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Protection motivation theory (PMT) has become a popular theory to explain the risk-reducing behavior of residents against natural hazards. PMT captures the two main cognitive processes that individuals undergo when faced with a threat, namely, threat appraisal and coping appraisal. The latter describes the evaluation of possible response measures that may reduce or avert the perceived threat. Although the coping appraisal component of PMT was found to be a better predictor of protective intentions and behavior, little is known about the factors that influence individuals’ coping appraisals of natural hazards. More insight into flood-coping appraisals of PMT, therefore, are needed to better understand the decision-making process of individuals and to develop effective risk communication strategies. This study presents the results of two surveys among more than 1,600 flood-prone households in Germany and France. Five hypotheses were tested using multivariate statistics regarding factors related to flood-coping appraisals, which were derived from the PMT framework, related literature, and the literature on social vulnerability. We found that socioeconomic characteristics alone are not sufficient to explain flood-coping appraisals. Particularly, observational learning from the social environment, such as friends and neighbors, is positively related to flood-coping appraisals. This suggests that social norms and networks play an important role in flood-preparedness decisions. Providing risk and coping information can also have a positive effect. Given the strong positive influence of the social environment on flood-coping appraisals, future research should investigate how risk communication can be enhanced by making use of the observed social norms and network effects.
After a comprehensive geophysical prospecting the Quaternary MA 1/2 tina Maar, located on a line between the two Quaternary scoria cones Komorni could be revealed by a scientific drilling at the German-Czech border in 2007. Further geophysical field investigations led to the discovery of another geological structure about 2.5 km ESE of the small town Neualbenreuth (NE-Bavaria, Germany), inferred to be also a maar structure, being the fourth volcanic feature aligned along the NW-SE trending Tachov fault zone. It is only faintly indicated as a partial circular rim in the digital elevation model. Though not expressed by a clear magnetic anomaly, geoelectric and refraction seismic tomography strongly indicates a bowl-shaped depression filled with low-resistivity and low-velocity material, correlating well with the well-defined negative gravity anomaly of - 2.5 mGal. Below ca. 15 m-thick debris layer, successions of mostly laminated sediments were recovered in a 100 m-long sediment core in 2015. Sections of finely laminated layers, likely varves, rich in organic matter and tree pollen, were recognized in the upper (22-30 m) and lower (70-86 m) part of the core, respectively, interpreted as interglacials, whereas mostly minerogenic laminated deposits, poor in organic matter, and (almost) barren of tree pollen are interpreted as clastic glacial deposits. According to a preliminary age model based on magnetostratigraphy, palynology, radiocarbon dating, and cyclostratigraphy, the recovered sediments span the time window from about 85 ka back to about 270 ka, covering marine isotope stages 5-8. Sedimentation rates are in the range of 10 cm ka(-1) in interglacials and up to 100 cm ka(-1) in glacial phases. The stratigraphic record resembles the one from MA 1/2 tina Maar, with its eruption date being derived from a nearby tephra deposit at 288 +/- 17 ka, thus supporting the age model of the inferred Neualbenreuth Maar.
To safeguard the sustainable use of ecosystems and their services, early detection of potentially damaging changes in functional capabilities is needed. To support a proper ecosystem management, the analysis of an ecosystem’s vulnerability provide information on its weaknesses as well as on its capacity to recover after suffering an impact. However, the application of the vulnerability concept to ecosystems is still an emerging topic. After providing background on the vulnerability concept, we summarize existing ecosystem vulnerability research on the basis of a systematic literature review with a special focus on ecosystem type, disciplinary background, and more detailed definition of the ecosystem vulnerability components. Using the Web of ScienceTM Core Collection, we overviewed the literature from 1991 onwards but used the 5 years from 2011 to 2015 for an in-depth analysis, including 129 articles. We found that ecosystem vulnerability analysis has been applied most notably in conservation biology, climate change research, and ecological risk assessments, pinpointing a limited spreading across the environmental sciences. It occurred primarily within marine and freshwater ecosystems. To avoid confusion, we recommend using the unambiguous term ecosystem vulnerability rather than ecological, environmental, population, or community vulnerability. Further, common ground has been identified, on which to define the ecosystem vulnerability components exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We propose a framework for ecosystem assessments that coherently connects the concepts of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptability as different ecosystem responses. A short outlook on the possible operationalization of the concept by ecosystem vulnerabilty indices, and a conclusion section complete the review.
The use of chironomids (Diptera: Chironomidae) as indicators of changes in natural and climatic settings allows one to reconstruct paleoclimatic and paleoenvironmental conditions. Based on the results of lithological and chironomid analyses, the loss on ignition (LOI) values, as well as the results of radiocarbon dating (C-14 AMS), new data on the paleoclimate in the Karelian Isthmus, in particular the quantitative reconstruction of the mean July temperature (T (July), A degrees C) in the Late Pleistocene and Holocene and the evolution of the ecosystem of Medvedevskoe Lake have been obtained.
Quantifying the pace of ice-sheet growth is critical to understanding ice-age climate and dynamics. Here, we show that the diversion of the Hudson River (northeastern North America) late in the last glaciation phase (ca. 30 ka), which some previous studies have speculated was due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA), can be used to infer the timing of the Laurentide Ice Sheet’s growth to its maximum extent. Landscapes in the vicinity of glaciated regions have likely responded to crustal deformation produced by ice-sheet growth and decay through river drainage reorganization, given that rates of uplift and subsidence are on the order of tens of meters per thousand years. We perform global, gravitationally self-consistent simulations of GIA and input the predicted crustal deformation field into a landscape evolution model. Our calculations indicate that the eastward diversion of the Hudson River at 30 ka is consistent with exceptionally rapid growth of the Laurentide Ice Sheet late in the glaciation phase, beginning at 50–35 ka.
Landslide hazard motivates the need for a deeper understanding of the events that occur before, during, and after catastrophic slope failures. Due to the destructive nature of such events, in situ observation is often difficult or impossible. Here, we use data from a network of 58 seismic stations to characterise a large landslide at the Askja caldera, Iceland, on 21 July 2014. High data quality and extensive network coverage allow us to analyse both long- and short-period signals associated with the landslide, and thereby obtain information about its triggering, initiation, timing, and propagation. At long periods, a landslide force history inversion shows that the Askja landslide was a single, large event starting at the SE corner of the caldera lake at 23:24:05 UTC and propagating to the NW in the following 2 min The bulk sliding mass was 7-16 x 10(10) kg, equivalent to a collapsed volume of 35-80 x 10(6) m(3). The sliding mass was displaced downslope by 1260 +/- 250 m. At short periods, a seismic tremor was observed for 30 min before the landslide. The tremor is approximately harmonic with a fundamental frequency of 2.3 Hz and shows time-dependent changes of its frequency content. We attribute the seismic tremor to stick-slip motion along the landslide failure plane. Accelerating motion leading up to the catastrophic slope failure culminated in an aseismic quiescent period for 2 min before the landslide. We propose that precursory seismic signals may be useful in landslide early-warning systems. The 8 h after the main landslide failure are characterised by smaller slope failures originating from the destabilised caldera wall decaying in frequency and magnitude. We introduce the term "afterslides" for this subsequent, declining slope activity after a large landslide.
A comprehensive hydro-sedimentological dataset for the Isabena catchment, northeastern (NE) Spain, for the period 2010-2018 is presented to analyse water and sediment fluxes in a Mediterranean mesoscale catchment. The dataset includes rainfall data from 12 rain gauges distributed within the study area complemented by meteorological data of 12 official meteo-stations. It comprises discharge data derived from water stage measurements as well as suspended sediment concentrations (SSCs) at six gauging stations of the River Isabena and its sub-catchments. Soil spectroscopic data from 351 suspended sediment samples and 152 soil samples were collected to characterize sediment source regions and sediment properties via fingerprinting analyses. The Isabena catchment (445 km(2)) is located in the southern central Pyrenees ranging from 450 m to 2720 m a.s.l.; together with a pronounced topography, this leads to distinct temperature and precipitation gradients. The River Isabena shows marked discharge variations and high sediment yields causing severe siltation problems in the downstream Barasona Reservoir. The main sediment source is badland areas located on Eocene marls that are well connected to the river network. The dataset features a comprehensive set of variables in a high spatial and temporal resolution suitable for the advanced process understanding of water and sediment fluxes, their origin and connectivity and sediment budgeting and for the evaluation and further development of hydro-sedimentological models in Mediterranean mesoscale mountainous catchments.
For over a century, geomorphologists have attempted to unravel information about landscape evolution, and processes that drive it, using river profiles. Many studies have combined new topographic datasets with theoretical models of channel incision to infer erosion rates, identify rock types with different resistance to erosion, and detect potential regions of tectonic activity. The most common metric used to analyse river profile geometry is channel steepness, or k(s). However, the calculation of channel steepness requires the normalisation of channel gradient by drainage area. This normalisation requires a power law exponent that is referred to as the channel concavity index. Despite the concavity index being crucial in determining channel steepness, it is challenging to constrain. In this contribution, we compare both slope-area methods for calculating the concavity index and methods based on integrating drainage area along the length of the channel, using so-called "chi" (chi) analysis. We present a new chi-based method which directly compares chi values of tributary nodes to those on the main stem; this method allows us to constrain the concavity index in transient landscapes without assuming a linear relationship between chi and elevation. Patterns of the concavity index have been linked to the ratio of the area and slope exponents of the stream power incision model (m/n); we therefore construct simple numerical models obeying detachment-limited stream power and test the different methods against simulations with imposed m and n. We find that chi-based methods are better than slope-area methods at reproducing imposed m/n ratios when our numerical landscapes are subject to either transient uplift or spatially varying uplift and fluvial erodibility. We also test our methods on several real landscapes, including sites with both lithological and structural heterogeneity, to provide examples of the methods' performance and limitations. These methods are made available in a new software package so that other workers can explore how the concavity index varies across diverse landscapes, with the aim to improve our understanding of the physics behind bedrock channel incision.
The impact of reservoir heterogeneities on High-Temperature aquifer thermal energy storage systems
(2018)
We conducted a geoscientific feasibility study for the development of a high-temperature thermal aquifer energy storage system (HT-ATES) outside the capital of Muscat, northern Oman. The aquifer storage is part of a solar geothermal cooling project for the sustainable and continuous cooling of office buildings. The main concept is that excess solar energy will be stored in the subsurface through hot water injection and subsequently utilised as auxiliary energy source during peak demand times. The characterisation of aquifer heterogeneities is thus essential to predict subsurface thermal heat plume development and recovery efficiency of the storage system. We considered two aquifer systems as potential storage horizons, (i) a clastic-dominated alluvial fan system where individual channel systems in combination with diagenetic alterations constitute the main heterogeneities and (ii) a carbonate-dominated system represented by a homogenous layer-cake architecture. The feasibility study included a multidisciplinary approach from initial field work, geocellular reservoir modelling to finite element fluid flow and thermal modelling. Our results show that for the HT-ATES system, with a high frequency of injection and production cycles, heat loss mainly occurs due to heterogeneities in the permeability field of the aquifer in combination with buoyancy driven vertical fluid flow. An impermeable cap-rock is needed to keep the heat plume in place. Conductive heat loss is a minor issue. Highly complex heat plume geometries are apparent in the clastic channel system and ATES well planning is challenging due to the complex and interconnected high permeable channels. The carbonate sequence shows uniform plume geometries due to the layer cake architecture of the system and is tentatively more suitable for ATES development. Based on our findings we propose the general concept of HT-ATES traps, incorporating and building on expertise and knowledge from petroleum and reservoir geology regarding reservoir rocks and suitable trap&seal geometries. The concept can be used as guideline for future high-temperature aquifer storage exploration and development.
With increasing amount of strong motion data, Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) developers are able to quantify empirical site amplification functions (delta S2S(s)) from GMPE residuals, for use in site-specific Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment. In this study, we first derive a GMPE for 5% damped Pseudo Spectral Acceleration (g) of Active Shallow Crustal earthquakes in Japan with 3.4 <= M-w <= 7.3 and 0 <= R-JB <= 600km. Using k-mean spectral clustering technique, we then classify our estimated delta S2S(s)(T = 0.01 - 2s) of 588 wellcharacterized sites, into 8 site clusters with distinct mean site amplification functions, and within-cluster site-tosite variability similar to 50% smaller than the overall dataset variability (phi(S2S)). Following an evaluation of existing schemes, we propose a revised data-driven site classification characterized by kernel density distributions of V-s30, V-s10, H-800, and predominant period (T-G) of the site clusters.