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Climate change under a scenario near 1.5 degrees C of global warming: monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise

  • We present climatic consequences of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3 alpha, which contains a statistical-dynamical atmosphere and a three-dimensional ocean model. We compare those with emulations of 19 state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) using MAGICC6. The RCPs are designed as standard scenarios for the forthcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report to span the full range of future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations pathways currently discussed. The lowest of the RCP scenarios, RCP3-PD, is projected in CLIMBER-3 alpha to imply a maximal warming by the middle of the 21st century slightly above 1.5 degrees C and a slow decline of temperatures thereafter, approaching today's level by 2500. We identify two mechanisms that slow down global cooling after GHG concentrations peak: The known inertia induced by mixing-related oceanic heat uptake; and a change in oceanic convection that enhances ocean heat loss in high latitudes, reducing the surface coolingWe present climatic consequences of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the coupled climate model CLIMBER-3 alpha, which contains a statistical-dynamical atmosphere and a three-dimensional ocean model. We compare those with emulations of 19 state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) using MAGICC6. The RCPs are designed as standard scenarios for the forthcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report to span the full range of future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations pathways currently discussed. The lowest of the RCP scenarios, RCP3-PD, is projected in CLIMBER-3 alpha to imply a maximal warming by the middle of the 21st century slightly above 1.5 degrees C and a slow decline of temperatures thereafter, approaching today's level by 2500. We identify two mechanisms that slow down global cooling after GHG concentrations peak: The known inertia induced by mixing-related oceanic heat uptake; and a change in oceanic convection that enhances ocean heat loss in high latitudes, reducing the surface cooling rate by almost 50%. Steric sea level rise under the RCP3-PD scenario continues for 200 years after the peak in surface air temperatures, stabilizing around 2250 at 30 cm. This contrasts with around 1.3 m of steric sea level rise by 2250, and 2 m by 2500, under the highest scenario, RCP8.5. Maximum oceanic warming at intermediate depth (300-800 m) is found to exceed that of the sea surface by the second half of the 21st century under RCP3-PD. This intermediate-depth warming persists for centuries even after surface temperatures have returned to present-day values, with potential consequences for marine ecosystems, oceanic methane hydrates, and ice-shelf stability. Due to an enhanced land-ocean temperature contrast, all scenarios yield an intensification of monsoon rainfall under global warming.zeige mehrzeige weniger

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Metadaten
Verfasserangaben:Jacob ScheweORCiD, Anders LevermannORCiDGND, Malte MeinshausenORCiD
DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2-25-2011
ISSN:2190-4979
ISSN:2190-4987
Titel des übergeordneten Werks (Englisch):Earth system dynamics
Verlag:Copernicus
Verlagsort:Göttingen
Publikationstyp:Wissenschaftlicher Artikel
Sprache:Englisch
Jahr der Erstveröffentlichung:2011
Erscheinungsjahr:2011
Datum der Freischaltung:26.03.2017
Band:2
Ausgabe:1
Seitenanzahl:11
Erste Seite:25
Letzte Seite:35
Fördernde Institution:Heinrich Boll Foundation; German National Academic Foundation; BMBF PROGRESS project [03IS2191B]; UFOPLAN project [FKZ 370841103]; German Federal Environment Agency
Organisationseinheiten:Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Physik und Astronomie
Peer Review:Referiert
Publikationsweg:Open Access
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