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Due to its relevance for global climate, the realistic representation of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in ocean models is a key task. In recent years, two paradigms have evolved around what are its driving mechanisms: diapycnal mixing and Southern Ocean winds. This work aims at clarifying what sets the strength of the Atlantic overturning components in an ocean general circulation model and discusses the role of spatially inhomogeneous mixing, numerical diffusion and winds. Furthermore, the relation of the AMOC with a key quantity, the meridional pressure difference is analyzed. Due to the application of a very low diffusive tracer advection scheme, a realistic Atlantic overturning circulation can be obtained that is purely wind driven. On top of the winddriven circulation, changes of density gradients are caused by increasing the parameterized eddy diffusion in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean. The linear relation between the maximum of the Atlantic overturning and the meridional pressure difference found in previous studies is confirmed and it is shown to be due to one significant pressure gradient between the average pressure over high latitude deep water formation regions and a relatively uniform pressure between 30°N and 30°S, which can directly be related to a zonal flow through geostrophy. Under constant Southern Ocean windstress forcing, a South Atlantic outflow in the range of 6-16 Sv is obtained for a large variety of experiments. Overall, the circulation is winddriven but its strength not uniquely determined by the Southern Ocean windstress. The scaling of the Atlantic overturning components is linear with the background vertical diffusivity, not confirming the 2/3 power law for one-hemisphere models without wind forcing. The pycnocline depth is constant in the coarse resolution model with large vertical grid extends. It suggests the ocean model operates like the Stommel box model with a linear relation of the pressure difference and fixed vertical scale for the volume transport. However, this seems only valid for vertical diffusivities smaller 0.4 cm²/s, when the dominant upwelling within the Atlantic occurs along the boundaries. For larger vertical diffusivities, a significant amount of interior upwelling occurs. It is further shown that any localized vertical mixing in the deep to bottom ocean cannot drive an Atlantic overturning. However, enhanced boundary mixing at thermocline depths is potentially important. The numerical diffusion is shown to have a large impact on the representation of the Atlantic overturning in the model. While the horizontal numerical diffusion tends to destabilize the Atlantic overturning the verital numerical diffusion denotes an amplifying mechanism.
It is known that the efficiency of organic light-emitting devices (OLEDs) is strongly influenced by the ’quality′ of the thin films [1]. On the basis of this conviction, the work presented in this thesis aimed to obtain a better understanding of the structure of organic thin films of general interest in the field of organic light emitting devices by using scanning probe microscopies (SPMs). A not yet reported crystal structure of quaterthiophene film grown on potassium hydrogen (KHP) is determined by optical measurements, a simulation program, diffraction at both normal incidence and grazing angle and AFM. The crystal cell is triclinic with parameters a = 0.721 nm, b = 0.632 nm, c = 0.956 nm and a = 91°, b = 91.4°, g = 91° [2]. The morphologies of four organic thin films deposited on gold are characterized by ultra high vacuum scanning tunneling microscopy (UHV-STM). Terraces in an hexanethiol monolayer, lamellar structures in an azobenzenethiol monolayer, rods in a a poly(paraphenylenevinylene) oligomer film and a granular morphology in an oxadiazole film are shown. The topographies of a series of poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene)/poly(styrenesulfonate) (PEDOT/PSS) films deposited on indium-tin oxide (ITO) and gold obtained from dispersions with PEDOT:PSS weight ratios of 1:20, 1:6 and 1:1 are investigated by AFM. It is demonstrated that the films show the same topography on gold and on ITO. It is shown that the PEDOT films eliminate the spike features of ITO. It is reported that PEDOT 1:20 and 1:6 appear indistinguishable between each other but different from PEDOT 1:1 (the most conductive). Coupling STM and I-d measurements, a not yet reported structural model of PEDOT 1:1 on gold is obtained [3]. In this model the surface presents grains and the bulk particles/domains rich in PEDOT embedded in a PEDOT-poor matrix. The equation of conductivity is derived. A STM investigation of four PEDOT films deposited on ITO obtained from dispersions with the same PEDOT:PSS weight ratio of 1:1 is carried out [4]. The films differ either for the presence of sorbitol or for a different synthetic route (and they present different conductivities). For the first time a quantitative and qualitative correlation between the nanometer-scale morphology of PEDOT films with and without sorbitol and their conductivity is established.
The topic of synchronization forms a link between nonlinear dynamics and neuroscience. On the one hand, neurobiological research has shown that the synchronization of neuronal activity is an essential aspect of the working principle of the brain. On the other hand, recent advances in the physical theory have led to the discovery of the phenomenon of phase synchronization. A method of data analysis that is motivated by this finding - phase synchronization analysis - has already been successfully applied to empirical data. The present doctoral thesis ties up to these converging lines of research. Its subject are methodical contributions to the further development of phase synchronization analysis, as well as its application to event-related potentials, a form of EEG data that is especially important in the cognitive sciences. The methodical contributions of this work consist firstly in a number of specialized statistical tests for a difference in the synchronization strength in two different states of a system of two oscillators. Secondly, in regard of the many-channel character of EEG data an approach to multivariate phase synchronization analysis is presented. For the empirical investigation of neuronal synchronization a classic experiment on language processing was replicated, comparing the effect of a semantic violation in a sentence context with that of the manipulation of physical stimulus properties (font color). Here phase synchronization analysis detects a decrease of global synchronization for the semantic violation as well as an increase for the physical manipulation. In the latter case, by means of the multivariate analysis the global synchronization effect can be traced back to an interaction of symmetrically located brain areas.<BR> The findings presented show that the method of phase synchronization analysis motivated by physics is able to provide a relevant contribution to the investigation of event-related potentials in the cognitive sciences.
In this thesis the magnetohydrodynamic jet formation and the effects of magnetic diffusion on the formation of axisymmetric protostellar jets have been investigated in three different simulation sets. The time-dependent numerical simulations have been performed, using the magnetohydrodynamic ZEUS-3D code.
Robotic telescopes & Doppler imaging : measuring differential rotation on long-period active stars
(2004)
The sun shows a wide variety of magnetic-activity related phenomena. The magnetic field responsible for this is generated by a dynamo process which is believed to operate in the tachocline, which is located at the bottom of the convection zone. This dynamo is driven in part by differential rotation and in part by magnetic turbulences in the convection zone. The surface differential rotation, one key ingredient of dynamo theory, can be measured by tracing sunspot positions.To extend the parameter space for dynamo theories, one can extend these measurements to other stars than the sun. The primary obstacle in this endeavor is the lack of resolved surface images on other stars. This can be overcome by the Doppler imaging technique, which uses the rotation-induced Doppler-broadening of spectral lines to compute the surface distribution of a physical parameter like temperature. To obtain the surface image of a star, high-resolution spectroscopic observations, evenly distributed over one stellar rotation period are needed. This turns out to be quite complicated for long period stars. The upcoming robotic observatory STELLA addresses this problem with a dedicated scheduling routine, which is tailored for Doppler imaging targets. This will make observations for Doppler imaging not only easier, but also more efficient.As a preview of what can be done with STELLA, we present results of a Doppler imaging study of seven stars, all of which show evidence for differential rotation, but unfortunately the errors are of the same order of magnitude as the measurements due to unsatisfactory data quality, something that will not happen on STELLA. Both, cross-correlation analysis and the sheared image technique where used to double check the results if possible. For four of these stars, weak anti-solar differential rotation was found in a sense that the pole rotates faster than the equator, for the other three stars weak differential rotation in the same direction as on the sun was found.Finally, these new measurements along with other published measurements of differential rotation using Doppler imaging, were analyzed for correlations with stellar evolution, binarity, and rotation period. The total sample of stars show a significant correlation with rotation period, but if separated into antisolar and solar type behavior, only the subsample showing anti-solar differential rotation shows this correlation. Additionally, there is evidence for binary stars showing less differential rotation as single stars, as is suggested by theory. All other parameter combinations fail to deliver any results due to the still small sample of stars available.
Adherent cells constantly collect information about the mechanical properties of their extracellular environment by actively pulling on it through cell-matrix contacts, which act as mechanosensors. In recent years, the sophisticated use of elastic substrates has shown that cells respond very sensitively to changes in effective stiffness in their environment, which results in a reorganization of the cytoskeleton in response to mechanical input. We develop a theoretical model to predict cellular self-organization in soft materials on a coarse grained level. Although cell organization in principle results from complex regulatory events inside the cell, the typical response to mechanical input seems to be a simple preference for large effective stiffness, possibly because force is more efficiently generated in a stiffer environment. The term effective stiffness comprises effects of both rigidity and prestrain in the environment. This observation can be turned into an optimization principle in elasticity theory. By specifying the cellular probing force pattern and by modeling the environment as a linear elastic medium, one can predict preferred cell orientation and position. Various examples for cell organization, which are of large practical interest, are considered theoretically: cells in external strain fields and cells close to boundaries or interfaces for different sample geometries and boundary conditions. For this purpose the elastic equations are solved exactly for an infinite space, an elastic half space and the elastic sphere. The predictions of the model are in excellent agreement with experiments for fibroblast cells, both on elastic substrates and in hydrogels. Mechanically active cells like fibroblasts could also interact elastically with each other. We calculate the optimal structures on elastic substrates as a function of material properties, cell density and the geometry of cell positioning, respectively, that allows each cell to maximize the effective stiffness in its environment due to the traction of all the other cells. Finally, we apply Monte Carlo simulations to study the effect of noise on cellular structure formation. The model not only contributes to a better understanding of many physiological situations. In the future it could also be used for biomedical applications to optimize protocols for artificial tissues with respect to sample geometry, boundary condition, material properties or cell density.
This work deals with the connection between two basic phenomena in Nonlinear Dynamics: synchronization of chaotic systems and recurrences in phase space. Synchronization takes place when two or more systems adapt (synchronize) some characteristic of their respective motions, due to an interaction between the systems or to a common external forcing. The appearence of synchronized dynamics in chaotic systems is rather universal but not trivial. In some sense, the possibility that two chaotic systems synchronize is counterintuitive: chaotic systems are characterized by the sensitivity ti different initial conditions. Hence, two identical chaotic systems starting at two slightly different initial conditions evolve in a different manner, and after a certain time, they become uncorrelated. Therefore, at a first glance, it does not seem to be plausible that two chaotic systems are able to synchronize. But as we will see later, synchronization of chaotic systems has been demonstrated. On one hand it is important to investigate the conditions under which synchronization of chaotic systems occurs, and on the other hand, to develop tests for the detection of synchronization. In this work, I have concentrated on the second task for the cases of phase synchronization (PS) and generalized synchronization (GS). Several measures have been proposed so far for the detection of PS and GS. However, difficulties arise with the detection of synchronization in systems subjected to rather large amounts of noise and/or instationarities, which are common when analyzing experimental data. The new measures proposed in the course of this thesis are rather robust with respect to these effects. They hence allow to be applied to data, which have evaded synchronization analysis so far. The proposed tests for synchronization in this work are based on the fundamental property of recurrences in phase space.
Understanding stars, their magnetic activity phenomena and the underlying dynamo action is the foundation for understanding 'life, the universe and everything' - as stellar magnetic fields play a fundamental role for star and planet formation and for the terrestrial atmosphere and climate. Starspots are the fingerprints of magnetic field lines and thereby the most important sign of activity in a star's photosphere. However, they cannot be observed directly, as it is not (yet) possible to spacially resolve the surfaces of even the nearest neighbouring stars. Therefore, an indirect approach called 'Doppler imaging' is applied, which allows to reconstruct the surface spot distribution on rapidly rotating, active stars. In this work, data from 11 years of continuous spectroscopic observations of the active binary star EI Eridani are reduced and analysed. 34 Doppler maps are obtained and the problem of how to parameterise the information content of Doppler maps is discussed. Three approaches for parameter extraction are introduced and applied to all maps: average temperature, separated for several latitude bands; fractional spottedness; and, for the analysis of structural temperature distribution, longitudinal and latitudinal spot-occurrence functions. The resulting values do not show a distinct correlation with the proposed activity cycle as seen from photometric long-term observations, thereby suggesting that the photometric activity cycle is not accompanied by a spot cycle as seen on the Sun. The general morphology of the spot pattern on EI Eri remains persistent for the whole period of 11 years. In addition, a detailed parameter study is performed. Improved orbital parameters suggest that EI Eri might be complemented by a third star in a wide orbit of about 19 years. Preliminary differential rotation measurements are carried out, indicating an anti-solar orientation.
In this thesis, dynamical structures and manifolds in closed chaotic flows will be investigated. The knowledge about the dynamical structures (and manifolds) of a system is of importance, since they provide us first information about the dynamics of the system - means, with their help we are able to characterize the flow and maybe even to forecast it`s dynamics. The visualization of such structures in closed chaotic flows is a difficult and often long-lasting process. Here, the so-called 'Leaking-method' will be introduced, in examples of simple mathematical maps as the baker- or sine-map, with which we are able to visualize subsets of the manifolds of the system`s chaotic saddle. Comparisons between the visualized manifolds and structures traced out by chemical or biological reactions superimposed on the same flow will be done in the example of a kinematic model of the Gulf Stream. It will be shown that with the help of the leaking method dynamical structures can be also visualized in environmental systems. In the example of a realistic model of the Mediterranean Sea, the leaking method will be extended to the 'exchange-method'. The exchange method allows us to characterize transport between two regions, to visualize transport routes and their exchange sets and to calculate the exchange times. Exchange times and sets will be shown and calculated for a northern and southern region in the western basin of the Mediterranean Sea. Furthermore, mixing properties in the Earth mantle will be characterized and geometrical properties of manifolds in a 3dimensional mathematical model (ABC map) will be investigated.
Recurrence plots, a rather promising tool of data analysis, have been introduced by Eckman et al. in 1987. They visualise recurrences in phase space and give an overview about the system's dynamics. Two features have made the method rather popular. Firstly they are rather simple to compute and secondly they are putatively easy to interpret. However, the straightforward interpretation of recurrence plots for some systems yields rather surprising results. For example indications of low dimensional chaos have been reported for stock marked data, based on recurrence plots. In this work we exploit recurrences or ``naturally occurring analogues'' as they were termed by E. Lorenz, to obtain three key results. One of which is that the most striking structures which are found in recurrence plots are hinged to the correlation entropy and the correlation dimension of the underlying system. Even though an eventual embedding changes the structures in recurrence plots considerably these dynamical invariants can be estimated independently of the special parameters used for the computation. The second key result is that the attractor can be reconstructed from the recurrence plot. This means that it contains all topological information of the system under question in the limit of long time series. The graphical representation of the recurrences can also help to develop new algorithms and exploit specific structures. This feature has helped to obtain the third key result of this study. Based on recurrences to points which have the same ``recurrence structure'', it is possible to generate surrogates of the system which capture all relevant dynamical characteristics, such as entropies, dimensions and characteristic frequencies of the system. These so generated surrogates are shadowed by a trajectory of the system which starts at different initial conditions than the time series in question. They can be used then to test for complex synchronisation.
One of the most striking features of ecological systems is their ability to undergo sudden outbreaks in the population numbers of one or a small number of species. The similarity of outbreak characteristics, which is exhibited in totally different and unrelated (ecological) systems naturally leads to the question whether there are universal mechanisms underlying outbreak dynamics in Ecology. It will be shown into two case studies (dynamics of phytoplankton blooms under variable nutrients supply and spread of epidemics in networks of cities) that one explanation for the regular recurrence of outbreaks stems from the interaction of the natural systems with periodical variations of their environment. Natural aquatic systems like lakes offer very good examples for the annual recurrence of outbreaks in Ecology. The idea whether chaos is responsible for the irregular heights of outbreaks is central in the domain of ecological modeling. This question is investigated in the context of phytoplankton blooms. The dynamics of epidemics in networks of cities is a problem which offers many ecological and theoretical aspects. The coupling between the cities is introduced through their sizes and gives rise to a weighted network which topology is generated from the distribution of the city sizes. We examine the dynamics in this network and classified the different possible regimes. It could be shown that a single epidemiological model can be reduced to a one-dimensional map. We analyze in this context the dynamics in networks of weighted maps. The coupling is a saturation function which possess a parameter which can be interpreted as an effective temperature for the network. This parameter allows to vary continously the network topology from global coupling to hierarchical network. We perform bifurcation analysis of the global dynamics and succeed to construct an effective theory explaining very well the behavior of the system.
This thesis analyses synchronization phenomena occurring in large ensembles of interacting oscillatory units. In particular, the effects of nonisochronicity (frequency dependence on the oscillator's amplitude) on the macroscopic transition to synchronization are studied in detail. The new phenomena found (Anomalous Synchronization) are investigated in populations of oscillators as well as between oscillator's ensembles.
We calculate the additional carbon emissions as a result of the conversion of natural land in a process of urbanisation; and the change of carbon flows by “urbanised” ecosystems, when the atmospheric carbon is exported to the neighboring territories, from 1980 till 2050 for the eight regions of the world. As a scenario we use combined UN and demographic model′s prognoses for regional total and urban population growth. The calculations of urban areas dynamics are based on two models: the regression model and the Gamma-model. The urbanised area is sub-divided on built-up, „green“ (parks, etc.) and informal settlements (favelas) areas. The next step is to calculate the regional and world dynamics of carbon emission and export, and the annual total carbon balance. Both models give similar results with some quantitative differences. In the first model, the world annual emissions attain a maximum of 205 MtC/year between 2020-2030. Emissions will then slowly decrease. The maximum contributions are given by China and the Asia and Pacific regions. In the second model, world annual emissions increase to 1.25 GtC in 2005, beginning to decrease afterwards. If we compare the emission maximum with the annual emission caused by deforestation, 1.36GtC per year, then we can say that the role of urbanised territories (UT) is of a comparable magnitude. Regarding the world annual export of carbon by UT, we observe its monotonous growth by three times, from 24 MtC to 66 MtC in the first model, and from 249 MtC to 505 MtC in the second one. The latter, is therefore comparable to the amount of carbon transported by rivers into the ocean (196-537 MtC). By estimating the total balance we find that urbanisation shifts the total balance towards a “sink” state. The urbanisation is inhibited in the interval 2020-2030, and by 2050 the growth of urbanised areas would almost stop. Hence, the total emission of natural carbon at that stage will stabilise at the level of the 1980s (80 MtC per year). As estimated by the second model, the total balance, being almost constant until 2000, then starts to decrease at an almost constant rate. We can say that by the end of the XXI century, the total carbon balance will be equal to zero, when the exchange flows are fully balanced, and may even be negative, when the system begins to take up carbon from the atmosphere, i.e., becomes a “sink”.
My thesis is concerned with several new noise-induced phenomena in excitable neural models, especially those with FitzHugh-Nagumo dynamics. In these effects the fluctuations intrinsically present in any complex neural network play a constructive role and improve functionality. I report the occurrence of Vibrational Resonance in excitable systems. Both in an excitable electronic circuit and in the FitzHugh-Nagumo model, I show that an optimal amplitude of high-frequency driving enhances the response of an excitable system to a low-frequency signal. Additionally, the influence of additive noise and the interplay between Stochastic and Vibrational Resonance is analyzed. Further, I study systems which combine both oscillatory and excitable properties, and hence intrinsically possess two internal frequencies. I show that in such a system the effect of Stochastic Resonance can be amplified by an additional high-frequency signal which is in resonance with the oscillatory frequency. This amplification needs much lower noise intensities than for conventional Stochastic Resonance in excitable systems. I study frequency selectivity in noise-induced subthreshold signal processing in a system with many noise-supported stochastic attractors. I show that the response of the coupled elements at different noise levels can be significantly enhanced or reduced by forcing some elements into resonance with these new frequencies which correspond to appropriate phase-relations. A noise-induced phase transition to excitability is reported in oscillatory media with FitzHugh-Nagumo dynamics. This transition takes place via noise-induced stabilization of a deterministically unstable fixed point of the local dynamics, while the overall phase-space structure of the system is maintained. The joint action of coupling and noise leads to a different type of phase transition and results in a stabilization of the system. The resulting noise-induced regime is shown to display properties characteristic of excitable media, such as Stochastic Resonance and wave propagation. This effect thus allows the transmission of signals through an otherwise globally oscillating medium. In particular, these theoretical findings suggest a possible mechanism for suppressing undesirable global oscillations in neural networks (which are usually characteristic of abnormal medical conditions such as Parkinson′s disease or epilepsy), using the action of noise to restore excitability, which is the normal state of neuronal ensembles.
Concerns have been raised that anthropogenic climate change could lead to large-scale singular climate events, i.e., abrupt nonlinear climate changes with repercussions on regional to global scales. One central goal of this thesis is the development of models of two representative components of the climate system that could exhibit singular behavior: the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) and the Indian monsoon. These models are conceived so as to fulfill the main requirements of integrated assessment modeling, i.e., reliability, computational efficiency, transparency and flexibility. The model of the THC is an interhemispheric four-box model calibrated against data generated with a coupled climate model of intermediate complexity. It is designed to be driven by global mean temperature change which is translated into regional fluxes of heat and freshwater through a linear down-scaling procedure. Results of a large number of transient climate change simulations indicate that the reduced-form THC model is able to emulate key features of the behavior of comprehensive climate models such as the sensitivity of the THC to the amount, regional distribution and rate of change in the heat and freshwater fluxes. The Indian monsoon is described by a novel one-dimensional box model of the tropical atmosphere. It includes representations of the radiative and surface fluxes, the hydrological cycle and surface hydrology. Despite its high degree of idealization, the model satisfactorily captures relevant aspects of the observed monsoon dynamics, such as the annual course of precipitation and the onset and withdrawal of the summer monsoon. Also, the model exhibits the sensitivity to changes in greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol concentrations that are known from comprehensive models. A simplified version of the monsoon model is employed for the identification of changes in the qualitative system behavior against changes in boundary conditions. The most notable result is that under summer conditions a saddle-node bifurcation occurs at critical values of the planetary albedo or insolation. Furthermore, the system exhibits two stable equilibria: besides the wet summer monsoon, a stable state exists which is characterized by a weak hydrological cycle. These results are remarkable insofar, as they indicate that anthropogenic perturbations of the planetary albedo such as sulfur emissions and/or land-use changes could destabilize the Indian summer monsoon. The reduced-form THC model is employed in an exemplary integrated assessment application. Drawing on the conceptual and methodological framework of the tolerable windows approach, emissions corridors (i.e., admissible ranges of CO2- emissions) are derived that limit the risk of a THC collapse while considering expectations about the socio-economically acceptable pace of emissions reductions. Results indicate, for example, a large dependency of the width of the emissions corridor on climate and hydrological sensitivity: for low values of climate and/or hydrological sensitivity, the corridor boundaries are far from being transgressed by any plausible emissions scenario for the 21st century. In contrast, for high values of both quantities low non-intervention scenarios leave the corridor already in the early decades of the 21st century. This implies that if the risk of a THC collapse is to be kept low, business-as-usual paths would need to be abandoned within the next two decades. All in all, this thesis highlights the value of reduced-form modeling by presenting a number of applications of this class of models, ranging from sensitivity and bifurcation analysis to integrated assessment. The results achieved and conclusions drawn provide a useful contribution to the scientific and policy debate about the consequences of anthropogenic climate change and the long-term goals of climate protection. --- Anmerkung: Die Autorin ist Trägerin des von der Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Potsdam vergebenen Michelson-Preises für die beste Promotion des Jahres 2003/2004.
A polymer is a large molecule made up of many elementary chemical units, joined together by covalent bonds (for example, polyethylene). Polyelectrolytes (PELs) are polymer chains containing a certain amount of ionizable monomers. With their specific properties PELs acquire big importance in molecular and cell biology as well as in technology. Compared to neutral polymers the theory of PELs is less understood. In particular, this is valid for PELs in poor solvents. A poor solvent environment causes an effective attraction between monomers. Hence, for PELs in a poor solvent, there occurs a competition between attraction and repulsion. Strong or quenched PELs are completely dissociated at any accessible pH. The position of charges along the chain is fixed by chemical synthesis. On the other hand, in weak or annealed PELs dissociation of charges depends on solution pH. For the first time the simulation results have given direct evidence that at rather poor solvents an annealed PEL indeed undergoes a first-order phase transition when the chemical potential (solution pH) reaches at a certain value. The discontinuous transition occurs between a weakly charged compact globular structure and a strongly charged stretched configuration. At not too poor solvents theory predicts that globule would become unstable with respect to the formation of pearl-necklaces. The results show that pearl-necklaces exist in annealed PELs indeed. Furthermore, as predicted by theory, the simulation results have shown that annealed PELs display a sharp transition from a highly charged stretched state to a weakly charged globule at a critical salt concentration.
Die vorliegende Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit der Charakterisierung von Seismizität anhand von Erdbebenkatalogen. Es werden neue Verfahren der Datenanalyse entwickelt, die Aufschluss darüber geben sollen, ob der seismischen Dynamik ein stochastischer oder ein deterministischer Prozess zugrunde liegt und was daraus für die Vorhersagbarkeit starker Erdbeben folgt. Es wird gezeigt, dass seismisch aktive Regionen häufig durch nichtlinearen Determinismus gekennzeichent sind. Dies schließt zumindest die Möglichkeit einer Kurzzeitvorhersage ein. Das Auftreten seismischer Ruhe wird häufig als Vorläuferphaenomen für starke Erdbeben gedeutet. Es wird eine neue Methode präsentiert, die eine systematische raumzeitliche Kartierung seismischer Ruhephasen ermöglicht. Die statistische Signifikanz wird mit Hilfe des Konzeptes der Ersatzdaten bestimmt. Als Resultat erhält man deutliche Korrelationen zwischen seismischen Ruheperioden und starken Erdbeben. Gleichwohl ist die Signifikanz dafür nicht hoch genug, um eine Vorhersage im Sinne einer Aussage über den Ort, die Zeit und die Stärke eines zu erwartenden Hauptbebens zu ermöglichen.
This thesis presents new approaches to evolutions of binary black hole systems in numerical relativity. We analyze and compare evolutions from various physically motivated initial data sets, in particular presenting the first evolutions of Thin Sandwich data generated by the Meudon group. For the first time two different quasi-circular orbit initial data sequences are compared through fully 3d numerical evolutions: Puncture data and Thin Sandwich data (TSD) based on a helical killing vector ansatz. The two different sets are compared in terms of the physical quantities that can be measured from the numerical data, and in terms of their evolutionary behavior. The evolutions demonstrate that for the latter, "Meudon" datasets, the black holes do in fact orbit for a longer amount of time before they merge, in comparison with Puncture data from the same separation. This indicates they are potentially better estimates of quasi-circular orbit parameters. The merger times resulting from the numerical simulations are consistent with independent Post-Newtonian estimates that the final plunge phase of a black hole inspiral should take 60% of an orbit.
This work incorporates three treatises which are commonly concerned with a stochastic theory of the Lyapunov exponents. With the help of this theory universal scaling laws are investigated which appear in coupled chaotic and disordered systems. First, two continuous-time stochastic models for weakly coupled chaotic systems are introduced to study the scaling of the Lyapunov exponents with the coupling strength (coupling sensitivity of chaos). By means of the the Fokker-Planck formalism scaling relations are derived, which are confirmed by results of numerical simulations. Next, coupling sensitivity is shown to exist for coupled disordered chains, where it appears as a singular increase of the localization length. Numerical findings for coupled Anderson models are confirmed by analytic results for coupled continuous-space Schrödinger equations. The resulting scaling relation of the localization length resembles the scaling of the Lyapunov exponent of coupled chaotic systems. Finally, the statistics of the exponential growth rate of the linear oscillator with parametric noise are studied. It is shown that the distribution of the finite-time Lyapunov exponent deviates from a Gaussian one. By means of the generalized Lyapunov exponents the parameter range is determined where the non-Gaussian part of the distribution is significant and multiscaling becomes essential.
This thesis describes the development and application of the impacts module of the ICLIPS model, a global integrated assessment model of climate change. The presentation of the technical aspects of this model component is preceded by a discussion of the sociopolitical context for model-based integrated assessments, which defines important requirements for the specification of the model. Integrated assessment of climate change comprises a broad range of scientific efforts to support the decision-making about objectives and measures for climate policy, whereby many different approaches have been followed to provide policy-relevant information about climate impacts. Major challenges in this context are the large diversity of the relevant spatial and temporal scales, the multifactorial causation of many climate impacts', considerable scientific uncertainties, and the ambiguity associated with unavoidable normative evaluations. A hierarchical framework is presented for structuring climate impact assessments that reflects the evolution of their practice and of the underlying theory. Integrated assessment models of climate change (IAMs) are scientific tools that contain simplified representations of the relevant components of the coupled society-climate system. The major decision-analytical frameworks for IAMs are evaluated according to their ability to address important aspects of the pertinent social decision problem. The guardrail approach is presented as an inverse' framework for climate change decision support, which aims to identify the whole set of policy strategies that are compatible with a set of normatively specified constraints (guardrails'). This approach combines, to a certain degree, the scientific rigour and objectivity typical of predictive approaches with the ability to consider virtually all decision options that is at the core of optimization approaches. The ICLIPS model is described as the first IAM that implements the guardrail approach. The representation of climate impacts is a key concern in any IAM. A review of existing IAMs reveals large differences in the coverage of impact sectors, in the choice of the impact numeraire(s), in the consideration of non-climatic developments, including purposeful adaptation, in the handling of uncertainty, and in the inclusion of singular events. IAMs based on an inverse approach impose specific requirements to the representation of climate impacts. This representation needs to combine a level of detail and reliability that is sufficient for the specification of impact guardrails with the conciseness and efficiency that allows for an exploration of the complete domain of plausible climate protection strategies. Large-scale singular events can often be represented by dynamic reduced-form models. This approach, however, is less appropriate for regular impacts where the determination of policy-relevant results generally needs to consider the heterogeneity of climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors at the local or regional scale. Climate impact response functions (CIRFs) are identified as the most suitable reduced-form representation of regular climate impacts in the ICLIPS model. A CIRF depicts the aggregated response of a climate-sensitive system or sector as simulated by a spatially explicit sectoral impact model for a representative subset of plausible futures. In the CIRFs presented here, global mean temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration are used as predictors for global and regional impacts on natural vegetation, agricultural crop production, and water availability. Application of a pattern scaling technique makes it possible to consider the regional and seasonal patterns in the climate anomalies simulated by several general circulation models while ensuring the efficiency of the dynamic model components. Efforts to provide quantitative estimates of future climate impacts generally face a trade-off between the relevance of an indicator for stakeholders and the exactness with which it can be determined. A number of non-monetary aggregated impact indicators for the CIRFs is presented, which aim to strike the balance between these two conflicting goals while taking into account additional constraints of the ICLIPS modelling framework. Various types of impact diagrams are used for the visualization of CIRFs, each of which provides a different perspective on the impact result space. The sheer number of CIRFs computed for the ICLIPS model precludes their comprehensive presentation in this thesis. Selected results referring to changes in the distribution of biomes in different biogeographical regions, in the agricultural potential of various countries, and in the water availability in selected major catchments are discussed. The full set of CIRFs is accessible via the ICLIPS Impacts Tool, a graphical user interface that provides convenient access to more than 100,000 impact diagrams developed for the ICLIPS model. The technical aspects of the software are described as well as the accompanying database of CIRFs. The most important application of CIRFs is in inverse' mode, where they are used to translate impact guardrails into simultaneous constraints for variables from the optimizing ICLIPS climate-economy model. This translation is facilitated by algorithms for the computation of reachable climate domains and for the parameterized approximation of admissible climate windows derived from CIRFs. The comprehensive set of CIRFs, together with these algorithms, enables the ICLIPS model to flexibly explore sets of climate policy strategies that explicitly comply with impact guardrails specified in biophysical units. This feature is not found in any other intertemporally optimizing IAM. A guardrail analysis with the integrated ICLIPS model is described that applies selected CIRFs for ecosystem changes. So-called necessary carbon emission corridors' are determined for a default choice of normative constraints that limit global vegetation impacts as well as regional mitigation costs, and for systematic variations of these constraints. A brief discussion of recent developments in integrated assessment modelling of climate change connects the work presented here with related efforts.