Global sensitivity analysis of parameter uncertainty in landscape evolution models

  • The evaluation and verification of landscape evolution models (LEMs) has long been limited by a lack of suitable observational data and statistical measures which can fully capture the complexity of landscape changes. This lack of data limits the use of objective function based evaluation prolific in other modelling fields, and restricts the application of sensitivity analyses in the models and the consequent assessment of model uncertainties. To overcome this deficiency, a novel model function approach has been developed, with each model function representing an aspect of model behaviour, which allows for the application of sensitivity analyses. The model function approach is used to assess the relative sensitivity of the CAESAR-Lisflood LEM to a set of model parameters by applying the Morris method sensitivity analysis for two contrasting catchments. The test revealed that the model was most sensitive to the choice of the sediment transport formula for both catchments, and that each parameter influenced model behaviours differently,The evaluation and verification of landscape evolution models (LEMs) has long been limited by a lack of suitable observational data and statistical measures which can fully capture the complexity of landscape changes. This lack of data limits the use of objective function based evaluation prolific in other modelling fields, and restricts the application of sensitivity analyses in the models and the consequent assessment of model uncertainties. To overcome this deficiency, a novel model function approach has been developed, with each model function representing an aspect of model behaviour, which allows for the application of sensitivity analyses. The model function approach is used to assess the relative sensitivity of the CAESAR-Lisflood LEM to a set of model parameters by applying the Morris method sensitivity analysis for two contrasting catchments. The test revealed that the model was most sensitive to the choice of the sediment transport formula for both catchments, and that each parameter influenced model behaviours differently, with model functions relating to internal geomorphic changes responding in a different way to those relating to the sediment yields from the catchment outlet. The model functions proved useful for providing a way of evaluating the sensitivity of LEMs in the absence of data and methods for an objective function approach.show moreshow less

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Metadaten
Author details:Christopher J. SkinnerORCiD, Tom J. CoulthardORCiD, Wolfgang SchwanghartORCiDGND, Marco J. Van De WielORCiD, Greg HancockORCiD
DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4873-2018
ISSN:1991-959X
ISSN:1991-9603
Title of parent work (English):Geoscientific model development : an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union
Publisher:Copernicus
Place of publishing:Göttingen
Publication type:Article
Language:English
Date of first publication:2018/12/06
Publication year:2018
Release date:2021/01/04
Volume:11
Issue:12
Number of pages:16
First page:4873
Last Page:4888
Funding institution:NERC Flooding from Intense Rainfall (FFIR) project, Susceptibility of Basins to Intense Rainfall and Flooding (SINATRA) project no. NE/K008668/1
Organizational units:Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Umweltwissenschaften und Geographie
DDC classification:5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften
Peer review:Referiert
Publishing method:Open Access / Gold Open-Access
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License (German):License LogoCC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International
External remark:Zweitveröffentlichung in der Schriftenreihe Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe ; 1084
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