge and science teachers' action-related skills (enacted PCK): professional knowledge is necessary for the development of explaining skills. That is evidence that personal PCK affects enacted PCK. In addition, field experiences are often supposed to bridge the theory-practice gap by transforming professional knowledge into instructional practice. Our results suggest that for field experiences to be effective, preservice teachers should start with profound professional knowledge.
More than half of Earth's freshwater resources are held by the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which thus represents by far the largest potential source for global sea-level rise under future warming conditions(1). Its long-term stability determines the fate of our coastal cities and cultural heritage. Feedbacks between ice, atmosphere, ocean, and the solid Earth give rise to potential nonlinearities in its response to temperature changes. So far, we are lacking a comprehensive stability analysis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet for different amounts of global warming. Here we show that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits a multitude of temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss is irreversible. Consistent with palaeodata(2)we find, using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model(3-5), that at global warming levels around 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, West Antarctica is committed to long-term partial collapse owing to the marine ice-sheet instability. Between 6 and 9 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, the loss of more than 70 per cent of the present-day ice volume is triggered, mainly caused by the surface elevation feedback. At more than 10 degrees of warming above pre-industrial levels, Antarctica is committed to become virtually ice-free. The ice sheet's temperature sensitivity is 1.3 metres of sea-level equivalent per degree of warming up to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels, almost doubling to 2.4 metres per degree of warming between 2 and 6 degrees and increasing to about 10 metres per degree of warming between 6 and 9 degrees. Each of these thresholds gives rise to hysteresis behaviour: that is, the currently observed ice-sheet configuration is not regained even if temperatures are reversed to present-day levels. In particular, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet does not regrow to its modern extent until temperatures are at least one degree Celsius lower than pre-industrial levels. Our results show that if the Paris Agreement is not met, Antarctica's long-term sea-level contribution will dramatically increase and exceed that of all other sources. <br /> Modelling shows that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits multiple temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss would become irreversible, and once melted, the ice sheet can regain its previous mass only if the climate cools well below pre-industrial temperatures.
Organic solar cells are currently experiencing a second golden age thanks to the development of novel non-fullerene acceptors (NFAs). Surprisingly, some of these blends exhibit high efficiencies despite a low energy offset at the heterojunction. Herein, free charge generation in the high-performance blend of the donor polymer PM6 with the NFA Y6 is thoroughly investigated as a function of internal field, temperature and excitation energy. Results show that photocurrent generation is essentially barrierless with near-unity efficiency, regardless of excitation energy. Efficient charge separation is maintained over a wide temperature range, down to 100 K, despite the small driving force for charge generation. Studies on a blend with a low concentration of the NFA, measurements of the energetic disorder, and theoretical modeling suggest that CT state dissociation is assisted by the electrostatic interfacial field which for Y6 is large enough to compensate the Coulomb dissociation barrier.
We consider several examples of dynamical systems demonstrating overlapping attractor and repeller. These systems are constructed via introducing controllable dissipation to prototypic models with chaotic dynamics (Anosov cat map, Chirikov standard map, and incompressible three-dimensional flow of the ABC-type on a three-torus) and ergodic non-chaotic behavior (skew-shift map). We employ the Kantorovich-Rubinstein-Wasserstein distance to characterize the difference between the attractor and the repeller, in dependence on the dissipation level.
Heterogeneous diffusion processes (HDPs) with space-dependent diffusion coefficients D(x) are found in a number of real-world systems, such as for diffusion of macromolecules or submicron tracers in biological cells. Here, we examine HDPs in quenched-disorder systems with Gaussian colored noise (GCN) characterized by a diffusion coefficient with a power-law dependence on the particle position and with a spatially random scaling exponent. Typically, D(x) is considered to be centerd at the origin and the entire x axis is characterized by a single scaling exponent a. In this work we consider a spatially random scenario: in periodic intervals ("layers") in space D(x) is centerd to the midpoint of each interval. In each interval the scaling exponent alpha is randomly chosen from a Gaussian distribution. The effects of the variation of the scaling exponents, the periodicity of the domains ("layer thickness") of the diffusion coefficient in this stratified system, and the correlation time of the GCN are analyzed numerically in detail. We discuss the regimes of superdiffusion, subdiffusion, and normal diffusion realisable in this system. We observe and quantify the domains where nonergodic and non-Gaussian behaviors emerge in this system. Our results provide new insights into the understanding of weak ergodicity breaking for HDPs driven by colored noise, with potential applications in quenched layered systems, typical model systems for diffusion in biological cells and tissues, as well as for diffusion in geophysical systems.
The present work offers an explanation on how the long-range interaction of dislocations influences their movement, and therefore the strain, during creep of metals. It is proposed that collective motion of dislocations can be described as a fractional Brownian motion. This explains the noisy appearance of the creep strain signal as a function of time. Such signal is split into a deterministic and a stochastic part. These terms can be related to two kinds of dislocation motions: individual and collective, respectively. The description is consistent with the fractal nature of strain-induced dislocation structures predicated in previous works. Moreover, it encompasses the evolution of the strain rate during all stages of creep, including the tertiary one. Creep data from Al99.8% and Al3.85%Mg tested at different temperatures and stresses are used to validate the proposed ideas: it is found that different creep stages present different diffusion characters, and therefore different dislocation motion character.
The time-dependent Schrödinger equation in non-integer dimensions for constrained quantum motion
(2020)
We propose a theoretical model, based on a generalized Schroedinger equation, to study the behavior of a constrained quantum system in non-integer, lower than two-dimensional space. The non-integer dimensional space is formed as a product space X x Y, comprising x-coordinate with a Hausdorff measure of dimension alpha(1) = D -1 (1 < D < 2) and y-coordinate with the Lebesgue measure of dimension of length (alpha(2) = 1). Geometric constraints are set at y = 0. Two different approaches to find the Green's function are employed, both giving the same form in terms of the Fox H-function. For D = 2, the solution for two-dimensional quantum motion on a comb is recovered. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.