Towards a sensitivity analysis in seismic risk with probabilistic building exposure models
- Efforts have been made in the past to enhance building exposure models on a regional scale with increasing spatial resolutions by integrating different data sources. This work follows a similar path and focuses on the downscaling of the existing SARA exposure model that was proposed for the residential building stock of the communes of Valparaiso and Vina del Mar (Chile). Although this model allowed great progress in harmonising building classes and characterising their differential physical vulnerabilities, it is now outdated, and in any case, it is spatially aggregated over large administrative units. Hence, to more accurately consider the impact of future earthquakes on these cities, it is necessary to employ more reliable exposure models. For such a purpose, we propose updating this existing model through a Bayesian approach by integrating ancillary data that has been made increasingly available from Volunteering Geo-Information (VGI) activities. Its spatial representation is also optimised in higher resolution aggregation unitsEfforts have been made in the past to enhance building exposure models on a regional scale with increasing spatial resolutions by integrating different data sources. This work follows a similar path and focuses on the downscaling of the existing SARA exposure model that was proposed for the residential building stock of the communes of Valparaiso and Vina del Mar (Chile). Although this model allowed great progress in harmonising building classes and characterising their differential physical vulnerabilities, it is now outdated, and in any case, it is spatially aggregated over large administrative units. Hence, to more accurately consider the impact of future earthquakes on these cities, it is necessary to employ more reliable exposure models. For such a purpose, we propose updating this existing model through a Bayesian approach by integrating ancillary data that has been made increasingly available from Volunteering Geo-Information (VGI) activities. Its spatial representation is also optimised in higher resolution aggregation units that avoid the inconvenience of having incomplete building-by-building footprints. A worst-case earthquake scenario is presented to calculate direct economic losses and highlight the degree of uncertainty imposed by exposure models in comparison with other parameters used to generate the seismic ground motions within a sensitivity analysis. This example study shows the great potential of using increasingly available VGI to update worldwide building exposure models as well as its importance in scenario-based seismic risk assessment.…
Author details: | Juan Camilo Gomez ZapataORCiDGND, Raquel Zafrir, Massimiliano PittoreORCiD, Yvonne MerinoORCiD |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi11020113 |
ISSN: | 2220-9964 |
Title of parent work (English): | ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information |
Subtitle (English): | an application in Valparaiso, Chile using ancillary open-source data and parametric ground motions |
Publisher: | MDPI |
Place of publishing: | Basel |
Publication type: | Article |
Language: | English |
Date of first publication: | 2022/02/06 |
Publication year: | 2022 |
Release date: | 2024/06/06 |
Tag: | Bayesian model; OpenStreetMap; buildings; downscaling; earthquake; exposure; ground motion fields; risk; sensitivity; vulnerability |
Volume: | 11 |
Issue: | 2 |
Article number: | 113 |
Number of pages: | 38 |
Funding institution: | German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) [03G0876A-J,; 03G0905A-H]; Research Center for Integrated Disaster Risk Management; (CIGIDEN) [ANID/FONDAP/15110017] |
Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Geowissenschaften |
DDC classification: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften |
Peer review: | Referiert |
Publishing method: | Open Access / Gold Open-Access |
DOAJ gelistet | |
License (German): | CC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International |