Outbreak size distribution in stochastic epidemic models
- Motivated by recent epidemic outbreaks, including those of COVID-19, we solve the canonical problem of calculating the dynamics and likelihood of extensive outbreaks in a population within a large class of stochastic epidemic models with demographic noise, including the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and its general extensions. In the limit of large populations, we compute the probability distribution for all extensive outbreaks, including those that entail unusually large or small (extreme) proportions of the population infected. Our approach reveals that, unlike other well-known examples of rare events occurring in discrete-state stochastic systems, the statistics of extreme outbreaks emanate from a full continuum of Hamiltonian paths, each satisfying unique boundary conditions with a conserved probability flux.
Author details: | Jason HindesORCiD, Michael AssafORCiD, Ira B. SchwartzORCiD |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.128.078301 |
ISSN: | 0031-9007 |
ISSN: | 1079-7114 |
ISSN: | 1092-0145 |
Pubmed ID: | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35244445 |
Title of parent work (English): | Physical review letters |
Publisher: | American Physical Society |
Place of publishing: | College Park, Md. |
Publication type: | Article |
Language: | English |
Date of first publication: | 2022/02/15 |
Publication year: | 2022 |
Release date: | 2024/04/18 |
Volume: | 128 |
Issue: | 7 |
Article number: | 078301 |
Number of pages: | 6 |
Funding institution: | U.S. Naval Research Laboratory [N0001419WX00055]; Office of Naval; Research [N0001419WX01166, N0001419WX01322]; Israel Science Foundation; [531/20]; Humboldt Research Fellowship for Experienced Researchers of; the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation |
Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Physik und Astronomie |
DDC classification: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 53 Physik / 530 Physik |
Peer review: | Referiert |
License (German): | Keine öffentliche Lizenz: Unter Urheberrechtsschutz |