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Institute
- Institut für Geowissenschaften (298) (remove)
River restoration is a main emphasis of river management in European countries. Cross-national comparisons of its implementation are still rare in scientific literature. Based on French and German national censuses, this study compares river restoration practices and monitoring by analysing 102 French and 270 German projects. This comparison aims to draw a spatial and temporal framework of restoration practices in both countries to identify potential drivers of cross-national similarities and differences. The results underline four major trends: (1) a lag of almost 15 years in river restoration implementation between France and Germany, with a consequently higher share of projects in Germany than in France, (2) substantial similarities in restored reach characteristics, short reach length, small rivers, and in "agricultural" areas, (3) good correspondences between stressors identified and restoration measures implemented. Morphological alterations were the most important highlighted stressors. River morphology enhancement, especially instream enhancements, were the most frequently implemented restoration measures. Some differences exist in specific restoration practices, as river continuity restoration were most frequently implemented in French projects, while large wood introduction or channel re-braiding were most frequently implemented in German projects, and (4) some quantitative and qualitative differences in monitoring practices and a significant lack of project monitoring, especially in Germany compared to France. These similarities and differences between Germany and France in restoration application and monitoring possibly result from a complex set of drivers that might be difficult to untangle (e.g., environmental, technical, political, cultural).
Disentangling shallow‐water bulk carbonate carbon isotope archives into primary and diagenetic components is a notoriously difficult task and even diagenetically screened records often provide chemostratigraphic patterns that significantly differ from global signals. This is mainly caused by the polygenetic nature of shallow‐water carbonate substrates, local carbon cycle processes causing considerable neritic–pelagic isotope gradients and the presence of hiatal surfaces resulting in extremely low carbonate preservation rates. Provided here is an in‐depth petrographic and geochemical evaluation of different carbonate phases of a mid‐Cretaceous (Barremian–Aptian) shallow‐water limestone succession (Jabal Madar section) deposited on the tropical Arabian carbonate platform in Oman. The superposition of stable isotope signatures of identified carbonate phases causes a complex and often noisy bulk carbon isotope pattern. Blocky sparite cements filling intergranular pores and bioclastic voids evidence intermediate to (arguably) deep burial diagenetic conditions during their formation, owing to different timing or differential faulting promoting the circulation of fluids from variable sources. In contrast, sparite cements filling sub‐vertical veins reveal a rock‐buffered diagenetic fluid composition with an intriguing moderate enrichment in 13C, probably due to fractionation during pressure release in the context of the Miocene exhumation of the carbonate platform under study. The presence of abundant, replacive dedolomite in mud‐supported limestone samples forced negative carbon and oxygen isotope changes that are either associated with the thermal breakdown of organic matter in the deep burial realm or the expulsion of buried meteoric water in the intermediate burial realm. Notwithstanding the documented stratigraphically variable and often facies‐related impact of different diagenetic fluids on the bulk‐rock stable isotope signature, the identification of diagenetic end‐members defined δ13C and δ18O threshold values that allowed the most reliable ‘primary’ bulk carbon isotope signatures to be extracted. Most importantly, this approach exemplifies how to place regional shallow‐water stable isotope patterns with evidence for a complex multi‐stage diagenetic history into a supraregional or even global context.
This study combines spaceborne multitemporal and hyperspectral data to analyze the spatial distribution of surface evaporite minerals and changes in a semi-arid depositional environment associated with episodic flooding events, the Omongwa salt pan (Kalahari, Namibia). The dynamic of the surface crust is evaluated by a change-detection approach using the Iterative-reweighted Multivariate Alteration Detection (IR-MAD) based on the Landsat archive imagery from 1984 to 2015. The results show that the salt pan is a highly dynamic and heterogeneous landform. A change gradient is observed from very stable pan border to a highly dynamic central pan. On the basis of hyperspectral EO-1 Hyperion images, the current distribution of surface evaporite minerals is characterized using Spectral Mixture Analysis (SMA). Assessment of field and image endmembers revealed that the pan surface can be categorized into three major crust types based on diagnostic absorption features and mineralogical ground truth data. The mineralogical crust types are related to different zones of surface change as well as pan morphology that influences brine flow during the pan inundation and desiccation cycles. These combined information are used to spatially map depositional environments where the more dynamic halite crust concentrates in lower areas although stable gypsum and calcite/sepiolite crusts appear in higher elevated areas.
High precipitation quantiles tend to rise with temperature, following the so-called Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling. It is often reported that the CC-scaling relation breaks down and even reverts for very high temperatures. In our study, we investigate this reversal using observational climate data from 142 stations across Germany. One of the suggested meteorological explanations for the breakdown is limited moisture supply. Here we argue that, instead, it could simply originate from undersampling. As rainfall frequency generally decreases with higher temperatures, rainfall intensities as dictated by CC scaling are less likely to be recorded than for moderate temperatures. Empirical quantiles are conventionally estimated from order statistics via various forms of plotting position formulas. They have in common that their largest representable return period is given by the sample size. In small samples, high quantiles are underestimated accordingly. The small-sample effect is weaker, or disappears completely, when using parametric quantile estimates from a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) fitted with L moments. For those, we obtain quantiles of rainfall intensities that continue to rise with temperature.
The SEIS (Seismic Experiment for Interior Structure) instrument onboard the InSight mission will be the first seismometer directly deployed on the surface of Mars. From studies on the Earth and the Moon, it is well known that site amplification in low-velocity sediments on top of more competent rocks has a strong influence on seismic signals, but can also be used to constrain the subsurface structure. Here we simulate ambient vibration wavefields in a model of the shallow sub-surface at the InSight landing site in Elysium Planitia and demonstrate how the high-frequency Rayleigh wave ellipticity can be extracted from these data and inverted for shallow structure. We find that, depending on model parameters, higher mode ellipticity information can be extracted from single-station data, which significantly reduces uncertainties in inversion. Though the data are most sensitive to properties of the upper-most layer and show a strong trade-off between layer depth and velocity, it is possible to estimate the velocity and thickness of the sub-regolith layer by using reasonable constraints on regolith properties. Model parameters are best constrained if either higher mode data can be used or additional constraints on regolith properties from seismic analysis of the hammer strokes of InSight’s heat flow probe HP3 are available. In addition, the Rayleigh wave ellipticity can distinguish between models with a constant regolith velocity and models with a velocity increase in the regolith, information which is difficult to obtain otherwise.
Temperature is a key factor controlling plant growth and vitality in the temperate climates of the mid-latitudes like in vast parts of the European continent. Beyond the effect of average conditions, the timings and magnitudes of temperature extremes play a particularly crucial role, which needs to be better understood in the context of projected future rises in the frequency and/or intensity of such events. In this work, we employ event coincidence analysis (ECA) to quantify the likelihood of simultaneous occurrences of extremes in daytime land surface temperature anomalies (LSTAD) and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). We perform this analysis for entire Europe based upon remote sensing data, differentiating between three periods corresponding to different stages of plant development during the growing season. In addition, we analyze the typical elevation and land cover type of the regions showing significantly large event coincidences rates to identify the most severely affected vegetation types. Our results reveal distinct spatio-temporal impact patterns in terms of extraordinarily large co-occurrence rates between several combinations of temperature and NDVI extremes. Croplands are among the most frequently affected land cover types, while elevation is found to have only a minor effect on the spatial distribution of corresponding extreme weather impacts. These findings provide important insights into the vulnerability of European terrestrial ecosystems to extreme temperature events and demonstrate how event-based statistics like ECA can provide a valuable perspective on environmental nexuses.
Sedimentary lipid biomarkers have become widely used tools for reconstructing past climatic and ecological changes due to their ubiquitous occurrence in lake sediments. In particular, the hydrogen isotopic composition (expressed as delta D values) of leaf wax lipids derived from terrestrial plants has been a focus of research during the last two decades and the understanding of competing environmental and plant physiological factors influencing the delta D values has greatly improved. Comparatively less attention has been paid to lipid biomarkers derived from aquatic plants, although these compounds are abundant in many lacustrine sediments. We therefore conducted a field and laboratory experiment to study the effect of salinity and groundwater discharge on the isotopic composition of aquatic plant biomarkers. We analyzed samples of the common submerged plant species, Potamogeton pectinatus (sago pondweed), which has a wide geographic distribution and can tolerate high salinity. We tested the effect of groundwater discharge (characterized by more negative delta D values relative to lake water) and salinity on the delta D values of n-alkanes from P. pectinatus by comparing plants (i) collected from the oligotrophic freshwater Lake Stechlin (Germany) at shallow littoral depth from locations with and without groundwater discharge, and (ii) plants grown from tubers collected from the eutrophic Lake Muggelsee in nutrient solution at four salinity levels. Isotopically depleted groundwater did not have a significant influence on the delta D values of n-alkanes in Lake Stechlin P. pectinatus and calculated isotopic fractionation factors epsilon(l/w) between lake water and n-alkanes averaged -137 +/- 9%(n-C-23), -136 +/- 7%(n-C-25) and -131 +/- 6%(n-C-27), respectively. Similar epsilon values were calculated for plants from Lake Muggelsee grown in freshwater nutrient solution (-134 +/- 11% for n-C-23), while greater fractionation was observed at increased salinity values of 10 (163 +/- 12%) and 15(-172 +/- 15%). We therefore suggest an average e value of -136 +/- 9% between source water and the major n-alkanes in P. pectinatus grown under freshwater conditions. Our results demonstrate that isotopic fractionation can increase by 30-40% at salinity values 10 and 15. These results could be explained either by inhibited plant growth at higher salinity, or by metabolic adaptation to salt stress that remain to be elucidated. A potential salinity effect on dD values of aquatic lipids requires further examination, since this would impact on the interpretation of downcore isotopic data in paleohydrologic studies. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Inherited rheological structures in the lithosphere are expected to have large impact on the architecture of continental rifts. The Turkana depression in the East African Rift connects the Main Ethiopian Rift to the north with the Kenya rift in the south. This region is characterized by a NW-SE trending band of thinned crust inherited from a Mesozoic rifting event, which is cutting the present-day N-S rift trend at high angle. In striking contrast to the narrow rifts in Ethiopia and Kenya, extension in the Turkana region is accommodated in subparallel deformation domains that are laterally distributed over several hundred kilometers. We present both analog experiments and numerical models that reproduce the along-axis transition from narrow rifting in Ethiopia and Kenya to a distributed deformation within the Turkana depression. Similarly to natural observations, our models show that the Ethiopian and Kenyan rifts bend away from each other within the Turkana region, thus forming a right-lateral step over and avoiding a direct link to form a continuous N-S depression. The models reveal five potential types of rift linkage across the preexisting basin: three types where rifts bend away from the inherited structure connecting via a (1) wide or (2) narrow rift or by (3) forming a rotating microplate, (4) a type where rifts bend towards it, and (5) straight rift linkage. The fact that linkage type 1 is realized in the Turkana region provides new insights on the rheological configuration of the Mesozoic rift system at the onset of the recent rift episode. Plain Language Summary The Turkana depression in the Kenya/Ethiopia borderland is most famous for its several million years old human fossils, but it also holds a rich geological history of continental separation. The Turkana region is a lowland located between the East African and Ethiopian domes because its crust and mantle have been stretched in a continent-wide rift event during Cretaceous times about 140-120 Ma ago. This thin lithosphere exerted paramount control on the dynamics of East African rifting in this area, which commenced around 15 Ma ago and persists until today. Combining analog "sandbox" experiments with numerical geodynamic modeling, we find that inherited rift structures explain the dramatic change in rift style from deep, narrow rift basins north and south of the Turkana area to wide, distributed deformation within the Turkana depression. The failed Cretaceous rift is also responsible for the eastward bend of the Ethiopian rift and the westward bend of the Kenyan rift when entering the Turkana depression, which generated the characteristic hook-shaped form of present-day Lake Turkana. Combing two independent modeling techniques-analog and numerical experiments-is a very promising approach allowing to draw robust conclusions about the processes that shape the surface of our planet.
Accurate time series representation of paleoclimatic proxy records is challenging because such records involve dating errors in addition to proxy measurement errors. Rigorous attention is rarely given to age uncertainties in paleoclimatic research, although the latter can severely bias the results of proxy record analysis. Here, we introduce a Bayesian approach to represent layer-counted proxy records - such as ice cores, sediments, corals, or tree rings - as sequences of probability distributions on absolute, error-free time axes. The method accounts for both proxy measurement errors and uncertainties arising from layer-counting-based dating of the records. An application to oxygen isotope ratios from the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP) record reveals that the counting errors, although seemingly small, lead to substantial uncertainties in the final representation of the oxygen isotope ratios. In particular, for the older parts of the NGRIP record, our results show that the total uncertainty originating from dating errors has been seriously underestimated. Our method is next applied to deriving the overall uncertainties of the Suigetsu radiocarbon comparison curve, which was recently obtained from varved sediment cores at Lake Suigetsu, Japan. This curve provides the only terrestrial radiocarbon comparison for the time interval 12.5-52.8 kyr BP. The uncertainties derived here can be readily employed to obtain complete error estimates for arbitrary radiometrically dated proxy records of this recent part of the last glacial interval.
One of the most significant Late Holocene climate shifts occurred around 2800 years ago, when cooler and wetter climate conditions established in western Europe. This shift coincided with an abrupt change in regional atmospheric circulation between 2760 and 2560 cal years BP, which has been linked to a grand solar minimum with the same duration (the Homeric Minimum). We investigated the temporal sequence of hydroclimatic and vegetation changes across this interval of climatic change (Homeric climate oscillation) by using lipid biomarker stable hydrogen isotope ratios (ED values) and pollen assemblages from the annually-laminated sediment record from lake Meerfelder Maar (Germany). Over the investigated interval (3200-2000 varve years BP), terrestrial lipid biomarker ED showed a gradual trend to more negative values, consistent with the western Europe long-term climate trend of the Late Holocene. At ca. 2640 varve years BP we identified a strong increase in aquatic plants and algal remains, indicating a rapid change in the aquatic ecosystem superimposed on this long-term trend. Interestingly, this aquatic ecosystem change was accompanied by large changes in ED values of aquatic lipid biomarkers, such as nC(21) and nC(23) (by between 22 and 30%(0)). As these variations cannot solely be explained by hydroclimate changes, we suggest that these changes in the Wag value were influenced by changes in n-alkane source organisms. Our results illustrate that if ubiquitous aquatic lipid biomarkers are derived from a limited pool of organisms, changes in lake ecology can be a driving factor for variations on sedimentary lipid MN values, which then could be easily misinterpreted in terms of hydro climatic changes. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
role of subducted slabs
(2017)
On trend detection
(2017)
A main obstacle to trend detection in time series occurs when they are autocorrelated. By reducing the effective sample size of a series, autocorrelation leads to decreased trend significance. Numerous recipes attempt to mitigate the effect of autocorrelation, either by adjusting for the reduced effective sample size or by removing the autocorrelated components of a series. This short note deals with the latter, also called prewhitening (PW). It is known that removal of autocorrelation also removes part of the trend, which may affect the signal-to-noise ratio. Two popular methods have dealt with this problem, the trend-free prewhitening (TFPW) and the iterative prewhitening. Although it is generally accepted that both methods reduce the adverse effects of PW on the trend magnitude, corresponding effects on statistical significance have not been clearly stated for TFPW. Using a Monte Carlo approach, it is demonstrated that both methods entail quite different Type-I error rates. The iterative prewhitening produces rates that are generally close to the nominal significance level. The TFPW, however, shows very high Type-I error rates with increasing autocorrelation. The corresponding rate of false trend detections is unacceptable for applications, so that published trends based on TFPW need to be reassessed.
We investigated chironomid assemblages of a well-dated sediment core from a small seepage lake situated at the eastern slope of the Central Kamchatka Mountain Chain, Far East Russia. The chironomid fauna of the investigated Sigrid Lake is dominated by littoral taxa that are sensitive to fluctuations of the water level. Two groups of taxa interchangeably dominate the record responding to the changes in the lake environment during the past 2800 years. The first group of littoral phytophilic taxa includes Psectrocladius sordidellus-type, Corynoneura arctica-type and Dicrotendipes nervosus-type. The abundances of the taxa from this group have the strongest influence on the variations of PCA 1, and these taxa mostly correspond to low water levels, moderate temperatures and slightly acidified conditions. The second group of taxa includes Microtendipes pedellus-type, Tanytarsus lugens-type, and Tanytarsus pallidicornistype. The variations in the abundances of these taxa, and especially of M. pedellus-type, are in accordance with PCA 2 and correspond to the higher water level in the lake, more oligotrophic and neutral pH conditions. Water depths (WD) were reconstructed, using a modern chironomid-based temperature and water depth calibration data set (training set) and inference model from East Siberia (Nazarova et al., 2011). Mean July air temperatures (T July) were inferred using a chironomid-based temperature inference model based on a modern calibration data set for the Far East (Nazarova et al., 2015). The application of transfer functions resulted in reconstructed T July fluctuations of approximately 3 degrees C over the last 2800 years. Low temperatures (11.0-12.0 degrees C) were reconstructed for the periods between ca 1700 and 1500 cal yr BP (corresponding to the Kofun cold stage) and between ca 1200 and 150 cal yr BP (partly corresponding to the Little Ice Age [LIA]). Warm periods (modern T July or higher) were reconstructed for the periods between ca 2700 and 1800 cal yr BP, 1500 and 1300 cal yr BP and after 150 cal yr BP. WD reconstruction revealed that the lake level was lower than its present level at the beginning of the record between ca 2600 and 2300 cal yr BP and ca 550 cal yr BP. Between ca 2300 and 700 cal yr BP as well as between 450 and 150 cal yr BP, the lake level was higher than it is today, most probably reflecting more humid conditions. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.
Climate change is expected to exacerbate the current threats to freshwater ecosystems, yet multifaceted studies on the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity at scales that inform management planning are lacking. The aim of this study was to fill this void through the development of a novel framework for assessing climate change vulnerability tailored to freshwater ecosystems. The three dimensions of climate change vulnerability are as follows: (i) exposure to climate change, (ii) sensitivity to altered environmental conditions and (iii) resilience potential. Our vulnerability framework includes 1685 freshwater species of plants, fishes, molluscs, odonates, amphibians, crayfish and turtles alongside key features within and between catchments, such as topography and connectivity. Several methodologies were used to combine these dimensions across a variety of future climate change models and scenarios. The resulting indices were overlaid to assess the vulnerability of European freshwater ecosystems at the catchment scale (18 783 catchments). The Balkan Lakes Ohrid and Prespa and Mediterranean islands emerge as most vulnerable to climate change. For the 2030s, we showed a consensus among the applied methods whereby up to 573 lake and river catchments are highly vulnerable to climate change. The anthropogenic disruption of hydrological habitat connectivity by dams is the major factor reducing climate change resilience. A gap analysis demonstrated that the current European protected area network covers <25% of the most vulnerable catchments. Practical steps need to be taken to ensure the persistence of freshwater biodiversity under climate change. Priority should be placed on enhancing stakeholder cooperation at the major basin scale towards preventing further degradation of freshwater ecosystems and maintaining connectivity among catchments. The catchments identified as most vulnerable to climate change provide preliminary targets for development of climate change conservation management and mitigation strategies.
Low-relief plateaus separated by deeply incised fjords are hallmarks of glaciated, passive continental margins. Spectacular examples fringe the once ice-covered North Atlantic coasts of Greenland, Norway and Canada, but low-relief plateau landscapes also underlie present-day ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland. Dissected plateaus have long been viewed as the outcome of selective linear erosion by ice sheets that focus incision in glacial troughs, leaving the intervening landscapes essentially unaffected. According to this hypothesis, the plateaus are remnants of preglacial low-relief topography. However, here we use computational experiments to show that, like fjords, plateaus are emergent properties of long-term ice-sheet erosion. Ice sheets can either increase or decrease subglacial relief depending on the wavelength of the underlying topography, and plateau topography arises dynamically from evolving feedbacks between topography, ice dynamics and erosion over million-year timescales. This new mechanistic explanation for plateau formation opens the possibility of plateaus contributing significantly to accelerated sediment flux at the onset of the late Cenozoic glaciations, before becoming stable later in the Quaternary.
Large-scale commercial cropping of soybeans expanded in the tropical Amazon and Cerrado biomes of Brazil after 1990. More recently, cropping intensified from single-cropping of soybeans to double-cropping of soybeans with corn or cotton. Cropland expansion and intensification, and the accompanying use of mineral fertilizers, raise concerns about whether nutrient runoff and impacts to surface waters will be similar to those experienced in commercial cropland regions at temperate latitudes. We quantified water infiltration through soils, water yield, and streamwater chemistry in watersheds draining native tropical forest and single-and double-cropped areas on the level, deep, highly weathered soils where cropland expansion and intensification typically occurs. Although water yield increased four-fold from croplands, streamwater chemistry remained largely unchanged. Soil characteristics exerted important control over the movement of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) into streams. High soil infiltration rates prevented surface erosion and movement of particulate P, while P fixation in surface soils restricted P movement to deeper soil layers. Nitrogen retention in deep soils, likely by anion exchange, also appeared to limit N leaching and export in streamwater from both single-and double-cropped watersheds that received nitrogen fertilizer. These mechanisms led to lower streamwater P and N concentrations and lower watershed N and P export than would be expected, based on studies from temperate croplands with similar cropping and fertilizer application practices.
Preceramic human skeletal remains preserved in submerged caves near Tulum in the Mexican state of Quintana Roo, Mexico, reveal conflicting results regarding C-14 dating. Here we use U-series techniques for dating a stalagmite overgrowing the pelvis of a human skeleton discovered in the submerged Chan Hol cave. The oldest closed system U/Th age comes from around 21 mm above the pelvis defining the terminus ante quem for the pelvis to 11311 +/- 370 y BP. However, the skeleton might be considerable older, probably as old as 13 ky BP as indicated by the speleothem stable isotope data. The Chan Hol individual confirms a late Pleistocene settling of Mesoamerica and represents one of the oldest human osteological remains in America.
Testing socio-cultural valuation methods of ecosystem services to explain land use preferences
(2017)
Socio-cultural valuation still emerges as a methodological field in ecosystem service (ES) research and until now lacks consistent formalisation and balanced application in ES assessments. In this study, we examine the explanatory value of ES values for land use preferences. We use 563 responses to a survey about the Pentland Hills regional park in Scotland. Specifically, we aim to (1) identify clusters of land use preferences by using a novel visualisation tool, (2) test if socio-cultural values of ESs or (3) user characteristics are linked with land use preferences, and (4) determine whether both socio-cultural values of ESs and user characteristics can predict land use preferences. Our results suggest that there are five groups of people with different land use preferences, ranging from forest and nature enthusiasts to traditionalists, multi-functionalists and recreation seekers. Rating and weighting of ESs and user characteristics were associated with different clusters. Neither socio-cultural values nor user characteristics were suitable predictors for land use preferences. While several studies have explored land use preferences by identifying socio-cultural values in the past, our findings imply that in this case study ES values inform about general perceptions but do not replace the assessment of land use preferences. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license.
Kijko et al. (2016) present various methods to estimate parameters that are relevant for probabilistic seismic-hazard assessment. One of these parameters, although not the most influential, is the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max). I show that the proposed estimation of m(max) is based on an erroneous equation related to a misuse of the estimator in Cooke (1979) and leads to unstable results. So far, reported finite estimations of m(max) arise from data selection, because the estimator in Kijko et al. (2016) diverges with finite probability. This finding is independent of the assumed distribution of earthquake magnitudes. For the specific choice of the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution, I illustrate the problems by deriving explicit equations. Finally, I conclude that point estimators are generally not a suitable approach to constrain m(max).
We report the chronological construction for the top portion of a speleothem, PC1, from southern Cambodia with the aim of reconstructing a continuous high-resolution climate record covering the fluorescence and decline of the medieval Khmer kingdom and its capital at Angkor (similar to 9th-15th centuries AD). Earlier attempts to date PC1 by the standard U-Th method proved unsuccessful. We have therefore dated this speleothem using radiocarbon. Fifty carbonate samples along the growth axis of PC1 were collected for accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) analysis. Chronological reconstruction for PC1 was achieved using two different approaches described by Hua et al. (2012a) and Lechleitner et al. (2016a). Excellent concordance between the two age-depth models indicates that the top similar to 47 mm of PC1 grew during the last millennium with a growth hiatus during similar to 1250-1650 AD, resulting from a large change in measured C-14 values at 34.4-35.2 mm depth. The timing of the growth hiatus covers the period of decades-long droughts during the 14th-16th centuries AD indicated in regional climate records.
Scarce research about small European rivers from non-human impacted areas to determine their natural background state has been undertaken. During the annual hydrological cycle of 2008-9 the patterns of particulate supply (SPM, POC, PON, Al, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Ni, Pb, V, Zn) from the rivers Sor, Mera Landro, Lourido and Landoi to the Northern Galician Rias (SW Bay of Biscay) were tackled. No differences in the composition of the SPM were detected for the studied rivers regarding Al, Fe and POC but the relative percentage of particulate trace elements (PTE) discriminate the rivers. So, Cr, Co and Ni in the Lourido, and Landoi rivers, and Cu in the Mera River, are controlled by watershed minerals of Ortegal Geological Complex while for the rest rivers PTE are by granitic and Ollo de Sapo bedrock watershed. Therefore, the imprint of PTE in the parental rocks of the river basins is reflected on the coastal sediments of the Rias. The main process controlling the dynamics and variations of chemical elements in the particulate form is the river discharge. This fact exemplifies that these rivers presents a natural behavior not being highly influenced by anthropogenic activities.
This review analyzes the potential role and long-term effects of field perennial polycultures (mixtures) in agricultural systems, with the aim of reducing the trade-offs between provisioning and regulating ecosystem services. First, crop rotations are identified as a suitable tool for the assessment of the long-term effects of perennial polycultures on ecosystem services, which are not visible at the single-crop level. Second, the ability of perennial polycultures to support ecosystem services when used in crop rotations is quantified through eight agricultural ecosystem services. Legume-grass mixtures and wildflower mixtures are used as examples of perennial polycultures, and compared with silage maize as a typical crop for biomass production. Perennial polycultures enhance soil fertility, soil protection, climate regulation, pollination, pest and weed control, and landscape aesthetics compared with maize. They also score lower for biomass production compared with maize, which confirms the trade-off between provisioning and regulating ecosystem services. However, the additional positive factors provided by perennial polycultures, such as reduced costs for mineral fertilizer, pesticides, and soil tillage, and a significant preceding crop effect that increases the yields of subsequent crops, should be taken into account. However, a full assessment of agricultural ecosystem services requires a more holistic analysis that is beyond the capabilities of current frameworks.
Winter precipitation forecast in the European and mediterranean regions using cluster analysis
(2017)
The European climate is changing under global warming, and especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as a hot spot for climate change with climate models projecting a reduction in winter rainfall and a very pronounced increase in summertime heat waves. These trends are already detectable over the historic period. Hence, it is beneficial to forecast seasonal droughts well in advance so that water managers and stakeholders can prepare to mitigate deleterious impacts. We developed a new cluster-based empirical forecast method to predict precipitation anomalies in winter. This algorithm considers not only the strength but also the pattern of the precursors. We compare our algorithm with dynamic forecast models and a canonical correlation analysis-based prediction method demonstrating that our prediction method performs better in terms of time and pattern correlation in the Mediterranean and European regions.
The shape of trait distributions may inform about the selective forces that structure ecological communities. Here, we present a new moment-based approach to classify the shape of observed biomass-weighted trait distributions into normal, peaked, skewed, or bimodal that facilitates spatio-temporal and cross-system comparisons. Our observed phytoplankton trait distributions exhibited substantial variance and were mostly skewed or bimodal rather than normal. Additionally, mean, variance, skewness und kurtosis were strongly correlated. This is in conflict with trait-based aggregate models that often assume normally distributed trait values and small variances. Given these discrepancies between our data and general model assumptions we used the observed trait distributions to test how well different aggregate models with first- or second-order approximations and different types of moment closure predict the biomass, mean trait, and trait variance dynamics using weakly or moderately nonlinear fitness functions. For weakly non-linear fitness functions aggregate models with a second-order approximation and a data-based moment closure that relied on the observed correlations between skewness and mean, and kurtosis and variance predicted biomass and often also mean trait changes fairly well and better than models with first-order approximations or a normal-based moment closure. In contrast, none of the models reflected the changes of the trait variances reliably. Aggregate model performance was often also poor for moderately nonlinear fitness functions. This questions a general applicability of the normal-based approach, in particular for predicting variance dynamics determining the speed of trait changes and maintenance of biodiversity. We evaluate in detail how and why better approximations can be obtained.
The Chelyabinsk meteorite
(2017)
We present results of petrographic, mineralogical, and chemical investigations of three Chelyabinsk meteorite fragments. Three distinct lithologies were identified: light S3LL5, dark S4-S5LL5 material, and opaque fine-grained former impact melt. Olivine-spinel thermometry revealed an equilibration temperature of 703 +/- 23 degrees C for the light lithology. All plagioclase seems to be secondary, showing neither shock-induced fractures nor sulfide-metal veinlets. Feldspathic glass can be observed showing features of extensive melting and, in the dark lithology, as maskelynite, lacking melt features and retaining grain boundaries of former plagioclase. Olivine of the dark lithology shows planar deformation features. Impact melt is dominated by Mg-rich olivine and resembles whole-rock melt. Melt veins (<2mm) are connected to narrower veinlets. Melt vein textures are similar to pegmatite textures showing chilled margins, a zone of inward-grown elongated crystals and central vugs, suggesting crystallization from supercooled melt. Sulfide-metal droplets indicate liquid immiscibility of both silicate and sulfide as well as sulfide and metal melts. Impact melting may have been an important factor for differentiation of primitive planetary bodies. Graphite associated with micrometer-sized melt inclusions in primary olivine was detected by Raman mapping. Carbon isotopic studies of graphite could be applied to test a possible presolar origin.
Density dependence is of fundamental importance for population and range dynamics. Density-dependent reproduction of plants arises from competitive and facilitative plant-plant interactions that can be pollination independent or pollination mediated. In small and sparse populations, conspecific density dependence often turns from negative to positive and causes Allee effects. Reproduction may also increase with heterospecific density (community-level Allee effect), but the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood and the consequences for community dynamics can be complex. Allee effects have crucial consequences for the conservation of declining species, but also the dynamics of range edge populations. In invasive species, Allee effects may slow or stop range expansion. Observational studies in natural plant communities cannot distinguish whether reproduction is limited by pollination-mediated interactions among plants or by other neighbourhood effects (e.g. competition for abiotic resources). Even experimental pollen supply cannot distinguish whether variation in reproduction is caused by direct density effects or by plant traits correlated with density. Finally, it is unknown over which spatial scales pollination-mediated interactions occur. To circumvent these problems, we introduce a comprehensive experimental and analytical framework which simultaneously (1) manipulates pollen availability and quality by hand pollination and pollinator exclusion, (2) manipulates neighbourhoods by transplanting target plants, and (3) analyses the effects of con- and heterospecific neighbourhoods on reproduction with spatially explicit trait-based neighbourhood models. Synthesis. By manipulating both pollen availability and target plant locations within neighbourhoods, we can comprehensively analyse spatially explicit density dependence of plant reproduction. This experimental approach enhances our ability to understand the dynamics of sparse populations and of species geographical ranges.
Due to increasing pressure on estuarine marshes from sea level rise and river training, there is a growing need to understand how species-environment relationships influence the zonation and growth of tidal marsh vegetation. In the present study, we investigated the distribution and stand characteristics of the two key brackish marsh species Bolboschoenus maritimus and Phragmites australis in the Elbe estuary together with several abiotic habitat factors. We then tested the effect of these habitat factors on plant growth and zonation with generalised linear models (GLMs). Our study provides detailed information on the importance of single habitat factors and their interactions for controlling the distribution patterns and stand characteristics of two key marsh species. Our results suggest that flow velocity is the main factor influencing species distribution and stand characteristics and together with soil-water salinity even affects the inundation tolerance of the two specie investigated here. Additionally, inundation height and duration as well as interspecific competition helped explain the distribution patterns and stand characteristics. By identifying the drivers of marsh zonation and stand characteristics and quantifying their effects, this study provides useful information for evaluating a future contribution of tidal marsh vegetation to ecosystem-based shore protection.
The Bajgan Complex, one of the basement constituents of the arc massif in Iranian Makran forms a rugged, deeply incised terrain. The complex consists of pelitic schists with minor psammitic and basic schists, calc silicate rocks, amphibolites, marbles, metavolcanosediments, mafic and felsic intrusives as well as ultramafic rocks. Metapelitic rocks show an amphibolite facies regional metamorphism and contain garnet, biotite, white mica, quartz, albite ± rutile ± apatite. Thermobarometry of garnet schist yields pressure of more than 9 kbar and temperatures between 560 and 675 °C. The geothermal gradient obtained for the peak of regional metamorphism is 19 °C/km, corresponding to a depth of ca. 31 km. Replacement of garnet by chlorite and epidote suggest greenschist facies metamorphism due to a decrease in temperature and pressure through exhumation and retrograde metamorphism (370–450 °C and 3–6 kbar). The metapelitic rocks followed a ‘clockwise’ P–T path during metamorphism, consistent with thermal decline following tectonic thickening. The formation of medium-pressure metamorphic rocks is related to presence of active subduction of the Neotethys Oceanic lithosphere beneath Eurasia in the Makran.
The 1911 Chon-Kemin (Kebin) earthquake culminated c. 30 years of remarkable earthquakes in the northern Tien Shan (Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan). Building on prior mapping of the event, we traced its rupture in the field and measured more than 50 offset landforms. Cumulative fault rupture length is >155-195 km along 13 fault patches comprising six sections. The patches are separated by changes of dip magnitude or dip direction, or by 4-10 km-wide stepovers. One <40 km section overlaps and is parallel to the main north-dipping rupture but is 7 km north and dips opposite (south). Both ends of the rupture are along mountain front thrust faults demonstrating late Quaternary activity. We computed the moment from each fault patch using the surface fault traces, dip inferred from the traces, 20 km seismogenic thickness, rigidity of 3.3 x 10(10) N m(-2) and dip slip converted from our observations of the largely reverse sense of motion vertical offsets. The discontinuous patches with c. 3-4 m average slip and peak slip of <14 m yield a seismic moment of 4.6 x 10(20) Nm (M-w 7.78) to 7.4 x 10(20) Nm (M-w 7.91). The majority of moment was released along the inner eastern rupture segments. This geological moment is lower by a factor of 1.5 from that determined from teleseismic data.
This study examines the characteristics of drought in the Volta River Basin (VRB), investigates the influence of drought on the streamflow, and projects the impacts of future climate change on the drought. A combination of observation data and regional climate simulations of past and future climates (1970-2013, 2046-2065, and 2081-2100) were analyzed for the study. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration (SPEI) were used to characterize drought while the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) were used to quantify runoff. Results of the study show that the historical pattern of drought is generally consistent with previous studies over the Basin and most part of West Africa. RCA ensemble medians (RMED) give realistic simulations of drought characteristics and area extent over the Basin and the sub-catchments in the past climate. Generally, an increase in drought intensity and spatial extent are projected over VRB for SPEI and SPI, but the magnitude of increase is higher with SPEI than with SPI. Drought frequency (events per decade) may be magnified by a factor of 1.2, (2046-2065) to 1.6 (2081-2100) compared to the present day episodes in the basin. The coupling between streamflow and drought episodes was very strong (P < 0.05) for the 1-16-year band before the 1970 but showed strong correlation all through the time series period for the 4-8 -years band. Runoff was highly sensitive to precipitation in the VRB and a 2-3 month time lag was found between drought indices and streamflow in the Volta River Basin. Results of this study may guide policymakers in planning how to minimize the negative impacts of future climate change that could have consequences on agriculture, water resources and energy supply.
The North Tabriz Fault is seismologically an active fault with current right lateral strike-slip movements. Restricted mafic to intermediate Fate Cretaceous igneous rocks are exposed along the North Tabriz Fault. Whole rock and clinopyroxene phenocrysts geochemistry were studied in order to characterize the petrogenesis of these mafic rocks and their possible relation to an oceanic crust. The results indicate a tholeiitic parental magma that formed in an evolved mid-ocean ridge tectonic setting similar to the Iceland mid-Atlantic ridge basalts. The ocean floor basalt characteristics give evidence of an oceanic crust along the North Tabriz Fault. Therefore, the trend of the North Tabriz Fault more likely marks a suture zone related to the closure of a branch of the Neo-Tethys Ocean in the NW Iran. This fault, in addition to the Caucasus and Zagros suture zones, compensates an important part of the convergence between the Arabian and Eurasian plates resulting from the Red Sea divergence. It is concluded that the North Tabriz Fault appears to be possible southeastern continuation of the North Anatolian suture zone.
Through the zmir-Ankara-Erzincan and the Vardar oceans suture zones, convergence between the Eurasian and African plates played a key role in controlling Palaeogene magmatism in north-western Anatolia, northern Aegean, and eastern Balkans. LA-ICP-MS dating of U and Pb isotopes on zircon separates from the tuffs of the Harmankaya Volcanic Rocks, which are inter-fingered with the lower-middle Eocene deposits of the Gazikoy Formation to the north of the Ganos Fault and the Karaaac Formation in the Gelibolu Peninsula, yielded a late Ypresian (51Ma) age. The chemical characteristics suggest that the lavas and tuffs of the Harmankaya Volcanic Rocks are products of syn- or post-collision magmas. These volcanic rocks show also close affinities to the subduction-related magmas. In addition to the already known andesitic volcanic rocks, our field observations in Gokceada Island indicate also the existence of granitic and rhyolitic rocks (Marmaros Magmatic Assemblage). Our U-Pb zircon age data has shown that the newly discovered Marmaros granitic plutons intruded during late Oligocene (26Ma) into the deposits of the Karaaac Formation in Gokceada Island. LA-ICP-MS dating of U and Pb isotopes on zircon separates from the Marmaros rhyolitic rocks yielded a late Oligocene (26Ma) crystallization age. Geochemical characteristics indicate that the more-evolved Oligocene granitic and rhyolitic rock of the Marmaros Magmatic Assemblage possibly assimilated a greater amount of crustal material than the lower Eocene Harmankaya Volcanic Rocks. Geochemical features and age relationships suggest increasing amounts of crustal contamination and a decreasing subduction signature during the evolution of magmas in NW Turkey from the early Eocene to the Oligocene. The magmatic activity developed following the northward subduction of the zmir-Ankara-Erzincan oceanic lithosphere and the earliest Palaeocene final continental collision between the Sakarya and Anatolide-Tauride zones.
A comprehensive hydrometeorological dataset is presented spanning the period 1 January 201131 December 2014 to improve the understanding of the hydrological processes leading to flash floods and the relation between rainfall, runoff, erosion and sediment transport in a mesoscale catchment (Auzon, 116 km(2)) of the Mediterranean region. Badlands are present in the Auzon catchment and well connected to high-gradient channels of bedrock rivers which promotes the transfer of suspended solids downstream. The number of observed variables, the various sensors involved (both in situ and remote) and the space-time resolution (similar to km(2), similar to min) of this comprehensive dataset make it a unique contribution to research communities focused on hydrometeorology, surface hydrology and erosion. Given that rainfall is highly variable in space and time in this region, the observation system enables assessment of the hydrological response to rainfall fields. Indeed, (i) rainfall data are provided by rain gauges (both a research network of 21 rain gauges with a 5 min time step and an operational network of 10 rain gauges with a 5 min or 1 h time step), S-band Doppler dual-polarization radars (1 km(2), 5 min resolution), disdrometers (16 sensors working at 30 s or 1 min time step) and Micro Rain Radars (5 sensors, 100m height resolution). Additionally, during the special observation period (SOP-1) of the HyMeX (Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment) project, two X-band radars provided precipitation measurements at very fine spatial and temporal scales (1 ha, 5 min). (ii) Other meteorological data are taken from the operational surface weather observation stations of Meteo-France (including 2m air temperature, atmospheric pressure, 2 m relative humidity, 10m wind speed and direction, global radiation) at the hourly time resolution (six stations in the region of interest). (iii) The monitoring of surface hydrology and suspended sediment is multi-scale and based on nested catchments. Three hydrometric stations estimate water discharge at a 2-10 min time resolution. Two of these stations also measure additional physico-chemical variables (turbidity, temperature, conductivity) and water samples are collected automatically during floods, allowing further geochemical characterization of water and suspended solids. Two experimental plots monitor overland flow and erosion at 1 min time resolution on a hillslope with vineyard. A network of 11 sensors installed in the intermittent hydrographic network continuously measures water level and water temperature in headwater subcatchments (from 0.17 to 116 km(2)) at a time resolution of 2-5 min. A network of soil moisture sensors enables the continuous measurement of soil volumetric water content at 20 min time resolution at 9 sites. Additionally, concomitant observations (soil moisture measurements and stream gauging) were performed during floods between 2012 and 2014. Finally, this dataset is considered appropriate for understanding the rainfall variability in time and space at fine scales, improving areal rainfall estimations and progressing in distributed hydrological and erosion modelling.
Successful delivery of the United Nations sustainable development goals and implementation of the Paris Agreement requires technologies that utilize a wide range of minerals in vast quantities. Metal recycling and technological change will contribute to sustaining supply, but mining must continue and grow for the foreseeable future to ensure that such minerals remain available to industry. New links are needed between existing institutional frameworks to oversee responsible sourcing of minerals, trajectories for mineral exploration, environmental practices, and consumer awareness of the effects of consumption. Here we present, through analysis of a comprehensive set of data and demand forecasts, an interdisciplinary perspective on how best to ensure ecologically viable continuity of global mineral supply over the coming decades.
The crystallization kinetics of silicate liquids were studied experimentally in the system haplogranite-B-Li-H2O, at variable degrees of undercooling and variable water concentration. We investigated the kinetics of nucleation and crystallization of unseeded synthetic hydrous haplogranite with 1 wt % Li2O + 2 center dot 3 wt % B2O3 added (composition C1) and 2 wt % Li2O + 4 center dot 6 wt % B2O3 added (composition C2). Compositions C1 and C2 are simplified representative bulk compositions of Li-rich pegmatites and their highly differentiated cores, respectively. Starting water contents varied between 3 and 9 wt %. With few exceptions, the system remained water-undersaturated. About 86 isothermal runs of 1-60 days duration, grouped in 25 time series of constant temperature and initial H2O content, were carried out at temperatures from 400 to 700A degrees C at 300 MPa, corresponding to variable degrees of undercooling between the liquidus and glass transition. Viscosity measurements indicate that the glass transition for both compositions is below 400A degrees C for 3 wt % water and below 300A degrees C for 6 center dot 5 wt % water. The melts remained virtually crystal free at 400A degrees C, about 100A degrees C and 120A degrees C above the glass transition for compositions C1 and C2, respectively, in experiments up to 30 days long. This result is consistent with the existence of low-temperature, undercooled melts in the crust. At lower values of undercooling the runs crystallized partially, up to about 70% volume fraction. Undercooling and the amount of water are the main factors controlling nucleation and growth rates, and therefore textures. Minerals nucleate and grow sequentially according to mineral-specific nucleation delays. The mineral assemblage started with Li-Al stuffed quartz (in C1) and virgilite (in C2), solid-solutions between quartz and gamma-spodumene. The quartz-like phases were typically followed by spherulitic alkali feldspar-quartz intergrowths, euhedral petalite, and fine-grained muscovite. Nearly pure quartz formed as rims and replacement of metastable virgilite and stuffed quartz, in particular at the boron- and water-rich crystallization front of large feldspar or petalite. With the exception of muscovite, all minerals nucleated heterogeneously, on the capsule wall or on pre-existing minerals, and grew inwards, towards the capsule center. Experimental textures resembled the textures of zoned pegmatites, including skeletal, graphic, unidirectional, radiating, spherulitic, massive, and replacement textures. In some cases, when fluid saturation was reached, miarolitic cavities developed containing euhedral crystals. Although unidirectional growth rates appeared to slow down in time, volumetric rates for stable graphic alkali-feldspar quartz intergrowths and petalite remained constant for up to 60 days and similar to 70% crystallization. Metastable stuffed quartz and virgilite diminished in their growth rates in runs of 30 days or longer, were resorbed in the melt, and were partially replaced by second-generation quartz. Unobstructed, self-sustained crystal growth in conditions of very low nucleation density appears to be the dominant mechanism to form giant pegmatitic crystals, although experimental growth rates are much slower than predicted in nature based on conductive-cooling models.
The effects of coupling between different layers of the atmosphere during Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) events have been studied quite extensively in the past fewyears, and in this context large lunitidal enhancements in the equatorial ionosphere have also been widely discussed. In this study we report about the longitudinal variabilities in lunitidal enhancement in the equatorial electrojet (EEJ) during SSWs through ground and space observations in the Peruvian and Indian sectors. We observe that the amplification of lunitidal oscillations in EEJ is significantly larger over the Peruvian sector in comparison to the Indian sector. We further compare the lunitidal oscillations in both the sectors during the 2005-2006 and 2008-2009 major SSW events and during a non-SSW winter of 2006-2007. It is found that the lunitidal amplitude in EEJ over the Peruvian sector showed similar enhancements during both the major SSWs, but the enhancements were notably different in the Indian sector. Independent from SSW events, we have also performed a climatological analysis of the lunar modulation of the EEJ during December solstice over both the sectors by using 10years of CHAMP magnetic measurements and found larger lunitidal amplitudes over the Peruvian sector confirming the results from ground magnetometer observations. We have also analyzed the semidiurnal lunar tidal amplitude in neutral temperature measurements from Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) at 110km and found lesser longitudinal variability than the lunitidal amplitude in EEJ. Our results suggest that the longitudinal variabilities in lunitidal modulation of the EEJ during SSWs could be related to electrodynamics in the E region dynamo.
The polar and subtropical jet streams are strong upper-level winds with a crucial influence on weather throughout the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. In particular, the polar jet is located between cold arctic air to the north and warmer subtropical air to the south. Strongly meandering states therefore often lead to extreme surface weather. The parameter values of the detection scheme are optimized using simulated annealing and a skill function that accounts for the zonal-mean jet stream position (Rikus, 2015). After the successful optimization process, we apply our scheme to reanalysis data covering 1979-2015 and calculate seasonal-mean probabilistic maps and trends in wind strength and position of jet streams. We present longitudinally defined probability distributions of the positions for both jets for all on the Northern Hemisphere seasons. This shows that winter is characterized by two well-separated jets over Europe and Asia (ca. 20 degrees W to 140 degrees E). In contrast, summer normally has a single merged jet over the western hemisphere but can have both merged and separated jet states in the eastern hemisphere.
This study explores the suitability of a single hillslope as a parsimonious representation of a catchment in a physically based model. We test this hypothesis by picturing two distinctly different catchments in perceptual models and translating these pictures into parametric setups of 2-D physically based hillslope models. The model parametrizations are based on a comprehensive field data set, expert knowledge and process-based reasoning. Evaluation against streamflow data highlights that both models predicted the annual pattern of streamflow generation as well as the hydrographs acceptably. However, a look beyond performance measures revealed deficiencies in streamflow simulations during the summer season and during individual rainfall-runoff events as well as a mismatch between observed and simulated soil water dynamics. Some of these shortcomings can be related to our perception of the systems and to the chosen hydrological model, while others point to limitations of the representative hillslope concept itself. Nevertheless, our results confirm that representative hillslope models are a suitable tool to assess the importance of different data sources as well as to challenge our perception of the dominant hydrological processes we want to represent therein. Consequently, these models are a promising step forward in the search for the optimal representation of catchments in physically based models.
A hydrochemical approach to quantify the role of return flow in a surface flow-dominated catchment
(2017)
Stormflow generation in headwater catchments dominated by subsurface flow has been studied extensively, yet catchments dominated by surface flow have received less attention. We addressed this by testing whether stormflow chemistry is controlled by either (a) the event-water signature of overland flow, or (b) the pre-event water signature of return flow. We used a high-resolution hydrochemical data set of stormflow and end-members of multiple storms in an end-member mixing analysis to determine the number of end-members needed to explain stormflow, characterize and identify potential end-members, calculate their contributions to stormflow, and develop a conceptual model of stormflow. The arrangement and relative positioning of end-members in stormflow mixing space suggest that saturation excess overland flow (26-48%) and return flow from two different subsurface storage pools (17-53%) are both similarly important for stormflow. These results suggest that pipes and fractures are important flow paths to rapidly release stored water and highlight the value of within-event resolution hydrochemical data to assess the full range and dynamics of flow paths.
Postseismic surface deformation associated with great subduction earthquakes is controlled by asthenosphere rheology, frictional properties of the fault, and structural complexity. Here by modeling GPS displacements in the 6 years following the 2010 M-w 8.8 Maule earthquake in Chile, we investigate the impact of heterogeneous viscosity distribution in the South American subcontinental asthenosphere on the 3-D postseismic deformation pattern. The observed postseismic deformation is characterized by flexure of the South America plate with peak uplift in the Andean mountain range and subsidence in the hinterland. We find that, at the time scale of observation, over 2 orders of magnitude gradual increase in asthenosphere viscosity from the arc area toward the cratonic hinterland is needed to jointly explain horizontal and vertical displacements. Our findings present an efficient method to estimate spatial variations of viscosity, which clearly improves the fitting to the vertical signal of deformation. Lateral changes in asthenosphere viscosity can be correlated with the thermomechanical transition from weak subvolcanic arc mantle to strong subcratonic mantle, thus suggesting a stationary heterogeneous viscosity structure. However, we cannot rule out a transient viscosity structure (e.g., power law rheology) with the short time span of observation.
Landscape evolution models (LEMs) allow the study of earth surface responses to changing climatic and tectonic forcings. While much effort has been devoted to the development of LEMs that simulate a wide range of processes, the numerical accuracy of these models has received less attention. Most LEMs use first-order accurate numerical methods that suffer from substantial numerical diffusion. Numerical diffusion particularly affects the solution of the advection equation and thus the simulation of retreating landforms such as cliffs and river knickpoints. This has potential consequences for the integrated response of the simulated landscape. Here we test a higher-order flux-limiting finite volume method that is total variation diminishing (TVD-FVM) to solve the partial differential equations of river incision and tectonic displacement. We show that using the TVD-FVM to simulate river incision significantly influences the evolution of simulated landscapes and the spatial and temporal variability of catchment-wide erosion rates. Furthermore, a two-dimensional TVD-FVM accurately simulates the evolution of landscapes affected by lateral tectonic displacement, a process whose simulation was hitherto largely limited to LEMs with flexible spatial discretization. We implement the scheme in TTLEM (TopoToolbox Landscape Evolution Model), a spatially explicit, raster-based LEM for the study of fluvially eroding landscapes in TopoToolbox 2.
BACKGROUND: We evaluated the potential of cholecalciferol as an enhancer of the first-generation anticoagulant coumatetralyl in the Westphalia anticoagulant-resistant strain of the Norway rat (Rattus norvegicus Berkenhout), characterised by the Tyr139Cys polymorphism on the VKOR enzyme. Because today only the most potent, but also most persistent anticoagulant rodenticides of the second generation remain available to control this strain, new rodenticide solutions are required. RESULTS: Feeding trials in the laboratory confirmed a significant level of efficacy, which was corroborated by field trials in the Munsterland resistance area. After frequency and level of resistance were assessed by blood clotting response tests, field trials were conducted with bait containing coumatetralyl at 375 mg kg(-1) and cholecalciferol at 50 mg kg(-1) or 100 mg kg(-1). Control success was 94% when a large rat infestation comprising 42% resistant animals was treated. Another field trial applying the combination to a rat population that had survived a preceding treatment with bromadiolone resulted in a 99.5% control success according to the first census day, but with some increase in rat activity during subsequent census days. CONCLUSION: The combination of coumatetralyl and cholecalciferol is a promising alternative approach to the most potent second-generation anticoagulants in resistance management, particularly in respect of environmental risks, such as secondary poisoning. (C) 2016 Society of Chemical Industry
Understanding evolution and ecology of endemic plants is of great importance for conservation of those rare and endangered species. Pairwise comparisons of plant functional traits could be an adequate method to get insights in evolutionary and ecological processes. We examined whether morphological traits representing competitive ability and habitat specificity differ between endemics and common plants. Therefore, we performed pairwise comparison analyses of 9 plant functional traits in 36 congeneric pairs of endemics and their common congeners on the East Mediterranean island of Cyprus, i.e., the first such study conducted on a Mediterranean island. We found that endemic species prefer higher elevations and more extreme habitats. Endemics were smaller and they had smaller flowers than their common congeners. Common species had higher chromosome numbers than endemic ones. Endemic and common species showed no significant differences in canopy height, inflorescence height, leaf length and width, and flowering period. Our study showed that the situation on a large oceanic island does not differ from results in mainland research areas.
Sensitivity and identifiability analyses are common diagnostic tools to address over-parametrization in complex environmental models, but a combined application of the two analyses is rarely conducted. In this study, we performed a temporal global sensitivity analysis using the variance-based method of Sobol’ and a temporal identifiability analysis of model parameters using the dynamic identifiability method (DYNIA). We discuss the relationship between the two analyses with a focus on parameter identification and output uncertainty reduction. The hydrological model HydroGeoSphere was used to simulate daily evapotranspiration, water content, and seepage at the lysimeter scale. We found that identifiability of a parameter does not necessarily reduce output uncertainty. It was also found that the information from the main and total effects (main Sobol' sensitivity indices) is required to allow uncertainty reduction in the model output. Overall, the study highlights the role of combined temporal diagnostic tools for improving our understanding of model behavior.
Atmospheric transport is an understudied mechanism for leaf wax hydrogen isotope applications that contributes to mobilizing and depositing these compounds on the surface of the Earth. While previous efforts have identified the importance of atmospheric leaf wax deposition in remote marine locations, the processes are not well constrained on land in temperate latitudes where lakes are common and sedimentary leaf wax hydrogen isotope values are an attractive tool for understanding past precipitation changes. This work presents results from a field study that was conducted in 2010 and 2011 at Hainich National Park, Germany in order to evaluate the quantity and sources of leaf waxes in the atmosphere. Aerosols were sampled at approximately weekly intervals inside the forest canopy, and n-alkane distributions and hydrogen isotope values were compared with those from major tree species surrounding the sampling site. Despite sampling in what was expected to be a major production center, the distribution and hydrogen isotope values of atmospheric n-alkanes bore little resemblance to those of the local vegetation. Comparison with local meteorological data and to 10-day and 36-h back air mass trajectories indicated shifting effects of winds and temperature, and that mesoscale transport processes were more important than longrange mechanisms. Back trajectories also highlighted source effects, with easterly winds coinciding with relatively lower leaf wax hydrogen isotope values from more continental regions. These results suggest that leaf wax aerosols average over spatial scales that exceed typical surface catchment areas for small lake systems, even in forested areas, yet that the area over which these compounds are derived is still relatively regional. Depositional fluxes were also estimated in order to assess the potential importance of atmospheric transport to sedimentary archives. Although difficult to constrain, these estimates suggest that atmospheric deposition may be non-negligible for lake systems in cases where inputs from rivers or surface runoff are limited. Together, these observations provide new insights on how leaf waxes from different sources are integrated during aeolian transport and the spatial scales over which these processes occur.
Along a subduction zone, great megathrust earthquakes recur either after long seismic gaps lasting several decades to centuries or over much shorter periods lasting hours to a few years when cascading successions of earthquakes rupture nearby segments of the fault. We analyze a decade of continuous Global Positioning System observations along the South American continent to estimate changes in deformation rates between the 2010 Maule (M8.8) and 2015 Illapel (M8.3) Chilean earthquakes. We find that surface velocities increased after the 2010 earthquake, in response to continental-scale viscoelastic mantle relaxation and to regional-scale increased degree of interplate locking. We propose that increased locking occurs transiently during a super-interseismic phase in segments adjacent to a megathrust rupture, responding to bending of both plates caused by coseismic slip and subsequent afterslip. Enhanced strain rates during a super-interseismic phase may therefore bring a megathrust segment closer to failure and possibly triggered the 2015 event.
We analyse current and possible future reforms of the Indian food policies for the most important staple grains, wheat and rice, within a two-commodity dynamic partial equilibrium model with stochastic shocks. The model is empirically grounded and reproduces past values well. It uses a new reduced-form approach to capture private storage dynamics. We evaluate the implementation of the National Food Security Act (NFSA) under several policy measures with the current regime as well as two scenarios with a regime change - implementation of cash transfers and deficiency payments. Implications for market fundamentals and fiscal costs are simulated in the medium term - until 2020/21. The NFSA puts a high pressure on fiscal costs and public stocks. Relying on imports with low support prices results in low fiscal costs and stable, but higher domestic and international prices, and a high risk of zero stocks. A policy strategy to manipulate procurement prices in order to maintain public stocks close to the norms leads to slightly higher fiscal costs with lower, but more volatile prices. The highest domestic price volatility occurs under a strategy which uses export bans in order to maintain sufficient public stocks. A cash-based regime can bring considerable savings and curb fiscal costs, particularly if targeted to the poor, and would leave sufficient stocks due to higher private stocks.
This work focuses on the incision process over the Tuostai anticline, a fold of the proximal structure Belt I in the northern Chinese Tian Shan foreland, where the Sikeshu River has incised deeply into the alluvial gravels and the fold's underlying bedrock strata. Field investigation and geomorphic mapping define five terraces of the Sikeshu River (designated as T1 to T5 from oldest to youngest) preserved within the Tuostai anticline. 10Be surface exposure dating and optically stimulated luminescence dating constrain stabilization of the highest three terrace surfaces at about 80 ka (T1), 16 ka (T2), and 15 ka (T3), respectively. Around 16 ka, the calculated river incision rates significantly increase from <2 mm/yr to >6 mm/yr. Undeformed longitudinal profiles of terraces T2, T3 and T4 over the Tuostai anticline suggest that this structure may have been tectonically inactive since stabilization of these three terraces. We thus think that the observed rapid river incision over the Tuostai anticline has not been largely forced by tectonic uplift. Instead, the progressively warmer and wetter palaeoclimatic condition within the Tian Shan range and its surrounding area during the period of ∼20–10 ka may have enhanced river incision across the Tuostai anticline. A reduced sediment/water ratio might have lowered the gradient of the Sikeshu River.
The purpose of our study is to reconstruct the climatic and environmental changes that took place over the Holocene in Northwest Russia. The results of the palaeobiological analysis of cladoceran community of Lake Medvedevskoe (Karelian Isthmus, located between the Gulf of Finland of the Baltic Sea and Lake Ladoga, Northwest Russia) have been discussed. In the sediments of Lake Medvedevskoe, we have identified 38 cladoceran taxa that belong to 7 families: Bosminidae, Holopedidae, Chydoridae, Daphnidae, Polyphemidae, Macrotricidae, and Sididae. It has been revealed that Bosmina (Eubosmina) longispina and Alonella nana are the most common for subfossil Cladocera community of the lake. Palearctic and Holarctic species are dominant. Both pelagic and littoral taxa are well represented in the lake. The down-core changes in cladoceran community allowed to identify five statistically significant zones. It has been discovered that the taxonomic richness of biological communities is low at the bottom of the core with the dominance of typical northern species and increases towards the sediment surface alongside with the rise of organic content in sediments. Based on the shifts in the taxonomic composition of cladoceran community, we have concluded upon the trophic status of the lake and climate changes. The obtained data have been compared with the results of the chironomid analysis that was performed earlier.
Transitions between forest and savannah vegetation types in fossil pollen records are often poorly understood due to over-production by taxa such as Poaceae and a lack of modern pollen-vegetation studies. Here, modern pollen assemblages from within a forest-savannah transition in West Africa are presented and compared, their characteristic taxa discussed, and implications for the fossil record considered. Fifteen artificial pollen traps were deployed for 1 year, to collect pollen rain from three vegetation plots within the forest-savannah transition in Ghana. High percentages of Poaceae and Melastomataceae/Combretaceae were recorded in all three plots. Erythrophleum suaveolens characterised the forest plot, Manilkara obovata the transition plot and Terminalia the savannah plot. The results indicate that Poaceae pollen influx rates provide the best representation of the forest-savannah gradient, and that a Poaceae abundance of >40% should be considered as indicative of savannah-type vegetation in the fossil record.
Predicting macroscopic elastic rock properties requires detailed information on microstructure
(2017)
Predicting variations in macroscopic mechanical rock behaviour due to microstructural changes, driven by mineral precipitation and dissolution is necessary to couple chemo-mechanical processes in geological subsurface simulations. We apply 3D numerical homogenization models to estimate Young’s moduli for five synthetic microstructures, and successfully validate our results for comparable geometries with the analytical Mori-Tanaka approach. Further, we demonstrate that considering specific rock microstructures is of paramount importance, since calculated elastic properties may deviate by up to 230 % for the same mineral composition. Moreover, agreement between simulated and experimentally determined Young’s moduli is significantly improved, when detailed spatial information are employed.
Water management tools are necessary to guarantee the preservation of natural resources while ensuring optimum utilization. Linear regression models are a simple and quick solution for creating prognostic capabilities. Multivariate models show higher precision than univariate models. In the case of Waiwera, implementation of individual production rates is more accurate than applying just the total production rate. A maximum of approximately 1,075 m3/day can be pumped to ensure a water level of at least 0.5 m a.s.l. in the monitoring well. The model should be renewed annually to implement new data and current water level trends to keep the quality.
Integration and development of the energy supply in China and worldwide is a challenge for the years to come. The innovative idea presented here is based on an extension of the “power-to-gas-to-power” technology by establishing a closed carbon cycle. It is an implementation of a low-carbon energy system based on carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) to store and reuse wind and solar energy. The Chenjiacun storage project in China compares well with the German case study for the towns Potsdam and Brandenburg/Havel in the Federal State of Brandenburg based on the Ketzin pilot site for CCS.
We introduce the Annual Magnetospheric Currents index as long-term proxy for the geomagnetic signal of magnetospheric currents on Earth valid within the time span 1900–2010. Similar to the widely used disturbance storm time and ‘Ring Current’ indices, it is based on geomagnetic observatory data, but provides a realistic absolute level and uncertainty estimates. Crucial aspects to this end are the revision of observatory crustal biases as well as the implementation of a Bayesian inversion accounting for uncertainties in the main field estimate, both required for the index derivation. The observatory choice is based on a minimization of index variance during a reference period spanning 1960–2010. The new index is capable of correcting observatory time series from large-scale external signals in a user-friendly manner. At present the index is only available as annual mean values. An extension to hourly values for the same time span is in progress.
This study combines spaceborne multitemporal and hyperspectral data to analyze the spatial distribution of surface evaporite minerals and changes in a semi-arid depositional environment associated with episodic flooding events, the Omongwa salt pan (Kalahari, Namibia). The dynamic of the surface crust is evaluated by a change-detection approach using the Iterative-reweighted Multivariate Alteration Detection (IR-MAD) based on the Landsat archive imagery from 1984 to 2015. The results show that the salt pan is a highly dynamic and heterogeneous landform. A change gradient is observed from very stable pan border to a highly dynamic central pan. On the basis of hyperspectral EO-1 Hyperion images, the current distribution of surface evaporite minerals is characterized using Spectral Mixture Analysis (SMA). Assessment of field and image endmembers revealed that the pan surface can be categorized into three major crust types based on diagnostic absorption features and mineralogical ground truth data. The mineralogical crust types are related to different zones of surface change as well as pan morphology that influences brine flow during the pan inundation and desiccation cycles. These combined information are used to spatially map depositional environments where the more dynamic halite crust concentrates in lower areas although stable gypsum and calcite/sepiolite crusts appear in higher elevated areas.
Borehole instabilities are frequently encountered when drilling through finely laminated, organic rich shales (Økland and Cook, 1998; Ottesen, 2010; etc.); such instabilities should be avoided to assure a successful exploitation and safe production of the contained unconventional hydrocarbons. Borehole instabilities, such as borehole breakouts or drilling induced tensile fractures, may lead to poor cementing of the borehole annulus, difficulties with recording and interpretation of geophysical logs, low directional control and in the worst case the loss of the well. If these problems are not recognized and expertly remedied, pollution of the groundwater or the emission of gases into the atmosphere can occur since the migration paths of the hydrocarbons in the subsurface are not yet fully understood (e.g., Davies et al., 2014; Zoback et al., 2010). In addition, it is often mentioned that the drilling problems encountered and the resulting downtimes of the wellbore system in finely laminated shales significantly increase drilling costs (Fjaer et al., 2008; Aadnoy and Ong, 2003).
In order to understand and reduce the borehole instabilities during drilling in unconventional shales, we investigate stress-induced irregular extensions of the borehole diameter, which are also referred to as borehole breakouts. For this purpose, experiments with different borehole diameters, bedding plane angles and stress boundary conditions were performed on finely laminated Posidonia shales. The Lower Jurassic Posidonia shale is one of the most productive source rocks for conventional reservoirs in Europe and has the greatest potential for unconventional oil and gas in Europe (Littke et al., 2011).
In this work, Posidonia shale specimens from the North (PN) and South (PS) German basins were selected and characterized petrophysically and mechanically. The composition of the two shales is dominated by calcite (47-56%) followed by clays (23-28%) and quartz (16-17%). The remaining components are mainly pyrite and organic matter. The porosity of the shales varies considerably and is up to 10% for PS and 1% for PN, which is due to a larger deposition depth of PN. Both shales show marked elasticity and strength anisotropy, which can be attributed to a macroscopic distribution and orientation of soft and hard minerals. Under load the hard minerals form a load-bearing, supporting structure, while the soft minerals compensate the deformation. Therefore, if loaded parallel to the bedding, the Posidonia shale is more brittle than loaded normal to the bedding. The resulting elastic anisotropy, which can be defined by the ratio of the modulus of elasticity parallel and normal to the bedding, is about 50%, while the strength anisotropy (i.e., the ratio of uniaxial compressive strength normal and parallel to the bedding) is up to 66%. Based on the petrophysical characterization of the two rocks, a transverse isotropy (TVI) was derived. In general, PS is softer and weaker than PN, which is due to the stronger compaction of the material due to the higher burial depth.
Conventional triaxial borehole breakout experiments on specimens with different borehole diameters showed that, when the diameter of the borehole is increased, the stress required to initiate borehole breakout decreases to a constant value. This value can be expressed as the ratio of the tangential stress and the uniaxial compressive strength of the rock. The ratio increases exponentially with decreasing borehole diameter from about 2.5 for a 10 mm diameter hole to ~ 7 for a 1 mm borehole (increase of initiation stress by 280%) and can be described by a fracture mechanic based criterion. The reduction in borehole diameter is therefore a considerable aspect in reducing the risk of breakouts. New drilling techniques with significantly reduced borehole diameters, such as "fish-bone" holes, are already underway and are currently being tested (e.g., Xing et al., 2012).
The observed strength anisotropy and the TVI material behavior are also reflected in the observed breakout processes at the borehole wall. Drill holes normal to the bedding develop breakouts in a plane of isotropy and are not affected by the strength or elasticity anisotropy. The observed breakouts are point-symmetric and form compressive shear failure planes, which can be predicted by a Mohr-Coulomb failure approach. If the shear failure planes intersect, conjugate breakouts can be described as "dog-eared” breakouts.
While the initiation of breakouts for wells oriented normal to the stratification has been triggered by random local defects, reduced strengths parallel to bedding planes are the starting point for breakouts for wells parallel to the bedding. In the case of a deflected borehole trajectory, therefore, the observed failure type changes from shear-induced failure surfaces to buckling failure of individual layer packages. In addition, the breakout depths and widths increased, resulting in a stress-induced enlargement of the borehole cross-section and an increased output of rock material into the borehole. With the transition from shear to buckling failure and changing bedding plane angle with respect to the borehole axis, the stress required for inducing wellbore breakouts drops by 65%.
These observations under conventional triaxial stress boundary conditions could also be confirmed under true triaxial stress conditions. Here breakouts grew into the rock as a result of buckling failure, too. In this process, the broken layer packs rotate into the pressure-free drill hole and detach themselves from the surrounding rock by tensile cracking. The final breakout shape in Posidonia shale can be described as trapezoidal when the bedding planes are parallel to the greatest horizontal stress and to the borehole axis. In the event that the largest horizontal stress is normal to the stratification, breakouts were formed entirely by shear fractures between the stratification and required higher stresses to initiate similar to breakouts in conventional triaxial experiments with boreholes oriented normal to the bedding.
In the content of this work, a fracture mechanics-based failure criterion for conventional triaxial loading conditions in isotropic rocks (Dresen et al., 2010) has been successfully extended to true triaxial loading conditions in the transverse isotropic rock to predict the initiation of borehole breakouts. The criterion was successfully verified on the experiments carried out.
The extended failure criterion and the conclusions from the laboratory and numerical work may help to reduce the risk of borehole breakouts in unconventional shales.
Avalanche activity is an important factor when estimating the regional avalanche danger. Moreover, a complete and detailed picture of avalanche activity is needed to understand the processes that lead to natural avalanche release. Currently, information on avalanche activity is mainly obtained through visual observations. However, this involves large uncertainties in the number and release times, influencing the subsequent analysis. Therefore, alternative methods for the remote detection of snow avalanches in particular in non-observed areas are highly desirable. In this study, we use the excited ground vibration to identify avalanches automatically. The specific seismic signature of avalanches facilitates the objective detection by a recently developed classification procedure. A probabilistic description of the signals, called hidden Markov models, allows the robust identification of corresponding signals in the continuous data stream. The procedure is based upon learning a general background model from continuous seismic data. Then, a single reference waveform is used to update an event-specific classifier. Thus, a minimum amount of training data is required by constructing such a classifier on the fly. In this study, we processed five days of continuous data recorded in the Swiss Alps during the avalanche winter 1999. With the restriction of testing large wet-snow avalanches only, the presented approach achieved very convincing results. We successfully detect avalanches over a large volume and distance range. Ninety-two percentage of all detections (43 out of 47) could be confirmed as avalanche events; only four false alarms are reported. We see a clear dependence of recognition capability on run-out distance and source-receiver distance of the observed events: Avalanches are detectable up to a source-receiver distance of eight times the avalanche length. Implications for analyzing a more comprehensive data set (smaller events and different flow regimes) are discussed in detail.
The Yukon Coast in Canada is an ice-rich permafrost coast and highly sensitive to changing environmental conditions. Retrogressive thaw slumps are a common thermoerosion feature along this coast, and develop through the thawing of exposed ice-rich permafrost on slopes and removal of accumulating debris. They contribute large amounts of sediment, including organic carbon and nitrogen, to the nearshore zone.
The objective of this study was to 1) identify the climatic and geomorphological drivers of sediment-meltwater release, 2) quantify the amount of released meltwater, sediment, organic carbon and nitrogen, and 3) project the evolution of sediment-meltwater release of retrogressive thaw slumps in a changing future climate.
The analysis is based on data collected over 18 days in July 2013 and 18 days in August 2012. A cut-throat flume was set up in the main sediment-meltwater channel of the largest retrogressive thaw slump on Herschel Island. In addition, two weather stations, one on top of the undisturbed tundra and one on the slump floor, measured incoming solar radiation, air temperature, wind speed and precipitation. The discharge volume eroding from the ice-rich permafrost and retreating snowbanks was measured and compared to the meteorological data collected in real time with a resolution of one minute.
The results show that the release of sediment-meltwater from thawing of the ice-rich permafrost headwall is strongly related to snowmelt, incoming solar radiation and air temperature. Snowmelt led to seasonal differences, especially due to the additional contribution of water to the eroding sediment-meltwater from headwall ablation, lead to dilution of the sediment-meltwater composition. Incoming solar radiation and air temperature were the main drivers for diurnal and inter-diurnal fluctuations. In July (2013), the retrogressive thaw slump released about 25 000 m³ of sediment-meltwater, containing 225 kg dissolved organic carbon and 2050 t of sediment, which in turn included 33 t organic carbon, and 4 t total nitrogen. In August (2012), just 15 600 m³ of sediment-meltwater was released, since there was no additional contribution from snowmelt. However, even without the additional dilution, 281 kg dissolved organic carbon was released. The sediment concentration was twice as high as in July, with sediment contents of up to 457 g l-1 and 3058 t of sediment, including 53 t organic carbon and 5 t nitrogen, being released.
In addition, the data from the 36 days of observations from Slump D were upscaled to cover the main summer season of 1 July to 31 August (62 days) and to include all 229 active retrogressive thaw slumps along the Yukon Coast. In total, all retrogressive thaw slumps along the Yukon Coast contribute a minimum of 1.4 Mio. m³ sediment-meltwater each thawing season, containing a minimum of 172 000 t sediment with 3119 t organic carbon, 327 t nitrogen and 17 t dissolved organic carbon. Therefore, in addition to the coastal erosion input to the Beaufort Sea, retrogressive thaw slumps additionally release 3 % of sediment and 8 % of organic carbon into the ocean. Finally, the future evolution of retrogressive thaw slumps under a warming scenario with summer air temperatures increasing by 2-3 °C by 2081-2100, would lead to an increase of 109-114% in release of sediment-meltwater.
It can be concluded that retrogressive thaw slumps are sensitive to climatic conditions and under projected future Arctic warming will contribute larger amounts of thawed permafrost material (including organic carbon and nitrogen) into the environment.
Rotations of the principal stress axes are observed as a result of fluid injection into reservoirs. We use a generic, fully coupled 3-D thermo-hydro-mechanical model to investigate systematically the dependence of this stress rotation on different reservoir properties and injection scenarios. We find that permeability, injection rate, and initial differential stress are the key factors, while other reservoir properties only play a negligible role. In particular, we find that thermal effects do not significantly contribute to stress rotations. For reservoir types with usual differential stress and reservoir treatment the occurrence of significant stress rotations is limited to reservoirs with a permeability of less than approximately 10(-12)m(2). Higher permeability effectively prevents stress rotations to occur. Thus, according to these general findings, the observed principal stress axes rotation can be used as a proxy of the initial differential stress provided that rock permeability and fluid injection rate are known a priori.
We investigate source processes of fluid-induced seismicity from The Geysers geothermal reservoir in California to determine their relation with hydraulic operations and improve the corresponding seismic hazard estimates. Analysis of 869 well-constrained full moment tensors (M-w 0.8-3.5) reveals significant non-double-couple components (>25%) for about 65% of the events. Volumetric deformation is governed by cumulative injection rates with larger non-double-couple components observed near the wells and during high injection periods. Source mechanisms are magnitude dependent and vary significantly between faulting regimes. Normal faulting events (M-w<2) reveal substantial volumetric components indicating dilatancy in contrast to strike-slip events that have a dominant double-couple source. Volumetric components indicating closure of cracks in the source region are mostly found for reverse faulting events with M-w>2.5. Our results imply that source processes and magnitudes of fluid-induced seismic events are strongly affected by the hydraulic operations, the reservoir stress state, and the faulting regime.
Flood risk management in Europe and worldwide is not static but constantly in a state of flux. There has been a trend towards more integrated flood risk management in many countries. However, the initial situation and the pace and direction of change is very different in the various countries. In this paper, we will present a conceptual framework that seeks to explain why countries opt for different flood risk management portfolios. The developed framework utilises insights from a range of policy science concepts in an integrated way and considers, among others, factors such as geographical characteristics, the experience with flood disasters, as well as human behavioural aspects.
An understanding of the relationship between canopy structure and the water balance is needed for predicting how forest structure changes affect rainfall partitioning and, consequently, water resources. The objective of this study was to predict rainfall interception (I) and canopy storage capacity (S) using canopy structure variables and to investigate how seasonal changes influence their relationship. The study was conducted in twelve 50 m x 50 m plots in the Zagros forest in the western Iranian state of Ilam, protected forests of Dalab region. Average cumulative I was 84.2mm, accounting for 10.2% of cumulative gross precipitation (GP) over a 1-year period. Using a regression based method, S averaged similar to 1 mm and 0.1 mm in the leafed and leafless periods, respectively. There were no relationships between tree density and I: GP or S, but I: GP and S increased with leaf area index, canopy cover fraction, basal area, tree height, and diameter at breast height in the leafed period. In addition, wood area index and canopy cover fraction were related to I: GP or S in the leafless period. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Surface wave methods gained in the past decades a primary role in many seismic projects. Specifically, they are often used to retrieve a 1D shear wave velocity model or to estimate the V-s,V-30 at a site. The complexity of the interpretation process and the variety of possible approaches to surface wave analysis make it very hard to set a fixed standard to assure quality and reliability of the results. The present guidelines provide practical information on the acquisition and analysis of surface wave data by giving some basic principles and specific suggestions related to the most common situations. They are primarily targeted to non-expert users approaching surface wave testing, but can be useful to specialists in the field as a general reference. The guidelines are based on the experience gained within the InterPACIFIC project and on the expertise of the participants in acquisition and analysis of surface wave data.
Lithospheric plates move over the low viscosity asthenosphere balancing several forces. The driving forces include basal shear stress exerted by mantle convection and plate boundary forces such as slab pull and ridge push, whereas the resisting forces include inter-plate friction, trench resistance, and cratonic root resistance. These generate plate motions, the lithospheric stress field and dynamic topography which are observed with different geophysical methods. The orientation and tectonic regime of the observed crustal/lithospheric stress field further contribute to our knowledge of different deformation processes occurring within the Earth's crust and lithosphere. Using numerical models previous studies were able to identify major forces generating stresses in the crust and lithosphere which also contribute to the formation of topography as well as driving lithospheric plates. They showed that the first-order stress pattern explaining about 80\,\% of the stress field originates from a balance of forces acting at the base of the moving lithospheric plates due to convective flow in the underlying mantle. The remaining second-order stress pattern is due to lateral density variations in the crust and lithosphere in regions of pronounced topography and high gravitational potential, such as the Himalayas and mid-ocean ridges. By linking global lithosphere dynamics to deep mantle flow this study seeks to evaluate the influence of shallow and deep density heterogenities on plate motions, lithospheric stress field and dynamic topography using the geoid as a major constraint for mantle rheology. We use the global 3D lithosphere-asthenosphere model SLIM3D with visco-elasto-plastic rheology coupled at 300 km depth to a spectral model of mantle flow. The complexity of the lithosphere-asthenosphere component allows for the simulation of power-law rheology with creep parameters accounting for both diffusion and dislocation creep within the uppermost 300 km.
First we investigate the influence of intra-plate friction and asthenospheric viscosity on present-day plate motions. Previous modelling studies have suggested that small friction coefficients (µ < 0.1, yield stress ~ 100 MPa) can lead to plate tectonics in models of mantle convection. Here we show that, in order to match present-day plate motions and net rotation, the frictional parameter must be less than 0.05. We are able to obtain a good fit with the magnitude and orientation of observed plate velocities (NUVEL-1A) in a no-net-rotation (NNR) reference frame with µ < 0.04 and minimum asthenosphere viscosity ~ 5*10e19 Pas to 10e20 Pas. Our estimates of net rotation (NR) of the lithosphere suggest that amplitudes ~ 0.1-0.2 °/Ma, similar to most observation-based estimates, can be obtained with asthenosphere viscosity cutoff values of ~ 10e19 Pas to 5*10e19 Pas and friction coefficient µ < 0.05.
The second part of the study investigates further constraints on shallow and deep mantle heterogeneities causing plate motion by predicting lithosphere stress field and topography and validating with observations. Lithosphere stresses and dynamic topography are computed using the modelling setup and rheological parameters for prescribed plate motions. We validate our results with the World Stress Map 2016 (WSM2016) and the observed residual topography. Here we tested a number of upper mantle thermal-density structures. The one used to calculate plate motions is considered the reference thermal-density structure. This model is derived from a heat flow model combined with a sea floor age model. In addition we used three different thermal-density structures derived from global S-wave velocity models to show the influence of lateral density heterogeneities in the upper 300 km on model predictions. A large portion of the total dynamic force generating stresses in the crust/lithosphere has its origin in the deep mantle, while topography is largely influenced by shallow heterogeneities. For example, there is hardly any difference between the stress orientation patterns predicted with and without consideration of the heterogeneities in the upper mantle density structure across North America, Australia, and North Africa. However, the crust is dominant in areas of high altitude for the stress orientation compared to the all deep mantle contribution.
This study explores the sensitivity of all the considered surface observables with regards to model parameters providing insights into the influence of the asthenosphere and plate boundary rheology on plate motion as we test various thermal-density structures to predict stresses and topography.
According to the classical plume hypothesis, mantle plumes are localized upwellings of hot, buoyant material in the Earth’s mantle. They have a typical mushroom shape, consisting of a large plume head, which is associated with the formation of voluminous flood basalts (a Large
Igneous Province) and a narrow plume tail, which generates a linear, age-progressive chain of volcanic edifices (a hotspot track) as the tectonic plate migrates over the relatively stationary plume. Both plume heads and tails reshape large areas of the Earth’s surface over many tens of millions of years.
However, not every plume has left an exemplary record that supports the classical hypothesis. The main objective of this thesis is therefore to study how specific hotspots have created the crustal thickness pattern attributed to their volcanic activities. Using regional geodynamic
models, the main chapters of this thesis address the challenge of deciphering the three individual (and increasingly complex) Réunion, Iceland, and Kerguelen hotspot histories, especially focussing on the interactions between the respective plume and nearby spreading ridges.
For this purpose, the mantle convection code ASPECT is used to set up three-dimensional numerical models, which consider the specific local surroundings of each plume by prescribing time-dependent boundary conditions for temperature and mantle flow. Combining reconstructed plate boundaries and plate motions, large-scale global flow velocities and an inhomogeneous lithosphere thickness distribution together with a dehydration rheology represents a novel setup for regional convection models.
The model results show the crustal thickness pattern produced by the plume, which is compared to present-day topographic structures, crustal thickness estimates and age determinations of volcanic provinces associated with hotspot activity. Altogether, the model results agree well
with surface observations. Moreover, the dynamic development of the plumes in the models provide explanations for the generation of smaller, yet characteristic volcanic features that were previously unexplained. Considering the present-day state of a model as a prediction for the
current temperature distribution in the mantle, it cannot only be compared to observations on the surface, but also to structures in the Earth’s interior as imaged by seismic tomography.
More precisely, in the case of the Réunion hotspot, the model demonstrates how the distinctive gap between the Maldives and Chagos is generated due to the combination of the ridge geometry and plume-ridge interaction. Further, the Rodrigues Ridge is formed as the surface expression
of a long-distance sublithospheric flow channel between the upwelling plume and the closest ridge segment, confirming the long-standing hypothesis of Morgan (1978) for the first time in a dynamic context. The Réunion plume has been studied in connection with the seismological
RHUM-RUM project, which has recently provided new seismic tomography images that yield an excellent match with the geodynamic model.
Regarding the Iceland plume, the numerical model shows how plume material may have accumulated in an east-west trending corridor of thin lithosphere across Greenland and resulted in simultaneous melt generation west and east of Greenland. This provides an explanation for the
extremely widespread volcanic material attributed to magma production of the Iceland hotspot and demonstrates that the model setup is also able to explain more complicated hotspot histories. The Iceland model results also agree well with newly derived seismic tomographic images.
The Kerguelen hotspot has an extremely complex history and previous studies concluded that the plume might be dismembered or influenced by solitary waves in its conduit to produce the reconstructed variable melt production rate. The geodynamic model, however, shows that a constant plume influx can result in a variable magma production rate if the plume interacts with nearby mid-ocean ridges. Moreover, the Ninetyeast Ridge in the model is created by on-ridge activities, while the Kerguelen plume was located beneath the Australian plate. This is also a contrast to earlier studies, which described the Ninetyeast Ridge as the result of the Indian plate passing over the plume. Furthermore, the Amsterdam-Saint Paul Plateau in the model is the result of plume material flowing from the upwelling toward the Southeast Indian Ridge, whereas previous geochemical studies attributed that volcanic province to a separate deep plume.
In summary, the three case studies presented in this thesis consistently highlight the importance of plume-ridge interaction in order to reconstruct the overall volcanic hotspot record as well as specific smaller features attributed to a certain hotspot. They also demonstrate that it is not necessary to attribute highly complicated properties to a specific plume in order to account for complex observations. Thus, this thesis contributes to the general understanding of plume dynamics and extends the very specific knowledge about the Réunion, Iceland, and Kerguelen mantle plumes.
The strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is considered to be the main driver of climate changes over the European and western Asian continents throughout the last millennium. For example, the predominantly warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the following cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA) over Europe have been associated with long-lasting phases with a positive and negative NAO index. Its climatic imprint is especially pronounced in European winter seasons. However, little is known about the influence of NAO with respect to its eastern extent over the Eurasian continent. Here we present speleothem records (PC, 8180 and Sr/Ca) from the southern rim of Fergana Basin (Central Asia) revealing annually resolved past climate variations during the last millennium. The age control of the stalagmite relies on radiocarbon dating as large amounts of detrital material inhibit accurate 230Th dating. Present-day calcification of the stalagmite is most effective during spring when the cave atmosphere and elevated water supply by snow melting and high amount of spring precipitation provide optimal conditions. Seasonal precipitation variations cause changes of the stable isotope and Sr/ Ca compositions. The simultaneous changes in these geochemical proxies, however, give also evidence for fractionation processes in the cave. By disentangling both processes, we demonstrate that the amount of winter precipitation during the MCA was generally higher than during the LIA, which is in line with climatic changes linked to the NAO index but opposite to the higher mountain records of Central Asia. Several events of strongly reduced winter precipitation are observed during the LIA in Central Asia. These dry winter events can be related to phases of a strong negative NAO index and all results reveal that winter precipitation over the central Eurasian continent is tightly linked to atmospheric NAO modes by the westerly wind systems. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
We present a study of the local atomic environment of the oxygen atoms in the aqueous solutions of NaOH and HCl under simultaneous high-temperature and high-pressure conditions. Experimental nonresonant X-ray Raman scattering core-level spectra at the oxygen K-edge show systematic changes as a function of temperature and pressure. These systematic changes are distinct for the two different solutes and are described well by calculations within the Bethe- Salpeter formalism for snapshots from ab initio molecular dynamics simulations. The agreement between experimental and simulation results allows us to use the computations for a detailed fingerprinting analysis in an effort to elucidate the local atomic structure and hydrogen-bonding topology in these relevant solutions. We observe that both electrolytes, especially NaOH, enhance hydrogen bonding and tetrahedrality in the water structure at supercritical conditions, in particular in the vicinity of the hydration shells. This effect is accompanied with the association of the HCl and NaOH molecules at elevated temperatures.
Bumps in river profiles: uncertainty assessment and smoothing using quantile regression techniques
(2017)
The analysis of longitudinal river profiles is an important tool for studying landscape evolution. However, characterizing river profiles based on digital elevation models (DEMs) suffers from errors and artifacts that particularly prevail along valley bottoms. The aim of this study is to characterize uncertainties that arise from the analysis of river profiles derived from different, near-globally available DEMs. We devised new algorithms quantile carving and the CRS algorithm - that rely on quantile regression to enable hydrological correction and the uncertainty quantification of river profiles. We find that globally available DEMs commonly overestimate river elevations in steep topography. The distributions of elevation errors become increasingly wider and right skewed if adjacent hillslope gradients are steep. Our analysis indicates that the AW3D DEM has the highest precision and lowest bias for the analysis of river profiles in mountainous topography. The new 12m resolution TanDEM-X DEM has a very low precision, most likely due to the combined effect of steep valley walls and the presence of water surfaces in valley bottoms. Compared to the conventional approaches of carving and filling, we find that our new approach is able to reduce the elevation bias and errors in longitudinal river profiles.
Detection and Kirchhoff-type migration of seismic events by use of a new characteristic function
(2017)
The classical method of seismic event localization is based on the picking of body wave arrivals, ray tracing and inversion of travel time data. Travel time picks with small uncertainties are required to produce reliable and accurate results with this kind of source localization. Hence recordings, with a low Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) cannot be used in a travel time based inversion. Low SNR can be related with weak signals from distant and/or low magnitude sources as well as with a high level of ambient noise. Diffraction stacking is considered as an alternative seismic event localization method that enables also the processing of low SNR recordings by mean of stacking the amplitudes of seismograms along a travel time function. The location of seismic event and its origin time are determined based on the highest stacked amplitudes (coherency) of the image function. The method promotes an automatic processing since it does not need travel time picks as input data.
However, applying diffraction stacking may require longer computation times if only limited computer resources are used. Furthermore, a simple diffraction stacking of recorded amplitudes could possibly fail to locate the seismic sources if the focal mechanism leads to complex radiation patterns which typically holds for both natural and induced seismicity.
In my PhD project, I have developed a new work flow for the localization of seismic events which is based on a diffraction stacking approach. A parallelized code was implemented for the calculation of travel time tables and for the determination of an image function to reduce computation time. In order to address the effects from complex source radiation patterns, I also suggest to compute diffraction stacking from a characteristic function (CF) instead of stacking the original wave form data. A new CF, which is called in the following mAIC (modified from Akaike Information Criterion) is proposed. I demonstrate that, the performance of the mAIC does not depend on the chosen length of the analyzed time window and that both P- and S-wave onsets can be detected accurately. To avoid cross-talk between P- and S-waves due to inaccurate velocity models, I separate the P- and S-waves from the mAIC function by making use of polarization attributes. Then, eventually the final image function is represented by the largest eigenvalue as a result of the covariance analysis between P- and S-image functions. Before applying diffraction stacking, I also apply seismogram denoising by using Otsu thresholding in the time-frequency domain.
Results from synthetic experiments show that the proposed diffraction stacking provides reliable results even from seismograms with low SNR=1. Tests with different presentations of the synthetic seismograms (displacement, velocity, and acceleration) shown that, acceleration seismograms deliver better results in case of high SNR, whereas displacement seismograms provide more accurate results in case of low SNR recordings. In another test, different measures (maximum amplitude, other statistical parameters) were used to determine the source location in the final image function. I found that the statistical approach is the preferred method particularly for low SNR.
The work flow of my diffraction stacking method was finally applied to local earthquake data from Sumatra, Indonesia. Recordings from a temporary network of 42 stations deployed for 9 months around the Tarutung pull-apart Basin were analyzed. The seismic event locations resulting from the diffraction stacking method align along a segment of the Sumatran Fault. A more complex distribution of seismicity is imaged within and around the Tarutung Basin. Two lineaments striking N-S were found in the middle of the Tarutung Basin which support independent results from structural geology. These features are interpreted as opening fractures due to local extension. A cluster of seismic events repeatedly occurred in short time which might be related to fluid drainage since two hot springs are observed at the surface near to this cluster.
Information on the contemporary in-situ stress state of the earth’s crust is essential for geotechnical applications and physics-based seismic hazard assessment. Yet, stress data records for a data point are incomplete and their availability is usually not dense enough to allow conclusive statements. This demands a thorough examination of the in-situ stress field which is achieved by 3D geomechanicalnumerical models. However, the models spatial resolution is limited and the resulting local stress state is subject to large uncertainties that confine the significance of the findings. In addition, temporal variations of the in-situ stress field are naturally or anthropogenically induced. In my thesis I address these challenges in three manuscripts that investigate (1) the current crustal stress field orientation, (2) the 3D geomechanical-numerical modelling of the in-situ stress state, and (3) the phenomenon of injection induced temporal stress tensor rotations. In the first manuscript I present the first comprehensive stress data compilation of Iceland with 495 data records. Therefore, I analysed image logs from 57 boreholes in Iceland for indicators of the orientation of the maximum horizontal stress component. The study is the first stress survey from different kinds of stress indicators in a geologically very young and tectonically active area of an onshore spreading ridge. It reveals a distinct stress field with a depth independent stress orientation even very close to the spreading centre. In the second manuscript I present a calibrated 3D geomechanical-numerical modelling approach of the in-situ stress state of the Bavarian Molasse Basin that investigates the regional (70x70x10km³) and local (10x10x10km³) stress state. To link these two models I develop a multi-stage modelling approach that provides a reliable and efficient method to derive from the larger scale model initial and boundary conditions for the smaller scale model. Furthermore, I quantify the uncertainties in the models results which are inherent to geomechanical-numerical modelling in general and the multi-stage approach in particular. I show that the significance of the models results is mainly reduced due to the uncertainties in the material properties and the low number of available stress magnitude data records for calibration. In the third manuscript I investigate the phenomenon of injection induced temporal stress tensor rotation and its controlling factors. I conduct a sensitivity study with a 3D generic thermo-hydro-mechanical model. I show that the key control factors for the stress tensor rotation are the permeability as the decisive factor, the injection rate, and the initial differential stress. In particular for enhanced geothermal systems with a low permeability large rotations of the stress tensor are indicated. According to these findings the estimation of the initial differential stress in a reservoir is possible provided the permeability is known and the angle of stress rotation is observed. I propose that the stress tensor rotations can be a key factor in terms of the potential for induced seismicity on pre-existing faults due to the reorientation of the stress field that changes the optimal orientation of faults.
High precipitation quantiles tend to rise with temperature, following the so-called Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) scaling. It is often reported that the CC-scaling relation breaks down and even reverts for very high temperatures. In our study, we investigate this reversal using observational climate data from 142 stations across Germany. One of the suggested meteorological explanations for the breakdown is limited moisture supply. Here we argue that, instead, it could simply originate from undersampling. As rainfall frequency generally decreases with higher temperatures, rainfall intensities as dictated by CC scaling are less likely to be recorded than for moderate temperatures. Empirical quantiles are conventionally estimated from order statistics via various forms of plotting position formulas. They have in common that their largest representable return period is given by the sample size. In small samples, high quantiles are underestimated accordingly. The small-sample effect is weaker, or disappears completely, when using parametric quantile estimates from a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) fitted with L moments. For those, we obtain quantiles of rainfall intensities that continue to rise with temperature.
High precipitation quantiles tend to rise with temperature, following the so-called Clausius–Clapeyron (CC) scaling. It is often reported that the CC-scaling relation breaks down and even reverts for very high temperatures. In our study, we investigate this reversal using observational climate data from 142 stations across Germany. One of the suggested meteorological explanations for the breakdown is limited moisture supply. Here we argue that, instead, it could simply originate from undersampling. As rainfall frequency generally decreases with higher temperatures, rainfall intensities as dictated by CC scaling are less likely to be recorded than for moderate temperatures. Empirical quantiles are conventionally estimated from order statistics via various forms of plotting position formulas. They have in common that their largest representable return period is given by the sample size. In small samples, high quantiles are underestimated accordingly. The small-sample effect is weaker, or disappears completely, when using parametric quantile estimates from a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) fitted with L moments. For those, we obtain quantiles of rainfall intensities that continue to rise with temperature.
Die zerstörungsfreien Prüfungen von Bauwerken mit Hilfe von Ultraschallmessverfahren haben in den letzten Jahren an Bedeutung gewonnen. Durch Ultraschallmessungen können die Geometrien von Bauteilen bestimmt sowie von außen nicht sichtbare Fehler wie Delaminationen und Kiesnester erkannt werden.
Mit neuartigen, in das Betonbauteil eingebetteten Ultraschallprüfköpfen sollen nun Bauwerke dauerhaft auf Veränderungen überprüft werden. Dazu werden Ultraschallsignale direkt im Inneren eines Bauteils erzeugt, was die Möglichkeiten der herkömmlichen Methoden der Bauwerksüberwachung wesentlich erweitert. Ein Ultraschallverfahren könnte mit eingebetteten Prüfköpfen ein Betonbauteil kontinuierlich integral überwachen und damit auch stetig fortschreitende Gefügeänderungen, wie beispielsweise Mikrorisse, registrieren.
Sicherheitsrelevante Bauteile, die nach dem Einbau für Messungen unzugänglich oder mittels Ultraschall, beispielsweise durch zusätzliche Beschichtungen der Oberfläche, nicht prüfbar sind, lassen sich mit eingebetteten Prüfköpfen überwachen. An bereits vorhandenen Bauwerken können die Ultraschallprüfköpfe mithilfe von Bohrlöchern und speziellem Verpressmörtel auch nachträglich in das Bauteil integriert werden. Für Fertigbauteile bieten sich eingebettete Prüfköpfe zur Herstellungskontrolle sowie zur Überwachung der Baudurchführung als Werkzeug der Qualitätssicherung an. Auch die schnelle Schadensanalyse eines Bauwerks nach Naturkatastrophen, wie beispielsweise einem Erdbeben oder einer Flut, ist denkbar.
Durch die gute Ankopplung ermöglichen diese neuartigen Prüfköpfe den Einsatz von empfindlichen Auswertungsmethoden, wie die Kreuzkorrelation, die Coda-Wellen-Interferometrie oder die Amplitudenauswertung, für die Signalanalyse. Bei regelmäßigen Messungen können somit sich anbahnende Schäden eines Bauwerks frühzeitig erkannt werden.
Da die Schädigung eines Bauwerks keine direkt messbare Größe darstellt, erfordert eine eindeutige Schadenserkennung in der Regel die Messung mehrerer physikalischer Größen die geeignet verknüpft werden. Physikalische Größen können sein: Ultraschalllaufzeit, Amplitude des Ultraschallsignals und Umgebungstemperatur. Dazu müssen Korrelationen zwischen dem Zustand des Bauwerks, den Umgebungsbedingungen und den Parametern des gemessenen Ultraschallsignals untersucht werden.
In dieser Arbeit werden die neuartigen Prüfköpfe vorgestellt. Es wird beschrieben, dass sie sich, sowohl in bereits errichtete Betonbauwerke als auch in der Konstruktion befindliche, einbauen lassen. Experimentell wird gezeigt, dass die Prüfköpfe in mehreren Ebenen eingebettet sein können da ihre Abstrahlcharakteristik im Beton nahezu ungerichtet ist. Die Mittenfrequenz von rund 62 kHz ermöglicht Abstände, je nach Betonart und SRV, von mindestens 3 m zwischen Prüfköpfen die als Sender und Empfänger arbeiten. Die Empfindlichkeit der eingebetteten Prüfköpfe gegenüber Veränderungen im Beton wird an Hand von zwei Laborexperimenten gezeigt, einem Drei-Punkt-Biegeversuch und einem Versuch zur Erzeugung von Frost-Tau-Wechsel Schäden. Die Ergebnisse werden mit anderen zerstörungsfreien Prüfverfahren verglichen. Es zeigt sich, dass die Prüfköpfe durch die Anwendung empfindlicher Auswertemethoden, auftretende Risse im Beton detektieren, bevor diese eine Gefahr für das Bauwerk darstellen. Abschließend werden Beispiele von Installation der neuartigen Ultraschallprüfköpfe in realen Bauteilen, zwei Brücken und einem Fundament, gezeigt und basierend auf dort gewonnenen ersten Erfahrungen ein Konzept für die Umsetzung einer Langzeitüberwachung aufgestellt.
Remote sensing technology serves as a powerful tool for analyzing geospatial characteristics of flood inundation events at various scales. However, the performance of remote sensing methods depends heavily on the flood characteristics and landscape settings. Difficulties might be encountered in mapping the extent of localized flooding with shallow water on riverine floodplain areas, where patches of herbaceous vegetation are interspersed with open water surfaces. To address the difficulties in mapping inundation on areas with complex water and vegetation compositions, a high spatial resolution dataset has to be used to reduce the problem of mixed pixels. The main objective of our study was to investigate the possibilities of using a single date WorldView-2 image of very high spatial resolution and supporting data to analyze spatial patterns of localized flooding on a riverine floodplain. We used a decision tree algorithm with various combinations of input variables including spectral bands of the WorldView-2 image, selected spectral indices dedicated to mapping water surfaces and vegetation, and topographic data. The overall accuracies of the twelve flood extent maps derived with the decision tree method and performed on both pixels and image objects ranged between 77% and 95%. The highest mapping overall accuracy was achieved with a method that utilized all available input data and the object-based image analysis. Our study demonstrates the possibility of using single date WorldView-2 data for analyzing flooding events at high spatial detail despite the absence of spectral bands from the short-waveform region that are frequently used in water related studies. Our study also highlights the importance of topographic data in inundation analyses. The greatest difficulties were met in mapping water surfaces under dense canopy herbaceous vegetation, due to limited water surface exposure and the dominance of vegetation reflectance.
In light of possible future restrictions on the use of fossil fuel, due to climate change obligations and continuous depletion of global fossil fuel reserves, the search for alternative renewable energy sources is expected to be an issue of great concern for policy stakeholders. This study assessed the feasibility of bioenergy production under relatively low-intensity conservative, eco-agricultural settings (as opposed to those produced under high-intensity, fossil fuel based industrialized agriculture). Estimates of the net energy gain (NEG) and the energy return on energy invested (EROEI) obtained from a life cycle inventory of the energy inputs and outputs involved reveal that the energy efficiency of bioenergy produced in low-intensity eco-agricultural systems could be as much as much as 448.5–488.3 GJ·ha−1 of NEG and an EROEI of 5.4–5.9 for maize ethanol production systems, and as much as 155.0–283.9 GJ·ha−1 of NEG and an EROEI of 14.7–22.4 for maize biogas production systems. This is substantially higher than for industrialized agriculture with a NEG of 2.8–52.5 GJ·ha−1 and an EROEI of 1.2–1.7 for maize ethanol production systems, as well as a NEG of 59.3–188.7 GJ·ha−1 and an EROEI of 2.2–10.2 for maize biogas production systems. Bioenergy produced in low-intensity eco-agricultural systems could therefore be an important source of energy with immense net benefits for local and regional end-users, provided a more efficient use of the co-products is ensured.
Mentor Texts
(2017)
In 2009, a group of prominent Earth scientists introduced the "planetary boundaries" (PB) framework: they suggested nine global control variables, and defined corresponding "thresholds which, if crossed, could generate unacceptable environmental change". The concept builds on systems theory, and views Earth as a complex adaptive system in which anthropogenic disturbances may trigger non-linear, abrupt, and irreversible changes at the global scale, and "push the Earth system outside the stable environmental state of the Holocene". While the idea has been remarkably successful in both science and policy circles, it has also raised fundamental concerns, as the majority of suggested processes and their corresponding planetary boundaries do not operate at the global scale, and thus apparently lack the potential to trigger abrupt planetary changes.
This paper picks up the debate with specific regard to the planetary boundary on "global freshwater use". While the bio-physical impacts of excessive water consumption are typically confined to the river basin scale, the PB proponents argue that water-induced environmental disasters could build up to planetary-scale feedbacks and system failures. So far, however, no evidence has been presented to corroborate that hypothesis. Furthermore, no coherent approach has been presented to what extent a planetary threshold value could reflect the risk of regional environmental disaster. To be sure, the PB framework was revised in 2015, extending the planetary freshwater boundary with a set of basin-level boundaries inferred from environmental water flow assumptions. Yet, no new evidence was presented, either with respect to the ability of those basin-level boundaries to reflect the risk of regional regime shifts or with respect to a potential mechanism linking river basins to the planetary scale.
So while the idea of a planetary boundary on freshwater use appears intriguing, the line of arguments presented so far remains speculative and implicatory. As long as Earth system science does not present compelling evidence, the exercise of assigning actual numbers to such a boundary is arbitrary, premature, and misleading. Taken as a basis for water-related policy and management decisions, though, the idea transforms from misleading to dangerous, as it implies that we can globally offset water-related environmental impacts. A planetary boundary on freshwater use should thus be disapproved and actively refuted by the hydrological and water resources community.
In 2009, a group of prominent Earth scientists introduced the "planetary boundaries" (PB) framework: they suggested nine global control variables, and defined corresponding "thresholds which, if crossed, could generate unacceptable environmental change". The concept builds on systems theory, and views Earth as a complex adaptive system in which anthropogenic disturbances may trigger non-linear, abrupt, and irreversible changes at the global scale, and "push the Earth system outside the stable environmental state of the Holocene". While the idea has been remarkably successful in both science and policy circles, it has also raised fundamental concerns, as the majority of suggested processes and their corresponding planetary boundaries do not operate at the global scale, and thus apparently lack the potential to trigger abrupt planetary changes.
This paper picks up the debate with specific regard to the planetary boundary on "global freshwater use". While the bio-physical impacts of excessive water consumption are typically confined to the river basin scale, the PB proponents argue that water-induced environmental disasters could build up to planetary-scale feedbacks and system failures. So far, however, no evidence has been presented to corroborate that hypothesis. Furthermore, no coherent approach has been presented to what extent a planetary threshold value could reflect the risk of regional environmental disaster. To be sure, the PB framework was revised in 2015, extending the planetary freshwater boundary with a set of basin-level boundaries inferred from environmental water flow assumptions. Yet, no new evidence was presented, either with respect to the ability of those basin-level boundaries to reflect the risk of regional regime shifts or with respect to a potential mechanism linking river basins to the planetary scale.
So while the idea of a planetary boundary on freshwater use appears intriguing, the line of arguments presented so far remains speculative and implicatory. As long as Earth system science does not present compelling evidence, the exercise of assigning actual numbers to such a boundary is arbitrary, premature, and misleading. Taken as a basis for water-related policy and management decisions, though, the idea transforms from misleading to dangerous, as it implies that we can globally offset water-related environmental impacts. A planetary boundary on freshwater use should thus be disapproved and actively refuted by the hydrological and water resources community.
Underground coal gasification (UCG) has the potential to increase worldwide coal reserves by developing coal resources, currently not economically extractable by conventional mining methods. For that purpose, coal is combusted in situ to produce a high-calorific synthesis gas with different end-use options, including electricity generation as well as production of fuels and chemical feedstock. Apart from the high economic potentials, UCG may induce site‐specific environmental impacts, including ground surface subsidence and pollutant migration of UCG by-products into shallow freshwater aquifers. Sustainable and efficient UCG operation requires a thorough understanding of the coupled thermal, hydraulic and mechanical processes, occurring in the UCG reactor vicinity. The development and infrastructure costs of UCG trials are very high; therefore, numerical simulations of coupled processes in UCG are essential for the assessment of potential environmental impacts. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to assess UCG-induced permeability changes, potential hydraulic short circuit formation and non-isothermal multiphase fluid flow dynamics by means of coupled numerical simulations. Simulation results on permeability changes in the UCG reactor vicinity demonstrate that temperature-dependent thermo-mechanical parameters have to be considered in near-field assessments, only. Hence, far-field simulations do not become inaccurate, but benefit from increased computational efficiency when thermo-mechanical parameters are maintained constant. Simulations on potential hydraulic short circuit formation between single UCG reactors at regional-scale emphasize that geologic faults may induce hydraulic connections, and thus compromise efficient UCG operation. In this context, the steam jacket surrounding high-temperature UCG reactors plays a vital role in avoiding UCG by-products escaping into freshwater aquifers and in minimizing energy consumption by formation fluid evaporation. A steam jacket emerges in the close reactor vicinity due to phase transition of formation water and is a non-isothermal flow phenomenon. Considering this complex multiphase flow behavior, an innovative conceptual modeling approach, validated against field data, enables the quantification and prediction of UCG reactor water balances. The findings of this doctoral thesis provide an important basis for integration of thermo-hydro-mechanical simulations in UCG, required for the assessment and mitigation of its potential environmental impacts as well as optimization of its efficiency.
Tidal marsh vegetation offers important ecosystem services. However, in many estuaries, extensive embankments, artificial bank protection, river dredging and agriculture threaten tidal marshes. In this study we analysed the processes underlying the spatio-temporal patterns of tidal marsh vegetation in the Elbe estuary and quantified the influence of specific habitat factors by developing and applying the process-based dynamic habitat-macrophyte model HaMac in a pattern-oriented way. In order to develop and parameterise the model, we measured a wide range of biotic and abiotic parameters in two study sites in the Elbe estuary and compared observed and simulated patterns. The final model is able to reproduce the general patterns of vegetation zonation, development and growth and thus helps to understand the underlying processes. By considering the vegetative reproduction of marsh plants as well as abiotic influence factors and intraspecific competition, HaMac allowed to systematically analyse the significance of factors and processes for the dynamic of tidal marsh vegetation. Our results show that rhizome growth is the most important process and that flow velocity, inundation height and duration as well as intraspecific competition are the most important habitat factors for explaining spatio-temporal dynamics of brackish marshes. Future applications of HaMac could support the sustainable development and stabilisation of shore zones and thus contribute to the promotion and planning of ecosystem -based shoreline protection measures. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
River-bed disturbance and associated sedimentary processes such as particle mobility are central elements to assess river ecosystem functioning. Dams change river dynamics affecting the magnitude and frequency of biophysical elements that depend on them. This paper examines the effects of two dams different in size, management, and location, on the flow regime, flood competence, and bed disturbance in two contrasting Mediterranean rivers, the Esera and the Siurana. For this purpose, two reaches on each river were monitored upstream and downstream from reservoirs. Several monitoring and modeling techniques were used to characterize flow competence, particle entrainment, and the volumes of sediments eroded and deposited after floods. The flow regime of the Esera has been modified from nivo-pluvial regime, typical of humid mountainous environments, to that observed in dry semiarid regions, in which high magnitude but low frequency floods are the dominant processes. Conversely, the flow regime of the Siurana has changed from a typical Mediterranean stream to a regime observed in more temperate environments, with more permanent and stable flows. Both rivers show notably physical changes, with channels clearly less dynamic below the dams. The lack of competent flows together with the sediment deficit associated with the dams has led to less active fluvial environments (reduced particle mobility and bed scour dynamics), a fact that affects instream habitat structure (more uniform grain size distribution, less physical heterogeneity, more stable flows), overall contributing to the degradation of the stream corridor and the subsequent environmental deterioration of the whole fluvial landscape. Copyright (c) 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
The development of well-constrained palaeo-proxies that enable the reconstruction of past climate change is becoming an ever more important field of scientific enquiry within the palaeobotanical community, with the potential to deliver broader impacts linked to understanding of future anthropogenic climate change. One of the major uncertainties in predicting climate change is how the hydrological cycle will respond to future warming. Griener and Warny (2015, Review of Palaeobotany and Palynology 221,138-143) suggested that pollen size might be a useful proxy for tracking moisture availability, as pollen size appears to be negatively correlated with moisture. Given the long fossil record of pollen and spores such a proxy would have broad scope and the potential to deliver much needed information. Here we set out to fully evaluate and test the robustness of this proxy. We focus on a number of key issues: controls on pollen size, data analysis, and finally proxy validation. Using this approach we find that there is little theoretical or empirical support for the original relationship proposed by Griener and Warny. Consequently it is currently premature to use pollen size as a moisture availability proxy in the fossil record. However, we recognise that the technique may have potential and conclude by offering a series of recommendations that would rigorously assess and test for a relationship between pollen size and moisture availability. (c) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Uplift of the Al Hajar Mountains in Oman has been related to either Late Cretaceous ophiolite obduction or the Neogene Zagros collision. To test these hypotheses, the cooling of the central Al Hajar Mountains is constrained by 10 apatite (U-Th)/He (AHe), 15 fission track (AFT), and four zircon (U-Th)/He (ZHe) sample ages. These data show differential cooling between the two major structural culminations of the mountains. In the 3km high Jabal Akhdar culmination AHe single-grain ages range between 392 Ma and 101 Ma (2 sigma errors), AFT ages range from 518 Ma to 324 Ma, and ZHe single-grain ages range from 62 +/- 3Ma to 39 +/- 2 Ma. In the 2 km high Saih Hatat culmination AHe ages range from 26 +/- 4 to 12 +/- 4 Ma, AFT ages from 73 +/- 19Ma to 57 +/- 8 Ma, and ZHe single-grain ages from 81 +/- 4 Ma to 58 +/- 3 Ma. Thermal modeling demonstrates that cooling associated with uplift and erosion initiated at 40 Ma, indicating that uplift occurred 30 Myr after ophiolite obduction and at least 10 Myr before the Zagros collision. Therefore, this uplift cannot be related to either event. We propose that crustal thickening supporting the topography of the Al Hajar Mountains was caused by a slowdown of Makran subduction and that north Oman took up the residual fraction of N-S convergence between Arabia and Eurasia.
This special issue is the result of several fruitful conference sessions on disturbance hydrology, which started at the 2013 AGU Fall Meeting in San Francisco and have continued every year since. The stimulating presentations and discussions surrounding those sessions have focused on understanding both the disruption of hydrologic functioning following discrete disturbances, as well as the subsequent recovery or change within the affected watershed system. Whereas some hydrologic disturbances are directly linked to anthropogenic activities, such as resource extraction, the contributions to this special issue focus primarily on those with indirect or less pronounced human involvement, such as bark-beetle infestation, wildfire, and other natural hazards. However, human activities are enhancing the severity and frequency of these seemingly natural disturbances, thereby contributing to acute hydrologic problems and hazards. Major research challenges for our increasingly disturbed planet include the lack of continuous pre and postdisturbance monitoring, hydrologic impacts that vary spatially and temporally based on environmental and hydroclimatic conditions, and the preponderance of overlapping or compounding disturbance sequences. In addition, a conceptual framework for characterizing commonalities and differences among hydrologic disturbances is still in its infancy. In this introduction to the special issue, we advance the fusion of concepts and terminology from ecology and hydrology to begin filling this gap. We briefly explore some preliminary approaches for comparing different disturbances and their hydrologic impacts, which provides a starting point for further dialogue and research progress.
The opening of the South Atlantic is a classical example for a plume related continental breakup. Flood basalts are present on both conjugate margins as well as aseismic ridges connecting them with the current plume location at Tristan da Cunha. To determine the effect of the proposed plume head on the continental crust, we acquired wide-angle seismic data at the junction of the Walvis Ridge with the African continent and modelled the P-wave velocity structure in a forward approach. The profile extends 430 km along the ridge and continues onshore to a length of 720 km. Crustal velocities beneath the Walvis Ridge vary between 5.5 km/s and 7.0 km/s, a typical range for oceanic crust. The crustal thickness of 22 km, however, is approximately three times larger than of normal oceanic crust. The continent-ocean transition is characterized by 30 km thick crust with strong lateral velocity variations in the upper crust and a high-velocity lower crust (HVLC), where velocities reach up to 7.5 km/s. The HVLC is 100 to 130 km wider at the Walvis Ridge than it is farther south, and impinges onto the continental crust of the Kaoko fold belt. Such high seismic velocities indicate Mg-rich igneous material intruded into the continental crust during the initial rifting stage. However, the remaining continental crust seems unaffected by intrusions and the root of the 40 km-thick crust of the Kaoko belt is not thermally abraded. We conclude that the plume head did not modify the continental crust on a large scale, but caused rather local effects. Thus, it seems unlikely that a plume drove or initiated the breakup process. We further propose that the plume already existed underneath the continent prior to the breakup, and ponded melt erupted at emerging rift structures providing the magma for continental flood basalts. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Passive continental margins offer the unique opportunity to study the processes involved in continental extension and break-up. Within the LISPWAL (Llthospheric Structure of the Namibian continental Passive margin at the intersection with the Walvis Ridge from amphibious seismic investigations) project, combined on- and offshore seismic experiments were designed to characterize the Southern African passive margin at the Walvis Ridge in northern Namibia. In addition to extensive analysis of the crustal structures, we carried out seismic investigations targeting the velocity structure of the upper mantle in the landfall region of the Walvis Ridge with the Namibian coast. Upper mantle P-n travel time tomography from controlled source, amphibious seismic data was used to investigate the sub-Moho upper mantle seismic velocity. We succeeded in imaging upper mantle structures potentially associated with continental break-up and/or the Tristan da Cunha hotspot track. We found mostly coast-parallel sub-Moho velocity anomalies, interpreted as structures which were created during Gondwana break-up. (C)2016 Published by Elsevier B.V.
Water keeps puzzling scientists because of its numerous properties which behave oppositely to those of usual liquids: for instance, water expands upon cooling, and liquid water is denser than ice. To explain this anomalous behavior, several theories have been proposed, with different predictions for the properties of supercooled water (liquid at conditions where ice is stable). However, discriminating between those theories with experiments has remained elusive because of spontaneous ice nucleation. Here we measure the sound velocity in liquid water stretched to negative pressure and derive an experimental equation of state, which reveals compressibility anomalies. We show by rigorous thermodynamic relations how these anomalies are intricately linked with the density anomaly. Some features we observe are necessary conditions for the validity of two theories of water.
Competing hypotheses suggest that Himalayan topography is sustained and the plate convergence is accommodated either solely along the basal decollement, the Main Himalayan thrust (MHT), or more broadly, across multiple thrust faults. In the past, structural, geomorphic, and geodetic data of the Nepalese Himalaya have been used to constrain the geometry of the MHT and its shallow frontal thrust fault, known as Main Frontal thrust (MFT). The MHT flattens at depth and connects to a hinterland mid-crustal, steeper thrust ramp, located similar to 100 km north of the deformation front. There, the present-day convergence across the Himalaya is mostly accommodated by slip along the MFT. Despite a general agreement that in Nepal most of the shortening is accommodated along the MHT, some researchers have suggested the occurrence of persistent out-of-sequence shortening on interior faults near the Main Central thrust (MCT). Along the northwest Himalaya, in contrast, some of these characteristics of central Nepal are missing, suggesting along-strike variation of wedge deformation and MHT fault geometry. Here we present new field observations and seven zircon (U-Th)/He (ZHe) cooling ages combined with existing low-temperature data sets. In agreement with our previous findings, we suggest that the transect of cooling age patterns across the frontal Dhauladhar Range reveals that the Main Boundary thrust (MBT) is a primary fault, which has uplifted and sustained this spectacular mountain front since at least the late Miocene. Our results suggest that the MBT forms an similar to 40-km-long fault ramp before it soles into the MHT, and motion along it has exhumed rocks from depth of similar to 8-10 km. New three-dimensional thermokinematic modeling (using Pecube finite-element code) reveals that the observed ZHe and apatite fission track cooling ages can only be explained by sustained mean MBT slip rates between similar to 2.6 and 3.5 mm a(-1) since at least 8 Ma, which corresponds to a horizontal shortening rate of similar to 1.7-2.4 mm a(-1). We propose that the MBT is active today, despite a lack of definitive field or seismogenic evidence, and continues to accommodate crustal shorting by out-of-sequence faulting. Assuming that present-day geodetic shorting rates (similar to 14 +/- 2 mm a(-1)) across the northwest Himalaya have been sustained over geologic time scales, this implies that the MBT accommodated similar to 15% of the total Himalayan convergence since its onset. Furthermore, our modeling results imply that the MHT is missing a hinterland mid-crustal ramp further north.
Pollination is a key ecosystem service. Pollinators, however, are in decline and their service is increasingly threatened. The decline is driven by several factors, most of which are related to agricultural management. However, the complexity of the landscape system, consisting of both cropped and non cropped areas, makes it difficult to address or even quantify the role of farming practices in pollinator abundance. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to improve our understanding of the relationships between pollinator abundance and their habitat use. We intend to identify and quantify the driving environmental factors that determine pollinator abundance in agricultural landscapes on the crop and landscape scale. These information helps us to design algorithms that can be used as a basis for predicting pollinator abundance on agricultural fields. To integrate varying environmental conditions data sampling was performed on farms in three different regions in Germany. Pollinators were classified into different groups with three aggregation levels. We observed crop parameters as well as landscape parameters in the areas surrounding fields in addition to temporal aspects. Generalized linear models (GLMs) were then calculated. Our results showed that both crop and landscape parameters affect pollinator abundance on agricultural fields. However, the explanatory power of the included parameters varied strongly among the particular pollinator groups and between aggregation levels. Furthermore, differentiation between species groups improves the explanatory power compared to models that are more aggregated. We also found that the temporal match between main activity periods of the particular pollinator groups and resource supply by the crop species is a key factor when analysing pollinator abundance. In conclusion, we demonstrated that the assessment and support of pollination services should be carried out with regard to individual pollinator groups. When studying pollinator abundance, the crop as well as the landscape scale should be addressed. A range of different habitat requirements and different activity periods of the pollinator groups must be covered to maintain pollination services, and therefore both diverse landscapes and diverse crop rotations are of crucial importance. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Information about the hydrological behaviour of a river basin prior to setting up, calibrating and validating a distributed hydrological model requires extensive datasets that are hardly available for many parts of the world due to insufficient monitoring networks. In this study, the focus was on prevailing spatio-temporal patterns of remotely sensed evapotranspiration (ET) that enabled conclusions to be drawn about the hydrological behaviour and spatial peculiarities of a river basin at rather high spatial resolution. The prevailing spatio-temporal patterns of ET were identified using a principal component analysis of a time series of 644 images of MODIS ET covering the Wami River basin (Tanzania) between the years 2000 and 2013. The time series of the loadings on the principal components were analysed for seasonality and significant long-term trends. The spatial patterns of principal component scores were tested for significant correlation with elevations and slopes, and for differences between different soil texture and land use classes. The results inferred that the temporal and spatial patterns of ET were related to those of preceding rainfalls. At the end of the dry season, high ET was maintained only in areas of shallow groundwater and in cloud forest nature reserves. A region of clear reduction of ET in the long-term was related to massive land use change. The results also confirmed that most soil texture and land use classes differed significantly. Moreover, ET was exceptionally high in natural forests and loam soil, and very low in bushland and sandy-loam soil. Clearly, this approach has shown great potential of publicly available remote sensing data in providing a sound basis for water resources management as well as for distributed hydrological models in data-scarce river basins at lower latitudes.