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Global sensitivity analysis of parameter uncertainty in landscape evolution models

  • The evaluation and verification of landscape evolution models (LEMs) has long been limited by a lack of suitable observational data and statistical measures which can fully capture the complexity of landscape changes. This lack of data limits the use of objective function based evaluation prolific in other modelling fields, and restricts the application of sensitivity analyses in the models and the consequent assessment of model uncertainties. To overcome this deficiency, a novel model function approach has been developed, with each model function representing an aspect of model behaviour, which allows for the application of sensitivity analyses. The model function approach is used to assess the relative sensitivity of the CAESAR-Lisflood LEM to a set of model parameters by applying the Morris method sensitivity analysis for two contrasting catchments. The test revealed that the model was most sensitive to the choice of the sediment transport formula for both catchments, and that each parameter influenced model behaviours differently,The evaluation and verification of landscape evolution models (LEMs) has long been limited by a lack of suitable observational data and statistical measures which can fully capture the complexity of landscape changes. This lack of data limits the use of objective function based evaluation prolific in other modelling fields, and restricts the application of sensitivity analyses in the models and the consequent assessment of model uncertainties. To overcome this deficiency, a novel model function approach has been developed, with each model function representing an aspect of model behaviour, which allows for the application of sensitivity analyses. The model function approach is used to assess the relative sensitivity of the CAESAR-Lisflood LEM to a set of model parameters by applying the Morris method sensitivity analysis for two contrasting catchments. The test revealed that the model was most sensitive to the choice of the sediment transport formula for both catchments, and that each parameter influenced model behaviours differently, with model functions relating to internal geomorphic changes responding in a different way to those relating to the sediment yields from the catchment outlet. The model functions proved useful for providing a way of evaluating the sensitivity of LEMs in the absence of data and methods for an objective function approach.zeige mehrzeige weniger

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Metadaten
Verfasserangaben:Christopher J. SkinnerORCiD, Tom J. CoulthardORCiD, Wolfgang SchwanghartORCiDGND, Marco J. Van De WielORCiD, Greg HancockORCiD
URN:urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-468013
DOI:https://doi.org/10.25932/publishup-46801
ISSN:1866-8372
Titel des übergeordneten Werks (Deutsch):Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
Schriftenreihe (Bandnummer):Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe (1084)
Publikationstyp:Postprint
Sprache:Englisch
Datum der Erstveröffentlichung:11.01.2021
Erscheinungsjahr:2018
Veröffentlichende Institution:Universität Potsdam
Datum der Freischaltung:11.01.2021
Freies Schlagwort / Tag:catchment; hydraulic models; mountain erosion; numerical models; periglacial engine; rainfall variability; river; scale; sediment transport; self-organized criticality
Ausgabe:1084
Seitenanzahl:18
Erste Seite:4873
Letzte Seite:4888
Quelle:Geoscientific Model Development 11 (2018) 4873–4888 DOI: 10.5194/gmd-11-4873-2018
Organisationseinheiten:Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Umweltwissenschaften und Geographie
DDC-Klassifikation:9 Geschichte und Geografie / 91 Geografie, Reisen / 910 Geografie, Reisen
Peer Review:Referiert
Publikationsweg:Open Access / Green Open-Access
Lizenz (Deutsch):License LogoCC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International
Externe Anmerkung:Bibliographieeintrag der Originalveröffentlichung/Quelle
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