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Precambrian microcontinents represent key tectonic units in the accretionary collages of the western Central Asian Orogenic Belt (CAOB), and their geological history is reasonably well established since the Mesoproterozoic but remains weakly constrained for older epochs due to a scarcity of exposed Palaeoproterozoic and Archaean rocks. Early Precambrian rocks were previously reported from several metamorphic complexes in the Kyrgyz Tianshan orogenic belt, mainly based on multigrain conventional zircon dating, but the present study only confirmed such rocks at one site, namely in the Kuilyu Complex of eastern Kyrgyzstan. New single grain SHRIMP II zircon ages, geochemical data, and whole-rock Nd isotopic compositions for granitoid gneisses of the Kuilyu Complex elucidate the age, origin and tectonic settings of this oldest continental fragment in the Tianshan. The Kuilyu Complex is part of the basement in the Ishim - Middle Tianshan microcontinent. It consist of a strongly deformed and metamorphosed supracrustal assemblage of paragneisses and schists which are tectonically interlayered with amphibolites, migmatites and granitoid gneisses. Our zircon dating indicates that the Kuilyu Complex contains two suites of Palaeoproterozoic granitoid gneisses with magmatic protolith ages of ca. 2.32-2.33 Ga and 1.85 Ga. Granitoid magmatism at 1.85 Ga was almost immediately followed by amphibolite-facies metamorphism at ca 1.83 Ga, evidenced by growth of metamorphic zircon rims. The older, ca 2.3 Ga granitoid gneisses chemically correspond to calc-alkaline, metaluminous, I-type magnesian quartz diorite and granodiorite. The protolith of the younger, ca. 1.85 Ga granite-gneiss is an alkalic-calcic, metaluminous to peraluminous, ferroan medium-grained porphyric granite with chemical features resembling A-type granites. The 2.3 Ga and 1.85 Ga granitoid gneisses have slightly to distinctly negative initial epsilon(Nd) values of -1.2 and -6.6, and similar depleted mantle Nd model ages of 2.7-2.6 Ga, which imply melting of Neoarchaean continental crust. The zircon age patterns of the Kuilyu Complex resemble those of exposed rocks in the Tarim Craton, where episodes of granitoid magmatism at ca. 2.3-2.4 and 1.85 Ga, followed by amphibolite-facies metamorphism at ca 1.85 Ga, are also recorded. Similarities in the early Precambrian magmatic and metamorphic episodes as well as similar histories during the Neoproterozoic and early Palaeozoic suggest that the Ishim-Middle Tianshan microcontinent was rifted off the Tarim Craton. Similar age patterns also suggest possible tectonic links of the Kuilyu and Tarim continental blocks with the Baidrag Block of central Mongolia. In contrast, substantial differences in age and Precambrian evolution between the Anrakhai block of southern Kazakhstan and the Kuilyu Complex argue against a previous connection and suggest the former to represent an independent continental terrane. Current data show that early Precambrian rocks in the western CAOB outside Tarim only occur at two sites, namely in the Anrakhai Complex of southern Kazakhstan and in the Kuilyu Complex of eastern Kyrgyzstan. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Winter precipitation forecast in the European and mediterranean regions using cluster analysis
(2017)
The European climate is changing under global warming, and especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as a hot spot for climate change with climate models projecting a reduction in winter rainfall and a very pronounced increase in summertime heat waves. These trends are already detectable over the historic period. Hence, it is beneficial to forecast seasonal droughts well in advance so that water managers and stakeholders can prepare to mitigate deleterious impacts. We developed a new cluster-based empirical forecast method to predict precipitation anomalies in winter. This algorithm considers not only the strength but also the pattern of the precursors. We compare our algorithm with dynamic forecast models and a canonical correlation analysis-based prediction method demonstrating that our prediction method performs better in terms of time and pattern correlation in the Mediterranean and European regions.
The strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is considered to be the main driver of climate changes over the European and western Asian continents throughout the last millennium. For example, the predominantly warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the following cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA) over Europe have been associated with long-lasting phases with a positive and negative NAO index. Its climatic imprint is especially pronounced in European winter seasons. However, little is known about the influence of NAO with respect to its eastern extent over the Eurasian continent. Here we present speleothem records (PC, 8180 and Sr/Ca) from the southern rim of Fergana Basin (Central Asia) revealing annually resolved past climate variations during the last millennium. The age control of the stalagmite relies on radiocarbon dating as large amounts of detrital material inhibit accurate 230Th dating. Present-day calcification of the stalagmite is most effective during spring when the cave atmosphere and elevated water supply by snow melting and high amount of spring precipitation provide optimal conditions. Seasonal precipitation variations cause changes of the stable isotope and Sr/ Ca compositions. The simultaneous changes in these geochemical proxies, however, give also evidence for fractionation processes in the cave. By disentangling both processes, we demonstrate that the amount of winter precipitation during the MCA was generally higher than during the LIA, which is in line with climatic changes linked to the NAO index but opposite to the higher mountain records of Central Asia. Several events of strongly reduced winter precipitation are observed during the LIA in Central Asia. These dry winter events can be related to phases of a strong negative NAO index and all results reveal that winter precipitation over the central Eurasian continent is tightly linked to atmospheric NAO modes by the westerly wind systems. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Tidal marsh vegetation offers important ecosystem services. However, in many estuaries, extensive embankments, artificial bank protection, river dredging and agriculture threaten tidal marshes. In this study we analysed the processes underlying the spatio-temporal patterns of tidal marsh vegetation in the Elbe estuary and quantified the influence of specific habitat factors by developing and applying the process-based dynamic habitat-macrophyte model HaMac in a pattern-oriented way. In order to develop and parameterise the model, we measured a wide range of biotic and abiotic parameters in two study sites in the Elbe estuary and compared observed and simulated patterns. The final model is able to reproduce the general patterns of vegetation zonation, development and growth and thus helps to understand the underlying processes. By considering the vegetative reproduction of marsh plants as well as abiotic influence factors and intraspecific competition, HaMac allowed to systematically analyse the significance of factors and processes for the dynamic of tidal marsh vegetation. Our results show that rhizome growth is the most important process and that flow velocity, inundation height and duration as well as intraspecific competition are the most important habitat factors for explaining spatio-temporal dynamics of brackish marshes. Future applications of HaMac could support the sustainable development and stabilisation of shore zones and thus contribute to the promotion and planning of ecosystem -based shoreline protection measures. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Scenario-neutral response surfaces illustrate the sensitivity of a simulated natural system, represented by a specific impact variable, to systematic perturbations of climatic parameters. This type of approach has recently been developed as an alternative to top-down approaches for the assessment of climate change impacts. A major limitation of this approach is the underrepresentation of changes in the temporal structure of the climate input data (i.e., the seasonal and day-to-day variability) since this is not altered by the perturbation. This paper presents a framework that aims to examine this limitation by perturbing both observed and projected climate data time series for a future period, which both serve as input into a hydrological model (the HBV model). The resulting multiple response surfaces are compared at a common domain, the standardized runoff response surface (SRRS). We apply this approach in a case study catchment in Norway to (i) analyze possible changes in mean and extreme runoff and (ii) quantify the influence of changes in the temporal structure represented by 17 different climate input sets using linear mixed-effect models. Results suggest that climate change induced increases in mean and peak flow runoff and only small changes in low flow. They further suggest that the effect of the different temporal structures of the climate input data considerably affects low flows and floods (at least 21% influence), while it is negligible for mean runoff.
Flood events can be expressed by a variety of characteristics such as flood magnitude and extent, event duration or incurred loss. Flood estimation and management may benefit from understanding how the different flood characteristics relate to the hydrological catchment conditions preceding the event and to the meteorological conditions throughout the event. In this study, we therefore propose a methodology to investigate the hydro-meteorological controls on different flood characteristics, based on the simulation of the complete flood risk chain from the flood triggering precipitation event, through runoff generation in the catchment, flood routing and possible inundation in the river system and floodplains to flood loss. Conditional cumulative distribution functions and regression tree analysis delineate the seasonal varying flood processes and indicate that the effect of the hydrological pre-conditions, i.e. soil moisture patterns, and of the meteorological conditions, i.e. weather patterns, depends on the considered flood characteristic. The methodology is exemplified for the Elbe catchment. In this catchment, the length of the build-up period, the event duration and the number of gauges undergoing at least a 10-year flood are governed by weather patterns. The affected length and the number of gauges undergoing at least a 2-year flood are however governed by soil moisture patterns. In case of flood severity and loss, the controlling factor is less pronounced. Severity is slightly governed by soil moisture patterns whereas loss is slightly governed by weather patterns. The study highlights that flood magnitude and extent arise from different flood generation processes and concludes that soil moisture patterns as well as weather patterns are not only beneficial to inform on possible flood occurrence but also on the involved flood processes and resulting flood characteristics.
Climate change is expected to exacerbate the current threats to freshwater ecosystems, yet multifaceted studies on the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity at scales that inform management planning are lacking. The aim of this study was to fill this void through the development of a novel framework for assessing climate change vulnerability tailored to freshwater ecosystems. The three dimensions of climate change vulnerability are as follows: (i) exposure to climate change, (ii) sensitivity to altered environmental conditions and (iii) resilience potential. Our vulnerability framework includes 1685 freshwater species of plants, fishes, molluscs, odonates, amphibians, crayfish and turtles alongside key features within and between catchments, such as topography and connectivity. Several methodologies were used to combine these dimensions across a variety of future climate change models and scenarios. The resulting indices were overlaid to assess the vulnerability of European freshwater ecosystems at the catchment scale (18 783 catchments). The Balkan Lakes Ohrid and Prespa and Mediterranean islands emerge as most vulnerable to climate change. For the 2030s, we showed a consensus among the applied methods whereby up to 573 lake and river catchments are highly vulnerable to climate change. The anthropogenic disruption of hydrological habitat connectivity by dams is the major factor reducing climate change resilience. A gap analysis demonstrated that the current European protected area network covers <25% of the most vulnerable catchments. Practical steps need to be taken to ensure the persistence of freshwater biodiversity under climate change. Priority should be placed on enhancing stakeholder cooperation at the major basin scale towards preventing further degradation of freshwater ecosystems and maintaining connectivity among catchments. The catchments identified as most vulnerable to climate change provide preliminary targets for development of climate change conservation management and mitigation strategies.
We investigate source processes of fluid-induced seismicity from The Geysers geothermal reservoir in California to determine their relation with hydraulic operations and improve the corresponding seismic hazard estimates. Analysis of 869 well-constrained full moment tensors (M-w 0.8-3.5) reveals significant non-double-couple components (>25%) for about 65% of the events. Volumetric deformation is governed by cumulative injection rates with larger non-double-couple components observed near the wells and during high injection periods. Source mechanisms are magnitude dependent and vary significantly between faulting regimes. Normal faulting events (M-w<2) reveal substantial volumetric components indicating dilatancy in contrast to strike-slip events that have a dominant double-couple source. Volumetric components indicating closure of cracks in the source region are mostly found for reverse faulting events with M-w>2.5. Our results imply that source processes and magnitudes of fluid-induced seismic events are strongly affected by the hydraulic operations, the reservoir stress state, and the faulting regime.
Fluvial planation surfaces, such as straths, commonly serve as recorders of climatic and tectonic changes and are formed by the lateral erosion of rivers, a process that remains poorly understood. Here we present a study of kilometer-wide, fluvially eroded, low-relief surfaces on rapidly uplifting folds in the foreland of the southwestern Tian Shan. A combination of field work, digital elevation model analysis, and dating of fluvial deposits reveals that despite an arid climate and rapid average rock-uplift rates of 1-3mm/yr, rivers cut extensive (>1-2km wide) surfaces with typical height variations of <6m over periods of >2-6kyr. The extent of this beveling varies in space and time, such that different beveling episodes affect individual structures. Between times of planation, beveled surfaces are abandoned, incised, and deformed across the folds. In a challenge to models that link strath cutting and abandonment primarily to changes in river incision rates, we demonstrate that lateral erosion rates of antecedent streams crossing the folds have to vary by more than 1 order of magnitude to explain the creation of beveled platforms in the past and their incision at the present day. These variations do not appear to covary with climate variability and might be caused by relatively small (much less than an order of magnitude) changes in sediment or water fluxes. It remains uncertain in which settings variations in lateral bedrock erosion rates predominate over changes in vertical erosion rates. Therefore, when studying fluvial planation and strath terraces, variability of both lateral and vertical erosion rates should be considered.
In this study, we validate and compare elevation accuracy and geomorphic metrics of satellite-derived digital elevation models (DEMs) on the southern Central Andean Plateau. The plateau has an average elevation of 3.7 km and is characterized by diverse topography and relief, lack of vegetation, and clear skies that create ideal conditions for remote sensing. At 30m resolution, SRTM-C, ASTER GDEM2, stacked ASTER L1A stereopair DEM, ALOS World 3D, and TanDEM-X have been analyzed. The higher-resolution datasets include 12m TanDEM-X, 10m single-CoSSC TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X DEMs, and 5m ALOS World 3D. These DEMs are state of the art for optical (ASTER and ALOS) and radar (SRTM-C and TanDEM-X) spaceborne sensors. We assessed vertical accuracy by comparing standard deviations of the DEM elevation versus 307 509 differential GPS measurements across 4000m of elevation. For the 30m DEMs, the ASTER datasets had the highest vertical standard deviation at > 6.5 m, whereas the SRTM-C, ALOS World 3D, and TanDEM-X were all < 3.5 m. Higher-resolution DEMs generally had lower uncertainty, with both the 12m TanDEM-X and 5m ALOSWorld 3D having < 2m vertical standard deviation. Analysis of vertical uncertainty with respect to terrain elevation, slope, and aspect revealed the low uncertainty across these attributes for SRTM-C (30 m), TanDEM-X (12–30 m), and ALOS World 3D (5–30 m). Single-CoSSC TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X 10m DEMs and the 30m ASTER GDEM2 displayed slight aspect biases, which were removed in their stacked counterparts (TanDEM-X and ASTER Stack). Based on low vertical standard deviations and visual inspection alongside optical satellite data, we selected the 30m SRTM-C, 12–30m TanDEM-X, 10m single-CoSSC TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X, and 5m ALOS World 3D for geomorphic metric comparison in a 66 km2 catchment with a distinct river knickpoint. Consistent m=n values were found using chi plot channel profile analysis, regardless of DEM type and spatial resolution. Slope, curvature, and drainage area were calculated and plotting schemes were used to assess basin-wide differences in the hillslope-to-valley transition related to the knickpoint. While slope and hillslope length measurements vary little between datasets, curvature displays higher magnitude measurements with fining resolution. This is especially true for the optical 5m ALOS World 3D DEM, which demonstrated high-frequency noise in 2–8 pixel steps through a Fourier frequency analysis. The improvements in accurate space-radar DEMs (e.g., TanDEM-X) for geomorphometry are promising, but airborne or terrestrial data are still necessary for meter-scale analysis.
In this study, we validate and compare elevation accuracy and geomorphic metrics of satellite-derived digital elevation models (DEMs) on the southern Central Andean Plateau. The plateau has an average elevation of 3.7 km and is characterized by diverse topography and relief, lack of vegetation, and clear skies that create ideal conditions for remote sensing. At 30m resolution, SRTM-C, ASTER GDEM2, stacked ASTER L1A stereopair DEM, ALOS World 3D, and TanDEM-X have been analyzed. The higher-resolution datasets include 12m TanDEM-X, 10m single-CoSSC TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X DEMs, and 5m ALOS World 3D. These DEMs are state of the art for optical (ASTER and ALOS) and radar (SRTM-C and TanDEM-X) spaceborne sensors. We assessed vertical accuracy by comparing standard deviations of the DEM elevation versus 307 509 differential GPS measurements across 4000m of elevation. For the 30m DEMs, the ASTER datasets had the highest vertical standard deviation at > 6.5 m, whereas the SRTM-C, ALOS World 3D, and TanDEM-X were all < 3.5 m. Higher-resolution DEMs generally had lower uncertainty, with both the 12m TanDEM-X and 5m ALOSWorld 3D having < 2m vertical standard deviation. Analysis of vertical uncertainty with respect to terrain elevation, slope, and aspect revealed the low uncertainty across these attributes for SRTM-C (30 m), TanDEM-X (12–30 m), and ALOS World 3D (5–30 m). Single-CoSSC TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X 10m DEMs and the 30m ASTER GDEM2 displayed slight aspect biases, which were removed in their stacked counterparts (TanDEM-X and ASTER Stack). Based on low vertical standard deviations and visual inspection alongside optical satellite data, we selected the 30m SRTM-C, 12–30m TanDEM-X, 10m single-CoSSC TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X, and 5m ALOS World 3D for geomorphic metric comparison in a 66 km2 catchment with a distinct river knickpoint. Consistent m=n values were found using chi plot channel profile analysis, regardless of DEM type and spatial resolution. Slope, curvature, and drainage area were calculated and plotting schemes were used to assess basin-wide differences in the hillslope-to-valley transition related to the knickpoint. While slope and hillslope length measurements vary little between datasets, curvature displays higher magnitude measurements with fining resolution. This is especially true for the optical 5m ALOS World 3D DEM, which demonstrated high-frequency noise in 2–8 pixel steps through a Fourier frequency analysis. The improvements in accurate space-radar DEMs (e.g., TanDEM-X) for geomorphometry are promising, but airborne or terrestrial data are still necessary for meter-scale analysis.
In this study, we validate and compare elevation accuracy and geomorphic metrics of satellite-derived digital elevation models (DEMs) on the southern Central Andean Plateau. The plateau has an average elevation of 3.7 km and is characterized by diverse topography and relief, lack of vegetation, and clear skies that create ideal conditions for remote sensing. At 30m resolution, SRTM-C, ASTER GDEM2, stacked ASTER L1A stereopair DEM, ALOS World 3D, and TanDEM-X have been analyzed. The higher-resolution datasets include 12m TanDEM-X, 10m single-CoSSC TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X DEMs, and 5m ALOS World 3D. These DEMs are state of the art for optical (ASTER and ALOS) and radar (SRTM-C and TanDEM-X) spaceborne sensors. We assessed vertical accuracy by comparing standard deviations of the DEM elevation versus 307 509 differential GPS measurements across 4000m of elevation. For the 30m DEMs, the ASTER datasets had the highest vertical standard deviation at > 6.5 m, whereas the SRTM-C, ALOS World 3D, and TanDEM-X were all < 3.5 m. Higher-resolution DEMs generally had lower uncertainty, with both the 12m TanDEM-X and 5m ALOSWorld 3D having < 2m vertical standard deviation. Analysis of vertical uncertainty with respect to terrain elevation, slope, and aspect revealed the low uncertainty across these attributes for SRTM-C (30 m), TanDEM-X (12-30 m), and ALOS World 3D (5-30 m). Single-CoSSC TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X 10m DEMs and the 30m ASTER GDEM2 displayed slight aspect biases, which were removed in their stacked counterparts (TanDEM-X and ASTER Stack). Based on low vertical standard deviations and visual inspection alongside optical satellite data, we selected the 30m SRTM-C, 12-30m TanDEM-X, 10m single-CoSSC TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X, and 5m ALOS World 3D for geomorphic metric comparison in a 66 km2 catchment with a distinct river knickpoint. Consistent m = n values were found using chi plot channel profile analysis, regardless of DEM type and spatial resolution. Slope, curvature, and drainage area were calculated and plotting schemes were used to assess basin-wide differences in the hillslope-to-valley transition related to the knickpoint. While slope and hillslope length measurements vary little between datasets, curvature displays higher magnitude measurements with fining resolution. This is especially true for the optical 5m ALOS World 3D DEM, which demonstrated high-frequency noise in 2-8 pixel steps through a Fourier frequency analysis. The improvements in accurate space-radar DEMs (e. g., TanDEM-X) for geomorphometry are promising, but airborne or terrestrial data are still necessary for meter-scale analysis.
The aim of this paper is to investigate the ability of various site-condition proxies (SCPs) to reduce ground-motion aleatory variability and evaluate how SCPs capture nonlinearity site effects. The SCPs used here are time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the top 30 m (V-S30), the topographical slope (slope), the fundamental resonance frequency (f(0)) and the depth beyond which V-s exceeds 800 m/s (H800). We considered first the performance of each SCP taken alone and then the combined performance of the 6 SCP pairs [V-S30-f(0)], [V-S30-H-800], [f(0)-slope], [H-800-slope], [V-S30-slope] and [f(0)-H-800]. This analysis is performed using a neural network approach including a random effect applied on a KiK-net subset for derivation of ground-motion prediction equations setting the relationship between various ground-motion parameters such as peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and pseudo-spectral acceleration PSA (T), and Mw, RJB, focal depth and SCPs. While the choice of SCP is found to have almost no impact on the median groundmotion prediction, it does impact the level of aleatory uncertainty. VS30 is found to perform the best of single proxies at short periods (T < 0.6 s), while f(0) and H-800 perform better at longer periods; considering SCP pairs leads to significant improvements, with particular emphasis on [V-S30-H-800] and [f(0)-slope] pairs. The results also indicate significant nonlinearity on the site terms for soft sites and that the most relevant loading parameter for characterising nonlinear site response is the "stiff" spectral ordinate at the considered period.
Passive continental margins offer the unique opportunity to study the processes involved in continental extension and break-up. Within the LISPWAL (Llthospheric Structure of the Namibian continental Passive margin at the intersection with the Walvis Ridge from amphibious seismic investigations) project, combined on- and offshore seismic experiments were designed to characterize the Southern African passive margin at the Walvis Ridge in northern Namibia. In addition to extensive analysis of the crustal structures, we carried out seismic investigations targeting the velocity structure of the upper mantle in the landfall region of the Walvis Ridge with the Namibian coast. Upper mantle P-n travel time tomography from controlled source, amphibious seismic data was used to investigate the sub-Moho upper mantle seismic velocity. We succeeded in imaging upper mantle structures potentially associated with continental break-up and/or the Tristan da Cunha hotspot track. We found mostly coast-parallel sub-Moho velocity anomalies, interpreted as structures which were created during Gondwana break-up. (C)2016 Published by Elsevier B.V.
We present a high-resolution study of the upper mantle structure of Central Europe, including the western part of the East European Platform, based on S-receiver functions of 345 stations. A distinct contrast is found between Phanerozoic Europe and the East European Craton across the Trans-European Suture Zone. To the west, a pronounced velocity reduction with depth interpreted as lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB) is found at an average depth of 90 km. Beneath the craton, no strong and continuous LAB conversion is observed. Instead we find a distinct velocity reduction within the lithosphere, at 80-120 km depth. This mid-lithospheric discontinuity (MLD) is attributed to a compositional boundary between depleted and more fertile lithosphere created by late Proterozoic metasomatism. A potential LAB phase beneath the craton is very weak and varies in depth between 180 and 250 km, consistent with a reduced velocity contrast between the lower lithosphere and the asthenosphere. Within the Trans-European Suture Zone, lithospheric structure is characterized by strong heterogeneity. A dipping or step-wise increase to LAB depth of 150 km is imaged from Phanerozoic Europe to 20-22 degrees E, whereas no direct connection to the cratonic LAB or MLD to the east is apparent. At larger depths, a positive conversion associated with the lower boundary of the asthenosphere is imaged at 210-250 km depth beneath Phanerozoic Europe, continuing down to 300 km depth beneath the craton. Conversions from both 410 km and 660 km discontinuities are found at their nominal depth beneath Phanerozoic Europe, and the discontinuity at 410 km depth can also be traced into the craton. A potential negative conversion on top of the 410 km discontinuity found in migrated images is analyzed by modeling and attributed to interference with other converted phases.
Reductions in emissions have successfully led to a regional decline in atmospheric nitrogen depositions over the past 20 years. By analyzing long-term data from 110 mountainous streams draining into German drinking water reservoirs, nitrate concentrations indeed declined in the majority of catchments. Furthermore, our meta-analysis indicates that the declining nitrate levels are linked to the release of dissolved iron to streams likely due to a reductive dissolution of iron(III) minerals in riparian wetland soils. This dissolution process mobilized adsorbed compounds, such as phosphate, dissolved organic carbon and arsenic, resulting in concentration increases in the streams and higher inputs to receiving drinking water reservoirs. Reductive mobilization was most significant in catchments with stream nitrate concentrations < 6 mg L-1. Here, nitrate, as a competing electron acceptor, was too low in concentration to inhibit microbial iron(III) reduction. Consequently, observed trends were strongest in forested catchments, where nitrate concentrations were unaffected by agricultural and urban sources and which were therefore sensitive to reductions of atmospheric nitrogen depositions. We conclude that there is strong evidence that the decline in nitrogen deposition toward pre-industrial conditions lowers the redox buffer in riparian soils, destabilizing formerly fixed problematic compounds, and results in serious implications for water quality.
Trends in precipitation over Germany and the Rhine basin related to changes in weather patterns
(2017)
Precipitation as the central meteorological feature for agriculture, water security, and human well-being amongst others, has gained special attention ever since. Lack of precipitation may have devastating effects such as crop failure and water scarcity. Abundance of precipitation, on the other hand, may as well result in hazardous events such as flooding and again crop failure. Thus, great effort has been spent on tracking changes in precipitation and relating them to underlying processes. Particularly in the face of global warming and given the link between temperature and atmospheric water holding capacity, research is needed to understand the effect of climate change on precipitation.
The present work aims at understanding past changes in precipitation and other meteorological variables. Trends were detected for various time periods and related to associated changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation. The results derived in this thesis may be used as the foundation for attributing changes in floods to climate change. Assumptions needed for the downscaling of large-scale circulation model output to local climate stations are tested and verified here.
In a first step, changes in precipitation over Germany were detected, focussing not only on precipitation totals, but also on properties of the statistical distribution, transition probabilities as a measure for wet/dry spells, and extreme precipitation events.
Shifting the spatial focus to the Rhine catchment as one of the major water lifelines of Europe and the largest river basin in Germany, detected trends in precipitation and other meteorological variables were analysed in relation to states of an ``optimal'' weather pattern classification. The weather pattern classification was developed seeking the best skill in explaining the variance of local climate variables.
The last question addressed whether observed changes in local climate variables are attributable to changes in the frequency of weather patterns or rather to changes within the patterns itself. A common assumption for a downscaling approach using weather patterns and a stochastic weather generator is that climate change is expressed only as a changed occurrence of patterns with the pattern properties remaining constant. This assumption was validated and the ability of the latest generation of general circulation models to reproduce the weather patterns was evaluated.
% Paper 1
Precipitation changes in Germany in the period 1951-2006 can be summarised briefly as negative in summer and positive in all other seasons. Different precipitation characteristics confirm the trends in total precipitation: while winter mean and extreme precipitation have increased, wet spells tend to be longer as well (expressed as increased probability for a wet day followed by another wet day). For summer the opposite was observed: reduced total precipitation, supported by decreasing mean and extreme precipitation and reflected in an increasing length of dry spells.
Apart from this general summary for the whole of Germany, the spatial distribution within the country is much more differentiated. Increases in winter precipitation are most pronounced in the north-west and south-east of Germany, while precipitation increases are highest in the west for spring and in the south for autumn. Decreasing summer precipitation was observed in most regions of Germany, with particular focus on the south and west.
The seasonal picture, however, was again differently represented in the contributing months, e.g.\ increasing autumn precipitation in the south of Germany is formed by strong trends in the south-west in October and in the south-east in November. These results emphasise the high spatial and temporal organisation of precipitation changes.
% Paper 2
The next step towards attributing precipitation trends to changes in large-scale atmospheric patterns was the derivation of a weather pattern classification that sufficiently stratifies the local climate variables under investigation. Focussing on temperature, radiation, and humidity in addition to precipitation, a classification based on mean sea level pressure, near-surface temperature, and specific humidity was found to have the best skill in explaining the variance of the local variables. A rather high number of 40 patterns was selected, allowing typical pressure patterns being assigned to specific seasons by the associated temperature patterns. While the skill in explaining precipitation variance is rather low, better skill was achieved for radiation and, of course, temperature.
Most of the recent GCMs from the CMIP5 ensemble were found to reproduce these weather patterns sufficiently well in terms of frequency, seasonality, and persistence.
% Paper 3
Finally, the weather patterns were analysed for trends in pattern frequency, seasonality, persistence, and trends in pattern-specific precipitation and temperature. To overcome uncertainties in trend detection resulting from the selected time period, all possible periods in 1901-2010 with a minimum length of 31 years were considered. Thus, the assumption of a constant link between patterns and local weather was tested rigorously. This assumption was found to hold true only partly. While changes in temperature are mainly attributable to changes in pattern frequency, for precipitation a substantial amount of change was detected within individual patterns.
Magnitude and even sign of trends depend highly on the selected time period. The frequency of certain patterns is related to the long-term variability of large-scale circulation modes.
Changes in precipitation were found to be heterogeneous not only in space, but also in time - statements on trends are only valid for the specific time period under investigation. While some part of the trends can be attributed to changes in the large-scale circulation, distinct changes were found within single weather patterns as well.
The results emphasise the need to analyse multiple periods for thorough trend detection wherever possible and add some note of caution to the application of downscaling approaches based on weather patterns, as they might misinterpret the effect of climate change due to neglecting within-type trends.
Reliable flood risk analyses, including the estimation of damage, are an important prerequisite for efficient risk management. However, not much is known about flood damage processes affecting companies. Thus, we conduct a flood damage assessment of companies in Germany with regard to two aspects. First, we identify relevant damage-influencing variables. Second, we assess the prediction performance of the developed damage models with respect to the gain by using an increasing amount of training data and a sector-specific evaluation of the data. Random forests are trained with data from two postevent surveys after flood events occurring in the years 2002 and 2013. For a sector-specific consideration, the data set is split into four subsets corresponding to the manufacturing, commercial, financial, and service sectors. Further, separate models are derived for three different company assets: buildings, equipment, and goods and stock. Calculated variable importance values reveal different variable sets relevant for the damage estimation, indicating significant differences in the damage process for various company sectors and assets. With an increasing number of data used to build the models, prediction errors decrease. Yet the effect is rather small and seems to saturate for a data set size of several hundred observations. In contrast, the prediction improvement achieved by a sector-specific consideration is more distinct, especially for damage to equipment and goods and stock. Consequently, sector-specific data acquisition and a consideration of sector-specific company characteristics in future flood damage assessments is expected to improve the model performance more than a mere increase in data.
Erosion processes, aggravated by human activity, have a large impact on the spatial variation of soil and topographic properties. Knowledge of the topography prior to human-induced erosion (paleotopography) in naturally stable landscapes is valuable for identifying vulnerable landscape positions and is required as starting point for erosion modelling exercises. However, developing accurate reconstructions of paleotopography provide a major challenge for geomorphologists. Here, we present a set of paleotopographies for a closed kettle hole catchment in north-east Germany (4 ha), obtained through different reconstruction approaches. Current soil and colluvium thickness, estimated from a dataset of 264 soil descriptions using Ordinary Kriging, were used as input for a mass balance, or were compared with a set of undisturbed soil thicknesses to estimate the amount of erosion. The performance of the different approaches was assessed with cross-validation and the count of mispredicted eroded, depositional or stable landscape positions. The paleotopographic reconstruction approach based on the average thickness of undisturbed soils in the study area showed the best performance. This thickness (1.00 m) is comparable to the average undisturbed soil thickness in the region and in line with global correlations of soil thickness as a function of rainfall and initial CaCO3 content. The performance of the different approaches depended more on mispredictions of landscape position due to the assumption of a spatially constant initial soil depth than on small variations in this depth. To conclude, we mention several methodological and practical points of attention for future topography reconstruction studies, concerning data quality and availability, spatial configuration of data and other processes affecting topography. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Research suggests that providing weather forecast end users with additional information about the forecast uncertainty of a possible event can enhance the preparation of mitigation measures. But not all users have the same threshold for taking action. This paper focuses on the question of whether there are influencing factors that determine decision thresholds for numerical weather forecast information beginning at which the general public would start to take protective action. In spring 2014, 1342 residents of Berlin, Germany participated in a survey. Questions related to the following topics: perception of and prior experience with severe weather, trustworthiness of forecasters and confidence in weather forecasts, and sociodemographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Within the questionnaire a scenario was created in order to determine individual decision thresholds and see whether subgroups of the sample lead to different thresholds.
Voluminous magmatism during the South Atlantic opening has been considered as a classical example for plume related continental breakup. We present a study of the crustal structure around Walvis Ridge, near the intersection with the African margin. Two wide-angle seismic profiles were acquired. One is oriented NNW–SSE, following the continent–ocean transition and crossing Walvis Ridge. A second amphibious profile runs NW–SE from the Angola Basin into continental Namibia. At the continent–ocean boundary (COB) the mafic crust beneath Walvis Ridge is up to 33 km thick, with a pronounced high-velocity lower crustal body. Towards the south there is a smooth transition to 20–25 km thick crust underlying the COB in the Walvis Basin, with a similar velocity structure, indicating a gabbroic lower crust with associated cumulates at the base. The northern boundary of Walvis Ridge towards the Angola Basin shows a sudden change to oceanic crust only 4–6 km thick, coincident with the projection of the Florianopolis Fracture Zone, one of the most prominent tectonic features of the South Atlantic ocean basin. In the amphibious profile the COB is defined by a sharp transition from oceanic to rifted continental crust, with a magmatic overprint landward of the intersection of Walvis Ridge with the Namibian margin. The continental crust beneath the Congo Craton is 40 km thick, shoaling to 35 km further SE. The velocity models show that massive high-velocity gabbroic intrusives are restricted to a narrow zone directly underneath Walvis Ridge and the COB in the south. This distribution of rift-related magmatism is not easily reconciled with models of continental breakup following the establishment of a large, axially symmetric plume in the Earth's mantle. Rift-related lithospheric stretching and associated transform faulting play an overriding role in locating magmatism, dividing the margin in a magma-dominated southern and an essentially amagmatic northern segment.
One of the major challenges in understanding the evolution of our own species is identifying the role climate change has played in the evolution of hominin species. To clarify the influence of climate, we need long and continuous high-resolution paleoclimate records, preferably obtained from hominin-bearing sediments, that are well-dated by tephro- and magnetostratigraphy and other methods. This is hindered, however, by the fact that fossil-bearing outcrop sediments are often discontinuous, and subject to weathering, which may lead to oxidation and remagnetization. To obtain fresh, unweathered sediments, the Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) collected a ∼216-meter core (WTK13) in 2013 from Early Pleistocene Paleolake Lorenyang deposits in the western Turkana Basin (Kenya). Here, we present the magnetostratigraphy of the WTK13 core, providing a first age model for upcoming HSPDP paleoclimate and paleoenvrionmental studies on the core sediments. Rock magnetic analyses reveal the presence of iron sulfides carrying the remanent magnetizations. To recover polarity orientation from the near-equatorial WTK13 core drilled at 5°N, we developed and successfully applied two independent drill-core reorientation methods taking advantage of (1) the sedimentary fabric as expressed in the Anisotropy of Magnetic Susceptibility (AMS) and (2) the occurrence of a viscous component oriented in the present day field. The reoriented directions reveal a normal to reversed polarity reversal identified as the top of the Olduvai Subchron. From this excellent record, we find no evidence for the ‘Vrica Subchron’ previously reported in the area. We suggest that outcrop-based interpretations supporting the presence of the Vrica Subchron have been affected by the oxidation of iron sulfides initially present in the sediments -as evident in the core record- and by subsequent remagnetization. We discuss the implications of the observed geomagnetic record for human evolution studies.
Along a subduction zone, great megathrust earthquakes recur either after long seismic gaps lasting several decades to centuries or over much shorter periods lasting hours to a few years when cascading successions of earthquakes rupture nearby segments of the fault. We analyze a decade of continuous Global Positioning System observations along the South American continent to estimate changes in deformation rates between the 2010 Maule (M8.8) and 2015 Illapel (M8.3) Chilean earthquakes. We find that surface velocities increased after the 2010 earthquake, in response to continental-scale viscoelastic mantle relaxation and to regional-scale increased degree of interplate locking. We propose that increased locking occurs transiently during a super-interseismic phase in segments adjacent to a megathrust rupture, responding to bending of both plates caused by coseismic slip and subsequent afterslip. Enhanced strain rates during a super-interseismic phase may therefore bring a megathrust segment closer to failure and possibly triggered the 2015 event.
The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to simulate the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation over central Asia over the year April 2005 through March 2006. Experiments are performed at 6.7 km horizontal grid spacing, with an emphasis on winter and summer precipitation over the Himalaya. The model and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission show a similar inter-seasonal cycle of precipitation, from extratropical cyclones to monsoon precipitation, with agreement also in the diurnal cycle of monsoon precipitation. In winter months, WRF compares better in timeseries of daily precipitation to stations below than above 3-km elevation, likely due to inferior measurement of snow than rain by the stations, highlighting the need for reliable snowfall measurements at high elevations in winter. In summer months, the nocturnal precipitation cycle in the foothills and valleys of the Himalaya is captured by this 6.7-km WRF simulation, while coarser simulations with convective parameterization show near zero nocturnal precipitation. In winter months, higher resolution is less important, serving only to slightly increase precipitation magnitudes due to steeper slopes. However, even in the 6.7-km simulation, afternoon precipitation is overestimated at high elevations, which can be reduced by even higher-resolution (2.2-km) simulations. These results indicate that WRF provides skillful simulations of precipitation relevant for studies of water resources over the complex terrain in the Himalaya.
Human development has far-reaching impacts on the surface of the globe. The transformation of natural land cover occurs in different forms, and urban growth is one of the most eminent transformative processes. We analyze global land cover data and extract cities as defined by maximally connected urban clusters. The analysis of the city size distribution for all cities on the globe confirms Zipf’s law. Moreover, by investigating the percolation properties of the clustering of urban areas we assess the closeness to criticality for various countries. At the critical thresholds, the urban land cover of the countries undergoes a transition from separated clusters to a gigantic component on the country scale. We study the Zipf-exponents as a function of the closeness to percolation and find a systematic dependence, which could be the reason for deviating exponents reported in the literature. Moreover, we investigate the average size of the clusters as a function of the proximity to percolation and find country specific behavior. By relating the standard deviation and the average of cluster sizes—analogous to Taylor’s law—we suggest an alternative way to identify the percolation transition. We calculate spatial correlations of the urban land cover and find long-range correlations. Finally, by relating the areas of cities with population figures we address the global aspect of the allometry of cities, finding an exponent δ ≈ 0.85, i.e., large cities have lower densities.
Urban climate is determined by a variety of factors, whose knowledge can help to attenuate heat stress in the context of ongoing urbanization and climate change. We study the influence of city size and urban form on the Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon in Europe and find a complex interplay between UHI intensity and city size, fractality, and anisometry. Due to correlations among these urban factors, interactions in the multi-linear regression need to be taken into account. We find that among the largest 5,000 cities, the UHI intensity increases with the logarithm of the city size and with the fractal dimension, but decreases with the logarithm of the anisometry. Typically, the size has the strongest influence, followed by the compactness, and the smallest is the influence of the degree to which the cities stretch. Accordingly, from the point of view of UHI alleviation, small, disperse, and stretched cities are preferable. However, such recommendations need to be balanced against e.g. positive agglomeration effects of large cities. Therefore, trade-offs must be made regarding local and global aims.
Turkey has been severely affected by many natural hazards, in particular earthquakes and floods. Especially over the last two decades, these natural hazards have caused enormous human and economic damage. Although there is a large body of literature on earthquake hazards and risks in Turkey, comparatively little is known about flood hazards and risks. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the severity of flooding in comparison with other natural hazards in Turkey and to analyse the flood patterns by providing an overview of the temporal and spatial distribution of flood losses. These will act as a metric for the societal and economic impacts of flood hazards in Turkey. For this purpose, Turkey Disaster Database (TABB) was used for the years 1960-2014. As input for more detailed event analyses, the most severe flood events in Turkey for the same time interval will also be retrieved. Sufficiency of the TABB database to achieve the main aim of the study in terms of data quality and accuracy was also discussed. The TABB database was analysed and reviewed through comparison, mainly with the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), the Global Active Archive of Large Flood Events-Dartmouth Flood Observatory database, news archives and the scientific literature, with a focus on listing the most severe flood event. The comparative review of these data sources reveals big mismatches in the flood data, i.e. the reported number of events, number of affected people and economic loss all differ dramatically. Owing to the fact that the TABB is the only disaster loss database for Turkey, it is important to explore the reasons for the mismatches between TABB and the other sources with regard to aspects of accuracy and data quality. Therefore, biases and fallacies in the TABB loss data are also discussed. The comparative TABB database analyses show that large mismatches between global and national databases can occur. Current global and national databases for monitoring losses from national hazards suffer from a number of limitations, which in turn could lead to misinterpretations of the loss data. Since loss data collection is gaining more and more attention, e.g. in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, this study offers a framework for developing guidelines for the Turkey Disaster Database (TABB), implications on how to standardize national loss databases and implement across the other hazard events in Turkey.
BACKGROUND: We evaluated the potential of cholecalciferol as an enhancer of the first-generation anticoagulant coumatetralyl in the Westphalia anticoagulant-resistant strain of the Norway rat (Rattus norvegicus Berkenhout), characterised by the Tyr139Cys polymorphism on the VKOR enzyme. Because today only the most potent, but also most persistent anticoagulant rodenticides of the second generation remain available to control this strain, new rodenticide solutions are required. RESULTS: Feeding trials in the laboratory confirmed a significant level of efficacy, which was corroborated by field trials in the Munsterland resistance area. After frequency and level of resistance were assessed by blood clotting response tests, field trials were conducted with bait containing coumatetralyl at 375 mg kg(-1) and cholecalciferol at 50 mg kg(-1) or 100 mg kg(-1). Control success was 94% when a large rat infestation comprising 42% resistant animals was treated. Another field trial applying the combination to a rat population that had survived a preceding treatment with bromadiolone resulted in a 99.5% control success according to the first census day, but with some increase in rat activity during subsequent census days. CONCLUSION: The combination of coumatetralyl and cholecalciferol is a promising alternative approach to the most potent second-generation anticoagulants in resistance management, particularly in respect of environmental risks, such as secondary poisoning. (C) 2016 Society of Chemical Industry
The opening of the South Atlantic is a classical example for a plume related continental breakup. Flood basalts are present on both conjugate margins as well as aseismic ridges connecting them with the current plume location at Tristan da Cunha. To determine the effect of the proposed plume head on the continental crust, we acquired wide-angle seismic data at the junction of the Walvis Ridge with the African continent and modelled the P-wave velocity structure in a forward approach. The profile extends 430 km along the ridge and continues onshore to a length of 720 km. Crustal velocities beneath the Walvis Ridge vary between 5.5 km/s and 7.0 km/s, a typical range for oceanic crust. The crustal thickness of 22 km, however, is approximately three times larger than of normal oceanic crust. The continent-ocean transition is characterized by 30 km thick crust with strong lateral velocity variations in the upper crust and a high-velocity lower crust (HVLC), where velocities reach up to 7.5 km/s. The HVLC is 100 to 130 km wider at the Walvis Ridge than it is farther south, and impinges onto the continental crust of the Kaoko fold belt. Such high seismic velocities indicate Mg-rich igneous material intruded into the continental crust during the initial rifting stage. However, the remaining continental crust seems unaffected by intrusions and the root of the 40 km-thick crust of the Kaoko belt is not thermally abraded. We conclude that the plume head did not modify the continental crust on a large scale, but caused rather local effects. Thus, it seems unlikely that a plume drove or initiated the breakup process. We further propose that the plume already existed underneath the continent prior to the breakup, and ponded melt erupted at emerging rift structures providing the magma for continental flood basalts. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Transitions between forest and savannah vegetation types in fossil pollen records are often poorly understood due to over-production by taxa such as Poaceae and a lack of modern pollen-vegetation studies. Here, modern pollen assemblages from within a forest-savannah transition in West Africa are presented and compared, their characteristic taxa discussed, and implications for the fossil record considered. Fifteen artificial pollen traps were deployed for 1 year, to collect pollen rain from three vegetation plots within the forest-savannah transition in Ghana. High percentages of Poaceae and Melastomataceae/Combretaceae were recorded in all three plots. Erythrophleum suaveolens characterised the forest plot, Manilkara obovata the transition plot and Terminalia the savannah plot. The results indicate that Poaceae pollen influx rates provide the best representation of the forest-savannah gradient, and that a Poaceae abundance of >40% should be considered as indicative of savannah-type vegetation in the fossil record.
The Eastern Sierras Pampeanas are mainly composed of Neoproterozoic-early Palaeozoic metamorphic complexes whose protoliths were sedimentary sequences deposited along the western margin of Gondwana. South of the Sierra de Aconquija, Eastern Sierras Pampeanas, a voluminous metamorphic complex crops out. It is mainly composed of schists, gneisses, marbles, calk-silicate schists, thin layers of amphibolites intercalated with the marbles and granitic veins. The new data correlate the Sierra de Aconquija with others metamorphic units that crop out to the south, at the middle portion of the Sierra de Ancasti. Bulk rock composition reflects originally shales, iron rich shales, wackes, minor litharenites and impure limestones as its protoliths. Moreover, comparisons with the northern Sierra de Aconquija and from La Majada (Sierra de Ancasti) show similar composition. Amphibolites have a basaltic precursor, like those from the La Majada (Sierra de Ancasti) ones. The analyzed metamorphic sequence reflects low to moderate weathering conditions in the sediments source environment and their chemical composition would be mainly controlled by the tectonic setting of the sedimentary basin rather than by the secondary sorting and reworking of older deposits. The sediments composition reveal relatively low maturity, nevertheless the Fe - shale and the litharenite show a tendency of minor maturity among them. The source is related to an acid one for the litharenite protolith and a more basic to intermediate for the other rocks, suggesting a main derivation from intermediate to felsic orogen. The source of the Fe shales may be related to and admixture of the sediments with basic components. Overall the composition point to an upper continental crust as the dominant sediment source for most of the metasedimentary rocks. The protolith of the amphibolites have basic precursors, related to an evolving back-arc basin. The chemical data in combination with the specific sediment association (wackes, shales, Fe-shales and minor litharenites) are characteristic for turbidity currents deposits along tectonically active region. They are also commonly associated with calcareous clays (marbles), commonly observed in the evolution of basins with slope and shelf derived carbonate turbidites. The amphibolites members are probably derived from lava-flows synchronous with the sedimentation during the basin evolution. The basin was controlled by a continental island arc possible evolving to a back-arc setting, as indicated for the mixed nature of the inferred source. The metasedimentary sequence from the Cuesta de La Chilca have petrographic, structural and strong chemical similarities, building a north-south striking belt from the north of the Sierra de Aconquija and to the south along the Sierra de Ancasti (La Majada area). The observed similarities allow to present this portion of the Eastern Sierras Pampeanas as a crustal block that records the sedimentary sequences developed along the geodynamic context of the southwestern margin of Gondwana during the Neoproterozoic and Early Palaeozoic. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The North Tabriz Fault is seismologically an active fault with current right lateral strike-slip movements. Restricted mafic to intermediate Fate Cretaceous igneous rocks are exposed along the North Tabriz Fault. Whole rock and clinopyroxene phenocrysts geochemistry were studied in order to characterize the petrogenesis of these mafic rocks and their possible relation to an oceanic crust. The results indicate a tholeiitic parental magma that formed in an evolved mid-ocean ridge tectonic setting similar to the Iceland mid-Atlantic ridge basalts. The ocean floor basalt characteristics give evidence of an oceanic crust along the North Tabriz Fault. Therefore, the trend of the North Tabriz Fault more likely marks a suture zone related to the closure of a branch of the Neo-Tethys Ocean in the NW Iran. This fault, in addition to the Caucasus and Zagros suture zones, compensates an important part of the convergence between the Arabian and Eurasian plates resulting from the Red Sea divergence. It is concluded that the North Tabriz Fault appears to be possible southeastern continuation of the North Anatolian suture zone.
The Kenya rift revisited
(2017)
We present three-dimensional (3-D) models that describe the present-day thermal and rheological state of the lithosphere of the greater Kenya rift region aiming at a better understanding of the rift evolution, with a particular focus on plume-lithosphere interactions. The key methodology applied is the 3-D integration of diverse geological and geophysical observations using gravity modelling. Accordingly, the resulting lithospheric-scale 3-D density model is consistent with (i) reviewed descriptions of lithological variations in the sedimentary and volcanic cover, (ii) known trends in crust and mantle seismic velocities as revealed by seismic and seismological data and (iii) the observed gravity field. This data-based model is the first to image a 3-D density configuration of the crystalline crust for the entire region of Kenya and northern Tanzania. An upper and a basal crustal layer are differentiated, each composed of several domains of different average densities. We interpret these domains to trace back to the Precambrian terrane amalgamation associated with the East African Orogeny and to magmatic processes during Mesozoic and Cenozoic rifting phases. In combination with seismic velocities, the densities of these crustal domains indicate compositional differences. The derived lithological trends have been used to parameterise steady-state thermal and rheological models. These models indicate that crustal and mantle temperatures decrease from the Kenya rift in the west to eastern Kenya, while the integrated strength of the lithosphere increases. Thereby, the detailed strength configuration appears strongly controlled by the complex inherited crustal structure, which may have been decisive for the onset, localisation and propagation of rifting.
Birds migrating across the Himalayan region fly over the highest peaks in the world, facing immense physiological and climatic challenges. The authors show the different strategies used by birds to cope with these challenges. Many wetland avian species are seen in the high-altitude lakes of the Himalayas and the adjoining Tibetan Plateau, such as Bar-Headed Geese. Ringing programmes have generated information about origins and destinations, and this book is the first to present information on the bird's exact migratory paths. Capitalising on knowledge generated through satellite telemetry, the authors describe the migratory routes of a multitude of birds flying over or skirting the Himalayas. The myriad of threats to migratory birds and the wetland system in the Central Asian Flyway are discussed, with ways to mitigate them. This volume will inform and persuade policy-makers and conservation practitioners to take appropriate measures for the long-term survival of this unique migration
Pollination is a key ecosystem service. Pollinators, however, are in decline and their service is increasingly threatened. The decline is driven by several factors, most of which are related to agricultural management. However, the complexity of the landscape system, consisting of both cropped and non cropped areas, makes it difficult to address or even quantify the role of farming practices in pollinator abundance. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to improve our understanding of the relationships between pollinator abundance and their habitat use. We intend to identify and quantify the driving environmental factors that determine pollinator abundance in agricultural landscapes on the crop and landscape scale. These information helps us to design algorithms that can be used as a basis for predicting pollinator abundance on agricultural fields. To integrate varying environmental conditions data sampling was performed on farms in three different regions in Germany. Pollinators were classified into different groups with three aggregation levels. We observed crop parameters as well as landscape parameters in the areas surrounding fields in addition to temporal aspects. Generalized linear models (GLMs) were then calculated. Our results showed that both crop and landscape parameters affect pollinator abundance on agricultural fields. However, the explanatory power of the included parameters varied strongly among the particular pollinator groups and between aggregation levels. Furthermore, differentiation between species groups improves the explanatory power compared to models that are more aggregated. We also found that the temporal match between main activity periods of the particular pollinator groups and resource supply by the crop species is a key factor when analysing pollinator abundance. In conclusion, we demonstrated that the assessment and support of pollination services should be carried out with regard to individual pollinator groups. When studying pollinator abundance, the crop as well as the landscape scale should be addressed. A range of different habitat requirements and different activity periods of the pollinator groups must be covered to maintain pollination services, and therefore both diverse landscapes and diverse crop rotations are of crucial importance. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Preceramic human skeletal remains preserved in submerged caves near Tulum in the Mexican state of Quintana Roo, Mexico, reveal conflicting results regarding C-14 dating. Here we use U-series techniques for dating a stalagmite overgrowing the pelvis of a human skeleton discovered in the submerged Chan Hol cave. The oldest closed system U/Th age comes from around 21 mm above the pelvis defining the terminus ante quem for the pelvis to 11311 +/- 370 y BP. However, the skeleton might be considerable older, probably as old as 13 ky BP as indicated by the speleothem stable isotope data. The Chan Hol individual confirms a late Pleistocene settling of Mesoamerica and represents one of the oldest human osteological remains in America.
Silicon stable isotopes have emerged as a powerful proxy to investigate weathering because Si uptake from solution by secondary minerals or by the vegetation causes significant shifts in the isotope composition. In this study, we determined the Si isotope compositions of the principle Si pools within two small catchments located on sandstone and paragneiss, respectively, in the temperate Black Forest (Germany). At both settings, clay formation is dominated by mineral transformation preserving largely the signature of parental minerals with delta Si-30 values of around -0.7%. Bulk soils rich in primary minerals are similar to bulk parental material with delta Si-30 values close to -0.4%. Topsoils are partly different because organic matter degradation has promoted intense weathering leading to delta Si-30 values as low as -1.0%. Water samples expose highly dynamic weathering processes in the soil zone: 1) after spring snowmelt, increased release of DOC and high water fluxes trigger clay mineral dissolution which leads to delta Si-30 values down to -0.7% and 2) in course of the summer, Si uptake by the vegetation and secondary mineral formation drives dissolved Si to typical positive delta Si-30 values up to 1.1%. Groundwater with delta Si-30 values of around 0.4% records steady processes in bedrock reflecting plagioclase weathering together with kaolinite precipitation. An isotope mass balance approach reveals incongruent weathering conditions where denudation of Si is largely driven by physical erosion. Erosion of phytoliths contributes 3 to 21% to the total Si export flux, which is in the same order as the dissolved Si flux. These results elucidate the Si dynamics during weathering on catchments underlain of sedimentary origin, prevailing on the Earth surface and provide therefore valuable information to interpret the isotope signature of large river systems.
The Chelyabinsk meteorite
(2017)
We present results of petrographic, mineralogical, and chemical investigations of three Chelyabinsk meteorite fragments. Three distinct lithologies were identified: light S3LL5, dark S4-S5LL5 material, and opaque fine-grained former impact melt. Olivine-spinel thermometry revealed an equilibration temperature of 703 +/- 23 degrees C for the light lithology. All plagioclase seems to be secondary, showing neither shock-induced fractures nor sulfide-metal veinlets. Feldspathic glass can be observed showing features of extensive melting and, in the dark lithology, as maskelynite, lacking melt features and retaining grain boundaries of former plagioclase. Olivine of the dark lithology shows planar deformation features. Impact melt is dominated by Mg-rich olivine and resembles whole-rock melt. Melt veins (<2mm) are connected to narrower veinlets. Melt vein textures are similar to pegmatite textures showing chilled margins, a zone of inward-grown elongated crystals and central vugs, suggesting crystallization from supercooled melt. Sulfide-metal droplets indicate liquid immiscibility of both silicate and sulfide as well as sulfide and metal melts. Impact melting may have been an important factor for differentiation of primitive planetary bodies. Graphite associated with micrometer-sized melt inclusions in primary olivine was detected by Raman mapping. Carbon isotopic studies of graphite could be applied to test a possible presolar origin.
Information on the contemporary in-situ stress state of the earth’s crust is essential for geotechnical applications and physics-based seismic hazard assessment. Yet, stress data records for a data point are incomplete and their availability is usually not dense enough to allow conclusive statements. This demands a thorough examination of the in-situ stress field which is achieved by 3D geomechanicalnumerical models. However, the models spatial resolution is limited and the resulting local stress state is subject to large uncertainties that confine the significance of the findings. In addition, temporal variations of the in-situ stress field are naturally or anthropogenically induced. In my thesis I address these challenges in three manuscripts that investigate (1) the current crustal stress field orientation, (2) the 3D geomechanical-numerical modelling of the in-situ stress state, and (3) the phenomenon of injection induced temporal stress tensor rotations. In the first manuscript I present the first comprehensive stress data compilation of Iceland with 495 data records. Therefore, I analysed image logs from 57 boreholes in Iceland for indicators of the orientation of the maximum horizontal stress component. The study is the first stress survey from different kinds of stress indicators in a geologically very young and tectonically active area of an onshore spreading ridge. It reveals a distinct stress field with a depth independent stress orientation even very close to the spreading centre. In the second manuscript I present a calibrated 3D geomechanical-numerical modelling approach of the in-situ stress state of the Bavarian Molasse Basin that investigates the regional (70x70x10km³) and local (10x10x10km³) stress state. To link these two models I develop a multi-stage modelling approach that provides a reliable and efficient method to derive from the larger scale model initial and boundary conditions for the smaller scale model. Furthermore, I quantify the uncertainties in the models results which are inherent to geomechanical-numerical modelling in general and the multi-stage approach in particular. I show that the significance of the models results is mainly reduced due to the uncertainties in the material properties and the low number of available stress magnitude data records for calibration. In the third manuscript I investigate the phenomenon of injection induced temporal stress tensor rotation and its controlling factors. I conduct a sensitivity study with a 3D generic thermo-hydro-mechanical model. I show that the key control factors for the stress tensor rotation are the permeability as the decisive factor, the injection rate, and the initial differential stress. In particular for enhanced geothermal systems with a low permeability large rotations of the stress tensor are indicated. According to these findings the estimation of the initial differential stress in a reservoir is possible provided the permeability is known and the angle of stress rotation is observed. I propose that the stress tensor rotations can be a key factor in terms of the potential for induced seismicity on pre-existing faults due to the reorientation of the stress field that changes the optimal orientation of faults.
Testing socio-cultural valuation methods of ecosystem services to explain land use preferences
(2017)
Socio-cultural valuation still emerges as a methodological field in ecosystem service (ES) research and until now lacks consistent formalisation and balanced application in ES assessments. In this study, we examine the explanatory value of ES values for land use preferences. We use 563 responses to a survey about the Pentland Hills regional park in Scotland. Specifically, we aim to (1) identify clusters of land use preferences by using a novel visualisation tool, (2) test if socio-cultural values of ESs or (3) user characteristics are linked with land use preferences, and (4) determine whether both socio-cultural values of ESs and user characteristics can predict land use preferences. Our results suggest that there are five groups of people with different land use preferences, ranging from forest and nature enthusiasts to traditionalists, multi-functionalists and recreation seekers. Rating and weighting of ESs and user characteristics were associated with different clusters. Neither socio-cultural values nor user characteristics were suitable predictors for land use preferences. While several studies have explored land use preferences by identifying socio-cultural values in the past, our findings imply that in this case study ES values inform about general perceptions but do not replace the assessment of land use preferences. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license.
Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs) are among the most active landforms in the Arctic; their number has increased significantly over the past decades. While processes initiating discrete RTSs are well identified, the major terrain controls on the development of coastal RTSs at a regional scale are not yet defined. Our research reveals the main geomorphic factors that determine the development of RTSs along a 238km segment of the Yukon Coast, Canada. We (1) show the current extent of RTSs, (2) ascertain the factors controlling their activity and initiation, and (3) explain the spatial differences in the density and areal coverage of RTSs. We mapped and classified 287 RTSs using high-resolution satellite images acquired in 2011. We highlighted the main terrain controls over their development using univariate regression trees model. Coastal geomorphology influenced both the activity and initiation of RTSs: active RTSs and RTSs initiated after 1972 occurred primarily on terrains with slope angles greater than 3.9 degrees and 5.9 degrees, respectively. The density and areal coverage of RTSs were constrained by the volume and thickness of massive ice bodies. Differences in rates of coastal change along the coast did not affect the model. We infer that rates of coastal change averaged over a 39year period are unable to reflect the complex relationship between RTSs and coastline dynamics. We emphasize the need for large-scale studies of RTSs to evaluate their impact on the ecosystem and to measure their contribution to the global carbon budget. Plain Language Summary Retrogressive thaw slumps, henceforth slumps are a type of landslides that occur when permafrost thaws. Slumps are active landforms: they develop quickly and extend over several hectares. Satellite imagery allows to map such slumps over large areas. Our research shows where slumps develop along a 238 km segment of the Yukon Coast in Canada and explains which environments are most suitable for slump occurrence. We found that active and newly developed slumps were triggered where coastal slopes were greater than 3.9 degrees and 5.9 degrees, respectively. We explain that coastal erosion influences the development of slumps by modifying coastal slopes. We found that the highest density of slumps as well as the largest slumps occurred on terrains with high amounts of ice bodies in the ground. This study provides tools to better identify areas in the Arctic that are prone to slump development.
Understanding the evolution of continental deformation zones relies on quantifying spatial and temporal changes in deformation rates of tectonic structures. Along the eastern boundary of the Pamir-Tian Shan collision zone, we constrain secular variations of rock uplift rates for a series of five Quaternary detachment- and fault-related folds from their initiation to the modern day. When combined with GPS data, decomposition of interferometric synthetic aperture radar time series constrains the spatial pattern of surface and rock uplift on the folds deforming at decadal rates of 1-5mm/yr. These data confirm the previously proposed basinward propagation of structures during the Quaternary. By fitting our geodetic rates and previously published geologic uplift rates with piecewise linear functions, we find that gradual rate changes over >100kyr can explain the interferometric synthetic aperture radar observations where changes in average uplift rates are greater than similar to 1 mm/yr among different time intervals (similar to 10(1), 10(4-5), and 10(5-6) years).
Located along the Izmir-Ankara-Erzincan Suture (IAES), the Maastrichtian - Paleogene Orhaniye Basin has yielded a highly enigmatic-yet poorly dated- Paleogene mammal fauna, the endemic character of which has suggested high faunal provincialism associated with paleogeographic isolation of the Anatolian landmass during the early Cenozoic. Despite its biogeographic significance, the tectono-stratigraphic history of the Orhaniye Basin has been poorly documented; Here, we combine sedimentary, magnetostratigraphic, and geochronological data to infer the chronology and depositional history of the Orhaniye Basin. We then assess how our new data and interpretations for the Orhaniye Basin impact (1) the timing and mechanisms of seaway closure along the IAES and (2) the biogeographic evolution of Anatolia. Our results show that the Orhaniye Basin initially developed as a forearc basin during the Maastrichtian, before shifting to a retroarc foreland basin setting sometime between the early Paleocene and 44 Ma. This chronology supports a two-step scenario for the assemblage of the central Anatolian landmass, with incipient collision during the Paleocene - Early Eocene and final seaway retreat along the IAES during the earliest Late Eocene after the last marine incursion into the foreland basin. Our dating for the Orhaniye mammal fauna (44-43 Ma) indicates the persistence of faunal endemism in northern Anatolia until at least the late Lutetian despite the advanced stage of IAES closure. The tectonic evolution of dispersal corridors linking northern Anatolia with adjacent parts of Eurasia was not directly associated with IAES closure and consecutive uplifts, but rather with the build-up of continental bridges on the margins of Anatolia, in the Alpine and Tibetan-Himalayan orogens.
Sedimentary basins in the interior of orogenic plateaus can provide unique insights into the early history of plateau evolution and related geodynamic processes. The northern sectors of the Iranian Plateau of the Arabia-Eurasia collision zone offer the unique possibility to study middle-late Miocene terrestrial clastic and volcaniclastic sediments that allow assessing the nascent stages of collisional plateau formation. In particular, these sedimentary archives allow investigating several debated and poorly understood issues associated with the long-term evolution of the Iranian Plateau, including the regional spatio-temporal characteristics of sedimentation and deformation and the mechanisms of plateau growth. We document that middle-late Miocene crustal shortening and thickening processes led to the growth of a basement-cored range (Takab Range Complex) in the interior of the plateau. This triggered the development of a foreland-basin (Great Pari Basin) to the east between 16.5 and 10.7Ma. By 10.7Ma, a fast progradation of conglomerates over the foreland strata occurred, most likely during a decrease in flexural subsidence triggered by rock uplift along an intraforeland basement-cored range (Mahneshan Range Complex). This was in turn followed by the final incorporation of the foreland deposits into the orogenic system and ensuing compartmentalization of the formerly contiguous foreland into several intermontane basins. Overall, our data suggest that shortening and thickening processes led to the outward and vertical growth of the northern sectors of the Iranian Plateau starting from the middle Miocene. This implies that mantle-flow processes may have had a limited contribution toward building the Iranian Plateau in NW Iran.
High-pressure/low-temperature (HP/LT) chloritoid-bearing micaschists crop out widely in the central part of northern Turkey and represent deep-seated subduction-accretionary complexes. Three peak metamorphic assemblages are identified in the area studied: (1) garnet-chloritoid-glaucophane with pseudomorphs after lawsonite; (2) chloritoid with pseudomorphs after glaucophane; and (3) chloritoid with pseudomorphs after jadeite in addition to phengite, paragonite, quartz, chlorite, rutile, and apatite. The latter is interpreted as transformation of a chloritoid + glaucophane assemblage to chloritoid + jadeite with increasing pressure; PT modeling indicates similar to 17 and 22-25 kbars for the two peak parageneses. The diversity of peak metamorphic assemblages and the PT estimates suggest that basal accretion occurred at different depths within the wedge. The depth of the basal accretion is possibly controlled by the slab-mantle decoupling depth. Stretching and thinning of the lithospheric fore arc induced by the slab rollback possibly caused shallowing of the slab-mantle decoupling depth which limited depth of the basal accretion from 70-80km to similar to 55km within the subduction channel. A slab-mantle coupling depth-controlled basal accretion may also explain the scarcity of eclogite and high-grade blueschist facies metamorphic rocks in active intraoceanic subduction zones. Because the overriding plate is young and hot in intraoceanic subductions, the slab and mantle are coupled at a relatively shallow depth before eclogitization of the oceanic crust. This prevents accretion and exhumation of eclogite along the subduction channel.
Competing hypotheses suggest that Himalayan topography is sustained and the plate convergence is accommodated either solely along the basal decollement, the Main Himalayan thrust (MHT), or more broadly, across multiple thrust faults. In the past, structural, geomorphic, and geodetic data of the Nepalese Himalaya have been used to constrain the geometry of the MHT and its shallow frontal thrust fault, known as Main Frontal thrust (MFT). The MHT flattens at depth and connects to a hinterland mid-crustal, steeper thrust ramp, located similar to 100 km north of the deformation front. There, the present-day convergence across the Himalaya is mostly accommodated by slip along the MFT. Despite a general agreement that in Nepal most of the shortening is accommodated along the MHT, some researchers have suggested the occurrence of persistent out-of-sequence shortening on interior faults near the Main Central thrust (MCT). Along the northwest Himalaya, in contrast, some of these characteristics of central Nepal are missing, suggesting along-strike variation of wedge deformation and MHT fault geometry. Here we present new field observations and seven zircon (U-Th)/He (ZHe) cooling ages combined with existing low-temperature data sets. In agreement with our previous findings, we suggest that the transect of cooling age patterns across the frontal Dhauladhar Range reveals that the Main Boundary thrust (MBT) is a primary fault, which has uplifted and sustained this spectacular mountain front since at least the late Miocene. Our results suggest that the MBT forms an similar to 40-km-long fault ramp before it soles into the MHT, and motion along it has exhumed rocks from depth of similar to 8-10 km. New three-dimensional thermokinematic modeling (using Pecube finite-element code) reveals that the observed ZHe and apatite fission track cooling ages can only be explained by sustained mean MBT slip rates between similar to 2.6 and 3.5 mm a(-1) since at least 8 Ma, which corresponds to a horizontal shortening rate of similar to 1.7-2.4 mm a(-1). We propose that the MBT is active today, despite a lack of definitive field or seismogenic evidence, and continues to accommodate crustal shorting by out-of-sequence faulting. Assuming that present-day geodetic shorting rates (similar to 14 +/- 2 mm a(-1)) across the northwest Himalaya have been sustained over geologic time scales, this implies that the MBT accommodated similar to 15% of the total Himalayan convergence since its onset. Furthermore, our modeling results imply that the MHT is missing a hinterland mid-crustal ramp further north.
Anthropogenically amplified erosion leads to increased fine-grained sediment input into the fluvial system in the 15.000 km2 Kharaa River catchment in northern Mongolia and constitutes a major stressing factor for the aquatic ecosystem. This study uniquely combines the application of intensive monitoring, source fingerprinting and catchment modelling techniques to allow for the comparison of the credibility and accuracy of each single method. High-resolution discharge data were used in combination with daily suspended solid measurements to calculate the suspended sediment budget and compare it with estimations of the sediment budget model SedNet. The comparison of both techniques showed that the development of an overall sediment budget with SedNet was possible, yielding results in the same order of magnitude (20.3 kt a- 1 and 16.2 kt a- 1).
Radionuclide sediment tracing, using Be-7, Cs-137 and Pb-210 was applied to differentiate sediment sources for particles < 10μm from hillslope and riverbank erosion and showed that riverbank erosion generates 74.5% of the suspended sediment load, whereas surface erosion contributes 21.7% and gully erosion only 3.8%. The contribution of the single subcatchments of the Kharaa to the suspended sediment load was assessed based on their variation in geochemical composition (e.g. in Ti, Sn, Mo, Mn, As, Sr, B, U, Ca and Sb). These variations were used for sediment source discrimination with geochemical composite fingerprints based on Genetic Algorithm driven Discriminant Function Analysis, the Kruskal–Wallis H-test and Principal Component Analysis. The contributions of the individual sub-catchment varied from 6.4% to 36.2%, generally showing higher contributions from the sub-catchments in the middle, rather than the upstream portions of the study area.
The results indicate that river bank erosion generated by existing grazing practices of livestock is the main cause for elevated fine sediment input. Actions towards the protection of the headwaters and the stabilization of the river banks within the middle reaches were identified as the highest priority. Deforestation and by lodging and forest fires should be prevented to avoid increased hillslope erosion in the mountainous areas. Mining activities are of minor importance for the overall catchment sediment load but can constitute locally important point sources for particular heavy metals in the fluvial system.
Large-scale commercial cropping of soybeans expanded in the tropical Amazon and Cerrado biomes of Brazil after 1990. More recently, cropping intensified from single-cropping of soybeans to double-cropping of soybeans with corn or cotton. Cropland expansion and intensification, and the accompanying use of mineral fertilizers, raise concerns about whether nutrient runoff and impacts to surface waters will be similar to those experienced in commercial cropland regions at temperate latitudes. We quantified water infiltration through soils, water yield, and streamwater chemistry in watersheds draining native tropical forest and single-and double-cropped areas on the level, deep, highly weathered soils where cropland expansion and intensification typically occurs. Although water yield increased four-fold from croplands, streamwater chemistry remained largely unchanged. Soil characteristics exerted important control over the movement of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) into streams. High soil infiltration rates prevented surface erosion and movement of particulate P, while P fixation in surface soils restricted P movement to deeper soil layers. Nitrogen retention in deep soils, likely by anion exchange, also appeared to limit N leaching and export in streamwater from both single-and double-cropped watersheds that received nitrogen fertilizer. These mechanisms led to lower streamwater P and N concentrations and lower watershed N and P export than would be expected, based on studies from temperate croplands with similar cropping and fertilizer application practices.
The 1911 Chon-Kemin (Kebin) earthquake culminated c. 30 years of remarkable earthquakes in the northern Tien Shan (Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan). Building on prior mapping of the event, we traced its rupture in the field and measured more than 50 offset landforms. Cumulative fault rupture length is >155-195 km along 13 fault patches comprising six sections. The patches are separated by changes of dip magnitude or dip direction, or by 4-10 km-wide stepovers. One <40 km section overlaps and is parallel to the main north-dipping rupture but is 7 km north and dips opposite (south). Both ends of the rupture are along mountain front thrust faults demonstrating late Quaternary activity. We computed the moment from each fault patch using the surface fault traces, dip inferred from the traces, 20 km seismogenic thickness, rigidity of 3.3 x 10(10) N m(-2) and dip slip converted from our observations of the largely reverse sense of motion vertical offsets. The discontinuous patches with c. 3-4 m average slip and peak slip of <14 m yield a seismic moment of 4.6 x 10(20) Nm (M-w 7.78) to 7.4 x 10(20) Nm (M-w 7.91). The majority of moment was released along the inner eastern rupture segments. This geological moment is lower by a factor of 1.5 from that determined from teleseismic data.
This review analyzes the potential role and long-term effects of field perennial polycultures (mixtures) in agricultural systems, with the aim of reducing the trade-offs between provisioning and regulating ecosystem services. First, crop rotations are identified as a suitable tool for the assessment of the long-term effects of perennial polycultures on ecosystem services, which are not visible at the single-crop level. Second, the ability of perennial polycultures to support ecosystem services when used in crop rotations is quantified through eight agricultural ecosystem services. Legume-grass mixtures and wildflower mixtures are used as examples of perennial polycultures, and compared with silage maize as a typical crop for biomass production. Perennial polycultures enhance soil fertility, soil protection, climate regulation, pollination, pest and weed control, and landscape aesthetics compared with maize. They also score lower for biomass production compared with maize, which confirms the trade-off between provisioning and regulating ecosystem services. However, the additional positive factors provided by perennial polycultures, such as reduced costs for mineral fertilizer, pesticides, and soil tillage, and a significant preceding crop effect that increases the yields of subsequent crops, should be taken into account. However, a full assessment of agricultural ecosystem services requires a more holistic analysis that is beyond the capabilities of current frameworks.
Receiver functions (RF) have been used for several decades to study structures beneath seismic stations. Although most available stations are deployed on shore, the number of ocean bottom station (OBS) experiments has increased in recent years. Almost all OBSs have to deal with higher noise levels and a limited deployment time (approximate to 1year), resulting in a small number of usable records of teleseismic earthquakes. Here we use OBSs deployed as midaperture array in the deep ocean (4.5-5.5km water depth) of the eastern mid-Atlantic. We use evaluation criteria for OBS data and beamforming to enhance the quality of the RFs. Although some stations show reverberations caused by sedimentary cover, we are able to identify the Moho signal, indicating a normal thickness (5-8km) of oceanic crust. Observations at single stations with thin sediments (300-400m) indicate that a probable sharp lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB) might exist at a depth of approximate to 70-80km which is in line with LAB depth estimates for similar lithospheric ages in the Pacific. The mantle discontinuities at approximate to 410km and approximate to 660km are clearly identifiable. Their delay times are in agreement with PREM. Overall the usage of beam-formed earthquake recordings for OBS RF analysis is an excellent way to increase the signal quality and the number of usable events.
We have analyzed the recently developed pan-European strong motion database, RESORCE-2012: spectral parameters, such as stress drop (stress parameter, Delta sigma), anelastic attenuation (Q), near surface attenuation (kappa(0)) and site amplification have been estimated from observed strong motion recordings. The selected dataset exhibits a bilinear distance-dependent Q model with average kappa(0) value 0.0308 s. Strong regional variations in inelastic attenuation were also observed: frequency-independent Q(0) of 1462 and 601 were estimated for Turkish and Italian data respectively. Due to the strong coupling between Q and kappa(0), the regional variations in Q have strong impact on the estimation of near surface attenuation kappa(0). kappa(0) was estimated as 0.0457 and 0.0261 s for Turkey and Italy respectively. Furthermore, a detailed analysis of the variability in estimated kappa(0) revealed significant within-station variability. The linear site amplification factors were constrained from residual analysis at each station and site-class type. Using the regional Q(0) model and a site-class specific kappa(0), seismic moments (M-0) and source corner frequencies f (c) were estimated from the site corrected empirical Fourier spectra. Delta sigma did not exhibit magnitude dependence. The median Delta sigma value was obtained as 5.75 and 5.65 MPa from inverted and database magnitudes respectively. A comparison of response spectra from the stochastic model (derived herein) with that from (regional) ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) suggests that the presented seismological parameters can be used to represent the corresponding seismological attributes of the regional GMPEs in a host-to-target adjustment framework. The analysis presented herein can be considered as an update of that undertaken for the previous Euro-Mediterranean strong motion database presented by Edwards and Fah (Geophys J Int 194(2):1190-1202, 2013a).
High Mountain Asia (HMA) - encompassing the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding mountain ranges - is the primary water source for much of Asia, serving more than a billion downstream users. Many catchments receive the majority of their yearly water budget in the form of snow, which is poorly monitored by sparse in situ weather networks. Both the timing and volume of snowmelt play critical roles in downstream water provision, as many applications - such as agriculture, drinking-water generation, and hydropower - rely on consistent and predictable snowmelt runoff. Here, we examine passive microwave data across HMA with five sensors (SSMI, SSMIS, AMSR-E, AMSR2, and GPM) from 1987 to 2016 to track the timing of the snowmelt season - defined here as the time between maximum passive microwave signal separation and snow clearance. We validated our method against climate model surface temperatures, optical remote-sensing snow-cover data, and a manual control dataset (n = 2100, 3 variables at 25 locations over 28 years); our algorithm is generally accurate within 3-5 days. Using the algorithm-generated snowmelt dates, we examine the spatiotemporal patterns of the snowmelt season across HMA. The climatically short (29-year) time series, along with complex interannual snowfall variations, makes determining trends in snowmelt dates at a single point difficult. We instead identify trends in snowmelt timing by using hierarchical clustering of the passive microwave data to determine trends in self-similar regions. We make the following four key observations. (1) The end of the snowmelt season is trending almost universally earlier in HMA (negative trends). Changes in the end of the snowmelt season are generally between 2 and 8 days decade 1 over the 29-year study period (5-25 days total). The length of the snowmelt season is thus shrinking in many, though not all, regions of HMA. Some areas exhibit later peak signal separation (positive trends), but with generally smaller magnitudes than trends in snowmelt end. (2) Areas with long snowmelt periods, such as the Tibetan Plateau, show the strongest compression of the snowmelt season (negative trends). These trends are apparent regardless of the time period over which the regression is performed. (3) While trends averaged over 3 decades indicate generally earlier snowmelt seasons, data from the last 14 years (2002-2016) exhibit positive trends in many regions, such as parts of the Pamir and Kunlun Shan. Due to the short nature of the time series, it is not clear whether this change is a reversal of a long-term trend or simply interannual variability. (4) Some regions with stable or growing glaciers - such as the Karakoram and Kunlun Shan - see slightly later snowmelt seasons and longer snowmelt periods. It is likely that changes in the snowmelt regime of HMA account for some of the observed heterogeneity in glacier response to climate change. While the decadal increases in regional temperature have in general led to earlier and shortened melt seasons, changes in HMA's cryosphere have been spatially and temporally heterogeneous.
High Mountain Asia (HMA) - encompassing the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding mountain ranges - is the primary water source for much of Asia, serving more than a billion downstream users. Many catchments receive the majority of their yearly water budget in the form of snow, which is poorly monitored by sparse in situ weather networks. Both the timing and volume of snowmelt play critical roles in downstream water provision, as many applications - such as agriculture, drinking-water generation, and hydropower - rely on consistent and predictable snowmelt runoff. Here, we examine passive microwave data across HMA with five sensors (SSMI, SSMIS, AMSR-E, AMSR2, and GPM) from 1987 to 2016 to track the timing of the snowmelt season - defined here as the time between maximum passive microwave signal separation and snow clearance. We validated our method against climate model surface temperatures, optical remote-sensing snow-cover data, and a manual control dataset (n = 2100, 3 variables at 25 locations over 28 years); our algorithm is generally accurate within 3-5 days. Using the algorithm-generated snowmelt dates, we examine the spatiotemporal patterns of the snowmelt season across HMA. The climatically short (29-year) time series, along with complex interannual snowfall variations, makes determining trends in snowmelt dates at a single point difficult. We instead identify trends in snowmelt timing by using hierarchical clustering of the passive microwave data to determine trends in self-similar regions. We make the following four key observations. (1) The end of the snowmelt season is trending almost universally earlier in HMA (negative trends). Changes in the end of the snowmelt season are generally between 2 and 8 days decade 1 over the 29-year study period (5-25 days total). The length of the snowmelt season is thus shrinking in many, though not all, regions of HMA. Some areas exhibit later peak signal separation (positive trends), but with generally smaller magnitudes than trends in snowmelt end. (2) Areas with long snowmelt periods, such as the Tibetan Plateau, show the strongest compression of the snowmelt season (negative trends). These trends are apparent regardless of the time period over which the regression is performed. (3) While trends averaged over 3 decades indicate generally earlier snowmelt seasons, data from the last 14 years (2002-2016) exhibit positive trends in many regions, such as parts of the Pamir and Kunlun Shan. Due to the short nature of the time series, it is not clear whether this change is a reversal of a long-term trend or simply interannual variability. (4) Some regions with stable or growing glaciers - such as the Karakoram and Kunlun Shan - see slightly later snowmelt seasons and longer snowmelt periods. It is likely that changes in the snowmelt regime of HMA account for some of the observed heterogeneity in glacier response to climate change. While the decadal increases in regional temperature have in general led to earlier and shortened melt seasons, changes in HMA's cryosphere have been spatially and temporally heterogeneous.
Atmospheric transport is an understudied mechanism for leaf wax hydrogen isotope applications that contributes to mobilizing and depositing these compounds on the surface of the Earth. While previous efforts have identified the importance of atmospheric leaf wax deposition in remote marine locations, the processes are not well constrained on land in temperate latitudes where lakes are common and sedimentary leaf wax hydrogen isotope values are an attractive tool for understanding past precipitation changes. This work presents results from a field study that was conducted in 2010 and 2011 at Hainich National Park, Germany in order to evaluate the quantity and sources of leaf waxes in the atmosphere. Aerosols were sampled at approximately weekly intervals inside the forest canopy, and n-alkane distributions and hydrogen isotope values were compared with those from major tree species surrounding the sampling site. Despite sampling in what was expected to be a major production center, the distribution and hydrogen isotope values of atmospheric n-alkanes bore little resemblance to those of the local vegetation. Comparison with local meteorological data and to 10-day and 36-h back air mass trajectories indicated shifting effects of winds and temperature, and that mesoscale transport processes were more important than longrange mechanisms. Back trajectories also highlighted source effects, with easterly winds coinciding with relatively lower leaf wax hydrogen isotope values from more continental regions. These results suggest that leaf wax aerosols average over spatial scales that exceed typical surface catchment areas for small lake systems, even in forested areas, yet that the area over which these compounds are derived is still relatively regional. Depositional fluxes were also estimated in order to assess the potential importance of atmospheric transport to sedimentary archives. Although difficult to constrain, these estimates suggest that atmospheric deposition may be non-negligible for lake systems in cases where inputs from rivers or surface runoff are limited. Together, these observations provide new insights on how leaf waxes from different sources are integrated during aeolian transport and the spatial scales over which these processes occur.
The Vogtland, located at the border region between the Czech Republic and Germany, is known for Holocene volcanism, gas and fluid emissions as well as for reoccurring earthquake swarms, pointing towards a high geodynamic activity. During the earthquake swarm in 2008/2009, a temporary array was installed close to Rohrbach (Germany), at an epicentral distance of about 10 km from the Nový Kostel focal zone (aperture ~0.75 km).
22 events of the recorded swarm were selected to set up a source array. Source arrays are spatially clustered earthquakes, which can be used in a similar manner as receiver array recordings of single events (Green’s functions reciprocity). The application of array seismology techniques like beam forming requires similar waveforms and precisely known origin times and locations. The resemblance of waveforms was assured by visual selection of events and quantified with the calculation of cross-correlation coefficients. We observed that the different events recorded at a single station generally show greater resemblances than the recordings of one event at all stations of the receiver array. This indicates a heterogeneous subsurface beneath the receiver array and a comparably homogeneous source array volume with respect to the frequency-dependent resolution of both arrays.
Beam forming was applied on the Z, N and E component recordings of the source array events at 11 stations, and the results were analysed with respect to converted or reflected crustal phases. While the theoretical back azimuth of the direct phases match the beam forming results in case of the source array analysis, in case of receiver array beam forming derivations of 15°-25° are observed.
PS phases, closely following the direct P phase and presumably SP phases, arriving shortly before the direct S phase can be observed on several stations. Based on the time differences to the direct P and S phases we inferred a conversion depth of about 0.6-0.9 km. A second deeper source array was set up in order to interpret a structural phase arriving 0.85 s after the direct P phase on records of deeper events only.
Additionally to the source array beam forming method an analytical method with a fixed medium velocity and a grid search method, both for determining conversion/ reflection locations of phases traveling off the direct line between source and receiver array, were developed and applied to other observed phases.
In conclusion, we think that the distinct beam forming results along with the striking waveform resemblance reveal the opportunities of using source arrays consisting of small swarm events for the analysis of crustal structures.
Central Anatolia is a low-relief, high-elevation region where decadal-scale deformation rates estimated from space geodesy suggest low strain rates within a stiff microplate. However, numerous Quaternary faults have been mapped within this low-strain region and estimating their slip rate and seismic potential is important for hazard assessments in an area of increasing infrastructural development. Here we focus on the Sultanhani Fault (SF), which constitutes an integral part of the Eskisehir-Cihanbeyli Fault System, and use deformed maximum highstand shorelines of palaeo-lake Konya to estimate tectonic slip rates at millennial scale. Some of these shorelines were previously interpreted as fault scarps, but we provide conclusive evidence for their erosional origin. We found that shoreline-angle elevations estimated from differential GPS profiles record vertical displacements of 10.2 m across the SF. New radiocarbon ages of lacustrine molluscs suggest 22.4 m of relative lake-level fall between 22.1 +/- 0.3 and 21.7 +/- 0.4 cal. kaBP, constraining the timing of abrupt abandonment of the highstand shoreline. Models of lithospheric rebound associated with regressions of the Tuz Golu and Konya palaeolakes predict only similar to 1 m of regional-scale uplift across the Konya Basin. Dislocation models of displaced shorelines suggest fault-slip rates of 1.5 and 1.8 mm yr(-1) for planar and listric fault geometries, respectively, providing reasonable results for the latter. We found fault scarps in the Nasuhpinar mudflat that likely represent the most recent ground-breaking rupture of the SF, with an average vertical displacement of 1.2 +/- 0.5 m estimated from 54 topographic profiles, equivalent to a M similar to 6.5-6.9 earthquake based on empirical scaling laws. If such events were characteristic during the ultimate 21 ka, a relatively short recurrence time of similar to 800-900 yr would be needed to account for the millennial slip rate. Alternatively, the fault scarp at Nasuhpinar might represent a larger earthquake requiring more frequent smaller events to account for the millennial rate. The relatively fast slip rate of the SF over the past 21 ka is unlikely to have persisted over longer timescales and might reflect spatiotemporal variations in deformation rates within kinematically-linked fault systems within Central Anatolia, or a transient perturbation to the local stress field or fault strength. Such perturbation might have been related to climatically controlled changes in surface and near-surface loads and by interactions among the different tectonic processes that have been proposed to drive the overall slow uplift and associated extension in the Central Anatolian Plateau.
Site-Corrected Magnitude- and Region-Dependent Correlations of Horizontal Peak Spectral Amplitudes
(2017)
Empirical correlations of horizontal peak spectral amplitudes (PSA) are modeled using the total-residuals obtained in a ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) regression. Recent GMPEs moved toward partially non-ergodic region-and site-specific predictions, while the residual correlation models remained largely ergodic. Using mixed-effects regression, we decompose the total-residuals of a pan-European GMPE into between-event, between-site, and event-and-site corrected residuals to investigate the ergodicity in empirical PSA correlations. We first observed that the between-event correlations are magnitude-dependent, partially due to the differences in source spectra, and influence of stress-drop parameter on small and large events. Next, removing the between-site residuals from within-event residuals yields the event-and-site corrected residuals which are found to be region-dependent, possibly due to the regional differences in distance-decay of short period PSAs. Using our site-corrected magnitude- and region-dependent correlations, and the between-site residuals as empirical site-specific ground motion adjustments, we compute partially non-ergodic conditional mean spectra at four well-recorded sites in Europe and Middle Eastern regions.
Aim: Across the planet, grass-dominated biomes are experiencing shrub encroachment driven by atmospheric CO2 enrichment and land-use change. By altering resource structure and availability, shrub encroachment may have important impacts on vertebrate communities. We sought to determine the magnitude and variability of these effects across climatic gradients, continents, and taxa, and to learn whether shrub thinning restores the structure of vertebrate communities. Location: Worldwide. Time period: Contemporary. Major taxa studied: Terrestrial vertebrates. Methods: We estimated relationships between percentage shrub cover and the structure of terrestrial vertebrate communities (species richness, Shannon diversity and community abundance) in experimentally thinned and unmanipulated shrub-encroached grass-dominated biomes using systematic review and meta-analyses of 43 studies published from 1978 to 2016. We modelled the effects of continent, biome, mean annual precipitation, net primary productivity and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) on the relationship between shrub cover and vertebrate community structure. Results: Species richness, Shannon diversity and total abundance had no consistent relationship with shrub encroachment and experimental thinning did not reverse encroachment effects on vertebrate communities. However, some effects of shrub encroachment on vertebrate communities differed with net primary productivity, amongst vertebrate groups, and across continents. Encroachment had negative effects on vertebrate diversity at low net primary productivity. Mammalian and herpetofaunal diversity decreased with shrub encroachment. Shrub encroachment also had negative effects on species richness and total abundance in Africa but positive effects in North America. Main conclusions: Biodiversity conservation and mitigation efforts responding to shrub encroachment should focus on low-productivity locations, on mammals and herpetofauna, and in Africa. However, targeted research in neglected regions such as central Asia and India will be needed to fill important gaps in our knowledge of shrub encroachment effects on vertebrates. Additionally, our findings provide an impetus for determining the mechanisms associated with changes in vertebrate diversity and abundance in shrub-encroached grass-dominated biomes.
The African Humid Period (AHP) between similar to 15 and 5.5 cal. kyr BP caused major environmental change in East Africa, including filling of the Suguta Valley in the northern Kenya Rift with an extensive (similar to 2150 km(2)), deep (similar to 300 m) lake. Interfingering fluvio-lacustrine deposits of the Baragoi paleo-delta provide insights into the lake-level history and how erosion rates changed during this time, as revealed by delta-volume estimates and the concentration of cosmogenic Be-10 in fluvial sand. Erosion rates derived from delta-volume estimates range from 0.019 to 0.03 mm yr(-1). Be-10-derived paleo-erosion rates at similar to 11.8 cal. kyr BP ranged from 0.035 to 0.086 mm yr(-1), and were 2.7 to 6.6 times faster than at present. In contrast, at similar to 8.7 cal. kyr BP, erosion rates were only 1.8 times faster than at present. Because Be-10-derived erosion rates integrate over several millennia; we modeled the erosion-rate history that best explains the 10Be data using established non-linear equations that describe in situ cosmogenic isotope production and decay. Two models with different temporal constraints (15-6.7 and 12-6.7 kyr) suggest erosion rates that were 25 to 300 times higher than the initial erosion rate (pre-delta formation). That pulse of high erosion rates was short (similar to 4 kyr or less) and must have been followed by a rapid decrease in rates while climate remained humid to reach the modern Be-10-based erosion rate of,similar to 0.013 mm yr(-1). Our simulations also flag the two highest Be-10-derived erosion rates at 11.8 kyr BP related to nonuniform catchment erosion. These changes in erosion rates and processes during the AHP may reflect a strong increase in precipitation, runoff, and erosivity at the arid-to-humid transition either at 15 or similar to 12 cal. kyr BP, before the landscape stabilized again, possibly due to increased soil production and denser vegetation.
Organic matter deposited in ancient, ice-rich permafrost sediments is vulnerable to climate change and may contribute to the future release of greenhouse gases; it is thus important to get a better characterization of the plant organic matter within such sediments. From a Late Quaternary permafrost sediment core from the Buor Khaya Peninsula, we analysed plant-derived sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) to identify the taxonomic composition of plant organic matter, and undertook palynological analysis to assess the environmental conditions during deposition. Using sedaDNA, we identified 154 taxa and from pollen and non-pollen palynomorphs we identified 83 taxa. In the deposits dated between 54 and 51 kyr BP, sedaDNA records a diverse low-centred polygon plant community including recurring aquatic pond vegetation while from the pollen record we infer terrestrial open-land vegetation with relatively dry environmental conditions at a regional scale. A fluctuating dominance of either terrestrial or swamp and aquatic taxa in both proxies allowed the local hydrological development of the polygon to be traced. In deposits dated between 11.4 and 9.7 kyr BP (13.4-11.1 cal kyr BP), sedaDNA shows a taxonomic turnover to moist shrub tundra and a lower taxonomic richness compared to the older samples. Pollen also records a shrub tundra community, mostly seen as changes in relative proportions of the most dominant taxa, while a decrease in taxonomic richness was less pronounced compared to sedaDNA. Our results show the advantages of using sedaDNA in combination with palynological analyses when macrofossils are rarely preserved. The high resolution of the sedaDNA record provides a detailed picture of the taxonomic composition of plant-derived organic matter throughout the core, and palynological analyses prove valuable by allowing for inferences of regional environmental conditions.
The Limpopo Basin in southern Africa is prone to droughts which affect the livelihood of millions of people in South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Mozambique. Seasonal drought early warning is thus vital for the whole region. In this study, the predictability of hydrological droughts during the main runoff period from December to May is assessed using statistical approaches. Three methods (multiple linear models, artificial neural networks, random forest regression trees) are compared in terms of their ability to forecast streamflow with up to 12 months of lead time. The following four main findings result from the study. 1. There are stations in the basin at which standardised streamflow is predictable with lead times up to 12 months. The results show high inter-station differences of forecast skill but reach a coefficient of determination as high as 0.73 (cross validated). 2. A large range of potential predictors is considered in this study, comprising well-established climate indices, customised teleconnection indices derived from sea surface temperatures and antecedent streamflow as a proxy of catchment conditions. El Nino and customised indices, representing sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and Indian oceans, prove to be important teleconnection predictors for the region. Antecedent streamflow is a strong predictor in small catchments (with median 42% explained variance), whereas teleconnections exert a stronger influence in large catchments. 3. Multiple linear models show the best forecast skill in this study and the greatest robustness compared to artificial neural networks and random forest regression trees, despite their capabilities to represent nonlinear relationships. 4. Employed in early warning, the models can be used to forecast a specific drought level. Even if the coefficient of determination is low, the forecast models have a skill better than a climatological forecast, which is shown by analysis of receiver operating characteristics (ROCs). Seasonal statistical forecasts in the Limpopo show promising results, and thus it is recommended to employ them as complementary to existing forecasts in order to strengthen preparedness for droughts.
Die zerstörungsfreien Prüfungen von Bauwerken mit Hilfe von Ultraschallmessverfahren haben in den letzten Jahren an Bedeutung gewonnen. Durch Ultraschallmessungen können die Geometrien von Bauteilen bestimmt sowie von außen nicht sichtbare Fehler wie Delaminationen und Kiesnester erkannt werden.
Mit neuartigen, in das Betonbauteil eingebetteten Ultraschallprüfköpfen sollen nun Bauwerke dauerhaft auf Veränderungen überprüft werden. Dazu werden Ultraschallsignale direkt im Inneren eines Bauteils erzeugt, was die Möglichkeiten der herkömmlichen Methoden der Bauwerksüberwachung wesentlich erweitert. Ein Ultraschallverfahren könnte mit eingebetteten Prüfköpfen ein Betonbauteil kontinuierlich integral überwachen und damit auch stetig fortschreitende Gefügeänderungen, wie beispielsweise Mikrorisse, registrieren.
Sicherheitsrelevante Bauteile, die nach dem Einbau für Messungen unzugänglich oder mittels Ultraschall, beispielsweise durch zusätzliche Beschichtungen der Oberfläche, nicht prüfbar sind, lassen sich mit eingebetteten Prüfköpfen überwachen. An bereits vorhandenen Bauwerken können die Ultraschallprüfköpfe mithilfe von Bohrlöchern und speziellem Verpressmörtel auch nachträglich in das Bauteil integriert werden. Für Fertigbauteile bieten sich eingebettete Prüfköpfe zur Herstellungskontrolle sowie zur Überwachung der Baudurchführung als Werkzeug der Qualitätssicherung an. Auch die schnelle Schadensanalyse eines Bauwerks nach Naturkatastrophen, wie beispielsweise einem Erdbeben oder einer Flut, ist denkbar.
Durch die gute Ankopplung ermöglichen diese neuartigen Prüfköpfe den Einsatz von empfindlichen Auswertungsmethoden, wie die Kreuzkorrelation, die Coda-Wellen-Interferometrie oder die Amplitudenauswertung, für die Signalanalyse. Bei regelmäßigen Messungen können somit sich anbahnende Schäden eines Bauwerks frühzeitig erkannt werden.
Da die Schädigung eines Bauwerks keine direkt messbare Größe darstellt, erfordert eine eindeutige Schadenserkennung in der Regel die Messung mehrerer physikalischer Größen die geeignet verknüpft werden. Physikalische Größen können sein: Ultraschalllaufzeit, Amplitude des Ultraschallsignals und Umgebungstemperatur. Dazu müssen Korrelationen zwischen dem Zustand des Bauwerks, den Umgebungsbedingungen und den Parametern des gemessenen Ultraschallsignals untersucht werden.
In dieser Arbeit werden die neuartigen Prüfköpfe vorgestellt. Es wird beschrieben, dass sie sich, sowohl in bereits errichtete Betonbauwerke als auch in der Konstruktion befindliche, einbauen lassen. Experimentell wird gezeigt, dass die Prüfköpfe in mehreren Ebenen eingebettet sein können da ihre Abstrahlcharakteristik im Beton nahezu ungerichtet ist. Die Mittenfrequenz von rund 62 kHz ermöglicht Abstände, je nach Betonart und SRV, von mindestens 3 m zwischen Prüfköpfen die als Sender und Empfänger arbeiten. Die Empfindlichkeit der eingebetteten Prüfköpfe gegenüber Veränderungen im Beton wird an Hand von zwei Laborexperimenten gezeigt, einem Drei-Punkt-Biegeversuch und einem Versuch zur Erzeugung von Frost-Tau-Wechsel Schäden. Die Ergebnisse werden mit anderen zerstörungsfreien Prüfverfahren verglichen. Es zeigt sich, dass die Prüfköpfe durch die Anwendung empfindlicher Auswertemethoden, auftretende Risse im Beton detektieren, bevor diese eine Gefahr für das Bauwerk darstellen. Abschließend werden Beispiele von Installation der neuartigen Ultraschallprüfköpfe in realen Bauteilen, zwei Brücken und einem Fundament, gezeigt und basierend auf dort gewonnenen ersten Erfahrungen ein Konzept für die Umsetzung einer Langzeitüberwachung aufgestellt.
role of subducted slabs
(2017)
Global earthquake locations are often associated with very large systematic travel-time residuals even for clear arrivals, especially for regional and near-regional stations in subduction zones because of their strongly heterogeneous velocity structure. Travel-time corrections can drastically reduce travel-time residuals at regional stations and, in consequence, improve the relative location accuracy. We have extended the shrinking-box source-specific station terms technique to regional and teleseismic distances and adopted the algorithm for probabilistic, nonlinear, global-search location. We evaluated the potential of the method to compute precise relative hypocentre locations on a global scale. The method has been applied to two specific test regions using existing P- and pP-phase picks. The first data set consists of 3103 events along the Chilean margin and the second one comprises 1680 earthquakes in the Tonga-Fiji subduction zone. Pick data were obtained from the GEOFON earthquake bulletin, produced using data from all available, global station networks. A set of timing corrections varying as a function of source position was calculated for each seismic station. In this way, we could correct the systematic errors introduced into the locations by the inaccuracies in the assumed velocity structure without explicitly solving for a velocity model. Residual statistics show that the median absolute deviation of the travel-time residuals is reduced by 40-60 per cent at regional distances, where the velocity anomalies are strong. Moreover, the spread of the travel-time residuals decreased by similar to 20 per cent at teleseismic distances (>28 degrees). Furthermore, strong variations in initial residuals as a function of recording distance are smoothed out in the final residuals. The relocated catalogues exhibit less scattered locations in depth and sharper images of the seismicity associated with the subducting slabs. Comparison with a high-resolution local catalogue reveals that our relocation process significantly improves the hypocentre locations compared to standard locations.
Regional snow-avalanche detection using object-based image analysis of near-infrared aerial imagery
(2017)
Snow avalanches are destructive mass movements in mountain regions that continue to claim lives and cause infrastructural damage and traffic detours. Given that avalanches often occur in remote and poorly accessible steep terrain, their detection and mapping is extensive and time consuming. Nonetheless, systematic avalanche detection over large areas could help to generate more complete and up-to-date inventories (cadastres) necessary for validating avalanche forecasting and hazard mapping. In this study, we focused on automatically detecting avalanches and classifying them into release zones, tracks, and run-out zones based on 0.25m near-infrared (NIR) ADS80-SH92 aerial imagery using an object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach. Our algorithm takes into account the brightness, the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), the normalised difference water index (NDWI), and its standard deviation (SDNDWI) to distinguish avalanches from other land-surface elements. Using normalised parameters allows applying this method across large areas. We trained the method by analysing the properties of snow avalanches at three 4km−2 areas near Davos, Switzerland. We compared the results with manually mapped avalanche polygons and obtained a user's accuracy of >0.9 and a Cohen's kappa of 0.79–0.85. Testing the method for a larger area of 226.3km−2, we estimated producer's and user's accuracies of 0.61 and 0.78, respectively, with a Cohen's kappa of 0.67. Detected avalanches that overlapped with reference data by >80% occurred randomly throughout the testing area, showing that our method avoids overfitting. Our method has potential for large-scale avalanche mapping, although further investigations into other regions are desirable to verify the robustness of our selected thresholds and the transferability of the method.
Regional snow-avalanche detection using object-based image analysis of near-infrared aerial imagery
(2017)
Snow avalanches are destructive mass movements in mountain regions that continue to claim lives and cause infrastructural damage and traffic detours. Given that avalanches often occur in remote and poorly accessible steep terrain, their detection and mapping is extensive and time consuming. Nonetheless, systematic avalanche detection over large areas could help to generate more complete and up-to-date inventories (cadastres) necessary for validating avalanche forecasting and hazard mapping. In this study, we focused on automatically detecting avalanches and classifying them into release zones, tracks, and run-out zones based on 0.25 m near-infrared (NIR) ADS80-SH92 aerial imagery using an object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach. Our algorithm takes into account the brightness, the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), the normalised difference water index (NDWI), and its standard deviation (SDNDWI) to distinguish avalanches from other land-surface elements. Using normalised parameters allows applying this method across large areas. We trained the method by analysing the properties of snow avalanches at three 4 km−2 areas near Davos, Switzerland. We compared the results with manually mapped avalanche polygons and obtained a user's accuracy of > 0.9 and a Cohen's kappa of 0.79–0.85. Testing the method for a larger area of 226.3 km−2, we estimated producer's and user's accuracies of 0.61 and 0.78, respectively, with a Cohen's kappa of 0.67. Detected avalanches that overlapped with reference data by > 80 % occurred randomly throughout the testing area, showing that our method avoids overfitting. Our method has potential for large-scale avalanche mapping, although further investigations into other regions are desirable to verify the robustness of our selected thresholds and the transferability of the method.
Regional snow-avalanche detection using object-based image analysis of near-infrared aerial imagery
(2017)
Snow avalanches are destructive mass movements in mountain regions that continue to claim lives and cause infrastructural damage and traffic detours. Given that avalanches often occur in remote and poorly accessible steep terrain, their detection and mapping is extensive and time consuming. Nonetheless, systematic avalanche detection over large areas could help to generate more complete and up-to-date inventories (cadastres) necessary for validating avalanche forecasting and hazard mapping. In this study, we focused on automatically detecting avalanches and classifying them into release zones, tracks, and run-out zones based on 0.25 m near-infrared (NIR) ADS80-SH92 aerial imagery using an object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach. Our algorithm takes into account the brightness, the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI), the normalised difference water index (NDWI), and its standard deviation (SDNDWI) to distinguish avalanches from other land-surface elements. Using normalised parameters allows applying this method across large areas. We trained the method by analysing the properties of snow avalanches at three 4 km−2 areas near Davos, Switzerland. We compared the results with manually mapped avalanche polygons and obtained a user's accuracy of > 0.9 and a Cohen's kappa of 0.79–0.85. Testing the method for a larger area of 226.3 km−2, we estimated producer's and user's accuracies of 0.61 and 0.78, respectively, with a Cohen's kappa of 0.67. Detected avalanches that overlapped with reference data by > 80 % occurred randomly throughout the testing area, showing that our method avoids overfitting. Our method has potential for large-scale avalanche mapping, although further investigations into other regions are desirable to verify the robustness of our selected thresholds and the transferability of the method.
Moderate to large earthquakes can increase the amount of water feeding stream flows, mobilizing excess water from deep groundwater, shallow groundwater, or the vadose zone. Here we examine the regional pattern of streamflow response to the Maule M8.8 earthquake across Chile's diverse topographic and hydro-climatic gradients. We combine streamflow analyses with groundwater flow modeling and a random forest classifier, and find that, after the earthquake, at least 85 streams had a change in flow. Discharge mostly increased () shortly after the earthquake, liberating an excess water volume of >1.1 km3, which is the largest ever reported following an earthquake. Several catchments had increased discharge of >50 mm, locally exceeding seasonal streamflow discharge under undisturbed conditions. Our modeling results favor enhanced vertical permeability induced by dynamic strain as the most probable process explaining the observed changes at the regional scale. Supporting this interpretation, our random forest classification identifies peak ground velocity and elevation extremes as most important for predicting streamflow response. Given the mean recurrence interval of ∼25 yr for >M8.0 earthquakes along the Peru–Chile Trench, our observations highlight the role of earthquakes in the regional water cycle, especially in arid environments.
A sediment core from Khatanga-12 Lake (Taimyr Peninsula, Krasnoyarsk krai) has been studied. The 131.5-cm-long core covers ca. 7100 years of sedimentation. Chironomid analysis, a qualitative reconstruction of the paleoenvironment in the region, and a quantitative reconstruction of variations of the mean July air temperature and in the water depth of the lake have been performed using Northern Russia chironomid-inferred mean July temperature models (Nazarova et al., 2008, 2011, 2015). Khatanga-12 Lake was formed during the Middle Holocene warming as a result of thermokarst processes. The development of the lake ecosystem at different stages of its development was influenced by climatic and cryolithogenic factors. The Middle Holocene warming, which occurred around 7100-6250 cal. years BP, activated thermokarst processes and resulted in the formation of the lake basin. Later, between 6250 and 4500 cal. years BP, a period of cooling took place, as is proved by chironomid analysis. The bottom sediments of the lake during this period were formed by erosion processes on the lake shores. The reconstructed conditions were close to the modern after 2500 cal. years BP.
We investigated a well-dated sediment section of a palaeolake situated in the coastal zone of Shikotan Island (Lesser Kurils) for organic sediment-geochemistry and biotic components (diatoms, chironomids, pollen) in order to provide a reconstruction of the palaeoenvironmental changes and palaeo-events (tsunamis, sea-level fluctuations and landslides) in Holocene. During the ca 8000 years of sedimentation the changes in organic sediment-geochemistry and in composition of the diatoms and chironomids as well as the shifts in composition of terrestrial vegetation suggest that the period until ca 5800 cal yr BP was characterized by a warm and humid climate (corresponds to middle Holocene optimum) with climate cooling thereafter. A warm period reconstructed from ca 900 to at least ca 580 cal yr BP corresponds to a transition to a Nara-Heian-Kamakura warm stage and can be correlated to a Medieval Warm Period. After 580 cal yr PB, the lake gradually dried out and climatic signals could not be obtained from the declining lacustrine biological communities, but the increasing role of spruce and disappearance of the oak from the vegetation give evidences of the climate cooling that can be correlated with the LIA. The marine regression stages at the investigated site are identified for ca 6200-5900 (at the end of the middle Holocene transgression), ca 5500-5100 (Middle Jomon regression or Kemigawa regression), and ca 1070-360 cal yr BP (at the end of Heian transgression). The lithological structure of sediments and the diatom compositions give evidences for the multiple tsunami events of different strengths in the Island. Most remarkable of them can be dated at around ca 7000, 6460, 5750, 4800, 950 cal yr BP. The new results help to understand the Holocene environmental history of the Southern Kurils as a part of the Kuril-Kamchatka and Aleutian Marginal Sea-Island Arc Systems in the North-Western Pacific region.
Understanding the mechanisms responsible for generating different phases and morphologies of calcium phosphate by elastin-like recombinamers is supreme for bioengineering of advanced multifunctional materials. The generation of such multifunctional hybrid materials depends on the properties of their counterparts and the way in which they are assembled. The success of this assembly depends on the different approaches used, such as recombinant DNA technology and click chemistry. In the present work, an elastin-like recombinamer bearing lysine amino acids distributed along the recombinamer chain has been cross-linked via Huisgen [2 + 3] cycloaddition. The recombinamer contains the SN(A)15 peptide domains inspired by salivary statherin, a peptide epitope known to specifically bind to and nucleate calcium phosphate. The benefit of using click chemistry is that the hybrid elastin-like-statherin recombinamers cross-link without losing their fibrillar structure. Mineralization of the resulting hybrid elastin-like-statherin recombinamer hydrogels with calcium phosphate is described. Thus, two different hydroxyapatite morphologies (cauliflower- and plate-like) have been formed. Overall, this study shows that crosslinking elastin-like recombinamers leads to interesting matrix materials for the generation of calcium phosphate composites with potential applications as biomaterials.
The SEIS (Seismic Experiment for Interior Structure) instrument onboard the InSight mission will be the first seismometer directly deployed on the surface of Mars. From studies on the Earth and the Moon, it is well known that site amplification in low-velocity sediments on top of more competent rocks has a strong influence on seismic signals, but can also be used to constrain the subsurface structure. Here we simulate ambient vibration wavefields in a model of the shallow sub-surface at the InSight landing site in Elysium Planitia and demonstrate how the high-frequency Rayleigh wave ellipticity can be extracted from these data and inverted for shallow structure. We find that, depending on model parameters, higher mode ellipticity information can be extracted from single-station data, which significantly reduces uncertainties in inversion. Though the data are most sensitive to properties of the upper-most layer and show a strong trade-off between layer depth and velocity, it is possible to estimate the velocity and thickness of the sub-regolith layer by using reasonable constraints on regolith properties. Model parameters are best constrained if either higher mode data can be used or additional constraints on regolith properties from seismic analysis of the hammer strokes of InSight’s heat flow probe HP3 are available. In addition, the Rayleigh wave ellipticity can distinguish between models with a constant regolith velocity and models with a velocity increase in the regolith, information which is difficult to obtain otherwise.
The eastern flanks of the Central Andes are characterized by deep convection, exposing them to hydrometeorological extreme events, often resulting in floods and a variety of mass movements. We assessed the spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall trends and the changes in the magnitude and frequency of extreme events (ae<yen>95th percentile) along an E-W traverse across the southern Central Andes using rain-gauge and high-resolution gridded datasets (CPC-uni and TRMM 3B42 V7). We generated different climate indices and made three key observations: (1) an increase of the annual rainfall has occurred at the transition between low (< 0.5 km) and intermediate (0.5-3 km) elevations between 1950 and 2014. Also, rainfall increases during the wet season and, to a lesser degree, decreases during the dry season. Increasing trends in annual total amounts characterize the period 1979-2014 in the arid, high-elevation southern Andean Plateau, whereas trend reversals with decreasing annual total amounts were found at low elevations. (2) For all analyzed periods, we observed small or no changes in the median values of the rainfall-frequency distribution, but significant trends with intensification or attenuation in the 95th percentile. (3) In the southern Andean Plateau, extreme rainfall events exhibit trends towards increasing magnitude and, to a lesser degree, frequency during the wet season, at least since 1979. Our analysis revealed that low (< 0.5 km), intermediate (0.5-3 km), and high-elevation (> 3 km) areas respond differently to changing climate conditions, and the transition zone between low and intermediate elevations is characterized by the most significant changes.
We report the chronological construction for the top portion of a speleothem, PC1, from southern Cambodia with the aim of reconstructing a continuous high-resolution climate record covering the fluorescence and decline of the medieval Khmer kingdom and its capital at Angkor (similar to 9th-15th centuries AD). Earlier attempts to date PC1 by the standard U-Th method proved unsuccessful. We have therefore dated this speleothem using radiocarbon. Fifty carbonate samples along the growth axis of PC1 were collected for accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) analysis. Chronological reconstruction for PC1 was achieved using two different approaches described by Hua et al. (2012a) and Lechleitner et al. (2016a). Excellent concordance between the two age-depth models indicates that the top similar to 47 mm of PC1 grew during the last millennium with a growth hiatus during similar to 1250-1650 AD, resulting from a large change in measured C-14 values at 34.4-35.2 mm depth. The timing of the growth hiatus covers the period of decades-long droughts during the 14th-16th centuries AD indicated in regional climate records.
Radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence dating of sediments from Lake Karakul, Tajikistan
(2017)
Lake Karakul in the eastern Pamirs is a large and closed-basin lake in a partly glaciated catchment. Two parallel sediment cores were collected from 12 m water depth. The cores were correlated using XRF analysis and dated using radiocarbon and OSL techniques. The age results of the two dating methods are generally in agreement. The correlated composite core of 12.26 m length represents continuous accumulation of sediments in the lake basin since 31 ka. The lake reservoir effect (LRE) remained relatively constant over this period. High sediment accumulation rates (SedARs) were recorded before 23 ka and after 6.5 ka. The relatively close position of the coring location near the eastern shore of the lake implies that high SedARs resulted from low lake levels. Thus, high SedARs and lower lake levels before 23 ka probably reflect cold and dry climate conditions that inhibited the arrival of moist air at high elevation in the eastern Pamirs. Low lake levels after 6.5 ka were probably caused by declining temperatures after the warmer early Holocene, which had caused a reduction in water resources stored as snow, ice and frozen ground in the catchment. Low SedARs during 23-6.5 ka suggest increased lake levels in Lake Karakul. A short-lived increase of SedARs at 15 ka probably corresponds to the rapid melting of glaciers in the Karakul catchment during the Greenland Interstadial le, shortly after glaciers in the catchment had reached their maximum extents. The sediment cores from Lake Karakul represent an important climate archive with robust chronology for the last glacial interglacial cycle from Central Asia. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Early agriculture can be detected in palaeovegetation records, but quantification of the relative importance of climate and land use in influencing regional vegetation composition since the onset of agriculture is a topic that is rarely addressed. We present a novel approach that combines pollen-based REVEALS estimates of plant cover with climate, anthropogenic land-cover and dynamic vegetation modelling results. This is used to quantify the relative impacts of land use and climate on Holocene vegetation at a sub-continental scale, i.e. northern and western Europe north of the Alps. We use redundancy analysis and variation partitioning to quantify the percentage of variation in vegetation composition explained by the climate and land-use variables, and Monte Carlo permutation tests to assess the statistical significance of each variable. We further use a similarity index to combine pollen based REVEALS estimates with climate-driven dynamic vegetation modelling results. The overall results indicate that climate is the major driver of vegetation when the Holocene is considered as a whole and at the sub-continental scale, although land use is important regionally. Four critical phases of land-use effects on vegetation are identified. The first phase (from 7000 to 6500 BP) corresponds to the early impacts on vegetation of farming and Neolithic forest clearance and to the dominance of climate as a driver of vegetation change. During the second phase (from 4500 to 4000 BP), land use becomes a major control of vegetation. Climate is still the principal driver, although its influence decreases gradually. The third phase (from 2000 to 1500 BP) is characterised by the continued role of climate on vegetation as a consequence of late-Holocene climate shifts and specific climate events that influence vegetation as well as land use. The last phase (from 500 to 350 BP) shows an acceleration of vegetation changes, in particular during the last century, caused by new farming practices and forestry in response to population growth and industrialization. This is a unique signature of anthropogenic impact within the Holocene but European vegetation remains climatically sensitive and thus may continue to respond to ongoing climate change. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Most of the deformation associated with the seismic cycle in subduction zones occurs offshore and has been therefore difficult to quantify with direct observations at millennial timescales. Here we study millennial deformation associated with an active splay-fault system in the Arauco Bay area off south central Chile. We describe hitherto unrecognized drowned shorelines using high-resolution multibeam bathymetry, geomorphic, sedimentologic, and paleontologic observations and quantify uplift rates using a Landscape Evolution Model. Along a margin-normal profile, uplift rates are 1.3m/ka near the edge of the continental shelf, 1.5m/ka at the emerged Santa Maria Island, -0.1m/ka at the center of the Arauco Bay, and 0.3m/ka in the mainland. The bathymetry images a complex pattern of folds and faults representing the surface expression of the crustal-scale Santa Maria splay-fault system. We modeled surface deformation using two different structural scenarios: deep-reaching normal faults and deep-reaching reverse faults with shallow extensional structures. Our preferred model comprises a blind reverse fault extending from 3km depth down to the plate interface at 16km that slips at a rate between 3.0 and 3.7m/ka. If all the splay-fault slip occurs during every great megathrust earthquake, with a recurrence of similar to 150-200years, the fault would slip similar to 0.5m per event, equivalent to a magnitude similar to 6.4 earthquake. However, if the splay-fault slips only with a megathrust earthquake every similar to 1000years, the fault would slip similar to 3.7m per event, equivalent to a magnitude similar to 7.5 earthquake.
Fjords and old-growth forests store large amounts of organic carbon. Yet the role of episodic disturbances, particularly volcanic eruptions, in mobilizing organic carbon in fjord landscapes covered by temperate rainforests remains poorly quantified. To this end, we estimated how much wood and soils were flushed to nearby fjords following the 2008 eruption of Chaiten volcano in south-central Chile, where pyroclastic sediments covered >12km(2) of pristine temperate rainforest. Field-based surveys of forest biomass, soil organic content, and dead wood transport reveal that the reworking of pyroclastic sediments delivered similar to 66,500+14,600/-14,500tC of large wood to two rivers entering the nearby Patagonian fjords in less than a decade. A similar volume of wood remains in dead tree stands and buried beneath pyroclastic deposits (similar to 79,900+21,100/-16,900tC) or stored in active river channels (5,900-10,600tC). We estimate that bank erosion mobilized similar to 132,300(+21,700)/(-30,600)tC of floodplain forest soil. Eroded and reworked forest soils have been accreting on coastal river deltas at >5mmyr(-1) since the eruption. While much of the large wood is transported out of the fjord by long-shore drift, the finer fraction from eroded forest soils is likely to be buried in the fjords. We conclude that the organic carbon fluxes boosted by rivers adjusting to high pyroclastic sediment loads may remain elevated for up to a decade and that Patagonian temperate rainforests disturbed by excessive loads of pyroclastic debris can be episodic short-lived carbon sources. Plain Language Summary Fjords and old-growth forests are important sinks of organic carbon. However, the role of volcanic eruptions in flushing organic carbon in fjord landscapes remains unexplored. Here we estimated how much forest vegetation and soils were lost to fjords following the 2008 eruption ofunknownChaiten volcano in south-central Chile. Pyroclastic sediments obliterated near-pristine temperateunknownrainforest, and the subsequent reworking of these sediments delivered in less than a decade similar to 66,000 tC of large wood to the mountain rivers, draining into the nearby Patagonian fjords. A similar volume of wood remains in dead tree stands and buried beneath pyroclastic deposits or stored in active riverunknownchannels. We estimate that similar to 130,000 tC of organic carbon-rich soil was lost to erosion, thus adding to the carbon loads. While much of the wood enters the long-shore drift in the fjord heads, the finerunknownfraction from eroded forest soils is likely to be buried in the fjords at rates that exceed regional estimates by an order of magnitude. We anticipate that these eruption-driven fluxes will remain elevated forunknownthe coming years and that Patagonian temperate rainforests episodically switch from carbon sinks to hitherto undocumented carbon sources if disturbed by explosive volcanic eruptions.
Improving society's ability to prepare for, respond to and recover from flooding requires integrated, anticipatory flood risk management (FRM). However, most countries still focus their efforts on responding to flooding events if and when they occur rather than addressing their current and future vulnerability to flooding. Flood insurance is one mechanism that could promote a more ex ante approach to risk by supporting risk reduction activities. This paper uses an adapted version of Easton's System Theory to investigate the role of insurance for FRM in Germany and England. We introduce an anticipatory FRM framework, which allows flood insurance to be considered as part of a broader policy field. We analyze if and how flood insurance can catalyze a change toward a more anticipatory approach to FRM. In particular we consider insurance's role in influencing five key components of anticipatory FRM: risk knowledge, prevention through better planning, property‐level protection measures, structural protection and preparedness (for response). We find that in both countries FRM is still a reactive, event‐driven process, while anticipatory FRM remains underdeveloped. Collaboration between insurers and FRM decision‐makers has already been successful, for example in improving risk knowledge and awareness, while in other areas insurance acts as a disincentive for more risk reduction action. In both countries there is evidence that insurance can play a significant role in encouraging anticipatory FRM, but this remains underutilized. Effective collaboration between insurers and government should not be seen as a cost, but as an investment to secure future insurability through flood resilience.
Presentation and Analysis of a Worldwide Database of Earthquake-Induced Landslide Inventories
(2017)
Earthquake-induced landslide (EQIL) inventories are essential tools to extend our knowledge of the relationship between earthquakes and the landslides they can trigger. Regrettably, such inventories are difficult to generate and therefore scarce, and the available ones differ in terms of their quality and level of completeness. Moreover, access to existing EQIL inventories is currently difficult because there is no centralized database. To address these issues, we compiled EQIL inventories from around the globe based on an extensive literature study. The database contains information on 363 landslide-triggering earthquakes and includes 66 digital landslide inventories. To make these data openly available, we created a repository to host the digital inventories that we have permission to redistribute through the U.S. Geological Survey ScienceBase platform. It can grow over time as more authors contribute their inventories. We analyze the distribution of EQIL events by time period and location, more specifically breaking down the distribution by continent, country, and mountain region. Additionally, we analyze frequency distributions of EQIL characteristics, such as the approximate area affected by landslides, total number of landslides, maximum distance from fault rupture zone, and distance from epicenter when the fault plane location is unknown. For the available digital EQIL inventories, we examine the underlying characteristics of landslide size, topographic slope, roughness, local relief, distance to streams, peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and Modified Mercalli Intensity. Also, we present an evaluation system to help users assess the suitability of the available inventories for different types of EQIL studies and model development.
Prediction of the area affected by earthquake-induced landsliding based on seismological parameters
(2017)
We present an analytical, seismologically consistent expression for the surface area of the region within which most landslides triggered by an earthquake are located (landslide distribution area). This expression is based on scaling laws relating seismic moment, source depth, and focal mechanism with ground shaking and fault rupture length and assumes a globally constant threshold of acceleration for onset of systematic mass wasting. The seismological assumptions are identical to those recently used to propose a seismologically consistent expression for the total volume and area of landslides triggered by an earthquake. To test the accuracy of the model we gathered geophysical information and estimates of the landslide distribution area for 83 earthquakes. To reduce uncertainties and inconsistencies in the estimation of the landslide distribution area, we propose an objective definition based on the shortest distance from the seismic wave emission line containing 95% of the total landslide area. Without any empirical calibration the model explains 56% of the variance in our dataset, and predicts 35 to 49 out of 83 cases within a factor of 2, depending on how we account for uncertainties on the seismic source depth. For most cases with comprehensive landslide inventories we show that our prediction compares well with the smallest region around the fault containing 95% of the total landslide area. Aspects ignored by the model that could explain the residuals include local variations of the threshold of acceleration and processes modulating the surface ground shaking, such as the distribution of seismic energy release on the fault plane, the dynamic stress drop, and rupture directivity. Nevertheless, its simplicity and first-order accuracy suggest that the model can yield plausible and useful estimates of the landslide distribution area in near-real time, with earthquake parameters issued by standard detection routines.
Predicting macroscopic elastic rock properties requires detailed information on microstructure
(2017)
Predicting variations in macroscopic mechanical rock behaviour due to microstructural changes, driven by mineral precipitation and dissolution is necessary to couple chemo-mechanical processes in geological subsurface simulations. We apply 3D numerical homogenization models to estimate Young’s moduli for five synthetic microstructures, and successfully validate our results for comparable geometries with the analytical Mori-Tanaka approach. Further, we demonstrate that considering specific rock microstructures is of paramount importance, since calculated elastic properties may deviate by up to 230 % for the same mineral composition. Moreover, agreement between simulated and experimentally determined Young’s moduli is significantly improved, when detailed spatial information are employed.
Postseismic surface deformation associated with great subduction earthquakes is controlled by asthenosphere rheology, frictional properties of the fault, and structural complexity. Here by modeling GPS displacements in the 6 years following the 2010 M-w 8.8 Maule earthquake in Chile, we investigate the impact of heterogeneous viscosity distribution in the South American subcontinental asthenosphere on the 3-D postseismic deformation pattern. The observed postseismic deformation is characterized by flexure of the South America plate with peak uplift in the Andean mountain range and subsidence in the hinterland. We find that, at the time scale of observation, over 2 orders of magnitude gradual increase in asthenosphere viscosity from the arc area toward the cratonic hinterland is needed to jointly explain horizontal and vertical displacements. Our findings present an efficient method to estimate spatial variations of viscosity, which clearly improves the fitting to the vertical signal of deformation. Lateral changes in asthenosphere viscosity can be correlated with the thermomechanical transition from weak subvolcanic arc mantle to strong subcratonic mantle, thus suggesting a stationary heterogeneous viscosity structure. However, we cannot rule out a transient viscosity structure (e.g., power law rheology) with the short time span of observation.
Temporal and spatial stability of the vegetation climate relationship is a basic ecological assumption for pollen-based quantitative inferences of past climate change and for predicting future vegetation. We explore this assumption for the Holocene in eastern continental Asia (China, Mongolia). Boosted regression trees (BRT) between fossil pollen taxa percentages (Abies, Artemisia, Betula, Chenopodiaceae, Cyperaceae, Ephedra, Picea, Pinus, Poaceae and Quercus) and climate model outputs of mean annual precipitation (P-ann) and mean temperature of the warmest month (Mt(wa)) for 9 and 6 ka (ka = thousand years before present) were set up and results compared to those obtained from relating modern pollen to modern climate. Overall, our results reveal only slight temporal differences in the pollen climate relationships. Our analyses suggest that the importance of P-ann compared with Mt(wa) for taxa distribution is higher today than it was at 6 ka and 9 ka. In particular, the relevance of P-ann for Picea and Pinus increases and has become the main determinant. This change in the climate tree pollen relationship parallels a widespread tree pollen decrease in north-central China and the eastern Tibetan Plateau. We assume that this is at least partly related to vegetation climate disequilibrium originating from human impact. Increased atmospheric CO2 concentration may have permitted the expansion of moisture-loving herb taxa (Cyperaceae and Poaceae) during the late Holocene into arid/semi-arid areas. We furthermore find that the pollen climate relationship between north-central China and the eastern Tibetan Plateau is generally similar, but that regional differences are larger than temporal differences. In summary, vegetation climate relationships in China are generally stable in space and time, and pollen-based climate reconstructions can be applied to the Holocene. Regional differences imply the calibration-set should be restricted spatially.
Estuarine marshes are ecosystems that are situated at the transition zone between land and water and are thus controlled by physical and biological interactions. Marsh vegetation offers important ecosystem services by filtrating solid and dissolved substances from the water and providing habitat. By buffering a large part of the arriving flow velocity, attenuating wave energy and serving as erosion control for riverbanks, tidal marshes furthermore reduce the destructive effects of storm surges and storm waves and thus contribute to ecosystem-based shore protection. However, in many estuaries, extensive embankments, artificial bank protection, river dredging and agriculture threaten tidal marshes. Global warming might entail additional risks, such as changes in water levels, an increase of the tidal amplitude and a resulting shift of the salinity zones. This can affect the dynamics of the shore and foreland vegetation, and vegetation belts can be narrowed or fragmented. Against this background, it is crucial to gain a better understanding of the processes underlying the spatio temporal vegetation dynamics in brackish marshes. Furthermore, a better understanding of how plant-habitat relationships generate patterns in tidal marsh vegetation is vital to maintain ecosystem functions and assess the response of marshes to environmental change as well as the success of engineering and restoration projects.
For this purpose, three research objectives were addressed within this thesis: (1) to explore the possibility of vegetation serving as self-adaptive shore protection by quantifying the reduction of current velocity in the vegetation belt and the morphologic plasticity of a brackish marsh pioneer, (2) to disentangle the roles of abiotic factors and interspecific competition on species distribution and stand characteristics in brackish marshes, and (3) to develop a mechanistic vegetation model that helps analysing the influence of habitat conditions on the spatio-temporal dynamic of tidal marsh vegetation. These aspects were investigated using a combination of field studies and statistical as well as process-based modelling.
To explore the possibility of vegetation serving as self-adaptive coastal protection, in the first study, we measured current velocity with and without living vegetation, recorded ramet density and plant thickness during two growing periods at two locations in the Elbe estuary and assessed the adaptive value of a larger stem diameter of plants at locations with higher mechanical stress by biomechanical measurements. The results of this study show that under non-storm conditions, the vegetation belt of the marsh pioneer Bolboschoenus maritimus is able to buffer a large proportion of the flow velocity. We were furthermore able to show that morphological traits of plant species are adapted to hydrodynamic forces by demonstrating a positive correlation between ramet thickness and cross-shore current. In addition, our measurements revealed that thicker ramets growing at the front of the vegetation belt have a significantly higher stability than ramets inside the vegetation belt. This self-adaptive effect improves the ability of B. maritimus to grow and persist in the pioneer zone and could provide an adaptive value in habitats with high mechanical stress.
In the second study, we assessed the distribution of the two marsh species and a set of stand characteristics, namely aboveground and belowground biomass, ramet density, ramet height and the percentage of flowering ramets. Furthermore, we collected information on several abiotic habitat factors to test their effect on plant growth and zonation with generalised linear models (GLMs). Our results demonstrate that flow velocity is the main factor controlling the distribution of Bolboschoenus maritimus and Phragmites australis. Additionally, inundation height and duration, as well as intraspecific competition affect distribution patterns. This study furthermore shows that cross-shore flow velocity does not only directly influence the distribution of the two marsh species, but also alters the plants’ occurrence relative to inun-dation height and duration. This suggests an effect of cross-shore flow velocity on their tolerance to inundation. The analysis of the measured stand characteristics revealed a negative effect of total flow velocity on all measured parameters of B. maritimus and thus confirmed our expectation that flow velocity is a decisive stressor which influences the growth of this species.
To gain a better understanding of the processes and habitat factors influencing the spatio-temporal vegetation dynamics in brackish marshes, I built a spatially explicit, mechanistic model applying a pattern-oriented modelling approach. A sensitivity analysis of the para-meters of this dynamic habitat-macrophyte model HaMac suggests that rhizome growth is the key process for the lateral dynamics of brackish marshes. From the analysed habitat factors, P. australis patterns were mainly influenced by flow velocity. The competition with P. australis was of key importance for the belowground biomass of B. maritimus. Concerning vegetation dynamics, the model results emphasise that without the effect of flow velocity the B. maritimus vegetation belt would expand into the tidal flat at locations with present vegetation recession, suggesting that flow velocity is the main reason for vegetation recession at exposed locations.
Overall, the results of this thesis demonstrate that brackish marsh vegetation considerably contributes to flow reduction under average flow conditions and can hence be a valuable component of shore-protection schemes. At the same time, the distribution, growth and expansion of tidal marsh vegetation is substantially influenced by flow. Altogether, this thesis provides a clear step forward in understanding plant-habitat interactions in tidal marshes. Future research should integrate studies of vertical marsh accretion with research on the factors that control the lateral position of marshes.
Due to increasing pressure on estuarine marshes from sea level rise and river training, there is a growing need to understand how species-environment relationships influence the zonation and growth of tidal marsh vegetation. In the present study, we investigated the distribution and stand characteristics of the two key brackish marsh species Bolboschoenus maritimus and Phragmites australis in the Elbe estuary together with several abiotic habitat factors. We then tested the effect of these habitat factors on plant growth and zonation with generalised linear models (GLMs). Our study provides detailed information on the importance of single habitat factors and their interactions for controlling the distribution patterns and stand characteristics of two key marsh species. Our results suggest that flow velocity is the main factor influencing species distribution and stand characteristics and together with soil-water salinity even affects the inundation tolerance of the two specie investigated here. Additionally, inundation height and duration as well as interspecific competition helped explain the distribution patterns and stand characteristics. By identifying the drivers of marsh zonation and stand characteristics and quantifying their effects, this study provides useful information for evaluating a future contribution of tidal marsh vegetation to ecosystem-based shore protection.
This study explores the suitability of a single hillslope as a parsimonious representation of a catchment in a physically based model. We test this hypothesis by picturing two distinctly different catchments in perceptual models and translating these pictures into parametric setups of 2-D physically based hillslope models. The model parametrizations are based on a comprehensive field data set, expert knowledge and process-based reasoning. Evaluation against streamflow data highlights that both models predicted the annual pattern of streamflow generation as well as the hydrographs acceptably. However, a look beyond performance measures revealed deficiencies in streamflow simulations during the summer season and during individual rainfall-runoff events as well as a mismatch between observed and simulated soil water dynamics. Some of these shortcomings can be related to our perception of the systems and to the chosen hydrological model, while others point to limitations of the representative hillslope concept itself. Nevertheless, our results confirm that representative hillslope models are a suitable tool to assess the importance of different data sources as well as to challenge our perception of the dominant hydrological processes we want to represent therein. Consequently, these models are a promising step forward in the search for the optimal representation of catchments in physically based models.
Highly regulated induction systems enabling dose-dependent and reversible fine-tuning of protein expression output are beneficial for engineering complex biosynthetic pathways. To address this, we developed PhiReX, a novel red/far-red light-regulated protein expression system for use in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. PhiReX is based on the combination of a customizable synTALE DNA-binding domain, the VP64 activation domain and the light-sensitive dimerization of the photoreceptor PhyB and its interacting partner PIF3 from Arabidopsis thaliana. Robust gene expression and high protein levels are achieved by combining genome integrated red light-sensing components with an episomal high-copy reporter construct. The gene of interest as well as the synTALE DNA-binding domain can be easily exchanged, allowing the flexible regulation of any desired gene by targeting endogenous or heterologous promoter regions. To allow low-cost induction of gene expression for industrial fermentation processes, we engineered yeast to endogenously produce the chromophore required for the effective dimerization of PhyB and PIF3. Time course experiments demonstrate high-level induction over a period of at least 48 h.