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Protection motivation theory (PMT) has become a popular theory to explain the risk-reducing behavior of residents against natural hazards. PMT captures the two main cognitive processes that individuals undergo when faced with a threat, namely, threat appraisal and coping appraisal. The latter describes the evaluation of possible response measures that may reduce or avert the perceived threat. Although the coping appraisal component of PMT was found to be a better predictor of protective intentions and behavior, little is known about the factors that influence individuals’ coping appraisals of natural hazards. More insight into flood-coping appraisals of PMT, therefore, are needed to better understand the decision-making process of individuals and to develop effective risk communication strategies. This study presents the results of two surveys among more than 1,600 flood-prone households in Germany and France. Five hypotheses were tested using multivariate statistics regarding factors related to flood-coping appraisals, which were derived from the PMT framework, related literature, and the literature on social vulnerability. We found that socioeconomic characteristics alone are not sufficient to explain flood-coping appraisals. Particularly, observational learning from the social environment, such as friends and neighbors, is positively related to flood-coping appraisals. This suggests that social norms and networks play an important role in flood-preparedness decisions. Providing risk and coping information can also have a positive effect. Given the strong positive influence of the social environment on flood-coping appraisals, future research should investigate how risk communication can be enhanced by making use of the observed social norms and network effects.
After a comprehensive geophysical prospecting the Quaternary MA 1/2 tina Maar, located on a line between the two Quaternary scoria cones Komorni could be revealed by a scientific drilling at the German-Czech border in 2007. Further geophysical field investigations led to the discovery of another geological structure about 2.5 km ESE of the small town Neualbenreuth (NE-Bavaria, Germany), inferred to be also a maar structure, being the fourth volcanic feature aligned along the NW-SE trending Tachov fault zone. It is only faintly indicated as a partial circular rim in the digital elevation model. Though not expressed by a clear magnetic anomaly, geoelectric and refraction seismic tomography strongly indicates a bowl-shaped depression filled with low-resistivity and low-velocity material, correlating well with the well-defined negative gravity anomaly of - 2.5 mGal. Below ca. 15 m-thick debris layer, successions of mostly laminated sediments were recovered in a 100 m-long sediment core in 2015. Sections of finely laminated layers, likely varves, rich in organic matter and tree pollen, were recognized in the upper (22-30 m) and lower (70-86 m) part of the core, respectively, interpreted as interglacials, whereas mostly minerogenic laminated deposits, poor in organic matter, and (almost) barren of tree pollen are interpreted as clastic glacial deposits. According to a preliminary age model based on magnetostratigraphy, palynology, radiocarbon dating, and cyclostratigraphy, the recovered sediments span the time window from about 85 ka back to about 270 ka, covering marine isotope stages 5-8. Sedimentation rates are in the range of 10 cm ka(-1) in interglacials and up to 100 cm ka(-1) in glacial phases. The stratigraphic record resembles the one from MA 1/2 tina Maar, with its eruption date being derived from a nearby tephra deposit at 288 +/- 17 ka, thus supporting the age model of the inferred Neualbenreuth Maar.
To safeguard the sustainable use of ecosystems and their services, early detection of potentially damaging changes in functional capabilities is needed. To support a proper ecosystem management, the analysis of an ecosystem’s vulnerability provide information on its weaknesses as well as on its capacity to recover after suffering an impact. However, the application of the vulnerability concept to ecosystems is still an emerging topic. After providing background on the vulnerability concept, we summarize existing ecosystem vulnerability research on the basis of a systematic literature review with a special focus on ecosystem type, disciplinary background, and more detailed definition of the ecosystem vulnerability components. Using the Web of ScienceTM Core Collection, we overviewed the literature from 1991 onwards but used the 5 years from 2011 to 2015 for an in-depth analysis, including 129 articles. We found that ecosystem vulnerability analysis has been applied most notably in conservation biology, climate change research, and ecological risk assessments, pinpointing a limited spreading across the environmental sciences. It occurred primarily within marine and freshwater ecosystems. To avoid confusion, we recommend using the unambiguous term ecosystem vulnerability rather than ecological, environmental, population, or community vulnerability. Further, common ground has been identified, on which to define the ecosystem vulnerability components exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We propose a framework for ecosystem assessments that coherently connects the concepts of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptability as different ecosystem responses. A short outlook on the possible operationalization of the concept by ecosystem vulnerabilty indices, and a conclusion section complete the review.
The use of chironomids (Diptera: Chironomidae) as indicators of changes in natural and climatic settings allows one to reconstruct paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental conditions. Based on the results of lithological and chironomid analyses, the loss on ignition (LOI) values, as well as the results of radiocarbon dating (C-14 AMS), new data on the paleoclimate in the Karelian Isthmus, in particular the quantitative reconstruction of the mean July temperature (T (July), A degrees C) in the Late Pleistocene and Holocene and the evolution of the ecosystem of Medvedevskoe Lake have been obtained.
Quantifying the pace of ice-sheet growth is critical to understanding ice-age climate and dynamics. Here, we show that the diversion of the Hudson River (northeastern North America) late in the last glaciation phase (ca. 30 ka), which some previous studies have speculated was due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), can be used to infer the timing of the Laurentide Ice Sheet’s growth to its maximum extent. Landscapes in the vicinity of glaciated regions have likely responded to crustal deformation produced by ice-sheet growth and decay through river drainage reorganization, given that rates of uplift and subsidence are on the order of tens of meters per thousand years. We perform global, gravitationally self-consistent simulations of GIA and input the predicted crustal deformation field into a landscape evolution model. Our calculations indicate that the eastward diversion of the Hudson River at 30 ka is consistent with exceptionally rapid growth of the Laurentide Ice Sheet late in the glaciation phase, beginning at 50–35 ka.
Landslide hazard motivates the need for a deeper understanding of the events that occur before, during, and after catastrophic slope failures. Due to the destructive nature of such events, in situ observation is often difficult or impossible. Here, we use data from a network of 58 seismic stations to characterise a large landslide at the Askja caldera, Iceland, on 21 July 2014. High data quality and extensive network coverage allow us to analyse both long- and short-period signals associated with the landslide, and thereby obtain information about its triggering, initiation, timing, and propagation. At long periods, a landslide force history inversion shows that the Askja landslide was a single, large event starting at the SE corner of the caldera lake at 23:24:05 UTC and propagating to the NW in the following 2 min The bulk sliding mass was 7-16 x 10(10) kg, equivalent to a collapsed volume of 35-80 x 10(6) m(3). The sliding mass was displaced downslope by 1260 +/- 250 m. At short periods, a seismic tremor was observed for 30 min before the landslide. The tremor is approximately harmonic with a fundamental frequency of 2.3 Hz and shows time-dependent changes of its frequency content. We attribute the seismic tremor to stick-slip motion along the landslide failure plane. Accelerating motion leading up to the catastrophic slope failure culminated in an aseismic quiescent period for 2 min before the landslide. We propose that precursory seismic signals may be useful in landslide early-warning systems. The 8 h after the main landslide failure are characterised by smaller slope failures originating from the destabilised caldera wall decaying in frequency and magnitude. We introduce the term "afterslides" for this subsequent, declining slope activity after a large landslide.
A comprehensive hydro-sedimentological dataset for the Isabena catchment, northeastern (NE) Spain, for the period 2010-2018 is presented to analyse water and sediment fluxes in a Mediterranean mesoscale catchment. The dataset includes rainfall data from 12 rain gauges distributed within the study area complemented by meteorological data of 12 official meteo-stations. It comprises discharge data derived from water stage measurements as well as suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs) at six gauging stations of the River Isabena and its sub-catchments. Soil spectroscopic data from 351 suspended sediment samples and 152 soil samples were collected to characterize sediment source regions and sediment properties via fingerprinting analyses. The Isabena catchment (445 km(2)) is located in the southern central Pyrenees ranging from 450 m to 2720 m a.s.l.; together with a pronounced topography, this leads to distinct temperature and precipitation gradients. The River Isabena shows marked discharge variations and high sediment yields causing severe siltation problems in the downstream Barasona Reservoir. The main sediment source is badland areas located on Eocene marls that are well connected to the river network. The dataset features a comprehensive set of variables in a high spatial and temporal resolution suitable for the advanced process understanding of water and sediment fluxes, their origin and connectivity and sediment budgeting and for the evaluation and further development of hydro-sedimentological models in Mediterranean mesoscale mountainous catchments.
For over a century, geomorphologists have attempted to unravel information about landscape evolution, and processes that drive it, using river profiles. Many studies have combined new topographic datasets with theoretical models of channel incision to infer erosion rates, identify rock types with different resistance to erosion, and detect potential regions of tectonic activity. The most common metric used to analyse river profile geometry is channel steepness, or k(s). However, the calculation of channel steepness requires the normalisation of channel gradient by drainage area. This normalisation requires a power law exponent that is referred to as the channel concavity index. Despite the concavity index being crucial in determining channel steepness, it is challenging to constrain. In this contribution, we compare both slope-area methods for calculating the concavity index and methods based on integrating drainage area along the length of the channel, using so-called "chi" (chi) analysis. We present a new chi-based method which directly compares chi values of tributary nodes to those on the main stem; this method allows us to constrain the concavity index in transient landscapes without assuming a linear relationship between chi and elevation. Patterns of the concavity index have been linked to the ratio of the area and slope exponents of the stream power incision model (m/n); we therefore construct simple numerical models obeying detachment-limited stream power and test the different methods against simulations with imposed m and n. We find that chi-based methods are better than slope-area methods at reproducing imposed m/n ratios when our numerical landscapes are subject to either transient uplift or spatially varying uplift and fluvial erodibility. We also test our methods on several real landscapes, including sites with both lithological and structural heterogeneity, to provide examples of the methods' performance and limitations. These methods are made available in a new software package so that other workers can explore how the concavity index varies across diverse landscapes, with the aim to improve our understanding of the physics behind bedrock channel incision.
The impact of reservoir heterogeneities on High-Temperature aquifer thermal energy storage systems
(2018)
We conducted a geoscientific feasibility study for the development of a high-temperature thermal aquifer energy storage system (HT-ATES) outside the capital of Muscat, northern Oman. The aquifer storage is part of a solar geothermal cooling project for the sustainable and continuous cooling of office buildings. The main concept is that excess solar energy will be stored in the subsurface through hot water injection and subsequently utilised as auxiliary energy source during peak demand times. The characterisation of aquifer heterogeneities is thus essential to predict subsurface thermal heat plume development and recovery efficiency of the storage system. We considered two aquifer systems as potential storage horizons, (i) a clastic-dominated alluvial fan system where individual channel systems in combination with diagenetic alterations constitute the main heterogeneities and (ii) a carbonate-dominated system represented by a homogenous layer-cake architecture. The feasibility study included a multidisciplinary approach from initial field work, geocellular reservoir modelling to finite element fluid flow and thermal modelling. Our results show that for the HT-ATES system, with a high frequency of injection and production cycles, heat loss mainly occurs due to heterogeneities in the permeability field of the aquifer in combination with buoyancy driven vertical fluid flow. An impermeable cap-rock is needed to keep the heat plume in place. Conductive heat loss is a minor issue. Highly complex heat plume geometries are apparent in the clastic channel system and ATES well planning is challenging due to the complex and interconnected high permeable channels. The carbonate sequence shows uniform plume geometries due to the layer cake architecture of the system and is tentatively more suitable for ATES development. Based on our findings we propose the general concept of HT-ATES traps, incorporating and building on expertise and knowledge from petroleum and reservoir geology regarding reservoir rocks and suitable trap&seal geometries. The concept can be used as guideline for future high-temperature aquifer storage exploration and development.
With increasing amount of strong motion data, Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) developers are able to quantify empirical site amplification functions (delta S2S(s)) from GMPE residuals, for use in site-specific Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment. In this study, we first derive a GMPE for 5% damped Pseudo Spectral Acceleration (g) of Active Shallow Crustal earthquakes in Japan with 3.4 <= M-w <= 7.3 and 0 <= R-JB <= 600km. Using k-mean spectral clustering technique, we then classify our estimated delta S2S(s)(T = 0.01 - 2s) of 588 wellcharacterized sites, into 8 site clusters with distinct mean site amplification functions, and within-cluster site-tosite variability similar to 50% smaller than the overall dataset variability (phi(S2S)). Following an evaluation of existing schemes, we propose a revised data-driven site classification characterized by kernel density distributions of V-s30, V-s10, H-800, and predominant period (T-G) of the site clusters.
It is well-known that prey species often face trade-offs between defense against predation and competitiveness, enabling predator-mediated coexistence. However, we lack an understanding of how the large variety of different defense traits with different competition costs affects coexistence and population dynamics. Our study focusses on two general defense mechanisms, that is, pre-attack (e.g., camouflage) and post-attack defenses (e.g., weaponry) that act at different phases of the predator—prey interaction. We consider a food web model with one predator, two prey types and one resource. One prey type is undefended, while the other one is pre- or post-attack defended paying costs either by a higher half-saturation constant for resource uptake or a lower maximum growth rate. We show that post-attack defenses promote prey coexistence and stabilize the population dynamics more strongly than pre-attack defenses by interfering with the predator's functional response: Because the predator spends time handling “noncrackable” prey, the undefended prey is indirectly facilitated. A high half-saturation constant as defense costs promotes coexistence more and stabilizes the dynamics less than a low maximum growth rate. The former imposes high costs at low resource concentrations but allows for temporally high growth rates at predator-induced resource peaks preventing the extinction of the defended prey. We evaluate the effects of the different defense mechanisms and costs on coexistence under different enrichment levels in order to vary the importance of bottom-up and top-down control of the prey community.
The literature contains a sizable number of publications where weather types are used to decompose climate shifts or trends into contributions of frequency and mean of those types. They are all based on the product rule, that is, a transformation of a product of sums into a sum of products, the latter providing the decomposition. While there is nothing to argue about the transformation itself, its interpretation as a climate shift or trend decomposition is bound to fail. While the case of a climate shift may be viewed as an incomplete description of a more complex behaviour, trend decomposition indeed produces bogus trends, as demonstrated by a synthetic counterexample with well-defined trends in type frequency and mean. Consequently, decompositions based on that transformation, be it for climate shifts or trends, must not be used.
In areas characterized by many volcanoes, identifying the source of a deposit may not be trivial. This becomes much more complicated when looking for the source of a debris avalanche deposit (DAD), the common products of catastrophic volcanic edifice collapses. To overcome this problem, in this work a methodology is proposed based on the integration of texture features and areal distribution of the deposit, comparison between the petrography of the coarser clasts within the DAD and of the proximal products, grain-size analysis, and the volumetric estimations of the deposit and the volume missing from the volcanic edifice. This methodology has been tested to a DAD occurred near the city of Ibarra (Imbabura Province; Northern Ecuador), having a controversial source. Two main volcanic edifice are located in proximity of the DAD, the Cubilche volcano (3826 m.a.s.l.), located immediately south of and east of the colossal dormant Imbabura volcano. The former displays a sharp horseshoe shaped scar towards the north and inside this post-collapse edifice, that we name old Cubilche volcano (OCV), is located the young Cubilche volcano (YCV) that refilled a portion of the collapse scar and partially covered the southern flank of the OCV. Detailed knowledge of Cubilche volcano is critical because of its close proximity and interspersed activity with Imbabura volcano. In fact, Imbabura most recent edifice was built over the northwestern slope of the OCV and partially covered it. Recent studies linked the studied DAD to both Imbabura volcano as a product of its northern sector collapse, as well as neighboring Cubilche volcano. Our data points to Cubilche as the most likely source for this DAD. A perspective view of the shaded relief image of the present day OCV shows that the morphology of the volcano is well-preserved on its southern, eastern, and western flanks. This allows us to reconstruct the morphology of the OCV previous to the collapse through interpolation of elevation and altitude data of preserved flanks. A DEM of the present day topography was used for extrapolating the morphology. Using similar methodology, the post collapse base of the amphitheater was reconstructed by removing the relief of the present day YCV. The reconstructed topography of the OCV shows that it could have been a symmetric cone, reaching a maximum elevation of similar to 4100 m.a.s.l. with a lack volume of similar to 3.5 km(3). Based on this scenario, the deposit originated from the OCV main collapse should have a volume >3-3.5 km(3) in accordance to the volume calculated for the studied DAD. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Climate and environmental changes since the Last Glacial Maximum in the tropical zone of West Africa are usually inferred from marine and continental records. In this study, the potential of carbonate pedo-sedimentary geosystems, i.e. Vertisol relics, to record paleoenvironmental changes in the southwestern part of Chad Basin are investigated. A multi-dating approach was applied on different pedogenic organo-mineral constituents. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating was performed on the soil K-rich feldspars and was combined with radiocarbon dating on both the inorganic (C-14(inorg)) and organic carbon (C-14(org)) soil fractions. Three main pedo-sedimentary processes were assessed over the last 20 ka BP: 1) the soil parent material deposition, from 18 ka to 12 ka BP (OSL), 2) the soil organic matter integration, from 11 cal ka to 8 cal ka BP (C-14(org)), and 3) the pedogenic carbonate nodule precipitation, from 7 cal ka to 5 cal ka BP (C-14(inorg)). These processes correlate well with the Chad Basin stratigraphy and West African records and are shown to be related to significant changes in the soil water balance responding to the evolution of continental hydrology during the Late Quaternary. The last phase affecting the Vertisol relics is the increase of erosion, which is hypothesized to be due to a decrease of the vegetation cover triggered by (i) the onset of drier conditions, possibly strengthened by (ii) anthropogenic pressure. Archaeological data from Far North Cameroon and northern Nigeria, as well as sedimentation times in Lake Tilla (northeastern Nigeria), were used to test these relationships. The increase of erosion is suggested to possibly occur between c. 3 cal ka and 1 cal ka BP. Finally, satellite images revealed similar geosystems all along the Sudano-Sahelian belt, and initial C-14(inorg) ages of the samples collected in four sites gave similar ages to those reported in this study. Consequently, the carbonate pedo-sedimentary geosystems are valuable continental paleoenvironmental archives and soil water balance proxies of the semiarid tropics of West Africa. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Quantitative estimates of sea-level rise in the Mediterranean Basin become increasingly accurate thanks to detailed satellite monitoring. However, such measuring campaigns cover several years to decades, while longer-term sea-level records are rare for the Mediterranean. We used a data archeological approach to reanalyze monthly mean sea-level data of the Antalya-I (1935–1977) tide gauge to fill this gap. We checked the accuracy and reliability of these data before merging them with the more recent records of the Antalya-II (1985–2009) tide gauge, accounting for an eight-year hiatus. We obtain a composite time series of monthly and annual mean sea levels spanning some 75 years, providing the longest record for the eastern Mediterranean Basin, and thus an essential tool for studying the region's recent sea-level trends. We estimate a relative mean sea-level rise of 2.2 ± 0.5 mm/year between 1935 and 2008, with an annual variability (expressed here as the standard deviation of the residuals, σresiduals = 41.4 mm) above that at the closest tide gauges (e.g., Thessaloniki, Greece, σresiduals = 29.0 mm). Relative sea-level rise accelerated to 6.0 ± 1.5 mm/year at Antalya-II; we attribute roughly half of this rate (~3.6 mm/year) to tectonic crustal motion and anthropogenic land subsidence. Our study highlights the value of data archeology for recovering and integrating historic tide gauge data for long-term sea-level and climate studies.
A submerged pine forest from the early Holocene in the Mecklenburg Lake District, northern Germany
(2018)
For the first time, evidence of a submerged pine forest from the early Holocene can be documented in a central European lake. Subaquatic tree stumps were discovered in Lake Giesenschlagsee at a depth of between 2 and 5m using scuba divers, side-scan sonar and a remotely operated vehicle. Several erect stumps, anchored to the ground by roots, represent an insitu record of this former forest. Botanical determination revealed the stumps to be Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) with an individual tree age of about 80years. The trees could not be dated by means of dendrochronology, as they are older than the regional reference chronology for pine. Radiocarbon ages from the wood range from 10880 +/- 210 to 10370 +/- 130cal. a BP, which is equivalent to the mid-Preboreal to early Boreal biozones. The trees are rooted in sedge peat, which can be dated to this period as well, using pollen stratigraphical analysis. Tilting of the peat bed by 4m indicates subsidence of the ground due to local dead ice melting, causing the trees to become submerged and preserved for millennia. Together with recently detected Lateglacial insitu tree occurrences in nearby lakes, the submerged pine forest at Giesenschlagsee represents a new and highly promising type of geo-bio-archive for the wider region. Comparable insitu pine remnants occur at some terrestrial (buried setting) and marine (submerged setting) sites in northern central Europe and beyond, but they partly differ in age. In general, the insitu pine finds document shifts of the zonal boreal forest ecosystem during the late Quaternary.
The potential link between erosion rates at the Earth’s surface and changes in global climate has intrigued geoscientists for decades1,2 because such a coupling has implications for the influence of silicate weathering3,4 and organic-carbon burial5 on climate and for the role of Quaternary glaciations in landscape evolution1,6. A global increase in late-Cenozoic erosion rates in response to a cooling, more variable climate has been proposed on the basis of worldwide sedimentation rates7. Other studies have indicated, however, that global erosion rates may have remained steady, suggesting that the reported increases in sediment-accumulation rates are due to preservation biases, depositional hiatuses and varying measurement intervals8,9,10. More recently, a global compilation of thermochronology data has been used to infer a nearly twofold increase in the erosion rate in mountainous landscapes over late-Cenozoic times6. It has been contended that this result is free of the biases that affect sedimentary records11, although others have argued that it contains biases related to how thermochronological data are averaged12 and to erosion hiatuses in glaciated landscapes13. Here we investigate the 30 locations with reported accelerated erosion during the late Cenozoic6. Our analysis shows that in 23 of these locations, the reported increases are a result of a spatial correlation bias—that is, combining data with disparate exhumation histories, thereby converting spatial erosion-rate variations into temporal increases. In four locations, the increases can be explained by changes in tectonic boundary conditions. In three cases, climatically induced accelerations are recorded, driven by localized glacial valley incision. Our findings suggest that thermochronology data currently have insufficient resolution to assess whether late-Cenozoic climate change affected erosion rates on a global scale. We suggest that a synthesis of local findings that include location-specific information may help to further investigate drivers of global erosion rates.
Towards an understanding of climate proxy formation in the Chew Bahir basin, southern Ethiopian Rift
(2018)
Deciphering paleoclimate from lake sediments is a challenge due to the complex relationship between climate parameters and sediment composition. Here we show the links between potassium (K) concentrations in the sediments of the Chew Bahir basin in the Southern Ethiopian Rift and fluctuations in the catchment precipitation/evaporation balance. Our micro-X-ray fluorescence and X-ray diffraction results suggest that the most likely process linking climate with potassium concentrations is the authigenic illitization of smectites during episodes of higher alkalinity and salinity in the closed -basin lake, due to a drier climate. Whole-rock and clay size fraction analyses suggest that illitization of the Chew Bahir clay minerals with increasing evaporation is enhanced by octahedral Al-to-Mg substitution in the clay minerals, with the resulting layer charge increase facilitating potassium-fixation. Linking mineralogy with geochemistry shows the links between hydroclimatic control, process and formation of the Chew Bahir K patterns, in the context of well-known and widely documented eastern African climate fluctuations over the last 45,000 years. These results indicate characteristic mineral alteration patterns associated with orbitally controlled wet-dry cycles such as the African Humid Period (similar to 15-5 ka) or high-latitude controlled climate events such as the Younger Dryas (similar to 12.8-11.6 ka) chronozone. Determining the impact of authigenic mineral alteration on the Chew Bahir records enables the interpretation of the previously established pXRF-derived aridity proxy K and provides a better paleohydrological understanding of complex climate proxy formation.
The flash-flood in Braunsbach in the north-eastern part of Baden-Wuerttemberg/Germany was a particularly strong and concise event which took place during the floods in southern Germany at the end of May/early June 2016. This article presents a detailed analysis of the hydro-meteorological forcing and the hydrological consequences of this event. A specific approach, the "forensic hydrological analysis" was followed in order to include and combine retrospectively a variety of data from different disciplines. Such an approach investigates the origins, mechanisms and course of such natural events if possible in a "near real time" mode, in order to follow the most recent traces of the event. The results show that it was a very rare rainfall event with extreme intensities which, in combination with catchment properties, led to extreme runoff plus severe geomorphological hazards, i.e. great debris flows, which together resulted in immense damage in this small rural town Braunsbach. It was definitely a record-breaking event and greatly exceeded existing design guidelines for extreme flood discharge for this region, i.e. by a factor of about 10. Being such a rare or even unique event, it is not reliably feasible to put it into a crisp probabilistic context. However, one can conclude that a return period clearly above 100 years can be assigned for all event components: rainfall, peak discharge and sediment transport. Due to the complex and interacting processes, no single flood cause or reason for the very high damage can be identified, since only the interplay and the cascading characteristics of those led to such an event. The roles of different human activities on the origin and/or intensification of such an extreme event are finally discussed. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Here we present high-resolution delta O-18 records obtained from speleothems collected in the eastern Bolivian Andes. The stable isotope records are related to the regional- to large-scale atmospheric circulation over South America and allow interpreting changes in delta O-18 during the last 1400 yr as a function of changes in precipitation regimes over the southern tropical Andes. Two distinct phases with more negative delta O-18 values, interpreted as periods of increased convective activity over the eastern Andean Cordillera in Bolivia are observed concomitantly with periods of global climate anomalies during the last millennium, such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) respectively. Changes in the Bolivian delta O-18 record during the LIA are apparently related to a southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which acts as a main moisture driver to intensify convection over the tropical continent. During the MCA, however, the increased convective activity observed in the Bolivian record is likely the result of a different mechanism, which implies moisture sourced mainly from the southern tropical Atlantic. This interpretation is consistent with paleoclimate records further to the north in the tropical Andes that show progressively drier conditions during this time period, indicating a more northerly position of the ITCZ. The transition period between the MCA and the LIA shows a slight tendency toward increased delta O-18 values, indicating weakened convective activity. Our results also reveal a non-stationary anti-phased behavior between the delta O-18 reconstructions from Bolivia and northeastern Brazil that confirms a continental-scale east-west teleconnection across South America during the LIA.