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Wealth and income distributions are known to feature country-specific Pareto exponents for their long power-law tails. To propose a rationale for this, we introduce an agent-based dynamic model and use Monte Carlo simulations to unveil the wealth distributions in closed and open economical systems. The standard money-exchange scenario is supplemented with the position-exchange agent dynamics that vitally affects the Pareto law. Specifically, in closed systems with position-exchange dynamics the power law changes to an exponential shape, while for open systems with traps the Pareto law remains valid.
Optical flow models as an open benchmark for radar-based precipitation nowcasting (rainymotion v0.1)
(2019)
Quantitative precipitation nowcasting (QPN) has become an essential technique in various application contexts, such as early warning or urban sewage control. A common heuristic prediction approach is to track the motion of precipitation features from a sequence of weather radar images and then to displace the precipitation field to the imminent future (minutes to hours) based on that motion, assuming that the intensity of the features remains constant (“Lagrangian persistence”). In that context, “optical flow” has become one of the most popular tracking techniques. Yet the present landscape of computational QPN models still struggles with producing open software implementations. Focusing on this gap, we have developed and extensively benchmarked a stack of models based on different optical flow algorithms for the tracking step and a set of parsimonious extrapolation procedures based on image warping and advection. We demonstrate that these models provide skillful predictions comparable with or even superior to state-of-the-art operational software. Our software library (“rainymotion”) for precipitation nowcasting is written in the Python programming language and openly available at GitHub (https://github.com/hydrogo/rainymotion, Ayzel et al., 2019). That way, the library may serve as a tool for providing fast, free, and transparent solutions that could serve as a benchmark for further model development and hypothesis testing – a benchmark that is far more advanced than the conventional benchmark of Eulerian persistence commonly used in QPN verification experiments.
During the last few decades, the rapid separation of the Small Aral Sea from the isolated basin has changed its hydrological and ecological conditions tremendously. In the present study, we developed and validated the hybrid model for the Syr Darya River basin based on a combination of state-of-the-art hydrological and machine learning models. Climate change impact on freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea for the projection period 2007-2099 has been quantified based on the developed hybrid model and bias corrected and downscaled meteorological projections simulated by four General Circulation Models (GCM) for each of three Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP). The developed hybrid model reliably simulates freshwater inflow for the historical period with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.72 and a Kling-Gupta efficiency of 0.77. Results of the climate change impact assessment showed that the freshwater inflow projections produced by different GCMs are misleading by providing contradictory results for the projection period. However, we identified that the relative runoff changes are expected to be more pronounced in the case of more aggressive RCP scenarios. The simulated projections of freshwater inflow provide a basis for further assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological and ecological conditions of the Small Aral Sea in the 21st Century.
OpenForecast
(2019)
The development and deployment of new operational runoff forecasting systems are a strong focus of the scientific community due to the crucial importance of reliable and timely runoff predictions for early warnings of floods and flashfloods for local businesses and communities. OpenForecast, the first operational runoff forecasting system in Russia, open for public use, is presented in this study. We developed OpenForecast based only on open-source software and data-GR4J hydrological model, ERA-Interim meteorological reanalysis, and ICON deterministic short-range meteorological forecasts. Daily forecasts were generated for two basins in the European part of Russia. Simulation results showed a limited efficiency in reproducing the spring flood of 2019. Although the simulations managed to capture the timing of flood peaks, they failed in estimating flood volume. However, further implementation of the parsimonious data assimilation technique significantly alleviates simulation errors. The revealed limitations of the proposed operational runoff forecasting system provided a foundation to outline its further development and improvement.
We construct eta- and rho-invariants for Dirac operators, on the universal covering of a closed manifold, that are invariant under the projective action associated to a 2-cocycle of the fundamental group. We prove an Atiyah-Patodi-Singer index theorem in this setting, as well as its higher generalisation. Applications concern the classification of positive scalar curvature metrics on closed spin manifolds. We also investigate the properties of these twisted invariants for the signature operator and the relation to the higher invariants.
We analyse the top tail of the wealth distribution in France, Germany, and Spain using the first and second waves of the Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS). Since top wealth is likely to be under-represented in household surveys, we integrate big fortunes from rich lists, estimate a Pareto distribution, and impute the missing rich. In addition to the Forbes list, we rely on national rich lists since they represent a broader base of the big fortunes in those countries. As a result, the top 1% wealth share increases notably for the three selected countries after imputing the top wealth. We find that national rich lists can improve the estimation of the Pareto coefficient in particular when the list of national USD billionaires is short.
Double Jeopardy
(2019)
The present study investigates whether secondary traumatization (i.e., family history of Holocaust survival and secondary exposure to captivity) is implicated in subjective age. Women exposed to different levels of secondary traumatization (N = 177) were assessed. Analyses of variance (ANOVAs) revealed that a Holocaust background and husband's captivity had a marginally significant positive effect on age appearance. Women with a Holocaust background whose husbands were held captive reported older interest age, indicating double jeopardy for older subjective age when two sources of secondary traumatization are present. A similar trend existed for behavior age. Possible explanations for these complex findings of risk and resilience are discussed.
While the underlying mechanisms of Parkinson’s disease (PD) are still insufficiently studied, a complex interaction between genetic and environmental factors is emphasized. Nevertheless, the role of the essential trace element zinc (Zn) in this regard remains controversial. In this study we altered Zn balance within PD models of the versatile model organism Caenorhabditis elegans (C. elegans) in order to examine whether a genetic predisposition in selected genes with relevance for PD affects Zn homeostasis. Protein-bound and labile Zn species act in various areas, such as enzymatic catalysis, protein stabilization pathways and cell signaling. Therefore, total Zn and labile Zn were quantitatively determined in living nematodes as individual biomarkers of Zn uptake and bioavailability with inductively coupled plasma tandem mass spectrometry (ICP-MS/MS) or a multi-well method using the fluorescent probe ZinPyr-1. Young and middle-aged deletion mutants of catp-6 and pdr-1, which are orthologues of mammalian ATP13A2 (PARK9) and parkin (PARK2), showed altered Zn homeostasis following Zn exposure compared to wildtype worms. Furthermore, age-specific differences in Zn uptake were observed in wildtype worms for total as well as labile Zn species. These data emphasize the importance of differentiation between Zn species as meaningful biomarkers of Zn uptake as well as the need for further studies investigating the role of dysregulated Zn homeostasis in the etiology of PD.
Hot-electron-induced reactions are more and more recognized as a critical and ubiquitous reaction in heterogeneous catalysis. However, the kinetics of these reactions is still poorly understood, which is also due to the complexity of plasmonic nanostructures. We determined the reaction rates of the hot-electron-mediated reaction of 4-nitrothiophenol (NTP) on gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) using fractal kinetics as a function of the laser wavelength and compared them with the plasmonic enhancement of the system. The reaction rates can be only partially explained by the plasmonic response of the NPs. Hence, synchrotron X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) measurements of isolated NTP-capped AuNP clusters have been performed for the first time. In this way, it was possible to determine the work function and the accessible valence band states of the NP systems. The results show that besides the plasmonic enhancement, the reaction rates are strongly influenced by the local density of the available electronic states of the system.
Sensors composed of a porous silicon monolayer covered with a film of nanostructured gold layer, which provide two optical signal transduction methods, are fabricated and thoroughly characterized concerning their sensing performance. For this purpose, silicon substrates were electrochemically etched in order to obtain porous silicon monolayers, which were subsequently immersed in gold salt solution facilitating the formation of a porous gold nanoparticle layer on top of the porous silicon. The deposition process was monitored by reflectance spectroscopy, and the appearance of a dip in the interference pattern of the porous silicon layer was observed. This dip can be assigned to the absorption of light by the deposited gold nanostructures leading to localized surface plasmon resonance. The bulk sensitivity of these sensors was determined by recording reflectance spectra in media having different refractive indices and compared to sensors exclusively based on porous silicon or gold nanostructures. A thorough analysis of resulting shifts of the different optical signals in the reflectance spectra on the wavelength scale indicated that the optical response of the porous silicon sensor is not influenced by the presence of a gold nanostructure on top. Moreover, the adsorption of thiol-terminated polystyrene to the sensor surface was solely detected by changes in the position of the dip in the reflectance spectrum, which is assigned to localized surface plasmon resonance in the gold nanostructures. The interference pattern resulting from the porous silicon layer is not shifted to longer wavelengths by the adsorption indicating the independence of the optical response of the two nanostructures, namely porous silicon and nanostructured gold layer, to refractive index changes and pointing to the successful realization of two sensors in one spot.
This study investigates the effect of different anticonsumption constructs on consumer wellbeing. The study assumes that people will only lower their level of consumption if doing so does not also lower personal wellbeing. More precisely, this research investigates how specific subtypes of sustainable anticonsumption (e.g., voluntary simplicity, collaborative consumption, and debt-free living) relate to different states of consumer's wellbeing (e.g., financial, psychosocial, and subjective wellbeing). This work also examines whether consumer empowerment can improve personal wellbeing and strengthen the anticonsumption wellbeing relationship. The results show that voluntarily foregoing consumption does not reduce wellbeing and consumer empowerment plays a significant role in supporting sustainable pathways to consumer wellbeing. This study reasons that empowerment improves consumer sovereignty, but may be detrimental for consumers heavily concerned about debt-free living. The present investigation concludes by proposing implications for public and consumer policymakers wishing to promote appropriate sustainable (anticonsumption) pathways to consumer wellbeing.
Quadruple-shape hydrogels
(2019)
The capability of directed movements by two subsequent shape changes could be implemented in shape-memory hydrogels by incorporation of two types of crystallizable side chains While in non-swollen polymer networks even more directed movements could be realized, the creation of multi-shape hydrogels is still a challenge. We hypothesize that a quadruple-shape effect in hydrogels can be realized, when a swelling capacity almost independent of temperature is generated, whereby directed movements could be enabled, which are not related to swelling. In this case, entropy elastic recovery could be realized by hydrophilic segments and the fixation of different macroscopic shapes by means of three semi-crystalline side chains generating temporary crosslinks. Monomethacrylated semi-crystalline oligomers were connected as side chains in a hydrophilic polymer network via radical copolymerization. Computer assisted modelling was utilized to design a demonstrator capable of complex shape shifts by creating a casting mold via 3D printing from polyvinyl alcohol. The demonstrator was obtained after copolymerization of polymer network forming components within the mold, which was subsequently dissolved in water. A thermally-induced quadruple-shape effect was realized after equilibrium swelling of the polymer network in water. Three directed movements were successfully obtained when the temperature was continuously increased from 5 degrees C to 90 degrees C with a recovery ratio of the original shape above 90%. Hence, a thermally-induced quadruple-shape effect as new record for hydrogels was realized. Here, the temperature range for the multi-shape effect was limited by water as swelling media (0 degrees C-100 degrees C), simultaneously distinctly separated thermal transitions were required, and the overall elasticity indispensable for successive deformations was reduced as result of partially chain segment orientation induced by swelling in water. Conclusively the challenges for penta- or hexa-shape gels are the design of systems enabling higher elastic deformability and covering a larger temperature range by switching to a different solvent.
Shape-memory polymer actuators often contain crystallizable polyester segments. Here, the influence of accelerated hydrolytic degradation on the actuation performance in copolymer networks based on oligo(epsilon-caprolactone) dimethacrylate (OCL) and n-butyl acrylate is studied The semi-crystalline OCL was utilized as crosslinker with molecular weights of 2.3 and 15.2 kg.mol(-1) (ratio: 1:1 wt%) and n-butyl acrylate (25 wt% relative to OCL content) acted as softening agent creating the polymer main chain segments within the network architecture. The copolymer networks were programmed by 50% elongation and were degraded by means of alkaline hydrolysis utilizing sodium hydroxide solution (pH = 13). Experiments were performed in the range of the broad melting range of the actuators at 40 degrees C. The degradation of test specimen was monitored by the sample mass, which was reduced by 25 wt% within 105 d .45 degradation products, fragments of OCL with molecular masses ranging from 400 to 50.000 g.mol(-1) could be detected by NMR spectroscopy and GPC measurements. The cleavage of ester groups included in OCL segments resulted in a decrease of the melting temperature (T-m) related to the actuator domains (amorphous at the temperature of degradation) and simultaneously, the T-m associated to the skeleton domain was increased (semi-crystalline at the temperature of degradation). The alkaline hydrolysis decreased the polymer chain orientation of OCL domains until a random alignment of crystalline domains was obtained. This result was confirmed by cyclic thermomechanical actuation tests. The performance of directed movements decreased almost linearly as function of degradation time resulting in the loss of functionality when the orientation of polymer chains disappeared. Here, actuators were able to provide reversible movements until 91 d when the accelerated bulk degradation procedure using alkaline hydrolysis (pH = 13) was applied. Accordingly, a lifetime of more than one year can be guaranteed under physiological conditions (pH = 7.4) when, e.g., artificial muscles for biomimetic robots as potential application for these kind of shape-memory polymer actuators will be addressed.
The removal, redistribution, and transient storage of sediments in tectonically active mountain belts is thought to exert a first-order control on shallow crustal stresses, fault activity, and hence on the spatiotemporal pattern of regional deformation processes. Accordingly, sediment loading and unloading cycles in intermontane sedimentary basins may inhibit or promote intrabasinal faulting, respectively, but unambiguous evidence for this potential link has been elusive so far. Here we combine 2D numerical experiments that simulate contractional deformation in a broken-foreland setting (i.e., a foreland where shortening is diachronously absorbed by spatially disparate, reverse faults uplifting basement blocks) with field data from intermontane basins in the NW Argentine Andes. Our modeling results suggest that thicker sedimentary fills (>0.7-1.0 km) may suppress basinal faulting processes, while thinner fills (<0.7 km) tend to delay faulting. Conversely, the removal of sedimentary loads via fluvial incision and basin excavation promotes renewed intrabasinal faulting. These results help to better understand the tectono-sedimentary history of intermontane basins that straddle the eastern border of the Andean Plateau in northwestern Argentina. For example, the Santa Maria and the Humahuaca basins record intrabasinal deformation during or after sediment unloading, while the Quebrada del Toro Basin reflects the suppression of intrabasinal faulting due to loading by coarse conglomerates. We conclude that sedimentary loading and unloading cycles may exert a fundamental control on spatiotemporal deformation patterns in intermontane basins of tectonically active broken forelands. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
On a smooth complete Riemannian spin manifold with smooth compact boundary, we demonstrate that Atiyah-Singer Dirac operator in depends Riesz continuously on perturbations of local boundary conditions The Lipschitz bound for the map depends on Lipschitz smoothness and ellipticity of and bounds on Ricci curvature and its first derivatives as well as a lower bound on injectivity radius away from a compact neighbourhood of the boundary. More generally, we prove perturbation estimates for functional calculi of elliptic operators on manifolds with local boundary conditions.
Recent years have seen a considerable broadening of the ambitions in urban sustainability policy-making. With its Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 11 Making cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable, the 2030 Agenda stresses the critical role of cities in achieving sustainable development. In the context of SDG17 on partnerships, emphasis is also placed on the role of researchers and other scientific actors as change agents in the sustainability transformation. Against this backdrop, this article sheds light on different pathways through which science can contribute to urban sustainability. In particular, we discern four forms of science-policy-society interactions as key vectors: 1. sharing knowledge and providing scientific input to urban sustainability policy-making; 2. implementing transformative research projects; 3. contributing to local capacity building; and 4. self-governing towards sustainability. The pathways of influence are illustrated with empirical examples, and their interlinkages and limitations are discussed. We contend that there are numerous opportunities for actors from the field of sustainability science to engage with political and societal actors to enhance sustainable development at the local level.
We present an analysis of two pulsating subdwarf B stars PHL 457 and EQ Psc observed during the K2 mission. The K2 light curves of both stars show variation consistent with irradiation of a cooler companion by the hot subdwarf. They also show higher frequency oscillations consistent with pulsation. Using new spectroscopic data, we measured the radial velocity, effective temperature, surface gravity, and helium abundance of both hot subdwarfs as a function of orbital phase. We confirm the previously published spectroscopic orbit of PHL 457, and present the first spectroscopic orbit of EQ Psc. The orbital periods are 0.313 and 0.801 d, respectively. For EQPsc, we find a strong correlation between T-eff and orbital phase, due to contribution of light from the irradiated companion. We calculated amplitude spectra, identified significant pulsation frequencies, and searched for multiplets and asymptotic period spacings. By means of multiplets and period spacing, we identified the degrees of several pulsation modes in each star. The g-mode multiplets indicate subsynchronous core rotation with periods of 4.6 d (PHL 457) and 9.4 d (EQ Psc). We made spectral energy disctribution (SED) fits of PHL 457 and EQ Psc using available broad-band photometry and Gaia data. While the SED of PHL 457 shows no evidence of a cool companion, the SED for EQPsc clearly shows an infrared (IR) access consistent with a secondary with a temperature of about 6800K and a radius of 0.23 R-circle dot. This is the first detection of an IR access in any sdB + dM binary.
Above and underground hydrological processes depend on soil moisture (SM) variability, driven by different environmental factors that seldom are well-monitored, leading to a misunderstanding of soil water temporal patterns. This study investigated the stability of the SM temporal dynamics to different monitoring temporal resolutions around the border between two soil types in a tropical watershed. Four locations were instrumented in a small-scale watershed (5.84 km(2)) within the tropical coast of Northeast Brazil, encompassing different soil types (Espodossolo Humiluvico or Carbic Podzol, and Argissolo Vermelho-Amarelo or Haplic Acrisol), land covers (Atlantic Forest, bush vegetation, and grassland) and topographies (flat and moderate slope). The SM was monitored at a temporal resolution of one hour along the 2013-2014 hydrological year and then resampled a resolutions of 6 h, 12 h, 1 day, 2 days, 4 days, 7 days, and 15 days. Descriptive statistics, temporal variability, time-stability ranking, and hierarchical clustering revealed uneven associations among SM time components. The results show that the time-invariant component ruled SM temporal variability over the time-varying parcel, either at high or low temporal resolutions. Time-steps longer than 2 days affected the mean statistical metrics of the SM time-variant parcel. Additionally, SM at downstream and upstream sites behaved differently, suggesting that the temporal mean was regulated by steady soil properties (slope, restrictive layer, and soil texture), whereas their temporal anomalies were driven by climate (rainfall) and hydrogeological (groundwater level) factors. Therefore, it is concluded that around the border between tropical soil types, the distinct behaviour of time-variant and time-invariant components of SM time series reflects different combinations of their soil properties.