Estimating direct economic impacts of severe flood events in Turkey (2015-2020)
- Over the past decades, floods have caused significant financial losses in Turkey, amounting to US$ 800 million between 1960 and 2014. With the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (SFDRR), it is aimed to reduce the direct economic loss from disasters in relation to the global gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030. Accordingly, a methodology based on experiences from developing countries was proposed by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) to estimate direct economic losses on the macro-scale. Since Turkey also signed the SFDRR, we aimed to adapt, validate and apply the loss estimation model proposed by the UNDRR in Turkey for the first time. To do so, the well-documented flood event in Mersin of 2016 was used to calibrate the damage ratios for the agricultural, commercial and residential sectors, as well as educational facilities. Case studies between 2015 and 2020 with documented losses were further used to validate the model. Finally, model applications provided initial loss estimates forOver the past decades, floods have caused significant financial losses in Turkey, amounting to US$ 800 million between 1960 and 2014. With the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (SFDRR), it is aimed to reduce the direct economic loss from disasters in relation to the global gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030. Accordingly, a methodology based on experiences from developing countries was proposed by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) to estimate direct economic losses on the macro-scale. Since Turkey also signed the SFDRR, we aimed to adapt, validate and apply the loss estimation model proposed by the UNDRR in Turkey for the first time. To do so, the well-documented flood event in Mersin of 2016 was used to calibrate the damage ratios for the agricultural, commercial and residential sectors, as well as educational facilities. Case studies between 2015 and 2020 with documented losses were further used to validate the model. Finally, model applications provided initial loss estimates for floods occurred recently in Turkey. Despite the limited event documentation for each sector, the calibrated model yielded good results when compared to documented losses. Thus, by implementing the UNDRR method, this study provides an approach to estimate the direct economic losses in Turkey on the macro-scale, which can be used to fill gaps in event databases, support the coordination of financial aid after flood events and facilitate monitoring of the progress toward and achievement of Global Target C of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030.…
Author details: | Gamze KoçORCiDGND, Stephanie NathoORCiDGND, Annegret ThiekenORCiDGND |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102222 |
ISSN: | 2212-4209 |
Title of parent work (English): | International journal of disaster risk reduction : IJDRR |
Publisher: | Elsevier |
Place of publishing: | Amsterdam |
Publication type: | Article |
Language: | English |
Date of first publication: | 2021/04/13 |
Publication year: | 2021 |
Release date: | 2023/02/01 |
Tag: | Direct economic loss; Event documentation; Flood; Loss; Turkey; UNISDR; modelling |
Volume: | 58 |
Article number: | 102222 |
Number of pages: | 16 |
Funding institution: | European Union (EU) Marie Curie Actions program "Initial Training Networks (ITN)" under grant agreement FP7-PEOPLE-2013ITN [607996] |
Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Umweltwissenschaften und Geographie |
DDC classification: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften |
Peer review: | Referiert |