Tipping elements of the Indian monsoon: Prediction of onset and withdrawal
- Forecasting the onset and withdrawal of the Indian summer monsoon is crucial for the life and prosperity of more than one billion inhabitants of the Indian subcontinent. However, accurate prediction of monsoon timing remains a challenge, despite numerous efforts. Here we present a method for prediction of monsoon timing based on a critical transition precursor. We identify geographic regions-tipping elements of the monsoon-and use them as observation locations for predicting onset and withdrawal dates. Unlike most predictability methods, our approach does not rely on precipitation analysis but on air temperature and relative humidity, which are well represented both in models and observations. The proposed method allows to predict onset 2 weeks earlier and withdrawal dates 1.5 months earlier than existing methods. In addition, it enables to correctly forecast monsoon duration for some anomalous years, often associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation.
Author details: | Veronika Stolbova, Elena Surovyatkina, Bodo BookhagenORCiDGND, Jürgen KurthsORCiDGND |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL068392 |
ISSN: | 0094-8276 |
ISSN: | 1944-8007 |
Title of parent work (English): | Geophysical research letters |
Publisher: | American Geophysical Union |
Place of publishing: | Washington |
Publication type: | Article |
Language: | English |
Year of first publication: | 2016 |
Publication year: | 2016 |
Release date: | 2020/03/22 |
Volume: | 43 |
Number of pages: | 9 |
First page: | 3982 |
Last Page: | 3990 |
Funding institution: | Russian Federation [14.Z50.31.0033]; Institute of Applied Physics of RAS; Russian Foundation for Basic Research (RFBR) [16-07-01186] |
Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Physik und Astronomie |
Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Geowissenschaften | |
Peer review: | Referiert |
Institution name at the time of the publication: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Erd- und Umweltwissenschaften |