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The Karaburun Peninsula, which is considered part of the Anatolide-Tauride Block of Turkey, contains clastic and carbonate sequences deposited on the northern margin of Gondwana. The Palaeozoic clastic sequence, which is intruded by the Early Triassic granitoid and tectonically overlies a Mesozoic melange sequence, can be divided into three subunits: a lower clastic subunit consisting of a sandstone-shale alternation, an upper clastic subunit consisting of black chert-bearing shales, sandstone and conglomerate, and a Permo-Carboniferous carbonate subunit. The lower Triassic Karaburun I-type granitoid has a high initial Sr-87/Sr-86 ratio (0.709021-0.709168), and low Nd-143/Nd-144 ratio (0.512004-0.512023) and epsilon Nd (-5.34 to -5.70) isotopic values. Geochronological data indicate a crystallization (intrusion) age of 247.1 +/- 2.0 Ma (Scythian). Geochemically, the acidic magmatism reflects a subduction-related continental-arc basin tectonic setting, which can be linked to the opening of the northern branch of Neo-Tethys as a continental back-arc rifting basin on the northern margin of Gondwana. This can be related to the closure through southward subduction of the Palaeotethys Ocean beneath Gondwana.
A parameterization for the motion of ice-shelf fronts on a Cartesian grid in finite-difference land-ice models is presented. The scheme prevents artificial thinning of the ice shelf at its edge, which occurs due to the finite resolution of the model. The intuitive numerical implementation diminishes numerical dispersion at the ice front and enables the application of physical boundary conditions to improve the calculation of stress and velocity fields throughout the ice-sheet-shelf system. Numerical properties of this subgrid modification are assessed in the Potsdam Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM-PIK) for different geometries in one and two horizontal dimensions and are verified against an analytical solution in a flow-line setup.
Aiming at the stimulation of intrinsic microbial activity, pulses of pure oxygen or pressurized air were recurrently injected into groundwater polluted with chlorobenzene. To achieve well-controlled conditions and intensive sampling, a large, vertical underground tank was filled with the local unconfined sandy aquifer material. In the course of two individual gas injections, one using pure oxygen and one using pressurized air, the mass transfer of individual gas species between trapped gas phase and groundwater was studied. Field data on the dissolved gas composition in the groundwater were combined with a kinetic model on gas dissolution and transport in porous media. Phase mass transfer of individual gas components caused a temporary enrichment of nitrogen, and to a lower degree of methane, in trapped gas leading to the formation of excess dissolved nitrogen levels downgradient from the dissolving gas phase. By applying a novel gas sampling method for dissolved gases in groundwater it was shown that dissolved nitrogen can be used as a partitioning tracer to indicate complete gas dissolution in porous media.
A poorly understood lag time of 15-20 m.y. exists between the initial Arabia-Eurasia continental collision in late Eocene to early Oligocene time and the acceleration of tectonic and sedimentary processes across the collision zone in the early to late Miocene. The late Eocene to Miocene-Pliocene clastic and shallow-marine sedimentary rocks of the Kond, Eyvanekey, and Semnan Basins in the Alborz Mountains (northern Iran) offer the possibility to track the evolution of this orogen in the framework of collision processes. A transition from volcaniclastic submarine deposits to shallow-marine evaporites and terrestrial sediments occurred shortly after 36 Ma in association with reversals in sediment provenance, strata tilting, and erosional unroofing. These events followed the termination of subduction arc magmatism and marked a changeover from an extensional to a contractional regime in response to initiation of continental collision with the subduction of stretched Arabian lithosphere. This early stage of collision produced topographic relief associated with shallow foreland basins, suggesting that shortening and tectonic loading occurred at low rates. Starting from the early Miocene (17.5 Ma), flexural subsidence in response to foreland basin initiation occurred. Fast sediment accumulation rates and erosional unroofing trends point to acceleration of shortening by the early Miocene. We suggest that the lag time between the initiation of continental collision (36 Ma) and the acceleration of regional deformation (20-17.5 Ma) reflects a two-stage collision process, involving the "soft" collision of stretched lithosphere at first and "hard" collision following the arrival of unstretched Arabian continental litho sphere in the subduction zone.
End member mixing analysis (EMMA) is a commonly applied method to identify and quantify the dominant runoff producing sources of water. It employs tracers to determine the dimensionality of the hydrologic system. Many EMMA studies have been conducted using two to six tracers, with some of the main tracers being Ca, Na, Cl(-), water isotopes, and alkalinity. Few studies use larger tracer sets including minor trace elements such as Li, Rb, Sr, and Ba. None of the studies has addressed the question of the tracer set size and composition, despite the fact that these determine which and how many end members (EM) will be identified. We examine how tracer set size and composition affects the conceptual model that results from an EMMA. We developed an automatic procedure that conducts EMMA while iteratively changing tracer set size and composition. We used a set of 14 tracers and 9 EMs. The validity of the resulting conceptual models was investigated under the aspects of dimensionality, EM combinations, and contributions to stream water. From the 16,369 possibilities, 23 delivered plausible results. The resulting conceptual models are highly sensitive to the tracer set size and composition. The moderate reproducibility of EM contributions indicates a still missing EM. It also emphasizes that the major elements are not always the most useful tracers and that larger tracer sets have an enhanced capacity to avoid false conclusions about catchment functioning. The presented approach produces results that may not be apparent from the traditional approach and it is a first step to add the idea of statistical significance to the EMMA approach.
The seismicity pattern along the San Andreas fault near Parkfield and Cholame, California, varies distinctly over a length of only fifty kilometres. Within the brittle crust, the presence of frictionally weak minerals, fault-weakening high fluid pressures and chemical weakening are considered possible causes of an anomalously weak fault northwest of Parkfield(1-4). Non-volcanic tremor from lower-crustal and upper-mantle depths(5-7) is most pronounced about thirty kilometres southeast of Parkfield and is thought to be associated with high pore-fluid pressures at depth(8). Here we present geophysical evidence of fluids migrating into the creeping section of the San Andreas fault that seem to originate in the region of the uppermost mantle that also stimulates tremor, and evidence that along-strike variations in tremor activity and amplitude are related to strength variations in the lower crust and upper mantle. Interconnected fluids can explain a deep zone of anomalously low electrical resistivity that has been imaged by magnetotelluric data southwest of the Parkfield-Cholame segment. Near Cholame, where fluids seem to be trapped below a high-resistivity cap, tremor concentrates adjacent to the inferred fluids within a mechanically strong zone of high resistivity. By contrast, sub-vertical zones of low resistivity breach the entire crust near the drill hole of the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth, northwest of Parkfield, and imply pathways for deep fluids into the eastern fault block, coincident with a mechanically weak crust and the lower tremor amplitudes in the lower crust. Fluid influx to the fault system is consistent with hypotheses of fault-weakening high fluid pressures in the brittle crust.
The aim of this paper is to estimate the Hurst parameter of Fractional Gaussian Noise (FGN) using Bayesian inference. We propose an estimation technique that takes into account the full correlation structure of this process. Instead of using the integrated time series and then applying an estimator for its Hurst exponent, we propose to use the noise signal directly. As an application we analyze the time series of the Nile River, where we find a posterior distribution which is compatible with previous findings. In addition, our technique provides natural error bars for the Hurst exponent.
Tectonic and metamorphic data for the Central Alps (Switzerland/Italy) are used to discuss this classic example of a Barrovian metamorphic terrain, notably the evolution of its thermal structure in space and time. Available P-T-t data indicate variable contributions of advective and conductive heat transport during collision and subsequent cooling and exhumation. Some areas experienced a prolonged period of partial melting while other areas, at the same time, show but moderate heating. The Barrow-type metamorphic field gradient observed in the final orogen is the result of two distinct tectonic processes, with their related advective and conductive heat transport processes. The two tectonic processes are (1) accretion of material within a subduction channel related to decompression and emplacement of high-pressure units in the middle crust and (2) wedging and related nappe formation in the continental lower plate. The second process postdates the first one. Wedging and underthrusting of continental lower plate material produces heat input into lower crustal levels, and this process is responsible for predominantly conductive heat transport in the overlying units. The interacting processes lead to different maximum temperatures at different times, producing the final Barrovian metamorphic field gradient. The south experienced rapid cooling, whereas the north shows moderate cooling rates. This discrepancy principally reflects differences in the temperature distribution in the deeper crust prior to cooling. Differences in the local thermal gradient that prevailed before the cooling also determined the relationships between cooling rate and exhumation rate in the different areas. Citation: Berger, A., S. M. Schmid, M. Engi, R. Bousquet, and M. Wiederkehr (2011), Mechanisms of mass and heat transport during Barrovian metamorphism: A discussion based on field evidence from the Central Alps (Switzerland/northern Italy), Tectonics, 30, TC1007, doi:10.1029/2009TC002622.
The Upper Cretaceous La Cova limestones (southern Pyrenees, Spain) host a rich and diverse larger foraminiferal fauna, which represents the first diversification of K-strategists after the mass extinction at the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary.
The stratigraphic distribution of the main taxa of larger foraminifera defines two assemblages. The first assemblage is characterised by the first appearance of lacazinids (Pseudolacazina loeblichi) and mean-dropsinids (Eofallotia simplex), by the large agglutinated Montsechiana montsechiensis, and by several species of complex rotalids (Rotorbinella campaniola, Iberorotalia reicheli, Orbitokhatina wondersmitti and Calcarinella schaubi). The second assemblage is defined by the appearance of Lacazina pyrenaica, Palandrosina taxyae and Martiguesia cyclamminiformis.
A late Coniacian-early Santonian age was so far accepted for the La Cova limestones, based on indirect correlation with deep-water fades bearing planktic foraminifers of the Dicarinella concavata zone. Strontium isotope stratigraphy, based on many samples of pristine biotic calcite of rudists and ostreids, indicates that the La Cova limestones span from the early Coniacian to the early-middle Santonian boundary. The first assemblage of larger foraminifera appears very close to the early-middle Coniacian boundary and reaches its full diversity by the middle Coniacian. The originations defining the second assemblage are dated as earliest Santonian: they represent important bioevents to define the Coniacian-Santonian boundary in the shallow-water facies of the South Pyrenean province.
By means of the calibration of strontium isotope stratigraphy to the Geological Time Scale, the larger foraminiferal assemblages of the La Cova limestones can be correlated to the standard biozonal scheme of ammonites, planktonic foraminifers and calcareous nannoplankton. This correlation is a first step toward a larger foraminifera standard biozonation for Upper Cretaceous carbonate platform facies.
The use of nano zerovalent iron (nZVI) for environmental remediation is a promising new technique for in situ remediation. Due to its high surface area and high reactivity, nZVI is able to dechlorinate organic contaminants and render them harmless. Limited mobility, due to fast aggregation and sedimentation of nZVI, limits the capability for source and plume remediation. Carbo-Iron is a newly developed material consisting of activated carbon particles (d50 = 0,8 µm) that are plated with nZVI particles. These particles combine the mobility of activated carbon and the reactivity of nZVI. This paper presents the first results of the transport experiments.
Well-preserved primary contact relationships between a Late Proterozoic metasedimentary and the metagranitic core and Palaeozoic cover series of the Menderes Massif have been recognized in the eastern part of the Cine submassif on a regional-scale. Metaconglomerates occur as laterally discontinuous channel-fill bodies close the base of the metaquartzarenite directly above the basement. The pebbles in the metaconglomerates consist mainly of different types of tourmaline-rich leucocratic granitoids, tourmalinite and schist in a sandy matrix. Petrographic features, geochemical compositions and zircon radiometric ages (549.6 +/- 3.7-552.3 +/- 3.1 Ma) of the diagnostic clasts of the metaconglomerates (e.g. leucocratic granitoids and tourmalinites) show excellent agreement with their in situ equivalents (549.0 +/- 5.4 Ma) occurring in the Pan-African basement as stocks and veins.
The correlation between clasts in the metaconglomerates and granitoids of the basement suggests that the primary contact between the basement and cover series is a regional unconformity (supra-Pan-African Unconformity) representing deep erosion of the Pan-African basement followed by the deposition of the cover series. Hence the usage of 'core-cover' terminology in the Menderes Massif is valid. Consequently, these new data preclude the views that the granitic precursors of the leucocratic orthogneisses are Tertiary intrusions.
Recent studies have shown that rhizosphere hydraulic properties may differ from those of the bulk soil. Specifically, mucilage at the root-soil interface may increase the rhizosphere water holding capacity and hydraulic conductivity during drying. The goal of this study was to point out the implications of such altered rhizosphere hydraulic properties for soil-plant water relations. We addressed this problem through modeling based on a steady-rate approach. We calculated the water flow toward a single root assuming that the rhizosphere and bulk soil were two concentric cylinders having different hydraulic properties. Based on our previous experimental results, we assumed that the rhizosphere had higher water holding capacity and unsaturated conductivity than the bulk soil. The results showed that the water potential gradients in the rhizosphere were much smaller than in the bulk soil. The consequence is that the rhizosphere attenuated and delayed the drop in water potential in the vicinity of the root surface when the soil dried. This led to increased water availability to plants, as well as to higher effective conductivity under unsaturated conditions. The reasons were two: (i) thanks to the high unsaturated conductivity of the rhizosphere, the radius of water uptake was extended from the root to the rhizosphere surface; and (ii) thanks to the high soil water capacity of the rhizosphere, the water depletion in the bulk soil was compensated by water depletion in the rhizosphere. We conclude that under the assumed conditions, the rhizosphere works as an optimal hydraulic conductor and as a reservoir of water that can be taken up when water in the bulk soil becomes limiting.
The role of bedrock fractures and rock mass strength is often considered a primary influence on the efficiency of surface processes and the morphology of landscapes. Quantifying bedrock characteristics at hillslope scales, however, has proven difficult. Here, we present a new field-based method for quantifying the depth and apparent density of bedrock fractures within the shallow subsurface based on seismic refraction surveys. We examine variations in subsurface fracture patterns in both Fiordland and the Southern Alps of New Zealand to better constrain the influence of bedrock properties in governing rates and patterns of landslides, as well as the morphology of threshold landscapes. We argue that intense tectonic deformation produces uniform bedrock fracturing with depth, whereas geomorphic processes produce strong fracture gradients focused within the shallow subsurface. Additionally, we argue that hillslope strength and stability are functions of both the intact rock strength and the density of bedrock fractures, such that for a given intact rock strength, a threshold fracture-density exists that delineates between stable and unstable rock masses. In the Southern Alps, tectonic forces have pervasively fractured intrinsically weak rock to the verge of instability, such that the entire rock mass is susceptible to failure and landslides can potentially extend to great depths. Conversely, in Fiordland, tectonic fracturing of the strong intact rock has produced fracture densities less than the regional stability threshold. Therefore, bedrock failure in Fiordland generally occurs only after geomorphic fracturing has further reduced the rock mass strength. This dependence on geomorphic fracturing limits the depths of bedrock landslides to within this geomorphically weakened zone.
Continent-ocean-transition across a trans-tensional margin segment: off Bear Island, Barents Sea
(2011)
P>A 410 km long Ocean Bottom Seismometer profile spanning from the Bear Island, Barents Sea to oceanic crust formed along the Mohns Ridge has been modelled by use of ray-tracing with regard to observed P-waves. The northeastern part of the model represents typical continental crust, thinned from ca. 30 km thickness beneath the Bear Island to ca. 13 km within the Continent-Ocean-Transition. Between the Hornsund FZ and the Kn circle divide legga Fault, a 3-4 km thick sedimentary basin, dominantly of Permian/Carboniferous age, is modelled beneath the ca. 1.5 km thick layer of volcanics (Vestbakken Volcanic Province). The P-wave velocity in the 3-4 km thick lowermost continental crust is significantly higher than normal (ca. 7.5 km s-1). We interpret this layer as a mixture of mafic intrusions and continental crystalline blocks, dominantly related to the Paleocene-Early Eocene rifting event. The crystalline portion of the crust within the south-western part of the COT consists of a ca. 30 km wide and ca. 6 km thick high-velocity (7.3 km s-1) body. We interpret the body as a ridge of serpentinized peridotites. The magmatic portion of the ocean crust accreted along the Knipovich Ridge from continental break-up at ca. 35 Ma until ca. 20 Ma is 3-5 km thicker than normal. We interpret the increased magmatism as a passive response to the bending of this southernmost part of the Knipovich Ridge. The thickness of the magmatic portion of the crust formed along the Mohns Ridge at ca. 20 Ma decreases to ca. 3 km, which is normal for ultra slow spreading ridges.
We study changes in effective stress (normal stress minus pore pressure) that occurred in the French Alps during the 2003-2004 Ubaye earthquake swarm. Two complementary data sets are used. First, a set of 974 relocated events allows us to finely characterize the shape of the seismogenic area and the spatial migration of seismicity during the crisis. Relocations are performed by a double-difference algorithm. We compute differences in travel times at stations both from absolute picking times and from cross-correlation delays of multiplets. The resulting catalog reveals a swarm alignment along a single planar structure striking N130 degrees E and dipping 80 degrees W. This relocated activity displays migration properties consistent with a triggering by a diffusive fluid overpressure front. This observation argues in favor of a deep-seated fluid circulation responsible for a significant part of the seismic activity in Ubaye. Second, we analyze time series of earthquake detections at a single seismological station located just above the swarm. This time series forms a dense chronicle of +16,000 events. We use it to estimate the history of effective stress changes during this sequence. For this purpose we model the rate of events by a stochastic epidemic-type aftershock sequence model with a nonstationary background seismic rate lambda(0)(t). This background rate is estimated in discrete time windows. Window lengths are determined optimally according to a new change-point method on the basis of the interevent times distribution. We propose that background events are triggered directly by a transient fluid circulation at depth. Then, using rate-and-state constitutive friction laws, we estimate changes in effective stress for the observed rate of background events. We assume that changes in effective stress occurred under constant shear stressing rate conditions. We finally obtain a maximum change in effective stress close to -8 MPa, which corresponds to a maximum fluid overpressure of about 8 MPa under constant normal stress conditions. This estimate is in good agreement with values obtained from numerical modeling of fluid flow at depth, or with direct measurements reported from fluid injection experiments.
Vertical flow filters and vertical flow constructed wetlands are established wastewater treatment systems and have also been proposed for the treatment of contaminated groundwater. This study investigates the removal processes of volatile organic compounds in a pilot-scale vertical flow filter. The filter is intermittently irrigated with contaminated groundwater containing benzene, MTBE and ammonium as the main contaminants. The system is characterized by unsaturated conditions and high contaminant removal efficiency. The aim of the present study is to evaluate the contribution of biodegradation and volatilization to the overall removal of benzene and MTBE. Tracer tests and flow rate measurements showed a highly transient flow and heterogeneous transport regime. Radon-222, naturally occurring in the treated groundwater, was used as a gas tracer and indicated a high volatilization potential. Radon-222 behavior was reproduced by numerical simulations and extrapolated for benzene and MTBE, and indicated these compounds also have a high volatilization potential. In contrast, passive sampler measurements on top of the filter detected only low benzene and MTBE concentrations. Biodegradation potential was evaluated by the analysis of catabolic genes involved in organic compound degradation and a quantitative estimation of biodegradation was derived from stable isotope fractionation analysis. Results suggest that despite the high volatilization potential, biodegradation is the predominant mass removal process in the filter system, which indicates that the volatilized fraction of the contaminants is still subject to subsequent biodegradation. In particular, the upper filter layer located between the injection tubes and the surface of the system might also contribute to biodegradation, and might play a crucial role in avoiding the emission of volatilized contaminants into the atmosphere.
In the Himalaya of Chamba, NW India, a major orographic barrier in front of the Greater Himalayan Range extracts a high proportion of the monsoonal rainfall along its southern slopes and effectively shields the orogen interior from moisture-bearing winds. Along a similar to 100-km-long orogen perpendicular transect, 28 new apatite fission track (AFT) and 30 new zircon (U-Th)/He (ZHe) cooling ages reveal marked variations in age distributions and long-term exhumation rates between the humid frontal range and the semi-arid orogen interior. On the southern topographic front, very young, elevation-invariant AFT ages of <4 Ma have been obtained that are concentrated in a similar to 30-km-wide zone; 1-D-thermal modeling suggests a Plio-Pleistocene mean erosion rate of 0.8-1.9 mm yr(-1). In contrast, AFT and ZHe ages within the orogen interior are older (4-9 and 7-18 Ma, respectively), are positively correlated with sample elevation, and yield lower mean erosion rates (0.3-0.9 mm yr(-1)). Protracted low exhumation rates within the orogen interior over the last similar to 15 Myr prevailed contemporaneously with overall humid conditions and an effective erosional regime within the southern Himalaya. This suggests that the frontal Dhauladar Range was sufficiently high during this time to form an orographic barrier, focusing climatically enhanced erosional processes and tectonic deformation there. Thrusting along the two frontal range-bounding thrust, the Main Central Thrust and the Main Boundary Thrusts, was initiated at least similar to 15 Ma ago and has remained localized since then. The lack of evidence for localized uplift farther north indicates either a rather flat decollement with no ramp or the absence of active duplex systems beneath the interior of Chamba. Exhumational variability within Chamba is best explained as the result of continuous thrusting along a major basal decollement, with a flat beneath the slowly exhuming internal compartments and a steep frontal ramp at the rapidly exhuming frontal range. The pattern in Chamba contrasts with what is observed elsewhere along the Himalaya, where exhumation is focused in a zone similar to 150 km north of the orogenic front. In the NW Himalaya, preserved High Himalayan Crystalline nappes and Lesser Himalayan windows alternate on a relatively small scale of <100 km; these alternations are closely correlated with the pattern of exhumation. Although the spatial distribution of high-exhumation zones varies considerably between individual Himalayan sectors, all of these zones are closely correlated with locally higher rock-uplift rates, sharp topographic discontinuities, and focused orographic precipitation, suggesting strong feedbacks between tectonically driven rock uplift, orographically enhanced precipitation, and erosional processes.
P>Computing the magnitude of an earthquake requires correcting for the propagation effects from the source to the receivers. This is often accomplished by performing numerical simulations using a suitable Earth model. In this work, the energy magnitude M(e) is considered and its determination is performed using theoretical spectral amplitude decay functions over teleseismic distances based on the global Earth model AK135Q. Since the high frequency part (above the corner frequency) of the source spectrum has to be considered in computing M(e), the influence of propagation and site effects may not be negligible and they could bias the single station M(e) estimations. Therefore, in this study we assess the inter- and intrastation distributions of errors by considering the M(e) residuals computed for a large data set of earthquakes recorded at teleseismic distances by seismic stations deployed worldwide. To separate the inter- and intrastation contribution of errors, we apply a maximum likelihood approach to the M(e) residuals. We show that the interstation errors (describing a sort of site effect for a station) are within +/- 0.2 magnitude units for most stations and their spatial distribution reflects the expected lateral variation affecting the velocity and attenuation of the Earth's structure in the uppermost layers, not accounted for by the 1-D AK135Q model. The variance of the intrastation error distribution (describing the record-to-record component of variability) is larger than the interstation one (0.240 against 0.159), and the spatial distribution of the errors is not random but shows specific patterns depending on the source-to-station paths. The set of coefficients empirically determined may be used in the future to account for the heterogeneities of the real Earth not considered in the theoretical calculations of the spectral amplitude decay functions used to correct the recorded data for propagation effects.
The analysis of palaeoclimate time series is usually affected by severe methodological problems, resulting primarily from non-equidistant sampling and uncertain age models. As an alternative to existing methods of time series analysis, in this paper we argue that the statistical properties of recurrence networks - a recently developed approach - are promising candidates for characterising the system's nonlinear dynamics and quantifying structural changes in its reconstructed phase space as time evolves. In a first order approximation, the results of recurrence network analysis are invariant to changes in the age model and are not directly affected by non-equidistant sampling of the data. Specifically, we investigate the behaviour of recurrence network measures for both paradigmatic model systems with non-stationary parameters and four marine records of long-term palaeoclimate variations. We show that the obtained results are qualitatively robust under changes of the relevant parameters of our method, including detrending, size of the running window used for analysis, and embedding delay. We demonstrate that recurrence network analysis is able to detect relevant regime shifts in synthetic data as well as in problematic geoscientific time series. This suggests its application as a general exploratory tool of time series analysis complementing existing methods.
The northward movement and collision of the Arabian plate with Eurasia generates compressive stresses and resulting shortening in Iran. Within the Alborz Mountains, North Iran, a complex and not well understood system of strike-slip and thrust faults accomodates a fundamental part of the NNE-SSW oriented shortening. On 28th of May 2004 the Mw 6.3 Baladeh earthquake hit the north-central Alborz Mountains. It is one of the rare and large events in this region in modern time and thus a seldom chance to study earthquake mechanisms and the local ongoing deformation processes. It also demonstrated the high vulnerability of this densily populated region.
Analyses of radiogenic neodymium (Nd), strontium (Sr), and lead (Pb) isotope compositions of clay-sized detrital sediments allow detailed tracing of source areas of sediment supply and present and past transport of particles by water masses in the eastern Indian Ocean. Isotope signatures in surface sediments range from -21.5 (epsilon Nd), 0.8299 ((87)Sr/(86S)r), and 19.89 ((206)Pb/(204)Pb) off northwest Australia to + 0.7 (epsilon Nd), 0.7069 ((87)Sr/(86)Sr), and 17.44 ((206)Pb/(204)Pb) southwest of Java. The radiogenic isotope signatures primarily reflect petrographic characteristics of the surrounding continental bedrocks but are also influenced by weathering-induced grain size effects of Pb and Sr isotope systems with superimposed features that are caused by current transport of clay-sized particles, as evidenced off Australia where a peculiar isotopic signature characterizes sediments underlying the southward flowing Leeuwin Current and the northward flowing West Australian Current (WAC). Gravity core FR10/95-GC17 off west Australia recorded a major isotopic change from Last Glacial Maximum values of -10 (epsilon Nd), 0.745 ((87S)r/(86)Sr), and 18.8 ((206)Pb/(204)Pb) to Holocene values of -22 (epsilon Nd), 0.8 ((87)Sr/(86)Sr), and 19.3 ((206)Pb/(204)Pb), which documents major climatically driven changes of the WAC and in local riverine particle supply from Australia during the past 20 kyr. In contrast, gravity core FR10/95-GC5 located below the present-day pathway of the Indonesian throughflow (ITF) shows a much smaller isotopic variability, indicating a relatively stable ITF hydrography over most of the past 92 kyr. Only the surface sediments differ significantly in their isotopic composition, indicating substantial changes in erosional sources attributed to a change of the current regime during the past 5 kyr.
Love wave contribution to the ambient vibration H/V amplitude peak observed with array measurements
(2011)
This study applies array methods to measure the relative proportions of Love and Rayleigh waves in the ambient vibration wavefield. Information on these properties is of special relevance for frequencies around the horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) spectral amplitude ratio peak. The analysis of H/V curves, a popular technique in site characterisation, commonly assumes that the curves represent the frequency-dependent Rayleigh wave ellipticity. For the detailed interpretation of amplitudes or the inversion of the curves, it is therefore necessary to estimate and correct for the contribution of other wave types to the ambient vibration wavefield. I use available ambient vibration array measurements to determine the relative amount of Love and Rayleigh waves on the horizontal components by frequency-dependent analysis of the main propagation and polarisation directions, with a special emphasis on the H/V peak frequency as determined from the same recordings. Tests with synthetic data demonstrate the feasibility of this approach, at least in the presence of dominant source regions. Analysis of the data from 12 measurements at nine European sites, which include shallow as well as deep locations that span a wide range of impedance contrasts at the sediment-bedrock interface, indicates that the relative contribution of Rayleigh waves varies widely with frequency, from close to 0% to more than 70%. While most data sets show relative Rayleigh wave contributions between 40% and 50% around the H/V peak, there are also examples where Love waves clearly dominate the wavefield at the H/V peak, even for a site with a low impedance contrast. Longer-term measurements at one site indicate temporal variations in the relative Rayleigh wave content between day- and nighttime. Results calculated with the method introduced herein generally compare well with results of modified spatial autocorrelation analysis. These two methods might be used in a complimentary fashion, as both rely on different properties of the ambient vibration wavefield. This study illustrates that it is possible to measure the relative Rayleigh wave content of the noise wavefield from array data. Furthermore, the examples presented herein indicate it is important to estimate this property, as the assumption that there are an equal proportion of Love and Rayleigh waves is not always correct.
Complex layered deformation within the Aegean crust and mantle revealed by seismic anisotropy
(2011)
Continental lithosphere can undergo pervasive internal deformation, often distributed over broad zones near plate boundaries. However, because of the paucity of observational constraints on three-dimensional movement at depth, patterns of flow within the lithosphere remain uncertain. Endmember models for lithospheric flow invoke deformation localized on faults or deep shear zones or, alternatively, diffuse, viscous-fluid-like flow. Here we determine seismic Rayleigh-wave anisotropy in the crust and mantle of the Aegean region, an archetypal example of continental deformation. Our data reveal a complex, depth-dependent flow pattern within the extending lithosphere. Beneath the northern Aegean Sea, fast shear wave propagation is in a North-South direction within the mantle lithosphere, parallel to the extensional component of the current strain rate field. In the south-central Aegean, where deformation is weak at present, anisotropic fabric in the lower crust runs parallel to the direction of palaeo-extension in the Miocene. The close match of orientations of regional-scale anisotropic fabric and the directions of extension during the last significant episodes of deformation implies that at least a large part of the extension in the Aegean has been taken up by distributed viscous flow in the lower crust and lithospheric mantle.
The need to increase food production for a growing world population makes an assessment of global agricultural water productivities and virtual water flows important. Using the hydrology and agro-biosphere model LPJmL, we quantify at 0.5 degrees resolution the amount of blue and green water (irrigation and precipitation water) needed to produce one unit of crop yield, for 11 of the world's major crop types. Based on these, we also quantify the agricultural water footprints (WFP) of all countries, for the period 1998-2002, distinguishing internal and external WFP (virtual water imported from other countries) and their blue and green components, respectively. Moreover, we calculate water savings and losses, and for the first time also land savings and losses, through international trade with these products. The consistent separation of blue and green water flows and footprints shows that green water globally dominates both the internal and external WFP (84% of the global WFP and 94% of the external WFP rely on green water). While no country ranks among the top ten with respect to all water footprints calculated here, Pakistan and Iran demonstrate high absolute and per capita blue WFP, and the US and India demonstrate high absolute green and blue WFPs. The external WFPs are relatively small (6% of the total global blue WFP, 16% of the total global green WFP). Nevertheless, current trade of the products considered here saves significant water volumes and land areas (similar to 263 km(3) and similar to 41 Mha, respectively, equivalent to 5% of the sowing area of the considered crops and 3.5% of the annual precipitation on this area). Relating the proportions of external to internal blue/green WFP to the per capita WFPs allows recognizing that only a few countries consume more water from abroad than from their own territory and have at the same time above-average WFPs. Thus, countries with high per capita water consumption affect mainly the water availability in their own country. Finally, this study finds that flows/savings of both virtual water and virtual land need to be analysed together, since they are intrinsically related.
The public promotion of renewable energies is expected to increase the number of biogas plants and stimulate energy crops cultivation (e. g. maize) in Germany. In order to assess the indirect effects of the resulting land-use changes on biodiversity, we developed six land-use scenarios and simulated the responses of six farmland wildlife species with the spatially explicit agent-based model system ALMaSS. The scenarios differed in composition and spatial configuration of arable crops. We implemented scenarios where maize for energy production replaced 15% and 30% of the area covered by other cash crops. Biogas maize farms were either randomly distributed or located within small or large aggregation clusters. The animal species investigated were skylark (Alauda arvensis), grey partridge (Perdix perdix), European brown hare (Lepus europaeus), field vole (Microtus agrestis), a linyphiid spider (Erigone atra) and a carabid beetle (Bembidion lampros). The changes in crop composition had a negative effect on the population sizes of skylark, partridge and hare and a positive effect on the population sizes of spider and beetle and no effect on the population size of vole. An aggregated cultivation of maize amplified these effects for skylark. Species responses to changes in the crop composition were consistent across three differently structured landscapes. Our work suggests that with the compliance to some recommendations, negative effects of biogas-related land-use change on the populations of the six representative farmland species can largely be avoided.
Ether functionalities form an important cross-linking structure within the macromolecular organic matrix of lignites and coals. To obtain a deeper insight into the complex internal structure of such macromolecules and the maturation related changes of the ether compounds within the network structure, boron tribromide (BBr3) ether cleavage was applied to a series of lignite and coal samples of different maturity (R-0 0.27-0.80%) obtained from coal mines and natural outcrops from the North and South Island of New Zealand. Terminal ether-bound alcohols rapidly decrease during diagenesis and occur only in low amounts during the catagenetic stage. Comparison between ester- and ether-bound terminal alcohols indicates a parallel decreasing trend during the diagenetic stage, suggesting that the stability differences between both linkages are not large enough to be observed in maturation processes over geological time scales:Polyether compounds were detected with chain length up to five carbon atoms. After a small decrease during the diagenetic phase these compounds occur in relatively high concentrations, even in the main catagenetic stage. This suggests that these linkage structures represent important cross-linking substructures within the macromolecular matrix of lignites and coals being sterically protected within the macromolecular network during the maturation process. Additional cross-linking substructures were (poly)ether aromatics, esters and ketones.
Soil moisture is a key state variable that controls runoff formation, infiltration and partitioning of radiation into latent and sensible heat. However, the experimental characterisation of near surface soil moisture patterns and their controls on runoff formation remains a challenge. This subject was one aspect of the BMBF-funded OPAQUE project (operational discharge and flooding predictions in head catchments). As part of that project the focus of this dissertation is on: (1) testing the methodology and feasibility of the Spatial TDR technology in producing soil moisture profiles along TDR probes, including an inversion technique of the recorded signal in heterogeneous field soils, (2) the analysis of spatial variability and temporal dynamics of soil moisture at the field scale including field experiments and hydrological modelling, (3) the application of models of different complexity for understanding soil moisture dynamics and its importance for runoff generation as well as for improving the prediction of runoff volumes. To fulfil objective 1, several laboratory experiments were conducted to understand the influence of probe rod geometry and heterogeneities in the sampling volume under different wetness conditions. This includes a detailed analysis on how these error sources affect retrieval of soil moisture profiles in soils. Concerning objective 2 a sampling strategy of two TDR clusters installed in the head water of the Wilde Weißeritz catchment (Eastern Ore Mountains, Germany) was used to investigate how well “the catchment state” can be characterised by means of distributed soil moisture data observed at the field scale. A grassland site and a forested site both located on gentle slopes were instrumented with two Spatial TDR clusters that consist of up to 39 TDR probes. Process understanding was gained by modelling the interaction of evapotranspiration and soil moisture with the hydrological process model CATFLOW. A field scale irrigation experiment was carried out to investigate near subsurface processes at the hillslope scale. The interactions of soil moisture and runoff formation were analysed using discharge data from three nested catchments: the Becherbach with a size of 2 km², the Rehefeld catchment (17 km²) and the superordinate Ammelsdorf catchment (49 km²). Statistical analyses including observations of pre-event runoff, soil moisture and different rainfall characteristics were employed to predict stream flow volume. On the different scales a strong correlation between the average soil moisture and the runoff coefficients of rainfall-runoff events could be found, which almost explains equivalent variability as the pre-event runoff. Furthermore, there was a strong correlation between surface soil moisture and subsurface wetness with a hysteretic behaviour between runoff soil moisture. To fulfil objective 3 these findings were used in a generalised linear model (GLM) analysis which combines state variables describing the catchments antecedent wetness and variables describing the meteorological forcing in order to predict event runoff coefficients. GLM results were compared to simulations with the catchment model WaSiM ETH. Hereby were the model results of the GLMs always better than the simulations with WaSiM ETH. The GLM analysis indicated that the proposed sampling strategy of clustering TDR probes in typical functional units is a promising technique to explore soil moisture controls on runoff generation and can be an important link between the scales. Long term monitoring of such sites could yield valuable information for flood warning and forecasting by identifying critical soil moisture conditions for the former and providing a better representation of the initial moisture conditions for the latter.
We describe the petrographic characteristics, whole-rock geochemistry and mineral chemistry of rocks from the Pucarilla-Cerro Tipillas Volcanic Complex with emphasis on the rocks belonging to the middle Miocene Luingo caldera, located in the south-eastern portion of the Central Volcanic Zone (CVZ) of the Andes. We modelled the petrogenesis of the Luingo caldera rocks as a mixture of ca. 20% crustal magmas and 80% of mantle magmas by AFC with recharge processes. A comparison of Luingo geochemical data with the composition of Miocene-Pliocene volcanic rocks from the broad area, points to major thickening events during the middle Miocene for the western portion and during the upper Miocene for the eastern portion of the Southern CVZ. In the eastern sector (similar to 66 degrees W) the mantle source appears to change from a spinel-lherzolite type for the middle Miocene to a garnet-lherzolite type for the upper Miocene-Pliocene magmas. The areal distribution of the volcanic products led to the recognition of approximately equivalent areas covered by volcanic rocks both in the eastern and in the western Puna borders. This indicates a broad arc, which was structurally controlled at the proto-Puna/Puna margins, whose geochemical differences are related with variations in crustal thicknesses and heterogeneous mantle sources from west to east.
Severely negative Delta(14)C anomalies from the mid-depth Pacific and the Arabian Sea have been taken as support for the hypothesized deglacial release of a previously isolated, extremely (14)C-deplete deep ocean carbon reservoir. We report box model simulations that cast doubt on both the existence of the hypothesized deep reservoir and its ability to explain the mid-depth Delta(14)C anomalies. First, the degree of ice age isolation needed to substantially reduce the deep Delta(14)C of the deep reservoir causes anoxia and the trapping of alkalinity from CaCO(3) dissolution, the latter increasing atmospheric CO(2). Second, even with a completely (14)C-free deep reservoir, achieving the mid-depth Delta(14)C anomalies of observed duration requires ad hoc stifling of aspects of deep circulation to prevent rapid dissipation of the anomalous (14)C-free carbon to the rest of the ocean and the atmosphere. We suggest that the mid-depth anomalies do not record basin-scale Delta(14)C changes but are instead local phenomena.
The northwest Argentine Andes constitute a premier natural laboratory to assess the complex interactions between isolated uplifts, orographic precipitation gradients, and related erosion and sedimentation patterns. Here we present new stratigraphic observations and age information from intermontane basin sediments to elucidate the Neogene to Quaternary shortening history and associated sediment dynamics of the broken Salta foreland. This part of the Andean orogen, which comprises an array of basement-cored range uplifts, is located at similar to 25 degrees S and lies to the east of the arid intraorogenic Altiplano/Puna plateau. In the Salta foreland, spatially and temporally disparate range uplift along steeply dipping inherited faults has resulted in foreland compartmentalization with steep basin-tobasin precipitation gradients. Sediment architecture and facies associations record a three-phase (similar to 10, similar to 5, and <2 Ma), east directed, yet unsystematic evolution of shortening, foreland fragmentation, and ensuing changes in precipitation and sediment transport. The provenance signatures of these deposits reflect the trapping of sediments in the intermontane basins of the Andean hinterland, as well as the evolution of a severed fluvial network. Present-day moisture supply to the hinterland is determined by range relief and basin elevation. The conspiring effects of range uplift and low rainfall help the entrapment and long-term storage of sediments, ultimately raising basin elevation in the hinterland, which may amplify aridification in the orogen interior.
Earthquake faults interact with each other in many different ways and hence earthquakes cannot be treated as individual independent events. Although earthquake interactions generally lead to a complex evolution of the crustal stress field, it does not necessarily mean that the earthquake occurrence becomes random and completely unpredictable. In particular, the interplay between earthquakes can rather explain the occurrence of pronounced characteristics such as periods of accelerated and depressed seismicity (seismic quiescence) as well as spatiotemporal earthquake clustering (swarms and aftershock sequences). Ignoring the time-dependence of the process by looking at time-averaged values – as largely done in standard procedures of seismic hazard assessment – can thus lead to erroneous estimations not only of the activity level of future earthquakes but also of their spatial distribution. Therefore, it exists an urgent need for applicable time-dependent models. In my work, I aimed at better understanding and characterization of the earthquake interactions in order to improve seismic hazard estimations. For this purpose, I studied seismicity patterns on spatial scales ranging from hydraulic fracture experiments (meter to kilometer) to fault system size (hundreds of kilometers), while the temporal scale of interest varied from the immediate aftershock activity (minutes to months) to seismic cycles (tens to thousands of years). My studies revealed a number of new characteristics of fluid-induced and stress-triggered earthquake clustering as well as precursory phenomena in earthquake cycles. Data analysis of earthquake and deformation data were accompanied by statistical and physics-based model simulations which allow a better understanding of the role of structural heterogeneities, stress changes, afterslip and fluid flow. Finally, new strategies and methods have been developed and tested which help to improve seismic hazard estimations by taking the time-dependence of the earthquake process appropriately into account.
The Takab complex is composed of a variety of metamorphic rocks including amphibolites, metapelites, mafic granulites, migmatites and meta-ultramafics, which are intruded by the granitoid. The granitoid magmatic activity occurred in relation to the subduction of the Neo-Tethys oceanic crust beneath the Iranian crust during Tertiary times. The granitoids are mainly granodiorite, quartz monzodiorite, monzonite and quartz diorite. Chemically, the magmatic rocks are characterized by ASI < 1.04, AI < 0.87 and high contents of CaO (up to similar to 14.5 wt %), which are consistent with the I-type magmatic series. Low FeO(t)/(FeO(t)+MgO) values (< 0.75) as well as low Nb, Y and K(2)O contents of the investigated rocks resemble the calc-alkaline series. Low SiO(2), K(2)O/Na(2)O and Al(2)O(3) accompanied by high CaO and FeO contents indicate melting of metabasites as an appropriate source for the intrusions. Negative Ti and Nb anomalies verify a metaluminous crustal origin for the protoliths of the investigated igneous rocks. These are comparable with compositions of the associated mafic migmatites, in the Takab metamorphic complex, which originated from the partial melting of amphibolites. Therefore, crustal melting and a collision-related origin for the Takab calc-alkaline intrusions are proposed here on the basis of mineralogy and geochemical characteristics. The P-T evolution during magmatic crystallization and subsolidus cooling stages is determined by the study of mineral chemistry of the granodiorite and the quartz diorite. Magmatic crystallization pressure and temperature for the quartz-diorite and the granodiorite are estimated to be P similar to 7.8 +/- 2.5 kbar, T similar to 760 +/- 75 degrees C and P similar to 5 +/- 1 kbar, T similar to 700 degrees C, respectively. Subsolidus conditions are consistent with temperatures of similar to 620 degrees C and similar to 600 degrees C, and pressures of similar to 5 kbar and similar to 3.5 kbar for the quartz-diorite and the granodiorite, respectively.
Magnitude estimation for microseismicity induced during the KTB 2004/2005 injection experiment
(2011)
We determined the magnitudes of 2540 microseismic events measured at one single 3C borehole geophone at the German Deep Drilling Site (known by the German acronym, KTB) during the injection phase 2004/2005. For this task we developed a three-step approach. First, we estimated local magnitudes of 104 larger events with a standard method based on amplitude measurements at near-surface stations. Second, we investigated a series of parameters to characterize the size of these events using the seismograms of the borehole sensor, and we compared them statistically with the local magnitudes. Third, we extrapolated the regression curve to obtain the magnitudes of 2436 events that were only measured at the borehole geophone. This method improved the magnitude of completeness for the KTB data set by more than one order down to M = -2.75. The resulting b-value for all events was 0.78, which is similar to the b-value obtained from taking only the greater events with standard local magnitude estimation from near-surface stations, b = 0.86. The more complete magnitude catalog was required to study the magnitude distribution with time and to characterize the seismotectonic state of the KTB injection site. The event distribution with time was consistent with prediction from theory assuming pore pressure diffusion as the underlying mechanism to trigger the events. The value we obtained for the seismogenic index of -4 suggested that the seismic hazard potential at the KTB site is comparatively low.
Large-scale soy agriculture in the southern Brazilian Amazon now rivals deforestation for pasture as the region's predominant form of land use change. Such landscape-level change can have substantial consequences for local and regional hydrology, but these effects remain relatively unstudied in this ecologically and economically important region. We examined how the conversion to soy agriculture influences water balances and stormflows using stream discharge (water yields) and the timing of discharge (stream hydrographs) in small (2.5-13.5 km2) forested and soy headwater watersheds in the Upper Xingu Watershed in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil. We monitored water yield for 1 year in three forested and four soy watersheds. Mean daily water yields were approximately four times higher in soy than forested watersheds, and soy watersheds showed greater seasonal variability in discharge. The contribution of stormflows to annual streamflow in all streams was low (< 13% of annual streamflow), and the contribution of stormflow to streamflow did not differ between land uses. If the increases in water yield observed in this study are typical, landscape-scale conversion to soy substantially alters water-balance, potentially altering the regional hydrology over large areas of the southern Amazon.
Landscapes in the humid tropics are undergoing a continuous change in land use. Deforestation is still taking its toll on forested areas, but at the same time more and more secondary forests emerge where formerly agricultural lands and pastures are being abandoned. Regarding soil hydrology, the extent to which secondary succession can recover soil hydrological properties disturbed by antecedent deforestation and pasture use is yet poorly understood. We investigated the effect of secondary succession on saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) at two soil depths (0-6 and 6-12 cm) using a space-for-time approach in a landscape mosaic in central Panama. The following four land-use classes were studied: pasture (P), secondary forest of 5-8 years of age (SF5), secondary forest of 12-15 years of age (SF12) and secondary forest of more than 100 years of age (SF100), each replicated altogether four times in different micro-catchments across the study region. The hydrological implications of differences in Ks in response to land-use change with land use, especially regarding overland flow generation, were assessed via comparisons with rainfall intensities.
Recovery of Ks could be detected in the 0-6 cm depth after 12 years of secondary succession: P and SF5 held similar Ks values, but differed significantly (alpha = 0.05) from SF12 and SF100 which in turn were indistinguishable. Variability within the land cover classes was large but, due to sufficient replication in the study, Ks recovery could be detected nonetheless. Ks in the 6-12 cm depth did not show any differences between the land cover classes; only Ks of the uppermost soil layer was affected by land-use changes. Overland flow - as inferred from comparisons of Ks with rainfall intensities - is more likely on P and SF5 sites compared to SF12 and 5E100 for the upper sample depth; however, generally low values at the 6-12 cm depth are likely to impede vertical percolation during high rainfall intensities regardless of land use.
We conclude that Ks can recover from pasture use under secondary succession up to pre-pasture levels, but the process may take more than 8 years. In order to gain comprehensive understanding of Ks change with land use and its hydrological implications, more studies with detailed land-use histories and combined measurements of Ks, overland flow, precipitation and throughfall are essential.
Hydrologic modelers often need to know which method of quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) is best suited for a particular catchment. Traditionally, QPE methods are verified and benchmarked against independent rain gauge observations. However, the lack of spatial representativeness limits the value of such a procedure. Alternatively, one could drive a hydrological model with different QPE products and choose the one which best reproduces observed runoff. Unfortunately, the calibration of conceptual model parameters might conceal actual differences between the QPEs. To avoid such effects, we abandoned the idea of determining optimum parameter sets for all QPE being compared. Instead, we carry out a large number of runoff simulations, confronting each QPE with a common set of random parameters. By evaluating the goodness-of-fit of all simulations, we obtain information on whether the quality of competing QPE methods is significantly different. This knowledge is inferred exactly at the scale of interest-the catchment scale. We use synthetic data to investigate the ability of this procedure to distinguish a truly superior QPE from an inferior one. We find that the procedure is prone to failure in the case of linear systems. However, we show evidence that in realistic (nonlinear) settings, the method can provide useful results even in the presence of moderate errors in model structure and streamflow observations. In a real-world case study on a small mountainous catchment, we demonstrate the ability of the verification procedure to reveal additional insights as compared to a conventional cross validation approach.
Numerous pollen records across the upper Tibetan Plateau indicate that in the early part of the mid-Holocene, Kobresia-rich high-alpine meadows invaded areas formerly dominated by alpine steppe vegetation rich in Artemisia. We examine climate, land-use, and CO2 concentration changes as potential drivers for this marked vegetation change. The climatic implications of these vegetational shifts are explored by applying a newly developed pollen-based moisture-balance transfer-function to fossil pollen spectra from Koucha Lake on the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau (34.0 degrees N; 97.2 degrees E; 4540 m a.s.l.) and Xuguo Lake on the central Tibetan Plateau (31.97 degrees N; 90.3 degrees E; 4595 m a.s.l.), both located in the meadow-steppe transition zone. Reconstructed moisture-balances were markedly reduced (by similar to 150-180 mm) during the early mid-Holocene compared to the late-Holocene. These findings contradict most other records from the Indian monsoonal realm and also most non-pollen records from the Tibetan Plateau that indicate a rather wet early- and mid-Holocene. The extent and timing of anthropogenic land-use involving grazing by large herbivores on the upper Tibetan Plateau and its possible impacts on high-alpine vegetation are still mostly unknown due to the lack of relevant archaeological evidence. Arguments against a mainly anthropogenic origin of Kobresia high-alpine meadows are the discovery of the widespread expansion of obviously 'natural' Kobresia meadows on the south-eastern Tibetan Plateau during the Lateglacial period indicating the natural origin of this vegetation type and the lack of any concurrence between modern human-driven vegetation shifts and the mid-Holocene compositional changes. Vegetation types are known to respond to atmospheric CO2 concentration changes, at least on glacial-interglacial scales. This assumption is confirmed by our sensitivity study where we model Tibetan vegetation at different CO2 concentrations of 375 (present-day), 260 (early Holocene), and 650 ppm (future scenario) using the BIOME4 global vegetation model. Previous experimental studies confirm that vegetation growing on dry and high sites is particularly sensitive to CO2 changes. Here we propose that the replacement of drought-resistant alpine steppes (that are well adapted to low CO2 concentrations) by mesic Kobresia meadows can, at least, be partly interpreted as a response to the increase of CO2 concentration since 7000 years ago due to fertilization and water-saving effects. Our hypothesis is corroborated by former CO2 fertilization experiments performed on various dry grasslands and by the strong recent expansion of high-alpine meadows documented by remote sensing studies in response to recent CO2 increases.
Synorogenic extension has been recognized as an integral structural constituent of mountain belts and high-elevation plateaus during their evolution. In the Himalaya, both orogen-parallel and orogen-normal extension has been recognized. However, the underlying driving forces for extension and their timing are still a matter of debate. Here we present new fault kinematic data based on systematic measurements of hundreds of outcrop-scale brittle fault planes in the NW Indian Himalaya. This new data set, as well as field observations including crosscutting relationships, mineral fibers on fault planes, and correlations with deformation structures in lake sediments, allows us to distinguish different deformation styles. The overall strain pattern derived from our data reflects the large regional contractional deformation pattern very well but also reveals significant extensional deformation in a region, which is dominated by shortening. In total, we were able to identify six deformation styles, most of which are temporally and spatially linked, representing protracted shortening. Our observations also furnish the basis for a detailed overview of the younger deformation history in the NW Himalaya, which has been characterized by extension overprinting previously generated structures related to shortening. The four dominant deformation styles are (1) shortening parallel to the regional convergence direction; (2) arc-normal extension; (3) arc-parallel extension; and finally, (4) E-W extension. This is the first data set where a succession of both arc-normal and E-W extension has been documented in the Himalaya. Importantly, our observations help differentiate E-W extension triggered by processes within the Tibetan Plateau from arc-parallel and arc-normal extension originating from the curvature of the Himalayan orogen.
Species distribution models are an important tool to predict the impact of global change on species distributional ranges and community assemblages. Although considerable progress has been made in the statistical modeling during the last decade, many approaches still ignore important features of species distributions, such as nonlinearity and interactions between predictors, spatial autocorrelation, and nonstationarity, or at most incorporate only some of these features. Ecologists, however, require a modeling framework that simultaneously addresses all these features flexibly and consistently. Here we describe such an approach that allows the estimation of the global effects of environmental variables in addition to local components dealing with spatiotemporal autocorrelation as well as nonstationary effects. The local components can be used to infer unknown spatiotemporal processes; the global component describes how the species is influenced by the environment and can be used for predictions, allowing the fitting of many well-known regression relationships, ranging from simple linear models to complex decision trees or from additive models to models inspired by machine learning procedures. The reliability of spatiotemporal predictions can be qualitatively predicted by separately evaluating the importance of local and global effects. We demonstrate the potential of the new approach by modeling the breeding distribution of the Red Kite (Milvus milvus), a bird of prey occurring predominantly in Western Europe, based on presence/absence data from two mapping campaigns using grids of 40 km 2 in Bavaria. The global component of the model selected seven environmental variables extracted from the CORINE and WorldClim databases to predict Red Kite breeding. The effect of altitude was found to be nonstationary in space, and in addition, the data were spatially autocorrelated, which suggests that a species distribution model that does not allow for spatially varying effects and spatial autocorrelation would have ignored important processes determining the distribution of Red Kite breeding across Bavaria. Thus, predictions from standard species distribution models that do not allow for real-world complexities may be considerably erroneous. Our analysis of Red Kite breeding exemplifies the potential of the innovative approach for species distribution models. The method is also applicable to modeling count data.
While several empirical and theoretical studies have clearly shown the negative effects of climate or landscape changes on population and species survival only few of them addressed combined and correlated consequences of these key environmental drivers. This also includes positive landscape changes such as active habitat management and restoration to buffer the negative effects of deteriorating climatic conditions. In this study, we apply a conceptual spatial modelling approach based on functional types to explore the effects of both positive and negative correlations between changes in habitat and climate conditions on the survival of spatially structured populations. We test the effect of different climate and landscape change scenarios on four different functional types that represent a broad spectrum of species characterised by their landscape level carrying capacity, the local population turnover rates at the patch level (K-strategies vs. r-strategies) and dispersal characterstics. As expected, simulation results show that correlated landscape and climatic changes can accelerate (in case of habitat loss or degradation) or slow down (in case of habitat gain or improvement) regional species extinction. However, the strength of the combined changes depends on local turnover at the patch level, the overall landscape capacity of the species, and its specific dispersal characteristics. Under all scenarios of correlated changes in habitat and climate conditions we found the highest sensitivity for functional types representing species with a low landscape capacity but a high population growth rate and a strong density regulation causing a high turnover at the local patch level.
The relative importance of habitat loss or habitat degradation, in combination with climate deterioration, differed among the functional types. However, an increase in regional capacity revealed a similar response pattern: For all types, habitat improvement led to higher survival times than habitat gain, i.e. the establishment of new habitat patches. This suggests that improving local habitat quality at a regional scale is a more promising conservation strategy under climate change than implementing new habitat patches. This conceptual modelling study provides a general framework to better understand and support the management of populations prone to complex environmental changes.
Motivation | Societal and economic needs of East Africa rely entirely on the availability of water, which is governed by the regular onset and retreat of the rainy seasons. Fluctuations in the amounts of rainfall has tremendous impact causing widespread famine, disease outbreaks and human migrations. Efforts towards high resolution forecasting of seasonal precipitation and hydrological systems are therefore needed, which requires high frequency short to long-term analyses of available climate data that I am going to present in this doctoral thesis by three different studies. 15,000 years - Suguta Valley | The main study of this thesis concentrated on the understanding of humidity changes within the last African Humid Period (AHP, 14.8-5.5 ka BP). The nature and causes of intensity variations of the West-African (WAM) and Indian Summer monsoons (ISM) during the AHP, especially their exact influence on regional climate relative to each other, is currently intensely debated. Here, I present a high-resolution multiproxy lake-level record spanning the AHP from the remote Suguta Valley in the northern Kenya Rift, located between the WAM and ISM domains. The presently desiccated valley was during the AHP filled by a 300 m deep and 2200 km2 large palaeo-lake due to an increase in precipitation of only 26%. The record explains the synchronous onset of large lakes in the East African Rift System (EARS) with the longitudinal shift of the Congo Air Boundary (CAB) over the East African and Ethiopian Plateaus, as the direct consequence of an enhanced atmospheric pressure gradient between East-Africa and India due to a precessional-forced northern hemisphere insolation maximum. Pronounced, and abrupt lake level fluctuations during the generally wet AHP are explained by small-scale solar irradiation changes weakening this pressure gradient atmospheric moisture availability preventing the CAB from reaching the study area. Instead, the termination of the AHP occurred, in a non-linear manner due to a change towards an equatorial insolation maximum ca. 6.5 ka ago extending the AHP over Ethiopia and West-Africa. 200 years - Lake Naivasha | The second part of the thesis focused on the analysis of a 200 year-old sediment core from Lake Naivasha in the Central Kenya Rift, one of the very few present freshwater lakes in East Africa. The results revealed and confirmed, that the appliance of proxy records for palaeo-climate reconstruction for the last 100 years within a time of increasing industrialisation and therefore human impact to the proxy-record containing sites are broadly limited. Since the middle of the 20th century, intense anthropogenic activity around Lake Naivasha has led to cultural eutrophication, which has overprinted the influence of natural climate variation to the lake usually inferred from proxy records such as diatoms, transfer-functions, geochemical and sedimentological analysis as used in this study. The results clarify the need for proxy records from remote unsettled areas to contribute with pristine data sets to current debates about anthropologic induced global warming since the past 100 years. 14 years - East African Rift | In order to avoid human influenced data sets and validate spatial and temporal heterogeneities of proxy-records from East Africa, the third part of the thesis therefore concentrated on the most recent past 14 years (1996-2010) detecting climate variability by using remotely sensed rainfall data. The advancement in the spatial coverage and temporal resolutions of rainfall data allow a better understanding of influencing climate mechanisms and help to better interpret proxy-records from the EARS in order to reconstruct past climate conditions. The study focuses on the dynamics of intraseasonal rainfall distribution within catchments of eleven lake basins in the EARS that are often used for palaeo-climate studies. We discovered that rainfall in adjacent basins exhibits high complexities in the magnitudes of intraseasonal variability, biennial to triennial precipitation patterns and even are not necessarily correlated often showing opposite trends. The variability among the watersheds is driven by the complex interaction of topography, in particular the shape, length and elevation of the catchment and its relative location to the East African Rift System and predominant influence of the ITCZ or CAB, whose locations and intensities are dependent on the strength of low pressure cells over India, SST variations in the Atlantic, Pacific or Indian Ocean, QBO phases and the 11-year solar cycle. Among all seasons we observed, January-September is the season of highest and most complex rainfall variability, especially for the East African Plateau basins, most likely due to the irregular penetration and sensitivity of the CAB.
The stable hydrogen isotope ratios (delta D) of leaf wax n-alkanes record valuable information on plant and ecosystem water relations. It remains, however, unknown if leaf wax n-alkane delta D values record only environmental variation during the brief period of time of leaf growth or if leaf wax n-alkane delta D values are affected by environmental variability throughout the entire lifespan of a leaf. To resolve these uncertainties, we irrigated Populus trichocarpa trees with a pulse of deuterium-enriched water and used compound-specific stable hydrogen isotope analyses to test if the applied tracer could be recovered from leaf wax n-alkanes of leaves that were at different stages of their development during the tracer application. Our experiment revealed that only leaf wax n-alkanes from leaves that had developed during the time of the tracer application were affected, while leaves that were already fully matured at the time of the tracer application were not. We conclude from our study that under controlled environmental conditions, leaf wax n-alkanes are synthesized only early in the ontogeny of a leaf. Our experiment has implications for the interpretation of leaf wax n-alkane delta D values in an environmental context, as it suggests that these compounds record only a brief period of the environmental variability that a leaf experiences throughout its life.
To investigate and quantify main physical heat driving processes affecting the present-day subsurface thermal field, we study a complex geological setting, the Northeast German Basin (NEGB). The internal geological structure of the NEGB is characterized by the presence of a relatively thick layer of Permian Zechstein salt (up to 5000 m), which forms many salt diapirs and pillows locally reaching nearly the surface. By means of three-dimensional numerical simulations we explore the role of heat conduction, pressure, and density driven groundwater flow as well as fluid viscosity related effects. Our results suggest that the regional temperature distribution within the basin results from interactions between regional pressure forces as driven by topographic gradients and thermal diffusion locally enhanced by thermal conductivity contrasts between the different sedimentary rocks with the highly conductive salt playing a prominent role. In contrast, buoyancy forces triggered by temperature-dependent fluid density variations are demonstrated to affect only locally the internal thermal configuration. Locations, geometry, and wavelengths of convective thermal anomalies are mainly controlled by the permeability field and thickness values of the respective geological layers.
Quantification of total cell abundance is one of the most fundamental parameters in the exploration of subsurface life. Despite all recent advances in molecular techniques, this parameter is usually determined by fluorescence microscopy. In order to obtain reliable and reproducible results, it is important not just to focus on the actual cell enumeration but also to consider the entire chain of processing. Starting with the retrieval of the sample, over subsampling and sample processing to the final step of fluorescence microscopy, there are many potential sources of contamination that have to be assessed and, if possible, avoided. Because some degree of sample contamination will always occur, it is necessary to employ some form of contamination control. Different tracers are available, each one with its specific advantages and drawbacks. In many cases, the problems arise not after the sample has arrived in a well-equipped laboratory with highly trained personnel, but much earlier at the drill site or in a field camp. In this review, I discuss the different aspects of cell enumeration in subsurface sediment, evaluating every step in the long process chain.
In this receiver function study, we investigate the structure of the crust beneath six seismic broadband stations close to the Sunda Arc formed by subduction of the Indo-Australian under the Sunda plate. We apply three different methods to analyse receiver functions at single stations. A recently developed algorithm determines absolute shear-wave velocities from observed frequency-dependent apparent incidence angles of P waves. Using waveform inversion of receiver functions and a modified Zhu and Kanamori algorithm, properties of discontinuities such as depth, velocity contrast, and sharpness are determined. The combination of the methods leads to robust results. The approach is validated by synthetic tests. Stations located on Malaysia show high-shear-wave velocities (V (S)) near the surface in the range of 3.4-3.6 km s (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) attributed to crystalline rocks and 3.6-4.0 km s (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) in the lower crust. Upper and lower crust are clearly separated, the Moho is found at normal depths of 30-34 km where it forms a sharp discontinuity at station KUM or a gradient at stations IPM and KOM. For stations close to the subduction zone (BSI, GSI and PSI) complexity within the crust is high. Near the surface low V (S) of 2.6-2.9 km s (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) indicate sediment layers. High V (S) of 4.2 km s (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) are found at depth greater than 6 and 2 km at BSI and PSI, respectively. There, the Moho is located at 37 and 40 km depth. At station GSI, situated closest to the trench, the subducting slab is imaged as a north-east dipping structure separated from the sediment layer by a 10 km wide gradient in V (S) between 10 and 20 km depth. Within the subducting slab V (S) a parts per thousand aEuro parts per thousand 4.7 km s (-aEuro parts per thousand 1). At station BSI, the subducting slab is found at depth between 90 and 110 km dipping 20A degrees +/- 8A degrees in approximately N 60A degrees E. A velocity increase in similar depth is indicated at station PSI, however no evidence for a dipping layer is found.
The Western Alpine Sesia-Lanzo Zone (SLZ) is a sliver of eclogite-facies continental crust exhumed from mantle depths in the hanging wall of a subducted oceanic slab. Eclogite-facies felsic and basic rocks sampled across the internal SLZ show different degrees of retrograde metamorphic overprint associated with fluid influx. The weakly deformed samples preserve relict eclogite-facies mineral assemblages that show partial fluid-induced compositional re-equilibration along grain boundaries, brittle fractures and other fluid pathways. Multiple fluid influx stages are indicated by replacement of primary omphacite by phengite, albitic plagioclase and epidote as well as partial re-equilibration and/or overgrowths in phengite and sodic amphibole, producing characteristic step-like compositional zoning patterns. The observed textures, together with the map-scale distribution of the samples, suggest open-system, pervasive and reactive fluid flux across large rock volumes above the subducted slab. Thermodynamic modelling indicates a minimum amount of fluid of 0 center dot 1-0 center dot 5 wt % interacting with the wall-rocks. Phase relations and reaction textures indicate mobility of K, Ca, Fe and Mg, whereas Al is relatively immobile in these medium-temperature-high-pressure fluids. Furthermore, the thermodynamic models show that recycling of previously fractionated material, such as in the cores of garnet porphyroblasts, largely controls the compositional re-equilibration of the exhumed rock body.
The amount and composition of subduction zone fluids and the effect of fluid-rock interaction at a slab-mantle interface have been constrained by thermodynamic and trace element modelling of partially overprinted blueschist-facies rocks from the Sesia Zone (Western Alps). Deformation-induced differences in fluid flux led to a partial preservation of pristine mineral cores in weakly deformed samples that were used to quantify Li, B, Stand Pb distribution during mineral growth, -breakdown and modification induced by fluid-rock interaction. Our results show that Li and 13 budgets are fluid-controlled, thus acting as tracers for fluid-rock interaction processes, whereas Stand Pb budgets are mainly controlled by the fluid-induced formation of epidote. Our calculations show that fluid-rock interaction caused significant Li and B depletion in the affected rocks due to leaching effects, which in turn can lead to a drastic enrichment of these elements in the percolating fluid. Depending on available fluid-mineral trace element distribution coefficients modelled fluid rock ratios were up to 0.06 in weakly deformed samples and at least 0.5 to 4 in shear zone mylonites. These amounts lead to time integrated fluid fluxes of up to 1.4-10(2) m(3) m(-2) in the weakly deformed rocks and 1-8-10(3) m(3) m(-2) in the mylonites. Combined thermodynamic and trace element models can be used to quantify metamorphic fluid fluxes and the associated element transfer in complex, reacting rock systems and help to better understand commonly observed fluid-induced trace element trends in rocks and minerals from different geodynamic environments.
The pressures required for diamond and coesite formation far exceed conditions reached by even the deepest present-day orogenic crustal roots. Therefore the occurrence of metamorphosed continental crust containing these minerals requires processes other than crustal thickening to have operated in the past. Here we report the first in situ finding of diamond and coesite, characterized by micro-Raman spectroscopy, in high-pressure granulites otherwise indistinguishable from granulites found associated with garnet peridotite throughout the European Variscides. Our discovery confirms the provenance of Europe's first reliable diamond, the "Bohemian diamond," found in A.D. 1870, and also represents the first robust evidence for ultrahigh-pressure conditions in a major Variscan crustal rock type. A process of deep continental subduction is required to explain the metamorphic pressures and the granulite-garnet peridotite association, and thus tectonometamorphic models for these rocks involving a deep orogenic crustal root need to be significantly modified.
Northwest Europe's largest heather-dominated sandy habitats are located in the nature reserve Luneburger Heide, Germany. Yet, even these appear to be losing their ability to support some of their stenotopic species such as the ladybird spider, Eresus kollari Rossi 1846, and are thus becoming increasingly important for the preservation of these species. The habitat requirements of this endangered spider species were investigated in order to obtain data that will help stabilize the last remnants of the species' population in northwest Germany. Several heathland habitats were surveyed by pitfall trapping during the mate-search period of the males. Two statistical methods were applied: logistic regression and boosted regression trees (BRT). Both methods showed that three habitat variables are of prime relevance in predicting the occurrence of E. kollari: a) thickness of the organic layer (a negative effect), b) soil temperature at a depth of 10 cm, and c) Calluna cover in the herb layer (both have positive effect). Our results show that choppering (removing above-ground biomass and most of O-layer) and burning are likely appropriate heathland management measures for the conservation of E. kollari. Such measures improve the species' habitat quality by creating a heterogenic (small-scaled) heathland structure with suitable microhabitats. As Calluna heathlands show a clear senescence of the dominant heather, it is essential that those habitat patches be conserved. Further measures, such as transfer experiments, are recommended.
Salt diapirs are common features of sedimentary basins. If close to the surface, they can bear a significant hazard due to possible dissolution sinkholes, karst formation and collapse dolines or their influence on ground water chemistry. We investigate the potential of ambient vibration techniques to map the 3-D roof morphology of shallow salt diapirs. Horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) spectral peaks are derived at more than 900 positions above a shallow diapir beneath the city area of Hamburg, Germany, and are used to infer the depth of the first strong impedance contrast. In addition, 15 small-scale array measurements are conducted at different positions in order to compute frequency-dependent phase velocities of Rayleigh waves between 0.5 and 25 Hz. The dispersion curves are inverted together with the H/V peak frequency to obtain shear-wave velocity profiles. Additionally, we compare the morphology derived from H/V and array measurements to borehole lithology and a gravity-based 3-D model of the salt diapir. Both methods give consistent results in agreement with major features indicated by the independent data. An important result is that H/V and array measurements are better suited to identify weathered gypsum caprocks or gypsum floaters, while gravity-derived models better sample the interface between sediments and homogeneous salt. We further investigate qualitatively the influence of the 3-D subsurface topography of the salt diapir on the validity of local 1-D inversion results from ambient vibration dispersion curve inversion.
Bayesian networks are a powerful and increasingly popular tool for reasoning under uncertainty, offering intuitive insight into (probabilistic) data-generating processes. They have been successfully applied to many different fields, including bioinformatics. In this paper, Bayesian networks are used to model the joint-probability distribution of selected earthquake, site, and ground-motion parameters. This provides a probabilistic representation of the independencies and dependencies between these variables. In particular, contrary to classical regression, Bayesian networks do not distinguish between target and predictors, treating each variable as random variable. The capability of Bayesian networks to model the ground-motion domain in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is shown for a generic situation. A Bayesian network is learned based on a subset of the Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) dataset, using 3342 records from 154 earthquakes. Because no prior assumptions about dependencies between particular parameters are made, the learned network displays the most probable model given the data. The learned network shows that the ground-motion parameter (horizontal peak ground acceleration, PGA) is directly connected only to the moment magnitude, Joyner-Boore distance, fault mechanism, source-to-site azimuth, and depth to a shear-wave horizon of 2: 5 km/s (Z2.5). In particular, the effect of V-S30 is mediated by Z2.5. Comparisons of the PGA distributions based on the Bayesian networks with the NGA model of Boore and Atkinson (2008) show a reasonable agreement in ranges of good data coverage.
Hydrocarbons can be found in many different habitats and represent an important carbon source for microbes. As fossil fuels, they are also an important economical resource and through natural seepage or accidental release they can be major pollutants. DNA-specific stains and molecular probes bind to hydrocarbons, causing massive background fluorescence, thereby hampering cell enumeration. The cell extraction procedure of Kallmeyer et al. (2008) separates the cells from the sediment matrix. In principle, this technique can also be used to separate cells from oily sediments, but it was not originally optimized for this application. Here we present a modified extraction method in which the hydrocarbons are removed prior to cell extraction. Due to the reduced background fluorescence the microscopic image becomes clearer, making cell identification, and enumeration much easier. Consequently, the resulting cell counts from oily samples treated according to our new protocol are significantly higher than those treated according to Kallmeyer et al. (2008). We tested different amounts of a variety of solvents for their ability to remove hydrocarbons and found that n-hexane and in samples containing more mature oils methanol, delivered the best results. However, as solvents also tend to lyse cells, it was important to find the optimum solvent to sample ratio, at which hydrocarbon extraction is maximized and cell lysis minimized. A volumetric ratio of 1:2-1:5 between a formalin-fixed sediment slurry and solvent delivered highest cell counts. Extraction efficiency was around 30-50% and was checked on both oily samples spiked with known amounts of E. coli cells and oil-free samples amended with fresh and biodegraded oil. The method provided reproducible results on samples containing very different kinds of oils with regard to their degree of biodegradation. For strongly biodegraded oil MeOH turned out to be the most appropriate solvent, whereas for less biodegraded samples n-hexane delivered best results.
Sediment records of three European lakes were investigated in order to reconstruct the regional climate development during the Lateglacial and Holocene, to investigate the response of local ecosystems to climatic fluctuations and human impact and to relate regional peculiarities of past climate development to climatic changes on a larger spatial scale. The Lake Hańcza (NE Poland) sediment record was studied with a focus on reconstructing the early Holocene climate development and identifying possible differences to Western Europe. Following the initial Holocene climatic improvement, a further climatic improvement occurred between 10 000 and 9000 cal. a BP. Apparently, relatively cold and dry climate conditions persisted in NE Poland during the first ca. 1500 years of the Holocene, most likely due to a specific regional atmospheric circulation pattern. Prevailing anticyclonic circulation linked to a high-pressure cell above the remaining Scandinavian Ice Sheet (SIS) might have blocked the eastward propagation of warm and moist Westerlies and thus attenuated the early Holocene climatic amelioration in this region until the final decay of the SIS, a pattern different from climate development in Western Europe. The Lateglacial sediment record of Lake Mondsee (Upper Austria) was investigated in order to study the regional climate development and the environmental response to rapid climatic fluctuations. While the temperature rise and environmental response at the onset of the Holocene took place quasi-synchronously, major leads and lags in proxy responses characterize the onset of the Lateglacial Interstadial. In particular, the spread of coniferous woodlands and the reduction of detrital flux lagged the initial Lateglacial warming by ca. 500–750 years. Major cooling at the onset of the Younger Dryas took place synchronously with a change in vegetation, while the increase of detrital matter flux was delayed by about 150–300 years. Complex proxy responses are also detected for short-term Lateglacial climatic fluctuations. In summary, periods of abrupt climatic changes are characterized by complex and temporally variable proxy responses, mainly controlled by ecosystem inertia and the environmental preconditions. A second study on the Lake Mondsee sediment record focused on two small-scale climate deteriorations around 8200 and 9100 cal. a BP, which have been triggered by freshwater discharges to the North Atlantic, causing a shutdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). Combining microscopic varve counting and AMS 14C dating yielded a precise duration estimate (ca. 150 years) and absolute dating of the 8.2 ka cold event, both being in good agreement with results from other palaeoclimate records. Moreover, a sudden temperature overshoot after the 8.2 ka cold event was identified, also seen in other proxy records around the North Atlantic. This was most likely caused by enhanced resumption of the MOC, which also initiated substantial shifts of oceanic and atmospheric front systems. Although there is also evidence from other proxy records for pronounced recovery of the MOC and atmospheric circulation changes after the 9.1 ka cold event, no temperature overshoot is seen in the Lake Mondsee record, indicating the complex behaviour of the global climate system. The Holocene sediment record of Lake Iseo (northern Italy) was studied to shed light on regional earthquake activity and the influence of climate variability and anthropogenic impact on catchment erosion and detrital flux into the lake. Frequent small-scale detrital layers within the sediments reflect allochthonous sediment supply by extreme surface runoff events. During the early to mid-Holocene, increased detrital flux coincides with periods of cold and wet climate conditions, thus apparently being mainly controlled by climate variability. In contrast, intervals of high detrital flux during the late Holocene partly also correlate with phases of increased human impact, reflecting the complex influences on catchment erosion processes. Five large-scale event layers within the sediments, which are composed of mass-wasting deposits and turbidites, are supposed to have been triggered by strong local earthquakes. While the uppermost of these event layers is assigned to a documented adjacent earthquake in AD 1222, the four other layers are supposed to be related to previously undocumented prehistorical earthquakes.
From CDM to REDD+ - what do we know for setting up effective and legitimate carbon governance?
(2011)
This article compares two carbon governance instruments - the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) - to assess lessons from the former for the latter regarding effectiveness and legitimacy of such instruments. The article argues that the CDM has a relatively high degree of output-oriented legitimacy resulting in effectiveness and some input-oriented legitimacy, with few discernible tradeoffs between them. In contrasting this to REDD+, the hypotheses are advanced that (i) output-oriented legitimacy/effectiveness can again be achieved but that (ii) a higher degree of input-oriented legitimacy is necessary for REDD+ and thus also a certain trade-off between the two forms of legitimacy can be expected. This is shown through comparing the technologies and methodologies, economic rationales, political support, regulatory structures, and environmental impacts of both instruments.
Mountain ecosystems are commonly regarded as being highly sensitive to global change. Due to the system complexity and multifaceted interacting drivers, however, understanding current responses and predicting future changes in these ecosystems is extremely difficult. We aim to discuss potential effects of global change on mountain ecosystems and give examples of the underlying response mechanisms as they are understood at present. Based on the development of scientific global change research in mountains and its recent structures, we identify future research needs, highlighting the major lack and the importance of integrated studies that implement multi-factor, multi-method, multi-scale, and interdisciplinary research.
Overland flow is an important hydrological pathway in many forests of the humid tropics. Its generation is subject to topographic controls at differing spatial scales. Our objective was to identify such controls on the occurrence of overland flow in a lowland tropical rainforest. To this end, we installed 95 overland flow detectors (OFDs) in four nested subcatchments of the Lutzito catchment on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, and monitored the frequency of overland flow occurrence during 18 rainfall events at each OFD location temporal frequency. For each such location, we derived three non-digital terrain attributes and 17 digital ones, of which 15 were based on Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) of three different resolutions. These attributes then served as input into a Random Forest ensemble tree model to elucidate the importance and partial and joint dependencies of topographic controls for overland flow occurrence.
Lutzito features a high median temporal frequency in overland flow occurrence of 0.421 among OFD locations. However, spatial temporal frequencies of overland flow occurrence vary strongly among these locations and the subcatchments of Lutzito catchment. This variability is best explained by (1) microtopography, (2) coarse terrain sloping and (3) various measures of distance-to-channel, with the contribution of all other terrain attributes being small. Microtopographic features such as concentrated flowlines and wash areas produce highest temporal frequencies, whereas the occurrence of overland flow drops sharply for flow distances and terrain sloping beyond certain threshold values.
Our study contributes to understanding both the spatial controls on overland flow generation and the limitations of terrain attributes for the spatially explicit prediction of overland flow frequencies.
The Valais units in Savoy (Zone des BrSches de Tarentaise) have been re-mapped in great detail and are subject of combined stratigraphic, structural and petrological investigations summarized in this contribution. The sediments and rare relics of basement, together with Cretaceous age mafic and ultramafic rocks of the Valais palaeogeographical domain, represent the heavily deformed relics of the former distal European margin (External Valais units) and an ocean-continent transition (Internal Valais unit or Versoyen unit) that formed during rifting. This rifting led to the opening of the Valais ocean, a northern branch of the Alpine Tethys. Post-rift sediments referred to as "Valais trilogy" stratigraphically overlie both External and Internal Valais successions above an angular unconformity formed in Barremian to Aptian times, providing robust evidence for the timing of the opening of the Valais ocean. The Valais units in Savoy are part of a second and more external mid-Eocene high-pressure belt in the Alps that sutured the Brian double dagger onnais microcontinent to Europe. Top-N D1-deformation led to the formation of a nappe stack that emplaced the largely eclogite-facies Internal Valais unit (Versoyen) onto blueschist-facies External Valais units. The latter originally consisted of, from internal to external, the Petit St. Bernard unit, the Roc de l'Enfer unit, the MoA >> tiers unit and the Quermoz unit. Ongoing top-N D2-thrusting and folding substantially modified this nappe stack. Post 35 Ma D3 folding led to relatively minor modifications of the nappe stack within the Valais units but was associated with substantial top-WNW thrusting of the Valais units over the Dauphinois units along the Roselend thrust during W-directed indentation of the Adria block contributing to the formation of the arc of the Western Alps.
Swedish long-term soil fertility experiments were used to investigate the effect of texture and fertilization regime on soil electrical conductivity. In one geophysical approach, fields were mapped to characterize the horizontal variability in apparent electrical conductivity down to 1.5 m soil depth using an electromagnetic induction meter (EM38 device). The data obtained were geo-referenced by dGPS. The other approach consisted of measuring the vertical variability in electrical conductivity along transects using a multi-electrode apparatus for electrical resistivity tomography (GeoTom RES/IP device) down to 2 m depth. Geophysical field work was complemented by soil analyses. The results showed that despite 40 years of different fertilization regimes, treatments had no significant effects on the apparent electrical conductivity. Instead, the comparison of sites revealed high and low conductivity soils, with gradual differences explained by soil texture. A significant, linear relationship found between apparent electrical conductivity and soil clay content explained 80% of the variability measured. In terms of soil depth, both low and high electrical conductivity values were measured. Abrupt changes in electrical conductivity within a field revealed the presence of 'deviating areas'. Higher values corresponded well with layers with a high clay content, while local inclusions of coarse-textured materials caused a high variability in conductivity in some fields. The geophysical methods tested provided useful information on the variability in soil texture at the experimental sites. The use of spatial EC variability as a co-variable in statistical analysis could be a complementary tool in the evaluation of experimental results.
In this paper we evaluate different methods to predict soil erosion processes. We derived different layers of predictor variables for the study area in the Northern Chianti, Italy, describing the soil-lithologic complex, land use, and topographic characteristics. For a subcatchment of the Orme River, we mapped erosion processes by interpreting aerial photographs and field observations. These were classified as erosional response units (ERU), i.e. spatial areas of homogeneous erosion processes. The ERU were used as the response variable in the soil erosion modelling process. We applied two models i) bootstrap aggregation (Random Forest: RF), and ii) stochastic gradient boosting (TreeNet: TN) to predict the potential spatial distribution of erosion processes for the entire Orme River catchment. The models are statistically evaluated using training data and a set of performance parameters such as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Cohen's Kappa, and pseudo R2. Variable importance and response curves provide further insight into controlling factors of erosion. Both models provided good performance in terms of classification and calibration; however, TN outperformed RF. Similar classes such as active and inactive landslides can be discriminated and well interpreted by considering response curves and relative variable importance. The spatial distribution of the predicted erosion susceptibilities generally follows topographic constraints and is similar for both models. Hence, the model-based delineation of ERU on the basis of soil and terrain information is a valuable tool in geomorphology; it provides insights into factors controlling erosion processes and may allow the extrapolation and prediction of erosion processes in unsurveyed areas.
Dust has the potential to modify global climate by influencing the radiative balance of the atmosphere and by supplying iron and other essential limiting micronutrients to the ocean(1,2). Indeed, dust supply to the Southern Ocean increases during ice ages, and 'iron fertilization' of the subantarctic zone may have contributed up to 40 parts per million by volume (p. p. m. v.) of the decrease (80-100 p. p. m. v.) in atmospheric carbon dioxide observed during late Pleistocene glacial cycles(3-7). So far, however, the magnitude of Southern Ocean dust deposition in earlier times and its role in the development and evolution of Pleistocene glacial cycles have remained unclear. Here we report a high-resolution record of dust and iron supply to the Southern Ocean over the past four million years, derived from the analysis of marine sediments from ODP Site 1090, located in the Atlantic sector of the subantarctic zone. The close correspondence of our dust and iron deposition records with Antarctic ice core reconstructions of dust flux covering the past 800,000 years (refs 8, 9) indicates that both of these archives record large-scale deposition changes that should apply to most of the Southern Ocean, validating previous interpretations of the ice core data. The extension of the record beyond the interval covered by the Antarctic ice cores reveals that, in contrast to the relatively gradual intensification of glacial cycles over the past three million years, Southern Ocean dust and iron flux rose sharply at the Mid-Pleistocene climatic transition around 1.25 million years ago. This finding complements previous observations over late Pleistocene glacial cycles(5,8,9), providing new evidence of a tight connection between high dust input to the Southern Ocean and the emergence of the deep glaciations that characterize the past one million years of Earth history.
Recurrence plots and recurrence quantification analysis have become popular in the last two decades. Recurrence based methods have on the one hand a deep foundation in the theory of dynamical systems and are on the other hand powerful tools for the investigation of a variety of problems. The increasing interest encompasses the growing risk of misuse and uncritical application of these methods. Therefore, we point out potential problems and pitfalls related to different aspects of the application of recurrence plots and recurrence quantification analysis.
Lithopheric rheology at the Dead Sea Transform Fault constrained by thermo-mechanical modeling
(2011)
Ostracod shells in surface sediments from Ulungur Lake (Xinjiang, China) belong mainly to Limnocythere inopinata as the dominant species, and Candona neglecta and Darwinula stevensoni as accompanying, less abundant taxa. Shells of an additional nine species were recorded only sporadically. The three most abundant ostracods have wide tolerance ranges in terms of salinity, substrate and water depth. The similarly recorded bivalve Pisidium subtruncatum, and the gastropods Gyraulus chinensis and Radix auricularia belong to the most tolerant representatives of the genera. The bivalve and gastropods, in addition to the ostracod assemblage, reflect the fact that Ulungur Lake has experienced strong lake level and salinity variations due to water withdrawal in the catchment and the counteracting diversion of river waters to the lake in recent decades. The substrate in Ulungur Lake is typically fine-grained, apart from the delta region of the Ulungur River channel, which is marked by relatively coarse-grained detrital sediments barren of ostracod shells. This channel was created 40 years ago to divert water to Ulungur Lake and support its local fisheries and recreational facilities. A reassessed Holocene ostracod record from the lake shows that a significantly higher salinity and lower lake level existed in the early Holocene before 6.0 ka in response to the regional climate. In contrast, a higher lake level and lowest salinity is inferred for the late Holocene period between ca. 3.6 and 1.3 ka before present. Afterwards, the lake level declined and salinity increased in response to regional moisture reduction, although conditions similar to the early Holocene lake status were not re-established. Our surface-sediment-derived data provide a baseline for analysis of future environmental variations due to global climate change and regional water management.
Population-level effects of global warming result from concurrent direct and indirect processes. They are typically described by physiologically structured population models (PSPMs). Therefore, inverse modelling offers a tool to identify parameters of individual physiological processes through population-level data analysis, e. g. the temperature dependence of growth from size-frequency data of a field population. Here, we make use of experiments under laboratory conditions, in mesocosms and field monitoring to determine the temperature dependence of growth and mortality of Gammarus pulex. We found an optimum temperature for growth of approximately 17 degrees C and a related temperature coefficient, Q(10), of 1.5 degrees C(-1), irrespective of whether we classically fitted individual growth curves or applied inverse modelling based on PSPMs to laboratory data. From a comparison of underlying data sets we conclude that applying inverse modelling techniques to population-level data results in meaningful response parameters for physiological processes if additional temperature-driven effects, including within-population interaction, can be excluded or determined independently. If this is not the case, parameter estimates describe a cumulative response, e. g. comprising temperature-dependent resource dynamics. Finally, fluctuating temperatures in natural habitats increased the uncertainty in parameter values. Here, PSPM should be applied for virtual monitoring in order to determine a sampling scheme that comprises important dates to reduce parameter uncertainty.
The Dead Sea Transform (DST) is a major left-lateral strike-slip fault that accommodates the relative motion between the African and Arabian plates, connecting a region of extension in the Red Sea to the Taurus collision zone in Turkey over a length of about 1100 km. The Dead Sea Basin (DSB) is one of the largest basins along the DST. The DSB is a morphotectonic depression along the DST, divided into a northern and a southern sub-basin, separated by the Lisan salt diapir. We report on a receiver function study of the crust within the multidisciplinary geophysical project, DEad Sea Integrated REsearch (DESIRE), to study the crustal structure of the DSB. A temporary seismic network was operated on both sides of the DSB between 2006 October and 2008 April. The aperture of the network is approximately 60 km in the E-W direction crossing the DSB on the Lisan peninsula and about 100 km in the N-S direction. Analysis of receiver functions from the DESIRE temporary network indicates that Moho depths vary between 30 and 38 km beneath the area. These Moho depth estimates are consistent with results of near-vertical incidence and wide-angle controlled-source techniques. Receiver functions reveal an additional discontinuity in the lower crust, but only in the DSB and west of it. This leads to the conclusion that the internal crustal structure east and west of the DSB is different at the present-day. However, if the 107 km left-lateral movement along the DST is taken into account, then the region beneath the DESIRE array where no lower crustal discontinuity is observed would have lain about 18 Ma ago immediately adjacent to the region under the previous DESERT array west of the DST where no lower crustal discontinuity is recognized.
Despite the importance of rhizosphere properties for water flow from soil to roots, there is limited quantitative information on the distribution of water in the rhizosphere of plants.
Here, we used neutron tomography to quantify and visualize the water content in the rhizosphere of the plant species chickpea (Cicer arietinum), white lupin (Lupinus albus), and maize (Zea mays) 12 d after planting.
We clearly observed increasing soil water contents (h) towards the root surface for all three plant species, as opposed to the usual assumption of decreasing water content. This was true for tap roots and lateral roots of both upper and lower parts of the root system. Furthermore, water gradients around the lower part of the roots were smaller and extended further into bulk soil compared with the upper part, where the gradients in water content were steeper.
Incorporating the hydraulic conductivity and water retention parameters of the rhizosphere into our model, we could simulate the gradual changes of h towards the root surface, in agreement with the observations. The modelling result suggests that roots in their rhizosphere may modify the hydraulic properties of soil in a way that improves uptake under dry conditions.
We use Global Positioning System (GPS) velocities and kinematic Finite Element models (FE-models) to infer the state of locking between the converging Nazca and South America plates in South-Central Chile (36 degrees S -46 degrees S) and to evaluate its spatial and temporal variability. GPS velocities provide information on earthquake-cycle deformation over the last decade in areas affected by the megathrust events of 1960 (M-w = 9.5) and 2010 (M-w = 8.8). Our data confirm that a change in surface velocity patterns of these two seismotectonic segments can be related to their different stages in the seismic cycle: Accordingly, the northern (2010) segment was in a final stage of interseismic loading whereas the southern (1960) segment is still in a postseismic stage and undergoes a prolonged viscoelastic mantle relaxation. After correcting the signals for mantle relaxation, the residual GPS velocity pattern suggests that the plate interface accumulates slip deficit in a spatially and presumably temporally variable way towards the next great event. Though some similarity exist between locking and 1960 coseismic slip, extrapolating the current, decadal scale slip deficit accumulation towards the similar to 300-yr recurrence times of giant events here does neither yield the slip distribution nor the moment magnitude of the 1960 earthquake. This suggests that either the locking pattern is evolving in time (to reconcile a slip deficit distribution similar to the 1960 earthquake) or that some asperities are not persistent over multiple events. The accumulated moment deficit since 1960 suggests that highly locked patches in the 1960 segment are already capable of producing a M similar to 8 event if triggered to fail by stress transfer from the 2010 event.
Humidity is an important determinant of the mycotoxin production (DON, ZEA) by Fusarium species in the grain ears. From a landscape perspective humidity is not evenly distributed across fields. The topographically-controlled redistribution of water within a single field rather leads to spatially heterogeneous soil water content and air humidity. Therefore we hypothesized that the spatial distribution of mycotoxins is related to these topographically-controlled factors. To test this hypothesis we studied the mycotoxin concentrations at contrasting topographic relief positions, i.e. hilltops and depressions characterized by soils of different soil moisture regimes, on ten winter wheat fields in 2006 and 2007. Maize was the preceding crop and minimum tillage was practiced in the fields. The different topographic positions were associated with moderate differences in DON and ZEA concentrations in 2006, but with significant differences in 2007, with six times higher median ZEA and two times higher median DON detected at depression sites compared to the hilltops. The depression sites correspond to a higher topographic wetness index as well as redoximorphic properties in soil profiles, which empirically supports our hypothesis at least for years showing wetter conditions in sensitive time windows for Fusarium infections.
This study investigates spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of aquifer-river exchange flow at a reach of the River Leith, UK. Observations of sub-channel vertical hydraulic gradients at the field site indicate the dominance of groundwater up-welling into the river and the absence of groundwater recharge from surface water. However, observed hydraulic heads do not provide information on potential surface water infiltration into the top 0-15 cm of the streambed as these depths are not covered by the existing experimental infrastructure. In order to evaluate whether surface water infiltration is likely to occur outside the 'window of detection', i.e. the shallow streambed, a numerical groundwater model is used to simulate hydrological exchanges between the aquifer and the river. Transient simulations of the successfully validated model (Nash and Sutcliff efficiency of 0.91) suggest that surface water infiltration is marginal and that the possibility of significant volumes of surface water infiltrating into non-monitored shallow streambed sediments can be excluded for the simulation period. Furthermore, the simulation results show that with increasing head differences between river and aquifer towards the end of the simulation period, the impact of streambed topography and hydraulic conductivity on spatial patterns of exchange flow rates decreases. A set of peak flow scenarios with altered groundwater-surface water head gradients is simulated in order to quantify the potential for surface water infiltration during characteristic winter flow conditions following the observation period. The results indicate that, particularly at the beginning of peak flow conditions, head gradients are likely to cause substantial increase in surface water infiltration into the streambed. The study highlights the potential for the improvement of process understanding of hyporheic exchange flow patterns at the stream reach scale by simulating aquifer-river exchange fluxes with a standard numerical groundwater model and a simple but robust model structure and parameterization. Copyright
Quantification of subsurface water fluxes based on the one dimensional solution to the heat transport equation depends on the accuracy of measured subsurface temperatures. The influence of temperature probe setup on the accuracy of vertical water flux calculation was systematically evaluated in this experimental study. Four temperature probe setups were installed into a sand box experiment to measure temporal highly resolved vertical temperature profiles under controlled water fluxes in the range of +/- 1.3 md(-1). Pass band filtering provided amplitude differences and phase shifts of the diurnal temperature signal varying with depth depending on water flux. Amplitude ratios of setups directly installed into the saturated sediment significantly varied with sand box hydraulic gradients. Amplitude ratios provided an accurate basis for the analytical calculation of water flow velocities, which matched measured flow velocities. Calculated flow velocities were sensitive to thermal properties of saturated sediment and to temperature sensor spacing, but insensitive to thermal dispersivity equal to solute dispersivity. Amplitude ratios of temperature probe setups indirectly installed into piezometer pipes were influenced by thermal exchange processes within the pipes and significantly varied with water flux direction only. Temperature time lags of small sensor distances of all setups were found to be insensitive to vertical water flux.
Hudson Strait (HS) Heinrich Events, ice-rafting events in the North Atlantic originating from the Laurentide ice sheet (LIS), are among the most dramatic examples of millennial-scale climate variability and have a large influence on global climate. However, it is debated as to whether the occurrence of HS Heinrich Events in the (eastern) North Atlantic in the geological record depends on greater ice discharge, or simply from the longer survival of icebergs in cold waters. Using sediments from Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Site U1313 in the North Atlantic spanning the period between 960 and 320 ka, we show that sea surface temperatures (SSTs) did not control the first occurrence of HS Heinrich(-like) Events in the sedimentary record. Using mineralogy and organic geochemistry to determine the characteristics of ice-rafting debris (IRD), we detect the first HS Heinrich(-like) Event in our record around 643 ka (Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 16), which is similar as previously reported for Site U1308. However, the accompanying high-resolution alkenone-based SST record demonstrates that the first HS Heinrich(-like) Event did not coincide with low SSTs. Thus, the HS Heinrich(-like) Events do indicate enhanced ice discharge from the LIS at the end of the Mid-Pleistocene Transition, not simply the survivability of icebergs due to cold conditions in the North Atlantic.
Implementation of cartographic symbols for planetary mapping in geographic information systems
(2011)
The steadily growing international interest in the exploration of planets in our Solar System and many advances in the development of space-sensor technology have led to the launch of a multitude of planetary missions to Mercury, Venus, the Earth's moon, Mars and various Outer-Solar System objects, such as the Jovian and Saturnian satellites. Camera instruments carried along on these missions image surfaces in different wavelength ranges and under different viewing angles, permitting additional data to be derived, such as spectral data or digital terrain models. Such data enable researchers to explore and investigate the development of planetary surfaces by analyzing and interpreting the inventory of surface units and structures. Results of such work are commonly abstracted and represented in thematic, mostly geological and geomorphological, maps. In order to facilitate efficient collaboration among different planetary research disciplines, mapping results need to be prepared, described, managed, archived, and visualized in a uniform way. These tasks have been increasingly carried out by means of computer-based geographic information systems (GIS or Cl systems) which have come to be widely employed in the field of planetary research since the last two decades. In this paper we focus on the simplification of mapping processes, putting specific emphasis on a cartographically correct visualization of planetary mapping data using GIS-based environments. We present and discuss the implementation of a set of standardized cartographic symbols for planetary mapping based on the Digital Cartographic Standard for Geologic Map Symbolization as prepared by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for the Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC). Furthermore, we discuss various options to integrate this symbol catalog into generic GI systems, and more specifically into the Environmental Systems Research Institute's (ESRI) ArcGIS environment, and focus on requirements for symbol definitions in the field of planetary mapping. A symbology of this type can be embedded into any modular GIS environment capable in dealing with external stand-alone as well as database-driven management of symbol sets. Using such a uniform GIS-based symbol catalog will give the research community access to map results already cartographically elaborated, enabling them to create digital maps as a secondary data source in subsequent studies.
Secondary forests are gaining increased importance in tropical landscapes and have recently been reported to act as potential belowground carbon sinks. While economic interest in the management of secondary forests to mitigate carbon emissions is rising, the dynamics of soil carbon stocks under these ecosystems remain poorly understood. Recent studies report conflicting results concerning soil carbon trends as well as multiple confounding factors (e.g. soil type, topography and land-use history) affecting these trends. In this study, organic carbon stocks were measured in the mineral soil up to 20 cm depth of at 24 active pastures, 5-8-year-old, and 12-15-year-old secondary forest sites on former pastures. Additionally, we estimated carbon stocks under a 100-year-old secondary forest and compared them to those of nearby mature forests. Abiotic conditions in the study area were homogenous, enabling us to isolate the effect of land-use change on soil organic carbon stocks. Contrary to our expectations, soil carbon stocks in the top 10 cm did not change with young secondary forest development. Pasture soils stored 24.8 +/- 2.9 Mg ha(-1) carbon (mean +/- standard error) in the top 10 cm, and no accumulation of soil carbon was apparent during the first 15 years of secondary succession. Soil carbon stocks under 100-year-old secondary forests, averaging 43.0 +/- 7.9 Mg ha(-1) (mean +/- standard error), were clearly higher than those recorded at younger sites and approached levels of soil carbon stocks under mature forests. These data indicate that soil carbon stocks in this region of Panama are not affected by the land-use transition from pasture to young secondary regrowth. However, an increase of soil carbon storage might be possible over a longer period of time. Our results support trends observed in other tropical areas and highlight the importance of environmental conditions such as soil properties rather than land-use transitions on soil carbon dynamics. While our understanding of organic carbon dynamics in tropical soils remains limited, these results underscore the challenges of undertaking short-term reforestation projects with the expectation of increasing soil carbon sequestration.
The lakes of the East African Rift System (EARS) have been intensively studied to better understand the influence of climate change on hydrological systems. The exceptional sensitivity of these rift lakes, however, is both a challenge and an opportunity when trying to reconstruct past climate changes from changes in the hydrological budget of lake basins on timescales 100 to 104 years. On one hand, differences in basin geometrics (shape, area, volume, depth), catchment rainfall distributions and varying erosion-deposition rates complicate regional interpretation of paleoclimate information from lacustrine sediment proxies. On the other hand, the sensitivity of rift lakes often provides paleoclimate records of excellent quality characterized by a high signal-to-noise ratio. This study aims at better understanding of the climate-proxy generating process in rift lakes by parameterizing the geomorphological and hydroclimatic conditions of a particular site providing a step towards the establishment of regional calibrations of transfer functions for climate reconstructions. The knowledge of the sensitivity of a lake basin to climate change furthermore is crucial for a better assessment of the probability of catastrophic changes in the future, which bear risks for landscapes, ecosystems, and organisms of all sorts, including humans. Part 1 of this thesis explores the effect of the morphology and the effective moisture of a lake catchment. The availability of digital elevation models (DEM) and gridded climate data sets facilitates the comparison of the morphological and hydroclimatic conditions of rift lakes. I used the hypsometric integral (HI) calculated from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data to describe the morphology of ten lake basins in Kenya and Ethiopia. The aridity index (AI) describing the difference in the precipitation/evaporation balance within a catchment was used to compare the hydroclimatic of these basins. Correlating HI and AI with published Holocene lake-level variations revealed that lakes responding sensitively to relatively moderate climate change are typically graben shaped and characterized by a HI between 0.23-0.30, and relatively humid conditions with AI >1. These amplifier lakes, a term first introduced but not fully parameterized by Alayne Street-Perrott in the early 80s, are unexceptionally located in the crest of the Kenyan and Ethiopian domes. The non-amplifier lakes in the EARS either have lower HI 0.13-0.22 and higher AI (>1) or higher HI (0.31-0.37) and low AI (<1), reflecting pan-shaped morphologies with more arid hydroclimatic conditions. Part 2 of this work addresses the third important factor to be considered when using lake-level and proxy records to unravel past climate changes in the EARS: interbasin connectivity and groundwater flow through faulted and porous subsurface lithologies in a rift setting. First, I have compiled the available hydrogeological data including lithology, resistivity and water-well data for the adjacent Naivasha and Elmenteita-Nakuru basins in the Central Kenya Rift. Using this subsurface information and established records of lake-level decline at the last wet-dry climate transitions, i.e., the termination of the African Humid Period (AHP, 15 to 5 kyr BP), I used a linear decay model to estimate typical groundwater flow between the two basins. The results suggest a delayed response of the groundwater levels of ca. 5 kyrs if no recharge of groundwater occurs during the wet-dry transition, whereas the lag is 2-2.7 kyrs only using the modern recharge of ca. 0.52 m/yr. The estimated total groundwater flow from higher Lake Naivasha (1,880 m a.s.l. during the AHP) to Nakuru-Elmenteita (1,770 m) was 40 cubic kilometers. The unexpectedly large volume, more than half of the volume of the paleo-Lake Naivasha during the Early Holocene, emphasizes the importance of groundwater in hydrological modeling of paleo-lakes in rifts. Moreover, the subsurface connectivity of rift lakes also causes a significant lag time to the system introducing a nonlinear component to the system that has to be considered while interpreting paleo-lake records. Part 3 of this thesis investigated the modern intraseasonal precipitation variability within eleven lake basins discussed in the first section of the study excluding Lake Victoria and including Lake Tana. Remotely sensed rainfall estimates (RFE) from FEWS NET for 1996-2010, are used for the, March April May (MAM) July August September (JAS), October November (ON) and December January February (DJF). The seasonal precipitation are averaged and correlated with the prevailing regional and local climatic mechanisms. Results show high variability with Biennial to Triennial precipitation patterns. The spatial distribution of precipitation in JAS are linked to the onset and strength of the Congo Air Boundary (CAB) and Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) dynamics. while in ON they are related to the strength of Positive ENSO and IOD phases This study describes the influence of graben morphologies, extreme climate constrasts within catchments and basins connectivity through faults and porous lithologies on rift lakes. Hence, it shows the importance of a careful characterization of a rift lake by these parameters prior to concluding from lake-level and proxy records to climate changes. Furthermore, this study highlights the exceptional sensitivity of rift lakes to relatively moderate climate change and its consequences for water availability to the biosphere including humans.
Wavelet modelling of the gravity field by domain decomposition methods: an example over Japan
(2011)
With the advent of satellite gravity, large gravity data sets of unprecedented quality at low and medium resolution become available. For local, high resolution field modelling, they need to be combined with the surface gravity data. Such models are then used for various applications, from the study of the Earth interior to the determination of oceanic currents. Here we show how to realize such a combination in a flexible way using spherical wavelets and applying a domain decomposition approach. This iterative method, based on the Schwarz algorithms, allows to split a large problem into smaller ones, and avoids the calculation of the entire normal system, which may be huge if high resolution is sought over wide areas. A subdomain is defined as the harmonic space spanned by a subset of the wavelet family. Based on the localization properties of the wavelets in space and frequency, we define hierarchical subdomains of wavelets at different scales. On each scale, blocks of subdomains are defined by using a tailored spatial splitting of the area. The data weighting and regularization are iteratively adjusted for the subdomains, which allows to handle heterogeneity in the data quality or the gravity variations. Different levels of approximations of the subdomains normals are also introduced, corresponding to building local averages of the data at different resolution levels.
We first provide the theoretical background on domain decomposition methods. Then, we validate the method with synthetic data, considering two kinds of noise: white noise and coloured noise. We then apply the method to data over Japan, where we combine a satellite-based geopotential model, EIGEN-GL04S, and a local gravity model from a combination of land and marine gravity data and an altimetry-derived marine gravity model. A hybrid spherical harmonics/wavelet model of the geoid is obtained at about 15 km resolution and a corrector grid for the surface model is derived.
Characterizing the local site response in large cities is an important step towards seismic hazard assessment. To this regard, single station seismic noise measurements were carried out at 146 sites in the northern part of Santiago de Chile. This extensive survey allowed the fundamental resonance frequency of the sedimentary cover, derived from horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) spectral ratios, to be mapped. By inverting the spectral ratios under the constraint of the thickness of the sedimentary cover, known from previous gravimetric measurements, local S-wave velocity profiles have been retrieved. After interpolation between the individual profiles, the resulting high resolution 3D S-wave velocity model allows the entire area, as well as deeper parts of the basin, to be represented in great detail. Since one lithology shows a great scatter in the velocity values only a very general correlation between S-wave velocity in the uppermost 30 m (v(s)(30)) and local geology is found. Local S-wave velocity profiles can serve as a key factor in seismic hazard assessment, since they allow an estimate of the amplification potential of the sedimentary cover. Mapping the intensity distribution of the 27 February 2010 Maule, Chile, event (Mw = 8.8) the results indicate that local amplification of the ground motion might partially explain the damage distribution and encourage the use of the low cost seismic noise techniques for the study of seismic site effects.
Simulations of strong ground motion within the Santiago de Chile Metropolitan area were carried out by means of 3-D deterministic wave propagation tool based on the spectral element method. The simulated events take into account the pronounced interface between the low-velocity sedimentary basin and the bedrock as well as topography of the area. To verify our model we simulated a regional earthquake recorded by a dense network installed in the city of Santiago for recording aftershock activity after the 2010 February 27 Maule main shock. The results proof the alluvial basin amplification effects and show a strong dependence of spectral amplification in the basin on the local site conditions. Moreover, we studied the seismic response due to a hypothetical M(w) = 6.0 event occurring along the active San Ramon Fault, which is crossing the eastern edge of the city. The scenario earthquakes exhibit that an unfavourable interaction between fault rupture, radiation mechanism and complex geological and topographic conditions in the near-field region may give rise to large values of peak ground velocity in the basin. Finally, 3-D numerical predictions of ground motion are compared with the one computed according to ground motion prediction equations selected among the next generation attenuation relationships, in terms of ground motion peak values and spectral acceleration. The comparison underlines that the 3-D scenario simulations predict a significantly higher level of ground motion in the Santiago basin, especially over deep alluvial deposits. Moreover, also the location of the rupture nucleation largely influences the observed shaking pattern.
Classical methods to analyze the surface composition of atmosphereless planetary objects from an orbiter are IR and gamma ray spectroscopy and neutron backscatter measurements. The idea to analyze surface properties with an in-situ instrument has been proposed by Johnson et al. (1998). There, it was suggested to analyze Europa's thin atmosphere with an ion and neutral gas spectrometer. Since the atmospheric components are released by sputtering of the moon's surface, they provide a link to surface composition. Here we present an improved, complementary method to analyze rocky or icy dust particles as samples of planetary objects from which they were ejected. Such particles, generated by the ambient meteoroid bombardment that erodes the surface, are naturally present on all atmosphereless moons and planets. The planetary bodies are enshrouded in clouds of ballistic dust particles, which are characteristic samples of their surfaces. In situ mass spectroscopic analysis of these dust particles impacting onto a detector of an orbiting spacecraft reveals their composition. Recent instrumental developments and tests allow the chemical characterization of ice and dust particles encountered at speeds as low as 1 km/s and an accurate reconstruction of their trajectories. Depending on the sampling altitude, a dust trajectory sensor can trace back the origin of each analyzed grain with about 10 km accuracy at the surface. Since the detection rates are of the order of thousand per orbit, a spatially resolved mapping of the surface composition can be achieved. Certain bodies (e.g., Europa) with particularly dense dust clouds, could provide impact statistics that allow for compositional mapping even on single flybys. Dust impact velocities are in general sufficiently high at orbiters about planetary objects with a radius > 1000 km and with only a thin or no atmosphere. In this work we focus on the scientific benefit of a dust spectrometer on a spacecraft orbiting Earth's Moon as well as Jupiter's Galilean satellites. This 'dust spectrometer' approach provides key chemical and isotopic constraints for varying provinces or geological formations on the surfaces, leading to better understanding of the body's geological evolution.
The complete consumption of the oceanic domain of a tectonic plate by subduction into the upper mantle results in continent subduction, although continental crust is typically of lower density than the upper mantle. Thus, the sites of former oceanic domains (named suture zones) are generally decorated with stratigraphic sequences deposited along continental passive margins that were metamorphosed under low-grade, high-pressure conditions, i.e., low temperature/depth ratios (< 15°C/km) with respect to geothermal gradients in tectonically stable regions. Throughout the Mesozoic and Cenozoic (i.e., since ca. 250 Ma), the Mediterranean realm was shaped by the closure of the Tethyan Ocean, which likely consisted in numerous oceanic domains and microcontinents. However, the exact number and position of Tethyan oceans and continents (i.e., the Tethyan palaeogeography) remains debated. This is particularly the case of Western and Central Anatolia, where a continental fragment was accreted to the southern composite margin of the Eurasia sometime between the Late Cretaceous and the early Cenozoic. The most frontal part of this microcontinent experienced subduction-related metamorphism around 85-80 Ma, and collision-related metamorphism affected more external parts around 35 Ma. This unsually-long period between subduction- and collision-related metamorphisms (ca. 50 Ma) in units ascribed to the same continental edge constitutes a crucial issue to address in order to unravel how Anatolia was assembled. The Afyon Zone is a tectono-sedimentary unit exposed south and structurally below the front high-pressure belt. It is composed of a Mesozoic sedimentary sequence deposited on top of a Precambrian to Palaeozoic continental substratum, which can be traced from Northwestern to southern Central Anatolia, along a possible Tethyan suture. Whereas the Afyon Zone was defined as a low-pressure metamorphic unit, high-pressure minerals (mainly Fe-Mg-carpholite in metasediments) were recently reported from its central part. These findings shattered previous conceptions on the tectono-metamorphic evolution of the Afyon Zone in particular, and of the entire region in general, and shed light on the necessity to revise the regional extent of subduction-related metamorphism by re-inspecting the petrology of poorly-studied metasediments. In this purpose, I re-evaluated the metamorphic evolution of the entire Afyon Zone starting from field observations. Low-grade, high-pressure mineral assemblages (Fe-Mg-carpholite and glaucophane) are reported throughout the unit. Well-preserved carpholite-chloritoid assemblages are useful to improve our understanding of mineral relations and transitions in the FeO-MgO-Al2O3-SiO2-H2O system during rocks’ travel down to depth (prograde metamorphism). Inspection of petrographic textures, minute variations in mineral composition and Mg-Fe distribution among carpholite-chloritoid assemblages documents multistage mineral growth, accompanied by a progressive enrichment in Mg, and strong element partitioning. Using an updated database of mineral thermodynamic properties, I modelled the pressure and temperature conditions that are consistent with textural and chemical observations. Carpholite-bearing assemblages in the Afyon Zone account for a temperature increase from 280 to 380°C between 0.9 and 1.1 GPa (equivalent to a depth of 30-35 km). In order to further constrain regional geodynamics, first radiometric ages were determined in close association with pressure-temperature estimates for the Afyon Zone, as well as two other tectono-sedimentary units from the same continental passive margin (the Ören and Kurudere-Nebiler Units from SW Anatolia). For age determination, I employed 40Ar-39Ar geochronology on white mica in carpholite-bearing rocks. For thermobarometry, a multi-equilibrium approach was used based on quartz-chlorite-mica and quartz-chlorite-chloritoid associations formed at the expense of carpholite-bearing assemblages, i.e., during the exhumation from the subduction zone. This combination allows deciphering the significance of the calculated radiometric ages in terms of metamorphic conditions. Results show that the Afyon Zone and the Ören Unit represent a latest Cretaceous high-pressure metamorphic belt, and the Kurudere-Nebiler Unit was affected by subduction-related metamorphism around 45 Ma and cooled down after collision-related metamorphism around 26 Ma. The results provided in the present thesis and from the literature allow better understanding continental amalgamation in Western Anatolia. It is shown that at least two distinct oceanic branches, whereas only one was previously considered, have closed during continuous north-dipping subduction between 92 and 45 Ma. Between 85-80 and 70-65 Ma, a narrow continental domain (including the Afyon Zone) was buried into a subduction zone within the northern oceanic strand. Parts of the subducted continent crust were exhumed while the upper oceanic plate was transported southwards. Subduction of underlying lithosphere persisted, leading to the closure of the southern oceanic branch and to subduct the front of a second continental domain (including the Kurudere-Nebiler Unit). This followed by a continental collisional stage characterized by the cease of subduction, crustal thicknening and the detachment of the subducting oceanic slab from the accreted continent lithosphere. The present study supports that in the late Mesozoic the East Mediterranean realm had a complex tectonic configuration similar to present Southeast Asia or the Caribbean, with multiple, coexisting oceanic basins, microcontinents and subduction zones.
Soil moisture at the plot or hill-slope scale is an important link between local vadose zone hydrology and catchment hydrology. However, so far only a few methods are on the way to close this gap between point measurements and remote sensing. One new measurement methodology that could determine integral soil moisture at this scale is the aboveground sensing of cosmic-ray neutrons, more precisely of ground albedo neutrons. The present study performed ground albedo neutron sensing (GANS) at an agricultural field in northern Germany. To test the method it was accompanied by other soil moisture measurements for a summer period with corn crops growing on the field and a later autumn-winter period without crops and a longer period of snow cover. Additionally, meteorological data and aboveground crop biomass were included in the evaluation. Hourly values of ground albedo neutron sensing showed a high statistical variability. Six-hourly values corresponded well with classical soil moisture measurements, after calibration based on one reference dry period and three wet periods of a few days each. Crop biomass seemed to influence the measurements only to minor degree, opposed to snow cover which has a more substantial impact on the measurements. The latter could be quantitatively related to a newly introduced field neutron ratio estimated from neutron counting rates of two energy ranges. Overall, our study outlines a procedure to apply the ground albedo neutron sensing method based on devices now commercially available, without the need for accompanying numerical simulations and suited for longer monitoring periods after initial calibration.
We present the first winter (December to March) rainfall reconstruction based in a novel proxy, the thickness of annual calcite laminations preserved in Lake La Cruz (central-eastern Spain). A previous calibration analysis between laminae thickness and the instrumental data series (1950 to present) indicated a highly significant correlation with winter rainfall. Therefore this study attempts the winter rainfall reconstruction since the onset of laminations (1579 a.d.) by means of the calibration function previously developed. The verification analysis between inferred annual values and earlier instrumental data (1859-1949) confirms the suitability of this novel proxy and the reliability of the series reconstructed. The reconstructed series show the fluctuating character of winter rainfall in the western Mediterranean area; interdecadal dry periods alternated with wetter periods following, in a board sense, the pattern recorded by documentary sources in other regions of the Iberian Peninsula. At present times regional winter rainfall anomalies are highly correlated with the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). However the time series analysis showed the dominance of nonstationary components at high frequencies of the climate signal over the last four centuries suggesting that the connection between winter rainfall and the NAO has not been stable over time and also other modes of variability, not only NAO, may have conditioned winter rainfall variability.
Geophysical datasets sensitive to different physical parameters can be used to improve resolution of Earth's internal structure. Herein, we jointly invert long-period magnetotelluric (MT) data and surface-wave dispersion curves. Our approach is based on a joint inversion using a genetic algorithm for a one-dimensional (1-D) isotropic structure, which we extend to 1-D anisotropic media. We apply our new anisotropic joint inversion to datasets from Central Germany demonstrating the capacity of our joint inversion algorithm to establish a 1-D anisotropic model that fits MT and seismic datasets simultaneously and providing new information regarding the deep structure in Central Germany. The lithosphere/asthenosphere boundary is found at approx. 84 km depth and two main anisotropic layers with coincident most conductive/seismic fast-axis direction are resolved at lower crustal and asthenospheric depths. We also quantify the amount of seismic and electrical anisotropy in the asthenosphere showing an emerging agreement between the two anisotropic coefficients.
The Mahneshan Metamorphic Complex (MMC) is one of the Precambrian terrains exposed in the northwest of Iran. The MMC underwent two main phases of deformation (D-1 and D-2) and at least two metamorphic events (M-1 and M-2). Critical metamorphic mineral assemblages in the metapelitic rocks testify to regional metamorphism under amphibolite-facies conditions. The dominant metamorphic mineral assemblage in metapelitic rocks (M-1) is muscovite, biotite I, Garnet I, staurolite, Andalusite I and sillimanite. Peak metamorphism took place at 600-620 degrees C and similar to 7 kbar, corresponding to a depth of ca. 24 km. This was followed by decompression during exhumation of the crustal rocks up to the surface. The decrease of temperature and pressure during exhumation produced retrograde metamorphic assemblages (M-2). Secondary phases such as garnet II biotite It. Andalusite II constrain the temperature and pressure of M, retrograde metamorphism to 520-560 degrees C and 2.5-3.5 kbar, respectively. The geothermal gradient obtained for the peak of metamorphism is 33 degrees C km(-1), which indicates that peak metamorphism was of Barrovian type and occurred under medium-pressure conditions. The MMC followed a 'clockwise' P T path during metamorphism, consistent with thermal relaxation following tectonic thickening. The bulk chemistry of the MMC metapelites shows that their protoliths were deposited at an active continental margin. Together with the presence of palaeo-suture zones and ophiolitic rocks around the high-grade metamorphic rocks of the MMC, these features suggest that the Iranian Precambrian basement formed by an island-arc type cratonization.
Clearing for large-scale soy production and the displacement of cattle-breeding by soybeans are major features of land-use change in the lowland Amazon that can alter hydrologic properties of soils and the runoff generation over large areas. We measured infiltrability and saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat) under natural forest, pasture, and soybeans on Oxisols in a region of rapid soybean expansion in Mato Grosso, Brazil. The forest-pasture conversion reduced infiltrability from 1258 to 100 mm/h and Ksat at all depths. The pasture-soy conversion increased infiltrability from 100 to 469 mm/h (attributed to shallow disking), did not affect Ksat at 12.5 cm, but decreased Ksat at 30 cm from 122 to 80 mm/h, suggesting that soybean cultivation enhances subsoil compaction. Permeability decreased markedly with depth under forest, did not change under pasture, and averaged out at one fourth the forest value under soybeans with a similar pattern of anisotropy. Comparisons of permeability with rainfall intensities indicated that land-use change did not alter the predominantly vertical water movement within the soil. We conclude that this landscape is well buffered against land-use changes regarding near-surface hydrology, even though short-lived ponding and perched water tables may occur locally during high-intensity rainfall on pastures and under soybeans.
Logic trees have become the most popular tool for the quantification of epistemic uncertainties in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). In a logic-tree framework, epistemic uncertainty is expressed in a set of branch weights, by which an expert or an expert group assigns degree-of-belief values to the applicability of the corresponding branch models. Despite the popularity of logic-trees, however, one finds surprisingly few clear commitments to what logic-tree branch weights are assumed to be (even by hazard analysts designing logic trees). In the present paper we argue that it is important for hazard analysts to accept the probabilistic framework from the beginning for assigning logic-tree branch weights. In other words, to accept that logic-tree branch weights are probabilities in the axiomatic sense, independent of one's preference for the philosophical interpretation of probabilities. We demonstrate that interpreting logic-tree branch weights merely as a numerical measure of "model quality," which are then subsequently normalized to sum up to unity, will with increasing number of models inevitably lead to an apparent insensitivity of hazard curves on the logic-tree branch weights, which may even be mistaken for robustness of the results. Finally, we argue that assigning logic-tree branch weights in a sequential fashion may improve their logical consistency.
High Asian glacial landscapes have large variations in topographic relief and the size and steepness of snow accumulation areas. Associated differences in glacial cover and dynamics allow a first-order determination of the dominant processes shaping these landscapes. Here we provide a regional synthesis of the topography and flow characteristics of 287 glaciers across High Asia using digital elevation analysis and remotely sensed glacier surface velocities. Glaciers situated in low-relief areas on the Tibetan Plateau are mainly nourished by direct snowfall, have little or no debris cover, and have a relatively symmetrical distribution of velocities along their length. In contrast, avalanche-fed glaciers with steep accumulation areas, which occur at the deeply incised edges of the Tibetan Plateau, are heavily covered with supraglacial debris, and flow velocities are highest along short segments near their headwalls but greatly reduced along their debris-mantled lower parts. The downstream distribution of flow velocities suggests that the glacial erosion potential is progressively shifted upstream as accumulation areas get steeper and hillslope debris fluxes increase. Our data suggest that the coupling of hillslopes and glacial dynamics increases with topographic steepness and debris cover. The melt-lowering effect of thick debris cover allows the existence of glaciers even when they are located entirely below the snow line. However, slow velocities limit the erosion potential of such glaciers, and their main landscape-shaping contribution may simply be the evacuation of debris from the base of glacial headwalls, which inhibits the formation of scree slopes and thereby allows ongoing headwall retreat by periglacial hillslope processes. We propose a conceptual model in which glacially influenced plateau margins evolve from low-relief to high-relief landscapes with distinctive contributions of hillslope processes and glaciers to relief production and decay.
Controversy about the current state and future evolution of Himalayan glaciers has been stirred up by erroneous statements in the fourth report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(1,2). Variable retreat rates(3-6) and a paucity of glacial mass-balance data(7,8) make it difficult to develop a coherent picture of regional climate-change impacts in the region. Here, we report remotely-sensed frontal changes and surface velocities from glaciers in the greater Himalaya between 2000 and 2008 that provide evidence for strong spatial variations in glacier behaviour which are linked to topography and climate. More than 65% of the monsoon-influenced glaciers that we observed are retreating, but heavily debris-covered glaciers with stagnant low-gradient terminus regions typically have stable fronts. Debris-covered glaciers are common in the rugged central Himalaya, but they are almost absent in subdued landscapes on the Tibetan Plateau, where retreat rates are higher. In contrast, more than 50% of observed glaciers in the westerlies-influenced Karakoram region in the northwestern Himalaya are advancing or stable. Our study shows that there is no uniform response of Himalayan glaciers to climate change and highlights the importance of debris cover for understanding glacier retreat, an effect that has so far been neglected in predictions of future water availability(9,10) or global sea level(11).
In order to provide probabilistic projections of the future evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), we calibrated a simple Stommel-type box model to emulate the output of fully coupled three-dimensional atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Based on this calibration to idealised global warming scenarios with and without interactive atmosphere-ocean fluxes and freshwater perturbation simulations, we project the future evolution of the AMOC mean strength within the covered calibration range for the lower two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) until 2100 obtained from the reduced complexity carbon cycle-climate model MAGICC 6. For RCP3-PD with a global mean temperature median below 1.0 degrees C warming relative to the year 2000, we project an ensemble median weakening of up to 11% compared to 22% under RCP4.5 with a warming median up to 1.9 degrees C over the 21st century. Additional Greenland meltwater of 10 and 20 cm of global sea-level rise equivalent further weakens the AMOC by about 4.5 and 10 %, respectively. By combining our outcome with a multi-model sea-level rise study we project a dynamic sea-level rise along the New York City coastline of 4 cm for the RCP3-PD and of 8 cm for the RCP4.5 scenario over the 21st century. We estimate the total steric and dynamic sea-level rise for New York City to be about 24 cm until 2100 for the RCP3-PD scenario, which can hold as a lower bound for sea-level rise projections in this region, as it does not include ice sheet and mountain glacier contributions.
Climatic forcing on channel profiles in the eastern cordillera of the Coroico Region, Bolivia
(2011)
Orographic precipitation has a large impact on channel morphology and rock uplift via a positive feedback to erosion. We show that in the Eastern Cordillera of Bolivia, channel concavities reach their highest values where annual precipitation increases in the downstream direction, exceeding 3000 mm. The steepest channels are upstream of this zone of high concavity, where precipitation rates are <1000 mm yr(-1). Channels exhibit graded forms both upstream and downstream of this transient reach. We conclude that the prolonged effect of orographic erosion and related tectonic uplift is the preservation of channels with extreme concavities in the Eastern Cordillera.
Enhancing the resolution and accuracy of surface ground-penetrating radar (GPR) reflection data by inverse filtering to recover a zero-phased band-limited reflectivity image requires a deconvolution technique that takes the mixed-phase character of the embedded wavelet into account. In contrast, standard stochastic deconvolution techniques assume that the wavelet is minimum phase and, hence, often meet with limited success when applied to GPR data. We present a new general-purpose blind deconvolution algorithm for mixed-phase wavelet estimation and deconvolution that (1) uses the parametrization of a mixed-phase wavelet as the convolution of the wavelet's minimum-phase equivalent with a dispersive all-pass filter, (2) includes prior information about the wavelet to be estimated in a Bayesian framework, and (3) relies on the assumption of a sparse reflectivity. Solving the normal equations using the data autocorrelation function provides an inverse filter that optimally removes the minimum-phase equivalent of the wavelet from the data, which leaves traces with a balanced amplitude spectrum but distorted phase. To compensate for the remaining phase errors, we invert in the frequency domain for an all-pass filter thereby taking advantage of the fact that the action of the all-pass filter is exclusively contained in its phase spectrum. A key element of our algorithm and a novelty in blind deconvolution is the inclusion of prior information that allows resolving ambiguities in polarity and timing that cannot be resolved using the sparseness measure alone. We employ a global inversion approach for non-linear optimization to find the all-pass filter phase values for each signal frequency. We tested the robustness and reliability of our algorithm on synthetic data with different wavelets, 1-D reflectivity models of different complexity, varying levels of added noise, and different types of prior information. When applied to realistic synthetic 2-D data and 2-D field data, we obtain images with increased temporal resolution compared to the results of standard processing.
Three-dimensional hydrostratigraphic models from ground-penetrating radar and direct-push data
(2011)
Three-dimensional models of hydraulic conductivity and porosity are essential to understand and simulate groundwater flow in heterogeneous geological environments. However, considering the inherent limitations of traditional hydrogeological field methods in terms of resolution, alternative field approaches are needed to establish such 3-D models with sufficient accuracy. In this study, we developed a workflow combining 3-D structural information extracted from ground penetrating radar (GPR) images with 1-D in situ physical-property estimates from direct-push (DP) logging to construct a 3-D hydrostratigraphic model. To illustrate this workflow, we collected an similar to 70 m x 90 m 100 MHz 3-D GPR data set over a shallow sedimentary aquifer system resolving six different GPR facies down to similar to 15 m depth. DP logs of the relative dielectric permittivity, the relative hydraulic conductivity, the cone resistance, the sleeve friction and the pore pressure provided crucial data (1) to establish a GPR velocity model for 3-D depth migration and to check the time-to-depth conversion of the GPR data, and (2) to construct a 3-D hydrostratigraphic model. This model was built by assigning porosity values, which were computed from the DP relative dielectric permittivity logs, and DP relative hydraulic conductivity estimates to the identified GPR facies. We conclude that the integration of 3-D GPR structural images and 1-D DP logs of target physical parameters provides an efficient way for detailed 3-D subsurface characterization as needed, for example, for groundwater flow simulations.
Eclogites from the main borehole of the Chinese Continental Scientific Drilling project yield highly precise Lu-Hf garnet-clinopyroxene ages of 216.9 +/- 1.2 Ma (four samples) and 220.5 +/- 2.7 Ma (one sample). The spatial distribution of the rare earth elements in garnet is consistent with the preservation of primary growth zoning, unmodified by diffusion, which supports the interpretation that the Lu-Hf ages date the time of formation of garnet, the major rock forming mineral in the eclogites. The preservation of primary REE-zoning, despite peak metamorphic temperatures around 800-850 degrees C. indicates that the Lu-Hf chronometer is perfectly suitable to date garnet-forming reactions in high grade rocks. The range of Lu-Hf ages for eclogites in the Dabie-Sulu UHP terrane point to episodic rather than continuous growth of garnets and thus punctuated metamorphism during the collision of the North China Block and the Yangtze Block. The U-Pb ages and Hf-isotope systematics of zircon grains from one eclogite sample imply a protracted geologic history of the eclogite precursors that started around 2 Ga and culminated in the UHP metamorphism around 220 Ma.
Questions: Which are the factors that influence forest and shrubland loss and regeneration and their underlying drivers?
Location: Central Chile, a world biodiversity hotspot.
Methods: Using land-cover data from the years 1975, 1985, 1999 and 2008, we fitted classification trees and multiple logistic regression models to account for the relationship between different trajectories of vegetation change and a range of biophysical and socio-economic factors.
Results: The variables that most consistently showed significant effects on vegetation change across all time-intervals were slope and distance to primary roads. We found that forest and shrubland loss on one side and regeneration on the other often displayed opposite patterns in relation to the different explanatory variables. Deforestation was positively related to distance to primary roads and to distance within forest edges and was favoured by a low insolation and a low slope. In turn, forest regeneration was negatively related to the distance to primary roads and positively to the distance to the nearest forest patch, insolation and slope. Shrubland loss was positively influenced by slope and distance to cities and primary roads and negatively influenced by distance to rivers. Conversely, shrubland regeneration was negatively related to slope, distance to cities and distance to primary roads and positively related to distance from existing forest patches and distance to rivers.
Conclusions: This article reveals how biophysical and socioeconomic factors influence vegetation cover change and the underlying social, political and economical drivers. This assessment provides a basis for management decisions, considering the crucial role of perennial vegetation cover for sustaining biodiversity and ecosystem services.
We present an alarm-based earthquake forecast model that uses the early aftershock statistics (EAST). This model is based on the hypothesis that the time delay before the onset of the power-law aftershock decay rate decreases as the level of stress and the seismogenic potential increase. Here, we estimate this time delay from < t(g)>, the time constant of the Omori-Utsu law. To isolate space-time regions with a relative high level of stress, the single local variable of our forecast model is the E-a value, the ratio between the long-term and short-term estimations of < t(g)>. When and where the E-a value exceeds a given threshold (i.e., the c value is abnormally small), an alarm is issued, and an earthquake is expected to occur during the next time step. Retrospective tests show that the EAST model has better predictive power than a stationary reference model based on smoothed extrapolation of past seismicity. The official prospective test for California started on 1 July 2009 in the testing center of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). During the first nine months, 44 M >= 4 earthquakes occurred in the testing area. For this time period, the EAST model has better predictive power than the reference model at a 1% level of significance. Because the EAST model has also a better predictive power than several time-varying clustering models tested in CSEP at a 1% level of significance, we suggest that our successful prospective results are not due only to the space-time clustering of aftershocks.