Ripple resonance amplifies economic welfare loss from weather extremes
- The most complex but potentially most severe impacts of climate change are caused by extreme weather events. In a globally connected economy, damages can cause remote perturbations and cascading consequences-a ripple effect along supply chains. Here we show an economic ripple resonance that amplifies losses when consecutive or overlapping weather extremes and their repercussions interact. This amounts to an average amplification of 21% for climate-induced heat stress, river floods, and tropical cyclones. Modeling the temporal evolution of 1.8 million trade relations between >7000 regional economic sectors, we find that the regional responses to future extremes are strongly heterogeneous also in their resonance behavior. The induced effect on welfare varies between gains due to increased demand in some regions and losses due to demand or supply shortages in others. Within the current global supply network, the ripple resonance effect of extreme weather is strongest in high-income economies-an important effect to consider whenThe most complex but potentially most severe impacts of climate change are caused by extreme weather events. In a globally connected economy, damages can cause remote perturbations and cascading consequences-a ripple effect along supply chains. Here we show an economic ripple resonance that amplifies losses when consecutive or overlapping weather extremes and their repercussions interact. This amounts to an average amplification of 21% for climate-induced heat stress, river floods, and tropical cyclones. Modeling the temporal evolution of 1.8 million trade relations between >7000 regional economic sectors, we find that the regional responses to future extremes are strongly heterogeneous also in their resonance behavior. The induced effect on welfare varies between gains due to increased demand in some regions and losses due to demand or supply shortages in others. Within the current global supply network, the ripple resonance effect of extreme weather is strongest in high-income economies-an important effect to consider when evaluating past and future economic climate impacts.…
| Author details: | Kilian KuhlaORCiDGND, Sven N. WillnerORCiDGND, Christian OttoORCiD, Tobias GeigerORCiDGND, Anders LevermannORCiDGND |
|---|---|
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2932 |
| ISSN: | 1748-9326 |
| Title of parent work (English): | Environmental research letters : ERL / Institute of Physics |
| Publisher: | IOP Publ. Ltd. |
| Place of publishing: | Bristol |
| Publication type: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Date of first publication: | 2021/11/29 |
| Publication year: | 2021 |
| Release date: | 2024/04/29 |
| Tag: | climate change; climate impacts; consecutive disasters; economic ripple resonance; repercussion resonance; supply network; weather extremes |
| Volume: | 16 |
| Issue: | 11 |
| Article number: | 114010 |
| Number of pages: | 8 |
| Funding institution: | German Academic Scholarship Foundation [FKZ: 01LA1817C, 01LP1907A, FKZ: 01LA1829A]; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)Federal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF) [FKZ: 01LA1817C, 01LP1907A, FKZ: 01LA1829A]; Horizon 2020 Framework Programme of the European Union [820712]; Leibniz foundation under the research Project ENGAGE [SAW-2016-PIK-1] |
| Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Physik und Astronomie |
| DDC classification: | 6 Technik, Medizin, angewandte Wissenschaften / 69 Hausbau, Bauhandwerk / 690 Hausbau, Bauhandwerk |
| Peer review: | Referiert |
| Publishing method: | Open Access / Gold Open-Access |
| DOAJ gelistet | |
| License (German): |  CC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International |
