Winter precipitation forecast in the European and mediterranean regions using cluster analysis
- The European climate is changing under global warming, and especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as a hot spot for climate change with climate models projecting a reduction in winter rainfall and a very pronounced increase in summertime heat waves. These trends are already detectable over the historic period. Hence, it is beneficial to forecast seasonal droughts well in advance so that water managers and stakeholders can prepare to mitigate deleterious impacts. We developed a new cluster-based empirical forecast method to predict precipitation anomalies in winter. This algorithm considers not only the strength but also the pattern of the precursors. We compare our algorithm with dynamic forecast models and a canonical correlation analysis-based prediction method demonstrating that our prediction method performs better in terms of time and pattern correlation in the Mediterranean and European regions.
Verfasserangaben: | Sonja Juliana TotzORCiDGND, Eli TzipermanORCiD, Dim CoumouORCiDGND, Karl PfeifferORCiD, Judah CohenORCiD |
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DOI: | https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL075674 |
ISSN: | 0094-8276 |
ISSN: | 1944-8007 |
Titel des übergeordneten Werks (Englisch): | Geophysical research letters |
Verlag: | American Geophysical Union |
Verlagsort: | Washington |
Publikationstyp: | Wissenschaftlicher Artikel |
Sprache: | Englisch |
Datum der Erstveröffentlichung: | 21.11.2018 |
Erscheinungsjahr: | 2017 |
Datum der Freischaltung: | 13.10.2021 |
Freies Schlagwort / Tag: | cluster analysis; precipitation anomaly; seasonal forecast |
Band: | 44 |
Seitenanzahl: | 9 |
Erste Seite: | 12418 |
Letzte Seite: | 12426 |
Fördernde Institution: | German Federal Ministry of Education and Research [01LN1304A]; National Science Foundation [AGS-1303647, PLR-1504361]; National Science Foundation climate dynamics program [AGS-1622985]; National Science Foundation Large-Scale and Climate Dynamics Program [AGS-1303647, AGS-1303604]; National Science Foundation Division of Polar Programs [PLR-1504361] |
Organisationseinheiten: | Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Institut für Geowissenschaften |
DDC-Klassifikation: | 5 Naturwissenschaften und Mathematik / 55 Geowissenschaften, Geologie / 550 Geowissenschaften |
Peer Review: | Referiert |
Publikationsweg: | Open Access / Bronze Open-Access |