Complex networks for tracking extreme rainfall during typhoons
- Reconciling the paths of extreme rainfall with those of typhoons remains difficult despite advanced forecasting techniques. We use complex networks defined by a nonlinear synchronization measure termed event synchronization to track extreme rainfall over the Japanese islands. Directed networks objectively record patterns of heavy rain brought by frontal storms and typhoons but mask out contributions of local convective storms. We propose a radial rank method to show that paths of extreme rainfall in the typhoon season (August-November, ASON) follow the overall southwest-northeast motion of typhoons and mean rainfall gradient of Japan. The associated eye-of-the-typhoon tracks deviate notably and may thus distort estimates of heavy typhoon rainfall. We mainly found that the lower spread of rainfall tracks in ASON may enable better hindcasting than for westerly-fed frontal storms in June and July.
Author details: | Ugur OzturkORCiDGND, Norbert MarwanORCiDGND, Oliver KorupORCiDGND, H. Saito, Ankit AgarwaORCiD, M. J. Grossman, M. Zaiki, Jürgen KurthsORCiDGND |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5004480 |
ISSN: | 1054-1500 |
ISSN: | 1089-7682 |
Pubmed ID: | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30070498 |
Title of parent work (English): | Chaos : an interdisciplinary journal of nonlinear science |
Publisher: | American Institute of Physics |
Place of publishing: | Melville |
Publication type: | Article |
Language: | English |
Year of first publication: | 2018 |
Publication year: | 2018 |
Release date: | 2021/11/08 |
Volume: | 28 |
Issue: | 7 |
Number of pages: | 8 |
Funding institution: | Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) within the Research Training Group at the University of Potsdam [DFG GRK 2043/1] |
Organizational units: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Physik und Astronomie |
DDC classification: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 53 Physik / 530 Physik |
Peer review: | Referiert |
Publishing method: | Open Access / Green Open-Access |