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Changing food consumption patterns and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been a matter of scientific debate for decades. The agricultural sector is one of the major GHG emitters and thus holds a large potential for climate change mitigation through optimal management and dietary changes. We assess this potential, project emissions, and investigate dietary patterns and their changes globally on a per country basis between 1961 and 2007. Sixteen representative and spatially differentiated patterns with a per capita calorie intake ranging from 1,870 to >3,400 kcal/day were derived. Detailed analyses show that low calorie diets are decreasing worldwide, while in parallel diet composition is changing as well: a discernable shift towards more balanced diets in developing countries can be observed and steps towards more meat rich diets as a typical characteristics in developed countries. Low calorie diets which are mainly observable in developing countries show a similar emission burden than moderate and high calorie diets. This can be explained by a less efficient calorie production per unit of GHG emissions in developing countries. Very high calorie diets are common in the developed world and exhibit high total per capita emissions of 3.7-6.1 kg CO2eq./day due to high carbon intensity and high intake of animal products. In case of an unbridled demographic growth and changing dietary patterns the projected emissions from agriculture will approach 20 Gt CO2eq./yr by 2050.
This study provides a detailed analysis of the mid-Holocene to present-day precipitation change in the Asian monsoon region. We compare for the first time results of high resolution climate model simulations with a standardised set of mid-Holocene moisture reconstructions. Changes in the simulated summer monsoon characteristics (onset, withdrawal, length and associated rainfall) and the mechanisms causing the Holocene precipitation changes are investigated. According to the model, most parts of the Indian subcontinent received more precipitation (up to 5 mm/day) at mid-Holocene than at present-day. This is related to a stronger Indian summer monsoon accompanied by an intensified vertically integrated moisture flux convergence. The East Asian monsoon region exhibits local inhomogeneities in the simulated annual precipitation signal. The sign of this signal depends on the balance of decreased pre-monsoon and increased monsoon precipitation at mid-Holocene compared to present-day. Hence, rainfall changes in the East Asian monsoon domain are not solely associated with modifications in the summer monsoon circulation but also depend on changes in the mid-latitudinal westerly wind system that dominates the circulation during the pre-monsoon season. The proxy-based climate reconstructions confirm the regional dissimilarities in the annual precipitation signal and agree well with the model results. Our results highlight the importance of including the pre-monsoon season in climate studies of the Asian monsoon system and point out the complex response of this system to the Holocene insolation forcing. The comparison with a coarse climate model simulation reveals that this complex response can only be resolved in high resolution simulations.
On 2012 May 20 and 29, two damaging earthquakes with magnitudes M-w 6.1 and 5.9, respectively, struck the Emilia-Romagna region in the sedimentary Po Plain, Northern Italy, causing 26 fatalities, significant damage to historical buildings and substantial impact to the economy of the region. The earthquake sequence included four more aftershocks with M-w, >= 5.0, all at shallow depths (about 7-9 km), with similar WNW-ESE striking reverse mechanism. The timeline of the sequence suggests significant static stress interaction between the largest events. We perform here a detailed source inversion, first adopting a point source approximation and considering pure double couple and full moment tensor source models. We compare different extended source inversion approaches for the two largest events, and find that the rupture occurred in both cases along a subhorizontal plane, dipping towards SSW Directivity is well detected for the May 20 main shock, indicating that the rupture propagated unilaterally towards SE. Based on the focal mechanism solution, we further estimate the co-seismic static stress change induced by the May 20 event. By using the rate-and-state model and a Poissonian earthquake occurrence, we infer that the second largest event of May 29 was induced with a probability in the range 0.2-0.4. This suggests that the segment of fault was already prone to rupture. Finally, we estimate peak ground accelerations for the two main events as occurred separately or simultaneously. For the scenario involving hypothetical rupture areas of both main events, we estimate M-w = 6.3 and an increase of ground acceleration by 50 per cent. The approach we propose may help to quantify rapidly which regions are invested by a significant increase of the hazard, bearing the potential for large aftershocks or even a second main shock.
Reliable estimations of magnitude of completeness (M-c) are essential for a correct interpretation of seismic catalogues. The spatial distribution of M-c may be strongly variable and difficult to assess in mining environments, owing to the presence of galleries, cavities, fractured regions, porous media and different mineralogical bodies, as well as in consequence of inhomogeneous spatial distribution of the seismicity. We apply a 3-D modification of the probabilistic magnitude of completeness (PMC) method, which relies on the analysis of network detection capabilities. In our approach, the probability to detect an event depends on its magnitude, source receiver Euclidian distance and source receiver direction. The suggested method is proposed for study of the spatial distribution of the magnitude of completeness in a mining environment and here is applied to a 2-months acoustic emission (AE) data set recorded at the Morsleben salt mine, Germany. The dense seismic network and the large data set, which includes more than one million events, enable a detailed testing of the method. This method is proposed specifically for strongly heterogeneous media. Besides, it can also be used for specific network installations, with sensors with a sensitivity, dependent on the direction of the incoming wave (e.g. some piezoelectric sensors). In absence of strong heterogeneities, the standards PMC approach should be used. We show that the PMC estimations in mines strongly depend on the source receiver direction, and cannot be correctly accounted using a standard PMC approach. However, results can be improved, when adopting the proposed 3-D modification of the PMC method. Our analysis of one central horizontal and vertical section yields a magnitude of completeness of about M-c approximate to 1 (AE magnitude) at the centre of the network, which increases up to M-c approximate to 4 at further distances outside the network; the best detection performance is estimated for a NNE-SSE elongated region, which corresponds to the strike direction of the low-attenuating salt body. Our approach provides us with small-scale details about the capability of sensors to detect an earthquake, which can be linked to the presence of heterogeneities in specific directions. Reduced detection performance in presence of strong structural heterogeneities (cavities) is confirmed by synthetic waveform modelling in heterogeneous media.
Supra-glacial deposition and flux of catastrophic rock-slope failure debris, south-central Alaska
(2013)
The ongoing debate over the effects of global environmental change on Earth's cryosphere calls for detailed knowledge about process rates and their variability in cold environments. In this context, appraisals of the coupling between glacier dynamics and para-glacial erosion rates in tectonically active mountains remain rare. We contribute to filling this knowledge gap and present an unprecedented regional-scale inventory of supra-glacial sediment flux and hillslope erosion rates inferred from an analysis of 123 large (> 0 center dot 1km2) catastrophic bedrock landslides that fell onto glaciers in the Chugach Mountains, Alaska, as documented by satellite images obtained between 1972 to 2008. Assuming these supra-glacial landslide deposits to be passive strain markers we infer minimum decadal-scale sediment yields of 190 to 7400tkm-2yr-1 for a given glacier-surface cross-section impacted by episodic rock-slope failure. These rates compare to reported fluvial sediment yields in many mountain rivers, but are an order of magnitude below the extreme sediment yields measured at the snouts of Alaskan glaciers, indicating that the bulk of debris discharged derives from en-glacial, sub-glacial or ice-proximal sources. We estimate an average minimum para-glacial erosion rate by large, episodic rock-slope failures at 0 center dot 5-0 center dot 7mmyr-1 in the Chugach Mountains over a 50-yr period, with earthquakes likely being responsible for up to 73% of this rate. Though ranking amongst the highest decadal landslide erosion rates for this size of study area worldwide, our inferred rates of hillslope erosion in the Chugach Mountains remain an order of magnitude below the pace of extremely rapid glacial sediment export and glacio-isostatic surface uplift previously reported from the region.
This paper presents a simple approach for the temporal disaggregation from daily to 3-hourly observed gridded temperature and precipitation (1 x 1km(2)) on the national scale. The intended use of the disaggregated 3-hourly data is to recalibrate the hydrological model currently used by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) for daily flood forecasting. By adapting the hydrological model to a 3-hourly temporal scale, the flood forecasting can benefit from available meteorological forecasts with finer temporal resolution and can better represent critical events of short duration and at small spatial scales. By consulting the temporal patterns of a High-Resolution Limited-Area Model (HIRLAM) hindcast series for northern Europe with an hourly temporal and a 0.1 degrees spatial resolution, existing daily 1 x 1km(2) grids for temperature and precipitation covering all of Norway (the seNorge data) were disaggregated into 3-hourly values for the time period September 1957 to December 2010. For the period 2000-05, the disaggregated 3-hourly temperature and precipitation data are validated against observed values from five meteorological stations and against 3-hourly data from the HIRLAM hindcast and daily seNorge data simply split into eight fractions. The results show that the disaggregated data perform best with anomaly correlation coefficients between 0.89 and 0.92 for temperature. With regard to precipitation, the disaggregated data also provide the highest correlations and the lowest errors. In addition, the disaggregated data prove to be best in estimating intervals without precipitation and tend to be most appropriate in estimating extreme precipitation with low occurrence probability (<20%).
The Pleistocene archeological record in East Africa has revealed unusual accumulations of Acheulean handaxes at prehistoric sites. In particular, there has been intensive debate concerning whether the artifact accumulation at the Middle Pleistocene Olorgesailie (Southern Kenya Rift) and Kariandusi (Central Kenya Rift) sites were a result of fluvial reworking or of in situ deposition by hominids. We used a two-step approach to test the hypothesis of fluvial reworking. Firstly, the behavior of handaxes in water currents was investigated in a current flume and the flow threshold required to reorientate the handaxes was determined. The results of these experiments suggested that, in relatively high energy and non-steady flow conditions, handaxes will reorientate themselves perpendicular to the current direction. Secondly, an automated image analysis routine was developed and applied to archeological plans from three Acheulean sites, two at Olorgesailie and one at Kariandusi, in order to determine the orientations of the handaxes. A Rayleigh test was then applied to the orientation data to test for a preferred orientation. The results revealed that the handaxes at the Upper Kariandusi Site and the Olorgesailie Main Site Mid Trench had a preferential orientation, suggesting reworking by a paleocurrent. The handaxes from the Olorgesailie Main Site H/6A, however, appeared to be randomly oriented and in situ deposition by the producers therefore remains a possibility.
In the last decade growing interest has emerged in quantifying the spatial and temporal variations in mountain building. Until recently, insufficient data have been available to attempt such a task at the scale of large orogens such as the Himalaya. The Himalaya accommodates ongoing convergence between India and Eurasia and is a focal point for studying orogen evolution and hypothesized interactions between tectonics and climate. Here we integrate 1126 published bedrock mineral cooling ages with a transient 1D Monte-Carlo thermal-kinematic erosion model to quantify the denudation histories along similar to 2700 km of the Himalaya. The model free parameter is a temporally variable denudation rate from 50 Ma to present. Thermophysical material properties and boundary conditions were tuned to individual study areas. Monte-Carlo simulations were conducted to identify the range of denudation histories that can reproduce the observed cooling ages. Results indicate large temporal and spatial variations in denudation and these are resolvable across different tectonic units of the Himalaya. More specifically, across > 1000 km of the southern Greater Himalaya denudation rates were highest (similar to 1.5-3 mm/yr) between similar to 10 and 2 Ma and lower (0.5-2.6 mm/yr) over the last 2 My. These differences are best determined in the NW-Himalaya. In contrast to this, across the similar to 2500 km length of the northern Greater Himalaya denudation rates vary over length scales of similar to 300-1700 km. Slower denudation (<1 mm/yr) occurred between 10 and 4 Ma followed by a large increase (1.2-2.6 mm/yr) in the last similar to 4 Ma. We find that only the southern Greater Himalayan Sequence clearly supports a continuous co-evolution of tectonics, climate and denudation. Results from the higher elevation northern Greater Himalaya suggest either tectonic driven variations in denudation due to a ramp-flat geometry in the main decollement and/or recent glacially enhanced denudation.
The northward motion of the Pamir indenter with respect to Eurasia has resulted in coeval thrusting, strike-slip faulting, and normal faulting. The eastern Pamir is currently deformed by east-west oriented extension, accompanied by uplift and exhumation of the Kongur Shan (7719m) and Muztagh Ata (7546m) gneiss domes. Both domes are an integral part of the footwall of the Kongur Shan extensional fault system (KES), a 250 km long, north-south oriented graben. Why active normal faulting within the Pamir is primarily localized along the KES and not distributed more widely throughout the orogen has remained unclear. In addition, relatively little is known about how deformation has evolved throughout the Cenozoic, despite refined estimates on present-day crustal deformation rates and microseismicity, which indicate where crustal deformation is presently being accommodated. To better constrain the spatiotemporal evolution of faulting along the KES, we present 39 new apatite fission track, zircon U-Th-Sm/He, and Ar-40/Ar-39 cooling ages from a series of footwall transects along the KES graben shoulder. Combining these data with present-day topographic relief, 1-D thermokinematic and exhumational modeling documents successive stages, rather than synchronous deformation and gneiss dome exhumation. While the exhumation of the Kongur Shan commenced during the late Miocene, extensional processes in the Muztagh Ata massif began earlier and have slowed down since the late Miocene. We present a new model of synorogenic extension suggesting that thermal and density effects associated with a lithospheric tear fault along the eastern margin of the subducting Alai slab localize extensional upper plate deformation along the KES and decouple crustal motion between the central/western Pamir and eastern Pamir/Tarim basin.
Basement-cored ranges formed by reverse faulting within intracontinental mountain belts are often composed of poly-deformed lithologies. Geological data capable of constraining the timing, magnitude, and distribution of the most recent deformational phase are usually missing in such ranges. In this paper, we present new low temperature thermochronological and geological data from a transect through the basement-cored Terskey Range, located in the Kyrgyz Tien Shan. Using these data, we are able to investigate the range's late Cenozoic deformation for the first time. Displacements on reactivated faults are constrained and deformation of thermochronologically derived structural markers is assessed. These structural markers postdate the earlier deformational phases, providing the only record of Cenozoic deformation and of the reactivation of structures within the Terskey Range. Overall, these structural markers have a southern inclination, interpreted to reflect the decreasing inclination of the reverse fault bounding the Terskey Range. Our thermochronological data are also used to investigate spatial and temporal variations in the exhumation of the Terskey Range, identifying a three-stage Cenozoic exhumation history: (1) virtually no exhumation in the Paleogene, (2) increase to slightly higher exhumation rates at similar to 26-20Ma, and (3) significant increase in exhumation starting at similar to 10Ma.