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Protection motivation theory (PMT) has become a popular theory to explain the risk-reducing behavior of residents against natural hazards. PMT captures the two main cognitive processes that individuals undergo when faced with a threat, namely, threat appraisal and coping appraisal. The latter describes the evaluation of possible response measures that may reduce or avert the perceived threat. Although the coping appraisal component of PMT was found to be a better predictor of protective intentions and behavior, little is known about the factors that influence individuals’ coping appraisals of natural hazards. More insight into flood-coping appraisals of PMT, therefore, are needed to better understand the decision-making process of individuals and to develop effective risk communication strategies. This study presents the results of two surveys among more than 1,600 flood-prone households in Germany and France. Five hypotheses were tested using multivariate statistics regarding factors related to flood-coping appraisals, which were derived from the PMT framework, related literature, and the literature on social vulnerability. We found that socioeconomic characteristics alone are not sufficient to explain flood-coping appraisals. Particularly, observational learning from the social environment, such as friends and neighbors, is positively related to flood-coping appraisals. This suggests that social norms and networks play an important role in flood-preparedness decisions. Providing risk and coping information can also have a positive effect. Given the strong positive influence of the social environment on flood-coping appraisals, future research should investigate how risk communication can be enhanced by making use of the observed social norms and network effects.
After a comprehensive geophysical prospecting the Quaternary MA 1/2 tina Maar, located on a line between the two Quaternary scoria cones Komorni could be revealed by a scientific drilling at the German-Czech border in 2007. Further geophysical field investigations led to the discovery of another geological structure about 2.5 km ESE of the small town Neualbenreuth (NE-Bavaria, Germany), inferred to be also a maar structure, being the fourth volcanic feature aligned along the NW-SE trending Tachov fault zone. It is only faintly indicated as a partial circular rim in the digital elevation model. Though not expressed by a clear magnetic anomaly, geoelectric and refraction seismic tomography strongly indicates a bowl-shaped depression filled with low-resistivity and low-velocity material, correlating well with the well-defined negative gravity anomaly of - 2.5 mGal. Below ca. 15 m-thick debris layer, successions of mostly laminated sediments were recovered in a 100 m-long sediment core in 2015. Sections of finely laminated layers, likely varves, rich in organic matter and tree pollen, were recognized in the upper (22-30 m) and lower (70-86 m) part of the core, respectively, interpreted as interglacials, whereas mostly minerogenic laminated deposits, poor in organic matter, and (almost) barren of tree pollen are interpreted as clastic glacial deposits. According to a preliminary age model based on magnetostratigraphy, palynology, radiocarbon dating, and cyclostratigraphy, the recovered sediments span the time window from about 85 ka back to about 270 ka, covering marine isotope stages 5-8. Sedimentation rates are in the range of 10 cm ka(-1) in interglacials and up to 100 cm ka(-1) in glacial phases. The stratigraphic record resembles the one from MA 1/2 tina Maar, with its eruption date being derived from a nearby tephra deposit at 288 +/- 17 ka, thus supporting the age model of the inferred Neualbenreuth Maar.
To safeguard the sustainable use of ecosystems and their services, early detection of potentially damaging changes in functional capabilities is needed. To support a proper ecosystem management, the analysis of an ecosystem’s vulnerability provide information on its weaknesses as well as on its capacity to recover after suffering an impact. However, the application of the vulnerability concept to ecosystems is still an emerging topic. After providing background on the vulnerability concept, we summarize existing ecosystem vulnerability research on the basis of a systematic literature review with a special focus on ecosystem type, disciplinary background, and more detailed definition of the ecosystem vulnerability components. Using the Web of ScienceTM Core Collection, we overviewed the literature from 1991 onwards but used the 5 years from 2011 to 2015 for an in-depth analysis, including 129 articles. We found that ecosystem vulnerability analysis has been applied most notably in conservation biology, climate change research, and ecological risk assessments, pinpointing a limited spreading across the environmental sciences. It occurred primarily within marine and freshwater ecosystems. To avoid confusion, we recommend using the unambiguous term ecosystem vulnerability rather than ecological, environmental, population, or community vulnerability. Further, common ground has been identified, on which to define the ecosystem vulnerability components exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We propose a framework for ecosystem assessments that coherently connects the concepts of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptability as different ecosystem responses. A short outlook on the possible operationalization of the concept by ecosystem vulnerabilty indices, and a conclusion section complete the review.
The use of chironomids (Diptera: Chironomidae) as indicators of changes in natural and climatic settings allows one to reconstruct paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental conditions. Based on the results of lithological and chironomid analyses, the loss on ignition (LOI) values, as well as the results of radiocarbon dating (C-14 AMS), new data on the paleoclimate in the Karelian Isthmus, in particular the quantitative reconstruction of the mean July temperature (T (July), A degrees C) in the Late Pleistocene and Holocene and the evolution of the ecosystem of Medvedevskoe Lake have been obtained.
Quantifying the pace of ice-sheet growth is critical to understanding ice-age climate and dynamics. Here, we show that the diversion of the Hudson River (northeastern North America) late in the last glaciation phase (ca. 30 ka), which some previous studies have speculated was due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), can be used to infer the timing of the Laurentide Ice Sheet’s growth to its maximum extent. Landscapes in the vicinity of glaciated regions have likely responded to crustal deformation produced by ice-sheet growth and decay through river drainage reorganization, given that rates of uplift and subsidence are on the order of tens of meters per thousand years. We perform global, gravitationally self-consistent simulations of GIA and input the predicted crustal deformation field into a landscape evolution model. Our calculations indicate that the eastward diversion of the Hudson River at 30 ka is consistent with exceptionally rapid growth of the Laurentide Ice Sheet late in the glaciation phase, beginning at 50–35 ka.
Landslide hazard motivates the need for a deeper understanding of the events that occur before, during, and after catastrophic slope failures. Due to the destructive nature of such events, in situ observation is often difficult or impossible. Here, we use data from a network of 58 seismic stations to characterise a large landslide at the Askja caldera, Iceland, on 21 July 2014. High data quality and extensive network coverage allow us to analyse both long- and short-period signals associated with the landslide, and thereby obtain information about its triggering, initiation, timing, and propagation. At long periods, a landslide force history inversion shows that the Askja landslide was a single, large event starting at the SE corner of the caldera lake at 23:24:05 UTC and propagating to the NW in the following 2 min The bulk sliding mass was 7-16 x 10(10) kg, equivalent to a collapsed volume of 35-80 x 10(6) m(3). The sliding mass was displaced downslope by 1260 +/- 250 m. At short periods, a seismic tremor was observed for 30 min before the landslide. The tremor is approximately harmonic with a fundamental frequency of 2.3 Hz and shows time-dependent changes of its frequency content. We attribute the seismic tremor to stick-slip motion along the landslide failure plane. Accelerating motion leading up to the catastrophic slope failure culminated in an aseismic quiescent period for 2 min before the landslide. We propose that precursory seismic signals may be useful in landslide early-warning systems. The 8 h after the main landslide failure are characterised by smaller slope failures originating from the destabilised caldera wall decaying in frequency and magnitude. We introduce the term "afterslides" for this subsequent, declining slope activity after a large landslide.
A comprehensive hydro-sedimentological dataset for the Isabena catchment, northeastern (NE) Spain, for the period 2010-2018 is presented to analyse water and sediment fluxes in a Mediterranean mesoscale catchment. The dataset includes rainfall data from 12 rain gauges distributed within the study area complemented by meteorological data of 12 official meteo-stations. It comprises discharge data derived from water stage measurements as well as suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs) at six gauging stations of the River Isabena and its sub-catchments. Soil spectroscopic data from 351 suspended sediment samples and 152 soil samples were collected to characterize sediment source regions and sediment properties via fingerprinting analyses. The Isabena catchment (445 km(2)) is located in the southern central Pyrenees ranging from 450 m to 2720 m a.s.l.; together with a pronounced topography, this leads to distinct temperature and precipitation gradients. The River Isabena shows marked discharge variations and high sediment yields causing severe siltation problems in the downstream Barasona Reservoir. The main sediment source is badland areas located on Eocene marls that are well connected to the river network. The dataset features a comprehensive set of variables in a high spatial and temporal resolution suitable for the advanced process understanding of water and sediment fluxes, their origin and connectivity and sediment budgeting and for the evaluation and further development of hydro-sedimentological models in Mediterranean mesoscale mountainous catchments.
For over a century, geomorphologists have attempted to unravel information about landscape evolution, and processes that drive it, using river profiles. Many studies have combined new topographic datasets with theoretical models of channel incision to infer erosion rates, identify rock types with different resistance to erosion, and detect potential regions of tectonic activity. The most common metric used to analyse river profile geometry is channel steepness, or k(s). However, the calculation of channel steepness requires the normalisation of channel gradient by drainage area. This normalisation requires a power law exponent that is referred to as the channel concavity index. Despite the concavity index being crucial in determining channel steepness, it is challenging to constrain. In this contribution, we compare both slope-area methods for calculating the concavity index and methods based on integrating drainage area along the length of the channel, using so-called "chi" (chi) analysis. We present a new chi-based method which directly compares chi values of tributary nodes to those on the main stem; this method allows us to constrain the concavity index in transient landscapes without assuming a linear relationship between chi and elevation. Patterns of the concavity index have been linked to the ratio of the area and slope exponents of the stream power incision model (m/n); we therefore construct simple numerical models obeying detachment-limited stream power and test the different methods against simulations with imposed m and n. We find that chi-based methods are better than slope-area methods at reproducing imposed m/n ratios when our numerical landscapes are subject to either transient uplift or spatially varying uplift and fluvial erodibility. We also test our methods on several real landscapes, including sites with both lithological and structural heterogeneity, to provide examples of the methods' performance and limitations. These methods are made available in a new software package so that other workers can explore how the concavity index varies across diverse landscapes, with the aim to improve our understanding of the physics behind bedrock channel incision.
The impact of reservoir heterogeneities on High-Temperature aquifer thermal energy storage systems
(2018)
We conducted a geoscientific feasibility study for the development of a high-temperature thermal aquifer energy storage system (HT-ATES) outside the capital of Muscat, northern Oman. The aquifer storage is part of a solar geothermal cooling project for the sustainable and continuous cooling of office buildings. The main concept is that excess solar energy will be stored in the subsurface through hot water injection and subsequently utilised as auxiliary energy source during peak demand times. The characterisation of aquifer heterogeneities is thus essential to predict subsurface thermal heat plume development and recovery efficiency of the storage system. We considered two aquifer systems as potential storage horizons, (i) a clastic-dominated alluvial fan system where individual channel systems in combination with diagenetic alterations constitute the main heterogeneities and (ii) a carbonate-dominated system represented by a homogenous layer-cake architecture. The feasibility study included a multidisciplinary approach from initial field work, geocellular reservoir modelling to finite element fluid flow and thermal modelling. Our results show that for the HT-ATES system, with a high frequency of injection and production cycles, heat loss mainly occurs due to heterogeneities in the permeability field of the aquifer in combination with buoyancy driven vertical fluid flow. An impermeable cap-rock is needed to keep the heat plume in place. Conductive heat loss is a minor issue. Highly complex heat plume geometries are apparent in the clastic channel system and ATES well planning is challenging due to the complex and interconnected high permeable channels. The carbonate sequence shows uniform plume geometries due to the layer cake architecture of the system and is tentatively more suitable for ATES development. Based on our findings we propose the general concept of HT-ATES traps, incorporating and building on expertise and knowledge from petroleum and reservoir geology regarding reservoir rocks and suitable trap&seal geometries. The concept can be used as guideline for future high-temperature aquifer storage exploration and development.
With increasing amount of strong motion data, Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) developers are able to quantify empirical site amplification functions (delta S2S(s)) from GMPE residuals, for use in site-specific Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment. In this study, we first derive a GMPE for 5% damped Pseudo Spectral Acceleration (g) of Active Shallow Crustal earthquakes in Japan with 3.4 <= M-w <= 7.3 and 0 <= R-JB <= 600km. Using k-mean spectral clustering technique, we then classify our estimated delta S2S(s)(T = 0.01 - 2s) of 588 wellcharacterized sites, into 8 site clusters with distinct mean site amplification functions, and within-cluster site-tosite variability similar to 50% smaller than the overall dataset variability (phi(S2S)). Following an evaluation of existing schemes, we propose a revised data-driven site classification characterized by kernel density distributions of V-s30, V-s10, H-800, and predominant period (T-G) of the site clusters.
It is well-known that prey species often face trade-offs between defense against predation and competitiveness, enabling predator-mediated coexistence. However, we lack an understanding of how the large variety of different defense traits with different competition costs affects coexistence and population dynamics. Our study focusses on two general defense mechanisms, that is, pre-attack (e.g., camouflage) and post-attack defenses (e.g., weaponry) that act at different phases of the predator—prey interaction. We consider a food web model with one predator, two prey types and one resource. One prey type is undefended, while the other one is pre- or post-attack defended paying costs either by a higher half-saturation constant for resource uptake or a lower maximum growth rate. We show that post-attack defenses promote prey coexistence and stabilize the population dynamics more strongly than pre-attack defenses by interfering with the predator's functional response: Because the predator spends time handling “noncrackable” prey, the undefended prey is indirectly facilitated. A high half-saturation constant as defense costs promotes coexistence more and stabilizes the dynamics less than a low maximum growth rate. The former imposes high costs at low resource concentrations but allows for temporally high growth rates at predator-induced resource peaks preventing the extinction of the defended prey. We evaluate the effects of the different defense mechanisms and costs on coexistence under different enrichment levels in order to vary the importance of bottom-up and top-down control of the prey community.
The literature contains a sizable number of publications where weather types are used to decompose climate shifts or trends into contributions of frequency and mean of those types. They are all based on the product rule, that is, a transformation of a product of sums into a sum of products, the latter providing the decomposition. While there is nothing to argue about the transformation itself, its interpretation as a climate shift or trend decomposition is bound to fail. While the case of a climate shift may be viewed as an incomplete description of a more complex behaviour, trend decomposition indeed produces bogus trends, as demonstrated by a synthetic counterexample with well-defined trends in type frequency and mean. Consequently, decompositions based on that transformation, be it for climate shifts or trends, must not be used.
In areas characterized by many volcanoes, identifying the source of a deposit may not be trivial. This becomes much more complicated when looking for the source of a debris avalanche deposit (DAD), the common products of catastrophic volcanic edifice collapses. To overcome this problem, in this work a methodology is proposed based on the integration of texture features and areal distribution of the deposit, comparison between the petrography of the coarser clasts within the DAD and of the proximal products, grain-size analysis, and the volumetric estimations of the deposit and the volume missing from the volcanic edifice. This methodology has been tested to a DAD occurred near the city of Ibarra (Imbabura Province; Northern Ecuador), having a controversial source. Two main volcanic edifice are located in proximity of the DAD, the Cubilche volcano (3826 m.a.s.l.), located immediately south of and east of the colossal dormant Imbabura volcano. The former displays a sharp horseshoe shaped scar towards the north and inside this post-collapse edifice, that we name old Cubilche volcano (OCV), is located the young Cubilche volcano (YCV) that refilled a portion of the collapse scar and partially covered the southern flank of the OCV. Detailed knowledge of Cubilche volcano is critical because of its close proximity and interspersed activity with Imbabura volcano. In fact, Imbabura most recent edifice was built over the northwestern slope of the OCV and partially covered it. Recent studies linked the studied DAD to both Imbabura volcano as a product of its northern sector collapse, as well as neighboring Cubilche volcano. Our data points to Cubilche as the most likely source for this DAD. A perspective view of the shaded relief image of the present day OCV shows that the morphology of the volcano is well-preserved on its southern, eastern, and western flanks. This allows us to reconstruct the morphology of the OCV previous to the collapse through interpolation of elevation and altitude data of preserved flanks. A DEM of the present day topography was used for extrapolating the morphology. Using similar methodology, the post collapse base of the amphitheater was reconstructed by removing the relief of the present day YCV. The reconstructed topography of the OCV shows that it could have been a symmetric cone, reaching a maximum elevation of similar to 4100 m.a.s.l. with a lack volume of similar to 3.5 km(3). Based on this scenario, the deposit originated from the OCV main collapse should have a volume >3-3.5 km(3) in accordance to the volume calculated for the studied DAD. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Climate and environmental changes since the Last Glacial Maximum in the tropical zone of West Africa are usually inferred from marine and continental records. In this study, the potential of carbonate pedo-sedimentary geosystems, i.e. Vertisol relics, to record paleoenvironmental changes in the southwestern part of Chad Basin are investigated. A multi-dating approach was applied on different pedogenic organo-mineral constituents. Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating was performed on the soil K-rich feldspars and was combined with radiocarbon dating on both the inorganic (C-14(inorg)) and organic carbon (C-14(org)) soil fractions. Three main pedo-sedimentary processes were assessed over the last 20 ka BP: 1) the soil parent material deposition, from 18 ka to 12 ka BP (OSL), 2) the soil organic matter integration, from 11 cal ka to 8 cal ka BP (C-14(org)), and 3) the pedogenic carbonate nodule precipitation, from 7 cal ka to 5 cal ka BP (C-14(inorg)). These processes correlate well with the Chad Basin stratigraphy and West African records and are shown to be related to significant changes in the soil water balance responding to the evolution of continental hydrology during the Late Quaternary. The last phase affecting the Vertisol relics is the increase of erosion, which is hypothesized to be due to a decrease of the vegetation cover triggered by (i) the onset of drier conditions, possibly strengthened by (ii) anthropogenic pressure. Archaeological data from Far North Cameroon and northern Nigeria, as well as sedimentation times in Lake Tilla (northeastern Nigeria), were used to test these relationships. The increase of erosion is suggested to possibly occur between c. 3 cal ka and 1 cal ka BP. Finally, satellite images revealed similar geosystems all along the Sudano-Sahelian belt, and initial C-14(inorg) ages of the samples collected in four sites gave similar ages to those reported in this study. Consequently, the carbonate pedo-sedimentary geosystems are valuable continental paleoenvironmental archives and soil water balance proxies of the semiarid tropics of West Africa. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Quantitative estimates of sea-level rise in the Mediterranean Basin become increasingly accurate thanks to detailed satellite monitoring. However, such measuring campaigns cover several years to decades, while longer-term sea-level records are rare for the Mediterranean. We used a data archeological approach to reanalyze monthly mean sea-level data of the Antalya-I (1935–1977) tide gauge to fill this gap. We checked the accuracy and reliability of these data before merging them with the more recent records of the Antalya-II (1985–2009) tide gauge, accounting for an eight-year hiatus. We obtain a composite time series of monthly and annual mean sea levels spanning some 75 years, providing the longest record for the eastern Mediterranean Basin, and thus an essential tool for studying the region's recent sea-level trends. We estimate a relative mean sea-level rise of 2.2 ± 0.5 mm/year between 1935 and 2008, with an annual variability (expressed here as the standard deviation of the residuals, σresiduals = 41.4 mm) above that at the closest tide gauges (e.g., Thessaloniki, Greece, σresiduals = 29.0 mm). Relative sea-level rise accelerated to 6.0 ± 1.5 mm/year at Antalya-II; we attribute roughly half of this rate (~3.6 mm/year) to tectonic crustal motion and anthropogenic land subsidence. Our study highlights the value of data archeology for recovering and integrating historic tide gauge data for long-term sea-level and climate studies.
A submerged pine forest from the early Holocene in the Mecklenburg Lake District, northern Germany
(2018)
For the first time, evidence of a submerged pine forest from the early Holocene can be documented in a central European lake. Subaquatic tree stumps were discovered in Lake Giesenschlagsee at a depth of between 2 and 5m using scuba divers, side-scan sonar and a remotely operated vehicle. Several erect stumps, anchored to the ground by roots, represent an insitu record of this former forest. Botanical determination revealed the stumps to be Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) with an individual tree age of about 80years. The trees could not be dated by means of dendrochronology, as they are older than the regional reference chronology for pine. Radiocarbon ages from the wood range from 10880 +/- 210 to 10370 +/- 130cal. a BP, which is equivalent to the mid-Preboreal to early Boreal biozones. The trees are rooted in sedge peat, which can be dated to this period as well, using pollen stratigraphical analysis. Tilting of the peat bed by 4m indicates subsidence of the ground due to local dead ice melting, causing the trees to become submerged and preserved for millennia. Together with recently detected Lateglacial insitu tree occurrences in nearby lakes, the submerged pine forest at Giesenschlagsee represents a new and highly promising type of geo-bio-archive for the wider region. Comparable insitu pine remnants occur at some terrestrial (buried setting) and marine (submerged setting) sites in northern central Europe and beyond, but they partly differ in age. In general, the insitu pine finds document shifts of the zonal boreal forest ecosystem during the late Quaternary.
The potential link between erosion rates at the Earth’s surface and changes in global climate has intrigued geoscientists for decades1,2 because such a coupling has implications for the influence of silicate weathering3,4 and organic-carbon burial5 on climate and for the role of Quaternary glaciations in landscape evolution1,6. A global increase in late-Cenozoic erosion rates in response to a cooling, more variable climate has been proposed on the basis of worldwide sedimentation rates7. Other studies have indicated, however, that global erosion rates may have remained steady, suggesting that the reported increases in sediment-accumulation rates are due to preservation biases, depositional hiatuses and varying measurement intervals8,9,10. More recently, a global compilation of thermochronology data has been used to infer a nearly twofold increase in the erosion rate in mountainous landscapes over late-Cenozoic times6. It has been contended that this result is free of the biases that affect sedimentary records11, although others have argued that it contains biases related to how thermochronological data are averaged12 and to erosion hiatuses in glaciated landscapes13. Here we investigate the 30 locations with reported accelerated erosion during the late Cenozoic6. Our analysis shows that in 23 of these locations, the reported increases are a result of a spatial correlation bias—that is, combining data with disparate exhumation histories, thereby converting spatial erosion-rate variations into temporal increases. In four locations, the increases can be explained by changes in tectonic boundary conditions. In three cases, climatically induced accelerations are recorded, driven by localized glacial valley incision. Our findings suggest that thermochronology data currently have insufficient resolution to assess whether late-Cenozoic climate change affected erosion rates on a global scale. We suggest that a synthesis of local findings that include location-specific information may help to further investigate drivers of global erosion rates.
Towards an understanding of climate proxy formation in the Chew Bahir basin, southern Ethiopian Rift
(2018)
Deciphering paleoclimate from lake sediments is a challenge due to the complex relationship between climate parameters and sediment composition. Here we show the links between potassium (K) concentrations in the sediments of the Chew Bahir basin in the Southern Ethiopian Rift and fluctuations in the catchment precipitation/evaporation balance. Our micro-X-ray fluorescence and X-ray diffraction results suggest that the most likely process linking climate with potassium concentrations is the authigenic illitization of smectites during episodes of higher alkalinity and salinity in the closed -basin lake, due to a drier climate. Whole-rock and clay size fraction analyses suggest that illitization of the Chew Bahir clay minerals with increasing evaporation is enhanced by octahedral Al-to-Mg substitution in the clay minerals, with the resulting layer charge increase facilitating potassium-fixation. Linking mineralogy with geochemistry shows the links between hydroclimatic control, process and formation of the Chew Bahir K patterns, in the context of well-known and widely documented eastern African climate fluctuations over the last 45,000 years. These results indicate characteristic mineral alteration patterns associated with orbitally controlled wet-dry cycles such as the African Humid Period (similar to 15-5 ka) or high-latitude controlled climate events such as the Younger Dryas (similar to 12.8-11.6 ka) chronozone. Determining the impact of authigenic mineral alteration on the Chew Bahir records enables the interpretation of the previously established pXRF-derived aridity proxy K and provides a better paleohydrological understanding of complex climate proxy formation.
The flash-flood in Braunsbach in the north-eastern part of Baden-Wuerttemberg/Germany was a particularly strong and concise event which took place during the floods in southern Germany at the end of May/early June 2016. This article presents a detailed analysis of the hydro-meteorological forcing and the hydrological consequences of this event. A specific approach, the "forensic hydrological analysis" was followed in order to include and combine retrospectively a variety of data from different disciplines. Such an approach investigates the origins, mechanisms and course of such natural events if possible in a "near real time" mode, in order to follow the most recent traces of the event. The results show that it was a very rare rainfall event with extreme intensities which, in combination with catchment properties, led to extreme runoff plus severe geomorphological hazards, i.e. great debris flows, which together resulted in immense damage in this small rural town Braunsbach. It was definitely a record-breaking event and greatly exceeded existing design guidelines for extreme flood discharge for this region, i.e. by a factor of about 10. Being such a rare or even unique event, it is not reliably feasible to put it into a crisp probabilistic context. However, one can conclude that a return period clearly above 100 years can be assigned for all event components: rainfall, peak discharge and sediment transport. Due to the complex and interacting processes, no single flood cause or reason for the very high damage can be identified, since only the interplay and the cascading characteristics of those led to such an event. The roles of different human activities on the origin and/or intensification of such an extreme event are finally discussed. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Here we present high-resolution delta O-18 records obtained from speleothems collected in the eastern Bolivian Andes. The stable isotope records are related to the regional- to large-scale atmospheric circulation over South America and allow interpreting changes in delta O-18 during the last 1400 yr as a function of changes in precipitation regimes over the southern tropical Andes. Two distinct phases with more negative delta O-18 values, interpreted as periods of increased convective activity over the eastern Andean Cordillera in Bolivia are observed concomitantly with periods of global climate anomalies during the last millennium, such as the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) respectively. Changes in the Bolivian delta O-18 record during the LIA are apparently related to a southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which acts as a main moisture driver to intensify convection over the tropical continent. During the MCA, however, the increased convective activity observed in the Bolivian record is likely the result of a different mechanism, which implies moisture sourced mainly from the southern tropical Atlantic. This interpretation is consistent with paleoclimate records further to the north in the tropical Andes that show progressively drier conditions during this time period, indicating a more northerly position of the ITCZ. The transition period between the MCA and the LIA shows a slight tendency toward increased delta O-18 values, indicating weakened convective activity. Our results also reveal a non-stationary anti-phased behavior between the delta O-18 reconstructions from Bolivia and northeastern Brazil that confirms a continental-scale east-west teleconnection across South America during the LIA.
A comprehensive understanding of the regional vegetation responses to long-term climate change will help to forecast Earth system dynamics. Based on a new well-dated pollen data set from Kanas Lake and a review on the published pollen records in and around the Altai Mountains, the regional vegetation dynamics and forcing mechanisms are discussed. In the Altai Mountains, the forest optimum occurred during 10-7ka for the upper forest zone and the tree line decline and/or ecological shifts were caused by climatic cooling from around 7ka. In the lower forest zone, the forest reached an optimum in the middle Holocene, and then increased openness of the forest, possibly caused by both climate cooling and human activities, took place in the late Holocene. In the lower basins or plains around the Altai Mountains, the development of protograssland or forest benefited from increasing humidity in the middle to late Holocene. Plain Language Summary In the Altai Mountains and surrounding area of central Asia, the previous studies of the Holocene paleovegetation and paleoclimate studies did not discuss the different ecological limiting factors for the vegetation in high mountains and low-elevation areas due to limited data. With accumulating fossil pollen data and surface pollen data, it is possible to understand better the geomorphological effect on the vegetation and discrepancies of vegetation/forest responses to large-scale climate forcing, and it is also possible to get reliable quantitative reconstructions of climate. Here our new pollen data and review on the published fossil pollen data will help us to look into the past climate change and vertical evolution of vegetation in this important area of the Northern Hemisphere. Based on our study, it can be concluded that the growth of taiga forest in the wetter areas may be promoted under a future warmer climate, while the forest in the relatively dry areas is liable to decline, and the different vegetation dynamics will contribute to future high-resolution coupled vegetation-climate model for Earth system modelling.
The impressive number of stream gauges in Chile, combined with a suite of past and recent large earthquakes, makes Chile a unique natural laboratory to study several streams that recorded responses to multiple seismic events. We document changes in discharge in eight streams in Chile following two or more large earthquakes. In all cases, discharge increases. Changes in discharge occur for peak ground velocities greater than about 7-11cm/s. Above that threshold, the magnitude of both the increase in discharge and the total excess water do not increase with increasing peak ground velocities. While these observations are consistent with previous work in California, they conflict with lab experiments that show that the magnitude of permeability changes increases with increasing amplitude of ground motion. Instead, our study suggests that streamflow responses are binary. Plain Language Summary Earthquakes deform and shake the surface and the ground below. These changes may affect groundwater flows by increasing the permeability along newly formed cracks and/or clearing clogged pores. As a result, groundwater flow may substantially increase after earthquakes and remain elevated for several months. Here we document streamflow anomalies following multiple high magnitude earthquakes in multiple streams in one of the most earthquake prone regions worldwide, Chile. We take advantage of the dense monitoring network in Chile that recorded streamflow since the 1940s. We show that once a critical ground motion is exceeded, streamflow responses to earthquakes can be expected.
Nitraria is a halophytic taxon (i.e., adapted to saline environments) that belongs to the plant family Nitrariaceae and is distributed from the Mediterranean, across Asia into the south-eastern tip of Australia. This taxon is thought to have originated in Asia during the Paleogene (66-23 Ma), alongside the proto-Paratethys epicontinental sea. The evolutionary history of Nitraria might hold important clues on the links between climatic and biotic evolution but limited taxonomic documentation of this taxon has thus far hindered this line of research. Here we investigate if the pollen morphology and the chemical composition of the pollen wall are informative of the evolutionary history of Nitraria and could explain if origination along the proto-Paratethys and dispersal to the Tibetan Plateau was simultaneous or a secondary process. To answer these questions, we applied a novel approach consisting of a combination of Fourier Transform Infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), to determine the chemical composition of the pollen wall, and pollen morphological analyses using Light Microscopy (LM) and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM). We analysed our data using ordinations (principal components analysis and non-metric multidimensional scaling), and directly mapped it on the Nitrariaceae phylogeny to produce a phylomorphospace and a phylochemospace. Our LM, SEM and FTIR analyses show clear morphological and chemical differences between the sister groups Peganum and Nitraria. Differences in the morphological and chemical characteristics of highland species (Nitraria schoberi, N. sphaerocarpa, N. sibirica and N. tangutorum) and lowland species (Nitraria billardierei and N. retusa) are very subtle, with phylogenetic history appearing to be a more important control on Nitraria pollen than local environmental conditions. Our approach shows a compelling consistency between the chemical and morphological characteristics of the eight studied Nitrariaceae species, and these traits are in agreement with the phylogenetic tree. Taken together, this demonstrates how novel methods for studying fossil pollen can facilitate the evolutionary investigation of living and extinct taxa, and the environments they represent.
Relative abundances of 157 diatom taxa from Yakutian lake surface-sediments were investigated for their potential to indicate certain environmental conditions. Data from 206 sites from Arctic, sub-Arctic and boreal environments were included. Redundancy analyses were performed to assess the explanatory power of mean July temperature (T-July), conductivity, pH, dissolved silica concentration, phosphate concentration, lake depth and vegetation type on diatom species composition. Boosted regression tree analyses were performed to infer the most relevant environmental variables for abundances of individual taxa and weighted average regression was applied to infer their respective optimum and tolerance. Electrical conductivity was best indicated by diatom taxa. In contrast, only few taxa were indicative of Si and water depth. Few taxa were related to specific pH values. Although T-July, explained the highest proportion of variance in the diatom spectra and was, after conductivity, the second-most selected splitting variable, we a priori decided not to present indicator taxa because of the poorly understood relationship between diatom occurrences and T-July. In total, 92 diatom taxa were reliable indicators of a certain vegetation type or a combination of several types. The high numbers of indicative species for open vegetation sites and for forested sites suggest that the principal turnover is the transition from forest-tundra to northern taiga. Overall, our results reveal that preference ranges of diatom taxa for environmental variables are mostly broad, and the use of indicator taxa for the purposes of environmental reconstruction or environmental monitoring is therefore restricted to marked rather than subtle environmental transitions.
Some like it hot
(2018)
Accumulating evidence has demonstrated considerable impact of climate change on biodiversity, with terrestrial ectotherms being particularly vulnerable. While climate-induced range shifts are often addressed in the literature, little is known about the underlying ecological responses at individual and population levels. Using a 30-yr monitoring study of the long-living nocturnal gecko Gehyra variegata in arid Australia, we determined the relative contribution of climatic factors acting locally (temperature, rainfall) or distantly (La Nina induced flooding) on ecological processes ranging from traits at the individual level (body condition, body growth) to the demography at population level (survival, sexual maturity, population sizes). We also investigated whether thermoregulatory activity during both active (night) and resting (daytime) periods of the day can explain these responses. Gehyra variegata responded to local and distant climatic effects. Both high temperatures and high water availability enhanced individual and demographic parameters. Moreover, the impact of water availability was scale independent as local rainfall and La Nina induced flooding compensated each other. When water availability was low, however, extremely high temperatures delayed body growth and sexual maturity while survival of individuals and population sizes remained stable. This suggests a trade-off with traits at the individual level that may potentially buffer the consequences of adverse climatic conditions at the population level. Moreover, hot temperatures did not impact nocturnal nor diurnal behavior. Instead, only cool temperatures induced diurnal thermoregulatory behavior with individuals moving to exposed hollow branches and even outside tree hollows for sun-basking during the day. Since diurnal behavioral thermoregulation likely induced costs on fitness, this could decrease performance at both individual and population level under cool temperatures. Our findings show that water availability rather than high temperature is the limiting factor in our focal population of G.variegata. In contrast to previous studies, we stress that drier rather than warmer conditions are expected to be detrimental for nocturnal desert reptiles. Identifying the actual limiting climatic factors at different scales and their functional interactions at different ecological levels is critical to be able to predict reliably future population dynamics and support conservation planning in arid ecosystems.
Ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are calibrated to predict the intensity of ground shaking at any given location, based on earthquake magnitude, source‐to‐site distance, local soil amplifications, and other parameters. GMPEs are generally assumed to be independent of time; however, evidence is increasing that large earthquakes modify the shallow soil conditions and those of the fault zone for months or years. These changes may affect the intensity of shaking and result in time‐dependent effects that can potentially be resolved by analyzing between‐event residuals (residuals between observed and predicted ground motion for individual earthquakes averaged over all stations). Here, we analyze a data set of about 65,000 recordings for about 1400 earthquakes in the moment magnitude range 2.5–6.5 that occurred in central Italy from 2008 to 2017 to capture the temporal variability of the ground shaking at high frequency. We first compute between‐event residuals for each earthquake in the Fourier domain with respect to a GMPE developed ad hoc for the analyzed data set. The between‐events show large changes after the occurrence of mainshocks such as the 2009 Mw 6.3 L'Aquila, the 2016 Mw 6.2 Amatrice, and Mw 6.5 Norcia earthquakes. Within the time span of a few months after the mainshocks, the between‐event contribution to the ground shaking varies by a factor 7. In particular, we find a large drop in the between‐events in the aftermath of the L'Aquila earthquake, followed by a slow positive trend that leads to a recovery interrupted by a new drop at the beginning of 2014. We also quantify the frequency‐dependent correlation between the Brune stress drop Δσ and the between‐events. We find that the temporal changes of Δσ resemble those of the between‐event residuals; in particular, during the period when the between‐events show the positive trend, the average logarithm of Δσ increases with an annual rate of 0.19 (i.e., the amplification factor for Δσ is 1.56 per year). Breakpoint analysis located a change in the linear trend coefficients of Δσ versus time in February 2014, although no large earthquakes occurred at that time. Finally, the temporal variability of Δσ mirrors the relative seismic‐velocity variations observed in previous studies for the same area and period, suggesting that both crack healing along the main fault system and healing of microcracks distributed at shallow depths throughout the surrounding region might be necessary to explain the wider observations of postearthquake recovery.
The Sesia zone in the Italian Western Alps is a piece of continental crust that has been subducted to eclogite-facies conditions and records a complex metamorphic history. The exact timing of events and the significance of geochronological information are debated due to the interplay of tectonic, metamorphic, and metasomatic processes. Here we present new geochronological data using Rb-Sr internal mineral isochrons and in situ Ar-40/Ar-39 laser ablation data to provide constraints on the relative importance of fluid-mediated mineral replacement reactions and diffusion for the interpretation of radiogenic isotope signatures, and on the use of these isotopic systems for dating metamorphic and variably deformed rocks. Our study focuses on the shear zone at the contact between two major lithological units of the Sesia zone, the eclogitic micaschists and the gneiss minuti. Metasedimentary rocks of the eclogitic micaschists unit contain phengite with step-like zoning in major element chemistry as evidence for petrologic disequilibrium. Distinct Ar-40/Ar-39 spot ages of relict phengite cores and over-printed rims demonstrate the preservation of individual age domains in the crystals. The eclogitic micaschists also show systematic Sr isotope disequilibria among different phengite populations, so that minimum ages of relict assemblage crystallization can be differentiated from the timing of late increments of deformation. The preservation of these disequilibrium features shows the lack of diffusive re-equilibration and underpins that fluid-assisted dissolution and recrystallization reactions are the main factors controlling the isotope record in these subduction-related metamorphic rocks. Blueschist-facies mylonites record deformation along the major shear zone that separates the eclogitic micaschists from the gneiss minuti. Two Rb-Sr isochrones that comprise several white mica fractions and glaucophane constrain the timing of this deformation and accompanying near-complete blueschist-facies re-equilibration of the Rb-Sr system to 60.1 +/- 0.9 Ma and 60.9 +/- 2.1 Ma, respectively. Overlapping ages in eclogitic micaschists of 60.1 +/- 1.1 (Rb-Sr isochron of sheared matrix assemblage), 58.6 +/- 0.8, and 60.9 +/- 0.4 Ma (white mica Ar-40/Ar-39 inverse isochron ages) support the significance of this age and show that fluid-rock interaction and partial re-equilibration occurred as much as several kilometers away from the shear zone. An earlier equilibration during high-pressure conditions in the eclogitic mica schists is recorded in minimum Rb-Sr ages for relict assemblages (77.2 +/- 0.8 and 72.4 +/- 1.1 Ma) and an Ar-40/Ar-39 inverse isochron age of 75.4 +/- 0.8 Ma for white mica cores, again demonstrating that the two isotope systems provide mutually supporting geochronological information. Local reactivation and recrystallization along the shear zone lasted >15 m.y., as late increments of deformation are recorded in a greenschist-facies mylonite by a Rb-Sr isochron age of 46.5 +/- 0.7 Ma.
How information about sediment transport processes is transmitted to the sedimentary record remains a complex problem for the interpretation of fluvial stratigraphy. Alluvial fan deposits represent the condensed archive of sediment transport, which is at least partly controlled by tectonics and climate. For three coupled catchment-fan systems in northern Death Valley, California, we measure grain size across 12 well-preserved Holocene and late-Pleistocene surfaces, mapped in detail from field observations and remote sensing. Our results show that fan surfaces correlated to the late Pleistocene are, on average, 30-50% coarser than active or Holocene fan surfaces. We adopt a self-similar form of grain size distribution based on the observed stability of the ratio between mean grain size and standard deviation downstream. Using statistical analysis, we show that fan surface grain size distributions are self-similar. We derive a relative mobility function using our self-similar grain size distributions, which describes the relative probability of a given grain size being transported. We show that the largest mobile grain sizes are between 20 and 35mm, a value that varies over time and is clearly lower in the Holocene than in the Pleistocene; a change we suggest is due to a drier climate in the Holocene. These results support recent findings that alluvial fan sedimentology can record past environmental change and that these landscapes are potentially sensitive to climatic change over a glacial-interglacial cycle. We demonstrate that the self-similarity methodology offers a means to explore changes in relative mobility of grain sizes from preserved fluvial deposits. Plain Language Summary A key challenge in Earth Science is understanding how landscapes respond to climate. It may be possible to observe measurable differences in certain landscapes settings such as alluvial fans in desert regions. Alluvial fans are believed to be effective recorders of climate, representing a cumulative store of material transported downstream by rainfall-sensitive river systems. In northern Death Valley, California, we measure at high resolution grain size on three alluvial fans with surfaces that date from the Holocene and the arid climate of today to the 20-40% wetter late-Pleistocene epoch. We find that older late-Pleistocene surfaces are coarser on average than surfaces deposited during the modern and Holocene dry period, suggesting a changing sediment transport regime potentially in response to precipitation. We also show that measured grain size distributions within and between surfaces can be successfully normalized based on the decay in mean grain size and variance downstream, exhibiting a self-similar pattern. Finally, we employ a grain size relative mobility model using our field data to establish which grain sizes are likely to be in transport or locked in the substrate. This model predicts that during the wetter late-Pleistocene mobile grain sizes are up to 40% larger than during the Holocene.
To achieve the goal of keeping global warming well below 2 °C, private investors have to shift capital from brown to green infrastructures and technologies and provide additional green investment. In this paper, we present a game-theoretic perspective on the challenge of triggering such investments. The question of climate change mitigation is often related to the prisoner's dilemma, a game with one Nash equilibrium. However, the authors perceive investment for mitigation and adaptation as a coordination problem of selecting among multiple equilibria. To illustrate this, we model a non-cooperative coordination game, related to the stag hunt, with a brown equilibrium with lower payoffs that can be achieved single-handedly and a green equilibrium with higher payoffs that requires coordination. As multiple experiments show, in such games actors often fail to coordinate on a payoff dominant equilibrium due to uncertainty. Thus, we discuss how uncertainty could be reduced along two options: one that concerns a change in the payoff structure of the game and another that concerns subjective probabilities.
Despite remarkable tectonostratigraphic similarities along the Himalayan arc, pronounced topographic and exhumational variability exists in different morphotectonic segments. The processes responsible for this segmentation are debated. Of particular interest is a 30- to 40-km-wide orogen-parallel belt of rapid exhumation that extends from central Nepal to the western Himalaya and its possible linkage to a midcrustal ramp in the basal decollement, and the related growth of Lesser Himalayan duplex structures. Here we present 26 new apatite fission track cooling ages from the Beas-Lahul region, at the transition from the Central to the Western Himalaya (77 degrees-78 degrees E) to investigate segmentation in the Himalayan arc from a thermochronologic perspective. Together with previously published data from this part of the orogen, we document significant lateral changes in exhumation between the Dhauladar Range to the west, the Beas-Lahul region, and the Sutlej area to the east of the study area. In contrast to the Himalayan front farther east, exhumation in the far western sectors is focused at the frontal parts of the mountain range and associated with the hanging wall of the Main Boundary Thrust fault ramp. Our results allow us to spatially correlate the termination of the rapid exhumation belt with a midcrustal ramp to the west. We suggest that a plunging anticline at the northwestern edge of the Larji-Kullu-Rampur window represents the termination of the Central Himalayan segment, which is related to the evolution of the Lesser Himalayan duplex. Key Points
An essential, respected, and critical aspect of the modern practice of science and scientific publishing is peer review. The process of peer review facilitates best practices in scientific conduct and communication, ensuring that manuscripts published as accurate, valuable, and clearly communicated. The over 152 papers published in Tectonics in 2017 benefit from the time, effort, and expertise of our reviewers who have provided thoughtfully considered advice on each manuscript. This role is critical to advancing our understanding of the evolution of the continents and their margins, as these reviews lead to even clearer and higher-quality papers. In 2017, the over 423 papers submitted to Tectonics were the beneficiaries of more than 786 reviews provided by 562 members of the tectonics community and related disciplines. To everyone who has volunteered their time and intellect to peer reviewing, thank you for helping Tectonics and all other AGU Publications provide the best science possible.
We investigate the source characteristics of picoseismicity (M-w < -2) recorded during a hydraulic fracturing in situ experiment performed in the underground Aspo Hard Rock Laboratory, Sweden. The experiment consisted of six stimulations driven by three different water injection schemes and was performed inside a 28-m-long, horizontal borehole located at 410-m depth. The fracturing processes were monitored with a variety of seismic networks including broadband seismometers, geophones, high-frequency accelerometers, and acoustic emission sensors thereby covering a wide frequency band between 0.01 and 100,000Hz. Here we study the high-frequency signals with dominant frequencies exceeding 1000 Hz. The combined seismic network allowed for detection and detailed analysis of 196 small-scale seismic events with moment magnitudes M-W < -3.5 (source sizes of decimeter scale) that occurred solely during the stimulations and shortly after. The double-difference relocated hypocenter catalog as well as source parameters were used to study the physical characteristics of the induced seismicity and then compared to the stimulation parameters. We observe a spatiotemporal migration of the picoseismic events away and toward the injection intervals in direct correlation with changes in the hydraulic energy (product of fluid injection pressure and injection rate). We find that the total radiated seismic energy is extremely low with respect to the product of injected fluid volume and pressure (hydraulic energy). The radiated seismic energy correlates well with the hydraulic energy rate. The obtained fault plane solutions for particularly well-characterized events signify the reactivation of preexisting rock defects under influence of increased pore fluid pressure on fault plane orientations in good correspondence with the local stress field orientation.
The central Andes
(2018)
The Central Andes and the Atacama Desert represent a unique geological, climatic, and magmatic setting on our planet. It is the only place on Earth where subduction of an oceanic plate below an active continental margin has led to an extensive mountain chain and an orogenic plateau that is second in size only to the Tibetan Plateau, which resulted from continental collision. In this article, we introduce the history of the Central Andes and the evolution of its landscape. We also discuss links between tectonic forces, magmatism, and the extreme hyperarid climate of this land that, in turn, has led to rich deposits of precious ores and minerals.
Crop yield variations are strongly influenced by the spatial and temporal availabilities of water and nitrogen in the soil during the crop growth season. To estimate the quantities and distributions of water and nitrogen within a given soil, process-oriented soil models have often been used. These models require detailed information about the soil characteristics and profile architecture (e.g., soil depth, clay content, bulk density, field capacity and wilting point), but high resolution information about these soil properties, both vertically and laterally, is difficult to obtain through conventional approaches. However, on-the-go electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) measurements of the soil and data inversion tools have recently improved the lateral resolutions of the vertically distributed measurable information. Using these techniques, nearly 19,000 virtual soil profiles with defined layer depths were successfully created for a 30 ha silty cropped soil over loamy and sandy substrates in Central Germany, which were used to initialise the CArbon and Nitrogen DYnamics (CANDY) model. The soil clay content was derived from the electrical resistivity (ER) and the collected soil samples using a simple linear regression approach (the mean R-2 of clay = 0.39). The additional required structural and hydrological properties were derived from pedotransfer functions. The modelling results, derived soil texture distributions and original ER data were compared with the spatial winter wheat yield distribution in a relatively dry year using regression and boundary line analysis. The yield variation was best explained by the simulated soil water content (R-2 = 0.18) during the grain filling and was additionally validated by the measured soil water content with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 7.5 Vol%.
Quantifying the roles of single stations within homogeneous regions using complex network analysis
(2018)
Regionalization and pooling stations to form homogeneous regions or communities are essential for reliable parameter transfer, prediction in ungauged basins, and estimation of missing information. Over the years, several clustering methods have been proposed for regional analysis. Most of these methods are able to quantify the study region in terms of homogeneity but fail to provide microscopic information about the interaction between communities, as well as about each station within the communities. We propose a complex network-based approach to extract this valuable information and demonstrate the potential of our approach using a rainfall network constructed from the Indian gridded daily precipitation data. The communities were identified using the network-theoretical community detection algorithm for maximizing the modularity. Further, the grid points (nodes) were classified into universal roles according to their pattern of within- and between-community connections. The method thus yields zoomed-in details of individual rainfall grids within each community.
Following the widespread assumption that a majority of ubiquitous marine microplastic particles originate from land-based sources, recent studies identify rivers as important pathways for microplastic particles (MPP) to the oceans. Yet a detailed understanding of the underlying processes and dominant sources is difficult to obtain with the existing accurate but extremely time-consuming methods available for the identification of MPP. Thus in the presented study, a novel approach applying short-wave infrared imaging spectroscopy for the quick and semi-automated identification of MPP is applied in combination with a multitemporal survey concept. Volume-reduced surface water samples were taken from transects at ten points along a major watercourse running through the South of Berlin, Germany, on six dates. After laboratory treatment, the samples were filtered onto glass fiber filters, scanned with an imaging spectrometer and analyzed by image processing. The presented method allows to count MPP, classify the plastic types and determine particle sizes. At the present stage of development particles larger than 450 m in diameter can be identified and a visual validation showed that the results are reliable after a subsequent visual final check of certain typical error types. Therefore, the method has the potential to accelerate microplastic identification by complementing FTIR and Raman microspectroscopy. Technical advancements (e.g. new lens) will allow lower detection limits and a higher grade of automatization in the near future. The resulting microplastic concentrations in the water samples are discussed in a spatio-temporal context with respect to the influence (i) of urban areas, (ii) of effluents of three major Berlin wastewater treatment plants discharging into the canal and (iii) of precipitation events. Microplastic concentrations were higher downstream of the urban area and after precipitation. An increase in microplastic concentrations was discernible for the wastewater treatment plant located furthest upstream though not for the other two. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Changes in topography on Earth, particularly the growth of major mountain belts like the Central Andes, have a fundamental impact on regional and global atmospheric circulation patterns. These patterns, in turn, affect processes such as precipitation, erosion, and sedimentation. Over the last two decades, various geochemical, geomorphologic, and geologic approaches have helped identify when, where, and how quickly topography has risen in the past. The current spatio-temporal picture of Central Andean growth is now providing insight into which deep-Earth processes have left their imprint on the shape of the Earth's surface.
Natural thermoluminescence (TL) in rocks reflects a dynamic equilibrium between radiation-induced TL growth and decay via thermal and athermal pathways. When rocks exhume through Earth's crust and cool from high to low temperature, this equilibrium level increases as the temperature dependent thermal decay decreases. This phenomenon can be exploited to extract thermal histories of rocks. The main advantage of TL is that a single TL glow curve has a wide range of thermal stabilities (lifetime <ka to Ba), and hence can provide multiple constraints on thermal histories. Here we constrain the distribution of kinetic parameters of TL in feldspar using a glow curve deconvolution method and fitting infinitesimal sub-peaks using a general order kinetic model. Each peak corresponds to a different but closely located energy level E. Forward modeling is applied for different time-temperature histories to estimate the sensitivity and limitation of each signal for different cooling rates. The results show that it is possible to constrain thermal histories between ∼30 °C and ∼80 °C. The results also illustrate that shallower traps, i.e. with lower activation energies, can be exploited to constrain lower cooling histories >100 °C/Ma, whereas deeper traps, i.e. with higher activation energies, provide constraints on thermal histories for higher cooling rates (>300 °C/Ma). Finally, we show how the path of rock exhumation (i.e., depth vs. time) can be constrained using an inverse approach. The newly developed methodology is applied to rapidly cooled samples from the Namche Barwa massif, eastern Himalaya to suggest a trend in exhumation rate with time that follows an inverse correlation with global temperature and glaciers equilibrium altitude line (ELA).
One main challenge in constructing a reliable recurrence plot (RP) and, hence, its quantification [recurrence quantification analysis (RQA)] of a continuous dynamical system is the induced noise that is commonly found in observation time series. This induced noise is known to cause disrupted and deviated diagonal lines despite the known deterministic features and, hence, biases the diagonal line based RQA measures and can lead to misleading conclusions. Although discontinuous lines can be further connected by increasing the recurrence threshold, such an approach triggers thick lines in the plot. However, thick lines also influence the RQA measures by artificially increasing the number of diagonals and the length of vertical lines [e.g., Determinism (DET) and Laminarity (LAM) become artificially higher]. To take on this challenge, an extended RQA approach for accounting disrupted and deviated diagonal lines is proposed. The approach uses the concept of a sliding diagonal window with minimal window size that tolerates the mentioned deviated lines and also considers a specified minimal lag between points as connected. This is meant to derive a similar determinism indicator for noisy signal where conventional RQA fails to capture. Additionally, an extended local minima approach to construct RP is also proposed to further reduce artificial block structures and vertical lines that potentially increase the associated RQA like LAM. The methodology and applicability of the extended local minima approach and DET equivalent measure are presented and discussed, respectively.
The appropriate selection of recurrence thresholds is a key problem in applications of recurrence quantification analysis and related methods across disciplines. Here, we discuss the distribution of pairwise distances between state vectors in the studied system’s state space reconstructed by means of time-delay embedding as the key characteristic that should guide the corresponding choice for obtaining an adequate resolution of a recurrence plot. Specifically, we present an empirical description of the distance distribution, focusing on characteristic changes of its shape with increasing embedding dimension. Our results suggest that selecting the recurrence threshold according to a fixed percentile of this distribution reduces the dependence of recurrence characteristics on the embedding dimension in comparison with other commonly used threshold selection methods. Numerical investigations on some paradigmatic model systems with time-dependent parameters support these empirical findings.
Recurrence plots (RPs) provide an intuitive tool for visualizing the (potentially multi-dimensional) trajectory of a dynamical system in state space. In case only univariate observations of the system’s overall state are available, time-delay embedding has become a standard procedure for qualitatively reconstructing the dynamics in state space. The selection of a threshold distance 𝜀
, which distinguishes close from distant pairs of (reconstructed) state vectors, is known to have a substantial impact on the recurrence plot and its quantitative characteristics, but its corresponding interplay with the embedding dimension has not yet been explicitly addressed. Here, we point out that the results of recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) and related methods are qualitatively robust under changes of the (sufficiently high) embedding dimension only if the full distribution of pairwise distances between state vectors is considered for selecting 𝜀, which is achieved by consideration of a fixed recurrence rate.
The precise determination of the stable C and O isotope fractionation between water and calcite (CC) and water and aragonite (AR) is of special interest for climate reconstructions, e.g. paleotemperatures. Previous studies reported results from both laboratory and field experiments, but their results are only partly consistent. Here we present C and O isotope data of a stalagmite from the Swiss Alps, which shows CC-AR transitions along individual growth layers. Using detailed analyses both laterally and perpendicular to such layers we examined the difference in the C and O isotope fractionation factor of the HCO3- - CC and the HCO3- - AR system. For O this difference is similar to the water-CC and water-AR offset provided in experimental studies. The O isotope fractionation difference in the water-CC and water-AR system is comparable to those determined in laboratory studies but shows a statistically significant correlation with the CaCO3 precipitation rate. For C we found a fractionation difference, which is independent of CaCO3 precipitation rate and with slightly smaller values for the fractionation offset between HCO3- - CC and HCO3- - AR compared to literature values. However, we also found an unexpected decrease in delta C-13 along growth layers, which contradicts the widely used concept of Rayleigh fractionation during CO2 degassing and CaCO3 precipitation. The results of this study can be used e.g., to correct stable isotope time series of stalagmites showing CC-AR transitions along their growth axes. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Quaternary glaciations have repeatedly shaped large tracts of the Andean foreland. Its spectacular large glacial lakes, staircases of moraine ridges, and extensive outwash plains have inspired generations of scientists to reconstruct the processes, magnitude, and timing of ice build-up and decay at the mountain front. Surprisingly few of these studies noticed many dozens of giant (≥108 m3) mass-wasting deposits in the foreland. We report some of the world's largest terrestrial landslides in the eastern piedmont of the Patagonian Ice Sheet (PIS) along the traces of the former Lago Buenos Aires and Lago Puyerredón glacier lobes and lakes. More than 283 large rotational slides and lateral spreads followed by debris slides, earthflows, rotational and translational rockslides, complex slides and few large rock avalanches detached some 164 ± 56 km3 of material from the slopes of volcanic mesetas, lake-bounding moraines, and river-gorge walls. Many of these landslide deposits intersect with well-dated moraine ridges or former glacial-lake shorelines, and offer opportunities for relative dating of slope failure. We estimate that >60% of the landslide volume (∼96 km3) detached after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Giant slope failures cross-cutting shorelines of a large Late Glacial to Early Holocene lake (“glacial lake PIS”) likely occurred during successive lake-level drop between ∼11.5 and 8 ka, and some of them are the largest hitherto documented landslides in moraines. We conclude that 1) large portions of terminal moraines can fail catastrophically several thousand years after emplacement; 2) slopes formed by weak bedrock or unconsolidated glacial deposits bordering glacial lakes can release extremely large landslides; and 3) landslides still occur in the piedmont, particularly along postglacial gorges cut in response to falling lake levels.
Time series of groundwater and stream water quality often exhibit substantial temporal and spatial variability, whereas typical existing monitoring data sets, e.g. from environmental agencies, are usually characterized by relatively low sampling frequency and irregular sampling in space and/or time. This complicates the differentiation between anthropogenic influence and natural variability as well as the detection of changes in water quality which indicate changes in single drivers. We suggest the new term "dominant changes" for changes in multivariate water quality data which concern (1) multiple variables, (2) multiple sites and (3) long-term patterns and present an exploratory framework for the detection of such dominant changes in data sets with irregular sampling in space and time. Firstly, a non-linear dimension-reduction technique was used to summarize the dominant spatiotemporal dynamics in the multivariate water quality data set in a few components. Those were used to derive hypotheses on the dominant drivers influencing water quality. Secondly, different sampling sites were compared with respect to median component values. Thirdly, time series of the components at single sites were analysed for long-term patterns. We tested the approach with a joint stream water and groundwater data set quality consisting of 1572 samples, each comprising sixteen variables, sampled with a spatially and temporally irregular sampling scheme at 29 sites in northeast Germany from 1998 to 2009. The first four components were interpreted as (1) an agriculturally induced enhancement of the natural background level of solute concentration, (2) a redox sequence from reducing conditions in deep groundwater to post-oxic conditions in shallow groundwater and oxic conditions in stream water, (3) a mixing ratio of deep and shallow groundwater to the streamflow and (4) sporadic events of slurry application in the agricultural practice. Dominant changes were observed for the first two components. The changing intensity of the first component was interpreted as response to the temporal variability of the thickness of the unsaturated zone. A steady increase in the second component at most stream water sites pointed towards progressing depletion of the denitrification capacity of the deep aquifer.
The selection of earthquake focal mechanisms (FMs) for stress tensor inversion (STI) is commonly done on a spatial basis, that is, hypocentres. However, this selection approach may include data that are undesired, for example, by mixing events that are caused by different stress tensors when for the STI a single stress tensor is assumed. Due to the significant increase of FM data in the past decades, objective data-driven data selection is feasible, allowing more refined FM catalogues that avoid these issues and provide data weights for the STI routines. We present the application of angular classification with expectation-maximization (ACE) as a tool for data selection. ACE identifies clusters of FM without a priori information. The identified clusters can be used for the classification of the style-of-faulting and as weights of the FM data. We demonstrate that ACE effectively selects data that can be associated with a single stress tensor. Two application examples are given for weighted STI from South America. We use the resulting clusters and weights as a priori information for an STI for these regions and show that uncertainties of the stress tensor estimates are reduced significantly.
The AlpArray seismic network
(2018)
The AlpArray programme is a multinational, European consortium to advance our understanding of orogenesis and its relationship to mantle dynamics, plate reorganizations, surface processes and seismic hazard in the Alps-Apennines-Carpathians-Dinarides orogenic system. The AlpArray Seismic Network has been deployed with contributions from 36 institutions from 11 countries to map physical properties of the lithosphere and asthenosphere in 3D and thus to obtain new, high-resolution geophysical images of structures from the surface down to the base of the mantle transition zone. With over 600 broadband stations operated for 2 years, this seismic experiment is one of the largest simultaneously operated seismological networks in the academic domain, employing hexagonal coverage with station spacing at less than 52 km. This dense and regularly spaced experiment is made possible by the coordinated coeval deployment of temporary stations from numerous national pools, including ocean-bottom seismometers, which were funded by different national agencies. They combine with permanent networks, which also required the cooperation of many different operators. Together these stations ultimately fill coverage gaps. Following a short overview of previous large-scale seismological experiments in the Alpine region, we here present the goals, construction, deployment, characteristics and data management of the AlpArray Seismic Network, which will provide data that is expected to be unprecedented in quality to image the complex Alpine mountains at depth.
Subduction zone magmas are more oxidised on eruption than those at mid-ocean ridges. This is attributed either to oxidising components, derived from subducted lithosphere (slab) and added to the mantle wedge, or to oxidation processes occurring during magma ascent via differentiation. Here we provide direct evidence for contributions of oxidising slab agents to melts trapped in the sub-arc mantle. Measurements of sulfur (S) valence state in sub-arc mantle peridotites identify sulfate, both as crystalline anhydrite (CaSO4) and dissolved SO42- in spinel-hosted glass (formerly melt) inclusions. Copper-rich sulfide precipitates in the inclusions and increased Fe3+/Sigma Fe in spinel record a S6+-Fe2+ redox coupling during melt percolation through the sub-arc mantle. Sulfate-rich glass inclusions exhibit high U/Th, Pb/Ce, Sr/Nd and delta S-34 (+ 7 to + 11%), indicating the involvement of dehydration products of serpentinised slab rocks in their parental melt sources. These observations provide a link between liberated slab components and oxidised arc magmas.
Great megathrust earthquakes arise from the sudden release of energy accumulated during centuries of interseismic plate convergence. The moment deficit (energy available for future earthquakes) is commonly inferred by integrating the rate of interseismic plate locking over the time since the previous great earthquake. But accurate integration requires knowledge of how interseismic plate locking changes decades after earthquakes, measurements not available for most great earthquakes. Here we reconstruct the post-earthquake history of plate locking at Guafo Island, above the seismogenic zone of the giant 1960 (M-w = 9.5) Chile earthquake, through forward modeling of land-level changes inferred from aerial imagery (since 1974) and measured by GPS (since 1994). We find that interseismic locking increased to similar to 70% in the decade following the 1960 earthquake and then gradually to 100% by 2005. Our findings illustrate the transient evolution of plate locking in Chile, and suggest a similarly complex evolution elsewhere, with implications for the time- and magnitude-dependent probability of future events.
Originally developed for use in the petroleum industry, Rock-Eval pyrolysis is a technique commonly applied to lake sediments to infer paleoenvironmental reconstructions. The standard Rock-Eval parameters provide information on the amount of total organic and inorganic carbon (TOC and MinC, respectively), and are usually interpreted as proxies for the source (aquatic or terrestrial) of the primary production of organic matter (Hydrogen Index vs Oxygen Index). Although this method usually provides valuable evidence, the common presence of siderite in tropical lake sediments can alter the primary signal of the sedimentary organic matter (SOM). Indeed, the CO2 and CO released by the pyrolysis of siderite are integral to the calculation of the SOM-related standard Rock-Eval parameters. In this study, we analyze sediments from a core collected in the Lake Barombi (southwest Cameroon) and describe the impact of siderite on standard Rock-Eval parameters. We propose a workflow that allows standard Rock-Eval parameters to be corrected, based on the analysis of thermograms. The proposed corrections provide siderite-effect-free parameters, accurately reflecting the changes in sedimentary organic matter composition. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) is a proteohormone regulating renal phosphate transport and vitamin D metabolism as well as inducing left heart hypertrophy. FGF23-deficient mice suffer from severe tissue calcification, accelerated aging and a myriad of aging-associated diseases. Bone cells produce FGF23 upon store-operated calcium ion entry (SOCE) through the calcium selective ion channel Orai1. AMP-activated kinase (AMPK) is a powerful energy sensor helping cells survive states of energy deficiency, and AMPK down-regulates Orai1. Here we investigated the role of AMPK in FGF23 production. Fgf23 gene transcription was analyzed by qRT-PCR and SOCE by fluorescence optics in UMR106 osteoblast-like cells while the serum FGF23 concentration and phosphate metabolism were assessed in AMPKa1-knockout and wild-type mice. The AMPK activator, 5-aminoimidazole-4-carboxamide ribonucleotide (AICAR) down-regulated, whereas the AMPK inhibitor, dorsomorphin dihydrochloride (compound C) and AMPK gene silencing induced Fgf23 transcription. AICAR decreased membrane abundance of Orai1 and SOCE. SOCE inhibitors lowered Fgf23 gene expression induced by AMPK inhibition. AMPKa1-knockout mice had a higher serum FGF23 concentration compared to wild-type mice. Thus, AMPK participates in the regulation of FGF23 production in vitro and in vivo. The inhibitory effect of AMPK on FGF23 production is at least in part mediated by Orai1-involving SOCE.
Abrupt or gradual?
(2018)
We used a change point analysis on a late Pleistocene-Holocene lake-sediment record from the Chew Bahir basin in the southern Ethiopian Rift to determine the amplitude and duration of past climate transitions. The most dramatic changes occurred over 240 yr (from similar to 15,700 to 15,460 yr) during the onset of the African Humid Period (AHP), and over 990 yr (from similar to 4875 to 3885 yr) during its protracted termination. The AHP was interrupted by a distinct dry period coinciding with the high-latitude Younger Dryas stadial, which had an abrupt onset (less than similar to 100 yr) at similar to 13,260 yr and lasted until similar to 11,730 yr. Wet-dry-wet transitions prior to the AHP may reflect the high-latitude Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles, as indicated by cross-correlation of the potassium record with the NorthGRIP ice core record between similar to 45-20 ka. These findings may contribute to the debates regarding the amplitude, and duration and mechanisms of past climate transitions, and their possible influence on the development of early modern human cultures.
Micropetrology
(2018)
Inclusions in minerals, whether fluids, melts or crystalline phases, are small pieces of the large-scale puzzle of Nature, time-consuming to investigate and often of difficult interpretation. Yet they are windows into the past of their host mineral. Mineral inclusions provide the opportunity to unravel the genesis of their host, and the increasingly refined understanding of their elastic behaviour provides the basis for alternative, equilibrium-independent geobarometry. Fluid and melt inclusions reveal information about material transfer in the Earth system, from shallow mineralization to mantle re-fertilization via subduction. The study of inclusions is thus one of the most intriguing and fertile branches of micropetrology. In this contribution, we focus on two recent developments: the use of elasticity models to extract the formation conditions of the host crystal, and the discovery and investigation of melt inclusions in metamorphic rocks. We also discuss how to evaluate the information provided by inclusions, given that they are no longer at the pressure and temperature conditions of entrapment. We discuss how to understand and quantify the changes undergone during cooling and depressurization, and how metastability-related phenomena in inclusions, such as crystallization of rare polymorphs and preservation of the original content of volatiles in fluid and melt inclusions, provide direct evidence that inclusions represent closed systems. The field of study of inclusions in minerals still has a largely untapped potential. The most fruitful avenues for future research will emerge from continuous technological innovation in analytical and imaging techniques, the application of experimental petrology, and the development and application of new theoretical models for coupled mineral behaviour under changing P-T conditions.
Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) is a promising proximal soil sensing technique to estimate soil moisture at intermediate scale and high temporal resolution. However, the signal shows complex and non-unique response to all hydrogen pools near the land surface, providing some challenges for soil moisture estimation in practical applications. Aims of the study were 1) to assess the uncertainty of CRNS as a stand-alone approach to estimate volumetric soil moisture in cropped field 2) to identify the causes of this uncertainty 3) and possible improvements. Two experimental sites in Germany were equipped with a CRNS probe and point-scale soil moisture network. Additional monitoring activities were conducted during the crop growing season to characterize the soil-plant systems. This data is used to identify and quantify the different sources of uncertainty (factors). An uncertainty analysis, based on Monte Carlo approach, is applied to propagate these uncertainties to CRNS soil moisture estimations. In addition, a sensitivity analysis based on the Sobol’ method is performed to identify the most important factors explaining this uncertainty. Results show that CRNS soil moisture compares well to the soil moisture network when these point-scale values are weighted to account for the spatial sensitivity of the signal and other sources of hydrogen (lattice water and organic carbon) are added to the water content. However, the performance decreases when CRNS is considered as a stand-alone method to retrieve the actual (non-weighted) volumetric soil moisture. The support volume (penetration depth and radius) shows also a considerable uncertainty, especially in relatively dry soil moisture conditions. Four of the seven factors analyzed (the vertical soil moisture profile, bulk density, incoming neutron correction and the calibrated parameter N0) were found to play an important role. Among the possible improvements identified, a simple correction factor based on vertical point-scale soil moisture profiles shows to be a promising approach to account for the sensitivity of the CRNS signal to the upper soil layers.
In near-surface geophysics, small portable loop-loop electro-magnetic induction (EMI) sensors using harmonic sources with a constant and rather small frequency are increasingly used to investigate the electrical properties of the subsurface. For such sensors, the influence of electrical conductivity and magnetic permeability on the EMI response is well-understood. Typically, data analysis focuses on reconstructing an electrical conductivity model by inverting the out-of-phase response. However, in a variety of near-surface applications, magnetic permeability (or susceptibility) models derived from the in-phase (IP) response may provide important additional information. In view of developing a fast 3D inversion procedure of the IP response for a dense grid of measurement points, we first analyze the 3D sensitivity functions associated with a homogeneous permeable half-space. Then, we compare synthetic data computed using a linear forward-modeling method based on these sensitivity functions with synthetic data computed using full nonlinear forward-modeling methods. The results indicate the correctness and applicability of our linear forward-modeling approach. Furthermore, we determine the advantages of converting IP data into apparent permeability, which, for example, allows us to extend the applicability of the linear forward-modeling method to high-magnetic environments. Finally, we compute synthetic data with the linear theory for a model consisting of a controlled magnetic target and compare the results with field data collected with a four-configuration loop-loop EMI sensor. With this field-scale experiment, we determine that our linear forward-modeling approach can reproduce measured data with sufficiently small error, and, thus, it represents the basis for developing efficient inversion approaches.
The Siwalik sedimentary rocks of the Himalayan foreland basin preserve a record of Himalayan orogenesis, paleo-drainage evolution, and erosion. This study focuses on the still poorly studied easternmost Himalaya Siwalik record located directly downstream of the Namche Barwa syntaxis. We use luminescence, palaeomagnetism, magnetostratigraphy, and apatite fission-track dating to constrain the depositional ages of three Siwalik sequences: the Sibo outcrop (Upper Siwalik sediments at ca. 200-800 ka), the Remi section (Middle and Upper Siwalik rocks at >0.8-<8.8 +/- 2.4 Ma), and the Siang section (Middle Siwalik rocks at <9.3 +/- 1.5 to <13.5 +/- 1.5 Ma). Cretaceous-Paleogene detrital zircon and apatite U-Pb ages, characteristic of the Transhimalayan Gangdese Batholiths that crop out northwest of the syntaxis, are present throughout the Sibo, Remi, and Siang successions, confirming the existence of a Yarlung-Brahmaputra connection since at least the Late Miocene. A ca. 500 Ma zircon population increases up section, most strikingly sometime between 3.6 to 6.6 Ma, at the expense of Transhimalayan grains. We consider the ca. 500 Ma population to be derived from the Tethyan or Greater Himalaya, and we interpret the up-section increase to reflect progressive exhumation of the Namche Barwa syntaxis. Early Cretaceous zircon and apatite U-Pb ages are rare in the Sibo, Remi, and Siang successions, but abundant in modern Siang River sediments. Zircons of this age range are characteristic of the Transhimalayan Bomi-Chayu batholiths, which crop out east of the syntaxis and are eroded by the Parlung River, a modern tributary of the Siang River. We interpret the difference in relative abundance of Early Cretaceous zircons between the modern and ancient sediments to reflect capture of the Parlung by the Siang after 800 ka.
Although hydrologic models provide hypothesis testing of complex dynamics occurring at catchments, fresh-water quality modeling is still incipient at many subtropical headwaters. In Brazil, a few modeling studies assess freshwater nutrients, limiting policies on hydrologic ecosystem services. This paper aims to compare freshwater quality scenarios under different land-use and land-cover (LULC) change, one of them related to ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA), in Brazilian headwaters. Using the spatially semi-distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, nitrate, total phosphorous (TP) and sediment were modeled in catchments ranging from 7.2 to 1037 km(2). These head-waters were eligible areas of the Brazilian payment for ecosystem services (PES) projects in the Cantareira water supply system, which had supplied water to 9 million people in the Sao Paulo metropolitan region (SPMR). We considered SWAT modeling of three LULC scenarios: (i) recent past scenario (S1), with historical LULC in 1990; (ii) current land-use scenario (S2), with LULC for the period 2010-2015 with field validation; and (iii) future land-use scenario with PES (S2 + EbA). This latter scenario proposed forest cover restoration through EbA following the river basin plan by 2035. These three LULC scenarios were tested with a selected record of rainfall and evapotranspiration observed in 2006-2014, with the occurrence of extreme droughts. To assess hydrologic services, we proposed the hydrologic service index (HSI), as a new composite metric comparing water pollution levels (WPL) for reference catchments, related to the grey water footprint (greyWF) and water yield. On the one hand, water quality simulations allowed for the regionalization of greyWF at spatial scales under LULC scenarios. According to the critical threshold, HSI identified areas as less or more sustainable catchments. On the other hand, conservation practices simulated through the S2 + EbA scenario envisaged not only additional and viable best management practices (BMP), but also preventive decision-making at the headwaters of water supply systems.
Evaluating climate geoengineering proposals in the context of the Paris Agreement temperature goals
(2018)
Current mitigation efforts and existing future commitments are inadequate to accomplish the Paris Agreement temperature goals. In light of this, research and debate are intensifying on the possibilities of additionally employing proposed climate geoengineering technologies, either through atmospheric carbon dioxide removal or farther-reaching interventions altering the Earth’s radiative energy budget. Although research indicates that several techniques may eventually have the physical potential to contribute to limiting climate change, all are in early stages of development, involve substantial uncertainties and risks, and raise ethical and governance dilemmas. Based on present knowledge, climate geoengineering techniques cannot be relied on to significantly contribute to meeting the Paris Agreement temperature goals.
The Red Indian Line (RIL) in central Newfoundland is the suture, where the main tract of the Iapetus Ocean was closed at similar to 452 Ma during accretion of the peri-Gondwanan Victoria arc with the composite active Laurentian margin. The protracted deformation history of this soft collision started at similar to 471 Ma with accretion of oceanic terranes to the active composite Laurentian margin. After Iapetus closure both colliding active margins were progressively deformed and metamorphosed during Silurian and Devonian (Salinic, Acadian and Neoacadian orogenic cycles). Peak conditions of the very low- to medium-grade, heterogeneously distributed metamorphism were determined by pseudosection techniques within the range of 2-7 kbar, 230-450 degrees C during increase of the metamorphic field gradient from similar to 12 degrees C/km to similar to 32 degrees C/km over time. Multiple metamorphic crystallisation stages were dated by white mica Ar-40/Ar-39 spot and plateau ages, additional Rb-Sr mineral isochrons involving white mica and one U/Pb age of titanite. All resulting ages between 439 +/- 4 Ma and 356 +/- 16 Ma postdate the closure of Iapetus. Results differ along two transects: The oldest ages of 443-421 Ma (Salinic orogenic cycle) were observed along the northern transect through the RIL zone with minimal younger overprint. Hence low temperature, intermediate to high pressure conditions (4.0-7.0 kbar, 230-340 degrees C) achieved during Taconic-Salinic underthrusting are well preserved. During Acadian dextral transpression the Taconic-Salinic structural wedge was tilted subvertically. In contrast, rocks along the southern transect through the RIL zone mainly show Acadian ages of 408-390 Ma with local preservation of older ages. Acadian deformation occurred under low temperature/low pressure conditions (similar to 250-450 degrees C, 2.5-4.6 kbar). Also Silurian terrestrial cover rocks were buried under these conditions. Acadian-Neoacadian deformation (393-340 Ma) becomes younger towards the northwest and progressively localized in transcurrent fault zones. This final foreland deformation at shallow crustal level established the Acadian/Neoacadian orogenic front in central Newfoundland slightly northwest of the RIL.
The SISAL database
(2018)
Stable isotope records from speleothems provide information on past climate changes, most particularly information that can be used to reconstruct past changes in precipitation and atmospheric circulation. These records are increasingly being used to provide "out-of-sample" evaluations of isotope-enabled climate models. SISAL (Speleothem Isotope Synthesis and Analysis) is an international working group of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) project. The working group aims to provide a comprehensive compilation of speleothem isotope records for climate reconstruction and model evaluation. The SISAL database contains data for individual speleothems, grouped by cave system. Stable isotopes of oxygen and carbon (delta O-18, delta C-13) measurements are referenced by distance from the top or bottom of the speleothem. Additional tables provide information on dating, including information on the dates used to construct the original age model and sufficient information to assess the quality of each data set and to erect a standardized chronology across different speleothems. The metadata table provides location information, information on the full range of measurements carried out on each speleothem and information on the cave system that is relevant to the interpretation of the records, as well as citations for both publications and archived data.
Both enstatite spectra are very bright in the VIS and NIR and show almost neutral to slightly bluish spectral slopes with a steep absorption in the UV. Very low iron in the enstatites (below similar to 0.04 wt% FeO) already results in weak albeit noticeable absorptions in the VNIR between 0.4 and 0.9 mu m. Orthoenstatite and clinoenstatite are not distinguishable based only on their spectra in the VIS and NIR. At the Reststrahlen bands in the MIR a systematic difference in the number and exact position of local minima at similar to 10 mu m between clinoenstatite and orthoenstatite is evident. This can be used to discern between the polymorphs in this wavelength range. Additionally, we can distinguish between Fe-free low- and high-Ca pyroxenes in the MIR.
Woodlands and steppes
(2018)
Based on fossil organism remains including plant macrofossils, charcoal, pollen, and invertebrates preserved in syngenetic deposits of the Batagay permafrost sequence in the Siberian Yana Highlands, we reconstructed the environmental history during marine isotope stages (MIS) 6 to 2. Two fossil assemblages, exceptionally rich in plant remains, allowed for a detailed description of the palaeo-vegetation during two climate extremes of the Late Pleistocene, the onset of the last glacial maximum (LGM) and the last interglacial. In addition, altogether 41 assemblages were used to outline the vegetation history since the penultimate cold stage of MIS 6. Accordingly, meadow steppes analogue to modern communities of the phytosociological order Festucetalia lenensis formed the primary vegetation during the Saalian and Weichselian cold stages. Cold-resistant tundra-steppe communities (Carici rupestris-Kobresietea bellardii) as they occur above the treeline today were, in contrast to more northern locations, mostly lacking. During the last interglacial, open coniferous woodland similar to modern larch taiga was the primary vegetation at the site. Abundant charcoal indicates wildfire events during the last interglacial. Zoogenic disturbances of the local vegetation were indicated by the presence of ruderal plants, especially by abundant Urtica dioica, suggesting that the area was an interglacial refugium for large herbivores. Meadow steppes, which formed the primary vegetation during cold stages and provided potentially suitable pastures for herbivores, were a significant constituent of the plant cover in the Yana Highlands also under the full warm stage conditions of the last interglacial. Consequently, meadow steppes occurred in the Yana Highlands during the entire investigated timespan from MIS 6 to MIS 2 documenting a remarkable environmental stability. Thus, the proportion of meadow steppe vegetation merely shifted in response to the respectively prevailing climatic conditions. Their persistence indicates low precipitation and a relatively warm growing season throughout and beyond the late Pleistocene. The studied fossil record also proves that modern steppe occurrences in the Yana Highlands did not establish as late as in the Holocene but instead are relicts of a formerly continuous steppe belt extending from Central Siberia to Northeast Yakutia during the Pleistocene. The persistence of plants and invertebrates characteristic of meadow steppe vegetation in interior Yakutia throughout the late Quaternary indicates climatic continuity and documents the suitability of this region as a refugium also for other organisms of the Pleistocene mammoth steppe including the iconic large herbivores. (C)2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Plain Language Summary The 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal caused severe losses in the hydropower sector. The country temporarily lost similar to 20% of its hydropower capacity, and >30 hydropower projects were damaged. The projects hit hardest were those that were affected by earthquake-triggered landslides. We show that these projects are located along very steep rivers with towering sidewalls that are prone to become unstable during strong seismic ground shaking. A statistical classification based on a topographic metric that expresses river steepness and earthquake ground acceleration is able to approximately predict hydropower damage during future earthquakes, based on successful testing of past cases. Thus, our model enables us to estimate earthquake damages to hydropower projects in other parts of the Himalayas. We find that >10% of the Himalayan drainage network may be unsuitable for hydropower infrastructure given high probabilities of high earthquake damages.
Nearly 13,000 years ago, the warming trend into the Holocene was sharply interrupted by a reversal to near glacial conditions. Climatic causes and ecological consequences of the Younger Dryas (YD) have been extensively studied, however proxy archives from the Mediterranean basin capturing this period are scarce and do not provide annual resolution. Here, we report a hydroclimatic reconstruction from stable isotopes (delta O-18, delta C-13) in subfossil pines from southern France. Growing before and during the transition period into the YD (12 900-12 600 cal BP), the trees provide an annually resolved, continuous sequence of atmospheric change. Isotopic signature of tree sourcewater (delta O-18(sw)) and estimates of relative air humidity were reconstructed as a proxy for variations in air mass origin and precipitation regime. We find a distinct increase in inter-annual variability of sourcewater isotopes (delta O-18(sw)), with three major downturn phases of increasing magnitude beginning at 12 740 cal BP. The observed variation most likely results from an amplified intensity of North Atlantic (low delta O-18(sw)) versus Mediterranean (high delta O-18(sw)) precipitation. This marked pattern of climate variability is not seen in records from higher latitudes and is likely a consequence of atmospheric circulation oscillations at the margin of the southward moving polar front.
More than 41% of the Earth’s land area is covered by permanent or seasonally arid dryland ecosystems. Global development and human activity have led to an increase in aridity, resulting in ecosystem degradation and desertification around the world. The objective of the present work was to investigate and compare the microbial community structure and geochemical characteristics of two geographically distinct saline pan sediments in the Kalahari Desert of southern Africa. Our data suggest that these microbial communities have been shaped by geochemical drivers, including water content, salinity, and the supply of organic matter. Using Illumina 16S rRNA gene sequencing, this study provides new insights into the diversity of bacteria and archaea in semi-arid, saline, and low-carbon environments. Many of the observed taxa are halophilic and adapted to water-limiting conditions. The analysis reveals a high relative abundance of halophilic archaea (primarily Halobacteria), and the bacterial diversity is marked by an abundance of Gemmatimonadetes and spore-forming Firmicutes. In the deeper, anoxic layers, candidate division MSBL1, and acetogenic bacteria (Acetothermia) are abundant. Together, the taxonomic information and geochemical data suggest that acetogenesis could be a prevalent form of metabolism in the deep layers of a saline pan.
Near-surface geophysical imaging of alluvial fan settings is a challenging task but crucial for understating geological processes in such settings. The alluvial fan of Ghor Al-Haditha at the southeast shore of the Dead Sea is strongly affected by localized subsidence and destructive sinkhole collapses, with a significantly increasing sinkhole formation rate since ca. 1983. A similar increase is observed also on the western shore of the Dead Sea, in correlation with an ongoing decline in the Dead Sea level. Since different structural models of the upper 50 m of the alluvial fan and varying hypothetical sinkhole processes have been suggested for the Ghor Al-Haditha area in the past, this study aimed to clarify the subsurface characteristics responsible for sinkhole development. For this purpose, high-frequency shear wave reflection vibratory seismic surveys were carried out in the Ghor Al-Haditha area along several crossing and parallel profiles with a total length of 1.8 and 2.1 km in 2013 and 2014, respectively. The sedimentary architecture of the alluvial fan at Ghor Al-Haditha is resolved down to a depth of nearly 200 m at a high resolution and is calibrated with the stratigraphic profiles of two boreholes located inside the survey area. The most surprising result of the survey is the absence of evidence of a thick (>2-10 m) compacted salt layer formerly suggested to lie at ca. 35-40 m depth. Instead, seismic reflection amplitudes and velocities image with good continuity a complex interlocking of alluvial fan deposits and lacustrine sediments of the Dead Sea between 0 and 200 m depth. Furthermore, the underground section of areas affected by sinkholes is characterized by highly scattering wave fields and reduced seismic interval velocities. We propose that the Dead Sea mud layers, which comprise distributed inclusions or lenses of evaporitic chloride, sulfate, and carbonate minerals as well as clay silicates, become increasingly exposed to unsaturated water as the sea level declines and are consequently destabilized and mobilized by both dissolution and physical erosion in the subsurface. This new interpretation of the underlying cause of sinkhole development is supported by surface observations in nearby channel systems. Overall, this study shows that shear wave seismic reflection technique is a promising method for enhanced near-surface imaging in such challenging alluvial fan settings.
Tomato (Solanum lycopersicum L.) being an important vegetable is cultivated and used throughout the world. It not only contributes in fulfilling the basic nutritional requirements of the human body but also has many health benefits due to its rich biochemical composition. However, its production at large scale is hampered by many limiting factors such as biotic and abiotic stresses. Among the different abiotic stresses, drought poses drastic impact on tomato yield. Drought stress is genetically regulated by many transcription factors that not only regulate the stress responsive mechanism but also facilitate the growth and development of tomato plants. NAC is an important stress related transcription factor genes family, and the ATAF1 gene, a member of this family, is involved in ABA signaling and stress response. In this study, tomato variety Rio Drande was transformed with drought resistant ATAF1 gene via Agrobacterium mediated gene transformation method. The ATAF1 gene was first cloned in the pK7WFG2 vector having kanamycin selectable marker and then it was introduced in the Agrobacterium tumefaciens strain GV3101 through heat shock method. The tomato cotyledon and hypocotyl ex-plants of variety "Rio Ggrande" were cultured on callus induction medium (MS + 2.5 mg/L IAA + 2 mg/L BAP). The calli were then infected with Agrobacterium tumefaciens strain GV3101 containing ATAF1 gene and selection was carried out on the kanamycin selectable medium (MS + 100 mg/L Kan), and were regenerated on MS medium with 1 mg/L IAA + 1 mg/L BAP. Out of 216 putative transformed calli, 13 calli were able to regenerate on the selection medium. Of the 13 calli, three transgenic tomato plantlets were recovered, and these were confirmed through PCR analysis for the presence of 432 bp fragment of ATAF1 gene. The transformation protocol reported here can be used to generate drought resistant tomato plants in future.
We performed leaching tests at elevated temperatures and pressures with an Alum black shale from Bomholm, Denmark and a Posidonia black shale from Lower Saxony, Germany. The Alum shale is a carbonate free black shale with pyrite and barite, containing 74.4 mu g/g U. The Posidonia shales is a calcareous shale with pyrite but without detectable amounts of barite containing 3.6 mu g/g U. Pyrite oxidized during the tests forming sulfuric acid which lowered the pH on values between 2 and 3 of the extraction fluid from the Alum shale favoring a release of U from the Alum shale to the fluid during the short-term and in the beginning of the long-term experiments. The activity concentration of U-238 is as high as 23.9 mBq/ml in the fluid for those experiments. The release of U and Th into the fluid is almost independent of pressure. The amount of uranium in the European shales is similar to that of the Marcellus Shale in the United States but the daughter product of U-238, the Ra-226 activity concentrations in the experimentally derived leachates from the European shales are quite low in comparison to that found in industrially derived flowback fluids from the Marcellus shale. This difference could mainly be due to missing Cl in the reaction fluid used in our experiments and a lower fluid to solid ratio in the industrial plays than in the experiments due to subsequent fracking and minute cracks from which Ra can easily be released.
Risk-based insurance is a commonly proposed and discussed flood risk adaptation mechanism in policy debates across the world such as in the United Kingdom and the United States of America. However, both risk-based premiums and growing risk pose increasing difficulties for insurance to remain affordable. An empirical concept of affordability is required as the affordability of adaption strategies is an important concern for policymakers, yet such a concept is not often examined. Therefore, a robust metric with a commonly acceptable affordability threshold is required. A robust metric allows for a previously normative concept to be quantified in monetary terms, and in this way, the metric is rendered more suitable for integration into public policy debates. This paper investigates the degree to which risk-based flood insurance premiums are unaffordable in Europe. In addition, this paper compares the outcomes generated by three different definitions of unaffordability in order to investigate the most robust definition. In doing so, the residual income definition was found to be the least sensitive to changes in the threshold. While this paper focuses on Europe, the selected definition can be employed elsewhere in the world and across adaption measures in order to develop a common metric for indicating the potential unaffordability problem.
The article provides a contribution to the glacial geomorphology of tropical high-altitude mountains. It focuses on the diversity of glacial landforms in the Cordillera Blanca (Peru). The landforms are classified as individual landform types as well as in their hypsometric sequence. Their spatial arrangement is depicted in vertical series and summarised in a glacial-morphological altitudinal belt model. The glacial landforms are analysed in a genetic succession from the moraine-delimited glacier forefields to the excessive pedestal moraines and taking account of the topographical conditions in the verticality. The Pleistocene glacial relief formation is considered as one of the dominating factors in the development of the moraine types. The sediments are on the one hand in situ deposition forms and on the other depositions dislocated by mass movements and represent paraglacial landforms. Using the example of the Paron Valley in the Artesonraju-Huandoy Massif and neighbouring valleys, the article provides a typology of the range of glacial and paraglacial landforms based on a holistic glacial landsystem approach with special reference to pedestal moraines. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
One paragraph of the manuscript of the paper has been inadvertently omitted in the very final stage of its compilation due to a technical mistake. Since this paragraph discusses the declustering of the used earthquake catalogue and is therefore necessary for the understanding of the seismicity data preprocessing, the authors decided to provide this paragraph in form of a correction. The respective paragraph belongs to chapter 2 of the paper, where it was placed originally, and should be inserted into the published paper before the second to the last paragraph. The omitted text reads as follows:
The basic seismic load parameters for the upcoming national design regulation for DIN EN 1998-1/NA result from the reassessment of the seismic hazard supported by the German Institution for Civil Engineering (DIBt). This 2016 version of the national seismic hazard assessment for Germany is based on a comprehensive involvement of all accessible uncertainties in models and parameters and includes the provision of a rational framework for integrating ranges of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variabilities in a comprehensive and transparent way. The developed seismic hazard model incorporates significant improvements over previous versions. It is based on updated and extended databases, it includes robust methods to evolve sets of models representing epistemic uncertainties, and a selection of the latest generation of ground motion prediction equations. The new earthquake model is presented here, which consists of a logic tree with 4040 end branches and essential innovations employed for a realistic approach. The output specifications were designed according to the user oriented needs as suggested by two review teams supervising the entire project. Seismic load parameters, for rock conditions of nu(S30) = 800 m/s, are calculated for three hazard levels (10, 5 and 2% probability of occurrence or exceedance within 50 years) and delivered in the form of uniform hazard spectra, within the spectral period range 0.02-3 s, and seismic hazard maps for peak ground acceleration, spectral response accelerations and for macroseismic intensities. Results are supplied as the mean, the median and the 84th percentile. A broad analysis of resulting uncertainties of calculated seismic load parameters is included. The stability of the hazard maps with respect to previous versions and the cross-border comparison is emphasized.
We present the first high-resolution trace element (Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, Ba/Ca) record from a stalagmite in southwestern Romania covering the last 3.6 ka, which provides the potential for quantitative climate reconstruction. Precise age control is based on three independent dating methods, in particular for the last 250 yr, where chemical lamina counting is combined with the identification of the 20th century radiocarbon bomb peak and Th-230/U dating. Long-term cave monitoring and model simulations of drip water and speleothem elemental variability indicate that precipitation-related processes are the main drivers of speleothem Mg/Ca ratios. Calibration against instrumental climate data shows a significant anti-correlation of speleothem Mg/Ca ratios with autumn/winter (October to March) precipitation (r = -0.61, p < 0.01), which is statistically robust when considering age uncertainties and auto-correlation. This relationship is used to develop a quantitative reconstruction of autumn/winter precipitation. During the late Holocene, our data suggest a heterogeneous pattern of past regional winter hydroclimate in the Carpathian/Balkan realm, along with intermittent weakening of the dominant influence of North Atlantic forcing. In agreement with other regional paleo-hydrological reconstructions, the observed variability reveals periodically occurring strong NW-SE hydro-climate gradients. We hypothesize, that this pattern is caused by shifts of the eastern edge of the area of influence of the NAO across central eastern Europe due to the confluence of North Atlantic forcing, and other climatic features such as the East Atlantic/Western Russia (EAWR) pattern. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
The Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta in NW Colombia is an isolated massif at the northernmost end of the Andes chain near the boundary with the Caribbean plate. Previous geologic mapping and K-Ar dating have shown that Jurassic plutonic and volcanic units make up a large part of the Santa Marta Massif (SMM). These rocks have been considered to be part of a Jurassic magmatic arc extending from NW Colombia to northern Chile, but without any geochemical basis for comparison. This paper reports on a geochemical and Sr-Nd-Pb isotope study of the Jurassic rocks in the SMM and provides 12 new U-Pb zircon ages from in-situ laser ICP-MS dating. The plutonic and volcanic units span a range from 45 to 78 wt.% SiO2, with a dominance of intermediate to felsic compositions with SiO2 > 57 wt.%. They classify as calc-alkaline, medium to high-K, metaluminous rocks with trace-element features typical for arc-derived magma series. In terms of their major and trace-element compositions, the SMM Jurassic units overlap with contemporary plutonic and volcanic rocks from other regions of the Central and Eastern Cordilleras of Colombia, and confirm an arc affinity. The new U-Pb ages range from 176 +/- 1 Ma to 192 +/- 2 Ma (n = 12), with most between 180 and 188 Ma (n = 7). The initial Sr isotope ratios (at 180 Ma) are between 0.7012 and 0.7071 (n = 29), with 3 outliers attributed to mobilization of Rb and/or Sr, Nearly all samples have negative( )epsilon Nd-(180) values between - 10.3 and 0.0 (n = 30), the two exceptions being only slightly positive (1.1 and 1.9). Measured Pb isotope ratios fall in a narrow range, with Pb-206/Pb-204 from 18.02 to 19.95, (207) Pb/(204) Pb from 15.56 to 15.67 and Pb-208/Pb-204 from 37.76 to 39.04 (n = 28). In the regional context of previous studies, these results confirm early Jurassic ages and an arc affinity for the widespread magmatism exposed in the eastern and northeastern Colombian Andes. We also note patterns in the distribution and composition of magmas. The magmatic activity in the Central Cordillera tends to be younger than in the Eastern Cordillera and is spatially more restricted to the vicinity of regional fault systems. In terms of composition, Jurassic igneous rocks in the Eastern Cordillera have systematically lower epsilon Nd-(180) values than those from the Central Cordillera, whereas the Pb isotope ratios overlap. We ascribe the Nd isotope variations to heterogeneity in the mantle source and/or degree of crustal contamination, whereas the Pb isotope ratios are crust-dominated and similar throughout the region. The spatio-temporal and compositional evolution of Jurassic magmatic rocks in the Northern Andes reflect the major plate kinematic readjustment between the Triassic and the Early Jurassic in the proto-Andean margin.
Process life cycle assessment (PLCA) is widely used to quantify environmental flows associated with the manufacturing of products and other processes. As PLCA always depends on defining a system boundary, its application involves truncation errors. Different methods of estimating truncation errors are proposed in the literature; most of these are based on artificially constructed system complete counterfactuals. In this article, we review the literature on truncation errors and their estimates and systematically explore factors that influence truncation error estimates. We classify estimation approaches, together with underlying factors influencing estimation results according to where in the estimation procedure they occur. By contrasting different PLCA truncation/error modeling frameworks using the same underlying input-output (I-O) data set and varying cut-off criteria, we show that modeling choices can significantly influence estimates for PLCA truncation errors. In addition, we find that differences in I-O and process inventory databases, such as missing service sector activities, can significantly affect estimates of PLCA truncation errors. Our results expose the challenges related to explicit statements on the magnitude of PLCA truncation errors. They also indicate that increasing the strictness of cut-off criteria in PLCA has only limited influence on the resulting truncation errors. We conclude that applying an additional I-O life cycle assessment or a path exchange hybrid life cycle assessment to identify where significant contributions are located in upstream layers could significantly reduce PLCA truncation errors.
The location and magnitude of Himalayan tectonic activity has been debated for decades, and several aspects remain unknown. For instance, the spatial distribution of crustal shortening that ultimately sustains Himalayan topography and the activity of major fault zones remain unknown at Ma timescales. In this study, we address the spatial deformation pattern in the data-scarce western Himalaya. We calculated catchment averaged, normalized river-steepness indices of non-glaciated drainage basins with tributary catchment areas between 5 and 200 km(2) (n = 2138). We analyzed the spatial distribution of the relative change of river steepness both along and across strike to gain information about the regional distribution of differential uplift pattern and relate this to the activity of distinctive fault segments. For our study area, we observe a positive correlation of averaged k(sn) values with long-term exhumation rates derived from previously published thermochronologic datasets combined with thermal modeling as well as with millennial timescale denudation rates based on cosmogenic nuclide dating. Our results indicate three tectono-geomorphic segments with distinctive landscape morphology, structural architecture, and fault geometry along the western Himalaya: Garhwal-Sutlej, Chamba, and Kashmir Himalaya (from east to west). Moreover, our data recognize distinctive fault segments showing varying thrust activity along strike of the Main Frontal Thrust, the Main Boundary Thrust, and in the vicinity of the steep topographic transition between the Lesser and Greater Himalaya. In this region, we relate out-of-sequence deformation along major basement thrust ramps, such as the Munsiari Thrust with deformation along a mid-crustal ramp along the basal decollement. We suggest that during the Quaternary, all major fault zones in the Western Himalaya experienced out-of-sequence faulting and have accommodated some portion of crustal shortening.
Tundra be dammed
(2018)
Increasing air temperatures are changing the arctic tundra biome. Permafrost is thawing, snow duration is decreasing, shrub vegetation is proliferating, and boreal wildlife is encroaching. Here we present evidence of the recent range expansion of North American beaver (Castor canadensis) into the Arctic, and consider how this ecosystem engineer might reshape the landscape, biodiversity, and ecosystem processes. We developed a remote sensing approach that maps formation and disappearance of ponds associated with beaver activity. Since 1999, 56 new beaver pond complexes were identified, indicating that beavers are colonizing a predominantly tundra region (18,293km(2)) of northwest Alaska. It is unclear how improved tundra stream habitat, population rebound following overtrapping for furs, or other factors are contributing to beaver range expansion. We discuss rates and likely routes of tundra beaver colonization, as well as effects on permafrost, stream ice regimes, and freshwater and riparian habitat. Beaver ponds and associated hydrologic changes are thawing permafrost. Pond formation increases winter water temperatures in the pond and downstream, likely creating new and more varied aquatic habitat, but specific biological implications are unknown. Beavers create dynamic wetlands and are agents of disturbance that may enhance ecosystem responses to warming in the Arctic.
The Gutenberg-Richter relation for earthquake magnitudes is the most famous empirical law in seismology. It states that the frequency of earthquake magnitudes follows an exponential distribution; this has been found to be a robust feature of seismicity above the completeness magnitude, and it is independent of whether global, regional, or local seismicity is analyzed. However, the exponent b of the distribution varies significantly in space and time, which is important for process understanding and seismic hazard assessment; this is particularly true because of the fact that the Gutenberg-Richter b-value acts as a proxy for the stress state and quantifies the ratio of large-to-small earthquakes. In our work, we focus on the automatic detection of statistically significant temporal changes of the b-value in seismicity data. In our approach, we use Bayes factors for model selection and estimate multiple change-points of the frequency-magnitude distribution in time. The method is first applied to synthetic data, showing its capability to detect change-points as function of the size of the sample and the b-value contrast. Finally, we apply this approach to examples of observational data sets for which b-value changes have previously been stated. Our analysis of foreshock and after-shock sequences related to mainshocks, as well as earthquake swarms, shows that only a portion of the b-value changes is statistically significant.
Chemostat experiments are employed to study predator-prey and other trophic interactions, frequently using phytoplankton-zooplankton systems. These experiments often use population dynamics as fingerprints of ecological and evolutionary processes, assuming that the contributions of all major actors to these dynamics are known. However, bacteria are often neglected although they are frequently present. We argue that even without external carbon input bacteria may affect the experimental outcomes depending on experimental conditions and the physiological traits of bacteria, phytoplankton, and zooplankton. Using a static carbon flux model and a dynamic simulation model, we predict the minimum and maximum impact of bacteria on phytoplankton-zooplankton population dynamics. Under bacteria-suppressing conditions, we find that the effect of bacteria is indeed negligible and their omission justified. Under bacteria-favoring conditions, however, bacteria may strongly affect average biomasses of phytoplankton and zooplankton. The population dynamics may become highly complex, which may result in wrong interpretations when inferring processes (e.g., trait changes) from population dynamic patterns without considering bacteria. We provide suggestions to reduce the bacterial impact experimentally. Besides optimizing experimental conditions (e.g., the dilution rate) the appropriate choice of the zooplankton predator is decisive. Counterintuitively, bacteria have a larger impact if the predator is not bacterivorous as high bacterial biomasses and complex population dynamics arise via competition for nutrients with the phytoplankton. Only at least partial bacterivory minimizes the impact of bacteria. Our results help to improve the design of chemostat experiments and their interpretation, and advance the study of ecological and evolutionary processes in aquatic food webs.
The variation of Rayleigh ellipticity versus frequency is gaining popularity in site characterization. It becomes a necessary observable to complement dispersion curves when inverting shear wave velocity profiles. Various methods have been proposed so far to extract polarization from ambient vibrations recorded on a single three-component station or with an array of three-component sensors. If only absolute values were recovered 10 yr ago, new array-based techniques were recently proposed with enhanced efficiencies providing also the ellipticity sign. With array processing, higher-order modes are often detected even in the ellipticity domain. We suggest to explore the properties of a high-resolution beamforming where radial and vertical components are explicitly included. If N is the number of three-component sensors, 2N x 2N cross-spectral density matrices are calculated for all presumed directions of propagation. They are built with N radial and N vertical channels. As a first approach, steering vectors are designed to fit with Rayleigh wave properties: the phase shift between radial and vertical components is either -Pi/2 or Pi/2. We show that neglecting the ellipticity tilt due to attenuation has only minor effects on the results. Additionally, we prove analytically that it is possible to retrieve the ellipticity value from the usual maximization of the high-resolution beam power. The method is tested on synthetic data sets and on experimental data. Both are reference sites already analysed by several authors. A detailed comparison with previous results on these cases is provided.
Many regions central to our understanding of tectonics and landscape evolution are active or ancient magmatic terranes, and robust interpretation of low-temperature thermochronologic ages in these settings requires careful attention to the drivers of rock heating and cooling, including magmatism. However, we currently lack a quantitative framework for evaluating the potential role of magmatic coolingthat is, post-magmatic thermal relaxationin shaping cooling age patterns in regions with a history of intrusive magmatism. Here we use analytical approximations and numerical models to characterize how low-temperature thermochronometers document cooling inside and around plutons in steadily exhuming environments. Our models predict that the thermal field a pluton intrudes into, specifically the ambient temperatures relative to the closure temperature of a given thermochronometer, is as important as the pluton size and temperature in controlling the pattern and extent of thermochronometer resetting in the country rocks around a pluton. We identify one advective and several conductive timescales that govern the relationship between the crystallization and cooling ages inside a pluton. In synthetic vertical age-elevation relationships (AERs), resetting next to plutons results in changes in AER slope that could be misinterpreted as past changes in exhumation rate if the history of magmatism is not accounted for. Finally, we find that large midcrustal plutons, such as those emplaced at similar to 10-15-km depth, can reset the low-temperature thermochronometers far above them in the upper crusta result with considerable consequences for thermochronology in arcs and regions with a history of magmatic activity that may not have a surface expression.
Bedrock landsliding in mountain belts can elevate overall chemical weathering rates through rapid dissolution of exhumed reactive mineral phases in transiently stored deposits. This link between a key process of erosion and the resultant weathering affects the sequestering of carbon dioxide through weathering of silicate minerals and broader links between erosion in active orogens and climate change. Here we address the effect on the carbon cycle of weathering induced by bedrock landsliding in Taiwan and the Western Southern Alps of New Zealand. Using solute chemistry data from samples of seepage from landslide deposits and river discharge from catchments with variable proportions of landsliding, we model the proportion of silicate and carbonate weathering and the balance of sulfuric and carbonic acids that act as weathering agents. We correct for secondary precipitation, geothermal, and cyclic input, to find a closer approximation of the weathering explicitly occurring within landslide deposits. We find highly variable proportions of sulfuric and carbonic acids driving weathering in landslides and stable hillslopes. Despite this variability, the predominance of rapid carbonate weathering within landslides and catchments where mass wasting is prevalent results at best in limited sequestration of carbon dioxide by this process of rapid erosion. In many cases where sulfuric acid is a key weathering agent, a net release of CO2 to the atmosphere occurs. This suggests that a causal link between erosion in mountain belts and climate change through the sequestration of CO2, if it exists, must operate through a process other than chemical weathering driven by landsliding. Plain Language Summary There is a long-standing debate surrounding the link between erosion and climate. It is often suggested that as temperatures increase, rainier and stormier weather could increase erosion of rock; as that rock is exposed, silicate minerals within could break down, which, on long time scales, can remove CO2 from the atmosphere, lowering global temperatures and acting as a negative feedback. Recent studies have shown that landslide deposits are key locations for the link between chemical weathering and physical erosion in some mountain belts. To test how landslides affect the erosion-climate link, we used samples of water seeping through landslides in Taiwan and New Zealand to calculate the amount of carbon dioxide that is either absorbed or released through this chemical reaction. We find that the large amount of freshly exposed rock in Taiwanese landslide deposits contains significant carbonate rock and sulfide minerals; the net result of the weathering of these minerals is a release of carbon dioxide, which inverts the traditional perspective on the role erosion plays in controlling carbon dioxide release. In some mountain belts, it seems that increased erosion and resulting landsliding may act to increase carbon dioxide in the air, opening further questions into the nature of erosional-climatic links.
Reconstructing how rivers respond to changes in runoff or sediment supply by incising or aggrading has been pivotal in gauging the role of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) as a geomorphic driver in the Himalayas. Here we present new chronological data for fluvial aggradation and incision from the Donga alluvial fan and the upper Alaknanda River, as well as a compilation of previous work. In addition to conventional OSL-SAR (Single-Aliquot Regenerative-Dose) dating method, we have tested and applied pulsed OSL (POSL) dating for quartz samples that include K-rich feldspar inclusions, which is expected to improve the applicability and validity of OSL ages in the Lesser Himalaya. For previously dated deposits, our OSL ages are shown to be systematically older than previously reported ages. These results suggest periods of aggradation in the Alaknanda and Dehradun Valleys mainly between similar to 25 and 35 ka. This most likely reflects decreased stream power during periods of weakened monsoon. In addition, in-situ cosmogenic beryllium-10 was used to infer bedrock surface exposure ages, which are interpreted as episodes of active fluvial erosion. Resulting exposure ages span from 3 to 6 ka, suggesting that strath terraces were exposed relatively recently, and incision was dominant through most of the Holocene. In combination, our results support precipitation-driven fluvial dynamics, which regulates the balance between stream power and sediment supply. On a larger spatial scale, however, fluvial dynamics are probably not spatially homogeneous as aggradation could have been taking place in adjacent catchments while incision dominated in the study area. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Two ground motion prediction equation models for subduction zones have been tested using a public ground motion database of the KiK-net records obtained by automated processing protocols (Dawood et al., 2016, https://doi.org/10.1193/071214EQS106). The database contains records of more than 700 interface earthquakes that occurred on the Japan subduction between 1998 and 2012. The Zhao et al. (2006, https://doi.org/10.1785/0120050122) ground motion prediction equation was shown to be the best suited model for the region. It was then used as backbone to analyze the variability of ground motion records. The residuals between observed and predicted ground motions have been analyzed to study the spatial variation of the earthquakes' ground motion frequency content on the Japan megathrust. This analysis revealed a depth dependency of generated ground motions consistent with the downdip segmentation proposed for subduction interfaces (Lay et al., 2012, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JB009133), a regional ground motion dependency that may be related with lateral variations of the mechanical properties of the subduction interface and a high-frequency radiations drop in the earthquake sequence that preceded the Tohoku-Oki earthquake Mw 9.0. The regional ground motion dependency suggests the existence of different domains along trench of the Japan subduction megathrust that control the ground motions and the wave radiation patterns of interface earthquakes. The location of their boundaries is consistent with the extension of the rupture of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, with pre-Tohoku interseismic coupling, and with the free air gravity anomalies.
Thermal conductivity (lambda) is an essential physical property of minerals and rocks and fundamental in constraining the thermal field of the lithosphere. In case that adequate samples to measure lambda are not available, it could be indirectly inferred from calculation. One of the most widely applied indirect methods for rocks involve modal mineralogy and porosity as parameters that are incorporated into mathematical mean or mixing models. Robust inferences from these approaches for crystalline rocks were impeded by a small number of studied samples or restriction to certain rock types. We employ this method and examine its applicability to low-porosity plutonic rocks by calculating bulk thermal conductivity lambda(b) for 45 samples covering the entire range from gabbro/diorite to granite. We show that the use of the harmonic-mean model for both rock matrix and porosity provided a good match between lambda(b.meas) and lambda(b.calc) of <10% deviation (2 sigma), with relative and absolute errors amounting to 1.49.7% and 4.44.9%, respectively. The results of our study constitute a big step forward to a robust conclusion on the overall applicability of the harmonic-mean model for inferring lambda(b) of isotropic, low-porosity, mafic to silicic plutonic and metamorphic rocks with an acceptable magnitude of error. Drill cuttings and enclaves form particularly interesting objects for application of this method, as they are poorly suited for direct measurement. Well-derived lambda values for those rocks would permit to calculate heat flow and to model more profoundly the thermal state of the deeper lithosphere.
The ability of water to transport and transform soil materials is one of the main drivers of soil and landscape development. In turn, soil and landscape properties determine how water is distributed in soil landscapes. Understanding the complex dynamics of this co-evolution of soils, landscapes and the hydrological system is fundamental in adapting land management to changes in climate. Soil-Landscape Evolution Models (SLEMs) are used to simulate the development and evolution of soils and landscapes. However, many hydrologic processes, such as preferential flow and subsurface lateral flow, are currently absent in these models. This limits the applicability of SLEMs to improve our understanding of feedbacks in the hydro-pedo-geomorphological system. Implementation of these hydrologic processes in SLEMs faces several complications related to calculation demands, limited methods for linking pedogenic and hydrologic processes, and limited data on quantification of changes in the hydrological system over time. In this contribution, we first briefly review processes and feedbacks in soil-landscape-hydrological systems. Next, we elaborate on the development required to include these processes in SLEMs. We discuss the state-of-the-art knowledge, identify complications, give partial solutions and suggest important future development. The main requirements for incorporating hydrologic processes in SLEMs are: (1) designing a model framework that can deal with varying timescales for different sets of processes, (2) developing and implementing methods for simulating pedogenesis as a function of water flow, (3) improving and implementing knowledge on the evolution and dynamics of soil hydraulic properties over different timescales, and (4) improving the database on temporal changes and dynamics of flow paths.
Knowledge of the present-day crustal in-situ stress field is a key for the understanding of geodynamic processes such as global plate tectonics and earthquakes. It is also essential for the management of geo-reservoirs and underground storage sites for energy and waste. Since 1986, the World Stress Map (WSM) project has systematically compiled the orientation of maximum horizontal stress (S-Hmax). For the 30th anniversary of the project, the WSM database has been updated significantly with 42,870 data records which is double the amount of data in comparison to the database release in 2008. The update focuses on areas with previously sparse data coverage to resolve the stress pattern on different spatial scales. In this paper, we present details of the new WSM database release 2016 and an analysis of global and regional stress pattern. With the higher data density, we can now resolve stress pattern heterogeneities from plate-wide to local scales. In particular, we show two examples of 40 degrees-60 degrees S-Hmax rotations within 70 km. These rotations can be used as proxies to better understand the relative importance of plate boundary forces that control the long wave-length pattern in comparison to regional and local controls of the crustal stress state. In the new WSM project phase IV that started in 2017, we will continue to further refine the information on the S-Hmax orientation and the stress regime. However, we will also focus on the compilation of stress magnitude data as this information is essential for the calibration of geomechanical-numerical models. This enables us to derive a 3-D continuous description of the stress tensor from point-wise and incomplete stress tensor information provided with the WSM database. Such forward models are required for safety aspects of anthropogenic activities in the underground and for a better understanding of tectonic processes such as the earthquake cycle.
It was lower during the monsoon due to rainfall, which reduces open burning activities within the valley and in the surrounding regions and thus reduces sources of CO. The meteorology of the valley also played a key role in determining the CO mixing ratios. The wind is calm and easterly in the shallow mixing layer, with a mixing layer height (MLH) of about 250 m, during the night and early morning. The MLH slowly increases after sunrise and decreases in the afternoon. As a result, the westerly wind becomes active and reduces the mixing ratio during the daytime. Furthermore, there was evidence of an increase in the O-3 mixing ratios in the Kathmandu Valley as a result of emissions in the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) region, particularly from biomass burning including agroresidue burning. A top-down estimate of the CO emission flux was made by using the CO mixing ratio and mixing layer height measured at Bode. The estimated annual CO flux at Bode was 4.9 mu g M-2 s(-1), which is 2-14 times higher than that in widely used emission inventory databases (EDGAR HTAP, REAS and INTEX-B). This difference in CO flux between Bode and other emission databases likely arises from large uncertainties in both the top-down and bottom-up approaches to estimating the emission flux. The O-3 mixing ratio was found to be highest during the premonsoon season at all sites, while the timing of the seasonal minimum varied across the sites. The daily maximum 8 h average O-3 exceeded the WHO recommended guideline of 50 ppb on more days at the hilltop station of Nagarkot (159 out of 357 days) than at the urban valley bottom sites of Paknajol (132 out of 354 days) and Bode (102 out of 353 days), presumably due to the influence of free-tropospheric air at the high-altitude site (as also indicated by Putero et al., 2015, for the Paknajol site in the Kathmandu Valley) as well as to titration of O-3 by fresh NOx emissions near the urban sites. More than 78 % of the exceedance days were during the premonsoon period at all sites. The high O-3 mixing ratio observed during the premonsoon period is of a concern for human health and ecosystems, including agroecosystems in the Kathmandu Valley and surrounding regions.
Himalayan rivers are frequently hit by catastrophic floods that are caused by the failure of glacial lake and landslide dams; however, the dynamics and long-term impacts of such floods remain poorly understood. We present a comprehensive set of observations that capture the July 2016 glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) in the Bhotekoshi/Sunkoshi River of Nepal. Seismic records of the flood provide new insights into GLOF mechanics and their ability to mobilize large boulders that otherwise prevent channel erosion. Because of this boulder mobilization, GLOF impacts far exceed those of the annual summer monsoon, and GLOFs may dominate fluvial erosion and channel-hillslope coupling many tens of kilometers downstream of glaciated areas. Long-term valley evolution in these regions may therefore be driven by GLOF frequency and magnitude, rather than by precipitation.
Glacial deposits on the high-altitude, arid southern Central Andean Plateau (CAP), the Puna in northwestern Argentina, document past changes in climate, but the associated geomorphic features have rarely been directly dated. This study provides direct age control of glacial moraine deposits from the central Puna (24 degrees S) at elevations of 3900-5000 m through surface exposure dating with cosmogenic nuclides. Our results show that the most extensive glaciations occurred before 95 ka and an additional major advance occurred between 46 and 39 ka. The latter period is synchronous with the highest lake levels in the nearby Pozuelos basin and the Minchin (Inca Huasi) wet phase on the Altiplano in the northern CAP. None of the dated moraines produced boulder ages corresponding to the Tauca wet phase (24-15 ka). Additionally, the volcanic lithologies of the deposits allow us to establish production ratios at low latitude and high elevation for five different nuclide and mineral systems: Be-10, Ne-21, and Al-26 from quartz (11 or 12 samples) and He-3 and Ne-21 from pyroxene (10 samples). We present production ratios for all combinations of the measured nuclides and cross-calibrated production rates for 21Ne in pyroxene and quartz for the high, (sub-)tropical Andes. The production rates are based on our Be-10-normalized production ratios and a weighted mean of reference 10Be production rates calibrated in the high, tropical Andes (4.02 +/- 0.12 at g(-1) yr(-1)). These are, Ne-21(qtz): 18.1 +/- 1.2 at g(-1) yr(-1) and Ne-21(px): 36.6 +/- 1.8 at g(-1) yr(-1) (En(88-94)) scaled to sea level and high latitude using the Lal/Stone scheme, with 1 sigma uncertainties. As He-3 and Al-26 have been directly calibrated in the tropical Andes, we recommend using those rates. Finally, we compare exposure ages calculated using all measured cosmogenic nuclides from each sample, including 11 feldspar samples measured for Cl-36, and a suite of previously published production rates. (C) 2018 Published by Elsevier B.V.
Organic matter characteristics in yedoma and thermokarst deposits on Baldwin Peninsula, west Alaska
(2018)
As Arctic warming continues and permafrost thaws, more soil and sedimentary organic matter (OM) will be decomposed in northern high latitudes. Still, uncertainties remain in the quality of the OM and the size of the organic carbon (OC) pools stored in different deposit types of permafrost landscapes. This study presents OM data from deep permafrost and lake deposits on the Baldwin Peninsula which is located in the southern portion of the continuous permafrost zone in west Alaska. Sediment samples from yedoma and drained thermokarst lake basin (DTLB) deposits as well as thermokarst lake sediments were analyzed for cryostratigraphical and biogeochemical parameters and their lipid biomarker composition to identify the below-ground OC pool size and OM quality of ice-rich permafrost on the Baldwin Peninsula. We provide the first detailed characterization of yedoma deposits on Baldwin Peninsula. We show that three-quarters of soil OC in the frozen deposits of the study region (total of 68 Mt) is stored in DTLB deposits (52 Mt) and one-quarter in the frozen yedoma deposits (16 Mt). The lake sediments contain a relatively small OC pool (4 Mt), but have the highest volumetric OC content (93 kgm(-3)) compared to the DTLB (35 kgm(-3)) and yedoma deposits (8 kgm(-3)), largely due to differences in the ground ice content. The biomarker analysis indicates that the OM in both yedoma and DTLB deposits is mainly of terrestrial origin. Nevertheless, the relatively high carbon preference index of plant leaf waxes in combination with a lack of a degradation trend with depth in the yedoma deposits indi-cates that OM stored in yedoma is less degraded than that stored in DTLB deposits. This suggests that OM in yedoma has a higher potential for decomposition upon thaw, despite the relatively small size of this pool. These findings show that the use of lipid biomarker analysis is valuable in the assessment of the potential future greenhouse gas emissions from thawing permafrost, especially because this area, close to the discontinuous permafrost boundary, is projected to thaw substantially within the 21st century.
Thermokarst lakes are prevalent in Arctic coastal lowland regions and sublake permafrost degradation and talik development contributes to greenhouse gas emissions by tapping the large permafrost carbon pool. Whereas lateral thermokarst lake expansion is readily apparent through remote sensing and shoreline measurements, sublake thawed sediment conditions and talik growth are difficult to measure. Here we combine transient electromagnetic surveys with thermal modeling, backed up by measured permafrost properties and radiocarbon ages, to reveal closed-talik geometry associated with a thermokarst lake in continuous permafrost. To improve access to talik geometry data, we conducted surveys along three transient electromagnetic transects perpendicular to lakeshores with different decadal-scale expansion rates of 0.16, 0.38, and 0.58m/year. We modeled thermal development of the talik using boundary conditions based on field data from the lake, surrounding permafrost and a borehole, independent of the transient electromagnetics. A talik depth of 91m was determined from analysis of the transient electromagnetic surveys. Using a lake initiation age of 1400years before present and available subsurface properties the results from thermal modeling of the lake center arrived at a best estimate talk depth of 80m, which is on the same order of magnitude as the results from the transient electromagnetic survey. Our approach has provided a noninvasive estimate of talik geometry suitable for comparable settings throughout circum-Arctic coastal lowland regions.
Taking into account the climatic conditions of the semiarid region of Brazil, with its intermittent rivers and long periods of water scarcity, a dense network of surface reservoirs (on average one dam every 5 km(2)) of very different sizes has been built. The impact of such a network on water and sediment dynamics constitutes a remarkable challenge for hydrologists. The main objective of this work is to present a novel way of simulating water and sediment fluxes through such high-density reservoir networks, which enables the assessment of water and sediment retention in those structures. The new reservoir modeling approach has been coupled with the fully process-oriented and semidistributed hydrological WASA-SED model, which was tailored for semiarid hydroclimatological characteristics. This integrated modeling system was applied to the 933-km(2) Bengue catchment, located in semiarid northeastern Brazil, which has a network of 114 reservoirs with a wide range of surface areas (from 0.003 to 350 ha). The small reservoirs were grouped into size classes according to their storage capacity and a cascade routing scheme was applied to describe the upstream-downstream position of the classes; the large reservoirs were handled explicitly in the reservoir modeling approach. According to the model results, the proposed approach is capable of representing the water and sediment fluxes though the entire reservoir network with reasonable accuracy. In addition, the model shows that the dynamics of water and sediment within the Bengue catchment are strongly impacted by the presence of multiple reservoirs, which are able to retain approximately 21% of the generated runoff and almost 42% of the sediment yield of the catchment for the simulation period, from 2000 to 2012. (C) 2018 American Society of Civil Engineers.
Reading the sediment record in terms of past climates is challenging since linking climate change to the associated responses of sedimentary systems is not always straightforward. Here we analyze the erosional response of landscapes on the Tibetan Plateau to interglacial climate forcing. Using the theory of dynamical systems on Holocene time series of geochemical proxies, we derive a sedimentary response model that accurately simulates observed proxy variation in three lake records. The model suggests that millennial variations in sediment composition reflect a self-organization of landscapes in response to abrupt climate change between 11.6 and 11.9 ka BP. The self-organization is characterized by oscillations in sediment supply emerging from a feedback between physical and chemical erosion processes, with estimated response times between 3,000 to 18,000 years depending on catchment topography. The implications of our findings emphasize the need for landscape response models to decipher the paleoclimatic code in continental sediment records. Plain Language Summary Lake sediments are an important source of information on past climates. Reading the information is not always straightforward. Complex interactions in landscapes can affect the transmission of climatic signals to the sediment record. However, the exact nature of such complex interactions remains unknown. This study compares sediment deposits of three lakes on the Tibetan Plateau. The deposits are continuous records of landscape responses to climate change during the last 12,000 years. We identified a mathematical model that accurately simulates changes in sediment composition at all sites. The model simulations suggest that an abrupt warming at the end of the last glacial period destabilized the landscapes. This caused fluctuations in the transport of sediments, which persisted for several thousand years. Our findings present evidence for a long-lasting impact of abrupt climate change on fundamental Earth surface processes.
Movements of tectonic plates often induce oblique deformation at divergent plate boundaries. This is in striking contrast with traditional conceptual models of rifting and rifted margin formation, which often assume 2-D deformation where the rift velocity is oriented perpendicular to the plate boundary. Here we quantify the validity of this assumption by analysing the kinematics of major continent-scale rift systems in a global plate tectonic reconstruction from the onset of Pangea breakup until the present day. We evaluate rift obliquity by joint examination of relative extension velocity and local rift trend using the script-based plate reconstruction software pyGPlates. Our results show that the global mean rift obliquity since 230 Ma amounts to 34 degrees with a standard deviation of 24 degrees, using the convention that the angle of obliquity is spanned by extension direction and rift trend normal. We find that more than similar to 70 % of all rift segments exceeded an obliquity of 20 degrees demonstrating that oblique rifting should be considered the rule, not the exception. In many cases, rift obliquity and extension velocity increase during rift evolution (e.g. Australia-Antarctica, Gulf of California, South Atlantic, India-Antarctica), which suggests an underlying geodynamic correlation via obliquity-dependent rift strength. Oblique rifting produces 3-D stress and strain fields that cannot be accounted for in simplified 2-D plane strain analysis. We therefore highlight the importance of 3-D approaches in modelling, surveying, and interpretation of most rift segments on Earth where oblique rifting is the dominant mode of deformation.
High-latitude treeless ecosystems represent spatially highly heterogeneous landscapes with small net carbon fluxes and a short growing season. Reliable observations and process understanding are critical for projections of the carbon balance of the climate-sensitive tundra. Space-borne remote sensing is the only tool to obtain spatially continuous and temporally resolved information on vegetation greenness and activity in remote circumpolar areas. However, confounding effects from persistent clouds, low sun elevation angles, numerous lakes, widespread surface inundation, and the sparseness of the vegetation render it highly challenging. Here, we conduct an extensive analysis of the timing of peak vegetation productivity as shown by satellite observations of complementary indicators of plant greenness and photosynthesis. We choose to focus on productivity during the peak of the growing season, as it importantly affects the total annual carbon uptake. The suite of indicators are as follows: (1) MODIS-based vegetation indices (VIs) as proxies for the fraction of incident photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) that is absorbed (fPAR), (2) VIs combined with estimates of PAR as a proxy of the total absorbed radiation (APAR), (3) sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) serving as a proxy for photosynthesis, (4) vegetation optical depth (VOD), indicative of total water content and (5) empirically upscaled modelled gross primary productivity (GPP). Averaged over the pan-Arctic we find a clear order of the annual peak as APAR <= GPP < SIF < VIs/VOD. SIF as an indicator of photosynthesis is maximised around the time of highest annual temperatures. The modelled GPP peaks at a similar time to APAR. The time lag of the annual peak between APAR and instantaneous SIF fluxes indicates that the SIF data do contain information on light-use efficiency of tundra vegetation, but further detailed studies are necessary to verify this. Delayed peak greenness compared to peak photosynthesis is consistently found across years and land-cover classes. A particularly late peak of the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) in regions with very small seasonality in greenness and a high amount of lakes probably originates from artefacts. Given the very short growing season in circumpolar areas, the average time difference in maximum annual photosynthetic activity and greenness or growth of 3 to 25 days (depending on the data sets chosen) is important and needs to be considered when using satellite observations as drivers in vegetation models.
Reading the sediment record in terms of past climates is challenging since linking climate change to the associated responses of sedimentary systems is not always straightforward. Here we analyze the erosional response of landscapes on the Tibetan Plateau to interglacial climate forcing. Using the theory of dynamical systems on Holocene time series of geochemical proxies, we derive a sedimentary response model that accurately simulates observed proxy variation in three lake records. The model suggests that millennial variations in sediment composition reflect a self-organization of landscapes in response to abrupt climate change between 11.6 and 11.9 ka BP. The self-organization is characterized by oscillations in sediment supply emerging from a feedback between physical and chemical erosion processes, with estimated response times between 3,000 to 18,000 years depending on catchment topography. The implications of our findings emphasize the need for landscape response models to decipher the paleoclimatic code in continental sediment records. Plain Language Summary Lake sediments are an important source of information on past climates. Reading the information is not always straightforward. Complex interactions in landscapes can affect the transmission of climatic signals to the sediment record. However, the exact nature of such complex interactions remains unknown. This study compares sediment deposits of three lakes on the Tibetan Plateau. The deposits are continuous records of landscape responses to climate change during the last 12,000 years. We identified a mathematical model that accurately simulates changes in sediment composition at all sites. The model simulations suggest that an abrupt warming at the end of the last glacial period destabilized the landscapes. This caused fluctuations in the transport of sediments, which persisted for several thousand years. Our findings present evidence for a long-lasting impact of abrupt climate change on fundamental Earth surface processes.
Evidence for Quaternary climate change in East Africa has been derived from outcrops on land and lake cores and from marine dust, leaf wax, and pollen records. These data have previously been used to evaluate the impact of climate change on hominin evolution, but correlations have proved to be difficult, given poor data continuity and the great distances between marine cores and terrestrial basins where fossil evidence is located. Here, we present continental coring evidence for progressive aridification since about 575 thousand years before present (ka), based on Lake Magadi (Kenya) sediments. This long-term drying trend was interrupted by many wet-dry cycles, with the greatest variability developing during times of high eccentricity-modulated precession. Intense aridification apparent in the Magadi record took place between 525 and 400 ka, with relatively persistent arid conditions after 350 ka and through to the present. Arid conditions in the Magadi Basin coincide with the Mid-Brunhes Event and overlap with mammalian extinctions in the South Kenya Rift between 500 and 400 ka. The 525 to 400 ka arid phase developed in the South Kenya Rift between the period when the last Acheulean tools are reported (at about 500 ka) and before the appearance of Middle Stone Age artifacts (by about 320 ka). Our data suggest that increasing Middle- to Late-Pleistocene aridification and environmental variability may have been drivers in the physical and cultural evolution of Homo sapiens in East Africa.
One common approach to cope with floods is the implementation of structural flood protection measures, such as levees or flood-control reservoirs, which substantially reduce the probability of flooding at the time of implementation. Numerous scholars have problematized this approach. They have shown that increasing the levels of flood protection can attract more settlements and high-value assets in the areas protected by the new measures. Other studies have explored how structural measures can generate a sense of complacency, which can act to reduce preparedness. These paradoxical risk changes have been described as "levee effect", "safe development paradox" or "safety dilemma". In this commentary, we briefly review this phenomenon by critically analysing the intended benefits and unintended effects of structural flood protection, and then we propose an interdisciplinary research agenda to uncover these paradoxical dynamics of risk.
Alkaline igneous rocks are relatively rare in settings of tectonic convergence and little is known about their petrogenesis in these settings. This study aims to contribute to a better understanding of the formation of alkaline igneous rocks by an investigation of the Tezhsar volcano-intrusive alkaline ring complex (TAC) in the Armenian Lesser Caucasus, which is located between the converging Eurasian and Arabian plates. We present new petrological, geochemical and Sr Nd isotope data for the TAC to constrain magma genesis and magma source characteristics. Moreover, we provide a new Ar-40/Ar-39 age of 41.0 +/- 0.5 Ma on amphibole from a nepheline syenite that is integrated into the regional context of ongoing regional convergence and widespread magmatism. The TAC is spatially concentric and measures similar to 10 km in diameter representing the relatively shallow plumbing system of a major stratovolcano juxtaposed by ring faulting with its extrusive products. The plutonic units comprise syenites and nepheline syenites, whereas the extrusive units are dominated by trachytic-phonolitic rocks. The characteristic feature of the TAC is the development of pseudomorphs after leucite in all types of the volcanic, subvolcanic and intrusive alkaline rocks. Whole-rock major element data show a metaluminous (Alkalinity Index = 0-0.1), alkalic and silica-undersaturated (Feldspathoid Silica-Saturation Index <0) character of the TAC. The general trace element enrichment and strong fractionation of REEs (La-N/Yb-N up to 70) indicate a relatively enriched magma source and small degrees of partial melting. All TAC rocks show a negative Nb Ta anomalies typical of subduction zone settings. The initial 87Sr/85Sr ratios (0.704-0.705) and positive sNd values (+3 to +5) indicate an isotopically depleted upper mantle and lack of significant crustal influence, which in turn suggests the TAC magma has formed via differentiation from lithospheric mantle melts.