The progression of flood risk in southern Alberta since the 2013 flood
- After a century of semi-restricted floodplain development, Southern Alberta, Canada, was struck by the devastating 2013 Flood. Aging infrastructure and limited property-level floodproofing likely contributed to the $4-6 billion (CAD) losses. Following this catastrophe, Alberta has seen a revival in flood management, largely focused on structural protections. However, concurrent with the recent structural work was a 100,000+ increase in Calgary's population in the 5 years following the flood, leading to further densification of high-hazard areas. This study implements the novel Stochastic Object-based Flood damage Dynamic Assessment (SOFDA) model framework to quantify the progression of the direct-damage flood risk in a mature urban neighborhood after the 2013 Flood. Five years of remote-sensing data, property assessment records, and inundation simulations following the flood are used to construct the model. Results show that in these 5 years, vulnerability trends (like densification) have increased flood risk by 4%; however, recentAfter a century of semi-restricted floodplain development, Southern Alberta, Canada, was struck by the devastating 2013 Flood. Aging infrastructure and limited property-level floodproofing likely contributed to the $4-6 billion (CAD) losses. Following this catastrophe, Alberta has seen a revival in flood management, largely focused on structural protections. However, concurrent with the recent structural work was a 100,000+ increase in Calgary's population in the 5 years following the flood, leading to further densification of high-hazard areas. This study implements the novel Stochastic Object-based Flood damage Dynamic Assessment (SOFDA) model framework to quantify the progression of the direct-damage flood risk in a mature urban neighborhood after the 2013 Flood. Five years of remote-sensing data, property assessment records, and inundation simulations following the flood are used to construct the model. Results show that in these 5 years, vulnerability trends (like densification) have increased flood risk by 4%; however, recent structural mitigation projects have reduced overall flood risk by 47% for this case study. These results demonstrate that the flood management revival in Southern Alberta has largely been successful at reducing flood risk; however, the gains are under threat from continued development and densification absent additional floodproofing regulations.…
Author details: | Seth BryantORCiD, Evan DaviesORCiD, David Sol, Sandy Davis |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12811 |
ISSN: | 1753-318X |
Title of parent work (English): | Journal of flood risk management |
Publisher: | Wiley-Blackwell |
Place of publishing: | Oxford |
Publication type: | Article |
Language: | English |
Date of first publication: | 2022/06/21 |
Publication year: | 2022 |
Release date: | 2024/05/13 |
Tag: | Calgary; depth-damage functions; expected annual damages; flood risk; model; property level protection measures; risk analysis; risk dynamics |
Volume: | 15 |
Issue: | 3 |
Article number: | e12811 |
Number of pages: | 18 |
Funding institution: | IBI Group; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada;; City of Calgary |
Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Umweltwissenschaften und Geographie |
DDC classification: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften |
Peer review: | Referiert |
Publishing method: | Open Access / Gold Open-Access |
DOAJ gelistet | |
License (German): | CC-BY-NC-ND - Namensnennung, nicht kommerziell, keine Bearbeitungen 4.0 International |