500 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik
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Sustained glacier melt in the Himalayas has gradually spawned more than 5,000 glacier lakes that are dammed by potentially unstable moraines. When such dams break, glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) can cause catastrophic societal and geomorphic impacts. We present a robust probabilistic estimate of average GLOFs return periods in the Himalayan region, drawing on 5.4 billion simulations. We find that the 100-y outburst flood has an average volume of 33.5(+3.7)/(-3.7) x 10(6) m(3) (posterior mean and 95% highest density interval [HDI]) with a peak discharge of 15,600(+2.000)/(-1,800) m(3).S-1. Our estimated GLOF hazard is tied to the rate of historic lake outbursts and the number of present lakes, which both are highest in the Eastern Himalayas. There, the estimated 100-y GLOF discharge (similar to 14,500 m(3).s(-1)) is more than 3 times that of the adjacent Nyainqentanglha Mountains, and at least an order of magnitude higher than in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Western Himalayas. The GLOF hazard may increase in these regions that currently have large glaciers, but few lakes, if future projected ice loss generates more unstable moraine-dammed lakes than we recognize today. Flood peaks from GLOFs mostly attenuate within Himalayan headwaters, but can rival monsoon-fed discharges in major rivers hundreds to thousands of kilometers downstream. Projections of future hazard from meteorological floods need to account for the extreme runoffs during lake outbursts, given the increasing trends in population, infrastructure, and hydropower projects in Himalayan headwaters.
In recent years, urban and rural flash floods in Europe and abroad have gained considerable attention because of their sudden occurrence, severe material damages and even danger to life of inhabitants. This contribution addresses questions about possibly changing environmental conditions which might have altered the occurrence frequencies of such events and their consequences. We analyze the following major fields of environmental changes.
Altered high intensity rain storm conditions, as a consequence of regionalwarming; Possibly altered runoff generation conditions in response to high intensity rainfall events; Possibly altered runoff concentration conditions in response to the usage and management of the landscape, such as agricultural, forest practices or rural roads; Effects of engineering measures in the catchment, such as retention basins, check dams, culverts, or river and geomorphological engineering measures.
We take the flash-flood in Braunsbach, SW-Germany, as an example, where a particularly concise flash flood event occurred at the end of May 2016. This extreme cascading natural event led to immense damage in this particular village. The event is retrospectively analyzed with regard to meteorology, hydrology, geomorphology and damage to obtain a quantitative assessment of the processes and their development.
The results show that it was a very rare rainfall event with extreme intensities, which in combination with catchment properties and altered environmental conditions led to extreme runoff, extreme debris flow and immense damages. Due to the complex and interacting processes, no single flood cause can be identified, since only the interplay of those led to such an event. We have shown that environmental changes are important, but-at least for this case study-even natural weather and hydrologic conditions would still have resulted in an extreme flash flood event.
The first step towards assessing hazards in seismically active regions involves mapping capable faults and estimating their recurrence times. While the mapping of active faults is commonly based on distinct geologic and geomorphic features evident at the surface, mapping blind seismogenic faults is complicated by the absence of on-fault diagnostic features. Here we investigated the Pichilemu Fault in coastal Chile, unknown until it generated a Mw 7.0 earthquake in 2010. The lack of evident surface faulting suggests activity along a partly-hidden blind fault. We used off-fault deformed marine terraces to estimate a fault-slip rate of 0.52 ± 0.04 m/ka, which, when integrated with satellite geodesy suggests a 2.12 ± 0.2 ka recurrence time for Mw~7.0 normal-faulting earthquakes. We propose that extension in the Pichilemu region is associated with stress changes during megathrust earthquakes and accommodated by sporadic slip during upper-plate earthquakes, which has implications for assessing the seismic potential of cryptic faults along convergent margins and elsewhere.
The first step towards assessing hazards in seismically active regions involves mapping capable faults and estimating their recurrence times. While the mapping of active faults is commonly based on distinct geologic and geomorphic features evident at the surface, mapping blind seismogenic faults is complicated by the absence of on-fault diagnostic features. Here we investigated the Pichilemu Fault in coastal Chile, unknown until it generated a Mw 7.0 earthquake in 2010. The lack of evident surface faulting suggests activity along a partly-hidden blind fault. We used off-fault deformed marine terraces to estimate a fault-slip rate of 0.52 ± 0.04 m/ka, which, when integrated with satellite geodesy suggests a 2.12 ± 0.2 ka recurrence time for Mw~7.0 normal-faulting earthquakes. We propose that extension in the Pichilemu region is associated with stress changes during megathrust earthquakes and accommodated by sporadic slip during upper-plate earthquakes, which has implications for assessing the seismic potential of cryptic faults along convergent margins and elsewhere.
Signaling pathways in biological systems rely on specific interactions between multiple biomolecules. Fluorescence fluctuation spectroscopy provides a powerful toolbox to quantify such interactions directly in living cells. Cross-correlation analysis of spectrally separated fluctuations provides information about intermolecular interactions but is usually limited to two fluorophore species. Here, we present scanning fluorescence spectral correlation spectroscopy (SFSCS), a versatile approach that can be implemented on commercial confocal microscopes, allowing the investigation of interactions between multiple protein species at the plasma membrane. We demonstrate that SFSCS enables cross-talk-free cross-correlation, diffusion, and oligomerization analysis of up to four protein species labeled with strongly overlapping fluorophores. As an example, we investigate the interactions of influenza A virus (IAV) matrix protein 2 with two cellular host factors simultaneously. We furthermore apply raster spectral image correlation spectroscopy for the simultaneous analysis of up to four species and determine the stoichiometry of ternary IAV polymerase complexes in the cell nucleus.
Phenotypic plasticity can increase individual fitness when environmental conditions change over time. Inducible defences are a striking example, allowing species to react to fluctuating predation pressure by only expressing their costly defended phenotype under high predation risk. Previous theoretical investigations have focused on how this affects predator–prey dynamics, but the impact on competitive outcomes and broader community dynamics has received less attention. Here we use a small food web model, consisting of two competing plastic autotrophic species exploited by a shared consumer, to study how the speed of inducible defences across three trade-off constellations affects autotroph coexistence, biomasses across trophic levels, and temporal variability. Contrary to the intuitive idea that faster adaptation increases autotroph fitness, we found that higher switching rates reduced individual fitness as it consistently provoked more maladaptive switching towards undefended phenotypes under high predation pressure. This had an unexpected positive impact on the consumer, increasing consumer biomass and lowering total autotroph biomass. Additionally, maladaptive switching strongly reduced autotroph coexistence through an emerging source-sink dynamic between defended and undefended phenotypes. The striking impact of maladaptive switching on species and food web dynamics indicates that this mechanism may be of more critical importance than previously recognized.
Phenotypic plasticity can increase individual fitness when environmental conditions change over time. Inducible defences are a striking example, allowing species to react to fluctuating predation pressure by only expressing their costly defended phenotype under high predation risk. Previous theoretical investigations have focused on how this affects predator–prey dynamics, but the impact on competitive outcomes and broader community dynamics has received less attention. Here we use a small food web model, consisting of two competing plastic autotrophic species exploited by a shared consumer, to study how the speed of inducible defences across three trade-off constellations affects autotroph coexistence, biomasses across trophic levels, and temporal variability. Contrary to the intuitive idea that faster adaptation increases autotroph fitness, we found that higher switching rates reduced individual fitness as it consistently provoked more maladaptive switching towards undefended phenotypes under high predation pressure. This had an unexpected positive impact on the consumer, increasing consumer biomass and lowering total autotroph biomass. Additionally, maladaptive switching strongly reduced autotroph coexistence through an emerging source-sink dynamic between defended and undefended phenotypes. The striking impact of maladaptive switching on species and food web dynamics indicates that this mechanism may be of more critical importance than previously recognized.
Environmental pollution by microplastics has become a severe problem in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and, according to actual prognoses, problems will further increase in the future. Therefore, assessing and quantifying the risk for the biota is crucial. Standardized short-term toxicological procedures as well as methods quantifying potential toxic effects over the whole life span of an animal are required. We studied the effect of the microplastic polystyrene on the survival and reproduction of a common freshwater invertebrate, the rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus, at different timescales. We used pristine polystyrene spheres of 1, 3, and 6 µm diameter and fed them to the animals together with food algae in different ratios ranging from 0 to 50% nonfood particles. As a particle control, we used silica to distinguish between a pure particle effect and a plastic effect. After 24 h, no toxic effect was found, neither with polystyrene nor with silica. After 96 h, a toxic effect was detectable for both particle types. The size of the particles played a negligible role. Studying the long-term effect by using life table experiments, we found a reduced reproduction when the animals were fed with 3 µm spheres together with similar-sized food algae. We conclude that the fitness reduction is mainly driven by the dilution of food by the nonfood particles rather than by a direct toxic effect.
Reflecting in written form on one's teaching enactments has been considered a facilitator for teachers' professional growth in university-based preservice teacher education. Writing a structured reflection can be facilitated through external feedback. However, researchers noted that feedback in preservice teacher education often relies on holistic, rather than more content-based, analytic feedback because educators oftentimes lack resources (e.g., time) to provide more analytic feedback. To overcome this impediment to feedback for written reflection, advances in computer technology can be of use. Hence, this study sought to utilize techniques of natural language processing and machine learning to train a computer-based classifier that classifies preservice physics teachers' written reflections on their teaching enactments in a German university teacher education program. To do so, a reflection model was adapted to physics education. It was then tested to what extent the computer-based classifier could accurately classify the elements of the reflection model in segments of preservice physics teachers' written reflections. Multinomial logistic regression using word count as a predictor was found to yield acceptable average human-computer agreement (F1-score on held-out test dataset of 0.56) so that it might fuel further development towards an automated feedback tool that supplements existing holistic feedback for written reflections with data-based, analytic feedback.
People perceive sentences more favourably after hearing or reading them many times. A prominent approach in linguistic theory argues that these types of exposure effects (satiation effects) show direct evidence of a generative approach to linguistic knowledge: only some sentences improve under repeated exposure, and which sentences do improve can be predicted by a model of linguistic competence that yields natural syntactic classes. However, replications of the original findings have been inconsistent, and it remains unclear whether satiation effects can be reliably induced in an experimental setting at all. Here we report four findings regarding satiation effects in wh-questions across German and English. First, the effects pertain to zone of well-formedness rather than syntactic class: all intermediate ratings, including calibrated fillers, increase at the beginning of the experimental session regardless of syntactic construction. Second, though there is satiation, ratings asymptote below maximum acceptability. Third, these effects are consistent across judgments of superiority effects in English and German. Fourth, wh-questions appear to show similar profiles in English and German, despite these languages being traditionally considered to differ strongly in whether they show effects on movement: violations of the superiority condition can be modulated to a similar degree in both languages by manipulating subject-object initiality and animacy congruency of the wh-phrase. We improve on classic satiation methods by distinguishing between two crucial tests, namely whether exposure selectively targets certain grammatical constructions or whether there is a general repeated exposure effect. We conclude that exposure effects can be reliably induced in rating experiments but exposure does not appear to selectively target certain grammatical constructions. Instead, they appear to be a phenomenon of intermediate gradient judgments.