The effect of rainfall changes on economic production
- Macro-economic assessments of climate impacts lack an analysis of the distribution of daily rainfall, which can resolve both complex societal impact channels and anthropogenically forced changes(1-6). Here, using a global panel of subnational economic output for 1,554 regions worldwide over the past 40 years, we show that economic growth rates are reduced by increases in the number of wet days and in extreme daily rainfall, in addition to responding nonlinearly to the total annual and to the standardized monthly deviations of rainfall. Furthermore, high-income nations and the services and manufacturing sectors are most strongly hindered by both measures of daily rainfall, complementing previous work that emphasized the beneficial effects of additional total annual rainfall in low-income, agriculturally dependent economies(4,7). By assessing the distribution of rainfall at multiple timescales and the effects on different sectors, we uncover channels through which climatic conditions can affect the economy. These results suggest thatMacro-economic assessments of climate impacts lack an analysis of the distribution of daily rainfall, which can resolve both complex societal impact channels and anthropogenically forced changes(1-6). Here, using a global panel of subnational economic output for 1,554 regions worldwide over the past 40 years, we show that economic growth rates are reduced by increases in the number of wet days and in extreme daily rainfall, in addition to responding nonlinearly to the total annual and to the standardized monthly deviations of rainfall. Furthermore, high-income nations and the services and manufacturing sectors are most strongly hindered by both measures of daily rainfall, complementing previous work that emphasized the beneficial effects of additional total annual rainfall in low-income, agriculturally dependent economies(4,7). By assessing the distribution of rainfall at multiple timescales and the effects on different sectors, we uncover channels through which climatic conditions can affect the economy. These results suggest that anthropogenic intensification of daily rainfall extremes(8-10) will have negative global economic consequences that require further assessment by those who wish to evaluate the costs of anthropogenic climate change.…
Author details: | Maximilian KotzORCiDGND, Anders LevermannORCiDGND, Leonie WenzORCiDGND |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-04283-8 |
ISSN: | 0028-0836 |
ISSN: | 1476-4687 |
Pubmed ID: | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35022593 |
Title of parent work (English): | Nature : the international journal of science |
Publisher: | Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature |
Place of publishing: | London |
Publication type: | Article |
Language: | English |
Date of first publication: | 2022/01/12 |
Publication year: | 2022 |
Release date: | 2024/03/15 |
Volume: | 601 |
Issue: | 7892 |
Number of pages: | 12 |
First page: | 223 |
Last Page: | 227 |
Funding institution: | Volkswagen Foundation; Horizon 2020 Framework Programme of the European; Union [820712] |
Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Physik und Astronomie |
DDC classification: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 52 Astronomie / 520 Astronomie und zugeordnete Wissenschaften |
5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 53 Physik / 530 Physik | |
Peer review: | Referiert |