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Empirical evidence of the relationship between social support and post-disaster mental health provides support for a general beneficial effect of social support (main-effect model; Wheaton, 1985). From a theoretical perspective, a buffering effect of social support on the negative relationship between disaster-related stress and mental health also seems plausible (stress-buffering model; Wheaton, 1985). Previous studies, however, (a) have paid less attention to the buffering effect of social support and (b) have mainly relied on interpersonal support (but not collective-level support such as community resilience) when investigating this issue. This previous work might have underestimated the effect of support on post-disaster mental health. Building on a sample of residents in Germany recently affected by flooding (N = 118), we show that community resilience to flooding (but not general interpersonal social support) buffered against the negative effects of flooding on post-disaster mental health. The results support the stress-buffering model and call for a more detailed look at the relationship between support and resilience and post-disaster adjustment, including collective-level variables.
Abstract. The Sea of Marmara, in northwestern Turkey, is a transition zone where the dextral North Anatolian Fault zone (NAFZ) propagates westward from the Anatolian Plate to the Aegean Sea Plate. The area is of interest in the context of seismic hazard of Istanbul, a metropolitan area with about 15 million inhabitants. Geophysical observations indicate that the crust is heterogeneous beneath the Marmara basin, but a detailed characterization of the crustal heterogeneities is still missing. To assess if and how crustal heterogeneities are related to the NAFZ segmentation below the Sea of Marmara, we develop new crustal-scale 3-D density models which integrate geological and seismological data and that are additionally constrained by 3-D gravity modeling. For the latter, we use two different gravity datasets including global satellite data and local marine gravity observation. Considering the two different datasets and the general non-uniqueness in potential field modeling, we suggest three possible “end-member” solutions that are all consistent with the observed gravity field and illustrate the spectrum of possible solutions. These models indicate that the observed gravitational anomalies originate from significant density heterogeneities within the crust. Two layers of sediments, one syn-kinematic and one pre-kinematic with respect to the Sea of Marmara formation are underlain by a heterogeneous crystalline crust. A felsic upper crystalline crust (average density of 2720 kgm⁻³) and an intermediate to mafic lower crystalline crust (average density of 2890 kgm⁻³) appear to be cross-cut by two large, dome-shaped mafic highdensity bodies (density of 2890 to 3150 kgm⁻³) of considerable thickness above a rather uniform lithospheric mantle (3300 kgm⁻³). The spatial correlation between two major bends of the main Marmara fault and the location of the highdensity bodies suggests that the distribution of lithological heterogeneities within the crust controls the rheological behavior along the NAFZ and, consequently, maybe influences fault segmentation and thus the seismic hazard assessment in the region.
Abstract. The Sea of Marmara, in northwestern Turkey, is a transition zone where the dextral North Anatolian Fault zone (NAFZ) propagates westward from the Anatolian Plate to the Aegean Sea Plate. The area is of interest in the context of seismic hazard of Istanbul, a metropolitan area with about 15 million inhabitants. Geophysical observations indicate that the crust is heterogeneous beneath the Marmara basin, but a detailed characterization of the crustal heterogeneities is still missing. To assess if and how crustal heterogeneities are related to the NAFZ segmentation below the Sea of Marmara, we develop new crustal-scale 3-D density models which integrate geological and seismological data and that are additionally constrained by 3-D gravity modeling. For the latter, we use two different gravity datasets including global satellite data and local marine gravity observation. Considering the two different datasets and the general non-uniqueness in potential field modeling, we suggest three possible “end-member” solutions that are all consistent with the observed gravity field and illustrate the spectrum of possible solutions. These models indicate that the observed gravitational anomalies originate from significant density heterogeneities within the crust. Two layers of sediments, one syn-kinematic and one pre-kinematic with respect to the Sea of Marmara formation are underlain by a heterogeneous crystalline crust. A felsic upper crystalline crust (average density of 2720 kgm⁻³) and an intermediate to mafic lower crystalline crust (average density of 2890 kgm⁻³) appear to be cross-cut by two large, dome-shaped mafic highdensity bodies (density of 2890 to 3150 kgm⁻³) of considerable thickness above a rather uniform lithospheric mantle (3300 kgm⁻³). The spatial correlation between two major bends of the main Marmara fault and the location of the highdensity bodies suggests that the distribution of lithological heterogeneities within the crust controls the rheological behavior along the NAFZ and, consequently, maybe influences fault segmentation and thus the seismic hazard assessment in the region.
The in-phase response collected by portable loop-loop electromagnetic induction (EMI) sensors operating at low and moderate induction numbers (<= 1) is typically used for sensing the magnetic permeability (or susceptibility) of the subsurface. This is due to the fact that the in-phase response contains a small induction fraction and a preponderant induced magnetization fraction. The magnetization fraction follows the magneto-static equations similarly to the magnetic method but with an active magnetic source. The use of an active source offers the possibility to collect data with several loop-loop configurations, which illuminate the subsurface with different sensitivity patterns. Such multiconfiguration soundings thereby allows the imaging of subsurface magnetic permeability/susceptibility variations through an inversion procedure. This method is not affected by the remnant magnetization and theoretically overcomes the classical depth ambiguity generally encountered with passive geomagnetic data. To invert multiconfiguration in-phase data sets, we propose a novel methodology based on a full-grid 3-D multichannel deconvolution (MCD) procedure. This method allows us to invert large data sets (e.g. consisting of more than a hundred thousand of data points) for a dense voxel-based 3-D model of magnetic susceptibility subject to smoothness constraints. In this study, we first present and discuss synthetic examples of our imaging procedure, which aim at simulating realistic conditions. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of our method to field data collected across an archaeological site in Auvergne (France) to image the foundations of a Gallo-Roman villa built with basalt rock material. Our synthetic and field data examples demonstrate the potential of the proposed inversion procedure offering new and complementary ways to interpret data sets collected with modern EMI instruments.
We present a new three-dimensional density model of the Central Andes characterizing the structure and composition of the lithosphere together with a geodynamic simulation subjected to continental intraplate shortening. The principal aim of this study is to assess the link between heterogeneities in the lithosphere and different deformation patterns and styles along the orogen-foreland system of the Central Andes. First, we performed a 3D integration of new geological and geophysical data with previous models through forward modelling of Bouguer anomalies. Subsequently, a geodynamic model was set-up and parametrized from the previously obtained 3D structure and composition. We do not find a unambigous correlation between the resulting density configuration and terrane boundaries proposed by other authors. Our models reproduce the observed Bouguer anomaly and deformation patterns in the foreland. We find that thin-skinned deformation in the Subandean fold-and thrust belt is controlled by a thick sedimentary layer and coeval underthrusting of thin crust of the foreland beneath the thick crust of the Andean Plateau. In the adjacent thick-skinned deformation province of the inverted Cretaceous extensional Santa Barbara System sedimentary strata are much thinner and crustal thickness transitions from greater values in the Andean to a more reduced thickness in the foreland. Our results show that deformation processes occur where the highest gradients of lithospheric strength are present between the orogen and the foreland, thus suggesting a spatial correlation between deformation and lithospheric strength.
Design flood estimation is an essential part of flood risk assessment. Commonly applied are flood frequency analyses and design storm approaches, while the derived flood frequency using continuous simulation has been getting more attention recently. In this study, a continuous hydrological modelling approach on an hourly time scale, driven by a multi-site weather generator in combination with a -nearest neighbour resampling procedure, based on the method of fragments, is applied. The derived 100-year flood estimates in 16 catchments in Vorarlberg (Austria) are compared to (a) the flood frequency analysis based on observed discharges, and (b) a design storm approach. Besides the peak flows, the corresponding runoff volumes are analysed. The spatial dependence structure of the synthetically generated flood peaks is validated against observations. It can be demonstrated that the continuous modelling approach can achieve plausible results and shows a large variability in runoff volume across the flood events.
The Upper Cretaceous (Campanian-Maastrichtian) bioclastic wedge of the Orfento Formation in the Montagna della Maiella, Italy, is compared to newly discovered contourite drifts in the Maldives. Like the drift deposits in the Maldives, the Orfento Formation fills a channel and builds a Miocene delta-shaped and mounded sedimentary body in the basin that is similar in size to the approximately 350 km(2) large coarse-grained bioclastic Miocene delta drifts in the Maldives. The composition of the bioclastic wedge of the Orfento Formation is also exclusively bioclastic debris sourced from the shallow-water areas and reworked clasts of the Orfento Formation itself. In the near mud-free succession, age-diagnostic fossils are sparse. The depositional textures vary from wackestone to float-rudstone and breccia/conglomerates, but rocks with grainstone and rudstone textures are the most common facies. In the channel, lensoid convex-upward breccias, cross-cutting channelized beds and thick grainstone lobes with abundant scours indicate alternating erosion and deposition from a high-energy current. In the basin, the mounded sedimentary body contains lobes with a divergent progradational geometry. The lobes are built by decametre thick composite megabeds consisting of sigmoidal clinoforms that typically have a channelized topset, a grainy foreset and a fine-grained bottomset with abundant irregular angular clasts. Up to 30 m thick channels filled with intraformational breccias and coarse grainstones pinch out downslope between the megabeds. In the distal portion of the wedge, stacked grainstone beds with foresets and reworked intraclasts document continuous sediment reworking and migration. The bioclastic wedge of the Orfento Formation has been variously interpreted as a succession of sea-level controlled slope deposits, a shoaling shoreface complex, or a carbonate tidal delta. Current-controlled delta drifts in the Maldives, however, offer a new interpretation because of their similarity in architecture and composition. These similarities include: (i) a feeder channel opening into the basin; (ii) an excavation moat at the exit of the channel; (iii) an overall mounded geometry with an apex that is in shallower water depth than the source channel; (iv) progradation of stacked lobes; (v) channels that pinch out in a basinward direction; and (vi) smaller channelized intervals that are arranged in a radial pattern. As a result, the Upper Cretaceous (Campanian-Maastrichtian) bioclastic wedge of the Orfento Formation in the Montagna della Maiella, Italy, is here interpreted as a carbonate delta drift.
Advances in the field of seismic interferometry have provided a basic theoretical interpretation to the full spectrum of the microtremor horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio [H/V(f)]. The interpretation has been applied to ambient seismic noise data recorded both at the surface and at depth. The new algorithm, based on the diffuse wavefield assumption, has been used in inversion schemes to estimate seismic wave velocity profiles that are useful input information for engineering and exploration seismology both for earthquake hazard estimation and to characterize surficial sediments. However, until now, the developed algorithms are only suitable for on land environments with no offshore consideration. Here, the microtremor H/V(z, f) modelling is extended for applications to marine sedimentary environments for a 1-D layered medium. The layer propagator matrix formulation is used for the computation of the required Green’s functions. Therefore, in the presence of a water layer on top, the propagator matrix for the uppermost layer is defined to account for the properties of the water column. As an application example we analyse eight simple canonical layered earth models. Frequencies ranging from 0.2 to 50 Hz are considered as they cover a broad wavelength interval and aid in practice to investigate subsurface structures in the depth range from a few meters to a few hundreds of meters. Results show a marginal variation of 8 per cent at most for the fundamental frequency when a water layer is present. The water layer leads to variations in H/V peak amplitude of up to 50 per cent atop the solid layers.
Growing attention to phytoplankton mixotrophy as a trophic strategy has led to significant revisions of traditional pelagic food web models and ecosystem functioning. Although some empirical estimates of mixotrophy do exist, a much broader set of in situ measurements are required to (i) identify which organisms are acting as mixotrophs in real time and to (ii) assess the contribution of their heterotrophy to biogeochemical cycling. Estimates are needed through time and across space to evaluate which environmental conditions or habitats favour mixotrophy: conditions still largely unknown. We review methodologies currently available to plankton ecologists to undertake estimates of plankton mixotrophy, in particular nanophytoplankton phago-mixotrophy. Methods are based largely on fluorescent or isotopic tracers, but also take advantage of genomics to identify phylotypes and function. We also suggest novel methods on the cusp of use for phago-mixotrophy assessment, including single-cell measurements improving our capacity to estimate mixotrophic activity and rates in wild plankton communities down to the single-cell level. Future methods will benefit from advances in nanotechnology, micromanipulation and microscopy combined with stable isotope and genomic methodologies. Improved estimates of mixotrophy will enable more reliable models to predict changes in food web structure and biogeochemical flows in a rapidly changing world.
Ancient evaporite deposits are geological archives of depositional environments characterized by a long‐term negative precipitation balance and bear evidence for global ocean element mass balance calculations. Here, Cretaceous selenite pseudomorphs from western Anatolia (‘Rosetta Marble’) — characterized by their exceptional morphological preservation — and their ‘marine’ geochemical signatures are described and interpreted in a process‐oriented context. These rocks recorded Late Cretaceous high‐pressure/low‐temperature, subduction‐related metamorphism with peak conditions of 1·0 to 1·2 GPa and 300 to 400°C. Metre‐scale, rock‐forming radiating rods, now present as fibrous calcite marble, clearly point to selenitic gypsum as the precursor mineral. Stratigraphic successions are recorded along a reconstructed proximal to distal transect. The cyclical alternation of selenite beds and radiolarian ribbon‐bedded cherts in the distal portions are interpreted as a two type of seawater system. During arid intervals, shallow marine brines cascaded downward into basinal settings and induced precipitation. During more humid times, upwelling‐induced radiolarian blooms caused the deposition of radiolarite facies. Interestingly, there is no comparable depositional setting known from the Cenozoic world. Meta‐selenite geochemical data (δ13C, δ18O and 87Sr/86Sr) plot within the range of reconstructed middle Cretaceous seawater signatures. Possible sources for the 13C‐enriched (mean 2·2‰) values include methanogenesis, gas hydrates and cold seep fluid exhalation. Spatially resolved component‐specific analysis of a rock slab displays isotopic variances between meta‐selenite crystals (mean δ13C 2·2‰) and host matrix (mean δ13C 1·3‰). The Cretaceous evaporite‐pseudomorphs of Anatolia represent a basin wide event coeval with the Aptian evaporites of the Proto‐Atlantic and the pseudomorphs share many attributes, including lateral distribution of 600 km and stratigraphic thickness of 1·5 to 2·0 km, with the evaporites formed during the younger Messinian salinity crisis. The Rosetta Marble of Anatolia may represent the best‐preserved selenite pseudomorphs worldwide and have a clear potential to act as a template for the study of meta‐selenite in deep time.
Frequent and intense rainfall events demand innovative techniques to better predict the extreme rainfall dynamics. This task requires essentially the assessment of the basic types of atmospheric processes that trigger extreme rainfall, and then to examine the differences between those processes, which may help to identify key patterns to improve predictive algorithms. We employ tools from network theory to compare the spatial features of extreme rainfall over the Japanese archipelago and surrounding areas caused by two atmospheric processes: the Baiu front, which occurs mainly in June and July (JJ), and the tropical storms from August to November (ASON). We infer from complex networks of satellite-derived rainfall data, which are based on the nonlinear correlation measure of event synchronization. We compare the spatial scales involved in both systems and identify different regions which receive rainfall due to the large spatial scale of the Baiu and tropical storm systems. We observed that the spatial scales involved in the Baiu driven rainfall extremes, including the synoptic processes behind the frontal development, are larger than tropical storms, which even have long tracks during extratropical transitions. We further delineate regions of coherent rainfall during the two seasons based on network communities, identifying the horizontal (east-west) rainfall bands during JJ over the Japanese archipelago, while during ASON these bands align with the island arc of Japan.
Flow accumulation algorithms estimate the steady state of flow on real or modeled topographic surfaces and are crucial for hydrological and geomorphological assessments, including delineation of river networks, drainage basins, and sediment transport processes. Existing flow accumulation algorithms are typically designed to compute flows on regular grids and are not directly applicable to arbitrarily sampled topographic data such as lidar point clouds. In this study we present a random sampling scheme that generates homogeneous point densities, in combination with a novel flow path tracing approach-the Facet-Flow Network (FFN)-that estimates flow accumulation in terms of specific catchment area (SCA) on triangulated surfaces. The random sampling minimizes biases due to spatial sampling and the FFN allows for direct flow estimation from point clouds. We validate our approach on a Gaussian hill surface and study the convergence of its SCA compared to the analytical solution. Here, our algorithm outperforms the multiple flow direction algorithm, which is optimized for divergent surfaces. We also compute the SCA of a 6-km(2)-steep, vegetated catchment on Santa Cruz Island, California, based on airborne lidar point-cloud data. Point-cloud-based SCA values estimated by our method compare well with those estimated by the D-infinity or multiple flow direction algorithm on gridded data. The advantage of computing SCA from point clouds becomes relevant especially for divergent topography and for small drainage areas: These are depicted with much more detail due to the higher sampling density of point clouds.
The computation of such synthetic GFs is computationally and operationally demanding. As a consequence, the onthe-fly recalculation of synthetic GFs in each iteration of an optimisation is time-consuming and impractical. Therefore, the pre-calculation and efficient storage of synthetic GFs on a dense grid of source to receiver combinations enables the efficient lookup and utilisation of GFs in time-critical scenarios. We present a Python-based framework and toolkit - Pyrocko-GF - that enables the pre-calculation of synthetic GF stores, which are independent of their numerical calculation method and GF transfer function. The framework aids in the creation of such GF stores by interfacing a suite of established numerical forward modelling codes in seismology (computational back ends). So far, interfaces to back ends for layered Earth model cases have been provided; however, the architecture of Pyrocko-GF is designed to cover back ends for other geometries (e.g. full 3-D heterogeneous media) and other physical quantities (e.g. gravity, pressure, tilt). Therefore, Pyrocko-GF defines an extensible GF storage format suitable for a wide range of GF types, especially handling elasticity and wave propagation problems. The framework assists with visualisations, quality control, and the exchange of GF stores, which is supported through an online platform that provides many pre-calculated GF stores for local, regional, and global studies. The Pyrocko-GF toolkit comes with a well-documented application programming interface (API) for the Python programming language to efficiently facilitate forward modelling of geophysical processes, e.g. synthetic waveforms or static displacements for a wide range of source models.
Dynamic earthquake rupture modeling provides information on the rupture physics as the rupture velocity, frictions or tractions acting during the rupture process. Nevertheless, as often based on spatial gridded preset geometries, dynamic modeling is depending on many free parameters leading to both a high non-uniqueness of the results and large computation times. That decreases the possibilities of full Bayesian error analysis.
To assess the named problems we developed the quasi-dynamic rupture model which is presented in this work. It combines the kinematic Eikonal rupture model with a boundary element method for quasi-static slip calculation.
The orientation of the modeled rupture plane is defined by a previously performed moment tensor inversion. The simultanously inverted scalar seismic moment allows an estimation of the extension of the rupture. The modeled rupture plane is discretized by a set of rectangular boundary elements. For each boundary element an applied traction vector is defined as the boundary value.
For insights in the dynamic rupture behaviour the rupture front propagation is calculated for incremental time steps based on the 2D Eikonal equation. The needed location-dependent rupture velocity field is assumed to scale linearly with a layered shear wave velocity field.
At each time all boundary elements enclosed within the rupture front are used to calculate the quasi-static slip distribution. Neither friction nor stress propagation are considered. Therefore the algorithm is assumed to be “quasi-static”. A series of the resulting quasi-static slip snapshots can be used as a quasi-dynamic model of the rupture process.
As many a priori information is used from the earth model (shear wave velocity and elastic parameters) and the moment tensor inversion (rupture extension and orientation) our model is depending on few free parameters as the traction field, the linear factor between rupture and shear wave velocity and the nucleation point and time. Hence stable and fast modeling results are obtained as proven from the comparison to different infinite and finite static crack solutions.
First dynamic applications show promissing results. The location-dependent rise time is automatically derived by the model. Different simple kinematic models as the slip-pulse or the penny-shaped crack model can be reproduced as well as their corresponding slip rate functions. A source time function (STF) approximation calculated from the cumulative sum of moment rates of each boundary element gives results similar to theoretical and empirical known STFs.
The model was also applied to the 2015 Illapel earthquake. Using a simple rectangular rupture geometry and a 2-layered traction regime yields good estimates of both the rupture front propagation and the slip patterns which are comparable to literature results. The STF approximation shows a good fit with previously published STFs.
The quasi-dynamic rupture model is hence able to fastly calculate reproducable slip results. That allows to test full Bayesian error analysis in the future. Further work on a full seismic source inversion or even a traction field inversion can also extend the scope of our model.
The Seismic Hazard Inferred from Tectonics based on the Global Strain Rate Map (SHIFT_GSRM) earthquake forecast was designed to provide high-resolution estimates of global shallow seismicity to be used in seismic hazard assessment. This model combines geodetic strain rates with global earthquake parameters to characterize long-term rates of seismic moment and earthquake activity. Although SHIFT_GSRM properly computes seismicity rates in seismically active continental regions, it underestimates earthquake rates in subduction zones by an average factor of approximately 3. We present a complementary method to SHIFT_GSRM to more accurately forecast earthquake rates in 37 subduction segments, based on the conservation of moment principle and the use of regional interface seismicity parameters, such as subduction dip angles, corner magnitudes, and coupled seismogenic thicknesses. In seven progressive steps, we find that SHIFT_GSRM earthquake-rate underpredictions are mainly due to the utilization of a global probability function of seismic moment release that poorly captures the great variability among subduction megathrust interfaces. Retrospective test results show that the forecast is consistent with the observations during the 1 January 1977 to 31 December 2014 period. Moreover, successful pseudoprospective evaluations for the 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2018 period demonstrate the power of the regionalized earthquake model to properly estimate subduction-zone seismicity.
Changes in the steepness of river profiles or abrupt vertical steps (i.e. waterfalls) are thought to be indicative of changes in erosion rates, lithology or other factors that affect landscape evolution. These changes are referred to as knickpoints or knickzones and are pervasive in bedrock river systems. Such features are thought to reveal information about landscape evolution and patterns of erosion, and therefore their locations are often reported in the geomorphic literature. It is imperative that studies reporting knickpoints and knickzones use a reproducible method of quantifying their locations, as their number and spatial distribution play an important role in interpreting tectonically active landscapes. In this contribution we introduce a reproducible knickpoint and knickzone extraction algorithm that uses river profiles transformed by integrating drainage area along channel length (the so-called integral or chi method). The profile is then statistically segmented and the differing slopes and step changes in the elevations of these segments are used to identify knickpoints, knickzones and their relative magnitudes. The output locations of identified knickpoints and knickzones compare favourably with human mapping: we test the method on Santa Cruz Island, CA, using previously reported knickzones and also test the method against a new dataset from the Quadrilatero Ferrifero in Brazil. The algorithm allows for the extraction of varying knickpoint morphologies, including stepped, positive slope-break (concave upward) and negative slope-break knickpoints. We identify parameters that most affect the resulting knickpoint and knickzone locations and provide guidance for both usage and outputs of the method to produce reproducible knickpoint datasets.
Solar wind observations show that geomagnetic storms are mainly driven by interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and corotating or stream interaction regions (C/SIRs). We present a binary classifier that assigns one of these drivers to 7,546 storms between 1930 and 2015 using ground‐based geomagnetic field observations only. The input data consists of the long‐term stable Hourly Magnetospheric Currents index alongside the corresponding midlatitude geomagnetic observatory time series. This data set provides comprehensive information on the global storm time magnetic disturbance field, particularly its spatial variability, over eight solar cycles. For the first time, we use this information statistically with regard to an automated storm driver identification. Our supervised classification model significantly outperforms unskilled baseline models (78% accuracy with 26[19]% misidentified interplanetary coronal mass ejections [corotating or stream interaction regions]) and delivers plausible driver occurrences with regard to storm intensity and solar cycle phase. Our results can readily be used to advance related studies fundamental to space weather research, for example, studies connecting galactic cosmic ray modulation and geomagnetic disturbances. They are fully reproducible by means of the underlying open‐source software (Pick, 2019, http://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.2.3.2019.003)
Solar wind observations show that geomagnetic storms are mainly driven by interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and corotating or stream interaction regions (C/SIRs). We present a binary classifier that assigns one of these drivers to 7,546 storms between 1930 and 2015 using ground‐based geomagnetic field observations only. The input data consists of the long‐term stable Hourly Magnetospheric Currents index alongside the corresponding midlatitude geomagnetic observatory time series. This data set provides comprehensive information on the global storm time magnetic disturbance field, particularly its spatial variability, over eight solar cycles. For the first time, we use this information statistically with regard to an automated storm driver identification. Our supervised classification model significantly outperforms unskilled baseline models (78% accuracy with 26[19]% misidentified interplanetary coronal mass ejections [corotating or stream interaction regions]) and delivers plausible driver occurrences with regard to storm intensity and solar cycle phase. Our results can readily be used to advance related studies fundamental to space weather research, for example, studies connecting galactic cosmic ray modulation and geomagnetic disturbances. They are fully reproducible by means of the underlying open‐source software (Pick, 2019, http://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.2.3.2019.003)
We present a new algorithm for solving the common problem of flow trapped in closed depressions within digital elevation models, as encountered in many applications relying on flow routing. Unlike other approaches (e.g., the Priority-Flood depression filling algorithm), this solution is based on the explicit computation of the flow paths both within and across the depressions through the construction of a graph connecting together all adjacent drainage basins. Although this represents many operations, a linear time complexity can be reached for the whole computation, making it very efficient. Compared to the most optimized solutions proposed so far, we show that this algorithm of flow path enforcement yields the best performance when used in landscape evolution models. In addition to its efficiency, our proposed method also has the advantage of letting the user choose among different strategies of flow path enforcement within the depressions (i.e., filling vs. carving). Furthermore, the computed graph of basins is a generic structure that has the potential to be reused for solving other problems as well, such as the simulation of erosion. This sequential algorithm may be helpful for those who need to, e.g., process digital elevation models of moderate size on single computers or run batches of simulations as part of an inference study.
Vermetid reefs and rocky shores are hot spots of biodiversity, often referred to as the subtropical equivalent of coral reefs. The development of the ecosystem depends on the activity of several reef builders, including red crustose coralline algae (CCA) such as Neogoniolithon brassica-florida. Despite its importance, little is known about Neogoniolithon sp. acclimation to rapid changes in light intensity and corresponding photosynthetic activity. To overcome the large spatial variability in the light field (due to location and the porous nature of the rocks) we grew Neogoniolithon sp. on glass slides and characterized its photosynthetic performance in response to various light intensities by following O-2 exchange and fluorescence parameters. This was also performed on rock-inhabiting thalli collected from the east Mediterranean basin. Generally, maximal photosynthetic rate was reached when Neogoniolithon sp. thalli grown under low illumination (such as in protected niches where the light intensity can be as low as 1% of surface illumination) were examined. When exposed to light intensities higher than those experienced during growth, Neogoniolithon sp. activates adaptive/protective mechanisms such as state transition and nonphotochemical fluorescence quenching and increases the dark respiration thereafter. We find that the Fv/Fm parameter (variable/maximal fluorescence) is not suitable to assess photosynthetic performance in Neogoniolithon sp. and propose using instead an alternative parameter recently developed. Our findings help to clarify why Neogoniolithon sp. is usually observed in shaded niches along the reef surfaces.
Forest structure is a crucial component in the assessment of whether a forest is likely to act as a carbon sink under changing climate. Detailed 3D structural information about the tundra–taiga ecotone of Siberia is mostly missing and still underrepresented in current research due to the remoteness and restricted accessibility. Field based, high-resolution remote sensing can provide important knowledge for the understanding of vegetation properties and dynamics. In this study, we test the applicability of consumer-grade Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for rapid calculation of stand metrics in treeline forests. We reconstructed high-resolution photogrammetric point clouds and derived canopy height models for 10 study sites from NE Chukotka and SW Yakutia. Subsequently, we detected individual tree tops using a variable-window size local maximum filter and applied a marker-controlled watershed segmentation for the delineation of tree crowns. With this, we successfully detected 67.1% of the validation individuals. Simple linear regressions of observed and detected metrics show a better correlation (R2) and lower relative root mean square percentage error (RMSE%) for tree heights (mean R2 = 0.77, mean RMSE% = 18.46%) than for crown diameters (mean R2 = 0.46, mean RMSE% = 24.9%). The comparison between detected and observed tree height distributions revealed that our tree detection method was unable to representatively identify trees <2 m. Our results show that plot sizes for vegetation surveys in the tundra–taiga ecotone should be adapted to the forest structure and have a radius of >15–20 m to capture homogeneous and representative forest stands. Additionally, we identify sources of omission and commission errors and give recommendations for their mitigation. In summary, the efficiency of the used method depends on the complexity of the forest’s stand structure.
Forest structure is a crucial component in the assessment of whether a forest is likely to act as a carbon sink under changing climate. Detailed 3D structural information about the tundra–taiga ecotone of Siberia is mostly missing and still underrepresented in current research due to the remoteness and restricted accessibility. Field based, high-resolution remote sensing can provide important knowledge for the understanding of vegetation properties and dynamics. In this study, we test the applicability of consumer-grade Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for rapid calculation of stand metrics in treeline forests. We reconstructed high-resolution photogrammetric point clouds and derived canopy height models for 10 study sites from NE Chukotka and SW Yakutia. Subsequently, we detected individual tree tops using a variable-window size local maximum filter and applied a marker-controlled watershed segmentation for the delineation of tree crowns. With this, we successfully detected 67.1% of the validation individuals. Simple linear regressions of observed and detected metrics show a better correlation (R2) and lower relative root mean square percentage error (RMSE%) for tree heights (mean R2 = 0.77, mean RMSE% = 18.46%) than for crown diameters (mean R2 = 0.46, mean RMSE% = 24.9%). The comparison between detected and observed tree height distributions revealed that our tree detection method was unable to representatively identify trees <2 m. Our results show that plot sizes for vegetation surveys in the tundra–taiga ecotone should be adapted to the forest structure and have a radius of >15–20 m to capture homogeneous and representative forest stands. Additionally, we identify sources of omission and commission errors and give recommendations for their mitigation. In summary, the efficiency of the used method depends on the complexity of the forest’s stand structure.
In Magnetotellurics (MT) natural electromagnetic field variations are recorded to study the electrical conductivity structure of the subsurface. Thereby long time-series of electromagnetic data are subdivided into smaller segments, which are Fourier transformed and typically averaged in a statistically robust manner to obtain MT transfer functions. Unfortunately, nowadays the presence of man-made electromagnetic noise sources often deteriorates a significant fraction of the recorded time-series by overprinting the desired natural field variations. Available approaches to obtain undisturbed and high quality MT results include, for example robust statistics, remote reference or multi-station analyses which aim at the removal of outliers or uncorrelated noise. However, we have observed that intermittent noise often affects a certain time span resulting in a second cluster of transfer functions in addition to the expected true MT distribution. In this paper, we present a novel criterion for the detection and pre-selection of EM noise in form of outliers or additional clusters based on a distance measure of each data segment with regard to the centre of the data distribution. For this purpose, we utilize the Mahalanobis distance (MD) which computes the distance between two multivariate points considering the covariance matrix of the data that quantifies the shape and the size of multivariate data distributions. As the MD considers the covariance matrix, it corrects not only for different variances but also for any correlation between the data. The computation of both, the mean value and covariance matrix, is susceptible to ouliers (e.g. noise) and requires a statistically robust estimation. We tested several robust estimators, for example median absolute deviation or minimum covariance determinant algorithm and finally implemented an automatic criterion using a deterministic minimum covariance determinant algorithm. We will present results using MT data from various field experiments all over the world, which illustrate successfull data improvement. This approach is able to remove scattered data points as well as to reject complete data cluster originating from noise sources. However, like all purely statistical algorithms the criterion is limited to cases where the majority of the recorded data is well-behaved, that is noise content is below 50 per cent. If the majority of data points originates from noise sources, the new criterion will fail if used in an automatic way. In these cases, additional input by the user either manually or in an automated fashion can be utilized. We therefore suggest to use an add-on criterion to back the MD selection and subsequent robust stacking in form of a physically motivated constraint based on the magnetic incidence direction. This property indicates whether the magnetic field originates from various sources in the far field or from a strong and well defined source in the near field.
The intangible impacts of floods on welfare are not well investigated, even though they are important aspects of welfare. Moreover, flooding has gender based impacts on welfare. These differing impacts create a gender based flood risk resilience gap. We study the intangible impacts of flood risk on the subjective well-being of residents in central Vietnam. The measurement of intangible impacts through subjective well-being is a growing field within flood risk research. We find an initial drop in welfare through subjective well-being across genders when a flood is experienced. Male respondents tended to recover their welfare losses by around 80% within 5 years while female respondents were associated with a welfare recovery of around 70%. A monetization of the impacts floods have on an individual’s subjective well-being shows that for the average female respondent, between 41% to 86% of annual income would be required to compensate subjective well-being losses after 5 years of experiencing a flood. The corresponding value for males is 30% to 57% of annual income. This shows that the intangible impacts of flood risk are important (across genders) and need to be integrated into flood (or climate) risk assessments to develop more socially appropriate risk management strategies.
An Overview of Using Weather Radar for Climatological Studies: Successes, Challenges, and Potential
(2019)
Weather radars have been widely used to detect and quantify precipitation and nowcast severe weather for more than 50 years. Operational weather radars generate huge three-dimensional datasets that can accumulate to terabytes per day. So it is essential to review what can be done with existing vast amounts of data, and how we should manage the present datasets for the future climatologists. All weather radars provide the reflectivity factor, and this is the main parameter to be archived. Saving reflectivity as volumetric data in the original spherical coordinates allows for studies of the three-dimensional structure of precipitation, which can be applied to understand a number of processes, for example, analyzing hail or thunderstorm modes. Doppler velocity and polarimetric moments also have numerous applications for climate studies, for example, quality improvement of reflectivity and rain rate retrievals, and for interrogating microphysical and dynamical processes. However, observational data alone are not useful if they are not accompanied by sufficient metadata. Since the lifetime of a radar ranges between 10 and 20 years, instruments are typically replaced or upgraded during climatologically relevant time periods. As a result, present metadata often do not apply to past data. This paper outlines the work of the Radar Task Team set by the Atmospheric Observation Panel for Climate (AOPC) and summarizes results from a recent survey on the existence and availability of long time series. We also provide recommendations for archiving current and future data and examples of climatological studies in which radar data have already been used.
Preparatory mechanisms accompanying or leading to nucleation of larger earthquakes have been observed at both laboratory and field scales, but conditions favoring the occurrence of observable preparatory processes are still largely unknown. In particular, it remains a matter of debate why some earthquakes occur spontaneously without noticeable precursors as opposed to events that are preceded by an extended failure process. In this study, we have generated new high-resolution seismicity catalogs framing the occurrence of 20 M-L > 2.5 earthquakes at The Geysers geothermal field in California. To this end, a seismicity catalog of the 11 days framing each large event was created. We selected 20 sequences sampling different hypocentral depths and hydraulic conditions within the field. Seismic activity and magnitude frequency distributions displayed by the different earthquake sequences are correlated with their location within the reservoir. Sequences located in the northwestern part of the reservoir show overall increased seismic activity and low b values, while the southeastern part is dominated by decreased seismic activity and higher b values. Periods of high injection coincide with high b values and vice versa. These observations potentially reflect varying differential and mean stresses and damage of the reservoir rocks across the field. About 50% of analyzed sequences exhibit no change in seismicity rate in response to the large main event. However, we find complex waveforms at the onset of the main earthquake, suggesting that small ruptures spontaneously grow into or trigger larger events.
The advances in modern geodetic techniques such as the global navigation satellite system (GNSS) and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) provide surface deformation measurements with an unprecedented accuracy and temporal and spatial resolutions even at most remote volcanoes on Earth. Modelling of the high-quality geodetic data is crucial for understanding the underlying physics of volcano deformation processes. Among various approaches, mathematical models are the most effective for establishing a quantitative link between the surface displacements and the shape and strength of deformation sources. Advancing the geodetic data analyses and hence, the knowledge on the Earth’s interior processes, demands sophisticated and efficient deformation modelling approaches. Yet the majority of these models rely on simplistic assumptions for deformation source geometries and ignore complexities such as the Earth’s surface topography and interactions between multiple sources.
This thesis addresses this problem in the context of analytical and numerical volcano deformation modelling. In the first part, new analytical solutions for triangular dislocations (TDs) in uniform infinite and semi-infinite elastic media have been developed. Through a comprehensive investigation, the locations and causes of artefact singularities and numerical instabilities associated with TDs have been determined and these long-standing drawbacks have been addressed thoroughly. This approach has then been extended to rectangular dislocations (RDs) with full rotational degrees of freedom. Using this solution in a configuration of three orthogonal RDs a compound dislocation model (CDM) has been developed. The CDM can represent generalized volumetric and planar deformation sources efficiently. Thus, the CDM is relevant for rapid inversions in early warning systems and can also be used for detailed deformation analyses. In order to account for complex source geometries and realistic topography in the deformation models, in this thesis the boundary element method (BEM) has been applied to the new solutions for TDs. In this scheme, complex surfaces are simulated as a continuous mesh of TDs that may possess any displacement or stress boundary conditions in the BEM calculations. In the second part of this thesis, the developed modelling techniques have been applied to five different real-world deformation scenarios. As the first and second case studies the deformation sources associated with the 2015 Calbuco eruption and 2013–2016 Copahue inflation period have been constrained by using the CDM. The highly anisotropic source geometries in these two cases highlight the importance of using generalized deformation models such as the CDM, for geodetic data inversions. The other three case studies in this thesis involve high-resolution dislocation models and BEM calculations. As the third case, the 2013 pre-explosive inflation of Volcán de Colima has been simulated by using two ellipsoidal cavities, which locate zones of pressurization in the volcano’s lava dome. The fourth case study, which serves as an example for volcanotectonics interactions, the 3-D kinematics of an active ring-fault at Tendürek volcano has been investigated through modelling displacement time series over the 2003–2010 time period. As the fifth example, the deformation sources associated with North Korea’s underground nuclear test in September 2017 have been constrained. These examples demonstrate the advancement and increasing level of complexity and the general applicability of the developed dislocation modelling techniques.
This thesis establishes a unified framework for rapid and high-resolution dislocation modelling, which in addition to volcano deformations can also be applied to tectonic and humanmade deformations.
Der Porenraum eines Karbonatgesteins ist zumeist aus einer spezifischen Vergesellschaftung verschiedenster Porentypen aufgebaut, die eine unterschiedliche Herkunft aufweisen und zusätzlich in ihrer Form und Größe stark variieren können (e.g., Melim et al., 2001; Lee et al., 2009; He et al., 2014; Dernaika & Sinclair, 2017; Zhang et al., 2017). Diese für Karbonate typischen multimodalen Porensysteme entstehen sowohl durch primäre Ablagerungsprozesse, als auch durch mehrmalige Modifikation des Porenraumes nach Ablagerung des Sediments. Dies führt zu einer ungleichen Verteilung der Porenraumeigenschaften auf engstem Raum und das zeitgleiche Auftreten von effektiven und ineffektiven Poren. Diese immanenten Unterschiede in der Effektivität einzelner Porentypen sind der Hauptgrund für die häufig sehr niedrige Korellation zwischen Porosität und Permeabilität in Karbonaten (e.g., Mazzullo 2004; Ehrenberg & Nadeau, 2005; Hollis et al., 2010; He et al., 2014; Rashid et al., 2015; Dernaika & Sinclair, 2017). Durch die Extraktion von miteinander verbundenen und somit effektiven Porentypen jedoch kann das Verständnis und die Vorhersage der Permeabilität für einen gegeben Porositätswert stark verbessert werden (e.g., Melim et al., 2001; Zhang et al., 2017). Dazu wird in dieser Arbeit eine auf der digitalen Bildanalyse (DIA) beruhende Methode vorgestellt, mit der schrittweise die Effektivität von Poren aus den analysierten mittelmiozänen lakustrinen Karbonaten des Nördlinger Ries Kratersees (Süddeutschland) berechnet werden kann. Mithilfe des Porenformfaktors (sensu Anselmetti et al., 1998), der als Parameter zur Quantifizierung der Interkonnektivität zwischen Poren dient, wird der potentiellen Beitrag an Permeabilität jedes Porentyps zur Gesamtpermeabilität bestimmt. Somit können die effektivsten Porentypen innerhalb der analysierten Karbonate identifiziert werden. Desweiteren wird die digitale Bildanalyse dazu benutzt, zementierte Porenräume zu extrahieren, um den Einfluss der Zementation auf die Porenraumeigenschaften zu quantifizieren. Durch eine unabhängige Methode (Fluid-Flow-Simulation), deren Ergebnisse wiederum mit der digitalen Bildanalyse ausgewertet werden, können die vorherigen Erkentnisse bestätigt werden: Interpeloidale Poren und Lösungsporen sind die beiden effektivsten Porentypen im Porenraum der Riesseekarbonate. Die Extraktion des miteinander verbundenen (d.h. effektiven) Porennetzwerkes führt schließlich zu einer erheblich verbesserten Korrelation zwischen Porosität und Permeabilität in den analysierten Karbonaten. Die in dieser Arbeit beschriebene Methode bietet ein quantitatives petrographisches Werkzeug, mit dessen Hilfe die effektive Porosität eines Porenraumes extrahiert werden kann. Dies führt zu einem besseren Verständnis darüber, wie Porensysteme von Karbonaten Permeabilität erzeugen. Diese Dissertation zeigt auch, dass die Formkomplexität von Poren einer der wichtigsten Parameter ist, der die Interkonnektivität zwischen einzelnen Poren und somit die Entstehung von effektiver Porosität steuert. Außerdem erweist sich die digitale Bildanalyse als ausgezeichnetes Werkzeug um die Porosität und Permeabilität direkt an ihren gemeinsamen Ursprung zu knüpfen: die Gesteinstextur und die damit assoziierte Porenstruktur.
We investigate the inclusions hosted in peritectic garnet from metapelitic migmatites of the Kinzigite Formation (Ivrea Zone, NW Italy) to evaluate the starting composition of the anatectic melt and fluid regime during anatexis throughout the upper amphibolite facies, transition, and granulite facies zones. Inclusions have negative crystal shapes, sizes from 2 to 10 mu m and are regularly distributed in the core of the garnet. Microstructural and micro-Raman investigations indicate the presence of two types of inclusions: crystallized silicate melt inclusions (i.e., nanogranitoids, NI), and fluid inclusions (FI). Microstructural evidence suggests that FI and NI coexist in the same cluster and are primary (i.e., were trapped simultaneously during garnet growth). FI have similar compositions in the three zones and comprise variable proportions of CO2, CH4, and N-2, commonly with siderite, pyrophyllite, and kaolinite, suggesting a COHN composition of the trapped fluid. The mineral assemblage in the NI contains K-feldspar, plagioclase, quartz, biotite, muscovite, chlorite, graphite and, rarely, calcite. Polymorphs such as kumdykolite, cristobalite, tridymite, and less commonly kokchetavite, were also found. Rehomogenized NI from the different zones show that all the melts are leucogranitic but have slightly different compositions. In samples from the upper amphibolite facies, melts are less mafic (FeO + MgO = 2.0-3.4 wt%), contain 860-1700 ppm CO2 and reach the highest H2O contents (6.5-10 wt%). In the transition zone melts have intermediate H2O (4.8-8.5 wt%), CO2 (457-1534 ppm) and maficity (FeO + MgO = 2.3-3.9 wt%). In contrast, melts at granulite facies reach highest CaO, FeO + MgO (3.2-4.7 wt%), and CO2 (up to 2,400 ppm), with H2O contents comparable (5.4-8.3 wt%) to the other two zones. Our results represent the first clear evidence for carbonic fluid-present melting in the Ivrea Zone. Anatexis of metapelites occurred through muscovite and biotite breakdown melting in the presence of a COH fluid, in a situation of fluid-melt immiscibility. The fluid is assumed to have been internally derived, produced initially by devolatilization of hydrous silicates in the graphitic protolith, then as a result of oxidation of carbon by consumption of Fe3+-bearing biotite during melting. Variations in the compositions of the melts are interpreted to result from higher T of melting. The H2O contents of the melts throughout the three zones are higher than usually assumed for initial H2O contents of anatectic melts. The CO2 contents are highest at granulite facies, and show that carbon-contents of crustal magmas are not negligible at high T. The activity of H2O of the fluid dissolved in granitic melts decreases with increasing metamorphic grade. Carbonic fluid-present melting of the deep continental crust represents, together with hydrate-breakdown melting reactions, an important process in the origin of crustal anatectic granitoids.
Arboreal epiphytes (plants residing in forest canopies) are present across all major climate zones and play important roles in forest biogeochemistry. The substantial water storage capacity per unit area of the epiphyte "bucket" is a key attribute underlying their capability to influence forest hydrological processes and their related mass and energy flows. It is commonly assumed that the epiphyte bucket remains saturated, or near-saturated, most of the time; thus, epiphytes (particularly vascular epiphytes) can store little precipitation, limiting their impact on the forest canopy water budget. We present evidence that contradicts this common assumption from (i) an examination of past research; (ii) new datasets on vascular epiphyte and epi-soil water relations at a tropical montane cloud forest (Monteverde, Costa Rica); and (iii) a global evaluation of non-vascular epiphyte saturation state using a process-based vegetation model, LiBry. All analyses found that the external and internal water storage capacity of epiphyte communities is highly dynamic and frequently available to intercept precipitation. Globally, non-vascular epiphytes spend <20% of their time near saturation and regionally, including the humid tropics, model results found that non-vascular epiphytes spend similar to 1/3 of their time in the dry state (0-10% of water storage capacity). Even data from Costa Rican cloud forest sites found the epiphyte community was saturated only 1/3 of the time and that internal leaf water storage was temporally dynamic enough to aid in precipitation interception. Analysis of the epi-soils associated with epiphytes further revealed the extent to which the epiphyte bucket emptied-as even the canopy soils were often <50% saturated (29-53% of all days observed). Results clearly show that the epiphyte bucket is more dynamic than currently assumed, meriting further research on epiphyte roles in precipitation interception, redistribution to the surface and chemical composition of "net" precipitation waters reaching the surface.
The occurrence of mounds dominated by siliceous sponges and microbialites is often related to distal, deep settings of middle ramps and shelves. This paper presents evidence for Bajocian (Garanliana garantiana Zone) microbial-siliceous sponge mounds formed in open marine but relatively shallow settings of a ramp from the Iberian Basin of eastern Spain. Marked differences in mound spacing, morphology, and composition of the related intermound facies are observed from distal to more proximal settings. The distal (below storm wave base) settings are characterized by alternating tabular-bedded marls and limestones rich in pelagic fossils (ammonites, belemnites), open-marine thin-shelled bivalves (Bositra-like), as well as peloids, which include widely or randomly spaced isolated, small (up to 0.4 m high) and larger (up to 2.5 m high) mounds with upward accretion. The intermediate (near to above storm wave base) settings show tabular, thickened beds of peloidal and/or intraclastic limestones with closely spaced mounds (similar to 1 m high), which often coalesce laterally, forming extensive lenticular structures (up to 10 m wide). The proximal (above storm wave base) depositional settings consist of tabular to irregular beds of intraclastic limestones with widely spaced small (up to 0.4 m high) mounds with mainly tabular geometries. The mound framework contains variable proportions of microbialites (dense to clotted peloidal thrombolitic fabrics) and siliceous sponges (hexactinellids and lithistids in similar proportion) ranging from planar to conic shapes. These morphological and compositional changes allow characterizing three shallowing-upward sequences (sequences 1-3) developed in the overall regressive trend of a basin-wide, upper Bajocian T-R cycle. Episodic wave reworking of the early-cemented mounds resulted in the formation of peloids, small rounded intraclasts, and large, rounded or subangular intraclasts. These nonskeletal micritic grains show internal fabrics related to those of the mound and/or microbialites. A progressive textural gradation towards greater size and lesser roundness of the nonskeletal grains in the areas in the vicinity of the main mound factory is documented (i.e., from large, subangular intraclasts in the areas close to the main mound factory to peloids in the areas that are far from it). We discuss the alternative model of internal waves (instead of storm-induced waves) as the hydrodynamic agent providing the high-energy events needed to explain the origin of the peloidal-intraclastic intermound facies and, likely, also the nutrients needed by the microbialites and siliceous sponges to grow.
In Germany, the irrigation sector accounts for only 1% of water use. In recent years, however, this sector has attracted more attention due to the occurrence of severe drought periods. Irrigation scheduling systems could support adaptation strategies but little is known about current providers, performance and users. In this study we aimed to depict the current situation of the existence and functioning of irrigation scheduling systems available in Germany. Six methods were identified and assessed based on direct interviews with end-users and a comparative analysis. The results showed a positive feedback from the users. However, the recommendations were rarely implemented, while only the seasonal irrigation requirement was considered to support actual water abstraction. These results were corroborated by the comparative analysis. Five of the six irrigation scheduling systems estimated the seasonal irrigation amount consistently, while wider differences were found by looking at the irrigation season and at the number of irrigations. Overall, it is found that irrigation support systems are valuable tools for supporting adaptation strategies to fast changes in agro-environmental conditions. However, specific assessments based on real measurements should be considered in order to improve the performance of the systems and provide more consistent support to end-users. (c) 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
High spectral resolution (hyperspectral) remote sensing has already demonstrated its capabilities for soil constituent mapping based on absorption feature parameters. This paper tests different parametrizations of the 1.75 μm gypsum feature for the determination of gypsum abundances, from the laboratory to remote sensing applications of recent as well as upcoming hyperspectral sensors. In particular, this study focuses on remote sensing imagery over the large body of the Omongwa pan located in the Namibian Kalahari. Four common absorption feature parameters are compared: band ratio through the introduction of the Normalized Differenced Gypsum Index (NDGI), the shape-based parameters Slope, and Half-Area, and the Continuum Removed Absorption Depth (CRAD). On laboratory soil samples from the pan, CRAD and NDGI approaches perform best to determine gypsum content tested in cross validated regression models with XRD mineralogical data (R² = 0.84 for NDGI and R² = 0.86 for CRAD). Subsequently the laboratory prediction functions are transferred to remote sensing imagery of spaceborne Hyperion, airborne HySpex and simulated spaceborne EnMAP sensor. Variable results were obtained depending on sensor characteristics, data quality, preprocessing and spectral parameters. Overall, the CRAD parameter in this wavelength region proved not to be robust for remote sensing applications, and the simple band ratio based parameter, the NDGI, proved robust and is recommended for future use for the determination of gypsum content in bare soils based on remote sensing hyperspectral imagery.
Water fluxes in highly impounded regions are heavily dependent on reservoir properties. However, for large and remote areas, this information is often unavailable. In this study, the geometry and volume of small surface reservoirs in the semi-arid region of Brazil were estimated using terrain and shape attributes extracted by remote sensing. Regression models and data classification were used to predict the volumes, at different water stages, of 312 reservoirs for which topographic information is available. The power function used to describe the reservoir shapes tends to overestimate the volumes; therefore, a modified shape equation was proposed. Among the methods tested, four were recommended based on performance and simplicity, for which the mean absolute percentage errors varied from 24 to 39%, in contrast to the 94% error achieved with the traditional method. Despite the challenge of precisely deriving the flooded areas of reservoirs, water management in highly reservoir-dense environments should benefit from volume prediction based on remote sensing.
As a consequence of the rapid growing worldwide seismic data set, a huge variety of automatized data-processing methods have been developed. To perform automatized waveform-based seismological studies aiming for magnitudes or source process inversion, it is crucial to identify network stations with erroneous transfer functions, gain factors, or component orientations. We developed a new tool dedicated to automated station quality control of dense seismic networks and arrays. The python-based AutoStatsQ toolbox uses the pyrocko seismic data-processing environment. The toolbox automatically downloads data and metadata for selected teleseismic events and performs different tests. As a result, relative gain factors, sensor orientation corrections, and reliable frequency bands are computed for all stations in a chosen time period. Relative gain factors are calculated for all stations and events in a time domain based on maximum P-phase amplitudes. A Rayleigh-wave polarization analysis is used to identify deviating sensor orientations. The power spectra of all stations in a given frequency range are compared with synthetic ones, accessing Global Centroid Moment Tensor (CMT) solutions. Frequency ranges of coinciding synthetic and recorded power spectral densities (PSDs) may serve as guidelines for choosing band-pass filters for moment tensor (MT) inversion and help confirm the corner frequency of the instrument. The toolbox was applied to the permanent and temporary AlpArray networks as well as to the denser SWATH-D network, a total of over 750 stations. Stations with significantly deviating gain factors were identified, as well as stations with inverse polarity and misorientations of the horizontal components. The tool can be used to quickly access network quality and to omit or correct stations before MT inversion. Electronic Supplement: List of teleseismic events and tables of median, mean, and standard deviation of relative gain factors, and figures of relative gain factors of all event-station pairs, waveform example showing inverse polarity of horizontal components on ZS.D125, histograms of median, mean, and standard deviation of the correction angles, examples of synthetic and recorded frequency spectra of ZS.D046 and NI.VINO.
Quantifying erosion rates, and how they compare to rock uplift rates, is fundamental for understanding landscape response to tectonics and associated sediment fluxes from upland areas. The erosional response to uplift is well-represented by river incision and the associated landslide activity. However, characterising the relationship between these processes remains a major challenge in tectonically active areas, in some cases because landslides can preclude obtaining reliable erosion rates from cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) concentrations. Here, we quantify the control of tectonics and its coupled geomorphic response on the erosion rates of catchments in southern Italy that are experiencing a transient response to normal faulting. We analyse in-situ Be-10 concentrations for detrital sediment samples, collected along the strike of faults with excellent tectonic constraints and landslide inventories. We demonstrate that Be-10-derived erosion rates are controlled by fault throw rates and the extent of transient incision and associated landsliding in the catchments. We show that the low-relief sub-catchments above knickpoints erode at uniform background rates of similar to 0.10 mm/yr, while downstream of knickpoints, erosion removes similar to 50% of the rock uplifted by the faults, at rates of 0.10-0.64 mm/yr. Despite widespread landsliding, CRN samples provide relatively consistent and accurate erosion rates, most likely because landslides are frequent, small, and shallow, and represent the integrated record of landsliding over several seismic cycles. Consequently, we combine these validated Be-10 erosion rates and data from a geomorphological landslide inventory in a published numerical model, to gain further insight into the long-term landslide rates and sediment mixing, highlighting the potential of CRN data to study landslide dynamics. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Breakup Without Borders
(2019)
Relative plate motions during continental rifting result from the interplay of local with far-field forces. Here we study the dynamics of rifting and breakup using large-scale numerical simulations of mantle convection with self-consistent evolution of plate boundaries. We show that continental separation follows a characteristic evolution with four distinctive phases: (1) an initial slow rifting phase with low divergence velocities and maximum tensional stresses, (2) a synrift speed-up phase featuring an abrupt increase of extension rate with a simultaneous drop of tensional stress, (3) the breakup phase with inception of fast sea-floor spreading, and (4) a deceleration phase occurring in most but not all models where extensional velocities decrease. We find that the speed-up during rifting is compensated by subduction acceleration or subduction initiation even in distant localities. Our study illustrates new links between local rift dynamics, plate motions, and subduction kinematics during times of continental separation.
Convergence between the Indian and Asian plates has reshaped large parts of Asia, changing regional climate and biodiversity, yet geodynamic models fundamentally diverge on how convergence was accommodated since the India-Asia collision. Here we report palaeomagnetic data from the Burma Terrane, which is at the eastern edge of the collision zone and is famous for its Cretaceous amber biota, to better determine the evolution of the India-Asia collision. The Burma Terrane was part of a Trans-Tethyan island arc and stood at a near-equatorial southern latitude at similar to 95 Ma, suggesting island endemism for the Burmese amber biota. The Burma Terrane underwent significant clockwise rotation between similar to 80 and 50 Ma, causing its subduction margin to become hyper-oblique. Subsequently, it was translated northward on the Indian Plate by an exceptional distance of at least 2,000 km along a dextral strike-slip fault system in the east. Our reconstructions are only compatible with geodynamic models involving an initial collision of India with a near-equatorial Trans-Tethyan subduction system at similar to 60 Ma, followed by a later collision with the Asian margin.
A proper assessment of seismic reference site conditions has important applications as they represent the basis on which ground motions and amplifications are generally computed. Besides accounting for the average S-wave velocity over the uppermost 30 m (V-S30), the parameterization of high-frequency ground motions beyond source-corner frequency received significant attention. kappa, an empirical parameter introduced by Anderson and Hough (1984), is often used to represent the spectral decay of the acceleration spectrum at high frequencies. The lack of hard-rock records and the poor understanding of the physics of kappa introduced significant epistemic uncertainty in the final seismic hazard of recent projects. Thus, determining precise and accurate regional hard-rock kappa(0) values is critical. We propose an alternative procedure for capturing the reference kappa(0) on regional scales by linking thewell-known high-frequency attenuation parameter kappa and the properties of multiple-scattered coda waves. Using geological and geophysical data around more than 1300 stations for separating reference and soft soil sites and based on more than 10,000 crustal earthquake recordings, we observe that kappa(0) from multiple-scattered coda waves seems to be independent of the soil type but correlated with the hard-rock kappa(0), showing significant regional variations across Europe. The values range between 0.004 s for northern Europe and 0.020 s for the southern and southeastern parts. On the other hand, measuring kappa (and correspondingly kappa(0)) on the S-wave window (as classically proposed), the results are strongly affected by transmitted (reflected, refracted, and scattered) waves included in the analyzed window biasing the proper assessment of kappa(0). This effect is more pronounced for soft soil sites. In this way, kappa(coda)(0) can serve as a proxy for the regional hard-rock kappa(0) at the reference sites.
A wide variety of processes controls the time of occurrence, duration, extent, and severity of river floods. Classifying flood events by their causative processes may assist in enhancing the accuracy of local and regional flood frequency estimates and support the detection and interpretation of any changes in flood occurrence and magnitudes. This paper provides a critical review of existing causative classifications of instrumental and preinstrumental series of flood events, discusses their validity and applications, and identifies opportunities for moving toward more comprehensive approaches. So far no unified definition of causative mechanisms of flood events exists. Existing frameworks for classification of instrumental and preinstrumental series of flood events adopt different perspectives: hydroclimatic (large-scale circulation patterns and atmospheric state at the time of the event), hydrological (catchment scale precipitation patterns and antecedent catchment state), and hydrograph-based (indirectly considering generating mechanisms through their effects on hydrograph characteristics). All of these approaches intend to capture the flood generating mechanisms and are useful for characterizing the flood processes at various spatial and temporal scales. However, uncertainty analyses with respect to indicators, classification methods, and data to assess the robustness of the classification are rarely performed which limits the transferability across different geographic regions. It is argued that more rigorous testing is needed. There are opportunities for extending classification methods to include indicators of space-time dynamics of rainfall, antecedent wetness, and routing effects, which will make the classification schemes even more useful for understanding and estimating floods. This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Water Extremes Science of Water > Hydrological Processes Science of Water > Methods
The establishment and evolution of the Asian monsoons and arid interior have been linked to uplift of the Tibetan Plateau, retreat of the inland proto-Paratethys Sea and global cooling during the Cenozoic. However, the respective role of these driving mechanisms remains poorly constrained. This is partly due to a lack of continental records covering the key Eocene epoch marked by the onset of Tibetan Plateau uplift, proto-Paratethys Sea incursions and long-term global cooling. In this study, we reconstruct paleoenvironments in the Xining Basin, NE Tibet, to show a long-term drying of the Asian continental interior from the early Eocene to the Oligocene. Superimposed on this trend are three alternations between arid mudflat and wetter saline lake intervals, which are interpreted to reflect atmospheric moisture fluctuations in the basin. We date these fluctuations using magnetostratigraphy and the radiometric age of an intercalated tuff layer. The first saline lake interval is tentatively constrained to the late Paleocene-early Eocene. The other two are firmly dated between similar to 46 Ma (top magnetochron C21n) and similar to 41 Ma (base C18r) and between similar to 40 Ma (base C18n) and similar to 37 Ma (top C17n). Remarkably, these phases correlate in time with highstands of the proto-Paratethys Sea. This strongly suggests that these sea incursions enhanced westerly moisture supply as far inland as the Xining Basin. We conclude that the proto-Paratethys Sea constituted a key driver of Asian climate and should be considered in model and proxy interpretations. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Permafrost thaw subjects previously frozen soil organic carbon (SOC) to microbial degradation to the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). Emission of these gases constitutes a positive feedback to climate warming. Among numerous uncertainties in estimating the strength of this permafrost carbon feedback (PCF), two are: (i) how mineralization of permafrost SOC thawed in saturated anaerobic conditions responds to changes in temperature and (ii) how microbial communities and temperature sensitivities change over time since thaw. To address these uncertainties, we utilized a thermokarst-lake sediment core as a natural chronosequence where SOC thawed and incubated in situ under saturated anaerobic conditions for up to 400 years following permafrost thaw. Initial microbial communities were characterized, and sediments were anaerobically incubated in the lab at four temperatures (0 °C, 3 °C, 10 °C, and 25 °C) bracketing those observed in the lake's talik. Net CH4 production in freshly-thawed sediments near the downward-expanding thaw boundary at the base of the talik were most sensitive to warming at the lower incubation temperatures (0 °C to 3 °C), while the overlying sediments which had been thawed for centuries had initial low abundant methanogenic communities (< 0.02%) and did not experience statistically significant increases in net CH4 production potentials until higher incubation temperatures (10 °C to 25 °C). We propose these observed differences in temperature sensitivities are due to differences in SOM quality and functional microbial community composition that evolve over time; however further research is necessary to better constrain the roles of these factors in determining temperature controls on anaerobic C mineralization.
Floods are among the most costly natural hazards that affect Europe and Germany, demanding a continuous adaptation of flood risk management. While social and economic development in recent years altered the flood risk patterns mainly with regard to an increase in flood exposure, different flood events are further expected to increase in frequency and severity in certain European regions due to climate change. As a result of recent major flood events in Germany, the German flood risk management shifted to more integrated approaches that include private precaution and preparation to reduce the damage on exposed assets. Yet, detailed insights into the preparedness decisions of flood-prone households remain scarce, especially in connection to mental impacts and individual coping strategies after being affected by different flood types.
This thesis aims to gain insights into flash floods as a costly hazard in certain German regions and compares the damage driving factors to the damage driving factors of river floods. Furthermore, psychological impacts as well as the effects on coping and mitigation behaviour of flood-affected households are assessed. In this context, psychological models such as the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) and methods such as regressions and Bayesian statistics are used to evaluate influencing factors on the mental coping after an event and to identify psychological variables that are connected to intended private flood mitigation. The database consists of surveys that were conducted among affected households after major river floods in 2013 and flash floods in 2016.
The main conclusions that can be drawn from this thesis reveal that the damage patterns and damage driving factors of strong flash floods differ significantly from those of river floods due to a rapid flow origination process, higher flow velocities and flow forces. However, the effects on mental coping of people that have been affected by flood events appear to be weakly influenced by different flood types, but yet show a coherence to the event severity, where often thinking of the respective event is pronounced and also connected to a higher mitigation motivation. The mental coping and preparation after floods is further influenced by a good information provision and a social environment, which encourages a positive attitude towards private mitigation.
As an overall recommendation, approaches for an integrated flood risk management in Germany should be followed that also take flash floods into account and consider psychological characteristics of affected households to support and promote private flood mitigation. Targeted information campaigns that concern coping options and discuss current flood risks are important to better prepare for future flood hazards in Germany.
Britholite group minerals (REE,Ca)(5)[(Si,P)O-4](3)(OH,F) are widespread rare-earth minerals in alkaline rocks and their associated metasomatic zones, where they usually are minor accessory phases. An exception is the REE deposit Rodeo de los Molles, Central Argentina, where fluorbritholite-(Ce) (FBri) is the main carrier of REE and is closely intergrown with fluorapatite (FAp). These minerals reach an abundance of locally up to 75 modal% (FBri) and 20 modal% (FAp) in the vein mineralizations. The Rodeo de los Molles deposit is hosted by a fenitized monzogranite of the Middle Devonian Las Chacras-Potrerillos batholith. The REE mineralization consists of fluorbritholite-(Ce), britholite-(Ce), fluorapatite, allanite-(Ce), and REE fluorcarbonates, and is associated with hydrothermal fluorite, quartz, albite, zircon, and titanite. The REE assemblage takes two forms: irregular patchy shaped REE-rich composites and discrete cross-cutting veins. The irregular composites are more common, but here fluorbritholite-(Ce) is mostly replaced by REE carbonates. The vein mineralization has more abundant and better-preserved britholite phases. The majority of britholite grains at Rodeo de los Molles are hydrothermally altered, and alteration is strongly enhanced by metamictization, which is indicated by darkening of the mineral, loss of birefringence, porosity, and volume changes leading to polygonal cracks in and around altered grains. A detailed electron microprobe study of apatite-britholite minerals from Rodeo de los Molles revealed compositional variations in fluorapatite and fluorbritholite-(Ce) consistent with the coupled substitution of REE3+ + Si4+ = Ca2+ + P5+ and a compositional gap of similar to 4 apfu between the two phases, which we interpret as a miscibility gap. Micrometer-scale intergrowths of fluorapatite in fluorbritholite-(Ce) minerals and vice versa are chemically characterized here for the first time and interpreted as exsolution textures that formed during cooling below the proposed solvus.
The Last Interglacial (Eemian, MIS 5e) can be considered a test-bed for climate dynamics under a warmer-than-present climate. In this study we present a chironomid record from the high latitude Sokli site (N Finland), where a long continuous sediment sequence from the last interglacial has been preserved from glacial erosion. The chironomid-analysis shows a diverse fauna, with dominance of warm-water indicators and shifts in assemblage composition that can be attributed to temperature, lake depth, productivity and habitat availability. Quantitative mean July paleotemperature estimates based on the chironomid data indicate overall mean July air temperatures up to 1 degrees C warmer than present. Two cooling events can be discerned, the Tunturi event, dated to about 127.5kaBP, in the lower part of the sequence, and the Varrio event, dated to about 119kaBP, associated with the beginning of a cooling trend in the upper part of the record. Warm conditions already at the onset of the interglacial contrast with a recent chironomid-based last interglacial temperature reconstruction from Denmark, which suggests a late onset of Eemian warming. The relatively small increase in inferred temperatures compared to present day temperatures at Sokli differs from other high latitude Eemian sites, and likely reflects the influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in maintaining already elevated temperatures in Fennoscandia during interglacials.
The Olorgesailie Drilling Project and the related Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project in East Africa were initiated to test hypotheses and models linking environmental change to hominin evolution by drilling lake basin sediments adjacent to important archeological and paleoanthropological sites. Drill core OL012-1A recovered 139 m of sedimentary and volcaniclastic strata from the Koora paleolake basin, southern Kenya Rift, providing the opportunity to compare paleoenvironmental influences over the past million years with the parallel record exposed at the nearby Olorgesailie archeological site. To refine our ability to link core-to-outcrop paleoenvironmental records, we institute here a methodological framework for deriving a robust age model for the complex lithostratigraphy of OL012-1A. Firstly, chronostratigraphic control points for the core were established based on 4 Ar/39Ar ages from intercalated tephra deposits and a basal trachyte flow, as well as the stratigraphic position of the Brunhes-Matuyama geomagnetic reversal. This dataset was combined with the position and duration of paleosols, and analyzed using a new Bayesian algorithm for high-resolution age-depth modeling of hiatus-bearing stratigraphic sections. This model addresses three important aspects relevant to highly dynamic, nonlinear depositional environments: 1) correcting for variable rates of deposition, 2) accommodating hiatuses, and 3) quantifying realistic age uncertainty with centimetric resolution. Our method is applicable to typical depositional systems in extensional rifts as well as to drill cores from other dynamic terrestrial or aquatic environments. We use the core age model and lithostratigraphy to examine the inter connectivity of the Koora Basin to adjacent areas and sources of volcanism. (C) 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
The Baringo-Tugen-Barsemoi 2013 drillcore (BTB13), acquired as part of the Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project, recovered 228 m of fluviolacustrine sedimentary rocks and tuffs spanning a similar to 3.29-2.56 Ma interval of the highly fossiliferous and hominin-bearing Chemeron Formation, Tugen Hills, Kenya. Here we present a Bayesian stratigraphic age model for the core employing chronostratigraphic control points derived from Ar-40/Ar-39 dating of tuffs from core and outcrop, Ar-40/Ar-39 age calibration of related outcrop diatomaceous units, and core magnetostratigraphy. The age model reveals three main intervals with distinct sediment accumulation rates: an early rapid phase from 3.2 to 2.9 Ma; a relatively slow phase from 2.9 to 2.7 Ma; and the highest rate of accumulation from 2.7 to 2.6 Ma. The intervals of rapid accumulation correspond to periods of high Earth orbital eccentricity, whereas the slow accumulation interval corresponds to low eccentricity at 2.9-2.7 Ma, suggesting that astronomically mediated climate processes may be responsible for the observed changes in sediment accumulation rate. Lacustrine transgression-regression events, as delineated using sequence stratigraphy, dominantly operate on precession scale, particularly within the high eccentricity periods. A set of erosively based fluvial conglomerates correspond to the 2.9-2.7 Ma interval, which could be related to either the depositional response to low eccentricity or to the development of unconformities due to local tectonic activity. Age calibration of core magnetic susceptibility and gamma density logs indicates a close temporal correspondence between a shift from high- to low-frequency signal variability at similar to 3 Ma, approximately coincident the end of the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period, and the beginning of the cooling of world climate leading to the initiation of Northern Hemispheric glaciation c. 2.7 Ma. BTB13 and the Baringo Basin records may thus provide evidence of a connection between high-latitude glaciation and equatorial terrestrial climate toward the end of the Pliocene.
The Chew Bahir Drilling Project (CBDP) aims to test possible linkages between climate and evolution in Africa through the analysis of sediment cores that have recorded environmental changes in the Chew Bahir basin. In this statistical project we consider the Chew Bahir palaeolake to be a dynamical system consisting of interactions between its different components, such as the waterbody, the sediment beneath lake, and the organisms living within and around the lake. Recurrence is a common feature of such dynamical systems, with recurring patterns in the state of the system reflecting typical influences. Identifying and defining these influences contributes significantly to our understanding of the dynamics of the system. Different recurring changes in precipitation, evaporation, and wind speed in the Chew Bahir basin could result in similar (but not identical) conditions in the lake (e.g., depth and area of the lake, alkalinity and salinity of the lake water, species assemblages in the water body, and diagenesis in the sediments). Recurrence plots (RPs) are graphic displays of such recurring states within a system. Measures of complexity were subsequently introduced to complement the visual inspection of recurrence plots, and provide quantitative descriptions for use in recurrence quantification analysis (RQA). We present and discuss herein results from an RQA on the environmental record from six short (< 17 m) sediment cores collected during the CBDP, spanning the last 45 kyrs. The different types of variability and transitions in these records were classified to improve our understanding of the response of the biosphere to climate change, and especially the response of humans in the area.
The processes that control long term landscape evolution in continental interiors and, in particular, along passive margins such as in southern Africa, are still the subject of much debate (e.g. Braun, 2018). Although today the Namibian margin is characterized by an arid climate, it has experienced climatic fluctuations during the Cenozoic and, yet, to date no study has documented the potential role of climate on its erosion history. In western Namibia, the Brandberg Massif, an erosional remnant or inselberg, provides a good opportunity to document the Cenozoic denudation history of the margin using the relationship between rock cooling or exhumation ages and their elevation. Here we provide new apatite (UThSm)/He dates on the Brandberg Inselberg that range from 151 +/- 12 to 30 +/- 2 Ma. Combined with existing apatite fission track data, they yield new constraints on the denudation history of the margin. These data document two main cooling phases since continental break-up 130 Myr ago, a rapid one (similar to 10 degrees C/Myr) following break-up and a slower one (similar to 12 degrees C/Myr) between 65 and 35 Ma. We interpret them respectively to be related to escarpment erosion following rifting and continental break-up and as a phase of enhanced denudation during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum. We propose that during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum chemical weathering was important and contributed significantly to the denudation of the Namibian margin and the formation of a pediplain around the Brandberg and enhanced valley incision within the massif. Additionally, aridification of the region since 35 Ma has resulted in negligible denudation rates since that time. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The structure and organization of river networks has been used for decades to investigate the influence of climate and tectonics on landscapes. The majority of these studies either analyze rivers in profile view by extracting channel steepness or calculate planform metrics such as drainage density. However, these techniques rely on the assumption of homogeneity: that intrinsic and external factors are spatially or temporally invariant over the measured profile. This assumption is violated for the majority of Earth's landscapes, where variations in uplift rate, rock strength, climate, and geomorphic process are almost ubiquitous. We propose a method for classifying river profiles to identify landscape regions with similar characteristics by adapting hierarchical clustering algorithms developed for time series data. We first test our clustering on two landscape evolution scenarios and find that we can successfully cluster regions with different erodibility and detect the transient response to sudden base level fall. We then test our method in two real landscapes: first in Bitterroot National Forest, Idaho, where we demonstrate that our method can detect transient incision waves and the topographic signature of fluvial and debris flow process regimes; and second, on Santa Cruz Island, California, where our technique identifies spatial patterns in lithology not detectable through normalized channel steepness analysis. By calculating channel steepness separately for each cluster, our method allows the extraction of more reliable steepness metrics than if calculated for the landscape as a whole. These examples demonstrate the method's ability to disentangle fluvial morphology in complex lithological and tectonic settings.
Debate persists concerning the timing and geodynamics of intercontinental collision, style of syncollisional deformation, and development of topography and fold-and-thrust belts along the >1,700-km-long Izmir-Ankara-Erzincan suture zone (IAESZ) in Turkey. Resolving this debate is a necessary precursor to evaluating the integrity of convergent margin models and kinematic, topographic, and biogeographic reconstructions of the Mediterranean domain. Geodynamic models argue either for a synchronous or diachronous collision during either the Late Cretaceous and/or Eocene, followed by Eocene slab breakoff and postcollisional magmatism. We investigate the collision chronology in western Anatolia as recorded in the sedimentary archives of the 90-km-long Saricakaya Basin perched at shallow structural levels along the IAESZ. Based on new zircon U-Pb geochronology and depositional environment and sedimentary provenance results, we demonstrate that the Saricakaya Basin is an Eocene sedimentary basin with sediment sourced from both the IAESZ and Sogut Thrust fault to the south and north, respectively, and formed primarily by flexural loading from north-south shortening along the syncollisional Sogut Thrust. Our results refine the timing of collision between the Anatolides and Pontide terranes in western Anatolia to Maastrichtian-Middle Paleocene and Early Eocene crustal shortening and basin formation. Furthermore, we demonstrate contemporaneous collision, deformation, and magmatism across the IAESZ, supporting synchronous collision models. We show that regional postcollisional magmatism can be explained by renewed underthrusting instead of slab breakoff. This new IAESZ chronology provides additional constraints for kinematic, geodynamic, and biogeographic reconstructions of the Mediterranean domain.
Encroachment of shrubs into the unique pastoral grassland ecosystems of the Tibetan Plateau has significant impact on ecosystem services, especially forage production. We developed a process-based ecohydrological model to identify the relative importance of the main drivers of shrub encroachment for the alpine meadows within the Qinghai province. Specifically, we explored the effects of summer livestock grazing (intensity and type of livestock) together with the effects of climate warming, including interactions between herbaceous and woody vegetation and feedback loops between soil, water and vegetation. Under current climatic conditions and a traditional herd composition, an increasing grazing intensity above a threshold value of 0.32 +/- 0.10 large stock units (LSU) ha(-1) day(-1) changes the vegetation composition from herbaceous towards a woody and bare soil dominated system. Very high grazing intensity (above 0.8 LSU ha(-1) day(-1)) leads to a complete loss of any vegetation. Under warmer conditions, the vegetation showed a higher resilience against livestock farming. This resilience is enhanced when the herd has a higher browser : grazer ratio. A cooler climate has a shrub encroaching effect, whereas warmer conditions increase the cover of the herbaceous vegetation. This effect was primarily due to season length and an accompanied competitive loss of slower growing shrubs, rather than evaporative water loss leading to less soil water in deeper soil layers for deeper rooting shrubs. If climate warming is driving current shrub encroachment, we conclude it is only indirectly so. It would be manifest by an advancing shrubline and could be regarded as a climatic escape of specific shrub species such as Potentilla fruticosa. Under the recent high intensity of grazing, only herding by more browsing animals can potentially prevent both shrub encroachment and the complete loss of herbaceous vegetation.
The Arctic-Boreal regions experience strong changes of air temperature and precipitation regimes, which affect the thermal state of the permafrost. This results in widespread permafrost-thaw disturbances, some unfolding slowly and over long periods, others occurring rapidly and abruptly. Despite optical remote sensing offering a variety of techniques to assess and monitor landscape changes, a persistent cloud cover decreases the amount of usable images considerably. However, combining data from multiple platforms promises to increase the number of images drastically. We therefore assess the comparability of Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 imagery and the possibility to use both Landsat and Sentinel-2 images together in time series analyses, achieving a temporally-dense data coverage in Arctic-Boreal regions. We determined overlapping same-day acquisitions of Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 images for three representative study sites in Eastern Siberia. We then compared the Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 pixel-pairs, downscaled to 60 m, of corresponding bands and derived the ordinary least squares regression for every band combination. The acquired coefficients were used for spectral bandpass adjustment between the two sensors. The spectral band comparisons showed an overall good fit between Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 images already. The ordinary least squares regression analyses underline the generally good spectral fit with intercept values between 0.0031 and 0.056 and slope values between 0.531 and 0.877. A spectral comparison after spectral bandpass adjustment of Sentinel-2 values to Landsat-8 shows a nearly perfect alignment between the same-day images. The spectral band adjustment succeeds in adjusting Sentinel-2 spectral values to Landsat-8 very well in Eastern Siberian Arctic-Boreal landscapes. After spectral adjustment, Landsat and Sentinel-2 data can be used to create temporally-dense time series and be applied to assess permafrost landscape changes in Eastern Siberia. Remaining differences between the sensors can be attributed to several factors including heterogeneous terrain, poor cloud and cloud shadow masking, and mixed pixels.
The Arctic-Boreal regions experience strong changes of air temperature and precipitation regimes, which affect the thermal state of the permafrost. This results in widespread permafrost-thaw disturbances, some unfolding slowly and over long periods, others occurring rapidly and abruptly. Despite optical remote sensing offering a variety of techniques to assess and monitor landscape changes, a persistent cloud cover decreases the amount of usable images considerably. However, combining data from multiple platforms promises to increase the number of images drastically. We therefore assess the comparability of Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 imagery and the possibility to use both Landsat and Sentinel-2 images together in time series analyses, achieving a temporally-dense data coverage in Arctic-Boreal regions. We determined overlapping same-day acquisitions of Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 images for three representative study sites in Eastern Siberia. We then compared the Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 pixel-pairs, downscaled to 60 m, of corresponding bands and derived the ordinary least squares regression for every band combination. The acquired coefficients were used for spectral bandpass adjustment between the two sensors. The spectral band comparisons showed an overall good fit between Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 images already. The ordinary least squares regression analyses underline the generally good spectral fit with intercept values between 0.0031 and 0.056 and slope values between 0.531 and 0.877. A spectral comparison after spectral bandpass adjustment of Sentinel-2 values to Landsat-8 shows a nearly perfect alignment between the same-day images. The spectral band adjustment succeeds in adjusting Sentinel-2 spectral values to Landsat-8 very well in Eastern Siberian Arctic-Boreal landscapes. After spectral adjustment, Landsat and Sentinel-2 data can be used to create temporally-dense time series and be applied to assess permafrost landscape changes in Eastern Siberia. Remaining differences between the sensors can be attributed to several factors including heterogeneous terrain, poor cloud and cloud shadow masking, and mixed pixels.
Lineament mapping, which is an important part of any structural geological investigation, is made more efficient and easier by the availability of optical as well as radar remote sensing data, such as Landsat and Sentinel with medium and high spatial resolutions. However, the results from these multi-resolution data vary due to their difference in spatial resolution and sensitivity to soil occupation. The accuracy and quality of extracted lineaments depend strongly on the spatial resolution of the imagery. Therefore, the aim of this study was to compare the optical Landsat-8, Sentinel-2A, and radar Sentinel-1A satellite data for automatic lineament extraction. The framework of automatic approach includes defining the optimal parameters for automatic lineament extraction with a combination of edge detection and line-linking algorithms and determining suitable bands from optical data suited for lineament mapping in the study area. For the result validation, the extracted lineaments are compared against the manually obtained lineaments through the application of directional filtering and edge enhancement as well as to the lineaments digitized from the existing geological maps of the study area. In addition, a digital elevation model (DEM) has been utilized for an accuracy assessment followed by the field verification. The obtained results show that the best correlation between automatically extracted lineaments, manual interpretation, and the preexisting lineament map is achieved from the radar Sentinel-1A images. The tests indicate that the radar data used in this study, with 5872 and 5865 lineaments extracted from VH and VV polarizations respectively, is more efficient for structural lineament mapping than the Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2A optical imagery, from which 2338 and 4745 lineaments were extracted respectively.
Obtaining representative hydrometric values is essential for characterizing extreme events, hydrological dynamics and detecting possible changes on the long-term hydrology. Reliability of streamflow data requires a temporal continuity and a maintenance of the gauging stations, which data are affected by epistemic and random sources of error. An assessment of discharge meterings' and stage-discharge rating curves' uncertainties were carried out by comparing the accuracy of the measuring instruments of two different hydrometric networks (i.e., one analogical and one digital) established in the same river location at the Mediterranean island of Mallorca. Furthermore, the effects of such uncertainties were assessed on the hydrological dynamics, considering the significant global change impacts beset this island. Evaluation was developed at four representative gauging stations of the hydrographic network with analogic (≈40 years) and digital (≈10 years) data series. The study revealed that the largest source of uncertainty in the analogical (28 to 274%) and in the digital (17–37%) networks were the stage-discharge rating curves. Their impact on the water resources was also evaluated at the event and annual scales, resulting in an average difference of water yields of 183% and 142% respectively. Such improvement on the comprehension of hydrometric networks uncertainties will dramatically benefit the interpretation of the long-term streamflow by providing better insights into the hydrologic and flood hazard planning, management and modelling.
Climate change is affecting the rate of carbon cycling, particularly in the Arctic. Permafrost degradation through deeper thaw and physical disturbances results in the release of carbon dioxide and methane to the atmosphere and to an increase in lateral dissolved organic matter (DOM) fluxes. Whereas riverine DOM fluxes of the large Arctic rivers are well assessed, knowledge is limited with regard to small catchments that cover more than 40% of the Arctic drainage basin. Here, we use absorption measurements to characterize changes in DOM quantity and quality in a low Arctic (Herschel Island, Yukon, Canada) and a high Arctic (Cape Bounty, Melville Island, Nunavut, Canada) setting with regard to geographical differences, impacts of permafrost degradation, and rainfall events. We find that DOM quantity and quality is controlled by differences in vegetation cover and soil organic carbon content (SOCC). The low Arctic site has higher SOCC and greater abundance of plant material resulting in higher chromophoric dissolved organic matter (cDOM) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) than in the high Arctic. DOC concentration and cDOM in surface waters at both sites show strong linear relationships similar to the one for the great Arctic rivers. We used the optical characteristics of DOM such as cDOM absorption, specific ultraviolet absorbance (SUVA), ultraviolet (UV) spectral slopes (S275-295), and slope ratio (SR) for assessing quality changes downstream, at base flow and storm flow conditions, and in relation to permafrost disturbance. DOM in streams at both sites demonstrated optical signatures indicative of photodegradation downstream processes, even over short distances of 2000 m. Flow pathways and the connected hydrological residence time control DOM quality. Deeper flow pathways allow the export of permafrost-derived DOM (i.e. from deeper in the active layer), whereas shallow pathways with shorter residence times lead to the export of fresh surface- and near-surface-derived DOM. Compared to the large Arctic rivers, DOM quality exported from the small catchments studied here is much fresher and therefore prone to degradation. Assessing optical properties of DOM and linking them to catchment properties will be a useful tool for understanding changing DOM fluxes and quality at a pan-Arctic scale.
Climatic observables are often correlated across long spatial distances, and extreme events, such as heatwaves or floods, are typically assumed to be related to such teleconnections(1,2). Revealing atmospheric teleconnection patterns and understanding their underlying mechanisms is of great importance for weather forecasting in general and extreme-event prediction in particular(3,4), especially considering that the characteristics of extreme events have been suggested to change under ongoing anthropogenic climate change(5-8). Here we reveal the global coupling pattern of extreme-rainfall events by applying complex-network methodology to high-resolution satellite data and introducing a technique that corrects for multiple-comparison bias in functional networks. We find that the distance distribution of significant connections (P < 0.005) around the globe decays according to a power law up to distances of about 2,500 kilometres. For longer distances, the probability of significant connections is much higher than expected from the scaling of the power law. We attribute the shorter, power-law-distributed connections to regional weather systems. The longer, super-power-law-distributed connections form a global rainfall teleconnection pattern that is probably controlled by upper-level Rossby waves. We show that extreme-rainfall events in the monsoon systems of south-central Asia, east Asia and Africa are significantly synchronized. Moreover, we uncover concise links between south-central Asia and the European and North American extratropics, as well as the Southern Hemisphere extratropics. Analysis of the atmospheric conditions that lead to these teleconnections confirms Rossby waves as the physical mechanism underlying these global teleconnection patterns and emphasizes their crucial role in dynamical tropical-extratropical couplings. Our results provide insights into the function of Rossby waves in creating stable, global-scale dependencies of extreme-rainfall events, and into the potential predictability of associated natural hazards.
Water stable isotope signatures can provide valuable insights into the catchment internal runoff processes. However, the ability of the water isotope data to constrain the internal apportionments of runoff components in hydrological models for glacierized basins is not well understood. This study developed an approach to simultaneously model the water stable isotopic compositions and runoff processes in a glacierized basin in Central Asia. The fractionation and mixing processes of water stable isotopes in and from the various water sources were integrated into a glacio-hydrological model. The model parameters were calibrated on discharge, snow cover and glacier mass balance data, and additionally isotopic composition of streamflow. We investigated the value of water isotopic compositions for the calibration of model parameters, in comparison to calibration methods without using such measurements. Results indicate that: (1) The proposed isotope-hydrological integrated modeling approach was able to reproduce the isotopic composition of streamflow, and improved the model performance in the evaluation period; (2) Involving water isotopic composition for model calibration reduced the model parameter uncertainty, and helped to reduce the uncertainty in the quantification of runoff components; (3) The isotope-hydrological integrated modeling approach quantified the contributions of runoff components comparably to a three-component tracer-based end-member mixing analysis method for summer peak flows, and required less water tracer data. Our findings demonstrate the value of water isotopic compositions to improve the quantification of runoff components using hydrological models in glacierized basins.
This dissertation combines field and geochemical observations and analyses with numerical modeling to understand the formation of vein-hosted Sn-W ore in the Panasqueira deposit of Portugal, which is among the ten largest worldwide. The deposit is located above a granite body that is altered by magmatic-hydrothermal fluids in its upper part (greisen). These fluids are thought to be the source of metals, but that was still under debate. The goal of this study is to determine the composition and temperature of hydrothermal fluids at Panasqueira, and with that information to construct a numerical model of the hydrothermal system. The focus is on analysis of the minerals tourmaline and white mica, which formed during mineralization and are widespread throughout the deposit. Tourmaline occurs mainly in alteration zones around mineralized veins and is less abundant in the vein margins. White mica is more widespread. It is abundant in vein margins as well as alteration zones, and also occurs in the granite greisen. The laboratory work involved in-situ microanalysis of major- and trace elements in tourmaline and white mica, and boron-isotope analysis in both minerals by secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS).
The boron-isotope composition of tourmaline and white mica suggests a magmatic source. Comparison of hydrothermally-altered and unaltered rocks from drill cores shows that the ore metals (W, Sn, Cu, and Zn) and As, F, Li, Rb, and Cs were introduced during the alteration. Most of these elements are also enriched in tourmaline and mica, which confirms their potential value as exploration guides to Sn-W ores elsewhere.
The thermal evolution of the hydrothermal system was estimated by B-isotope exchange thermometry and the Ti-in-quartz method. Both methods yielded similar temperatures for the early hydrothermal phase: 430° to 460°C for B-isotopes and 503° ± 24°C for Ti-in-quartz. Mineral pairs from a late fault zone yield significantly lower median temperatures of 250°C. The combined results of thermometry with variations in chemical and B-isotope composition of tourmaline and mica suggest that a similar magmatic-hydrothermal fluid was active at all stages of mineralization. Mineralization in the late stage shows the same B-isotope composition as in the main stage despite a ca. 250°C cooling, which supports a multiple injection model of magmatic-hydrothermal fluids.
Two-dimensional numerical simulations of convection in a multiphase NaCl hydrothermal system were conducted: (a) in order to test a new approach (lower dimensional elements) for flow through fractures and faults and (b) in order to identify conditions for horizontal fluid flow as observed in the flat-lying veins at Panasqueira. The results show that fluid flow over an intrusion (heat and fluid source) develops a horizontal component if there is sufficient fracture connectivity. Late, steep fault zones have been identified in the deposit area, which locally contain low-temperature Zn-Pb mineralization. The model results confirm that the presence of subvertical faults with enhanced permeability play a crucial role in the ascent of magmatic fluids to the surface and the recharge of meteoric waters. Finally, our model results suggest that recharge of meteoric fluids and mixing processes may be important at later stages, while flow of magmatic fluids dominate the early stages of the hydrothermal fluid circulation.
Magmatic-hydrothermal fluids are responsible for numerous mineralization types, including porphyry copper and granite related tin-tungsten (Sn-W) deposits. Ore formation is dependent on various factors, including, the pressure and temperature regime of the intrusions, the chemical composition of the magma and hydrothermal fluids, and fluid rock interaction during the ascent. Fluid inclusions have potential to provide direct information on the temperature, salinity, pressure and chemical composition of fluids responsible for ore formation. Numerical modeling allows the parametrization of pluton features that cannot be analyzed directly via geological observations.
Microthermometry of fluid inclusions from the Zinnwald Sn-W deposit, Erzgebirge, Germany / Czech Republic, provide evidence that the greisen mineralization is associated with a low salinity (2-10 wt.% NaCl eq.) fluid with homogenization temperatures between 350°C and 400°C. Quartzes from numerous veins are host to inclusions with the same temperatures and salinities, whereas cassiterite- and wolframite-hosted assemblages with slightly lower temperatures (around 350°C) and higher salinities (ca. 15 wt. NaCl eq.). Further, rare quartz samples contained boiling assemblages consisting of coexisting brine and vapor phases. The formation of ore minerals within the greisen is driven by invasive fluid-rock interaction, resulting in the loss of complexing agents (Cl-) leading to precipitation of cassiterite. The fluid inclusion record in the veins suggests boiling as the main reason for cassiterite and wolframite mineralization. Ore and coexisting gangue minerals hosted different types of fluid inclusions where the beginning boiling processes are solely preserved by the ore minerals emphasizing the importance of microthermometry in ore minerals. Further, the study indicates that boiling as a precipitation mechanism can only occur in mineralization related to shallow intrusions whereas deeper plutons prevent the fluid from boiling and can therefore form tungsten mineralization in the distal regions.
The tin mineralization in the Hämmerlein deposit, Erzgebirge, Germany, occurs within a skarn horizon and the underlying schist. Cassiterite within the skarn contains highly saline (30-50 wt% NaCl eq.) fluid inclusions, with homogenization temperatures up to 500°C, whereas cassiterites from the schist and additional greisen samples contain inclusions of lower salinity (~5 wt% NaCl eq.) and temperature (between 350 and 400°C). Inclusions in the gangue minerals (quartz, fluorite) preserve homogenization temperatures below 350°C and sphalerite showed the lowest homogenization temperatures (ca. 200°C) whereby all minerals (cassiterite from schist and greisen, gangue minerals and sphalerite) show similar salinity ranges (2-5 wt% NaCl eq.). Similar trace element contents and linear trends in the chemistry of the inclusions suggest a common source fluid. The inclusion record in the Hämmerlein deposit documents an early exsolution of hot brines from the underlying granite which is responsible for the mineralization hosted by the skarn. Cassiterites in schist and greisen are mainly forming due to fluid-rock interaction at lower temperatures. The low temperature inclusions documented in the sphalerite mineralization as well as their generally low trace element composition in comparison to the other minerals suggests that their formation was induced by mixing with meteoric fluids.
Numerical simulations of magma chambers and overlying copper distribution document the importance of incremental growth by sills. We analyzed the cooling behavior at variable injection intervals as well as sill thicknesses. The models suggest that magma accumulation requires volumetric injection rates of at least 4 x 10-4 km³/y. These injection rates are further needed to form a stable magmatic-hydrothermal fluid plume above the magma chamber to ensure a constant copper precipitation and enrichment within a confined location in order to form high-grade ore shells within a narrow geological timeframe between 50 and 100 kyrs as suggested for porphyry copper deposits. The highest copper enrichment can be found in regions with steep temperature gradients, typical of regions where the magmatic-hydrothermal fluid meets the cooler ambient fluids.
The Schwarzenberg mining district in the western Erzgebirge hosts numerous skarn-hosted tin-polymetallic deposits, such as Breitenbrunn. The St. Christoph mine is located in the Breitenbrunn deposit and is the locus typicus of christophite, an iron-rich sphalerite variety, which can be associated with indium enrichment. This study presents a revision of the paragenetic scheme, a contribution to the indium behavior and potential, and discussion on the origin of the sulfur. This was achieved through reflected light microscopy, SEM-based MLA, EPMA, and bulk mineral sulfur isotope analysis on 37 sulfide-rich skarn samples from a mineral collection. The paragenetic scheme includes: a pre-mineralization stage of anhydrous calc-silicates and hydrous minerals; an oxide stage, dominated by magnetite; a sulfide stage of predominantly sphalerite, minor pyrite, chalcopyrite, arsenopyrite, and galena. Some sphalerite samples present elevated indium contents of up to 0.44 wt%. Elevated iron contents (4-10 wt%) in sphalerite can be tentatively linked to increased indium incorporation, but further analyses are required. Analyzed sulfides exhibit homogeneous delta S-34 values (-1 to +2 parts per thousand VCDT), assumed to be post-magmatic. They correlate with other Fe-Sn-Zn-Cu-In skarn deposits in the western Erzgebirge, and Permian vein-hosted associations throughout the Erzgebirge region.
We show that near-real-time seismic monitoring of fluid injection allowed control of induced earthquakes during the stimulation of a 6.1-km-deep geothermal well near Helsinki, Finland. A total of 18,160 m(3) of fresh water was pumped into crystalline rocks over 49 days in June to July 2018. Seismic monitoring was performed with a 24-station borehole seismometer network. Using near-real-time information on induced-earthquake rates, locations, magnitudes, and evolution of seismic and hydraulic energy, pumping was either stopped or varied-in the latter case, between well-head pressures of 60 and 90 MPa and flow rates of 400 and 800 liters/min. This procedure avoided the nucleation of a project-stopping magnitude M-W 2.0 induced earthquake, a limit set by local authorities. Our results suggest a possible physics-based approach to controlling stimulation-induced seismicity in geothermal projects.
Aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) as a complement to fluctuating renewable energy systems is a reliable technology to guarantee continuous energy supply for heating and air conditioning. We investigated a high-temperature (HT) mono-well system (c. 100 degrees C), where the well screens are separated vertically within the aquifer, as an alternative to conventional doublet ATES systems for an underground storage in northern Oman. We analysed the impact of thermal inference between injection and extraction well screens on the heat recovery factor (HRF) in order to define the optimal screento-screen distance for best possible systems efficiency. Two controlling interference parameters were considered: the vertical screen-to-screen distance and aquifer heterogeneities. The sensitivity study shows that with decreasing screen-to-screen distances, thermal interference increases storage performance. A turning point is reached if the screen distance is too close, causing either water breakthrough or negative thermal interference between the screens. Our simulations show that a combined heat plume with spherical geometry results in the highest heat recovery factors due to the lowest surface area to volume ratios. Thick aquifers for mono-well HT-ATES are thus not mandatory Our study shows that a HT-ATES mono-well system is a feasible storage design with high heat recovery factors for continuous cooling or heating purposes.
Lateral movements of alluvial river channels control the extent and reworking rates of alluvial fans, floodplains, deltas, and alluvial sections of bedrock rivers. These lateral movements can occur by gradual channel migration or by sudden changes in channel position (avulsions). Whereas models exist for rates of river avulsion, we lack a detailed understanding of the rates of lateral channel migration on the scale of a channel belt. In a two-step process, we develop here an expression for the lateral migration rate of braided channel systems in coarse, non-cohesive sediment. On the basis of photographic and topographic data from laboratory experiments of braided channels performed under constant external boundary conditions, we first explore the impact of autogenic variations of the channel-system geometry (i.e. channel-bank heights, water depths, channel-system width, and channel slope) on channel-migration rates. In agreement with theoretical expectations, we find that, under such constant boundary conditions, the laterally reworked volume of sediment is constant and lateral channel-migration rates scale inversely with the channel-bank height. Furthermore, when channel-bank heights are accounted for, lateral migration rates are independent of the remaining channel geometry parameters. These constraints allow us, in a second step, to derive two alternative expressions for lateral channel-migration rates under different boundary conditions using dimensional analysis. Fits of a compilation of laboratory experiments to these expressions suggest that, for a given channel bank-height, migration rates are strongly sensitive to water discharges and more weakly sensitive to sediment discharges. In addition, external perturbations, such as changes in sediment and water discharges or base level fall, can indirectly affect lateral channel-migration rates by modulating channel-bank heights.
In response to collision and convergence between India and Asia during the Cenozoic, convergence took place between the Pamir and South Tian Shan. Here we present new detrital zircon U-Pb ages coupled with conglomerate clast counting and sedimentary data from the late Cenozoic Wuheshalu section in the convergence zone, to shed light on the convergence process of the Pamir and South Tian Shan. Large Triassic zircon U-Pb age populations in all seven samples suggest that Triassic igneous rocks from the North Pamir were the major source area for the late Cenozoic Wuheshalu section. In the Miocene, large populations of the North Pamir component supports rapid exhumation in the North Pamir and suggest that topography already existed there since the early Miocene. Exhumation of the South Tian Shan was relatively less important in the Miocene and its detritus could only reach a limited area in the foreland area. Gradually increasing sediment loading and convergence of the Pamir and South Tian Shan caused rapid subsidence in the convergence area. Since ca. 6-5.3 Ma, the combination of a major North Pamir component and a minor South Tian Shan component at the Wuheshalu section is consistent with active deformation of the South Tian Shan and the North Pamir. During deposition of the upper Atushi Formation, a larger proportion of North Pamir-derived sediments was deposited in the Wuheshalu section, maybe because faulting and northward propagation of the North Pamir caused northward displacement of the depocenter to north of the Wuheshalu section.
One commonly proposed method to limit flood risk is land-use or zoning policies which regulates construction in high-risk areas, in order to reduce economic exposure and its vulnerability to flood events. Although such zoning regulations can be effective in limiting trends in flood risk, they also have adverse impacts on society, for instance by limiting local development of areas near the water. In order to judge whether proposed land-use or zoning policies are a net benefit to society, they should be accepted or rejected based on a societal cost-benefit analysis (CBA). However, conducting a CBA of zoning regulation is complex and comprehensive guidelines of how to do such an analysis are lacking. We offer guidelines for good practice. In order to assess the costs and benefits of zoning as a climate change adaption strategy, they should be assessed at a societal level in order to account for public good features of flood risk reduction strategies, and because costs in one area can be benefits in another region. We propose a multistep process: first, determine the spatial extent of the zoning policy and how interconnected the zoned area is to other locations; second, conduct a CBA using monetary costs and benefits estimated from an integrated hydro-economic model to investigate if total benefits exceed total costs; third, conduct a sensitivity analysis regarding the main assumptions; fourth, conduct a multicriteria analysis (MCA) of the normative outcomes of a zoning policy. A desirable policy is preferred in both the CBA and MCA. This article is categorized under: Engineering Water > Planning Water Human Water > Value of Water Science of Water > Water Extremes Human Water > Methods
Garnet of eclogite (formerly termed garnet clinopyroxenite) hosted in lenses of orogenic garnet peridotite from the Granulitgebirge, NW Bohemian Massif, contains unique inclusions of granitic melt, now either glassy or crystallized. Analysed glasses and re‐homogenized inclusions are hydrous, peraluminous, and enriched in highly incompatible elements characteristic of the continental crust such as Cs, Li, B, Pb, Rb, Th, and U. The original melt thus represents a pristine, chemically evolved metasomatic agent, which infiltrated the mantle via deep continental subduction during the Variscan orogeny. The bulk chemical composition of the studied eclogites is similar to that of Fe‐rich basalt and the enrichment in LILE and U suggest a subduction‐related component. All these geochemical features confirm metasomatism. In comparison with many other garnet+clinopyroxene‐bearing lenses in peridotites of the Bohemian Massif, the studied samples from Rubinberg and Klatschmühle are more akin to eclogite than pyroxenites, as reflected in high jadeite content in clinopyroxene, relatively low Mg, Cr, and Ni but relatively high Ti. However, trace elements of both bulk rock and individual mineral phases show also important differences making these samples rather unique. Metasomatism involving a melt requiring a trace element pattern very similar to the composition reported here has been suggested for the source region of rocks of the so‐called durbachite suite, that is, ultrapotassic melanosyenites, which are found throughout the high‐grade Variscan basement. Moreover, the Th, U, Pb, Nb, Ta, and Ti patterns of these newly studied melt inclusions (MI) strongly resemble those observed for peridotite and its enclosed pyroxenite from the T‐7 borehole (Staré, České Středhoři Mountains) in N Bohemia. This suggests that a similar kind of crustal‐derived melt also occurred here. This study of granitic MI in eclogites from peridotites has provided the first direct characterization of a preserved metasomatic melt, possibly responsible for the metasomatism of several parts of the mantle in the Variscides.
Garnet of eclogite (formerly termed garnet clinopyroxenite) hosted in lenses of orogenic garnet peridotite from the Granulitgebirge, NW Bohemian Massif, contains unique inclusions of granitic melt, now either glassy or crystallized. Analysed glasses and re‐homogenized inclusions are hydrous, peraluminous, and enriched in highly incompatible elements characteristic of the continental crust such as Cs, Li, B, Pb, Rb, Th, and U. The original melt thus represents a pristine, chemically evolved metasomatic agent, which infiltrated the mantle via deep continental subduction during the Variscan orogeny. The bulk chemical composition of the studied eclogites is similar to that of Fe‐rich basalt and the enrichment in LILE and U suggest a subduction‐related component. All these geochemical features confirm metasomatism. In comparison with many other garnet+clinopyroxene‐bearing lenses in peridotites of the Bohemian Massif, the studied samples from Rubinberg and Klatschmühle are more akin to eclogite than pyroxenites, as reflected in high jadeite content in clinopyroxene, relatively low Mg, Cr, and Ni but relatively high Ti. However, trace elements of both bulk rock and individual mineral phases show also important differences making these samples rather unique. Metasomatism involving a melt requiring a trace element pattern very similar to the composition reported here has been suggested for the source region of rocks of the so‐called durbachite suite, that is, ultrapotassic melanosyenites, which are found throughout the high‐grade Variscan basement. Moreover, the Th, U, Pb, Nb, Ta, and Ti patterns of these newly studied melt inclusions (MI) strongly resemble those observed for peridotite and its enclosed pyroxenite from the T‐7 borehole (Staré, České Středhoři Mountains) in N Bohemia. This suggests that a similar kind of crustal‐derived melt also occurred here. This study of granitic MI in eclogites from peridotites has provided the first direct characterization of a preserved metasomatic melt, possibly responsible for the metasomatism of several parts of the mantle in the Variscides.
Oceanic Anoxic Event-2 (OAE-2; Cenomanian-Turonian) is characterized by extensive deposition of organic carbon-rich deposits (black shales) in ocean basins worldwide as result of a major perturbation of the global carbon cycle. While the sedimentological, geochemical, and paleontological aspects of deep water expressions of OAE-2 have been intensively studied in the last few decades, much less attention has been given to the coeval shallow water deposits. In this study, we present the results of a detailed facies and petrographic (optical microscope and scanning electron microscopy) and geochemical studies (delta C-13(carb), delta C-13 (org), delta N-15(bulk), TOC, and Rock-Eval pyrolysis) on two key shallow marine sections from the Apennine Carbonate Platform (ACP; Italy). Here a continuous record of shallow water carbonates through the OAE-2 interval is preserved, offering the unique opportunity to document the archive of paleoenvironmental changes in a neritic setting, at a tropical latitude and far from the influence of a large continental block. Two conspicuous intervals are characterized by abundant and closely spaced dark microbial laminites found at correlative stratigraphic horizons in the two stratigraphic sections. These laminites contain elevated concentrations of TOC (up to 1%) relative to microbial capping cycles laminites stratigraphically above and below. The organic matter preserved in these fine-grained laminites is dominated by cyanobacteria remains, which accounted for most of the organic matter produced on the ACP in these intervals. Our study suggests that Tethyan carbonate platforms experienced significant biological changes during OAE-2, alternating, in few kiloyears, between eutrophic phases dominated by microbial communities and mesotrophic/oligotrophic conditions favoring normal carbonate production/sedimentation. The synchronous occurrence of microbialite facies at different locations across the ACP and on other platforms worldwide (e.g., Mexico and Croatia) suggests a causal link between Large Igneous Province volcanism and the environmental conditions necessary to trigger cyanobacterial proliferation on shallow carbonate platforms.
The occurrence of deep low-frequency (DLF) microearthquakes beneath volcanoes is commonly attributed to mass transport in the volcanic plumbing system and used to infer feeding channels from and into magma reservoirs. The key question is how magmas migrate from depth to the shallow crust and whether magma reservoirs are currently being recharged. For the first time since the improvement of the local seismic networks in the East Eifel region (Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany), we detect and locate recurrent DLF earthquakes in the lower crust and upper mantle beneath the Laacher See Volcano (LSV), using a joint data set of permanent sensors and a temporary deployment. So far, eight DLF earthquake sequences were observed in four distinct clusters between 10 and 40 km depth. These clusters of weak events (M-L< 2) align along an approximately 80. southeast dipping line south of the LSV. Moment tensor solutions of these events have large shear components, and the irregular dispersion and long coda of body waves indicate interaction processes between shear cracks and fluids. We find a rotation of P-axes orientation for shallow tectonic earthquakes compared to DLF events, indicating that the stress field in the depth interval of DLF events might favour a vertical migration of magma or magmatic fluids. The caldera of the LSV was formed by the last major eruption of the East Eifel Volcanic Field only 12.9 kyr ago, fed by a shallow magma chamber at 5-8 km depth and erupting a total magma volume of 6.7 km(3). The observed DLF earthquake activity and continuous volcanic gas emissions around the LSV indicate an active magmatic system, possibly connected with an upper mantle melt zone.
We investigated deep-seated gravitational slope deformation (DSGSD) and slow mass movements in the southern Tien Shan Mountains front using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) time-series data obtained by the ALOS/PALSAR satellite. DSGSD evolves with a variety of geomorphological changes (e.g. valley erosion, incision of slope drainage networks) over time that affect earth surfaces and, therefore, often remain unexplored. We analysed 118 interferograms generated from 20 SAR images that covered about 900 km(2). To understand the spatial pattern of the slope movements and to identify triggering parameters, we correlated surface dynamics with the tectono-geomorphic processes and lithologic conditions of the active front of the Alai Range. We observed spatially continuous, constant hillslope movements with a downslope speed of approximately 71 mm year(-1) velocity. Our findings suggest that the lithological and structural framework defined by protracted deformation was the main controlling factor for sustained relief and, consequently, downslope mass movements. The analysed structures revealed integration of a geological/structural setting with the superposition of Cretaceous-Paleogene alternating carbonatic and clastic sedimentary structures as the substratum for younger, less consolidated sediments. This type of structural setting causes the development of large-scale, gravity-driven DSGSD and slow mass movement. Surface deformations with clear scarps and multiple crest lines triggered planes for large-scale deep mass creeps, and these were related directly to active faults and folds in the geologic structures. Our study offers a new combination of InSAR techniques and structural field observations, along with morphometric and seismologic correlations, to identify and quantify slope instability phenomena along a tectonically active mountain front. These results contribute to an improved natural risk assessment in these structures.
Following the Middle Permian (Capitanian) mass extinction there was a global ‘reef eclipse’, and this event had an important role in the Paleozoic-Mesozoic transition of reef ecosystems. Furthermore, the recovery pattern of reef ecosystems in the Wuchiapingian of South China, before the radiation of Changhsingian reefs, is poorly understood. Here, we present a detailed sedimentological account of the Tieqiao section, South China, which records the only known Wuchiapingian reef setting from South China. Six reef growing phases were identified within six transgressive-regressive cycles. The cycles represent changes of deposition in a shallow basin to a subtidal outer platform setting, and the reefal build-ups are recorded in the shallowest part of the cycles above wave base in the euphotic zone. Our results show that the initial reef recovery started from the shallowing up part of the 1st cycle, within the Clarkina leveni conodont zone, which is two conodont zones earlier than previously recognized. In addition, even though metazoans, such as sponges, do become important in the development of the reef bodies, they are not a major component until later in the Wuchiapingian in the 5th and 6th transgressive-regressive cycles. This suggests a delayed recovery of metazoan reef ecosystems following the Middle Permian extinction. Furthermore, even though sponges do become abundant within the reefs, it is the presence and growth of the encrusters Archaeolithoporella and Tubiphytes and abundance of microbial micrites that play an important role in stabilizing the reef structures that form topographic highs.
The Alpine orogen formed as a result of the collision between the Adriatic and European plates. Significant crustal heterogeneity exists within the region due to the long history of interplay between these plates, other continental and oceanic blocks in the region, and inherited crustal features from earlier orogenies. Deformation relating to the collision continues to the present day. Here, a seismically constrained, 3-D structural and density model of the lithosphere of the Alps and their respective forelands, derived from integrating numerous geoscientific datasets, was adjusted to match the observed gravity field. It is shown that the distribution of seismicity and deformation within the region correlates well to thickness and density changes within the crust, and that the present-day Adriatic crust is both thinner and denser (22.5 km, 2800 kg m(-3) ) than the European crust (27.5 km, 2750 kg m(-3)). Alpine crust derived from each respective plate is found to show the same trend, with zones of Adriatic provenance (Austro-Alpine unit and Southern Alps) found to be denser and those of European provenance (Helvetic zone and Tauern Window) to be less dense. This suggests that the respective plates and related terranes had similar crustal properties to the present-day ones prior to orogenesis. The model generated here is available for open-access use to further discussions about the crust in the region.
Determining the optimal grid resolution for topographic analysis on an airborne lidar dataset
(2019)
Digital elevation models (DEMs) are a gridded representation of the surface of the Earth and typically contain uncertainties due to data collection and processing. Slope and aspect estimates on a DEM contain errors and uncertainties inherited from the representation of a continuous surface as a grid (referred to as truncation error; TE) and from any DEM uncertainty. We analyze in detail the impacts of TE and propagated elevation uncertainty (PEU) on slope and aspect.
Using synthetic data as a control, we define functions to quantify both TE and PEU for arbitrary grids. We then develop a quality metric which captures the combined impact of both TE and PEU on the calculation of topographic metrics. Our quality metric allows us to examine the spatial patterns of error and uncertainty in topographic metrics and to compare calculations on DEMs of different sizes and accuracies.
Using lidar data with point density of ∼10 pts m−2 covering Santa Cruz Island in southern California, we are able to generate DEMs and uncertainty estimates at several grid resolutions. Slope (aspect) errors on the 1 m dataset are on average 0.3∘ (0.9∘) from TE and 5.5∘ (14.5∘) from PEU. We calculate an optimal DEM resolution for our SCI lidar dataset of 4 m that minimizes the error bounds on topographic metric calculations due to the combined influence of TE and PEU for both slope and aspect calculations over the entire SCI. Average slope (aspect) errors from the 4 m DEM are 0.25∘ (0.75∘) from TE and 5∘ (12.5∘) from PEU. While the smallest grid resolution possible from the high-density SCI lidar is not necessarily optimal for calculating topographic metrics, high point-density data are essential for measuring DEM uncertainty across a range of resolutions.
Determining the optimal grid resolution for topographic analysis on an airborne lidar dataset
(2019)
Digital elevation models (DEMs) are a gridded representation of the surface of the Earth and typically contain uncertainties due to data collection and processing. Slope and aspect estimates on a DEM contain errors and uncertainties inherited from the representation of a continuous surface as a grid (referred to as truncation error; TE) and from any DEM uncertainty. We analyze in detail the impacts of TE and propagated elevation uncertainty (PEU) on slope and aspect.
Using synthetic data as a control, we define functions to quantify both TE and PEU for arbitrary grids. We then develop a quality metric which captures the combined impact of both TE and PEU on the calculation of topographic metrics. Our quality metric allows us to examine the spatial patterns of error and uncertainty in topographic metrics and to compare calculations on DEMs of different sizes and accuracies.
Using lidar data with point density of ∼10 pts m−2 covering Santa Cruz Island in southern California, we are able to generate DEMs and uncertainty estimates at several grid resolutions. Slope (aspect) errors on the 1 m dataset are on average 0.3∘ (0.9∘) from TE and 5.5∘ (14.5∘) from PEU. We calculate an optimal DEM resolution for our SCI lidar dataset of 4 m that minimizes the error bounds on topographic metric calculations due to the combined influence of TE and PEU for both slope and aspect calculations over the entire SCI. Average slope (aspect) errors from the 4 m DEM are 0.25∘ (0.75∘) from TE and 5∘ (12.5∘) from PEU. While the smallest grid resolution possible from the high-density SCI lidar is not necessarily optimal for calculating topographic metrics, high point-density data are essential for measuring DEM uncertainty across a range of resolutions.
Paleogeographic reconstructions of terranes can greatly benefit from the provenance analysis of sediments. A series of Cenozoic basins provide key sedimentary archives for investigating the growth of the Tibetan Plateau, yet the provenance of the sediments in these basins has never been constrained robustly. Here we report sedimentary petrological and detrital zircon geochronological data from the Paleocene-Eocene Nangqian-Xialaxiu and Gongjue basins. Sandstone detrital modes and zircon morphology suggest that the samples collected in these two basins were sourced from recycled orogen. Detrital zircon geochronology indicates that sediments in the Nangqian-Xialaxiu Basin are characterized by two distinct age populations at 220-280 Ma and 405-445 Ma. In contrast, three predominant age populations of 207-256 Ma, 423-445 Ma, and 1851-1868 Ma, and two subordinate age populations of similar to 50 Ma and similar to 2500 Ma, are recognized in the Gongjue Basin. Comparison with detrital zircon ages from the surrounding terranes suggests that sediments in the Nangqian-Xialaxiu Basin come from the neighboring thrust belts, whereas sediments from the Gongjue Basin are predominantly derived from the distant Songpan-Ganzi Terrane with minor contribution from the surrounding areas. A three-stage Cenozoic evolution of the eastern Tibetan Plateau is proposed. During the Paleocene, the Nangqian-Xialaxiu Basin appeared as a set of small intermontane sub-basins and received plentiful sediments from the neighboring mountain belts; during the Eocene, the Gongjue Basin kept a relatively low altitude and was a depression at the edge of a proto-Plateau; since the Oligocene, the Tibetan Plateau further uplifted and the marginal Gongjue Basin was involved in the Tibetan interior orogeny, indicating the eastward propagation of the Tibetan Plateau.
Earthquake swarms are characterized by large numbers of events occurring in a short period of time within a confined source volume and without significant mainshock aftershock pattern as opposed to tectonic sequences. Intraplate swarms in the absence of active volcanism usually occur in continental rifts as for example in the Eger Rift zone in North West Bohemia, Czech Republic. A common hypothesis links event triggering to pressurized fluids. However, the exact causal chain is often poorly understood since the underlying geotectonic processes are slow compared to tectonic sequences. The high event rate during active periods challenges standard seismological routines as these are often designed for single events and therefore costly in terms of human resources when working with phase picks or computationally costly when exploiting full waveforms.
This methodological thesis develops new approaches to analyze earthquake swarm seismicity as well as the underlying seismogenic volume. It focuses on the region of North West (NW) Bohemia, a well studied, well monitored earthquake swarm region.
In this work I develop and test an innovative approach to detect and locate earthquakes using deep convolutional neural networks. This technology offers great potential as it allows to efficiently process large amounts of data which becomes increasingly important given that seismological data storage grows at increasing pace. The proposed deep neural network trained on NW Bohemian earthquake swarm records is able to locate 1000 events in less than 1 second using full waveforms while approaching precision of double difference relocated catalogs. A further technological novelty is that the trained filters of the deep neural network’s first layer can be repurposed to function as a pattern matching event detector without additional training on noise datasets. For further methodological development and benchmarking, I present a new toolbox to generate realistic earthquake cluster catalogs as well as synthetic full waveforms of those clusters in an automated fashion. The input is parameterized using constraints on source volume geometry, nucleation and frequency-magnitude relations. It harnesses recorded noise to produce highly realistic synthetic data for benchmarking and development. This tool is used to study and assess detection performance in terms of magnitude of completeness Mc of a full waveform detector applied to synthetic data of a hydrofracturing experiment at the Wysin site, Poland.
Finally, I present and demonstrate a novel approach to overcome the masking effects of wave propagation between earthquake and stations and to determine source volume attenuation directly in the source volume where clustered earthquakes occur. The new event couple spectral ratio approach exploits high frequency spectral slopes of two events sharing the greater part of their rays. Synthetic tests based on the toolbox mentioned before show that this method is able to infer seismic wave attenuation within the source volume at high spatial resolution. Furthermore, it is independent from the distance towards a station as well as the complexity of the attenuation and velocity structure outside of the source volume of swarms. The application to recordings of the NW Bohemian earthquake swarm shows increased P phase attenuation within the source volume (Qp < 100) based on results at a station located close to the village Luby (LBC). The recordings of a station located in epicentral proximity, close to Nový Kostel (NKC), show a relatively high complexity indicating that waves arriving at that station experience more scattering than signals recorded at other stations. The high level of complexity destabilizes the inversion. Therefore, the Q estimate at NKC is not reliable and an independent proof of the high attenuation finding given the geometrical and frequency constraints is still to be done. However, a high attenuation in the source volume of NW Bohemian swarms has been postulated before in relation to an expected, highly damaged zone bearing CO 2 at high pressure.
The methods developed in the course of this thesis yield the potential to improve our understanding regarding the role of fluids and gases in intraplate event clustering.
The 2-D distinct element method (DEM) code (PFC2D_V5) is used here to simulate the evolution of subsidence-related karst landforms, such as single and clustered sinkholes, and associated larger-scale depressions. Subsurface material in the DEM model is removed progressively to produce an array of cavities; this simulates a network of subsurface groundwater conduits growing by chemical/mechanical erosion. The growth of the cavity array is coupled mechanically to the gravitationally loaded surroundings, such that cavities can grow also in part by material failure at their margins, which in the limit can produce individual collapse sinkholes. Two end-member growth scenarios of the cavity array and their impact on surface subsidence were examined in the models: (1) cavity growth at the same depth level and growth rate; (2) cavity growth at progressively deepening levels with varying growth rates. These growth scenarios are characterised by differing stress patterns across the cavity array and its overburden, which are in turn an important factor for the formation of sinkholes and uvalalike depressions. For growth scenario (1), a stable compression arch is established around the entire cavity array, hindering sinkhole collapse into individual cavities and favouring block-wise, relatively even subsidence across the whole cavity array. In contrast, for growth scenario (2), the stress system is more heterogeneous, such that local stress concentrations exist around individual cavities, leading to stress interactions and local wall/overburden fractures. Consequently, sinkhole collapses occur in individual cavities, which results in uneven, differential subsidence within a larger-scale depression. Depending on material properties of the cavity-hosting material and the overburden, the larger-scale depression forms either by sinkhole coalescence or by widespread subsidence linked geometrically to the entire cavity array. The results from models with growth scenario (2) are in close agreement with surface morphological and subsurface geophysical observations from an evaporite karst area on the eastern shore of the Dead Sea.
Thermokarst results from the thawing of ice-rich permafrost and alters the biogeochemical cycling in the Arctic by reworking soil material and redistributing soil organic carbon (SOC) and total nitrogen (TN) along uplands, hillslopes, and lowlands. Understanding the impact of this redistribution is key to better estimating the storage of SOC in permafrost terrains. However, there are insufficient studies quantifying long-term impacts of thaw processes on the distribution of SOC and TN along hillslopes. We address this issue by providing estimates of SOC and TN stocks along the hillslopes of three valleys located on Herschel Island (Yukon, Canada), and by discussing the impact of hillslope thermokarst on the variability of SOC and TN stocks. We found that the average SOC and TN 0-100 cm stocks in the valleys were 26.4 +/- 8.9 kg C m(-2) and 2.1 +/- 0.6 kg N m(-2). We highlight the strong variability in the soils physical and geochemical properties within hillslope positions. High SOC stocks were found at the summits, essentially due to burial of organic matter by cryoturbation, and at the toeslopes due to impeded drainage which favored peat formation and SOC accumulation. The average carbon-to-nitrogen ratio in the valleys was 12.9, ranging from 9.7 to 18.9, and was significantly higher at the summits compared to the backslopes and footslopes (p < 0.05), suggesting a degradation of SOC downhill. Carbon and nitrogen contents and stocks were significantly lower on 16% of the sites that were previously affected by hillslope thermokarst (p < 0.05). Our results showed that lateral redistribution of SOC and TN due to hillslope thermokarst has a strong impact on the SOC storage in ice-rich permafrost terrains.
The one-dimensional (1-D) approach is still the dominant method to incorporate site effects in engineering applications. To bridge the 1-D to multidimensional site response analysis, we develop quantitative criteria and a reproducible method to identify KiK-net sites with significant deviations from 1-D behavior. We found that 158 out of 354 show two-dimensional (2-D) and three-dimensional (3-D) effects, extending the resonance toward shorter periods at which 2-D or 3-D site effects exceed those of the classic 1-D configurations and imposing an additional amplification to that caused by the impedance contrast alone. Such 2-D and 3-D effects go along with a large within-station ground motion variability. Remarkably, these effects are found to be more pronounced for small impedance contrasts. While it is hardly possible to identify common features in ground motion behavior for stations with similar topography typologies, it is not over-conservative to apply a safety factor to account for 2-D and 3-D site effects in ground motion modeling.
Ongoing development of dynamical atmosphere-ocean general circulation models keep expectations high regarding seasonal predictions of Indian monsoon rainfall. This study compares past and present skill of four currently operating forecasting systems, CFSv2 from NCEP, ENSEMBLES, System 4 and the newest SEAS5 from ECMWF, by analysing correlations of respective hindcasts with observed all-India summer rainfall. For the common time period 1982-2005, only ENSEMBLES and CFSv2 give significantly skilful forecasts. It is shown that skill is highly dependent on the chosen time period. Especially the intense El Nino of 1997 seems to degrade the predictions, most notably for SEAS4 and SEAS5 which seem to be linked to El Nino too strongly. We show that by discarding that year, a regime shift in the 1990s is no longer visible. Overall, we observe a convergence of skill towards the present with correlations of about 0.4 for CFSv2 and of 0.6 for System 4 and SEAS5.
Geomagnetic paleosecular variations (PSVs) are an expression of geodynamo processes inside the Earth’s liquid outer core. These paleomagnetic time series provide insights into the properties of the Earth’s magnetic field, from normal behavior with a dominating dipolar geometry, over field crises, such as pronounced intensity lows and geomagnetic excursions with a distorted field geometry, to the complete reversal of the dominating dipole contribution. Particularly, long-term high-resolution and high-quality PSV time series are needed for properly reconstructing the higher frequency components in the spectrum of geomagnetic field variations and for a better understanding of the effects of smoothing during the recording of such paleomagnetic records by sedimentary archives.
In this doctorate study, full vector paleomagnetic records were derived from 16 sediment cores recovered from the southeastern Black Sea. Age models are based on radiocarbon dating and correlations of warming/cooling cycles monitored by high-resolution X-ray fluorescence (XRF) elementary ratios as well as ice-rafted debris (IRD) in Black Sea sediments to the sequence of ‘Dansgaard-Oeschger’ (DO) events defined from Greenland ice core oxygen isotope stratigraphy.
In order to identify the carriers of magnetization in Black Sea sediments, core MSM33-55-1 recovered from the southeast Black Sea was subjected to detailed rock magnetic and electron microscopy investigations. The younger part of core MSM33-55-1 was continuously deposited since 41 ka. Before 17.5 ka, the magnetic minerals were dominated by a mixture of greigite (Fe3S4) and titanomagnetite (Fe3-xTixO4) in samples with SIRM/κLF >10 kAm-1, or exclusively by titanomagnetite in samples with SIRM/κLF ≤10 kAm-1. It was found that greigite is generally present as crustal aggregates in locally reducing micro-environments. From 17.5 ka to 8.3 ka, the dominant magnetic mineral in this transition phase was changing from greigite (17.5 – ~10.0 ka) to probably silicate-hosted titanomagnetite (~10.0 – 8.3 ka). After 8.3 ka, the anoxic Black Sea was a favorable environment for the formation of non-magnetic pyrite (FeS2) framboids.
Aiming to avoid compromising of paleomagnetic data by erroneous directions carried by greigite, paleomagnetic data from samples with SIRM/κLF >10 kAm-1, shown to contain greigite by various methods, were removed from obtained records. Consequently, full vector paleomagnetic records, comprising directional data and relative paleointensity (rPI), were derived only from samples with SIRM/κLF ≤10 kAm-1 from 16 Black Sea sediment cores. The obtained data sets were used to create a stack covering the time window between 68.9 and 14.5 ka with temporal resolution between 40 and 100 years, depending on sedimentation rates.
At 64.5 ka, according to obtained results from Black Sea sediments, the second deepest minimum in relative paleointensity during the past 69 ka occurred. The field minimum during MIS 4 is associated with large declination swings beginning about 3 ka before the minimum. While a swing to 50°E is associated with steep inclinations (50-60°) according to the coring site at 42°N, the subsequent declination swing to 30°W is associated with shallow inclinations of down to 40°. Nevertheless, these large deviations from the direction of a geocentric axial dipole field (I=61°, D=0°) still can not yet be termed as 'excursional', since latitudes of corresponding VGPs only reach down to 51.5°N (120°E) and 61.5°N (75°W), respectively. However, these VGP positions at opposite sides of the globe are linked with VGP drift rates of up to 0.2° per year in between. These extreme secular variations might be the mid-latitude expression of the Norwegian–Greenland Sea excursion found at several sites much further North in Arctic marine sediments between 69°N and 81°N.
At about 34.5 ka, the Mono Lake excursion is evidenced in the stacked Black Sea PSV record by both a rPI minimum and directional shifts. Associated VGPs from stacked Black Sea data migrated from Alaska, via central Asia and the Tibetan Plateau, to Greenland, performing a clockwise loop. This agrees with data recorded in the Wilson Creek Formation, USA., and Arctic sediment core PS2644-5 from the Iceland Sea, suggesting a dominant dipole field. On the other hand, the Auckland lava flows, New Zealand, the Summer Lake, USA., and Arctic sediment core from ODP Site-919 yield distinct VGPs located in the central Pacific Ocean due to a presumably non-dipole (multi-pole) field configuration.
A directional anomaly at 18.5 ka, associated with pronounced swings in inclination and declination, as well as a low in rPI, is probably contemporaneous with the Hilina Pali excursion, originally reported from Hawaiian lava flows. However, virtual geomagnetic poles (VGPs) calculated from Black Sea sediments are not located at latitudes lower than 60° N, which denotes normal, though pronounced secular variations. During the postulated Hilina Pali excursion, the VGPs calculated from Black Sea data migrated clockwise only along the coasts of the Arctic Ocean from NE Canada (20.0 ka), via Alaska (18.6 ka) and NE Siberia (18.0 ka) to Svalbard (17.0 ka), then looping clockwise through the Eastern Arctic Ocean.
In addition to the Mono Lake and the Norwegian–Greenland Sea excursions, the Laschamp excursion was evidenced in the Black Sea PSV record with the lowest paleointensities at about 41.6 ka and a short-term (~500 years) full reversal centered at 41 ka. These excursions are further evidenced by an abnormal PSV index, though only the Laschamp and the Mono Lake excursions exhibit excursional VGP positions. The stacked Black Sea paleomagnetic record was also converted into one component parallel to the direction expected from a geocentric axial dipole (GAD) and two components perpendicular to it, representing only non-GAD components of the geomagnetic field. The Laschamp and the Norwegian–Greenland Sea excursions are characterized by extremely low GAD components, while the Mono Lake excursion is marked by large non-GAD contributions. Notably, negative values of the GAD component, indicating a fully reversed geomagnetic field, are observed only during the Laschamp excursion.
In summary, this doctoral thesis reconstructed high-resolution and high-fidelity PSV records from SE Black Sea sediments. The obtained record comprises three geomagnetic excursions, the Norwegian–Greenland Sea excursion, the Laschamp excursion, and the Mono Lake excursion. They are characterized by abnormal secular variations of different amplitudes centered at about 64.5 ka, 41.0 ka and 34.5 ka, respectively. In addition, the obtained PSV record from the Black Sea do not provide evidence for the postulated 'Hilina Pali excursion' at about 18.5 ka. Anyway, the obtained Black Sea paleomagnetic record, covering field fluctuations from normal secular variations, over excursions, to a short but full reversal, points to a geomagnetic field characterized by a large dynamic range in intensity and a highly variable superposition of dipole and non-dipole contributions from the geodynamo during the past 68.9 to 14.5 ka.
Several hydraulic fracturing tests were performed in boreholes located in central Hungary in order to determine the in-situ stress for a geological site investigation. At a depth of about 540m, the observed pressure versus time curves in mica schist with low dip angle foliation shows atypical pressure versus time results. After each pressurization cycle, the fracture breakdown pressure in the first fracturing cycle is lower than the refracturing or reopening pressure in the subsequent pressurizations. It is assumed that the viscosity of the drilling mud and observed foliation of the mica schist have a significant influence on the pressure values. In order to study this problem, numerical modeling was performed using the distinct element code particle flow code, which has been proven to be a valuable tool to investigate rock engineering problems such as hydraulic fracturing. The two-dimensional version of the code applied in this study can simulate hydro-mechanically coupled fluid flow in crystalline rock with low porosity and pre-existing fractures. In this study, the effect of foliation angle and fluid viscosity on the peak pressure is tested. The atypical characteristics of the pressure behaviour are interpreted so that mud with higher viscosity penetrates the sub-horizontal foliation plane, blocks the plane of weakness and makes the partly opened fracture tight and increase the pore pressure which decreases slowly with time. We see this viscous blocking effect as one explanation for the observed increase in fracture reopening pressure in subsequent pressurization cycles.
The question of whether urbanization contributes to increasing carbon dioxide emissions has been mainly investigated via scaling relationships with population or population density. However, these approaches overlook the correlations between population and area, and ignore possible interactions between these quantities. Here, we propose a generalized framework that simultaneously considers the effects of population and area along with possible interactions between these urban metrics. Our results significantly improve the description of emissions and reveal the coupled role between population and density on emissions. These models show that variations in emissions associated with proportionate changes in population or density may not only depend on the magnitude of these changes but also on the initial values of these quantities. For US areas, the larger the city, the higher is the impact of changing its population or density on its emissions; but population changes always have a greater effect on emissions than population density.
The propagation of a seismic rupture on a fault introduces spatial variations in the seismic wave field surrounding the fault. This directivity effect results in larger shaking amplitudes in the rupture propagation direction. Its seismic radiation pattern also causes amplitude variations between the strike-normal and strike-parallel components of horizontal ground motion. We investigated the landslide response to these effects during the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (M-w 7.1) in central Kyushu (Japan). Although the distribution of some 1500 earthquake-triggered landslides as a function of rupture distance is consistent with the observed Arias intensity, the landslides were more concentrated to the northeast of the southwest-northeast striking rupture. We examined several landslide susceptibility factors: hillslope inclination, the median amplification factor (MAF) of ground shaking, lithology, land cover, and topographic wetness. None of these factors sufficiently explains the landslide distribution or orientation (aspect), although the landslide head scarps have an elevated hillslope inclination and MAF. We propose a new physics-based ground-motion model (GMM) that accounts for the seismic rupture effects, and we demonstrate that the low-frequency seismic radiation pattern is consistent with the overall landslide distribution. Its spatial pattern is influenced by the rupture directivity effect, whereas landslide aspect is influenced by amplitude variations between the fault-normal and fault-parallel motion at frequencies < 2 Hz. This azimuth dependence implies that comparable landslide concentrations can occur at different distances from the rupture. This quantitative link between the prevalent landslide aspect and the low-frequency seismic radiation pattern can improve coseismic landslide hazard assessment.
The significance of phytoliths for the control of silicon (Si) fluxes from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems has been recognized as a key factor. Humankind actively influences Si fluxes by intensified land use, i.e., agriculture and forestry, on a global scale. We hypothesized phytolith distribution and assemblages in soils of agricultural and forestry sites to be controlled by vegetation (which is directed by land use) with direct effects on extractable Si fractions driven mainly by phytolith characteristics, i.e., dissolution status (dissolution signs) and morphology (morphotype proportions). To test our hypothesis we combined different chemical extraction methods (calcium chloride, ammonium oxalate, Tiron) for the quantification of different Si fractions (plant available Si, Si adsorbed to/occluded in pedogenic oxides/hydroxides, amorphous Si) and microscopic techniques (light microscopy, confocal laser scanning microscopy, scanning electron microscopy) for detailed analyses of phytoliths extracted using gravimetric separation (physical extraction) from exemplary loess soils of agricultural (arable land and grassland/meadow) and forestry (beech and pine) sites in Poland. We found differences in dissolution signs, morphotype proportions, and vertical distribution of phytoliths in soil horizons per site. In general, dominant morphotypes of assignable phytoliths in the studied soil profiles were elongate phytoliths and short cells, both of which are typical for grass-dominated vegetation. However, the organic layers of forest soils were dominated by globular phytoliths, which are typical indicators for mosses. As expected soil horizons under different vegetation generally were characterized by differences in extractable Si fractions, especially in the upper soil horizons. However, phytogenic Si pools counter-intuitively showed no correlations with chemically extracted Si fractions and soil pH at all. Our findings indicate that it is necessary to combine microscopic analyses and Si extraction techniques for examinations of Si cycling in biogeosystems, because extractions of Si fractions alone do not allow drawing any conclusions about phytolith characteristics or interactions between phytolith pools and chemically extractable Si fractions and do not necessarily reflect phytogenic Si pool quantities in soils and vice versa.
Proxy records from climate archives provide evidence about past climate changes, but the recorded signal is affected by non-climate-related effects as well as time uncertainty. As proxy-based climate reconstructions are frequently used to test climate models and to quantitatively infer past climate, we need to improve our understanding of the proxy record signal content as well as the uncertainties involved. In this study, we empirically estimate signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) of temperature proxy records used in global compilations of the middle to late Holocene (last 6000 years). This is achieved through a comparison of the correlation of proxy time series from nearby sites of three compilations and model time series extracted at the proxy sites from two transient climate model simulations: a Holocene simulation of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM model and the Holocene part of the TraCE-21ka simulation. In all comparisons, we found the mean correlations of the proxy time series on centennial to millennial timescales to be low (R < 0.2), even for nearby sites, which resulted in low SNR estimates. The estimated SNRs depend on the assumed time uncertainty of the proxy records, the timescale analysed, and the model simulation used. Using the spatial correlation structure of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM simulation, the estimated SNRs on centennial timescales ranged from 0.05 - assuming no time uncertainty - to 0.5 for a time uncertainty of 400 years. On millennial timescales, the estimated SNRs were generally higher. Use of the TraCE-21ka correlation structure generally resulted in lower SNR estimates than for ECHAM5/MPI-OM. As the number of available high-resolution proxy records continues to grow, a more detailed analysis of the signal content of specific proxy types should become feasible in the near future. The estimated low signal content of Holocene temperature compilations should caution against over-interpretation of these multi-proxy and multisite syntheses until further studies are able to facilitate a better characterisation of the signal content in paleoclimate records.
Shear-waves are the most energetic body-waves radiated from an earthquake, and are responsible for the destruction of engineered structures. In both short-term emergency response and long-term risk forecasting of disaster-resilient built environment, it is critical to predict spatially accurate distribution of shear-wave amplitudes. Although decades’ old theory proposes a deterministic, highly anisotropic, four-lobed shear-wave radiation pattern, from lack of convincing evidence, most empirical ground-shaking prediction models settled for an oversimplified stochastic radiation pattern that is isotropic on average. Today, using the large datasets of uniformly processed seismograms from several strike, normal, reverse, and oblique-slip earthquakes across the globe, compiled specifically for engineering applications, we could reveal, quantify, and calibrate the frequency-, distance-, and style-of-faulting dependent transition of shear-wave radiation between a stochastic-isotropic and a deterministic-anisotropic phenomenon. Consequent recalibration of empirical ground-shaking models dramatically improved their predictions: with isodistant anisotropic variations of ±40%, and 8% reduction in uncertainty. The outcomes presented here can potentially trigger a reappraisal of several practical issues in engineering seismology, particularly in seismic ground-shaking studies and seismic hazard and risk assessment.
Measuring (dis)similarity between ecosystem states is a key theme in ecology. Much of community and ecosystem ecology is devoted to searching for patterns in ecosystem similarity from an external observer's viewpoint, using variables such as species abundances, measures of diversity and complexity. However, from the point of view of organisms in the ecosystem, proportional population growth rates are the only relevant aspect of ecosystem state, because natural selection acts on groups of organisms with different proportional population growth rates. We therefore argue that two ecosystem states are equivalent if and only if, for each species they contain, the proportional population growth rate does not differ between the states. Based on this result, we develop species-level and aggregated summary measures of ecosystem state and discuss their ecological meaning. We illustrate our approach using a long-term dataset on the plankton community from the Central European Lake Constance. We show that the first three principal components of proportional population growth rates describe most of the variation in ecosystem state in Lake Constance. We strongly recommend using proportional population growth rates and the derived equivalence classes for comparative ecosystem studies. This opens up new perspectives on important existing topics such as alternative stable ecosystem states, community assembly, and the processes generating regularities in ecosystems.
Geysers are hot springs whose frequency of water eruptions remain poorly understood. We set up a local broadband seismic network for 1 year at Strokkur geyser, Iceland, and developed an unprecedented catalog of 73,466 eruptions. We detected 50,135 single eruptions but find that the geyser is also characterized by sets of up to six eruptions in quick succession. The number of single to sextuple eruptions exponentially decreased, while the mean waiting time after an eruption linearly increased (3.7 to 16.4 min). While secondary eruptions within double to sextuple eruptions have a smaller mean seismic amplitude, the amplitude of the first eruption is comparable for all eruption types. We statistically model the eruption frequency assuming discharges proportional to the eruption multiplicity and a constant probability for subsequent events within a multituple eruption. The waiting time after an eruption is predictable but not the type or amplitude of the next one. <br /> Plain Language Summary Geysers are springs that often erupt in hot water fountains. They erupt more often than volcanoes but are quite similar. Nevertheless, it is poorly understood how often volcanoes and also geysers erupt. We created a list of 73,466 eruption times of Strokkur geyser, Iceland, from 1 year of seismic data. The geyser erupted one to six times in quick succession. We found 50,135 single eruptions but only 1 sextuple eruption, while the mean waiting time increased from 3.7 min after single eruptions to 16.4 min after sextuple eruptions. Mean amplitudes of each eruption type were higher for single eruptions, but all first eruptions in a succession were similar in height. Assuming a constant heat inflow at depth, we can predict the waiting time after an eruption but not the type or amplitude of the next one.
Costs of adaptation in the developing world have been mostly equated to those of climate proofing infrastructure under the assumption of unconstrained knowledge and planning capacities. To correct this, we introduce a cost-scaling methodology estimating sectoral investments to enhance the knowledge and planning capacities of countries based on an empirical collection of 385 climate-related projects. We estimate that circa 9.2 billion USD are required for financing knowledge and planning activities in developing countries in 2015. The agricultural and water sectors demand the higher investments ? 3.8 and 3.5 billion USD, respectively. Average investments between 2015 and 2050 are projected at 7 billion USD per year ? the largest fraction of which (4 billion) in Africa. Investments in this study were found to constitute approximately 40%, 20?60% and 5?15% of previous cost estimates to climate-proof infrastructure in the agricultural, water, and coastal sectors, respectively. The effort to finance the knowledge and planning capacities in developing countries is therefore not marginal relative to the costs of adapting infrastructure. The findings underline the potential of using empirical collections of climate-related projects for adaptation cost assessments as complementary to process and economic models.
There is a shortage of sediment-routing monitoring worldwide, despite its relevance to environmental processes. In drylands, where water resources are more vulnerable to the sediment dynamics, this flaw is even more harmful. In the semi-arid Caatinga biome in the North-east of Brazil, rivers are almost all intermittent and hydro-sedimentological monitoring is scarce. In the biome, water supply derives from thousands of surface reservoirs, whose water availability is liable to be reduced by siltation and sediment-related pollution. The goal of this research was to evaluate the potential of multi-temporal high-resolution satellite imagery (RapidEye) to assess the suspended sediment concentration (SSC) in the medium-sized intermittent Jaguaribe River, Brazil, during a 5-year period. We validated 15 one-, two- and three-band indices for SSC estimation based on RapidEye spectral bands deduced in the context of the present investigation and nine indices proposed in the literature for other optical sensors, by comparing them with in-situ concentration data. The in-situ SSC data ranged from 67 mg.L-1 to 230 mg.L-1. We concluded that RapidEye images can assess moderate SSC of intermittent rivers, even when their discharge is low. The RapidEye indices performed better than those from literature. The spectral band that best represented SSC was the near infrared, whose performance improved when associated with the green band. This conclusion agrees with literature findings for diverse sedimentological contexts. The three-band spectral indices performed worse than those with only one or two spectral bands, showing that the use of a third band did not enhance the model ability. Besides, we show that the hydrological characteristics of semi-arid intermittent rivers generate difficulties to monitor SSC using optical satellite remote sensing, such as time-concentrated sediment yield; and its association with recent rainfall events and, therefore, with cloudy sky.
The novel space-borne Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R) technique has recently shown promise in monitoring the ocean state and surface wind speed with high spatial coverage and unprecedented sampling rate. The L-band signals of GNSS are structurally able to provide a higher quality of observations from areas covered by dense clouds and under intense precipitation, compared to those signals at higher frequencies from conventional ocean scatterometers. As a result, studying the inner core of cyclones and improvement of severe weather forecasting and cyclone tracking have turned into the main objectives of GNSS-R satellite missions such as Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS). Nevertheless, the rain attenuation impact on GNSS-R wind speed products is not yet well documented. Evaluating the rain attenuation effects on this technique is significant since a small change in the GNSS-R can potentially cause a considerable bias in the resultant wind products at intense wind speeds. Based on both empirical evidence and theory, wind speed is inversely proportional to derived bistatic radar cross section with a natural logarithmic relation, which introduces high condition numbers (similar to ill-posed conditions) at the inversions to high wind speeds. This paper presents an evaluation of the rain signal attenuation impact on the bistatic radar cross section and the derived wind speed. This study is conducted simulating GNSS-R delay-Doppler maps at different rain rates and reflection geometries, considering that an empirical data analysis at extreme wind intensities and rain rates is impossible due to the insufficient number of observations from these severe conditions. Finally, the study demonstrates that at a wind speed of 30 m/s and incidence angle of 30 degrees, rain at rates of 10, 15, and 20 mm/h might cause overestimation as large as approximate to 0.65 m/s (2%), 1.00 m/s (3%), and 1.3 m/s (4%), respectively, which are still smaller than the CYGNSS required uncertainty threshold. The simulations are conducted in a pessimistic condition (severe continuous rainfall below the freezing height and over the entire glistening zone) and the bias is expected to be smaller in size in real environments.
Although quantitative isotope data from speleothems has been used to evaluate isotope-enabled model simulations, currently no consensus exists regarding the most appropriate methodology through which to achieve this. A number of modelling groups will be running isotope-enabled palaeoclimate simulations in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, so it is timely to evaluate different approaches to using the speleothem data for data–model comparisons. Here, we illustrate this using 456 globally distributed speleothem δ18O records from an updated version of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database and palaeoclimate simulations generated using the ECHAM5-wiso isotope-enabled atmospheric circulation model. We show that the SISAL records reproduce the first-order spatial patterns of isotopic variability in the modern day, strongly supporting the application of this dataset for evaluating model-derived isotope variability into the past. However, the discontinuous nature of many speleothem records complicates the process of procuring large numbers of records if data–model comparisons are made using the traditional approach of comparing anomalies between a control period and a given palaeoclimate experiment. To circumvent this issue, we illustrate techniques through which the absolute isotope values during any time period could be used for model evaluation. Specifically, we show that speleothem isotope records allow an assessment of a model's ability to simulate spatial isotopic trends. Our analyses provide a protocol for using speleothem isotope data for model evaluation, including screening the observations to take into account the impact of speleothem mineralogy on δ18O values, the optimum period for the modern observational baseline and the selection of an appropriate time window for creating means of the isotope data for palaeo-time-slices.
Three small stalagmites from Zoolithencave (southern Germany) show visible laminae, which consist of a clear and a brownish, pigmented layer pair. This potentially provides the opportunity to construct precise chronologies by counting annual laminae. The growth period of the three stalagmites was constrained by the C-14 bomb peak in the youngest part of all three stalagmites and C-14-dating of a piece of charcoal in the consolidated base part of stalagmite Zoo-rez-2. These data suggest an age of AD 1970 for the top laminae and a lower age limit of AD 1973-1682 or AD 1735-1778. Laminae were counted and their thickness determined on scanned thin sections of all stalagmites. On stalagmites Zoo-rez-1 and -2, three tracks were measured near the growth axes, each separated into three sections at prominent anchor laminae (I, II, III). Each section was replicated three times (a, b, c). For Zoo-rez-3, only one track was measured. The total number of laminae counted for Zoo-rez-1 ranges from 138 to 177, for Zoo-rez-2 from 119 to 145, and for Zoo-rez-3 from 159 to 166. The numbers agree well with the range constrained by the bomb peak and the age of the charcoal, which supports the annual origin of the laminae. The replicated measurements of the different tracks as well as the three different tracks on the stalagmites Zoo-rez-1 and-2 were cross-dated using the TSAP-Win (R) tree-ring software. This software is very useful for cross-dating because it enables to insert or delete missing or false laminae as well as identifying common pattern by shifting the series back and forth in time. However, visual inspection of the thin sections was necessary to confirm detection of missing or false laminae by TSAP-Win (R). For all three Zoo-rez speleothems, crossdating of the mean lamina thickness series was not possible due to a missing common pattern. The cross-dating procedure results in three refined chronologies for the three Zoo-rez stalagmites of ranging from AD 1821-1970 (Zoo-rez-1), AD 1835-1970 (Zoo-rez-2), and AD 1808-1970 (Zoo-rez-3).
Evolution of Large-Scale Magnetic Fields From Near-Earth Space During the Last 11 Solar Cycles
(2019)
We use hourly mean magnetic field measurements from 34 midlatitude geomagnetic observatories between 1900 and 2015 to investigate the long-term evolution and driving mechanism of the large-scale external magnetic field at ground. The Hourly Magnetospheric Currents index (HMC) is derived as a refinement of the Annual Magnetospheric Currents index (HMC, Pick & Korte, 2017, https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggx367). HMC requires an extensive revision of the observatory hourly means. It depends on three third party geomagnetic field models used to eliminate the core, the crustal, and the ionospheric solar-quiet field contributions. We mitigate the dependency of HMC on the core field model by subtracting only nondipolar components of the model from the data. The separation of the residual (dipolar) signal into internal and external (HMC) parts is the main methodological challenge. Observatory crustal biases are updated with respect to AMC, and the solar-quiet field estimation is extended to the past based on a reconstruction of solar radio flux (F10.7). We find that HMC has more power at low frequencies (periods = 1 year) than the Dcx index, especially at periods relevant to the solar cycle. Most of the slow variations in HMC can be explained by the open solar magnetic flux. There is a weakly decreasing linear trend in absolute HMC from 1900 to present, which depends sensitively on the data rejection criteria at early years. HMC is well suited for studying long-term variations of the geomagnetic field.
Stochastic modeling is a common practice for modeling uncertainty in hydrogeology. In stochastic modeling, aquifer properties are characterized by their probability density functions (PDFs). The Bayesian approach for inverse modeling is often used to assimilate information from field measurements collected at a site into properties’ posterior PDFs. This necessitates the definition of a prior PDF, characterizing the knowledge of hydrological properties before undertaking any investigation at the site, and usually coming from previous studies at similar sites. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian hierarchical algorithm capable of assimilating various information–like point measurements, bounds and moments–into a single, informative PDF that we call ex-situ prior. This informative PDF summarizes the ex-situ information available about a hydrogeological parameter at a site of interest, which can then be used as a prior PDF in future studies at the site. We demonstrate the behavior of the algorithm on several synthetic case studies, compare it to other methods described in the literature, and illustrate the approach by applying it to a public open-access hydrogeological dataset.