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Tempting long-memory : on the interpretation of DFA results

  • We study the inference of long-range correlations by means of Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) and argue that power-law scaling of the fluctuation function and thus long-memory may not be assumed a priori but have to be established. This requires the investigation of the local slopes. We account for the variability characteristic for stochastic processes by calculating empirical confidence regions. Comparing a long-memory with a short-memory model shows that the inference of long-range correlations from a finite amount of data by means of DFA is not specific. We remark that scaling cannot be concluded from a straight line fit to the fluctuation function in a log-log representation. Furthermore, we show that a local slope larger than alpha=0.5 for large scales does not necessarily imply long memory. We also demonstrate, that it is not valid to conclude from a finite scaling region of the fluctuation function to an equivalent scaling region of the autocoffelation function. Finally, we review DFA results for the Prague temperatureWe study the inference of long-range correlations by means of Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) and argue that power-law scaling of the fluctuation function and thus long-memory may not be assumed a priori but have to be established. This requires the investigation of the local slopes. We account for the variability characteristic for stochastic processes by calculating empirical confidence regions. Comparing a long-memory with a short-memory model shows that the inference of long-range correlations from a finite amount of data by means of DFA is not specific. We remark that scaling cannot be concluded from a straight line fit to the fluctuation function in a log-log representation. Furthermore, we show that a local slope larger than alpha=0.5 for large scales does not necessarily imply long memory. We also demonstrate, that it is not valid to conclude from a finite scaling region of the fluctuation function to an equivalent scaling region of the autocoffelation function. Finally, we review DFA results for the Prague temperature data set and show that long-range correlations cannot not be concluded unambiguouslyzeige mehrzeige weniger

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Metadaten
Verfasserangaben:Douglas Maraun, H. W. Rust, Jens Timmer
ISSN:1023-5809
Publikationstyp:Wissenschaftlicher Artikel
Sprache:Englisch
Jahr der Erstveröffentlichung:2004
Erscheinungsjahr:2004
Datum der Freischaltung:24.03.2017
Quelle:Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics. - ISSN 1023-5809. - 11 (2004), 4, S. 495 - 503
Organisationseinheiten:Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Physik und Astronomie
Peer Review:Referiert
Publikationsweg:Open Access
Name der Einrichtung zum Zeitpunkt der Publikation:Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Physik
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