Bruno Merz, Christian Kuhlicke, Michael Kunz, Massimiliano Pittore, Andrey Babeyko, David N. Bresch, Daniela I. Domeisen, Frauke Feser, Inga Koszalka, Heidi Kreibich, Florian Pantillon, Stefano Parolai, Joaquim G. Pinto, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Eleonora Rivalta, Kai Schröter, Karen Strehlow, Ralf Weisse, Andreas Wurpts
- Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties, and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location, and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services, or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a twofold advantage: It would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multihazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state of the art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact-based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges andForecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties, and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location, and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services, or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a twofold advantage: It would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multihazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state of the art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact-based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe.…
MetadatenAuthor details: | Bruno MerzORCiDGND, Christian KuhlickeORCiDGND, Michael KunzORCiD, Massimiliano PittoreORCiD, Andrey BabeykoORCiD, David N. BreschORCiD, Daniela I. DomeisenORCiD, Frauke FeserORCiD, Inga KoszalkaORCiD, Heidi KreibichORCiDGND, Florian PantillonORCiD, Stefano ParolaiORCiD, Joaquim G. PintoORCiD, Heinz Jürgen PungeORCiD, Eleonora RivaltaORCiD, Kai SchröterORCiDGND, Karen StrehlowORCiD, Ralf WeisseORCiD, Andreas WurptsORCiD |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000704 |
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ISSN: | 8755-1209 |
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ISSN: | 1944-9208 |
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Title of parent work (English): | Reviews of geophysics |
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Publisher: | American Geophysical Union |
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Place of publishing: | Washington |
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Publication type: | Article |
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Language: | English |
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Date of first publication: | 2020/08/24 |
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Publication year: | 2020 |
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Release date: | 2022/10/04 |
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Tag: | early warning; impact forecasting; natural hazards |
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Volume: | 58 |
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Issue: | 4 |
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Article number: | e2020RG000704 |
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Number of pages: | 52 |
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Funding institution: | German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)Federal Ministry; of Education & Research (BMBF) [29599 03F0778B, 03G0876]; Swiss National; Science FoundationSwiss National Science Foundation (SNSF)European; Commission [PP00P2 170523]; AXA Research Fund; Transregional; Collaborative Research Center - German Science Foundation (DFG)German; Research Foundation (DFG) [SFB/TRR 165]; European Union's Horizon 2020; research and innovation program [700099] |
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Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Geowissenschaften |
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DDC classification: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften |
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Peer review: | Referiert |
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Publishing method: | Open Access / Hybrid Open-Access |
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License (German): | CC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International |
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