Stress inversion in a gelatin box
- Assessing volcanic hazard in regions of distributed volcanism is challenging because of the uncertain location of future vents. A statistical-mechanical strategy to forecast such locations was recently proposed: here, we further develop and test it with analog models. We stress a gelatin block laterally and with surface excavations, and observe air-filled crack trajectories. We use the observed surface arrivals to sample the distributions of parameters describing the stress state of the gelatin block, combining deterministic crack trajectory simulations with a Monte Carlo approach. While the individual stress parameters remain unconstrained, we effectively retrieve their ratio and successfully forecast the arrival points of subsequent cracks.
| Author details: | Lorenzo MantiloniORCiDGND, Timothy DavisORCiDGND, Ayleen Barbara Gaete RojasORCiDGND, Eleonora RivaltaORCiD |
|---|---|
| DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090407 |
| ISSN: | 0094-8276 |
| ISSN: | 1944-8007 |
| Title of parent work (English): | Geophysical research letters : GRL / American Geophysical Union |
| Subtitle (English): | testing eruptive vent location forecasts with analog models |
| Publisher: | American Geophysical Union |
| Place of publishing: | Washington |
| Publication type: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Date of first publication: | 2021/02/16 |
| Publication year: | 2021 |
| Release date: | 2023/11/21 |
| Tag: | analog experiment; calderas; continental rifts; dike; dike propagation; stress field; trajectories |
| Volume: | 48 |
| Issue: | 6 |
| Article number: | e2020GL090407 |
| Number of pages: | 11 |
| Funding institution: | DFG-ICDPGerman Research Foundation (DFG) [RI 2782/3-1]; [RI 2782/6-1-ZO 277/3-1] |
| Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Geowissenschaften |
| DDC classification: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften |
| Peer review: | Referiert |
| Publishing method: | Open Access / Hybrid Open-Access |
| License (German): |  CC-BY-NC - Namensnennung, nicht kommerziell 4.0 International |
