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Mantle Flow as a Trigger for Subduction Initiation: A Missing Element of the Wilson Cycle Concept
(2017)
The classical Wilson Cycle concept, describing repeated opening and closing of ocean basins, hypothesizes spontaneous conversion of passive continental margins into subduction zones. This process, however, is impeded by the high strength of passive margins, and it has never occurred in Cenozoic times. Here using thermomechanical models, we show that additional forcing, provided by mantle flow, which is induced by neighboring subduction zones and midmantle slab remnants, can convert a passive margin into a subduction zone. Models suggest that this is a long-term process, thus explaining the lack of Cenozoic examples. We speculate that new subduction zones may form in the next few tens of millions of years along the Argentine passive margin and the U.S. East Coast. Mantle suction force can similarly trigger subduction initiation along large oceanic fracture zones. We propose that new subduction zones will preferentially originate where subduction zones were active in the past, thus explaining the remarkable colocation of subduction zones during at least the last 400 Myr.
Sedimentary basins in the interior of orogenic plateaus can provide unique insights into the early history of plateau evolution and related geodynamic processes. The northern sectors of the Iranian Plateau of the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone offer the unique possibility to study middle-late Miocene terrestrial clastic and volcaniclastic sediments that allow assessing the nascent stages of collisional plateau formation. In particular, these sedimentary archives allow investigating several debated and poorly understood issues associated with the long-term evolution of the Iranian Plateau, including the regional spatio-temporal characteristics of sedimentation and deformation and the mechanisms of plateau growth. We document that middle-late Miocene crustal shortening and thickening processes led to the growth of a basement-cored range (Takab Range Complex) in the interior of the plateau. This triggered the development of a foreland-basin (Great Pari Basin) to the east between 16.5 and 10.7Ma. By 10.7Ma, a fast progradation of conglomerates over the foreland strata occurred, most likely during a decrease in flexural subsidence triggered by rock uplift along an intraforeland basement-cored range (Mahneshan Range Complex). This was in turn followed by the final incorporation of the foreland deposits into the orogenic system and ensuing compartmentalization of the formerly contiguous foreland into several intermontane basins. Overall, our data suggest that shortening and thickening processes led to the outward and vertical growth of the northern sectors of the Iranian Plateau starting from the middle Miocene. This implies that mantle-flow processes may have had a limited contribution toward building the Iranian Plateau in NW Iran.
Soil properties show high heterogeneity at different spatial scales and their correct characterization remains a crucial challenge over large areas. The aim of the study is to quantify the impact of different types of uncertainties that arise from the unresolved soil spatial variability on simulated hydrological states and fluxes. Three perturbation methods are presented for the characterization of uncertainties in soil properties. The methods are applied on the soil map of the upper Neckar catchment (Germany), as an example. The uncertainties are propagated through the distributed mesoscale hydrological model (mHM) to assess the impact on the simulated states and fluxes. The model outputs are analysed by aggregating the results at different spatial and temporal scales. These results show that the impact of the different uncertainties introduced in the original soil map is equivalent when the simulated model outputs are analysed at the model grid resolution (i.e. 500 m). However, several differences are identified by aggregating states and fluxes at different spatial scales (by subcatchments of different sizes or coarsening the grid resolution). Streamflow is only sensitive to the perturbation of long spatial structures while distributed states and fluxes (e.g. soil moisture and groundwater recharge) are only sensitive to the local noise introduced to the original soil properties. A clear identification of the temporal and spatial scale for which finer-resolution soil information is (or is not) relevant is unlikely to be universal. However, the comparison of the impacts on the different hydrological components can be used to prioritize the model improvements in specific applications, either by collecting new measurements or by calibration and data assimilation approaches. In conclusion, the study underlines the importance of a correct characterization of uncertainty in soil properties. With that, soil maps with additional information regarding the unresolved soil spatial variability would provide strong support to hydrological modelling applications.
A hydrochemical approach to quantify the role of return flow in a surface flow-dominated catchment
(2017)
Stormflow generation in headwater catchments dominated by subsurface flow has been studied extensively, yet catchments dominated by surface flow have received less attention. We addressed this by testing whether stormflow chemistry is controlled by either (a) the event-water signature of overland flow, or (b) the pre-event water signature of return flow. We used a high-resolution hydrochemical data set of stormflow and end-members of multiple storms in an end-member mixing analysis to determine the number of end-members needed to explain stormflow, characterize and identify potential end-members, calculate their contributions to stormflow, and develop a conceptual model of stormflow. The arrangement and relative positioning of end-members in stormflow mixing space suggest that saturation excess overland flow (26-48%) and return flow from two different subsurface storage pools (17-53%) are both similarly important for stormflow. These results suggest that pipes and fractures are important flow paths to rapidly release stored water and highlight the value of within-event resolution hydrochemical data to assess the full range and dynamics of flow paths.
Temperature is a key factor controlling plant growth and vitality in the temperate climates of the mid-latitudes like in vast parts of the European continent. Beyond the effect of average conditions, the timings and magnitudes of temperature extremes play a particularly crucial role, which needs to be better understood in the context of projected future rises in the frequency and/or intensity of such events. In this work, we employ event coincidence analysis (ECA) to quantify the likelihood of simultaneous occurrences of extremes in daytime land surface temperature anomalies (LSTAD) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We perform this analysis for entire Europe based upon remote sensing data, differentiating between three periods corresponding to different stages of plant development during the growing season. In addition, we analyze the typical elevation and land cover type of the regions showing significantly large event coincidences rates to identify the most severely affected vegetation types. Our results reveal distinct spatio-temporal impact patterns in terms of extraordinarily large co-occurrence rates between several combinations of temperature and NDVI extremes. Croplands are among the most frequently affected land cover types, while elevation is found to have only a minor effect on the spatial distribution of corresponding extreme weather impacts. These findings provide important insights into the vulnerability of European terrestrial ecosystems to extreme temperature events and demonstrate how event-based statistics like ECA can provide a valuable perspective on environmental nexuses.
The Misho complex in Northwest Iran is a prominent topographic massif bounded by well known active faults. Our new structural analysis of this area indicates that faulting has important role in the exhumation of this complex. The conjugate orientation of the North and South Misho Faults caused uplift in the Misho and exhumation of the Precambrian crystalline basement. Our structural and stratigraphic data shows that rapid uplift could have been initiation since the 21-22 Ma and exhumation rate was about 0.16 to 0.24 km/Ma. To refine this age, we performed U/Pb analysis of detrital zircon from the Upper Red Formation using LA-ICP-MS. We conducted AFT analysis on 6 basement samples from the hanging wall and 1 sample from the Upper Red Formation in the footwall NMF. Uplift in the hanging wall of NMF led to resting of sample 916 marl. This geochronologic and thermochronologic data shows that exhumation in the MC is diachronously along strike and affected by faults. The phase of exhumation is documented in the study area and entire Iranian plateau is related to the final closure of the Neo-Tethys and northward motion of the Arabian Plate.
Scarce research about small European rivers from non-human impacted areas to determine their natural background state has been undertaken. During the annual hydrological cycle of 2008-9 the patterns of particulate supply (SPM, POC, PON, Al, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb, V, Zn) from the rivers Sor, Mera Landro, Lourido and Landoi to the Northern Galician Rias (SW Bay of Biscay) were tackled. No differences in the composition of the SPM were detected for the studied rivers regarding Al, Fe and POC but the relative percentage of particulate trace elements (PTE) discriminate the rivers. So, Cr, Co and Ni in the Lourido, and Landoi rivers, and Cu in the Mera River, are controlled by watershed minerals of Ortegal Geological Complex while for the rest rivers PTE are by granitic and Ollo de Sapo bedrock watershed. Therefore, the imprint of PTE in the parental rocks of the river basins is reflected on the coastal sediments of the Rias. The main process controlling the dynamics and variations of chemical elements in the particulate form is the river discharge. This fact exemplifies that these rivers presents a natural behavior not being highly influenced by anthropogenic activities.
Understanding how Earth-surface processes respond to past climatic perturbations is crucial for making informed predictions about future impacts of climate change on sediment "uxes. Sedimentary records provide the archives for inferring these processes, but their interpretation is compromised by our incomplete understanding of how sediment-routing systems respond to millennial-scale climate cycles. We analyzed seven sediment cores recovered from marine turbidite depositional sites along the Chile continental margin. The sites span a pronounced arid-to-humid gradient with variable relief and related sediment connectivity of terrestrial and marine environments. These sites allowed us to study event related depositional processes in different climatic and geomorphic settings from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present day. The three sites reveal a steep decline of turbidite deposition during deglaciation. High rates of sea-level rise postdate the decline in turbidite deposition. Comparison with paleoclimate proxies documents that the spatio-temporal sedimentary pattern rather mirrors the deglacial humidity decrease and concomitant warming with no resolvable lag times. Our results let us infer that declining deglacial humidity decreased "uvial sediment supply. This signal propagated rapidly through the highly connected systems into the marine sink in north-central Chile. In contrast, in south-central Chile, connectivity between the Andean erosional zone and the "uvial transfer zone probably decreased abruptly by sediment trapping in piedmont lakes related to deglaciation, resulting in a sudden decrease of sediment supply to the ocean. Additionally, reduced moisture supply may have contributed to the rapid decline of turbidite deposition. These different causes result in similar depositional patterns in the marine sinks. We conclude that turbiditic strata may constitute reliable recorders of climate change across a wide range of climatic zones and geomorphic conditions. However, the underlying causes for similar signal manifestations in the sinks may differ, ranging from maintained high system connectivity to abrupt connectivity loss. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Accurate time series representation of paleoclimatic proxy records is challenging because such records involve dating errors in addition to proxy measurement errors. Rigorous attention is rarely given to age uncertainties in paleoclimatic research, although the latter can severely bias the results of proxy record analysis. Here, we introduce a Bayesian approach to represent layer-counted proxy records - such as ice cores, sediments, corals, or tree rings - as sequences of probability distributions on absolute, error-free time axes. The method accounts for both proxy measurement errors and uncertainties arising from layer-counting-based dating of the records. An application to oxygen isotope ratios from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) record reveals that the counting errors, although seemingly small, lead to substantial uncertainties in the final representation of the oxygen isotope ratios. In particular, for the older parts of the NGRIP record, our results show that the total uncertainty originating from dating errors has been seriously underestimated. Our method is next applied to deriving the overall uncertainties of the Suigetsu radiocarbon comparison curve, which was recently obtained from varved sediment cores at Lake Suigetsu, Japan. This curve provides the only terrestrial radiocarbon comparison for the time interval 12.5-52.8 kyr BP. The uncertainties derived here can be readily employed to obtain complete error estimates for arbitrary radiometrically dated proxy records of this recent part of the last glacial interval.
High precipitation quantiles tend to rise with temperature, following the so-called Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) scaling. It is often reported that the CC-scaling relation breaks down and even reverts for very high temperatures. In our study, we investigate this reversal using observational climate data from 142 stations across Germany. One of the suggested meteorological explanations for the breakdown is limited moisture supply. Here we argue that, instead, it could simply originate from undersampling. As rainfall frequency generally decreases with higher temperatures, rainfall intensities as dictated by CC scaling are less likely to be recorded than for moderate temperatures. Empirical quantiles are conventionally estimated from order statistics via various forms of plotting position formulas. They have in common that their largest representable return period is given by the sample size. In small samples, high quantiles are underestimated accordingly. The small-sample effect is weaker, or disappears completely, when using parametric quantile estimates from a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) fitted with L moments. For those, we obtain quantiles of rainfall intensities that continue to rise with temperature.
We have analyzed the recently developed pan-European strong motion database, RESORCE-2012: spectral parameters, such as stress drop (stress parameter, Delta sigma), anelastic attenuation (Q), near surface attenuation (kappa(0)) and site amplification have been estimated from observed strong motion recordings. The selected dataset exhibits a bilinear distance-dependent Q model with average kappa(0) value 0.0308 s. Strong regional variations in inelastic attenuation were also observed: frequency-independent Q(0) of 1462 and 601 were estimated for Turkish and Italian data respectively. Due to the strong coupling between Q and kappa(0), the regional variations in Q have strong impact on the estimation of near surface attenuation kappa(0). kappa(0) was estimated as 0.0457 and 0.0261 s for Turkey and Italy respectively. Furthermore, a detailed analysis of the variability in estimated kappa(0) revealed significant within-station variability. The linear site amplification factors were constrained from residual analysis at each station and site-class type. Using the regional Q(0) model and a site-class specific kappa(0), seismic moments (M-0) and source corner frequencies f (c) were estimated from the site corrected empirical Fourier spectra. Delta sigma did not exhibit magnitude dependence. The median Delta sigma value was obtained as 5.75 and 5.65 MPa from inverted and database magnitudes respectively. A comparison of response spectra from the stochastic model (derived herein) with that from (regional) ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) suggests that the presented seismological parameters can be used to represent the corresponding seismological attributes of the regional GMPEs in a host-to-target adjustment framework. The analysis presented herein can be considered as an update of that undertaken for the previous Euro-Mediterranean strong motion database presented by Edwards and Fah (Geophys J Int 194(2):1190-1202, 2013a).
Pollination is a key ecosystem service. Pollinators, however, are in decline and their service is increasingly threatened. The decline is driven by several factors, most of which are related to agricultural management. However, the complexity of the landscape system, consisting of both cropped and non cropped areas, makes it difficult to address or even quantify the role of farming practices in pollinator abundance. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to improve our understanding of the relationships between pollinator abundance and their habitat use. We intend to identify and quantify the driving environmental factors that determine pollinator abundance in agricultural landscapes on the crop and landscape scale. These information helps us to design algorithms that can be used as a basis for predicting pollinator abundance on agricultural fields. To integrate varying environmental conditions data sampling was performed on farms in three different regions in Germany. Pollinators were classified into different groups with three aggregation levels. We observed crop parameters as well as landscape parameters in the areas surrounding fields in addition to temporal aspects. Generalized linear models (GLMs) were then calculated. Our results showed that both crop and landscape parameters affect pollinator abundance on agricultural fields. However, the explanatory power of the included parameters varied strongly among the particular pollinator groups and between aggregation levels. Furthermore, differentiation between species groups improves the explanatory power compared to models that are more aggregated. We also found that the temporal match between main activity periods of the particular pollinator groups and resource supply by the crop species is a key factor when analysing pollinator abundance. In conclusion, we demonstrated that the assessment and support of pollination services should be carried out with regard to individual pollinator groups. When studying pollinator abundance, the crop as well as the landscape scale should be addressed. A range of different habitat requirements and different activity periods of the pollinator groups must be covered to maintain pollination services, and therefore both diverse landscapes and diverse crop rotations are of crucial importance. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The fusion of hyperspectral imaging (HSI) sensor and airborne lidar scanner (ALS) data provides promising potential for applications in environmental sciences. Standard fusion approaches use reflectance information from the HSI and distance measurements from the ALS to increase data dimen-sionality and geometric accuracy. However, the potential for data fusion based on the respective intensity information of the complementary active and passive sensor systems is high and not yet fully exploited. Here, an approach for the rigorous illumination correction of HSI data, based on the radiometric cross-calibrated return intensity information of ALS data, is presented. The cross calibration utilizes a ray tracing-based fusion of both sensor measurements by intersecting their particular beam shapes. The developed method is capable of compensating for the drawbacks of passive HSI systems, such as cast and cloud shadowing effects, illumination changes over time, across track illumination, and partly anisotropy effects. During processing, spatial and temporal differences in illumination patterns are detected and corrected over the entire HSI wavelength domain. The improvement in the classification accuracy of urban and vegetation surfaces demonstrates the benefit and potential of the proposed HSI illumination correction. The presented approach is the first step toward the rigorous in-flight fusion of passive and active system characteristics, enabling new capabilities for a variety of applications.
Inherited rheological structures in the lithosphere are expected to have large impact on the architecture of continental rifts. The Turkana depression in the East African Rift connects the Main Ethiopian Rift to the north with the Kenya rift in the south. This region is characterized by a NW-SE trending band of thinned crust inherited from a Mesozoic rifting event, which is cutting the present-day N-S rift trend at high angle. In striking contrast to the narrow rifts in Ethiopia and Kenya, extension in the Turkana region is accommodated in subparallel deformation domains that are laterally distributed over several hundred kilometers. We present both analog experiments and numerical models that reproduce the along-axis transition from narrow rifting in Ethiopia and Kenya to a distributed deformation within the Turkana depression. Similarly to natural observations, our models show that the Ethiopian and Kenyan rifts bend away from each other within the Turkana region, thus forming a right-lateral step over and avoiding a direct link to form a continuous N-S depression. The models reveal five potential types of rift linkage across the preexisting basin: three types where rifts bend away from the inherited structure connecting via a (1) wide or (2) narrow rift or by (3) forming a rotating microplate, (4) a type where rifts bend towards it, and (5) straight rift linkage. The fact that linkage type 1 is realized in the Turkana region provides new insights on the rheological configuration of the Mesozoic rift system at the onset of the recent rift episode. Plain Language Summary The Turkana depression in the Kenya/Ethiopia borderland is most famous for its several million years old human fossils, but it also holds a rich geological history of continental separation. The Turkana region is a lowland located between the East African and Ethiopian domes because its crust and mantle have been stretched in a continent-wide rift event during Cretaceous times about 140-120 Ma ago. This thin lithosphere exerted paramount control on the dynamics of East African rifting in this area, which commenced around 15 Ma ago and persists until today. Combining analog "sandbox" experiments with numerical geodynamic modeling, we find that inherited rift structures explain the dramatic change in rift style from deep, narrow rift basins north and south of the Turkana area to wide, distributed deformation within the Turkana depression. The failed Cretaceous rift is also responsible for the eastward bend of the Ethiopian rift and the westward bend of the Kenyan rift when entering the Turkana depression, which generated the characteristic hook-shaped form of present-day Lake Turkana. Combing two independent modeling techniques-analog and numerical experiments-is a very promising approach allowing to draw robust conclusions about the processes that shape the surface of our planet.
Flood risk management in Europe and worldwide is not static but constantly in a state of flux. There has been a trend towards more integrated flood risk management in many countries. However, the initial situation and the pace and direction of change is very different in the various countries. In this paper, we will present a conceptual framework that seeks to explain why countries opt for different flood risk management portfolios. The developed framework utilises insights from a range of policy science concepts in an integrated way and considers, among others, factors such as geographical characteristics, the experience with flood disasters, as well as human behavioural aspects.
Understanding the evolution of continental deformation zones relies on quantifying spatial and temporal changes in deformation rates of tectonic structures. Along the eastern boundary of the Pamir-Tian Shan collision zone, we constrain secular variations of rock uplift rates for a series of five Quaternary detachment- and fault-related folds from their initiation to the modern day. When combined with GPS data, decomposition of interferometric synthetic aperture radar time series constrains the spatial pattern of surface and rock uplift on the folds deforming at decadal rates of 1-5mm/yr. These data confirm the previously proposed basinward propagation of structures during the Quaternary. By fitting our geodetic rates and previously published geologic uplift rates with piecewise linear functions, we find that gradual rate changes over >100kyr can explain the interferometric synthetic aperture radar observations where changes in average uplift rates are greater than similar to 1 mm/yr among different time intervals (similar to 10(1), 10(4-5), and 10(5-6) years).
Fluvial planation surfaces, such as straths, commonly serve as recorders of climatic and tectonic changes and are formed by the lateral erosion of rivers, a process that remains poorly understood. Here we present a study of kilometer-wide, fluvially eroded, low-relief surfaces on rapidly uplifting folds in the foreland of the southwestern Tian Shan. A combination of field work, digital elevation model analysis, and dating of fluvial deposits reveals that despite an arid climate and rapid average rock-uplift rates of 1-3mm/yr, rivers cut extensive (>1-2km wide) surfaces with typical height variations of <6m over periods of >2-6kyr. The extent of this beveling varies in space and time, such that different beveling episodes affect individual structures. Between times of planation, beveled surfaces are abandoned, incised, and deformed across the folds. In a challenge to models that link strath cutting and abandonment primarily to changes in river incision rates, we demonstrate that lateral erosion rates of antecedent streams crossing the folds have to vary by more than 1 order of magnitude to explain the creation of beveled platforms in the past and their incision at the present day. These variations do not appear to covary with climate variability and might be caused by relatively small (much less than an order of magnitude) changes in sediment or water fluxes. It remains uncertain in which settings variations in lateral bedrock erosion rates predominate over changes in vertical erosion rates. Therefore, when studying fluvial planation and strath terraces, variability of both lateral and vertical erosion rates should be considered.
High precipitation quantiles tend to rise with temperature, following the so-called Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling. It is often reported that the CC-scaling relation breaks down and even reverts for very high temperatures. In our study, we investigate this reversal using observational climate data from 142 stations across Germany. One of the suggested meteorological explanations for the breakdown is limited moisture supply. Here we argue that, instead, it could simply originate from undersampling. As rainfall frequency generally decreases with higher temperatures, rainfall intensities as dictated by CC scaling are less likely to be recorded than for moderate temperatures. Empirical quantiles are conventionally estimated from order statistics via various forms of plotting position formulas. They have in common that their largest representable return period is given by the sample size. In small samples, high quantiles are underestimated accordingly. The small-sample effect is weaker, or disappears completely, when using parametric quantile estimates from a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) fitted with L moments. For those, we obtain quantiles of rainfall intensities that continue to rise with temperature.