Werner von Bloh, Maria Carmen Romano, Marco Thiel

• We quantify the long-term predictability of global mean daily temperature data by means of the Renyi entropy of second order K-2. We are interested in the yearly amplitude fluctuations of the temperature. Hence, the data are low- pass filtered. The obtained oscillatory signal has a more or less constant frequency, depending on the geographical coordinates, but its amplitude fluctuates irregularly. Our estimate of K-2 quantifies the complexity of these amplitude fluctuations. We compare the results obtained for the CRU data set (interpolated measured temperature in the years 1901- 2003 with 0.5 degrees resolution, Mitchell et al., 2005(1)) with the ones obtained for the temperature data from a coupled ocean-atmosphere global circulation model (AOGCM, calculated at DKRZ). Furthermore, we compare the results obtained by means of K-2 with the linear variance of the temperature data