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Institute
- Institut für Geowissenschaften (237) (remove)
In this study, we analyze interactions in lake and lake catchment systems of a continuous permafrost area. We assessed colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) absorption at 440 nm (a(440)(CDOM)) and absorption slope (S300-500) in lakes using field sampling and optical remote sensing data for an area of 350 km(2) in Central Yamal, Siberia. Applying a CDOM algorithm (ratio of green and red band reflectance) for two high spatial resolution multispectral GeoEye-1 and Worldview-2 satellite images, we were able to extrapolate the a()(CDOM) data from 18 lakes sampled in the field to 356 lakes in the study area (model R-2 = 0.79). Values of a(440)(CDOM) in 356 lakes varied from 0.48 to 8.35 m(-1) with a median of 1.43 m(-1). This a()(CDOM) dataset was used to relate lake CDOM to 17 lake and lake catchment parameters derived from optical and radar remote sensing data and from digital elevation model analysis in order to establish the parameters controlling CDOM in lakes on the Yamal Peninsula. Regression tree model and boosted regression tree analysis showed that the activity of cryogenic processes (thermocirques) in the lake shores and lake water level were the two most important controls, explaining 48.4% and 28.4% of lake CDOM, respectively (R-2 = 0.61). Activation of thermocirques led to a large input of terrestrial organic matter and sediments from catchments and thawed permafrost to lakes (n = 15, mean a(440)(CDOM) = 5.3 m(-1)). Large lakes on the floodplain with a connection to Mordy-Yakha River received more CDOM (n = 7, mean a(440)(CDOM) = 3.8 m(-1)) compared to lakes located on higher terraces.
Snow meltwaters account for most of the yearly water budgets of many catchments in High Mountain Asia (HMA). We examine trends in snow water equivalent (SWE) using passive microwave data (1987 to 2009). We find an overall decrease in SWE in HMA, despite regions of increased SWE in the Pamir, Kunlun Shan, Eastern Himalaya, and Eastern Tien Shan. Although the average decline in annual SWE across HMA (contributing area, 2641 x 10(3) km(2)) is low (average, -0.3%), annual SWE losses conceal distinct seasonal and spatial heterogeneities across the study region. For example, the Tien Shan has seen both strong increases in winter SWE and sharp declines in spring and summer SWE. In the majority of catchments, the most negative SWE trends are found in mid-elevation zones, which often correspond to the regions of highest snow-water storage and are somewhat distinct from glaciated areas. Negative changes in SWE storage in these mid-elevation zones have strong implications for downstream water availability.
This paper investigates the transferability of calibrated HBV model parameters under stable and contrasting conditions in terms of flood seasonality and flood generating processes (FGP) in five Norwegian catchments with mixed snowmelt/rainfall regimes. We apply a series of generalized (differential) split-sample tests using a 6-year moving window over (i) the entire runoff observation periods, and (ii) two subsets of runoff observations distinguished by the seasonal occurrence of annual maximum floods during either spring or autumn. The results indicate a general model performance loss due to the transfer of calibrated parameters to independent validation periods of -5 to -17%, on average. However, there is no indication that contrasting flood seasonality exacerbates performance losses, which contradicts the assumption that optimized parameter sets for snowmelt-dominated floods (during spring) perform particularly poorly on validation periods with rainfall-dominated floods (during autumn) and vice versa.
A geological transect across the suture separating northwestern South America from the Panama Arc helps document the provenance and thermal history of both crustal domains and the suture zone. During middle Miocene, strata were being accumulated over the suture zone between the Panama Arc and the continental margin. Integrated provenance analyses of those middle Miocene strata show the presence of mixed sources that includes material derived from the two major crustal domains: the old northwestern South American orogens and the younger Panama Arc. Coeval moderately rapid exhumation of Upper Cretaceous to Paleogene sediments forming the reference continental margin is suggested from our inverse thermal modeling. Strata within the suture zone are intruded by similar to 12 Ma magmatic arc-related plutons, marking the transition from a collisional orogen to a subduction-related one. Renewed late Miocene to Pliocene acceleration of the exhumation rates is the consequence of a second tectonic pulse, which is likely to be triggered by the onset of a flat-slab subduction of the Nazca plate underneath the northernmost Andes of Colombia, suggesting that late Miocene to Pliocene orogeny in the Northern Andes is controlled by at least two different tectonic mechanisms.
GrassPlot is a collaborative vegetation-plot database organised by the Eurasian Dry Grassland Group (EDGG) and listed in the Global Index of Vegetation-Plot Databases (GIVD ID EU-00-003). GrassPlot collects plot records (releves) from grasslands and other open habitats of the Palaearctic biogeographic realm. It focuses on precisely delimited plots of eight standard grain sizes (0.0001; 0.001;... 1,000 m(2)) and on nested-plot series with at least four different grain sizes. The usage of GrassPlot is regulated through Bylaws that intend to balance the interests of data contributors and data users. The current version (v. 1.00) contains data for approximately 170,000 plots of different sizes and 2,800 nested-plot series. The key components are richness data and metadata. However, most included datasets also encompass compositional data. About 14,000 plots have near-complete records of terricolous bryophytes and lichens in addition to vascular plants. At present, GrassPlot contains data from 36 countries throughout the Palaearctic, spread across elevational gradients and major grassland types. GrassPlot with its multi-scale and multi-taxon focus complements the larger international vegetationplot databases, such as the European Vegetation Archive (EVA) and the global database " sPlot". Its main aim is to facilitate studies on the scale-and taxon-dependency of biodiversity patterns and drivers along macroecological gradients. GrassPlot is a dynamic database and will expand through new data collection coordinated by the elected Governing Board. We invite researchers with suitable data to join GrassPlot. Researchers with project ideas addressable with GrassPlot data are welcome to submit proposals to the Governing Board.
The additional magnetic field produced by the ionospheric current system is a part of the Earth’s magnetic field. This current system is a highly variable part of a global electric circuit. The solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) interaction with the Earth’s magnetosphere is the external driver for the global electric circuit in the ionosphere. The energy is transferred via the field-aligned currents (FACs) to the Earth’s ionosphere. The interactions between the neutral and charged particles in the ionosphere lead to the so-called thermospheric neutral wind dynamo which represents the second important driver for the global current system. Both processes are components of the magnetosphere–ionosphere–thermosphere (MIT) system, which depends on solar and geomagnetic conditions, and have significant seasonal and UT variations.
The modeling of the global dynamic Earth’s ionospheric current system is the first aim of this investigation. For our study, we use the Potsdam version of the Upper Atmosphere Model (UAM-P). The UAM is a first-principle, time-dependent, and fully self-consistent numerical global model. The model includes the thermosphere, ionosphere, plasmasphere, and inner magnetosphere as well as the electrodynamics of the coupled MIT system for the altitudinal range from 80 (60) km up to the 15 Earth radii. The UAM-P differs from the UAM by a new electric field block. For this study, the lower latitudinal and equatorial electrodynamics of the UAM-P model was improved.
The calculation of the ionospheric current system’s contribution to the Earth’s magnetic field is the second aim of this study. We present the method, which allows computing the additional magnetic field inside and outside the current layer as generated by the space current density distribution using the Biot-Savart law. Additionally, we perform a comparison of the additional magnetic field calculation using 2D (equivalent currents) and 3D current distribution.
The pleistocenic landscape in North Europe, North Asia and North America is spotted with thousands of natural ponds called kettle holes. They are biological and biogeochemical hotspots. Due to small size, small perimeter and shallow depth biological and biogeochemical processes in kettle holes are closely linked to the dynamics and the emissions of the terrestrial environment. On the other hand, their intriguing high spatial and temporal variability makes a sound understanding of the terrestrial-aquatic link very difficult. It is presumed that intensive agricultural land use during the last decades has resulted in a ubiquitous high nutrient load. However, the water quality encountered at single sites highly depends on internal biogeochemical processes and thus can differ substantially even between adjacent sites. This study aimed at elucidating the interplay between external drivers and internal processes based on a thorough analysis of a comprehensive kettle hole water quality data set. To study the role of external drivers, effects of land use in the adjacent terrestrial environment, effects of vegetation at the interface between terrestrial and aquatic systems, and that of kettle hole morphology on water quality was investigated. None of these drivers was prone to strong with-in year variability. Thus temporal variability of spatial patterns could point to the role of internal biogeochemical processes. To that end, the temporal stability of the respective spatial patterns was studied as well for various solutes. All of these analyses were performed for a set of different variables. Different results for different solutes were then used as a source of information about the respective driving processes. In the Quillow catchment in the Uckermark region, about 100 km north of Berlin, Germany, 62 kettle holes have been regularly sampled since 2013. Kettle hole catchments were determined based on a groundwater level map of the uppermost aquifer. The catchments were not clearly related to topography. Spatial patterns of kettle hole water concentration of (earth) alkaline metals and chloride were fairly stable, presumably reflecting solute concentration of the uppermost aquifer. In contrast, spatial patterns of nutrients and redox-sensitive solutes within the kettle holes were hardly correlated between different sampling campaigns. Correspondingly, effects of season, hydrogeomorphic kettle hole type, shore vegetation or land use in the respective catchments were significant but explained only a minor portion of the total variance. It is concluded that internal processes mask effects of the terrestrial environment. There is some evidence that denitrification and phosphorus release from the sediment during frequent periods of hypoxia might play a major role. The latter seems to boost primary production occasionally. These processes do not follow a clear seasonal pattern and are still not well understood.
As an effort to reduce parameter uncertainties in constructing recurrence plots, and in particular to avoid potential artefacts, this paper presents a technique to derive artefact-safe region of parameter sets. This technique exploits both deterministic (incl. chaos) and stochastic signal characteristics of recurrence quantification (i.e. diagonal structures). It is useful when the evaluated signal is known to be deterministic. This study focuses on the recurrence plot generated from the reconstructed phase space in order to represent many real application scenarios when not all variables to describe a system are available (data scarcity). The technique involves random shuffling of the original signal to destroy its original deterministic characteristics. Its purpose is to evaluate whether the determinism values of the original and the shuffled signal remain closely together, and therefore suggesting that the recurrence plot might comprise artefacts. The use of such determinism-sensitive region shall be accompanied by standard embedding optimization approaches, e.g. using indices like false nearest neighbor and mutual information, to result in a more reliable recurrence plot parameterization.
The lack of process-based classification procedures may lead to unrealistic hyetograph design due to complex oscillation of rainfall depths when assimilated at high temporal resolutions. Four consecutive years of sub-hourly rainfall data were assimilated in three study areas (Guaraira, GEB, Sao Joao do Cariri, CEB, and Aiuaba, AEB) under distinct climates (very hot semi-arid and tropical wet). This study aimed to define rainfall events (for Minimum Inter-event Time, MIT, and Minimum Rainfall Depth, MRD, equal to 30 min and 1.016 mm, respectively), classify their hyetograph types (rectangular, R, unimodal with left-skewed, UL, right-skewed, UR, and centred peaks, UC, bimodal, B, and shapeless, SL), and compare their key rainfall properties (frequency, duration, depth, rate and peak). A rain pulse aggregation process allowed for reshaping SL-events for six different time spans varying from 2 to 30 min. The results revealed that the coastal area held predominantly R-events (64% events and 49% rainfall depth), in western semi-arid prevailed UL-events (57% events and 63% rainfall depth), whereas in eastern semi-arid mostly were R-events (61% events and 30% rainfall depth) similar to coastal area. It is concluded that each cloud formation type had important effects on hyetograph properties, differentiating them even within the same climate.
An overview is given on the current state of X-ray absorption measurements on silicate melts and glasses. The challenges, limitations, and achievements of analyzing X-ray absorption spectra measured in liquids to determine structural properties of major and minor elements in magmas are described, with particular focus on describing non-Gaussian pair distribution functions in highly disordered glasses and melts, measured at in situ conditions. This includes a discussion on the progress of combining experiments with data from molecular dynamics simulations. For the measurements at conditions of the deep Earth, various experimental approaches and necessities are discussed and two examples are described in more detail. Finally, the achievements and prospects are presented for measuring X-ray absorption spectra indirectly by X-ray Raman scattering.
Major Countries
(2018)
From precipitation to damage
(2018)
Flood risk assessments for large river basins often involve piecing together smaller-scale assessments leading to erroneous risk statements. We describe a coupled model chain for quantifying flood risk at the scale of 100,000 km(2). It consists of a catchment model, a 1D-2D river network model, and a loss model. We introduce the model chain and present two applications. The first application for the Elbe River basin with an area of 66,000 km(2) demonstrates that it is feasible to simulate the complete risk chain for large river basins in a continuous simulation mode with high temporal and spatial resolution. In the second application, RFM is coupled to a multisite weather generator and applied to the Mulde catchment with an area of 6,000 km(2). This approach is able to provide a very long time series of spatially heterogeneous patterns of precipitation, discharge, inundation, and damage. These patterns respect the spatial correlation of the different processes and are suitable to derive large-scale risk estimates. We discuss how the RFM approach can be transferred to the continental scale.
Identifying abrupt transitions is a key question in various disciplines. Existing transition detection methods, however, do not rigorously account for time series uncertainties, often neglecting them altogether or assuming them to be independent and qualitatively similar. Here, we introduce a novel approach suited to handle uncertainties by representing the time series as a time-ordered sequence of probability density functions. We show how to detect abrupt transitions in such a sequence using the community structure of networks representing probabilities of recurrence. Using our approach, we detect transitions in global stock indices related to well-known periods of politico-economic volatility. We further uncover transitions in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation which coincide with periods of phase locking with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Finally, we provide for the first time an ‘uncertainty-aware’ framework which validates the hypothesis that ice-rafting events in the North Atlantic during the Holocene were synchronous with a weakened Asian summer monsoon.
Stable isotope ratios delta O-18 and delta D in polar ice provide a wealth of information about past climate evolution. Snow-pit studies allow us to relate observed weather and climate conditions to the measured isotope variations in the snow. They therefore offer the possibility to test our understanding of how isotope signals are formed and stored in firn and ice. As delta O-18 and delta D in the snowfall are strongly correlated to air temperature, isotopes in the near-surface snow are thought to record the seasonal cycle at a given site. Accordingly, the number of seasonal cycles observed over a given depth should depend on the accumulation rate of snow. However, snow-pit studies from different accumulation conditions in East Antarctica reported similar isotopic variability and comparable apparent cycles in the delta O-18 and delta D profiles with typical wavelengths of similar to 20 cm. These observations are unexpected as the accumulation rates strongly differ between the sites, ranging from 20 to 80mmw.e.yr(-1) (similar to 6-21 cm of snow per year). Various mechanisms have been proposed to explain the isotopic variations individually at each site; however, none of these are consistent with the similarity of the different profiles independent of the local accumulation conditions. Here, we systematically analyse the properties and origins of delta O-18 and delta D variations in high-resolution firn profiles from eight East Antarctic sites. First, we confirm the suggested cycle length (mean distance between peaks) of similar to 20 cm by counting the isotopic maxima. Spectral analysis further shows a strong similarity between the sites but indicates no dominant periodic features. Furthermore, the appar-ent cycle length increases with depth for most East Antarctic sites, which is inconsistent with burial and compression of a regular seasonal cycle. We show that these results can be explained by isotopic diffusion acting on a noise-dominated isotope signal. The firn diffusion length is rather stable across the Antarctic Plateau and thus leads to similar power spectral densities of the isotopic variations. This in turn implies a similar distance between isotopic maxima in the firn profiles. Our results explain a large set of observations discussed in the literature, providing a simple explanation for the interpretation of apparent cycles in shallow isotope records, without invoking complex mechanisms. Finally, the results underline previous suggestions that isotope signals in single ice cores from low-accumulation regions have a small signal-to-noise ratio and thus likely do not allow the reconstruction of interannual to decadal climate variations.
The Northern Central Iranian Micro-continent (CIM) represents Neotethys-related oceanic crust remnants, emplaced due to convergence between CIM and Eurasia plates during Eocene. Mafic and ultramafic units are exposed along the northern part of the CIM in the Sabzevar area. The geology and field relation of Sabzevar ophiolite indicate northward subduction of the Sabzevar basin. The average whole rock chemistry of mafic (gabbros) and ultramafic samples (lherzolite, harzburgite and dunite) is characterized by a range of MgO of 11.16-31.88, CaO 5.22-11.53 and Al2O3 2.77-14.57, respectively. Low LREE/HREE ratio of ultramafic samples is accompanied by enrichment of large ion lithophile elements (LILE) such as Sr, Pb and K. Mafic samples show two distinct groups with low and high LREE/HREE ratios. The spider diagram of mafic samples indicates enrichment in Sr, Pb and K and depletion in REE. Petrological and geochemical evidence and field relations show that the mafic rocks formed in a supra-subduction zone setting. Petrological studies reveal the role of fractional crystallization and assimilation effect by released fluids during subduction related generation of the Sabzevar mafic rocks. We suggest that the studied mafic rocks likely represent the basement of an initial island arc, which was generated in a supra-subduction zone setting within the Neotethys branch of the Sabzevar Ocean at the north of CIM. Copper, gold and chromite mineralizations are studied in relation to island arc setting and supra-subduction environment. Similarities in lithology, ophiolite age and mineralization between Sabzevar ophiolite and Bardaskan-Torbat Heydariyeh ophiolites testify for their separation due to rotation (or faulting) of the Central Iranian Micro-continent.
Reducing uncertainties about carbon cycling is important in the Arctic where rapid environmental changes contribute to enhanced mobilization of carbon. Here we quantify soil organic carbon (SOC) contents of permafrost soils along the Yukon Coastal Plain and determine the annual fluxes from coastal erosion. Different terrain units were assessed based on surficial geology, morphology, and ground ice conditions. To account for the volume of wedge ice and massive ice in a unit, SOC contents were reduced by 19% and sediment contents by 16%. The SOC content in a 1m(2) column of soil varied according to the height of the bluff, ranging from 30 to 662kg, with a mean value of 183kg. Forty-four per cent of the SOC was within the top 1m of soil and values varied based on surficial materials, ranging from 30 to 53kg C/m(3), with a mean of 41kg. Eighty per cent of the shoreline was erosive with a mean annual rate of change of -0.7m/yr. This resulted in a SOC flux per meter of shoreline of 132kg C/m/yr, and a total flux for the entire 282km of the Yukon coast of 35.5 x 10(6) kg C/yr (0.036 Tg C/yr). The mean flux of sediment per meter of shoreline was 5.3 x 10(3) kg/m/yr, with a total flux of 1,832 x 10(6)kg/yr (1.832 Tg/yr). Sedimentation rates indicate that approximately 13% of the eroded carbon was sequestered in nearshore sediments, where the overwhelming majority of organic carbon was of terrestrial origin. Plain Language Summary The oceans help slow the buildup of carbon dioxide (CO2) because they absorb much of this greenhouse gas. However, if carbon from other sources is added to the oceans, it can affect their ability to absorb atmospheric CO2. Our study examines the organic carbon added to the Canadian Beaufort Sea from eroding permafrost along the Yukon coast, a region quite vulnerable to erosion. Understanding carbon cycling in this area is important because environmental changes in the Arctic such as longer open water seasons, rising sea levels, and warmer air, water and soil temperatures are likely to increase coastal erosion and, thus, carbon fluxes to the sea. We measured the carbon in different types of permafrost soils and applied corrections to account for the volume taken up by various types of ground ice. By determining how quickly the shoreline is eroding, we assessed how much organic carbon is being transferred to the ocean each year. Our results show that 36 x 10(6) kg of carbon is added annually from this section of the coast. If we extrapolate these results to other coastal areas along the Canadian Beaufort Sea, the flux of organic carbon is nearly 3 times what was previously thought.
Previous thermomechanical modeling studies indicated that variations in the temperature and strength of the crystalline crust might be responsible for the juxtaposition of domains with thin-skinned and thick-skinned crustal deformation along strike the foreland of the central Andes. However, there is no evidence supporting this hypothesis from data-integrative models. We aim to derive the density structure of the lithosphere by means of integrated 3-D density modeling, in order to provide a new basis for discussions of compositional variations within the crust and for future thermal and rheological modeling studies. Therefore, we utilize available geological and geophysical data to obtain a structural and density model of the uppermost 200km of the Earth. The derived model is consistent with the observed Bouguer gravity field. Our results indicate that the crystalline crust in northern Argentina can be represented by a lighter upper crust (2,800kg/m(3)) and a denser lower crust (3,100kg/m(3)). We find new evidence for high bulk crustal densities >3,000kg/m(3) in the northern Pampia terrane. These could originate from subducted Puncoviscana wackes or pelites that ponded to the base of the crystalline crust in the late Proterozoic or indicate increasing bulk content of mafic material. The precise composition of the northern foreland crust, whether mafic or felsic, has significant implications for further thermomechanical models and the rheological behavior of the lithosphere. A detailed sensitivity analysis of the input parameters indicates that the model results are robust with respect to the given uncertainties of the input data.
In catastrophe risk modeling, a defensible estimation of impact severity and its likelihood of occurrence to a portfolio of assets can only be made through a rigorous treatment of uncertainty and the consideration of multiple alternative models. This approach, however, requires repeating lengthy calculations multiple times. To limit the demand on computational time and resources, a frequent practice in the industry is to estimate the distribution of earthquake-induced portfolio losses using a simulated catalog of events from a single representative mean ground motion hazard model for the region. This simplified approach is faster but may provide biased estimates of the likelihood of occurrence of the large and infrequent losses that drive many risk mitigation decisions. Investigation through case studies of different portfolios of assets located in the San Francisco Bay Region shows the potential for both a bias in the mean loss estimates and an underestimation of their central 70% interpercentile. We propose a simplified and computationally practical approach that reduces the bias in the mean portfolio loss estimates. This approach does not improve the estimate of the interpercentile range, however, a quantity of no direct practical use.
Arctic tundra ecosystems have experienced unprecedented change associated with climate warming over recent decades. Across the Pan-Arctic, vegetation productivity and surface greenness have trended positively over the period of satellite observation. However, since 2011 these trends have slowed considerably, showing signs of browning in many regions. It is unclear what factors are driving this change and which regions/landforms will be most sensitive to future browning. Here we provide evidence linking decadal patterns in arctic greening and browning with regional climate change and local permafrost-driven landscape heterogeneity. We analyzed the spatial variability of decadal-scale trends in surface greenness across the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska (similar to 60,000 km(2)) using the Landsat archive (1999-2014), in combination with novel 30 m classifications of polygonal tundra and regional watersheds, finding landscape heterogeneity and regional climate change to be the most important factors controlling historical greenness trends. Browning was linked to increased temperature and precipitation, with the exception of young landforms (developed following lake drainage), which will likely continue to green. Spatiotemporal model forecasting suggests carbon uptake potential to be reduced in response to warmer and/or wetter climatic conditions, potentially increasing the net loss of carbon to the atmosphere, at a greater degree than previously expected.
This study analyzes the influence of local and regional climatic factors on the stable isotopic composition of rainfall in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta (VMD) as part of the Asian monsoon region. It is based on 1.5 years of weekly rainfall samples. In the first step, the isotopic composition of the samples is analyzed by local meteoric water lines (LMWLs) and single-factor linear correlations. Additionally, the contribution of several regional and local factors is quantified by multiple linear regression (MLR) of all possible factor combinations and by relative importance analysis. This approach is novel for the interpretation of isotopic records and enables an objective quantification of the explained variance in isotopic records for individual factors. In this study, the local factors are extracted from local climate records, while the regional factors are derived from atmospheric backward trajectories of water particles. The regional factors, i.e., precipitation, temperature, relative humidity and the length of backward trajectories, are combined with equivalent local climatic parameters to explain the response variables delta O-18, delta H-2, and d-excess of precipitation at the station of measurement. The results indicate that (i) MLR can better explain the isotopic variation in precipitation (R-2 = 0.8) compared to single-factor linear regression (R-2 = 0.3); (ii) the isotopic variation in precipitation is controlled dominantly by regional moisture regimes (similar to 70 %) compared to local climatic conditions (similar to 30 %); (iii) the most important climatic parameter during the rainy season is the precipitation amount along the trajectories of air mass movement; (iv) the influence of local precipitation amount and temperature is not sig-nificant during the rainy season, unlike the regional precipitation amount effect; (v) secondary fractionation processes (e.g., sub-cloud evaporation) can be identified through the d-excess and take place mainly in the dry season, either locally for delta O-18 and delta H-2, or along the air mass trajectories for d-excess. The analysis shows that regional and local factors vary in importance over the seasons and that the source regions and transport pathways, and particularly the climatic conditions along the pathways, have a large influence on the isotopic composition of rainfall. Although the general results have been reported qualitatively in previous studies (proving the validity of the approach), the proposed method provides quantitative estimates of the controlling factors, both for the whole data set and for distinct seasons. Therefore, it is argued that the approach constitutes an advancement in the statistical analysis of isotopic records in rainfall that can supplement or precede more complex studies utilizing atmospheric models. Due to its relative simplicity, the method can be easily transferred to other regions, or extended with other factors. The results illustrate that the interpretation of the isotopic composition of precipitation as a recorder of local climatic conditions, as for example performed for paleorecords of water isotopes, may not be adequate in the southern part of the Indochinese Peninsula, and likely neither in other regions affected by monsoon processes. However, the presented approach could open a pathway towards better and seasonally differentiated reconstruction of paleoclimates based on isotopic records.
Sub-seasonal thaw slump mass wasting is not consistently energy limited at the landscape scale
(2018)
Predicting future thaw slump activity requires a sound understanding of the atmospheric drivers and geomorphic controls on mass wasting across a range of timescales. On sub-seasonal timescales, sparse measurements indicate that mass wasting at active slumps is often limited by the energy available for melting ground ice, but other factors such as rainfall or the formation of an insulating veneer may also be relevant. To study the sub-seasonal drivers, we derive topographic changes from single-pass radar interferometric data acquired by the TanDEM-X satellites. The estimated elevation changes at 12m resolution complement the commonly observed planimetric retreat rates by providing information on volume losses. Their high vertical precision (around 30 cm), frequent observations (11 days) and large coverage (5000 km(2)) allow us to track mass wasting as drivers such as the available energy change during the summer of 2015 in two study regions. We find that thaw slumps in the Tuktoyaktuk coastlands, Canada, are not energy limited in June, as they undergo limited mass wasting (height loss of around 0 cm day 1) despite the ample available energy, suggesting the widespread presence of early season insulating snow or debris veneer. Later in summer, height losses generally increase (around 3 cm day 1), but they do so in distinct ways. For many slumps, mass wasting tracks the available energy, a temporal pattern that is also observed at coastal yedoma cliffs on the Bykovsky Peninsula, Russia. However, the other two common temporal trajectories are asynchronous with the available energy, as they track strong precipitation events or show a sudden speed-up in late August respectively. The observed temporal patterns are poorly related to slump characteristics like the headwall height. The contrasting temporal behaviour of nearby thaw slumps highlights the importance of complex local and temporally varying controls on mass wasting.
Global patterns of declining temperature variability from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene
(2018)
Changes in climate variability are as important for society to address as are changes in mean climate(1). Contrasting temperature variability during the Last Glacial Maximum and the Holocene can provide insights into the relationship between the mean state of the climate and its variability(2,3). However, although glacial-interglacial changes in variability have been quantified for Greenland(2), a global view remains elusive. Here we use a network of marine and terrestrial temperature proxies to show that temperature variability decreased globally by a factor of four as the climate warmed by 3-8 degrees Celsius from the Last Glacial Maximum (around 21,000 years ago) to the Holocene epoch (the past 11,500 years). This decrease had a clear zonal pattern, with little change in the tropics (by a factor of only 1.6-2.8) and greater change in the mid-latitudes of both hemispheres (by a factor of 3.3-14). By contrast, Greenland ice-core records show a reduction in temperature variability by a factor of 73, suggesting influences beyond local temperature or a decoupling of atmospheric and global surface temperature variability for Greenland. The overall pattern of reduced variability can be explained by changes in the meridional temperature gradient, a mechanism that points to further decreases in temperature variability in a warmer future.
For attributing hydrological changes to anthropogenic climate change, catchment models are driven by climate model output. A widespread approach to bridge the spatial gap between global climate and hydrological catchment models is to use a weather generator conditioned on weather patterns (WPs). This approach assumes that changes in local climate are characterized by between-type changes of patterns. In this study we test this assumption by analyzing a previously developed WP classification for the Rhine basin, which is based on dynamic and thermodynamic variables. We quantify changes in pattern characteristics and associated climatic properties. The amount of between- and within-type changes is investigated by comparing observed trends to trends resulting solely from WP occurrence. To overcome uncertainties in trend detection resulting from the selected time period, all possible periods in 1901-2010 with a minimum length of 31 years are analyzed. Increasing frequency is found for some patterns associated with high precipitation, although the trend sign highly depends on the considered period. Trends and interannual variations of WP frequencies are related to the long-term variability of large-scale circulation modes. Long-term WP internal warming is evident for summer patterns and enhanced warming for spring/autumn patterns since the 1970s. Observed trends in temperature and partly in precipitation are mainly associated with frequency changes of specific WPs, but some amount of within-type changes remains. The classification can be used for downscaling of past changes considering this limitation, but the inclusion of thermodynamic variables into the classification impedes the downscaling of future climate projections.
Ice-rich yedoma-dominated landscapes store considerable amounts of organic carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) and are vulnerable to degradation under climate warming. We investigate the C and N pools in two thermokarst-affected yedoma landscapes - on Sobo-Sise Island and on Bykovsky Peninsula in the north of eastern Siberia. Soil cores up to 3m depth were collected along geomorphic gradients and analysed for organic C and N contents. A high vertical sampling density in the profiles allowed the calculation of C and N stocks for short soil column intervals and enhanced understanding of within-core parameter variability. Profile-level C and N stocks were scaled to the landscape level based on landform classifications from 5 m resolution, multispectral RapidEye satellite imagery. Mean landscape C and N storage in the first metre of soil for Sobo-Sise Island is estimated to be 20.2 kg C m(-2) and 1.8 kg N m(-2) and for Bykovsky Peninsula 25.9 kg C m(-2) and 2.2 kg N m(-2). Radiocarbon dating demonstrates the Holocene age of thermokarst basin deposits but also suggests the presence of thick Holoceneage cover layers which can reach up to 2 m on top of intact yedoma landforms. Reconstructed sedimentation rates of 0.10-0.57 mm yr(-1) suggest sustained mineral soil accumulation across all investigated landforms. Both yedoma and thermokarst landforms are characterized by limited accumulation of organic soil layers (peat). We further estimate that an active layer deepening of about 100 cm will increase organic C availability in a seasonally thawed state in the two study areas by similar to 5.8 Tg (13.2 kg C m(-2)). Our study demonstrates the importance of increasing the number of C and N storage inventories in ice-rich yedoma and thermokarst environments in order to account for high variability of permafrost and thermokarst environments in pan-permafrost soil C and N pool estimates.
Tracking changes in biodiversity through time requires an understanding of the relationship between modern diversity and how this diversity is preserved in the fossil record. Fossil pollen is one way in which past vegetation diversity can be reconstructed. However, there is limited understanding of modern pollen-vegetation diversity relationships from biodiverse tropical ecosystems. Here, pollen (palynological) richness and diversity (Hill N (1)) are compared with vegetation richness and diversity from forest and savannah ecosystems in the New World and Old World tropics (Neotropics and Palaeotropics). Modern pollen data were obtained from artificial pollen traps deployed in 1-ha vegetation study plots from which vegetation inventories had been completed in Bolivia and Ghana. Pollen counts were obtained from 15 to 22 traps per plot, and aggregated pollen sums for each plot were > 2,500. The palynological richness/diversity values from the Neotropics were moist evergreen forest = 86/6.8, semi-deciduous dry forest = 111/21.9, wooded savannah = 138/31.5, and from the Palaeotropics wet evergreen forest = 144/28.3, semi-deciduous moist forest = 104/4.4, forest-savannah transition = 121/14.1; the corresponding vegetation richness/diversity was 100/36.7, 80/38.7 and 71/39.4 (Neotropics), and 101/54.8, 87/45.5 and 71/34.5 (Palaeotropics). No consistent relationship was found between palynological richness/diversity, and plot vegetation richness/diversity, due to the differential influence of other factors such as landscape diversity, pollination strategy, and pollen source area. Palynological richness exceeded vegetation richness, while pollen diversity was lower than vegetation diversity. The relatively high global diversity of tropical vegetation was found to be reflected in the pollen rain.
Recent global warming is pronounced in high-latitude regions (e.g. northern Asia), and will cause the vegetation to change. Future vegetation trends (e.g. the "arctic greening") will feed back into atmospheric circulation and the global climate system. Understanding the nature and causes of past vegetation changes is important for predicting the composition and distribution of future vegetation communities. Fossil pollen records from 468 sites in northern and eastern Asia were biomised at selected times between 40 cal ka bp and today. Biomes were also simulated using a climate-driven biome model and results from the two approaches compared in order to help understand the mechanisms behind the observed vegetation changes. The consistent biome results inferred by both approaches reveal that long-term and broad-scale vegetation patterns reflect global- to hemispheric-scale climate changes. Forest biomes increase around the beginning of the late deglaciation, become more widespread during the early and middle Holocene, and decrease in the late Holocene in fringe areas of the Asian Summer Monsoon. At the southern and southwestern margins of the taiga, forest increases in the early Holocene and shows notable species succession, which may have been caused by winter warming at ca. 7 cal ka bp. At the northeastern taiga margin (central Yakutia and northeastern Siberia), shrub expansion during the last deglaciation appears to prevent the permafrost from thawing and hinders the northward expansion of evergreen needle-leaved species until ca. 7 cal ka bp. The vegetation-climate disequilibrium during the early Holocene in the taiga-tundra transition zone suggests that projected climate warming will not cause a northward expansion of evergreen needle-leaved species.
The behaviour of individuals, businesses, and government entities before, during, and immediately after a disaster can dramatically affect the impact and recovery time. However, existing risk-assessment methods rarely include this critical factor. In this Perspective, we show why this is a concern, and demonstrate that although initial efforts have inevitably represented human behaviour in limited terms, innovations in flood-risk assessment that integrate societal behaviour and behavioural adaptation dynamics into such quantifications may lead to more accurate characterization of risks and improved assessment of the effectiveness of risk-management strategies and investments. Such multidisciplinary approaches can inform flood-risk management policy development.
The effects of varying LiPF6 salt concentration and the presence of lithium bis(oxalate)borate additive on the electronic structure of commonly used lithium-ion battery electrolyte solvents (ethylene carbonate-dimethyl carbonate and propylene carbonate) have been investigated. X-ray Raman scattering spectroscopy (a non-resonant inelastic X-ray scattering method) was utilized together with a closed-circle flow cell. Carbon and oxygen K-edges provide characteristic information on the electronic structure of the electrolyte solutions, which are sensitive to local chemistry. Higher Li+ ion concentration in the solvent manifests itself as a blue-shift of both the pi* feature in the carbon edge and the carbonyl pi* feature in the oxygen edge. While these oxygen K-edge results agree with previous soft X-ray absorption studies on LiBF4 salt concentration in propylene carbonate, carbon K-edge spectra reveal a shift in energy, which can be explained with differing ionic conductivities of the electrolyte solutions.
This study refines the method for calibrating a glacio-hydrological model based on Hydrograph Partitioning Curves (HPCs), and evaluates its value in comparison to multidata set optimization approaches which use glacier mass balance, satellite snow cover images, and discharge. The HPCs are extracted from the observed flow hydrograph using catchment precipitation and temperature gradients. They indicate the periods when the various runoff processes, such as glacier melt or snow melt, dominate the basin hydrograph. The annual cumulative curve of the difference between average daily temperature and melt threshold temperature over the basin, as well as the annual cumulative curve of average daily snowfall on the glacierized areas are used to identify the starting and end dates of snow and glacier ablation periods. Model parameters characterizing different runoff processes are calibrated on different HPCs in a stepwise and iterative way. Results show that the HPC-based method (1) delivers model-internal consistency comparably to the tri-data set calibration method; (2) improves the stability of calibrated parameter values across various calibration periods; and (3) estimates the contributions of runoff components similarly to the tri-data set calibration method. Our findings indicate the potential of the HPC-based approach as an alternative for hydrological model calibration in glacierized basins where other calibration data sets than discharge are often not available or very costly to obtain.
Sulfur is an important component in volcanic gases at the Earth surface but also present in the deep Earth in hydrothermal or magmatic fluids. Little is known about the evolution of such fluids during ascent in the crust. A new optical cell was developed for in situ Raman spectroscopic investigations on fluids allowing abrupt or continuous changes of pressure up to 200 MPa at temperatures up to 750 degrees C. The concept is based on a flexible gold bellow, which separates the sample fluid from the pressure medium water. To avoid reactions between aggressive fluids and the pressure cell, steel components in contact with the fluid are shielded by gold foil. The cell was tested to study redox reactions in fluids using aqueous ammonium sulfate solutions as a model system. During heating at constant pressure of 130 MPa, sulfate ions transform first to HSO4- ions and then to molecular units such as H2SO4. Variation of pressure shows that the stability of sulfate species relies on fluid density, i.e., highly charged species are stable only in high-density fluids. Partial decomposition of ammonium was evident above 550 degrees C by the occurrence of a nitrogen peak in the Raman spectra. Reduced sulfur species were observed above 700 degrees C by Raman signals near 2590 cm(-1) assigned to HS- and H2S. No clear evidence for the formation of sulfur dioxide was found in contrary to previous studies on aqueous H2SO4, suggesting very reducing conditions in our experiments. Fluid-mineral interaction was studied by inserting into the cell a small, semi-open capsule filled with a mixture of pyrite and pyrrhotite. Oxidation of the sample assembly was evident by transformation of pyrite to pyrrhotite. As a consequence, sulfide species were observed in the fluid already at temperatures of similar to 600 degrees C.
Lithospheric plates move over the low-viscosity asthenosphere balancing several forces, which generate plate motions. We use a global 3-D lithosphere-asthenosphere model (SLIM3D) with visco-elasto-plastic rheology coupled to a spectral model of mantle flow at 300 km depth to quantify the influence of intra-plate friction and asthenospheric viscosity on plate velocities. We account for the brittle-ductile deformation at plate boundaries (yield stress) using a plate boundary friction coefficient to predict the present-day plate motion and net rotation of the lithospheric plates. Previous modeling studies have suggested that small friction coefficients (mu < 0.1, yield stress similar to 100 MPa) can lead to plate tectonics in models of mantle convection. Here we show that in order to match the observed present-day plate motion and net rotation, the frictional parameter must be less than 0.05. We obtain a good fit with the magnitude and orientation of the observed plate velocities (NUVEL-1A) in a no-net-rotation (NNR) reference frame with mu < 0.05 and a minimum asthenosphere viscosity of similar to 5 . 10(19) Pas to 10(20) Pas. Our estimates of net rotation (NR) of the lith-osphere suggest that amplitudes similar to 0.1-0.2 (degrees/Ma), similar to most observation-based estimates, can be obtained with asthenosphere viscosity cutoff values of similar to 10(19) Pas to 5 . 10(19) Pas and friction coefficients mu < 0.05.
The vertical distribution of chlorophyll in stratified lakes and reservoirs frequently exhibits a maximum peak deep in the water column, referred to as the deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM). DCMs are ecologically important hot spots of primary production and nutrient cycling, and their location can determine vertical habitat gradients for primary consumers. Consequently, the drivers of DCM structure regulate many characteristics of aquatic food webs and biogeochemistry. Previous studies have identified light and thermal stratification as important drivers of summer DCM depth, but their relative importance across a broad range of lakes is not well resolved. We analyzed profiles of chlorophyll fluorescence, temperature, and light during summer stratification from 100 lakes in the Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON) and quantified two characteristics of DCM structure: depth and thickness. While DCMs do form in oligotrophic lakes, we found that they can also form in eutrophic to dystrophic lakes. Using a random forest algorithm, we assessed the relative importance of variables associated with light attenuation vs. thermal stratification for predicting DCM structure in lakes that spanned broad gradients of morphometry and transparency. Our analyses revealed that light attenuation was a more important predictor of DCM depth than thermal stratification and that DCMs deepen with increasing lake clarity. DCM thickness was best predicted by lake size with larger lakes having thicker DCMs. Additionally, our analysis demonstrates that the relative importance of light and thermal stratification on DCM structure is not uniform across a diversity of lake types.
In this study, the spatial and temporal impacts of the Ataturk Dam on agro-meteorological aspects of the Southeastern Anatolia region have been investigated. Change detection and environmental impacts due to water-reserve changes in Ataturk Dam Lake have been determined and evaluated using multi-temporal Landsat satellite imageries and meteorological datasets within a period of 1984-2011. These time series have been evaluated for three time periods. Dam construction period constitutes the first part of the study. Land cover/use changes especially on agricultural fields under the Ataturk Dam Lake and its vicinity have been identified between the periods of 1984-1992. The second period comprises the 10-year period after the completion of filling up the reservoir in 1992. At this period, Landsat and meteorological time-series analyses are examined to assess the impact of the Ataturk Dam Lake on selected irrigated agricultural areas. For the last 9-year period from 2002 to 2011, the relationships between seasonal water-reserve changes and irrigated plains under changing climatic factors primarily driving vegetation activity (monthly, seasonal, and annual fluctuations of rainfall rate, air temperature, humidity) on the watershed have been investigated using a 30-year meteorological time series. The results showed that approximately 368 km(2) of agricultural fields have been affected because of inundation due to the Ataturk Dam Lake. However, irrigated agricultural fields have been increased by 56.3% of the total area (1552 of 2756 km(2)) on Harran Plain within the period of 1984-2011.
Intraplate earthquakes pose a significant seismic hazard in densely populated rift systems like the Lower Rhine Graben in Central Europe. While the locations of most faults in this region are well known, constraints on their seismogenic potential and earthquake recurrence are limited. In particular, the Holocene deformation history of active faults remains enigmatic. In an exposure excavated across the Schafberg fault in the southwestern Lower Rhine Graben, south of Untermaubach, in the epicentral region of the 1756 Duren earthquake (M (L) 6.2), we mapped a complex deformation zone in Holocene fluvial sediments. We document evidence for at least one paleoearthquake that resulted in vertical surface displacement of 1.2 +/- 0.2 m. The most recent earthquake is constrained to have occurred after 815 AD, and we have modeled three possible earthquake scenarios constraining the timing of the latest event. Coseismic deformation is characterized by vertical offset of sedimentary contacts distributed over a 10-m-wide central damage zone. Faults were identified where they fracture and offset pebbles in the vertically displaced gravel layers and fracture orientation is consistent with the orientation of the Schafberg fault. This study provides the first constraint on the most recent surface-rupturing earthquake on the Schafberg fault. We cannot rule out that this fault acted as the source of the 1756 Duren earthquake. Our study emphasizes the importance of, and the need for, paleoseismic studies in this and other intracontinental regions, in particular on faults with subtle geomorphic expression that would not typically be recognized as being potentially seismically active. Our study documents textural features in unconsolidated sediment that formed in response to coseismic rupturing of the underlying bedrock fault. We suggest that these features, e.g., abundant oriented transgranular fractures in their context, should be added to the list of criteria used to identify a fault as potentially active. Such information would result in an increase of the number of potentially active faults that contribute to seismic hazards of intracontinental regions.
Tillage erosion on arable land is a very important process leading to a net downslope movement of soil and soil constitutes. Tillage erosion rates are commonly in the same order of magnitude as water erosion rates and can be even higher, especially under highly mechanized agricultural soil management. Despite its prevalence and magnitude, tillage erosion is still understudied compared to water erosion. The goal of this study was to bring together experts using different techniques to determine tillage erosion and use the different results to discuss and quantify uncertainties associated with tillage erosion measurements. The study was performed in northeastern Germany on a 10 m by 50 m plot with a mean slope of 8%. Tillage erosion was determined after two sequences of seven tillage operations. Two different micro-tracers (magnetic iron oxide mixed with soil and fluorescent sand) and one macro-tracer (passive radio-frequency identification transponders (RFIDs), size: 4 x 22 mm) were used to directly determine soil fluxes. Moreover, tillage induced changes in topography were measured for the entire plot with two different terrestrial laser scanners and an unmanned aerial system for structure from motion topography analysis. Based on these elevation differences, corresponding soil fluxes were calculated. The mean translocation distance of all techniques was 0.57 m per tillage pass, with a relatively wide range of mean soil translocation distances ranging from 039 to 0.72 m per pass. A benchmark technique could not be identified as all used techniques have individual error sources, which could not be quantified. However, the translocation distances of the macro-tracers used were consistently smaller than the translocation distances of the micro-tracers (mean difference = -26 +/- 12%), which questions the widely used assumption of non-selective soil transport via tillage operations. This study points out that tillage erosion measurements, carried out under almost optimal conditions, are subject to major uncertainties that are far from negligible. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Whilst correlations have been made between the loess of Europe and China, deposits in Central Asia have remained largely overlooked by scientific investigation. The nature of the relationship between loess accumulation and palaeoclimate at the core of the Eurasian loess belt is particularly poorly understood. Here we reconstruct palaeoenvironmental change in Central Asia over the last 40 ky based on data from the Remizovka loess profile, in the northern foothills of the Tian Shan in southern Kazakhstan. Our interpretations are based on synthesis of chronostratigraphic, colour and magnetic susceptibility data, supported by chronostratigraphies from two additional sites nearby, Maibulak and Valikhanova. All three sites record substantially increased loess accumulation during late MIS 3 into the global last glacial maximum (gLGM). At Remizovka, increased loess flux occurred in two pulses at c. 38-25 ka and 22-18 ka, with the intervening period involving incipient pedogenesis. At Maibulak, two loess pulses at c. 40-30 ka and c. 28-22 ka are separated by a weakly developed paleosol which may date to the same time as pedogenesis at Remizovka. There is additional possible periglacial influence at Maibulak from c. 40-33.5 ka. At Valikhanova, there is some age overlap between paleosol and loess samples, but overall loess accumulation appears to have increased at c. 42-35 ka, c. 30 ka and the gLGM, with pedogenesis occurring >40 ka and c. 32 ka. At all three sites, Holocene loess accumulation is minimal; this period is characterised by pedogenesis. The chronostratigraphic variability between our sites highlights a need to interrogate climate-driven models for loess formation in piedmont environments. We interpret our data in the context of regional palaeoenvironmental archives to indicate that loess accumulation increased coeval with MIS 3 glacial advance in the Tian Shan, which was facilitated by northward expansion of the Asian monsoon and associated increase in precipitation. We hypothesise that increased ice volume impeded teleconnections with the temperate zone westerlies to the north; these were compressed against the piedmont resulting in increased wind strength and facilitating increased loess flux. Peak loess accumulation during the gLGM occurred under colder, drier climatic conditions, with reduced but sustained glacial ice volume and persistent influence of the westerlies in the arid Central Asian piedmont loess belt. In the absence of more widespread, reliably dated palaeoenvironmental records from the region, our data become of critical importance for understanding past environmental conditions in Central Asia, relative to elsewhere in Eurasia and globally.
Intercomparison of cosmic-ray neutron sensors and water balance monitoring in an urban environment
(2018)
Sensor-to-sensor variability is a source of error common to all geoscientific instruments that needs to be assessed before comparative and applied research can be performed with multiple sensors. Consistency among sensor systems is especially critical when subtle features of the surrounding terrain are to be identified. Cosmic-ray neutron sensors (CRNSs) are a recent technology used to monitor hectometre-scale environmental water storages, for which a rigorous comparison study of numerous co-located sensors has not yet been performed. In this work, nine stationary CRNS probes of type "CRS1000" were installed in relative proximity on a grass patch surrounded by trees, buildings, and sealed areas. While the dynamics of the neutron count rates were found to be similar, offsets of a few percent from the absolute average neutron count rates were found. Technical adjustments of the individual detection parameters brought all instruments into good agreement. Furthermore, we found a critical integration time of 6 h above which all sensors showed consistent dynamics in the data and their RMSE fell below 1% of gravimetric water content. The residual differences between the nine signals indicated local effects of the complex urban terrain on the scale of several metres. Mobile CRNS measurements and spatial simulations with the URANOS neutron transport code in the surrounding area (25 ha) have revealed substantial sub-footprint heterogeneity to which CRNS detectors are sensitive despite their large averaging volume. The sealed and constantly dry structures in the footprint furthermore damped the dynamics of the CRNS-derived soil moisture. We developed strategies to correct for the sealed-area effect based on theoretical insights about the spatial sensitivity of the sensor. This procedure not only led to reliable soil moisture estimation during dry-out periods, it further revealed a strong signal of intercepted water that emerged over the sealed surfaces during rain events. The presented arrangement offered a unique opportunity to demonstrate the CRNS performance in complex terrain, and the results indicated great potential for further applications in urban climate research.
Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs) are among the most active thermokarst landforms in the Arctic and deliver a large amount of material to the Arctic Ocean. However, their contribution to the organic carbon (OC) budget is unknown. We provide the first estimate of the contribution of RTSs to the nearshore OC budget of the Yukon Coast, Canada, and describe the evolution of coastal RTSs between 1952 and 2011 in this area. We (1) describe the evolution of RTSs between 1952 and 2011; (2) calculate the volume of eroded material and stocks of OC mobilized through slumping, including soil organic carbon (SOC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC); and (3) estimate the OC fluxes mobilized through slumping between 1972 and 2011. We identified RTSs using high- resolution satellite imagery from 2011 and geocoded aerial photographs from 1952 and 1972. To estimate the volume of eroded material, we applied spline interpolation on an airborne lidar dataset acquired in July 2013. We inferred the stocks of mobilized SOC and DOC from existing related literature. Our results show a 73% increase in the number of RTSs and 14% areal expansion between 1952 and 2011. In the study area, RTSs displaced at least 16.6 x 10(6) m(3) of material, 53% of which was ice, and mobilized 145.9 x 10(6) kg of OC. Between 1972 and 2011, 49 RTSs displaced 8.6 x 10(3) m(3) yr(-1) of material, adding 0.6% to the OC flux released by coastal retreat along the Yukon Coast. Our results show that the contribution of RTSs to the nearshore OC budget is non-negligible and should be included when estimating the quantity of OC released from the Arctic coast to the ocean.
Many hydrological models have been calibrated and validated using hydrographs alone. Because streamflow integrates water fluxes in space, many distributed hydrological models tend to have multiple feasible descriptions of hydrological processes. This equifinality usually leads to substantial prediction uncertainty. In this study, additional constraintsnamely, the spatial patterns of long-term average evapotranspiration (ET), shallow groundwater level, and land cover changewere used to investigate the reduction of equifinality and prediction uncertainty in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in the Wami River basin in Tanzania. The additional constraints were used in the set-up, parameter emulation and calibration of the SWAT model termed an improved hydrological model (IHM). The IHM was then compared with a classical hydrological model (CHM) that was also developed using the SWAT model but without additional constraints. In the calibration, the CHM used only the hydrograph, but the IHM used the hydrograph and the spatial pattern of long-term average ET as an additional constraint. The IHM produced a single, unique behavioural simulation, whereas the CHM produced many behavioural simulations that resulted in prediction uncertainty. The performance of the IHM with respect to the hydrograph was more consistent than that of the CHM, and the former clearly captured the mean behaviour of ET in the river basin. Therefore, we conclude that additional constraints substantially reduce equifinality and prediction uncertainty in a distributed hydrological model.
Several thousands of moraine-dammed and supraglacial lakes spread over the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, and some have grown rapidly in past decades due to glacier retreat. The sudden emptying of these lakes releases large volumes of water and sediment in destructive glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), one of the most publicised natural hazards to the rapidly growing Himalayan population. Despite the growing number and size of glacial lakes, the frequency of documented GLOFs is remarkably constant. We explore this possible reporting bias and offer a new processing chain for establishing a more complete Himalayan GLOF inventory. We make use of the full seasonal archive of Landsat images between 1988 and 2016, and track automatically where GLOFs left shrinking water bodies, and tails of sediment at high elevations. We trained a Random Forest classifier to generate fuzzy land cover maps for 2491 images, achieving overall accuracies of 91%. We developed a likelihood-based change point technique to estimate the timing of GLOFs at the pixel scale. Our method objectively detected ten out of eleven documented GLOFs, and another ten lakes that gave rise to previously unreported GLOFs. We thus nearly doubled the existing GLOF record for a study area covering similar to 10% of the HKH region. Remaining challenges for automatically detecting GLOFs include image insufficiently accurate co-registration, misclassifications in the land cover maps and image noise from clouds, shadows or ice. Yet our processing chain is robust and has the potential for being applied on the greater HKH and mountain ranges elsewhere, opening the door for objectively expanding the knowledge base on GLOF activity over the past three decades.
West Africa has been afflicted by droughts since the declining rains of the 1970s. Therefore, this study examines the characteristics of drought over the Niger River Basin (NRB), investigates the influence of the drought on the river flow, and projects the impacts of future climate change on drought. A combination of observation data and regional climate simulations of past (1986-2005) and future climates (2046-2065 and 2081-2100) were analyzed. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were used to characterize drought while the standardized runoff index (SRI) was used to quantify river flow. Results of the study show that the historical pattern of drought is consistent with previous studies over the Basin and most part of West Africa. RCA4 ensemble gives realistic simulations of the climatology of the Basin in the past climate. Generally, an increase in drought intensity and frequency are projected over NRB. The coupling between SRI and drought indices was very strong (P < 0.05). The dominant peaks can be classified into three distinct drought cycles with periods 1-2, 2-4, 4-8 years. These cycles may be associated with Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). River flow was highly sensitive to precipitation in the NRB and a 1-3 month lead time was found between drought indices and SRI. Under RCP4.5, changes in the SPEI drought frequency range from 1.8 (2046-2065) to 2.4 (2081-2100) month year(-1) while under RCP8.5, the change ranges from 2.2 (2046-2065) to 3.0 month year(-1) (2081-2100). Niger Middle sub-basin is likely to be mostly impacted in the future while the Upper Niger was projected to be least impacted. Results of this study may guide policymakers to evolve strategies to facilitate vulnerability assessment and adaptive capacity of the basin in order to minimize the negative impacts of climate change.
Salt marshes filter pollutants, protect coastlines against storm surges, and sequester carbon, yet are under threat from sea level rise and anthropogenic modification. The sustained existence of the salt marsh ecosystem depends on the topographic evolution of marsh platforms. Quantifying marsh platform topography is vital for improving the management of these valuable landscapes. The determination of platform boundaries currently relies on supervised classification methods requiring near-infrared data to detect vegetation, or demands labour-intensive field surveys and digitisation. We propose a novel, unsupervised method to reproducibly isolate salt marsh scarps and platforms from a digital elevation model (DEM), referred to as Topographic Identification of Platforms (TIP). Field observations and numerical models show that salt marshes mature into subhorizontal platforms delineated by subvertical scarps. Based on this premise, we identify scarps as lines of local maxima on a slope raster, then fill landmasses from the scarps upward, thus isolating mature marsh platforms. We test the TIP method using lidar-derived DEMs from six salt marshes in England with varying tidal ranges and geometries, for which topographic platforms were manually isolated from tidal flats. Agreement between manual and unsupervised classification exceeds 94% for DEM resolutions of 1 m, with all but one site maintaining an accuracy superior to 90% for resolutions up to 3 m. For resolutions of 1 m, platforms detected with the TIP method are comparable in surface area to digitised platforms and have similar elevation distributions. We also find that our method allows for the accurate detection of local block failures as small as 3 times the DEM resolution. Detailed inspection reveals that although tidal creeks were digitised as part of the marsh platform, unsupervised classification categorises them as part of the tidal flat, causing an increase in false negatives and overall platform perimeter. This suggests our method may benefit from combination with existing creek detection algorithms. Fallen blocks and high tidal flat portions, associated with potential pioneer zones, can also lead to differences between our method and supervised mapping. Although pioneer zones prove difficult to classify using a topographic method, we suggest that these transition areas should be considered when analysing erosion and accretion processes, particularly in the case of incipient marsh platforms. Ultimately, we have shown that unsupervised classification of marsh platforms from high-resolution topography is possible and sufficient to monitor and analyse topographic evolution.
A potential human footprint on Western Central African rainforests before the Common Era has become the focus of an ongoing controversy. Between 3,000 y ago and 2,000 y ago, regional pollen sequences indicate a replacement of mature rainforests by a forest-savannah mosaic including pioneer trees. Although some studies suggested an anthropogenic influence on this forest fragmentation, current interpretations based on pollen data attribute the "rainforest crisis" to climate change toward a drier, more seasonal climate. A rigorous test of this hypothesis, however, requires climate proxies independent of vegetation changes. Here we resolve this controversy through a continuous 10,500-y record of both vegetation and hydrological changes from Lake Barombi in Southwest Cameroon based on changes in carbon and hydrogen isotope compositions of plant waxes. delta C-13-inferred vegetation changes confirm a prominent and abrupt appearance of C-4 plants in the Lake Barombi catchment, at 2,600 calendar years before AD 1950 (cal y BP), followed by an equally sudden return to rainforest vegetation at 2,020 cal y BP. delta D values from the same plant wax compounds, however, show no simultaneous hydrological change. Based on the combination of these data with a comprehensive regional archaeological database we provide evidence that humans triggered the rainforest fragmentation 2,600 y ago. Our findings suggest that technological developments, including agricultural practices and iron metallurgy, possibly related to the large-scale Bantu expansion, significantly impacted the ecosystems before the Common Era.
One of the main purposes of detrital thermochronology is to provide constraints on the regional-scale exhumation rate and its spatial variability in actively eroding mountain ranges. Procedures that use cooling age distributions coupled with hypsometry and thermal models have been developed in order to extract quantitative estimates of erosion rate and its spatial distribution, assuming steady state between tectonic uplift and erosion. This hypothesis precludes the use of these procedures to assess the likely transient response of mountain belts to changes in tectonic or climatic forcing. Other methods are based on an a priori knowledge of the in situ distribution of ages to interpret the detrital age distributions. In this paper, we describe a simple method that, using the observed detrital mineral age distributions collected along a river, allows us to extract information about the relative distribution of erosion rates in an eroding catchment without relying on a steady-state assumption, the value of thermal parameters or an a priori knowledge of in situ age distributions. The model is based on a relatively low number of parameters describing lithological variability among the various sub-catchments and their sizes and only uses the raw ages. The method we propose is tested against synthetic age distributions to demonstrate its accuracy and the optimum conditions for it use. In order to illustrate the method, we invert age distributions collected along the main trunk of the Tsangpo-Siang-Brahmaputra river system in the eastern Himalaya. From the inversion of the cooling age distributions we predict present-day erosion rates of the catchments along the Tsangpo-Siang-Brahmaputra river system, as well as some of its tributaries. We show that detrital age distributions contain dual information about present-day erosion rate, i. e., from the predicted distribution of surface ages within each catchment and from the relative contribution of any given catchment to the river distribution. The method additionally allows comparing modern erosion rates to long-term exhumation rates. We provide a simple implementation of the method in Python code within a Jupyter Notebook that includes the data used in this paper for illustration purposes.
To evaluate the spatiotemporal variations of ground motions in northern Chile, we built a high-quality rock seismic acceleration database and an interface earthquakes catalog. Two ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) models for subduction zones have been tested and validated for the area. They were then used as backbone models to describe the time-space variations of earthquake frequency content (Fourier and response spectra). Consistent with previous studies of large subduction earthquakes, moderate interface earthquakes in northern Chile show an increase of the high-frequency energy released with depth. A regional variability of earthquake frequency content is also observed, which may be related to a lateral segmentation of the mechanical properties of the subduction interface. Finally, interface earthquakes show a temporal evolution of their frequency content in the earthquake sequence associated with the 2014 Iquique M-w 8.1 megathrust earthquake. Surprisingly, the change does not occur with the mainshock but is associated with an 8 month slow slip preceding the megathrust. Electronic Supplement: Strong-motion database.
In the Pan-African belt of the Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, crystallized melt inclusions (nanogranitoids) occur in garnet from ultramafic granulites. The granulites contain the peak assemblage pargasite+garnet+clinopyroxene with rare relict orthopyroxene and biotite, and retrograde symplectites at contacts between garnet and amphibole. Garnet contains two generations of melt inclusions. Type 1 inclusions, interpreted as primary, are isolated, < 10 mu m in size, and generally have negative crystal shapes. They contain kokchetavite, kumdykolite, and phlogopite, with quartz and zoisite as minor phases, and undevitrified glass was identified in one inclusion. Type 2 inclusions are < 30 mu m in size, secondary, and contain amphibole, feldspars, and zoisite. Type 2 inclusions appear to be the crystallization products of a melt that coexisted with an immiscible CO2-rich fluid. The nanogranitoids were re-homogenized after heating in a piston-cylinder in a series of four experiments to investigate their composition. The conditions ranged between 900 and 950 degrees C at 1.5-2.4 GPa. Type 1 inclusions are trachytic and ultrapotassic, whereas type 2 melts are dacitic to rhyolitic. Thermodynamic modeling of the ultramafic composition in the MnNCKFMASHTO system shows that anatexis occurred at the end of the prograde P-T path, between the solidus (at ca. 860 degrees C-1.4 GPa) and the peak conditions (at ca. 960 degrees C-1.7 GPa). The model melt composition is felsic and similar to that of type 1 inclusions, particularly when the melting degree is low (< 1 mol%), close to the solidus. However the modeling fails to reproduce the highly potassic signature of the melt and its low H2O content. The combination of petrology, melt inclusion study, and thermodynamic modeling supports the interpretation that melt was produced by anatexis of the ultramafic boudins near peak P-T conditions, and that type 1 inclusions contain the anatectic melt that was present during garnet growth. The felsic, ultrapotassic composition of the primary anatectic melts is compatible with low melting degrees in the presence of biotite and amphibole as reactants.
There has been recent progress in the understanding of the evolution of Quaternary climate. Simultaneously, there have been improvements in the understanding of glacial erosion processes, with better parameter constraints. Despite this, there remains much debate about whether or not the observed cooling over the Quaternary has driven an increase in glacial erosion rates. Most studies agree that the erosional response to climate change must be transient; therefore, the time scale of the climatic change and the response time of glacial erosion must be accounted for. Here we analyze the equations governing glacial erosion in a steadily uplifting landscape with variable climatic forcing and derive expressions for two fundamental response time scales. The first time scale describes the response of the glacier and the second one the glacial erosion response. We find that glaciers have characteristic time scales of the order of 10 to 10,000 years, while the characteristic time scale for glacial erosion is of the order of a few tens of thousands to a few million years. We then use a numerical model to validate the approximations made to derive the analytical solutions. The solutions show that short period forcing is dampened by the glacier response time, and long period forcing (>1 Myr) may be dampened by erosional response of glaciers when the rock uplift rates are high. In most tectonic and climatic conditions, we expect to see the strongest response of glacial erosion to periodic climatic forcing corresponding to Plio-Pleistocene climatic cycles. Finally, we use the numerical model to predict the response of glacial systems to the observed climatic forcing of the Quaternary, including, but not limited to, the Milankovich periods and the long-term secular cooling trend. We conclude that an increase of glacial erosion in response to Quaternary cooling is physically plausible, and we show that the magnitude of the increase depends on rock uplift and ice accumulation rates.
Due to a lack of well-preserved terrestrial climate archives, paleoclimate studies are sparse in southwestern Africa. Because there are no perennial lacustrine systems in this region, this study relies on a saline pan as an archive for climate information in the western Kalahari (Namibia). Molecular biological and biogeochemical analyses were combined to examine the response of indigenous microbial communities to modern and past climate-induced environmental conditions. The 16S rRNA gene high-throughput sequencing was applied to sediment samples from Omongwa pan to characterize the modern microbial diversity. Highest diversity of microorganisms, dominated by the extreme halophilic archaeon Halobacteria and by the bacterial phylum Gemmatimonadetes, was detected in the near-surface sediments of Omongwa pan. In deeper sections abundance and diversity significantly decreases and Bacillus, known to form spores, become dominant. Lipid biomarkers for living and past microbial life were analyzed to track the influence of climate variation on the abundance of microbial communities from the Last Glacial Maximum to Holocene time. Since water is an inevitable requirement for microbial life, in this dry region the abundance of past microbial biomarkers was evaluated to conclude on periods of increased paleoprecipitation in the past. The data point to a period of increased humidity in the western Kalahari during the Last Glacial to Holocene transition indicating a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone during this period. Comparison with results from a southwestern Kalahari pan suggests complex displacements of the regional atmospheric systems since the Last Glacial Maximum.
In this study, we developed an autodetection technique for the equatorial plasma depletions (EPDs) and their occurrence and depletion amplitudes based on in situ electron density measurements gathered by Swarm A satellite. For the first time, comparisons are made among the detected EPDs and their amplitudes with the loss of Global Positioning System (GPS) signal of receivers onboard Swarm A, and the Swarm Level-2 product, Ionospheric Bubble Index (IBI). It has been found that the highest rate of EPD occurrence takes place generally between 2200 and 0000 magnetic local time (MLT), in agreement with the IBI. However, the largest amplitudes of EPD are detected earlier at about 1900-2100 MLT. This coincides with the moment of higher background electron density and the largest occurrence of GPS signal loss. From a longitudinal perspective, the higher depletion amplitude is always witnessed in spatial bins with higher background electron density. At most longitudes, the occurrence rate of postmidnight EPDs is reduced compared to premidnight ones; while more postmidnight EPDs are observed at African longitudes. CHAMP observations confirm this point regardless of high or low solar activity condition. Further by comparing with previous studies and the plasma vertical drift velocity from ROCSAT-1, we suggest that while the F region vertical plasma drift plays a key role in dominating the occurrence of EPDs during premidnight hours, the postmidnight EPDs are the combined results from the continuing of former EPDs and newborn EPDs, especially during June solstice. And these newborn EPDs during postmidnight hours seem to be less related to the plasma vertical drift.
Quantifying rock weakening due to decreasing calcite mineral content by numerical simulations
(2018)
The quantification of changes in geomechanical properties due to chemical reactions is of paramount importance for geological subsurface utilisation, since mineral dissolution generally reduces rock stiffness. In the present study, the effective elastic moduli of two digital rock samples, the Fontainebleau and Bentheim sandstones, are numerically determined based on micro-CT images. Reduction in rock stiffness due to the dissolution of 10% calcite cement by volume out of the pore network is quantified for three synthetic spatial calcite distributions (coating, partial filling and random) using representative sub-cubes derived from the digital rock samples. Due to the reduced calcite content, bulk and shear moduli decrease by 34% and 38% in maximum, respectively. Total porosity is clearly the dominant parameter, while spatial calcite distribution has a minor impact, except for a randomly chosen cement distribution within the pore network. Moreover, applying an initial stiffness reduced by 47% for the calcite cement results only in a slightly weaker mechanical behaviour. Using the quantitative approach introduced here substantially improves the accuracy of predictions in elastic rock properties compared to general analytical methods, and further enables quantification of uncertainties related to spatial variations in porosity and mineral distribution.
The Timpa delle Murge ophiolite in the North Calabrian Unit is part of the Liguride Complex (southern Apennines). The study is concentrated on the gabbroic part of the ophiolite of the Pollino area. They preserve the high-grade ocean floor metamorphic and locally developed flaser textures under ocean floor conditions. The primary magmatic assemblages are clinopyroxene, plagioclase, and opaques. Brown hornblende is a late magmatic phase. Green hornblende, actinolite, albite, chlorite and epidote display metamorphic recrystallization under lower amphibolite facies conditions, followed by greenschist facies. The gabbros show subalkaline near to alkaline character with a tendency to a more calkalkaline trend. The normalization to primitive mantle and mid-ocean ridge basalt (N-MORB) compositions indicates a considerable depletion in Nb, P, Zr and Ti and an enrichment in Ba, Rb, K, Sr and Eu. This points to a mantle source, which is not compatible with a "normal" mid-ocean ridge situation. Rather, the gabbros are generated from a N-MORB-like melt with a strong crustal component, which was influenced by subduction related fluids and episodic melting during mid-ocean-ridge processes. Plausible geodynamic settings of the Timpa delle Murge gabbros are oceanic back-arc positions with embryonic MORB-activities. Similar slab contaminated magmatism is also known from the early stage of island arc formation in supra-subduction zone environments like the Izu-Bonin-Mariana island arc.
Management intensity modifies soil properties, e.g., organic carbon (C-org) concentrations and soil pH with potential feedbacks on plant diversity. These changes might influence microbial P concentrations (P-mic) in soil representing an important component of the Pcycle. Our objectives were to elucidate whether abiotic and biotic variables controlling P-mic concentrations in soil are the same for forests and grasslands, and to assess the effect of region and management on P-mic concentrations in forest and grassland soils as mediated by the controlling variables. In three regions of Germany, Schwabische Alb, Hanich-Dun, and Schorfheide-Chorin, we studied forest and grassland plots (each n=150) differing in plant diversity and land-use intensity. In contrast to controls of microbial biomass carbon (C-mic), P-mic was strongly influenced by soil pH, which in turn affected phosphorus (P) availability and thus microbial Puptake in forest and grassland soils. Furthermore, P-mic concentrations in forest and grassland soils increased with increasing plant diversity. Using structural equation models, we could show that soil C-org is the profound driver of plant diversity effects on P-mic in grasslands. For both forest and grassland, we found regional differences in P-mic attributable to differing environmental conditions (pH, soil moisture). Forest management and tree species showed no effect on P-mic due to a lack of effects on controlling variables (e.g., C-org). We also did not find management effects in grassland soils which might be caused by either compensation of differently directed effects across sites or by legacy effects of former fertilization constraining the relevance of actual practices. We conclude that variables controlling P-mic or C-mic in soil differ in part and that regional differences in controlling variables are more important for P-mic in soil than those induced by management.
Agricultural soil landscapes of hummocky ground moraines are characterized by 3D spatial patterns of soil types that result from profile modifications due to the combined effect of water and tillage erosion. We hypothesize that crops reflect such soil landscape patterns by increased or reduced plant and root growth. Root development may depend on the thickness and vertical sequence of soil horizons as well as on the structural development state of these horizons at different landscape positions. The hypotheses were tested using field data of the root density (RD) and the root lengths (RL) of winter wheat using the minirhizotron technique. We compared data from plots at the CarboZALF-D site (NE Germany) that are representing a non-eroded reference soil profile (Albic Luvisol) at a plateau position, a strongly eroded profile at steep slope (Calcaric Regosol), and a depositional profile at the footslope (Anocolluvic Regosol). At each of these plots, three Plexiglas access tubes were installed down to approx. 1.5 m soil depth. Root measurements were carried out during the growing season of winter wheat (September 2014-August 2015) on six dates. The root length density (RLD) and the root biomass density were derived from RD values assuming a mean specific root length of 100 m g(-1). Values of RD and RLD were highest for the Anocolluvic Regosol and lowest for the Calcaric Regosol. The maximum root penetration depth was lower in the Anocolluvic Regosol because of a relatively high and fluctuating water table at this landscape position. Results revealed positive relations between below-ground (root) and above-ground crop parameters (i.e., leaf area index, plant height, biomass, and yield) for the three soil types. Observed root densities and root lengths in soils at the three landscape positions corroborated the hypothesis that the root system was reflecting erosion-induced soil profile modifications. Soil landscape position dependent root growth should be considered when attempting to quantify landscape scale water and element balances as well as agricultural productivity.
Despite its societal relevance, the question whether fluctuations in flood occurrence or magnitude are coherent in space has hardly been addressed in quantitative terms. We investigate this question for Germany by analysing fluctuations in annual maximum series (AMS) values at 68 discharge gauges for the common time period 1932-2005. We find remarkable spatial coherence across Germany given its different flood regimes. For example, there is a tendency that flood-rich/-poor years in sub-catchments of the Rhine basin, which are dominated by winter floods, coincide with flood-rich/-poor years in the southern sub-catchments of the Danube basin, which have their dominant flood season in summer. Our findings indicate that coherence is caused rather by persistence in catchment wetness than by persistent periods of higher/lower event precipitation. Further, we propose to differentiate between event-type and non-event-type coherence. There are quite a number of hydrological years with considerable nonevent-type coherence, i.e. AMS values of the 68 gauges are spread out through the year but in the same magnitude range. Years with extreme flooding tend to be of event-type and non-coherent, i.e. there is at least one precipitation event that affects many catchments to various degree. Although spatial coherence is a remarkable phenomenon, and large-scale flooding across Germany can lead to severe situations, extreme magnitudes across the whole country within one event or within one year were not observed in the investigated period. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
To better understand the reaction of Arctic coasts to increasing environmental pressure, coastal changes along a 210-km length of the Yukon Territory coast in north-west Canada were investigated. Shoreline positions were acquired from aerial and satellite images between 1951 and 2011. Shoreline change rates were calculated for multiple time periods along the entire coast and at six key sites. Additionally, Differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) measurements of shoreline positions from seven field sites were used to analyze coastal dynamics from 1991 to 2015 at higher spatial resolution. The whole coast has a consistent, spatially averaged mean rate of shoreline change of 0.7 +/- 0.2 m/a with a general trend of decreasing erosion from west to east. Additional data from six key sites shows that the mean shoreline change rate decreased from -1.3 +/- 0.8 (1950s-1970s) to -0.5 +/- 0.6 m/a (1970s-1990s). This was followed by a significant increase in shoreline change to -1.3 +/- 0.3 m/a in the 1990s to 2011. This increase is confirmed by DGPS measurements that indicate increased erosion rates at local rates up to -8.9 m/a since 2006. Ground surveys and observations with remote sensing data indicate that the current rate of shoreline retreat along some parts of the Yukon coast is higher than at any time before in the 64-year-long observation record. Enhanced availability of material in turn might favor the buildup of gravel features, which have been growing in extent throughout the last six decades. Plain Language Summary The Arctic is warming, but the impacts on its coasts are not well documented. To better understand the reaction of Arctic coasts to increasing environmental pressure, shoreline position changes along a 210-km length of the Yukon Territory coast in northwest Canada were investigated for the time period from 1951 to 2015. Shoreline positions were extracted from historical aerial images from the 1950s, 1970s, and 1990s and from satellite images from 2011. Additionally, measurements of shoreline positions from field sites were used to analyze coastal dynamics from 1991 to 2015. The mean shoreline change rate was -1.3 m/a between the 1950s and 1970s and followed by a decrease to -0.5 m/a between the 1970s to 1990s. This was followed by a significant increase in mean shoreline change rates again to -1.3 m/a in the 1990s to 2011 time period. This acceleration in erosion is confirmed by field measurements that indicate increased erosion rates at high local rates up to -8.9 m/a since 2006. Enhanced coastal erosion might, in turn, favor the buildup of gravel features, which have been growing in extent throughout the last six decades.
Due to the challenges in upscaling daily climatic forcing to geological time, physically realistic models describing how rainfall drives fluvial erosion are lacking. To bridge this gap between short-term hydrology and long-term geomorphology, we derive a theoretical framework for long-term fluvial erosion rates driven by realistic climate by integrating an established stochastic-mechanistic model of hydrology into a threshold-stochastic formulation of stream power. The hydrological theory provides equations for the daily streamflow probability distribution as a function of climatic boundary conditions. The new parameters introduced are rooted firmly in established climatic and hydrological theory. This allows us to account for how fluvial erosion rates respond to changes in rainfall intensity, frequency, evapotranspiration rates, and soil moisture dynamics in a way that is consistent with existing theories. We use this framework to demonstrate how hydroclimatic conditions and erosion threshold magnitude control the degree of nonlinearity between steepness index and erosion rate. We find that hydrological processes can have a significant influence on how erosive a particular climatic forcing will be. By accounting for the influence of hydrology on fluvial erosion, we conclude that climate is an important control on erosion rates and long-term landscape evolution.
The volumes, rates and grain size distributions of sediment supplied from hillslopes represent the initial input of sediment delivered from upland areas and propagated through sediment routing systems. Moreover, hillslope sediment supply has a significant impact on landscape response time to tectonic and climatic perturbations. However, there are very few detailed field studies characterizing hillslope sediment supply as a function of lithology and delivery process. Here, we present new empirical data from tectonically-active areas in southern Italy that quantifies how lithology and rock strength control the landslide fluxes and grain size distributions supplied from hillslopes. Landslides are the major source of hillslope sediment supply in this area, and our inventory of similar to 2800 landslides reveals that landslide sediment flux is dominated by small, shallow landslides. We find that lithology and rock strength modulate the abundance of steep slopes and landslides, and the distribution of landslide sizes. Outcrop-scale rock strength also controls the grain sizes supplied by bedrock weathering, and influences the degree of coarsening of landslide supply with respect to weathering supply. Finally, we show that hillslope sediment supply largely determines the grain sizes of fluvial export, from catchments and that catchments with greater long-term landslide rates deliver coarser material. Therefore, our results demonstrate a dual control of lithology on hillslope sediment supply, by modulating both the sediment fluxes from landslides and the grain sizes supplied by hillslopes to the fluvial system.
The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)—a system of ocean currents in the North Atlantic—has a major impact on climate, yet its evolution during the industrial era is poorly known owing to a lack of direct current measurements. Here we provide evidence for a weakening of the AMOC by about 3 ± 1 sverdrups (around 15 per cent) since the mid-twentieth century. This weakening is revealed by a characteristic spatial and seasonal sea-surface temperature ‘fingerprint’—consisting of a pattern of cooling in the subpolar Atlantic Ocean and warming in the Gulf Stream region—and is calibrated through an ensemble of model simulations from the CMIP5 project. We find this fingerprint both in a high-resolution climate model in response to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, and in the temperature trends observed since the late nineteenth century. The pattern can be explained by a slowdown in the AMOC and reduced northward heat transport, as well as an associated northward shift of the Gulf Stream. Comparisons with recent direct measurements from the RAPID project and several other studies provide a consistent depiction of record-low AMOC values in recent years.
Soil pollutants such as hydrocarbons can induce toxic effects in plants and associated arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF). This study was conducted to evaluate if the legume Lotus corniculatus and the grass Elymus trachycaulus and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi could grow in two oil sands processing by-products after bitumen extraction from the oil sands in northern Alberta, Canada. Substrate treatments were coarse tailings sand (CTS), a mix of dry mature fine tailings (MFT) with CTS (1: 1) and Pleistocene sandy soil (hydrocarbon free); microbial treatments were without AMF, with AMF and AMF plus soil bacteria isolated from oil sands reclamation sites. Plant biomass, root morphology, leaf water content, shoot tissue phosphorus content and mycorrhizal colonization were evaluated. Both plant species had reduced growth in CTS and tailings mix relative to sandy soil. AMF frequency and intensity in roots of E. trachycaulus was not influenced by soil hydrocarbons; however, it decreased significantly over time in roots of L. corniculatus without bacteria in CTS. Mycorrhizal inoculation alone did not significantly improve plant growth in CTS and tailings mix; however, inoculation with mycorrhizae plus bacteria led to a significantly positive response of both plant species in CTS. Thus, combined inoculation with selected mycorrhizae and bacteria led to synergistic effects. Such combinations may be used in future to improve plant growth in reclamation of CTS and tailings mix.
Microbial oxidation of lithospheric organic carbon in rapidly eroding tropical mountain soils
(2018)
Lithospheric organic carbon ("petrogenic"; OCpetro) is oxidized during exhumation and subsequent erosion of mountain ranges. This process is a considerable source of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere over geologic time scales, but the mechanisms that govern oxidation rates in mountain landscapes are poorly constrained. We demonstrate that, on average, 67 +/- 11% of the OCpetro initially present in bedrock exhumed from the tropical, rapidly eroding Central Range of Taiwan is oxidized in soils, leading to CO2 emissions of 6.1 to 18.6 metric tons of carbon per square kilometer per year. The molecular and isotopic evolution of bulk OC and lipid biomarkers during soil formation reveals that OCpetro remineralization is microbially mediated. Rapid oxidation in mountain soils drives CO2 emission fluxes that increase with erosion rate, thereby counteracting CO2 drawdown by silicate weathering and biospheric OC burial.
By using 3-year global positioning system (GPS) measurements from December 2013 to November 2016, we provide in this study a detailed survey on the climatology of the GPS signal loss of Swarm onboard receivers. Our results show that the GPS signal losses prefer to occur at both low latitudes between +/- 5 and +/- 20 degrees magnetic latitude (MLAT) and high latitudes above 60 degrees MLAT in both hemispheres. These events at all latitudes are observed mainly during equinoxes and December solstice months, while totally absent during June solstice months. At low latitudes the GPS signal losses are caused by the equatorial plasma irregularities shortly after sunset, and at high latitude they are also highly related to the large density gradients associated with ionospheric irregularities. Additionally, the high-latitude events are more often observed in the Southern Hemisphere, occurring mainly at the cusp region and along nightside auroral latitudes. The signal losses mainly happen for those GPS rays with elevation angles less than 20 degrees, and more commonly occur when the line of sight between GPS and Swarm satellites is aligned with the shell structure of plasma irregularities. Our results also confirm that the capability of the Swarm receiver has been improved after the bandwidth of the phase-locked loop (PLL) widened, but the updates cannot radically avoid the interruption in tracking GPS satellites caused by the ionospheric plasma irregularities. Additionally, after the PLL bandwidth increased larger than 0.5 Hz, some unexpected signal losses are observed even at middle latitudes, which are not related to the ionospheric plasma irregularities. Our results suggest that rather than 1.0 Hz, a PLL bandwidth of 0.5 Hz is a more suitable value for the Swarm receiver.
Modern mobile devices (i.e. smartphones and tablet computers) are widespread, everyday tools, which are equipped with a variety of sensors including three-axis magnetometers. Here, we investigate the feasibility and the potential of using such mobile devices to mimic geophysical experiments in the classroom in a table-top setup. We focus on magnetic surveying and present a basic setup of a table-top experiment for collecting three-component magnetic data across well-defined source bodies and structures. Our results demonstrate that the quality of the recorded data is sufficient to address a number of important basic concepts in the magnetic method. The shown examples cover the analysis of magnetic data recorded across different kinds of dipole sources, thus illustrating the complexity of magnetic anomalies. In addition, we analyze the horizontal resolution capabilities using a pair of dipole sources placed at different horizontal distances to each other. Furthermore, we demonstrate that magnetic data recorded with a mobile device can even be used to introduce filtering, transformation, and inversion approaches as they are typically used when processing magnetic data sets recorded for real-world field applications. Thus, we conclude that such table-top experiments represent an easy-to-implement experimental procedure (as student exercise or classroom demonstration) and can provide first hands-on experience in the basic principles of magnetic surveying including the fundamentals of data acquisition, analysis and processing, as well as data evaluation and interpretation.
The Alpine Fault is capable of generating large (MW > 8) earthquakes and is the main geohazard on South Island, NZ, and late in its 250–291-year seismic cycle. To minimize its hazard potential, it is indispensable to identify and understand the processes influencing the geomechanical behavior and strength-evolution of the fault. High-resolution microstructural, mineralogical and geochemical analyses of the Alpine Fault's core demonstrate wall rock fragmentation, assisted by mineral dissolution, and cementation resulting in the formation of a fine-grained principal slip zone (PSZ). A complex network of anastomosing and mutually cross-cutting calcite veins implies that faulting occurred during episodes of dilation, slip and sealing. Fluid-assisted dilatancy leads to a significant volume increase accommodated by vein formation in the fault core. Undeformed euhedral chlorite crystals and calcite veins that have cut footwall gravels demonstrate that these processes occurred very close to the Earth's surface. Microstructural evidence indicates that cataclastic processes dominate the deformation and we suggest that powder lubrication and grain rolling, particularly influenced by abundant nanoparticles, play a key role in the fault core's velocity-weakening behavior rather than frictional sliding. This is further supported by the absence of smectite, which is reasonable given recently measured geothermal gradients of more than 120 °C km−1 and the impermeable nature of the PSZ, which both limit the growth of this phase and restrict its stability to shallow depths. Our observations demonstrate that high-temperature fluids can influence authigenic mineral formation and thus control the fault's geomechanical behavior and the cyclic evolution of its strength.
Numerous charcoal accumulations discovered in the submerged Chan Hol cave near Tulum, Quintana Roo, Mexico, have been C-14-dated revealing ages between 8110 +/- 28 C-14 a BP (9122-8999 cal a BP) and 7177 +/- 27 C-14 a BP (8027-7951 cal a BP). These charcoal concentrations, interpreted here as ancient illumination sites, provide strong evidence that the Chan Hol cave was dry and accessible during that time interval. Humans used the cave for at least 1200 years during the early and middle Holocene, before access was successively interrupted by global sea level rise and flooding of the cave system. Our data thus narrow the gap between an early settlement in the Tulum area reaching from the late Pleistocene (similar to 13 000 a) to middle Holocene (e.g. 7177 C-14 a BP), and the Maya Formative period at approximately 3000 a bp. Yet, no evidence has been presented to date for human settlement during the similar to 4000-year interval between 7000 and 3000 a. This is remarkable as settlement in other areas of south-eastern Mexico (e.g. Chiapas, Tabasco) and in Guatemala was apparently continuous.
Recent improvements in the development of VLBI (very long baseline interferometry) and other space geodetic techniques such as the global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) require very precise a-priori information of short-period (daily and sub-daily) Earth rotation variations. One significant contribution to Earth rotation is caused by the diurnal and semi-diurnal ocean tides. Within this work, we developed a new model for the short-period ocean tidal variations in Earth rotation, where the ocean tidal angular momentum model and the Earth rotation variation have been setup jointly. Besides the model of the short-period variation of the Earth’s rotation parameters (ERP), based on the empirical ocean tide model EOT11a, we developed also ERP models, that are based on the hydrodynamic ocean tide models FES2012 and HAMTIDE. Furthermore, we have assessed the effect of uncertainties in the elastic Earth model on the resulting ERP models. Our proposed alternative ERP model to the IERS 2010 conventional model considers the elastic model PREM and 260 partial tides. The choice of the ocean tide model and the determination of the tidal velocities have been identified as the main uncertainties. However, in the VLBI analysis all models perform on the same level of accuracy. From these findings, we conclude that the models presented here, which are based on a re-examined theoretical description and long-term satellite altimetry observation only, are an alternative for the IERS conventional model but do not improve the geodetic results.
The Northern Zagros Suture Zone (NZSZ), formed as a result of the collision between Arabian and Sanandaj-Sirjan microplate, is considered as part of the Zagros orogenic belt. NZSZ is marked by two allochthonous thrust sheets in upward stacking order: lower and upper allochthon. The Bulfat complex is a part of the upper allochthon or "Ophiolite-bearing terrane" of Albian-Cenomenion age (97-105 Ma). Voluminous highly sheared serpentinites associated with ophiolites occur within this upper allochthon. In addition, the Gemo-Qandil Group is characterized by gabbroic to dioritic Bulfat intrusion with a crystallization age spanning from similar to 45 to similar to 40 Ma, as well as extensive metapelites with contact to the Walash-Naupurdam metavolcanic rocks. Due to the deformation in the Sanandaj-Sirjan Zone along the eastern side of the Iraqi segment of NZSZ, the Gemo-Qandil Group was regionally metamorphosed during late Cretaceous (similar to 80 Ma). This tectono-compressional dynamics ultimately caused an oscillatory deformation against Arabian continental margin deposits as well. During these events, gabbro-diorite intrusion with high-grade contact metamorphic aureoles occurred near Bulfat. Thus, there is an overlap between regional and contact metamorphic conditions in the area. The earlier metamorphic characteristic can be seen only in places where the latter contact influence was insignificant. Generally, this can only observed at a distance of more than 2.5 km from the contact. According to petrographic details and field observations, the thermally metamorphosed metapelitic units of the metasediment have been completely assimilated, with only some streaks of biotite and relicts of initial foliation. They strongly resemble amphibolite-grade slices from the regional metamorphic rocks in the region. Metapelitic samples far from the intrusion give similar biotite cooling ages as the intrusive rocks. Thus, they may be affected by the same thermal event. Ar-40/Ar-39 dating of biotite in metapelite rocks of Bulfat by step-wise heating with laser gave average weighted isotopic ages of 34.78 +/- 0.06 Ma. This is interpreted as crystallization/recrystallization age of biotite possibly representing the time of cooling and uplift history of the Bulfat intrusion. Cooling and exhumation rates for the Bulfat gabbro-diorite rocks were estimated as similar to 400 A degrees C/Ma and similar to 3.3 mm/year respectively. According to petrographic details, field observations and Ar/Ar dating concerning the contact metamorphism near Bulfat due to the gabbro-diorite intrusion, no significant deformation is visible during exhumation processes after the Paleogene tectono-thermal event, indicating that isotopic ages of 34.78 +/- 0.06 Ma could mark the timing of termination of the island arc activity in the Ophiolite-bearing terrane (upper allochthon).
A fast and sensitive method for the continuous determination of methane (CH4) and its stable carbon isotopic values (delta C-13-CH4) in surface waters was developed by applying a vacuum to a gas/liquid exchange membrane and measuring the extracted gases by a portable cavity ring-down spectroscopy analyser (M-CRDS). The M-CRDS was calibrated and characterized for CH4 concentration and delta C-13-CH4 with synthetic water standards. The detection limit of the M-CRDS for the simultaneous determination of CH4 and delta C-13-CH4 is 3.6 nmol L-1 CH4. A measurement precision of CH4 concentrations and delta C-13-CH4 in the range of 1.1%, respectively, 1.7 parts per thousand (1 sigma) and accuracy (1.3%, respectively, 0.8 parts per thousand [1 sigma]) was achieved for single measurements and averaging times of 10 min. The response time tau of 57 +/- 5 s allow determination of delta C-13-CH4 values more than twice as fast than other methods. The demonstrated M-CRDS method was applied and tested for Lake Stechlin (Germany) and compared with the headspace-gas chromatography and fast membrane CH4 concentration methods. Maximum CH4 concentrations (577 nmol L-1) and lightest delta C-13-CH4 (-35.2 parts per thousand) were found around the thermocline in depth profile measurements. The M-CRDS-method was in good agreement with other methods. Temporal variations in CH4 concentration and delta C-13-CH4 obtained in 24 h measurements indicate either local methane production/oxidation or physical variations in the thermocline. Therefore, these results illustrate the need of fast and sensitive analyses to achieve a better understanding of different mechanisms and pathways of CH4 formation in aquatic environments.
The Gongjue basin from the eastern Qiangtang terrane is located in the transition region where the regional structural lineation curves from east-west-oriented in Tibet to north-south-oriented in Yunnan. In this study, we sampled the red beds in the basin from the lower Gongjue to upper Ranmugou formations for the first time covering the entire stratigraphic profile. The stratigraphic ages are bracketed within 53-43Ma by new detrital zircon U-Pb ages constraining the maximum deposition age to 52.51.5Ma. Rock magnetic and petrographic studies indicate that detrital magnetite and hematite are the magnetic carriers. Positive reversals and fold tests demonstrate that the characteristic remanent magnetization has a primary origin. The Gongjue and Ranmugou formations yield mean characteristic remanent magnetization directions of D-s/I-s=31.0 degrees/21.3 degrees and D-s/I-s=15.9 degrees/22.0 degrees, respectively. The magnetic inclination of these characteristic remanent magnetizations is significantly shallowed compared to the expected inclination for the locality. However, the elongation/inclination correction method does not provide a meaningful correction, likely because of syn-depositional rotation. Rotations relative to the Eurasian apparent polar wander path occurred in three stages: Stage I, 33.33.4 degrees clockwise rotation during the deposition of the Gongjue and lower Ranmugou formations; Stage II, 26.93.7 degrees counterclockwise rotation during deposition of the lower and middle Ranmugou formation; and Stage III, 17.73.3 degrees clockwise rotation after 43Ma. The complex rotation history recorded in the basin is possibly linked to sinistral shear along the Qiangtang block during India indentation into Asia and the early stage of the extrusion of the northwestern Indochina blocks away from eastern Tibet.
Understanding the variability of the ionosphere is important for the prediction of space weather and climate. Recent studies have shown that forcing from the lower atmosphere plays a significant role for the short-term (day-to-day) variability of the low-latitude ionosphere. The present study aims to assess the importance of atmospheric forcing for the variability of the daytime equatorial ionospheric electric field on the interannual (year-to-year) time scale. Magnetic field measurements from Huancayo (12.05 degrees S, 75.33 degrees W) are used to augment the equatorial vertical plasma drift velocity (V-Z) measurements from the Jicamarca Unattended Long-term Investigations of the Ionosphere and Atmosphere radar during 2001-2016. V-Z can be regarded as a measure of the zonal electric field. After removing the seasonal variation of similar to 10m/s, midday values of V-Z show an interannual variation of similar to 2m/s with an oscillation period of 2-3years. No evidence of solar cycle influence is found. The Ground-to-topside Atmosphere-Ionosphere model for Aeronomy, which takes into account realistic atmospheric variability below 30km, reproduces the pattern of the observed interannual variation without having to include variable forcing from the magnetosphere. The results indicate that lower atmospheric forcing plays a dominant role for the observed interannual variability of V-Z at 1200 local time.
The equatorial electrojet is an enhanced eastward current in the dayside E region ionosphere flowing along the magnetic equator. The equatorial electrojet is highly variable as it is subject to various forcing mechanisms including atmospheric waves from the lower layers of the atmosphere. There are occasionally times when the intensity of the equatorial electrojet at a fixed longitude shows an oscillatory variation with a period of approximately 6days. We present case studies of such events based on the equatorial electrojet measurements from the CHAMP and Swarm satellites. The spatial and temporal variability of the equatorial electrojet intensity during these events reveals characteristics of a westward propagating wave with zonal wavenumber 1, consistent with the effect of the quasi-6-day planetary wave. Analyses of the geopotential height data from the Aura satellite confirm the presence of the quasi-6-day planetary wave in the lower thermosphere during the events. The amplitude of the quasi-6-day variation in the equatorial electrojet intensity depends on longitude, but no systematic longitudinal dependence is found for different events. During the event of August 2010, quasi-6-day variations are also observed by ground-based magnetometers and a radar in the Peruvian sector. The effect of the quasi-6-day wave accounts for up to +/- 5.9m/s in the equatorial vertical plasma velocity at noon, which is much larger than previously predicted by a numerical model. These results suggest that the quasi-6-day planetary wave is an important source of short-term variability in the equatorial ionosphere.
Python is at the forefront of scientific computation for seismologists and therefore should be introduced to students interested in becoming seismologists. On its own, Python is open source and well designed with extensive libraries. However, Python code can also be executed, visualized, and communicated to others with "Jupyter Notebooks". Thus, Jupyter Notebooks are ideal for teaching students Python and scientific computation. In this article, we designed an openly available Python library and collection of Jupyter Notebooks based on defined scientific computation learning goals for seismology students. The Notebooks cover topics from an introduction to Python to organizing data, earthquake catalog statistics, linear regression, and making maps. Our Python library and collection of Jupyter Notebooks are meant to be used as course materials for an upper-division data analysis course in an Earth Science Department, and the materials were tested in a Probabilistic Seismic Hazard course. However, seismologists or anyone else who is interested in Python for data analysis and map making can use these materials.
Dumortierite was synthesized in piston-cylinder experiments at 2.5-4.0 GPa, 650-700 degrees C in the Al2O3 -B2O3-SiO2-H2O (ABSH) system. Electron-microprobe (EMP) analyses reveal significant boron-excess (up to 0.26 B-[4] per formula unit, pfu) and silicon-deficiency relative to the ideal anhydrous dumortierite stoichiometry Al7BSi3O18 . The EMP data in conjunction with results from single-crystal Raman spectroscopy and powder X-ray diffraction provide evidence that silicon at the tetrahedral site is replaced by excess boron via the substitution Si-[4] <--> B-[4] + H. The Raman spectrum of synthetic dumortierite in the frequency region 2000 4000 cm(-1) comprises eight bands, of which six are located at frequencies below 3400 cm(-1). This points to strong hydrogen bonding, most likely O2-H center dot center dot center dot O7 and O7-H center dot center dot center dot O2, arising from a high number of octahedral vacancies at the All site and substitution of trivalent Al3+ and B3+ for Si4+ at Si1 and Si2 sites, causing decreasing acceptor-donor distances and lower incident valence at the acceptor oxygen. Contrary to the synthetic high-pressure ABSH-dumortierite, magnesiodumortierite from the Dora-Maira Massif, which is assumed to have formed at similar conditions (2.5-3.0 GPa, 700 degrees C), does not show any B-excess. Tourmaline shows an analogous behaviour in that magnesium-rich (e.g., dravitic) tourmaline formed at high pressure shows no or only minor amounts of tetrahedral boron, whereas natural aluminum-rich tourmaline and synthetic olenitic tourmaline formed at high pressures can incorporate significant amounts of tetrahedral boron. Two mechanisms might account for this discrepancy: (i) Structural avoidance of Mg-[6]-(OR3+)-R-[4] configurations in magnesiodumortierite due to charge deficieny at the oxygens O2 and O7 and strong local distortion of M1 due to decreased O2-O7 bond length, and/or (ii) decreasing fluid mobility of boron in Al-rich systems at high pressures.
A transparent and data-driven global tectonic regionalization model for seismic hazard assessment
(2018)
A key concept that is common to many assumptions inherent within seismic hazard assessment is that of tectonic similarity. This recognizes that certain regions of the globe may display similar geophysical characteristics, such as in the attenuation of seismic waves, the magnitude scaling properties of seismogenic sources or the seismic coupling of the lithosphere. Previous attempts at tectonic regionalization, particularly within a seismic hazard assessment context, have often been based on expert judgements; in most of these cases, the process for delineating tectonic regions is neither reproducible nor consistent from location to location. In this work, the regionalization process is implemented in a scheme that is reproducible, comprehensible from a geophysical rationale, and revisable when new relevant data are published. A spatial classification-scheme is developed based on fuzzy logic, enabling the quantification of concepts that are approximate rather than precise. Using the proposed methodology, we obtain a transparent and data-driven global tectonic regionalization model for seismic hazard applications as well as the subjective probabilities (e.g. degree of being active/degree of being cratonic) that indicate the degree to which a site belongs in a tectonic category.
Detections of pP and sP phase arrivals (the so-called depth phases) at teleseismic distance provide one of the best ways to estimate earthquake focal depth, as the P-pP and the P-sP delays are strongly dependent on the depth. Based on a new processing workflow and using a single seismic array at teleseismic distance, we can estimate the depth of clusters of small events down to magnitude M-b 3.5. Our method provides a direct view of the relative variations of the seismicity depth from an active area. This study focuses on the application of this new methodology to study the lateral variations of the Guerrero subduction zone (Mexico) using the Eielson seismic array in Alaska (USA). After denoising the signals, 1232 M-b 3.5 + events were detected, with clear P, pP, sP and PcP arrivals. A high-resolution view of the lateral variations of the depth of the seismicity of the Guerero-Oaxaca area is thus obtained. The seismicity is shown to be mainly clustered along the interface, coherently following the geometry of the plate as constrained by the receiver-function analysis along the Meso America Subduction Experiment profile. From this study, the hypothesis of tears on the western part of Guerrero and the eastern part of Oaxaca are strongly confirmed by dramatic lateral changes in the depth of the earthquake clusters. The presence of these two tears might explain the observed lateral variations in seismicity, which is correlated with the boundaries of the slow slip events.
Germination marks a critical transition in plant life that is prone to high mortality. Strong selection pressure is therefore expected to finely tune it to environmental conditions. Our study on the common Mediterranean grass Brachypodium hybridum assessed whether germination behavior changes systematically along a steep natural rainfall gradient ranging from harsh desert to rather mild mesic-Mediterranean conditions, We specifically tested hypotheses that germination behavior confers greater risk-spreading in populations from drier, unpredictable environments, and that seeds from wetter populations are better competitors. In 14 populations (spanning 114-954 mm annual rainfall) we assessed three alternative key parameters of germination in a greenhouse experiment: between-year dormancy, days to emergence within a season, and temporal spread. Addition of neighbor seeds accounted for competition as another crucial environmental factor. In six of the 14 populations, we also compared seeds originating from corresponding north (more mesic) and south (more arid) exposed hill slopes to test whether germination patterns along the large-scale rainfall gradient are paralleled at this smaller scale. B. hybridum exhibited generally high germination fractions and rapid emergence with very little temporal spread, indicating overall little risk-spreading germination. Surprisingly, none of the three parameters changed systematically with increasing aridity, neither at large scale along the rainfall gradient nor at small scale between north and south exposures. Neighbor seeds, however, mildly suppressed germination. Germination of neighbor seeds, in turn, was more strongly suppressed by B. hybridum seeds from drier populations, and this effect was stronger for forb than for grass neighbor species. Our results provide strong evidence that increased risk-spreading germination is not a universal, essential strategy to persist in increasingly dry, unpredictable environments. They also highlight that competition with neighbors occurs even at the earliest plant life stage. Since neighbor effects were species-specific, competition among seeds can affect community composition at later plant stages.
Carbonate-rich silicate and carbonate melts play a crucial role in deep Earth magmatic processes and their melt structure is a key parameter, as it controls physical and transport properties. Carbon-rich melts can be strongly enriched in trace elements, but the structural incorporation mechanisms of these elements are difficult to study because such melts generally cannot be quenched to glasses. In this contribution we investigate the influence of CO2 on the local environments of trace elements contained in silicate glasses with variable CO2 concentrations and in silicate and carbonate melts. The melts were studied in-situ at high pressure and temperature conditions using the Paris-Edinburgh press (2.2 to 2.6 GPa and 1200 to 1500 degrees C). The compositions studied include sodium-rich peralkaline silicate melts and glasses and carbonate melts similar to those occurring naturally at Oldoinyo Lengai volcano. The local environments of yttrium (Y), lanthanum (La) and strontium (Sr) were investigated using extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) spectroscopy. Main findings of the study suggest: (1) In peralkaline silicate glasses the local structure of Y is unaffected by the CO2 content. Contrary, a slight increase of oxygen bond lengths of Sr and La is inferred with increasing CO2 content in peralkaline glasses, while they remain constant in glasses of even higher peralkalinity independent of the CO2 content. (2) In silicate melts of different CO2 contents Y-O bond lengths are constant, while a slight increase within carbonate melt compositions is deduced. On the other hand, a steady bond lengths increase over the whole compositional range is inferred for La-O and Sr-O. This may well be explained by distinct preferences of these elements for specific local environments. Based on these new data, we suggest potential mechanisms for the structural incorporation of these elements, a key step towards understanding their partitioning behavior in natural magmatic systems.
Effects of upper mantle heterogeneities on the lithospheric stress field and dynamic topography
(2018)
The orientation and tectonic regime of the observed crustal/lithospheric stress field contribute to our knowledge of different deformation processes occurring within the Earth's crust and lithosphere. In this study, we analyze the influence of the thermal and density structure of the upper mantle on the lithospheric stress field and topography. We use a 3-D lithosphere–asthenosphere numerical model with power-law rheology, coupled to a spectral mantle flow code at 300 km depth. Our results are validated against the World Stress Map 2016 (WSM2016) and the observation-based residual topography. We derive the upper mantle thermal structure from either a heat flow model combined with a seafloor age model (TM1) or a global S-wave velocity model (TM2). We show that lateral density heterogeneities in the upper 300 km have a limited influence on the modeled horizontal stress field as opposed to the resulting dynamic topography that appears more sensitive to such heterogeneities. The modeled stress field directions, using only the mantle heterogeneities below 300 km, are not perturbed much when the effects of lithosphere and crust above 300 km are added. In contrast, modeled stress magnitudes and dynamic topography are to a greater extent controlled by the upper mantle density structure. After correction for the chemical depletion of continents, the TM2 model leads to a much better fit with the observed residual topography giving a good correlation of 0.51 in continents, but this correction leads to no significant improvement of the fit between the WSM2016 and the resulting lithosphere stresses. In continental regions with abundant heat flow data, TM1 results in relatively small angular misfits. For example, in western Europe the misfit between the modeled and observation-based stress is 18.3°. Our findings emphasize that the relative contributions coming from shallow and deep mantle dynamic forces are quite different for the lithospheric stress field and dynamic topography.
The lower atmospheric forcing effects on the ionosphere are particularly evident during extreme meteorological events known as sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). During SSWs, the polar stratosphere and ionosphere, two distant atmospheric regions, are coupled through the SSW-induced modulation of atmospheric migrating and nonmigrating tides. The changes in the migrating semidiurnal solar and lunar tides are the major source of ionospheric variabilities during SSWs. In this study, we use 55 years of ground-magnetometer observations to investigate the composite characteristics of the lunar tide of the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) during SSWs. These long-term observations allow us to capture the EEJ lunar tidal response to the SSWs in a statistical sense. Further, we examine the influence of solar flux conditions and the phases of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the lunar tide and find that the QBO phases and solar flux conditions modulate the EEJ lunar tidal response during SSWs in a similar way as they modulate the wintertime Arctic polar vortex. This work provides first evidence of modulation of the EEJ lunar tide due to QBO. Plain Language Summary This study focuses on the vertical coupling between the polar stratosphere and equatorial ionosphere during sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Extreme meteorological events such as SSWs induce variabilities in the ionosphere by modulating the atmospheric migrating and nonmigrating tides, and these variabilities can be comparable to a moderate geomagnetic storm. Observations and modeling studies have found that the changes in the migrating semidiurnal solar and lunar tides are a major source of ionospheric variabilities during SSWs. The equatorial electrojet (EEJ) is a narrow ribbon of current flowing over the dip equator in the ionosphere and is particularly sensitive to tidal changes. Long-term ground-magnetometer recordings have been used in this study to estimate the variations induced in EEJ during SSWs due to the lunar semidiurnal tide in a statistical sense. The wintertime Arctic polar vortex and the occurrence of SSWs are modulated by solar flux conditions and the phases of quasi-biennial oscillation. In this work, we find the first evidence of lunar tidal modulation of EEJ due to quasi-biennial oscillation during SSWs. Our findings will be useful in providing improved predictions of ionospheric variations due to SSWs. The aeronomy community will be the most impacted by this paper.
Subsurface lateral flow in hillslope soils depends on lower permeability or texture-contrasting soil horizons. In the arable hummocky soil landscape, erosion processes caused glacial till appearance closer to the soil surface at upslope positions. The objective of this work was to quantify the potential for subsurface lateral flow depending on the erosion-affected spatial hydropedological complexity. The eroded Haplic Luvisol profile was studied due to the presence of a relatively dense C horizon that varied in depth, thickness, and sloping angle. A two-dimensional numerical modeling and sensitivity analysis for the saturated hydraulic conductivity (K-s) of the C horizon and the depth to C horizon (i.e., soil solum thickness) was performed for rainstorms in 2011 and 2012 using HYDRUS-2D. A K-s value of <2.5 cm d(-1) for the C horizon was required for lateral flow initiation. Lateral flow was (i) increasing with decreasing solum thickness, indicating an erosion-induced feedback on subsurface lateral flow, and (ii) dependent on the soil moisture regime prior to rainstorms. The effect of lateral flow on the movement of a conservative tracer was simulated in the form of a "virtual experiment". Simulation scenarios revealed only a relatively small lateral shift of the tracer plume caused by a local decoupling of water (already lateral) from subsequent tracer movement (still vertical). Longer term simulations suggested that, for the present conditions, lateral flow was limited mostly to occasional summer storm events. Even without considering preferential flow contribution to lateral flow, highly complex hydropedologic interactions are present in erosion-affected heterogeneous soil profiles.
The oldest ice core records are obtained from the East Antarctic Plateau. Water isotopes are key proxies to reconstructing past climatic conditions over the ice sheet and at the evaporation source. The accuracy of climate reconstructions depends on knowledge of all processes affecting water vapour, precipitation and snow isotopic compositions. Fractionation processes are well understood and can be integrated in trajectory-based Rayleigh distillation and isotope-enabled climate models. However, a quantitative understanding of processes potentially altering snow isotopic composition after deposition is still missing. In low-accumulation sites, such as those found in East Antarctica, these poorly constrained processes are likely to play a significant role and limit the interpretability of an ice core's isotopic composition.
By combining observations of isotopic composition in vapour, precipitation, surface snow and buried snow from Dome C, a deep ice core site on the East Antarctic Plateau, we found indications of a seasonal impact of metamorphism on the surface snow isotopic signal when compared to the initial precipitation. Particularly in summer, exchanges of water molecules between vapour and snow are driven by the diurnal sublimation-condensation cycles. Overall, we observe in between precipitation events modification of the surface snow isotopic composition. Using high-resolution water isotopic composition profiles from snow pits at five Antarctic sites with different accumulation rates, we identified common patterns which cannot be attributed to the seasonal variability of precipitation. These differences in the precipitation, surface snow and buried snow isotopic composition provide evidence of post-deposition processes affecting ice core records in low-accumulation areas.
As one of the 195 member countries of the United Nations, Germany signed the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (SFDRR). Among other targets, the SFDRR aims at reducing direct economic losses caused by natural hazards by 2030. The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) has hence proposed a methodology for estimating direct economic losses per event and country, based on experiences from developing countries. Since its usability in industrialized countries is unknown, this study presents the first implementation and validation of this approach in Germany. The methodology was tested for the three costliest natural hazard types in Germany, i.e. floods, wind and hail storms, considering 12 case studies between 1984 and 2016. Although the event-specific input data requirements are restricted to the number of damaged or destroyed units per sector, incomplete event documentations did not allow a full validation of all sectors necessary to describe the total direct economic loss. New modules (cars, forestry, paved roads, housing contents and overall costs of urban infrastructure) were developed to better adapt this methodology to German conditions. Whereas the original UNISDR methodology both over-and underestimates the losses of the tested events by a wide margin, the adapted methodology is able to calculate losses accounting well for all event types except for flash floods. Hence, this approach serves as a good starting point for macro-scale loss estimations. By implementing this approach into damage and event documentation and reporting standards, a consistent monitoring of the SFDRR could be achieved.
Along the NE Pamir margin, flights of late Quaternary fluvial terraces span actively deforming fault-related folds. We present detailed results on two terraces dated using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and cosmogenic radionuclide Be-10 (CRN) techniques. Quartz OSL dating of two different grain sizes (4-11 mu m and 90-180 mu m) revealed the fine-grain quartz fraction may overestimate the terrace ages by up to a factor of ten. Two-mm, small-aliquot, coarse-grain quartz OSL ages, calculated using the minimum age model, yielded stratigraphically consistent ages within error and dated times of terrace deposition to similar to 9 and similar to 16 ka. We speculate that, in this arid environment, fine-grain samples can be transported and deposited in single, turbid, and (sometimes) night-time floods that prevent thorough bleaching and, thereby, can lead to relatively large residual OSL signals. In contrast, sand in the fluvial system is likely to have a much longer residence time during transport, thereby providing greater opportunities for thorough bleaching. CRN Be-10 depth profiles date the timing of terrace abandonment to similar to 8 and similar to 14 ka: ages that generally agree with the coarse-grain quartz OSL ages. Our new terrace age of similar to 13-14 ka is broadly consistent with other terraces in the region that indicate terrace deposition and subsequent abandonment occurred primarily during glacial-interglacial transitions, thereby suggesting a climatic control on the formation of these terraces on the margins of the Tarim Basin. Furthermore, tectonic shortening rates calculated from these deformed terraces range from similar to 1.2 to similar to 4.6 mm/a and, when combined with shortening rates from other structures in the region, illuminate the late Quaternary basinward migration of deformation to faults and folds along the Pamir-Tian Shan collisional interface.
Accelerometric data from the well-studied valley EUROSEISTEST are used to investigate ground motion uncertainty and variability. We define a simple local ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) and investigate changes in standard deviation (σ) and its components, the between-event variability (τ) and within-event variability (φ). Improving seismological metadata significantly reduces τ (30–50%), which in turn reduces the total σ. Improving site information reduces the systematic site-to-site variability, φ S2S (20–30%), in turn reducing φ, and ultimately, σ. Our values of standard deviations are lower than global values from literature, and closer to path-specific than site-specific values. However, our data have insufficient azimuthal coverage for single-path analysis. Certain stations have higher ground-motion variability, possibly due to topography, basin edge or downgoing wave effects. Sensitivity checks show that 3 recordings per event is a sufficient data selection criterion, however, one of the dataset’s advantages is the large number of recordings per station (9–90) that yields good site term estimates. We examine uncertainty components binning our data with magnitude from 0.01 to 2 s; at smaller magnitudes, τ decreases and φ SS increases, possibly due to κ and source-site trade-offs Finally, we investigate the alternative approach of computing φ SS using existing GMPEs instead of creating an ad hoc local GMPE. This is important where data are insufficient to create one, or when site-specific PSHA is performed. We show that global GMPEs may still capture φ SS , provided that: (1) the magnitude scaling errors are accommodated by the event terms; (2) there are no distance scaling errors (use of a regionally applicable model). Site terms (φ S2S ) computed by different global GMPEs (using different site-proxies) vary significantly, especially for hard-rock sites. This indicates that GMPEs may be poorly constrained where they are sometimes most needed, i.e., for hard rock.
Most large-scale hydrologic models fall short in reproducing groundwater head dynamics and simulating transport process due to their oversimplified representation of groundwater flow. In this study, we aim to extend the applicability of the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM v5.7) to subsurface hydrology by coupling it with the porous media simulator OpenGeoSys (OGS). The two models are one-way coupled through model interfaces GIS2FEM and RIV2FEM, by which the grid-based fluxes of groundwater recharge and the river-groundwater exchange generated by mHM are converted to fixed-flux boundary conditions of the groundwater model OGS. Specifically, the grid-based vertical reservoirs in mHM are completely preserved for the estimation of land-surface fluxes, while OGS acts as a plug-in to the original mHM modeling framework for groundwater flow and transport modeling. The applicability of the coupled model (mHM-OGS v1.0) is evaluated by a case study in the central European mesoscale river basin - Nagelstedt. Different time steps, i.e., daily in mHM and monthly in OGS, are used to account for fast surface flow and slow groundwater flow. Model calibration is conducted following a two-step procedure using discharge for mHM and long-term mean of groundwater head measurements for OGS. Based on the model summary statistics, namely the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE), the mean absolute error (MAE), and the interquartile range error (QRE), the coupled model is able to satisfactorily represent the dynamics of discharge and groundwater heads at several locations across the study basin. Our exemplary calculations show that the one-way coupled model can take advantage of the spatially explicit modeling capabilities of surface and groundwater hydrologic models and provide an adequate representation of the spatiotemporal behaviors of groundwater storage and heads, thus making it a valuable tool for addressing water resources and management problems.
The landscape of the semiarid Pampa in central Argentina is characterized by late Pleistocene aeolian deposits, covering large plains with sporadic dune structures. Since the current land use changed from extensive livestock production within the Caldenal forest ecosystem to arable land, the wind erosion risk increased distinctly. We measured wind erosion and deposition patterns at the plot scale and investigated the spatial variability of the erosion processes. The wind-induced mass-transport was measured with 18 Modified Wilson and Cooke samplers (MWAC), installed on a 1.44 ha large field in a 20 x 40 m grid. Physical and chemical soil properties from the upper soil as well as a digital elevation model were recorded in a 20 x 20 m grid. In a 5-month measuring campaign data from seven storms with three different wind directions was obtained. Results show very heterogeneous patterns of erosion and deposition for each storm and indicate favoured erosion on windward and deposits on leeward terrain positions. Furthermore, a multiple regression model was build, explaining up to 70% of the spatial variance of erosion by just using four predictors: topsoil thickness, relative elevation, soil organic carbon content and slope direction. Our findings suggest a structure-process-structure complex where the landscape structure determines the effects of recent wind erosion processes which again slowly influence the structure, leading to a gradual increase of soil heterogeneity.
Glaciers and rivers are the main agents of mountain erosion. While in the fluvial realm empirical relationships and their mathematical description, such as the stream power law, improved the understanding of fundamental controls on landscape evolution, simple constraints on glacial topography and governing scaling relations are widely lacking. We present a steady state solution for longitudinal profiles along eroding glaciers in a coupled system that includes tectonics and climate. We combined the shallow ice approximation and a glacial erosion rule to calculate ice surface and bed topography from prescribed glacier mass balance gradient and rock uplift rate. Our approach is inspired by the classic application of the stream power law for describing a fluvial steady state but with the striking difference that, in the glacial realm, glacier mass balance is added as an altitude-dependent variable. From our analyses we find that ice surface slope and glacial relief scale with uplift rate with scaling exponents indicating that glacial relief is less sensitive to uplift rate than relief in most fluvial landscapes. Basic scaling relations controlled by either basal sliding or internal deformation follow a power law with the exponent depending on the exponents for the glacial erosion rule and Glen's flow law. In a mixed scenario of sliding and deformation, complicated scaling relations with variable exponents emerge. Furthermore, a cutoff in glacier mass balance or cold ice in high elevations can lead to substantially larger scaling exponents which may provide an explanation for high relief in high latitudes.
The Central Pontides of N Turkey represents a mobile orogenic belt of the southern Eurasian margin that experienced several phases of exhumation associated with the consumption of different branches of the Neo-Tethys Ocean and the amalgamation of continental domains. Our new low-temperature thermochronology data help to constrain the timing of these episodes, providing new insights into associated geodynamic processes. In particular, our data suggest that exhumation occurred at (1) similar to 110 to 90Ma, most likely during tectonic accretion and exhumation of metamorphic rocks from the subduction zone; (2) from similar to 60 to 40Ma, during the collision of the Kirehir and Anatolide-Tauride microcontinental domains with the Eurasian margin; (3) from similar to 0 to 25Ma, either during the early stages of the Arabia-Eurasia collision (soft collision) when the Arabian passive margin reached the trench, implying 70 to 530km of subduction of the Arabian passive margin, or during a phase of trench advance predating hard collision at similar to 20Ma; and (4) similar to 11Ma to the present, during transpression associated with the westward motion of Anatolia. Our findings document the punctuated nature of fault-related exhumation, with episodes of fast cooling followed by periods of slow cooling or subsidence, the role of inverted normal faults in controlling the Paleogene exhumation pattern, and of the North Anatolian Fault in dictating the most recent pattern of exhumation.
Understanding the geologic evolution of Northern Tibetan Plateau with multiple thermochronometers
(2018)
The early onset of deformation following the India-Asia collision, Neogene expanse of uplift, and complex systems that comprise strike-slip faults, thrust faults, and intermontane basins characterize the Cenozoic tectonism of Northern Tibetan Plateau and raise two prominent questions in orogenic geodynamics: 1) What mechanism(s) control(s) the transfer of stress related to the India-Asia collision across the distance of >2000 km; and 2) Why the development of high topography was delayed in the Northern Tibetan Plateau and what does it reveal about how the internal forces and external boundary conditions evolved. To address these two questions, we reconstruct a holistic spatial-temporal deformation history of the Northern Tibetan Plateau by using a range of thermochronometers, with closure temperature spanning from 350 degrees C to-60-70 degrees C. This multi-thermochronometer study reveals three stages of faulting related cooling, in the early Cretaceous, in Paleocene-Eocene and in middle-late Miocene. We observe that Paleocene-Eocene deformation was spatially restricted and mostly occurred on reactivated Cretaceous structures, indicating a control of pre-existing weakness on early Cenozoic deformation. Extensive Neogene deformation contrasts with restricted Paleocene-Eocene deformation and relatively quiescent shortening during the Oligocene-early Miocene, which implies a change in the regional tectonics regime. Global plate reconstructions show that this tectonic reorganization is coeval with an increase in Pacific-Asia plate convergence rates. We argue that this change in regional tectonics is a result of increasing constrictive environment of the eastern plate boundary, which changed the behavior of the Altyn Tagh fault the boundary fault of Northern Tibetan Plateau, causing it to change from feeding slip into structures out of the plateau to feeding slip into structures at plateau margins.
We propose a reduced dynamical system describing the coupled evolution of fluid flow and magnetic field at the top of the Earth's core between the years 1900 and 2014. The flow evolution is modeled with a first-order autoregressive process, while the magnetic field obeys the classical frozen flux equation. An ensemble Kalman filter algorithm serves to constrain the dynamics with the geomagnetic field and its secular variation given by the COV-OBS.x1 model. Using a large ensemble with 40,000 members provides meaningful statistics including reliable error estimates. The model highlights two distinct flow scales. Slowly varying large-scale elements include the already documented eccentric gyre. Localized short-lived structures include distinctly ageostophic features like the high-latitude polar jet on the Northern Hemisphere. Comparisons with independent observations of the length-of-day variations not only validate the flow estimates but also suggest an acceleration of the geostrophic flows over the last century. Hindcasting tests show that our model outperforms simpler predictions bases (linear extrapolation and stationary flow). The predictability limit, of about 2,000 years for the magnetic dipole component, is mostly determined by the random fast varying dynamics of the flow and much less by the geomagnetic data quality or lack of small-scale information.
Flash floods and debris flows are iconic hazards inmountainous regions with steep relief, high rainfall intensities, rapid snowmelt events, and abundant sediments. The cuesta landscapes of southern Germany hardly come to mind when dealing with such hazards. A series of heavy rainstorms dumping up to 140mm in 2 h caused destructive flash floods and debris flows in May 2016. The most severe damage occurred in the Braunsbach municipality, which was partly buried by 42,000 m(3) of boulders, gravel, mud, and anthropogenic debris from the small catchment of Orlacher Bach (similar to 6 km(2)). We analysed this event by combining rainfall patterns, geological conditions, and geomorphic impacts to estimate an average sediment yield of 14,000 t/km(2) that mostly (similar to 95%) came from some 50 riparian landslides and channel-bed incision of similar to 2 m. This specific sediment yield ranks among the top 20% globally, while the intensity-duration curve of the rainstormis similarly in the upper percentile range of storms that had triggered landslides. Compared to similar-sized catchments in the greater region hit by the rainstorms, we find that the Orlacher Bach is above the 95th percentile in terms of steepness, storm-rainfall intensity, and topographic curvatures. The flash flood transported a sediment volume equal to as much as 20-40% of the Pleistocene sediment volume stored in the Orlacher Bach fan, andmay have had several predecessors in the Holocene. River control structures from 1903 and records of a debris flow in the 1920s in a nearby catchment indicate that the local inhabitants may have been aware of the debris-flow hazards earlier. Such recurring and destructive events elude flood-hazard appraisals in humid landscapes of gentle relief, and broaden mechanistic views of how landslides and debris flows contribute to shaping small and deeply cut tributaries in the southern Germany cuesta landscape.
The moment magnitude (M-w) 5.5 earthquake that struck South Korea in November 2017 was one of the largest and most damaging events in that country over the past century. Its proximity to an enhanced geothermal system site, where high-pressure hydraulic injection had been performed during the previous 2 years, raises the possibility that this earthquake was anthropogenic. We have combined seismological and geodetic analyses to characterize the mainshock and its largest aftershocks, constrain the geometry of this seismic sequence, and shed light on its causal factors. According to our analysis, it seems plausible that the occurrence of this earthquake was influenced by the aforementioned industrial activities. Finally, we found that the earthquake transferred static stress to larger nearby faults, potentially increasing the seismic hazard in the area.
Protection motivation theory (PMT) has become a popular theory to explain the risk-reducing behavior of residents against natural hazards. PMT captures the two main cognitive processes that individuals undergo when faced with a threat, namely, threat appraisal and coping appraisal. The latter describes the evaluation of possible response measures that may reduce or avert the perceived threat. Although the coping appraisal component of PMT was found to be a better predictor of protective intentions and behavior, little is known about the factors that influence individuals’ coping appraisals of natural hazards. More insight into flood-coping appraisals of PMT, therefore, are needed to better understand the decision-making process of individuals and to develop effective risk communication strategies. This study presents the results of two surveys among more than 1,600 flood-prone households in Germany and France. Five hypotheses were tested using multivariate statistics regarding factors related to flood-coping appraisals, which were derived from the PMT framework, related literature, and the literature on social vulnerability. We found that socioeconomic characteristics alone are not sufficient to explain flood-coping appraisals. Particularly, observational learning from the social environment, such as friends and neighbors, is positively related to flood-coping appraisals. This suggests that social norms and networks play an important role in flood-preparedness decisions. Providing risk and coping information can also have a positive effect. Given the strong positive influence of the social environment on flood-coping appraisals, future research should investigate how risk communication can be enhanced by making use of the observed social norms and network effects.
After a comprehensive geophysical prospecting the Quaternary MA 1/2 tina Maar, located on a line between the two Quaternary scoria cones Komorni could be revealed by a scientific drilling at the German-Czech border in 2007. Further geophysical field investigations led to the discovery of another geological structure about 2.5 km ESE of the small town Neualbenreuth (NE-Bavaria, Germany), inferred to be also a maar structure, being the fourth volcanic feature aligned along the NW-SE trending Tachov fault zone. It is only faintly indicated as a partial circular rim in the digital elevation model. Though not expressed by a clear magnetic anomaly, geoelectric and refraction seismic tomography strongly indicates a bowl-shaped depression filled with low-resistivity and low-velocity material, correlating well with the well-defined negative gravity anomaly of - 2.5 mGal. Below ca. 15 m-thick debris layer, successions of mostly laminated sediments were recovered in a 100 m-long sediment core in 2015. Sections of finely laminated layers, likely varves, rich in organic matter and tree pollen, were recognized in the upper (22-30 m) and lower (70-86 m) part of the core, respectively, interpreted as interglacials, whereas mostly minerogenic laminated deposits, poor in organic matter, and (almost) barren of tree pollen are interpreted as clastic glacial deposits. According to a preliminary age model based on magnetostratigraphy, palynology, radiocarbon dating, and cyclostratigraphy, the recovered sediments span the time window from about 85 ka back to about 270 ka, covering marine isotope stages 5-8. Sedimentation rates are in the range of 10 cm ka(-1) in interglacials and up to 100 cm ka(-1) in glacial phases. The stratigraphic record resembles the one from MA 1/2 tina Maar, with its eruption date being derived from a nearby tephra deposit at 288 +/- 17 ka, thus supporting the age model of the inferred Neualbenreuth Maar.
The use of chironomids (Diptera: Chironomidae) as indicators of changes in natural and climatic settings allows one to reconstruct paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental conditions. Based on the results of lithological and chironomid analyses, the loss on ignition (LOI) values, as well as the results of radiocarbon dating (C-14 AMS), new data on the paleoclimate in the Karelian Isthmus, in particular the quantitative reconstruction of the mean July temperature (T (July), A degrees C) in the Late Pleistocene and Holocene and the evolution of the ecosystem of Medvedevskoe Lake have been obtained.
Quantifying the pace of ice-sheet growth is critical to understanding ice-age climate and dynamics. Here, we show that the diversion of the Hudson River (northeastern North America) late in the last glaciation phase (ca. 30 ka), which some previous studies have speculated was due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), can be used to infer the timing of the Laurentide Ice Sheet’s growth to its maximum extent. Landscapes in the vicinity of glaciated regions have likely responded to crustal deformation produced by ice-sheet growth and decay through river drainage reorganization, given that rates of uplift and subsidence are on the order of tens of meters per thousand years. We perform global, gravitationally self-consistent simulations of GIA and input the predicted crustal deformation field into a landscape evolution model. Our calculations indicate that the eastward diversion of the Hudson River at 30 ka is consistent with exceptionally rapid growth of the Laurentide Ice Sheet late in the glaciation phase, beginning at 50–35 ka.
Landslide hazard motivates the need for a deeper understanding of the events that occur before, during, and after catastrophic slope failures. Due to the destructive nature of such events, in situ observation is often difficult or impossible. Here, we use data from a network of 58 seismic stations to characterise a large landslide at the Askja caldera, Iceland, on 21 July 2014. High data quality and extensive network coverage allow us to analyse both long- and short-period signals associated with the landslide, and thereby obtain information about its triggering, initiation, timing, and propagation. At long periods, a landslide force history inversion shows that the Askja landslide was a single, large event starting at the SE corner of the caldera lake at 23:24:05 UTC and propagating to the NW in the following 2 min The bulk sliding mass was 7-16 x 10(10) kg, equivalent to a collapsed volume of 35-80 x 10(6) m(3). The sliding mass was displaced downslope by 1260 +/- 250 m. At short periods, a seismic tremor was observed for 30 min before the landslide. The tremor is approximately harmonic with a fundamental frequency of 2.3 Hz and shows time-dependent changes of its frequency content. We attribute the seismic tremor to stick-slip motion along the landslide failure plane. Accelerating motion leading up to the catastrophic slope failure culminated in an aseismic quiescent period for 2 min before the landslide. We propose that precursory seismic signals may be useful in landslide early-warning systems. The 8 h after the main landslide failure are characterised by smaller slope failures originating from the destabilised caldera wall decaying in frequency and magnitude. We introduce the term "afterslides" for this subsequent, declining slope activity after a large landslide.
A comprehensive hydro-sedimentological dataset for the Isabena catchment, northeastern (NE) Spain, for the period 2010-2018 is presented to analyse water and sediment fluxes in a Mediterranean mesoscale catchment. The dataset includes rainfall data from 12 rain gauges distributed within the study area complemented by meteorological data of 12 official meteo-stations. It comprises discharge data derived from water stage measurements as well as suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs) at six gauging stations of the River Isabena and its sub-catchments. Soil spectroscopic data from 351 suspended sediment samples and 152 soil samples were collected to characterize sediment source regions and sediment properties via fingerprinting analyses. The Isabena catchment (445 km(2)) is located in the southern central Pyrenees ranging from 450 m to 2720 m a.s.l.; together with a pronounced topography, this leads to distinct temperature and precipitation gradients. The River Isabena shows marked discharge variations and high sediment yields causing severe siltation problems in the downstream Barasona Reservoir. The main sediment source is badland areas located on Eocene marls that are well connected to the river network. The dataset features a comprehensive set of variables in a high spatial and temporal resolution suitable for the advanced process understanding of water and sediment fluxes, their origin and connectivity and sediment budgeting and for the evaluation and further development of hydro-sedimentological models in Mediterranean mesoscale mountainous catchments.
For over a century, geomorphologists have attempted to unravel information about landscape evolution, and processes that drive it, using river profiles. Many studies have combined new topographic datasets with theoretical models of channel incision to infer erosion rates, identify rock types with different resistance to erosion, and detect potential regions of tectonic activity. The most common metric used to analyse river profile geometry is channel steepness, or k(s). However, the calculation of channel steepness requires the normalisation of channel gradient by drainage area. This normalisation requires a power law exponent that is referred to as the channel concavity index. Despite the concavity index being crucial in determining channel steepness, it is challenging to constrain. In this contribution, we compare both slope-area methods for calculating the concavity index and methods based on integrating drainage area along the length of the channel, using so-called "chi" (chi) analysis. We present a new chi-based method which directly compares chi values of tributary nodes to those on the main stem; this method allows us to constrain the concavity index in transient landscapes without assuming a linear relationship between chi and elevation. Patterns of the concavity index have been linked to the ratio of the area and slope exponents of the stream power incision model (m/n); we therefore construct simple numerical models obeying detachment-limited stream power and test the different methods against simulations with imposed m and n. We find that chi-based methods are better than slope-area methods at reproducing imposed m/n ratios when our numerical landscapes are subject to either transient uplift or spatially varying uplift and fluvial erodibility. We also test our methods on several real landscapes, including sites with both lithological and structural heterogeneity, to provide examples of the methods' performance and limitations. These methods are made available in a new software package so that other workers can explore how the concavity index varies across diverse landscapes, with the aim to improve our understanding of the physics behind bedrock channel incision.
The impact of reservoir heterogeneities on High-Temperature aquifer thermal energy storage systems
(2018)
We conducted a geoscientific feasibility study for the development of a high-temperature thermal aquifer energy storage system (HT-ATES) outside the capital of Muscat, northern Oman. The aquifer storage is part of a solar geothermal cooling project for the sustainable and continuous cooling of office buildings. The main concept is that excess solar energy will be stored in the subsurface through hot water injection and subsequently utilised as auxiliary energy source during peak demand times. The characterisation of aquifer heterogeneities is thus essential to predict subsurface thermal heat plume development and recovery efficiency of the storage system. We considered two aquifer systems as potential storage horizons, (i) a clastic-dominated alluvial fan system where individual channel systems in combination with diagenetic alterations constitute the main heterogeneities and (ii) a carbonate-dominated system represented by a homogenous layer-cake architecture. The feasibility study included a multidisciplinary approach from initial field work, geocellular reservoir modelling to finite element fluid flow and thermal modelling. Our results show that for the HT-ATES system, with a high frequency of injection and production cycles, heat loss mainly occurs due to heterogeneities in the permeability field of the aquifer in combination with buoyancy driven vertical fluid flow. An impermeable cap-rock is needed to keep the heat plume in place. Conductive heat loss is a minor issue. Highly complex heat plume geometries are apparent in the clastic channel system and ATES well planning is challenging due to the complex and interconnected high permeable channels. The carbonate sequence shows uniform plume geometries due to the layer cake architecture of the system and is tentatively more suitable for ATES development. Based on our findings we propose the general concept of HT-ATES traps, incorporating and building on expertise and knowledge from petroleum and reservoir geology regarding reservoir rocks and suitable trap&seal geometries. The concept can be used as guideline for future high-temperature aquifer storage exploration and development.