Seasonal landslide activity lags annual precipitation pattern in the Pacific Northwest
- Seasonal variations in landslide activity remain understudied compared to recent advances in landslide early warning at hourly to daily timescales. Here, we learn the seasonal pattern of monthly landslide activity in the Pacific Northwest from five heterogeneous landslide inventories with differing spatial and temporal coverage and reporting protocols combined in a Bayesian multi-level model. We find that landslide activity is distinctly seasonal, with credible increases in landslide intensity, inter-annual variability, and probability marking the onset of the landslide season in November. Peaks in landslide probability in January and intensity in February lag the annual peak in mean monthly precipitation and landslide activity is more variable in winter than in summer, when landslides are rare. For a given monthly rainfall, landslide intensity at the season peak in February is up to 10 times higher than at the onset in November, underlining the importance of antecedent seasonal hillslope conditions.
Author details: | Lisa LunaORCiDGND, Oliver KorupORCiDGND |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098506 |
ISSN: | 0094-8276 |
ISSN: | 1944-8007 |
Title of parent work (English): | Geophysical research letters |
Publisher: | Wiley |
Place of publishing: | Hoboken, NJ |
Publication type: | Article |
Language: | English |
Date of first publication: | 2022/09/28 |
Publication year: | 2022 |
Release date: | 2024/08/16 |
Tag: | Bayesian multi-level models; Pacific Northwest; landslide; logistic regression; negative binomial regression; seasonality |
Volume: | 49 |
Issue: | 18 |
Article number: | e2022GL098506 |
Number of pages: | 11 |
Funding institution: | DFG RTG "Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World"; Projekt DEAL |
Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Umweltwissenschaften und Geographie |
DDC classification: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 50 Naturwissenschaften / 500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik |
Peer review: | Referiert |
License (German): | ![]() |