Meteorological and hydrological drought assessment in Lake Malawi and Shire River basins (1970-2013)
- The study assesses the variability and trends of both meteorological and hydrological droughts from 1970 to 2013 in Lake Malawi and Shire River basins using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation and evaporation index (SPEI) for meteorological droughts and the lake level change index (LLCI) for hydrological droughts. Trends and slopes in droughts and drought drivers are estimated using Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope, respectively. Results suggest that meteorological droughts are increasing due to a decrease in precipitation which is exacerbated by an increase in temperature (potential evapotranspiration). The hydrological system of Lake Malawi seems to have a >24-month memory towards meteorological conditions, since the 36-month SPEI can predict hydrological droughts 10 months in advance. The study has found the critical lake level that would trigger hydrological drought to be 474.1 m a.s.l. The increase in drought is a concern as this will have serious impacts on water resources and hydropowerThe study assesses the variability and trends of both meteorological and hydrological droughts from 1970 to 2013 in Lake Malawi and Shire River basins using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation and evaporation index (SPEI) for meteorological droughts and the lake level change index (LLCI) for hydrological droughts. Trends and slopes in droughts and drought drivers are estimated using Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope, respectively. Results suggest that meteorological droughts are increasing due to a decrease in precipitation which is exacerbated by an increase in temperature (potential evapotranspiration). The hydrological system of Lake Malawi seems to have a >24-month memory towards meteorological conditions, since the 36-month SPEI can predict hydrological droughts 10 months in advance. The study has found the critical lake level that would trigger hydrological drought to be 474.1 m a.s.l. The increase in drought is a concern as this will have serious impacts on water resources and hydropower supply in Malawi.…
| Author details: | Lucy Mphatso Ng'ombe MtilatilaORCiDGND, Axel BronstertORCiDGND, Gerd BürgerORCiDGND, Klaus Josef VormoorORCiDGND |
|---|---|
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2020.1837384 |
| ISSN: | 0262-6667 |
| ISSN: | 2150-3435 |
| Title of parent work (English): | Hydrological sciences journal = Journal des sciences hydrologiques |
| Publisher: | Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group |
| Place of publishing: | Abingdon |
| Publication type: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Date of first publication: | 2020/11/17 |
| Publication year: | 2020 |
| Release date: | 2023/01/06 |
| Tag: | Lake Malawi basin; SPEI; SPI; Shire River basin; hydrological drought; meteorological drought; trend analysis |
| Volume: | 65 |
| Issue: | 16 |
| Number of pages: | 15 |
| First page: | 2750 |
| Last Page: | 2764 |
| Funding institution: | Potsdam Graduate School at University of Potsdam (UP); Research and; Graduate School "Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World; (NatRiskChange)" at UP |
| Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Geowissenschaften |
| DDC classification: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften |
| Peer review: | Referiert |
| Publishing method: | Open Access / Hybrid Open-Access |
| License (German): |  CC-BY-NC-ND - Namensnennung, nicht kommerziell, keine Bearbeitungen 4.0 International |
