Scenarios in the strategy process

  • This paper challenges the solely rational view of the scenario technique as a strategy and foresight tool designed to cope with uncertainty by considering multiple possible future states. The paper employs an affordance-based view that allows for the identification and structuring of hidden, emergent attributes of the scenario technique beyond the intended ones. The suggested framework distinguishes between affordances (1) that are intended by the organization and relate to its goals, (2) that emergently generate organizational benefits, and (3) that do not relate to organizational but individual interests. Also, constraints in the use of scenarios are discussed. Affordance theory’s specific lens shows that the emergence of such attributes depends on the users’ specific intentions.

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Author details:Victor TiberiusORCiDGND
Title of parent work (English):European Journal of Futures Research
Subtitle (English):a framework of affordances and constraints
Place of publishing:Heidelberg
Publication type:Article
Date of first publication:2019/12/30
Publication year:2019
Release date:2020/01/20
Tag:Affordances; Management; Organizations; Scenario planning; Strategic foresight
Number of pages:14
Funding institution:Universität Potsdam
Funding number:PA 2019_129
Organizational units:Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Fakultät / Wirtschaftswissenschaften
DDC classification:3 Sozialwissenschaften / 33 Wirtschaft / 330 Wirtschaft
Peer review:Referiert
Grantor:Publikationsfonds der Universität Potsdam
Publishing method:Open Access
License (German):License LogoCC-BY - Namensnennung 4.0 International
External remark:Zweitveröffentlichung in der Schriftenreihe Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe ; 119
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