Predicting irregular migration
- German and European migration policy operates in permanent crisis mode. Sudden increases in irregular immigration create a sense of loss of control, which is instrumentalised by populist forces. This has generated great interest in quantitative migration predictions. High expectations are placed in the AI-based tools currently under devel­op­ment for forecasting irregular migration. The potential applications of these tools are manifold. They range from managing and strengthening the EU's reception capacity and border protections to configuring humanitarian aid provision and longer-term planning of development programmes. There is a significant gap between the expectations placed in the new instruments and their practical utility. Technical limits exist, medium-term forecasts are methodologically implausible, and channels for feeding the results into political decision-making processes are lacking. The great demand for predictions is driven by the political functions of migration prediction, which include its uses inGerman and European migration policy operates in permanent crisis mode. Sudden increases in irregular immigration create a sense of loss of control, which is instrumentalised by populist forces. This has generated great interest in quantitative migration predictions. High expectations are placed in the AI-based tools currently under devel­op­ment for forecasting irregular migration. The potential applications of these tools are manifold. They range from managing and strengthening the EU's reception capacity and border protections to configuring humanitarian aid provision and longer-term planning of development programmes. There is a significant gap between the expectations placed in the new instruments and their practical utility. Technical limits exist, medium-term forecasts are methodologically implausible, and channels for feeding the results into political decision-making processes are lacking. The great demand for predictions is driven by the political functions of migration prediction, which include its uses in political communication, funding acquisition and legitimisation of political decisions. Investment in the quality of the underlying data will be more productive than developing a succession of new prediction tools. Funding for applications in emergency relief and development cooperation should be prioritised. Crisis early warning and risk analysis should also be strengthened and their networking improved.…
Author details: | Steffen Angenendt, Anne Koch, Jasper TjadenORCiDGND |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.18449/2023RP11 |
ISSN: | 2747-5123 |
ISSN: | 1863-1053 |
Title of parent work (English): | high hopes, meagre results |
Subtitle (English): | SWP research paper |
Publisher: | Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) |
Place of publishing: | Berlin |
Publication type: | Working Paper |
Language: | English |
Year of first publication: | 2023 |
Publication year: | 2023 |
Release date: | 2024/07/30 |
Tag: | Agentenbasierte Modellierung; Krisenfrüherkennung; Künstliche Intelligenz; Migration; Migrationspolitik; Risikoanalyse; Vorausschau; Vorhersage; Wanderungsprognosen; maschinelles Lernen Common Integrated Risk Analysis Model (CIRAM); Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC); Frontex; Frontex Risk Analysis Network (FRAN); IOM; Pact on Migration and Asylum; UNHCR; displacement forecasting; forecast; predicting irregular migration; quantitative migration prediction |
Volume: | 11 |
Number of pages: | 36 |
Organizational units: | Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Sozialwissenschaften / Fachgruppe Soziologie |
DDC classification: | 3 Sozialwissenschaften / 30 Sozialwissenschaften, Soziologie / 300 Sozialwissenschaften |
3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft | |
Peer review: | Referiert |
Publishing method: | Open Access / Bronze Open-Access |
License (German): | Keine öffentliche Lizenz: Unter Urheberrechtsschutz |