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Global sensitivity analysis of parameter uncertainty in landscape evolution models
- The evaluation and verification of landscape evolution models (LEMs) has long been limited by a lack of suitable observational data and statistical measures which can fully capture the complexity of landscape changes. This lack of data limits the use of objective function based evaluation prolific in other modelling fields, and restricts the application of sensitivity analyses in the models and the consequent assessment of model uncertainties. To overcome this deficiency, a novel model function approach has been developed, with each model function representing an aspect of model behaviour, which allows for the application of sensitivity analyses. The model function approach is used to assess the relative sensitivity of the CAESAR-Lisflood LEM to a set of model parameters by applying the Morris method sensitivity analysis for two contrasting catchments. The test revealed that the model was most sensitive to the choice of the sediment transport formula for both catchments, and that each parameter influenced model behaviours differently,The evaluation and verification of landscape evolution models (LEMs) has long been limited by a lack of suitable observational data and statistical measures which can fully capture the complexity of landscape changes. This lack of data limits the use of objective function based evaluation prolific in other modelling fields, and restricts the application of sensitivity analyses in the models and the consequent assessment of model uncertainties. To overcome this deficiency, a novel model function approach has been developed, with each model function representing an aspect of model behaviour, which allows for the application of sensitivity analyses. The model function approach is used to assess the relative sensitivity of the CAESAR-Lisflood LEM to a set of model parameters by applying the Morris method sensitivity analysis for two contrasting catchments. The test revealed that the model was most sensitive to the choice of the sediment transport formula for both catchments, and that each parameter influenced model behaviours differently, with model functions relating to internal geomorphic changes responding in a different way to those relating to the sediment yields from the catchment outlet. The model functions proved useful for providing a way of evaluating the sensitivity of LEMs in the absence of data and methods for an objective function approach.…
Author details: | Christopher J. SkinnerORCiD, Tom J. CoulthardORCiD, Wolfgang SchwanghartORCiDGND, Marco J. Van De WielORCiD, Greg HancockORCiD |
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URN: | urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-468013 |
DOI: | https://doi.org/10.25932/publishup-46801 |
ISSN: | 1866-8372 |
Title of parent work (German): | Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe |
Publication series (Volume number): | Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe (1084) |
Publication type: | Postprint |
Language: | English |
Date of first publication: | 2021/01/11 |
Publication year: | 2018 |
Publishing institution: | Universität Potsdam |
Release date: | 2021/01/11 |
Tag: | catchment; hydraulic models; mountain erosion; numerical models; periglacial engine; rainfall variability; river; scale; sediment transport; self-organized criticality |
Issue: | 1084 |
Number of pages: | 18 |
First page: | 4873 |
Last Page: | 4888 |
Source: | Geoscientific Model Development 11 (2018) 4873–4888 DOI: 10.5194/gmd-11-4873-2018 |
Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Umweltwissenschaften und Geographie |
DDC classification: | 9 Geschichte und Geografie / 91 Geografie, Reisen / 910 Geografie, Reisen |
Peer review: | Referiert |
Publishing method: | Open Access / Green Open-Access |
License (German): | CC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International |
External remark: | Bibliographieeintrag der Originalveröffentlichung/Quelle |